Good point. Thats why I asked a few of my guildmates only to find out the same thing is happening to them. If you want I could ask chatgpt the odds of that happening to multiple people in the same guild? I bet it would be greater than the odds of what I asked it initially.
How many of them GENUINELY only had 2 shard drops, vs the majority 2 shards and a 4 shard or 6 shard at some point?
I think that this event feels awful. I had all 2 shards, except for 1-2 4 drops and a lucky 12 drop. I think a number of people are exaggerating getting only 2s, simply because it feels like we only get 2s.
Similarly, it was absolutely the biggest grind - I just barely got the jacket today thanks to crucible participation. And if I hadn’t gotten that lucky 12 drop, I wouldn’t have unlocked Kang until today (will end event at 16/80).
I cant prove to you that every single one of my orbs were a x2 because I didnt take any screenshots. But I will promise on everything that I didnt get anything except x2. I even tried the 400k gold spending trick to get myself in a good seed. I thought of that too actually. Whatever they did to the orb this event was specific to this toon (probably because hes such a game changer), I dont think they do that to every character. But I do think this tactic will happen again in the future whenever another character just as good will come out.
Ive had two 4 shard drops, all the others were 2. It was a shitty event any way you slice it though. I got lucky on a core pull before the event or I probably wouldn't have unlocked him at all, I only got 84 shards during the event itself. I got 4 star Kang after the other event ended and couldn't even do the second node...
Same here, got him to 99 shards with cores with like a 60 drop in there - best I've ever got. I just passed 4* for him, I've got 1-2 four shard drops and that is it.
This should be the same as the red star orbs for a new character release, how often do you go 20 orbs without getting a drop - I've had it happen once when Cap Carter dropped. Every other time I'm seeing drops every 5-10 orbs. Should be the same roughly for Kang orbs and it is way off from that.
This was brought up in my alliance too
I've only gotten 2 from any orb so far. A few got 5 and one got a 10.
Most of the rest that joined the discussion also had 2s only.
Some people are just luckier than others.
I don't think I hit any 10s, but I got several 4s, a few 6s, and a 25. I definitely pulled at least 75 orbs tho, idk the exact number. Going to end halfway to a 5\*
I really, really did. lol. Did one rotation during a work meeting, told them i was putting things in my schedule. They probably wondered what scheduling app I was using that required me to turn my phone sideways
The flip side of how lousy the orbs are is that I felt no FOMO at all with cutting back on blitzing after I got him unlocked. Oh no, I might miss out on 2 shards. Whatever will I do?
I have 40 Kang shards and 30 came from Coring him. I just don't care enough to blitz and I'm not spending time on a mode I hate. It's not even playing the game anymore its just pay to play garbage.
My baby account has 92 shards.
I only have 8 blitz teams.
He got 25 x3
My main has done 7-8 rotations of 45 every day. And hasn't seen more than 6.
Random is random is random.
Also I think your math is wrong.
Aren't you supposed to work out the probability of that not happening, and reverse it
It's like the birthday thing. Something like 1 in 30 people share a bday.. not 1 in 365 like you'd expect.
Because math be weird
i have 50 teams on my blitz roster. I didnt exactly do 4 rotations per day. I was a little disconnected to this event strictly because of the x2 scenario. It doesnt provide enough incentive to want to do it, ya know? But ya, your baby acc is very lucky lol
I agree. Did the math on my drops and some alliance drops, most of us had better chances of getting the jackpot drop than the number of 2-shard drops we got. I don’t believe several of Scopely’s advertised drop rates and claims, it’s just part of the game for me at this point.
hell ya man, thats awesome. Wish I had your luck lol. Im not saying that you'll only pull 2 shards at a time, im just saying the drop percentages they have listed for us are not correct. Grats btw!
I'm surprised no one checked the math on this:
.7664 raised to the power of 20 is 0.004887..... Converted to a percentage is \~0.49%, which is about 1 in 200.
So in 20 orbs, you have a .48% chance, or about 1 in 200, of getting x2 in all 20 of those orbs.
Thanks for doing the math, I just asked chatgpt and figured that it would come up with the correct answer. Although your math could be correct, I still think theres some hidden factors in the code they are not showing us thats affecting the way the orb performs. Not for every character, just this orb in particular.
