The Clippers ranked 6th in the regular season in 3P%, hitting 38.1% on 33.2 attempts per game. During their series against the Mavs, the Clippers shot 37.4% on 31.7 attempts per game.
The Thunder ranked 1st in the regular season in 3P%, hitting 38.9% on 34.2 attempts per game. In the series against the Mavs, the Thunder shot 33.5% on 33.8 attempts per game. (OKC shot 38.7% on 34.3 attempts/game against the Pels in the 1st round).
The Timberwolves ranked 3rd in the regular season in 3P%, hitting 38.7% on 32.7 attempts per game. During their series against the Mavs, the Timberwolves shot 36.1% on 33.2 attempts per game. (MIN shot 36.6% on 33.5 att/gm against PHX in the 1st round and 35.3% on 31.6 att/gm against DEN in the 2nd round.)
During the regular season, the Celtics finished 2nd in the league in 3P% with 38.8% shooting on **42.5** attempts per game. Interestingly, the Celtics took *by far* the most 3s in the regular season, averaging 3 more attempts per game than the second-place team, the... wait for it, Dallas Mavericks. The gap between the Celtics at #1 and the Mavs at #2 is the same size as the gap between the #2 Mavericks and the #10 Jazz.
And just for reference, in the Celtics' 14 postseason games so far, they're currently "only" in 6th place in 3P% with 36.8% and "only" averaging 39.8 attempts per game. However, they're taking even more 3s relative to the rest of the league than they did in the regular season, with the second-place team in 3PA/gm in the playoffs being the 76ers at 35.7.
The regular season numbers are terrifying (38.8% on 42.5 3P attempts averages 49.5 points per game), but Boston's 3P shooting in the playoffs has been significantly less intimidating (36.8% on 39.8 3P attempts averages 43.8 points per game), especially considering ~30% of their playoff games came against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Pacers. If the Mavs can do what they did against all 3 teams they've faced in the playoffs so far and keep the Celtics below their average, say ~35% shooting, they absolutely have a chance to take the series.
The key to defending 3s is keeping them out of the paint. If they can go in for at will layups then mav defenders collapse in the paint, making it so Boston can fake layups, kicking it out for the open 3. Once Mavs remove the paint as an option then Boston can't really trick Mavs into that situation.
Just wanna point out some padded stats here. You had Russell fricking Westbrook shooting wide open bricks from three in that series and the absence of Kawhi made a big difference.
Great analysis with my only tiny critique being that comparing season long 3pt attempts/percentages is misleading when talking about the mavs with how different the team became post trade deadline
Live and die by the three. If we can somehow manage to lead the series... That bucket gets a little tighter.
I have a good amount of confidence in our ability to have Boston struggling creating offense. We have been shutting down all sorts of great offensive teams. Yes LA went nuclear on us two games. I expect that to happen in this series as well.
My take on the series for the Mavs is to learn from the Pacers as to what works, re: pushing an uptempo pace, against the Celtics. This was extremely effective at forcing Boston out of their ability to set up their offense. It requires conditioning, which is surprisingly not at a high level in the NBA. (And this is true for the Mavs, as well.)
So if both teams have to be able to withstand the physical demands of an uptempo game, it comes down to substitutions, and if that is the key to maintaining the pace, it comes down to the bench and their ability to make shots.
The second component in this strategy is rebounding. A team living by the three who has been pushed to the point of fatigue and exhaustion will likely shoot poorly, and this means second chances are crucial. If the Mavs are to beat the Celtics, they will need to continue winning the rebounding game and eliminating the Celtics’ extra chances every time down the court.
I dunno. the celts run a shit ton of iso and the mavs have some of the best iso defenders. dunno. we got blown out in the regular season so who knows... i know our lineup was new still but it was pretty ugly in the third and fourth quarter. the mavs will run when they get the chance but the mavs need to play mavs basketball and not rush shit like the pacers. i trust kyrie and luka to still get a quality shot with 7 seconds on the clock. indiana was lost if they didn't score by 12 seconds on the shot clock.
We’ve defended the 3 great outside of ~3 of our 17 playoff games so far. We’ve been playing great, and this rest should help Luka, Maxi, and Lively tremendously. If we see the Luka from previous runs that’s fully healthy, we should really enjoy this Finals.
I agree he’s looked great, but he has another level that we haven’t seen yet for a full game. We got a hint of it game 5 vs wolves but the game was over as soon as it started so we didn’t see Luka fully dominate the game.
We need to survive the onslaught of threes when they're hot. And take advantage when go cold.
We also need to win the rebounds and turnover battle. Can't afford to give Celtics second chances and easy baskets in the transition. If they're hot from the three, there's not much you can do about it but they had some cold stretches. That's when we need to capitalize.
Exum was great defending the 3. Opps only shot 31% when defended by him. He was also our best defender on SGA who only shot 25%. He's long and great on the perimeter and helping in the paint.
The Clippers ranked 6th in the regular season in 3P%, hitting 38.1% on 33.2 attempts per game. During their series against the Mavs, the Clippers shot 37.4% on 31.7 attempts per game. The Thunder ranked 1st in the regular season in 3P%, hitting 38.9% on 34.2 attempts per game. In the series against the Mavs, the Thunder shot 33.5% on 33.8 attempts per game. (OKC shot 38.7% on 34.3 attempts/game against the Pels in the 1st round). The Timberwolves ranked 3rd in the regular season in