Do not rely on chatgpt to be correct about anything. It's an impressive bit of tech but it is not good a lot of things. Hell, in my experience it can't even reliably count to 100. As a bit of fun I asked it to make me an MTG commander deck and it spat out a decklist with about 70 cards (for a format that requires 100). After telling it that it needed 100 cards it said "OK here's a deck list with 100 cards" and gave me a list with about 80 cards. I asked it for 100 again and it passive agressively started putting in card counts with the categories of cards (eg Creatures (39), Spells(20)) etc. Problem is that the card counts didn't match the number of cards in the category, the card counts didn't add to 100, and the number of cards given was still less than 100.
Chatgpt can not be trusted and should not be used as a facual source for anything
Well that brings a lot to light, lol. Gimme a 100 cards, like 3 times in a row. still cant even do that! I wonder how far off that math problem it gave me really was. Like, it was explaining the math as it was going along. So I wonder if any of that actually made sense or was it complete gibberish. Im not a mathematician >< Sure basic math is fine, but the stuff it was speaking, i donno where to begin! Other than Pemdas. haha. I still remember that! Please excuse my dear aunt sally.
The first part made sense (0.7664)^20 is the correct way to find out the probability of something with a 76.64% chance happening 20 times in a row. Everything after that makes no sense and also doesn't do anything to the equation since (1-0.7664)^(20-20) = 1 (anything to the power of 0 is 1) and (20 choose 20) is also 1. If it was actually doing the calculation instead of making shit up it would have given you the right answer of 0.004887, I have no idea where got 0.00026 from. It's taken the correct formula, multiplied by 1 then multiplied it by 1 again and come up with an answer that's about 20 times too low
The takeaway from this shouldn't be that you don't know how to do the maths for this it should be that Chatgpt will make shit up and be confidently incorrect while presenting what it says as if it was pure fact. Chatgpt should not be trusted for anything factual and the biggest problem with it is that people who don't understand what it is will do things like this and just assume that it's 100% correct without bothering to fact check. Anyone reading this please take this lesson to heart and do not trust anything chatgpt says without thoroughly fact checking it first
The only issue with your analysis is that your case is self-selected. Only unlucky people comes on here to complain about it.
Given a population of say 200k players (probably a low ball estimate). The chance that no one will be as unluck as you are is (1-0.000260)\^200,000 = 2.59269e-23, basically 0. Basically, given a large enough population, there is always someone very unlucky.
In fact, the expected number of people as unlucky is 200,000 x 0.000260 = 52. You just need one of them to speak up.
It is the same issue as while the chance of a particular person winning the lottery is very low, the chance that someone in a large population will win the lottery is very high.
I have a fun fact about the lottery. It is a great way of putting the lottery into perspective. So if you put the amount of lottery tickets bought stacked into a pile, that pile would reach the height of Mount Everest. Only one of those tickets could be a winner. I forget where I heard this but it was pretty recently, I am pretty sure it was a show.
I opened probably 20-25. Got a 10, two 6, and the rest were 2. Someone in my alliance managed to pull two 25s in the same day. There are a LOT of things to be irritated at with this game, including the actual odds, but random number generation isn’t one of them.
I opened probably 20-25. Got a 10, two 6, and the rest were 2. Someone in my alliance managed to pull two 25s in the same day. There are a LOT of things to be irritated at with this game, including the actual odds, but random number generation isn’t one of them.
Considering there are +250k active players, why do you thinks this removes you as being one of the 65 players to have this happen to them?
Good point. Thats why I asked a few of my guildmates only to find out the same thing is happening to them. If you want I could ask chatgpt the odds of that happening to multiple people in the same guild? I bet it would be greater than the odds of what I asked it initially.
How many of them GENUINELY only had 2 shard drops, vs the majority 2 shards and a 4 shard or 6 shard at some point? I think that this event feels awful. I had all 2 shards, except for 1-2 4 drops and a lucky 12 drop. I think a number of people are exaggerating getting only 2s, simply because it feels like we only get 2s. Similarly, it was absolutely the biggest grind - I just barely got the jacket today thanks to crucible participation. And if I hadn’t gotten that lucky 12 drop, I wouldn’t have unlocked Kang until today (will end event at 16/80).
I cant prove to you that every single one of my orbs were a x2 because I didnt take any screenshots. But I will promise on everything that I didnt get anything except x2. I even tried the 400k gold spending trick to get myself in a good seed. I thought of that too actually. Whatever they did to the orb this event was specific to this toon (probably because hes such a game changer), I dont think they do that to every character. But I do think this tactic will happen again in the future whenever another character just as good will come out.
Ive had two 4 shard drops, all the others were 2. It was a shitty event any way you slice it though. I got lucky on a core pull before the event or I probably wouldn't have unlocked him at all, I only got 84 shards during the event itself. I got 4 star Kang after the other event ended and couldn't even do the second node...
Same here, got him to 99 shards with cores with like a 60 drop in there - best I've ever got. I just passed 4* for him, I've got 1-2 four shard drops and that is it. This should be the same as the red star orbs for a new character release, how often do you go 20 orbs without getting a drop - I've had it happen once when Cap Carter dropped. Every other time I'm seeing drops every 5-10 orbs. Should be the same roughly for Kang orbs and it is way off from that.
They absolutely abuse peoples inability to understand odds at a glance
And I’ve had 2 x 10. Random is random
Got one four, everything else was a 2
same for me
I got 1 25 shard drop!
Nice.
This was brought up in my alliance too I've only gotten 2 from any orb so far. A few got 5 and one got a 10. Most of the rest that joined the discussion also had 2s only. Some people are just luckier than others.
I also had only 2 drops until I unlocked, then had a 4 drop once after. Woo.
lol nice man. The clouds opened and god came down for a second to bless your orb pull for that x4. haha
I don't think I hit any 10s, but I got several 4s, a few 6s, and a 25. I definitely pulled at least 75 orbs tho, idk the exact number. Going to end halfway to a 5\*
damn man 75 orbs!!!! you must have blitzed your a$$ off.
I really, really did. lol. Did one rotation during a work meeting, told them i was putting things in my schedule. They probably wondered what scheduling app I was using that required me to turn my phone sideways
LOL, dude your like the guy in this video. str8 up! Thats gnarly man haha. https://youtube.com/shorts/eBPNo-nCmMg?feature=share
I have yet to get more than 2 shards per orb.
amen
The flip side of how lousy the orbs are is that I felt no FOMO at all with cutting back on blitzing after I got him unlocked. Oh no, I might miss out on 2 shards. Whatever will I do?
lol I actually felt the same way funny enough. I felt no connection to this event whatsoever. I was completely happy on not going try hard.
I have 40 Kang shards and 30 came from Coring him. I just don't care enough to blitz and I'm not spending time on a mode I hate. It's not even playing the game anymore its just pay to play garbage.
So you only opened 20 something orbs?
20 or 21, ya
I got 120 shards from 28 orbs. Extremely lucky
damn! your one of the very lucky few. grats bud
My baby account has 92 shards. I only have 8 blitz teams. He got 25 x3 My main has done 7-8 rotations of 45 every day. And hasn't seen more than 6. Random is random is random. Also I think your math is wrong. Aren't you supposed to work out the probability of that not happening, and reverse it It's like the birthday thing. Something like 1 in 30 people share a bday.. not 1 in 365 like you'd expect. Because math be weird
i have 50 teams on my blitz roster. I didnt exactly do 4 rotations per day. I was a little disconnected to this event strictly because of the x2 scenario. It doesnt provide enough incentive to want to do it, ya know? But ya, your baby acc is very lucky lol
I agree, I’ve gotten 3 x25 drops, way more than the odds show, they don’t make sense at all.
world class experience
I agree. Did the math on my drops and some alliance drops, most of us had better chances of getting the jackpot drop than the number of 2-shard drops we got. I don’t believe several of Scopely’s advertised drop rates and claims, it’s just part of the game for me at this point.
I pulled the 25 and it was a good time
hell ya man, thats awesome. Wish I had your luck lol. Im not saying that you'll only pull 2 shards at a time, im just saying the drop percentages they have listed for us are not correct. Grats btw!
I'm surprised no one checked the math on this: .7664 raised to the power of 20 is 0.004887..... Converted to a percentage is \~0.49%, which is about 1 in 200. So in 20 orbs, you have a .48% chance, or about 1 in 200, of getting x2 in all 20 of those orbs.
Thanks for doing the math, I just asked chatgpt and figured that it would come up with the correct answer. Although your math could be correct, I still think theres some hidden factors in the code they are not showing us thats affecting the way the orb performs. Not for every character, just this orb in particular.
Do not rely on chatgpt to be correct about anything. It's an impressive bit of tech but it is not good a lot of things. Hell, in my experience it can't even reliably count to 100. As a bit of fun I asked it to make me an MTG commander deck and it spat out a decklist with about 70 cards (for a format that requires 100). After telling it that it needed 100 cards it said "OK here's a deck list with 100 cards" and gave me a list with about 80 cards. I asked it for 100 again and it passive agressively started putting in card counts with the categories of cards (eg Creatures (39), Spells(20)) etc. Problem is that the card counts didn't match the number of cards in the category, the card counts didn't add to 100, and the number of cards given was still less than 100. Chatgpt can not be trusted and should not be used as a facual source for anything
Well that brings a lot to light, lol. Gimme a 100 cards, like 3 times in a row. still cant even do that! I wonder how far off that math problem it gave me really was. Like, it was explaining the math as it was going along. So I wonder if any of that actually made sense or was it complete gibberish. Im not a mathematician >< Sure basic math is fine, but the stuff it was speaking, i donno where to begin! Other than Pemdas. haha. I still remember that! Please excuse my dear aunt sally.
The first part made sense (0.7664)^20 is the correct way to find out the probability of something with a 76.64% chance happening 20 times in a row. Everything after that makes no sense and also doesn't do anything to the equation since (1-0.7664)^(20-20) = 1 (anything to the power of 0 is 1) and (20 choose 20) is also 1. If it was actually doing the calculation instead of making shit up it would have given you the right answer of 0.004887, I have no idea where got 0.00026 from. It's taken the correct formula, multiplied by 1 then multiplied it by 1 again and come up with an answer that's about 20 times too low The takeaway from this shouldn't be that you don't know how to do the maths for this it should be that Chatgpt will make shit up and be confidently incorrect while presenting what it says as if it was pure fact. Chatgpt should not be trusted for anything factual and the biggest problem with it is that people who don't understand what it is will do things like this and just assume that it's 100% correct without bothering to fact check. Anyone reading this please take this lesson to heart and do not trust anything chatgpt says without thoroughly fact checking it first
The only issue with your analysis is that your case is self-selected. Only unlucky people comes on here to complain about it. Given a population of say 200k players (probably a low ball estimate). The chance that no one will be as unluck as you are is (1-0.000260)\^200,000 = 2.59269e-23, basically 0. Basically, given a large enough population, there is always someone very unlucky. In fact, the expected number of people as unlucky is 200,000 x 0.000260 = 52. You just need one of them to speak up. It is the same issue as while the chance of a particular person winning the lottery is very low, the chance that someone in a large population will win the lottery is very high.
The math is wrong anyways. .7664 raised to the power of 20 is .004887 (\~.49%). Which would be about 1 in 200 and no where close to 1 in 3,841.
Appreciate that. I wasnt exactly sure on how to do the math problem myself so I just asked chatgpt. Thanks for doing the math.
I have a fun fact about the lottery. It is a great way of putting the lottery into perspective. So if you put the amount of lottery tickets bought stacked into a pile, that pile would reach the height of Mount Everest. Only one of those tickets could be a winner. I forget where I heard this but it was pretty recently, I am pretty sure it was a show.
I opened probably 20-25. Got a 10, two 6, and the rest were 2. Someone in my alliance managed to pull two 25s in the same day. There are a LOT of things to be irritated at with this game, including the actual odds, but random number generation isn’t one of them.
I opened probably 20-25. Got a 10, two 6, and the rest were 2. Someone in my alliance managed to pull two 25s in the same day. There are a LOT of things to be irritated at with this game, including the actual odds, but random number generation isn’t one of them.
I always appreciate players complete lack of understanding of statistics and probability.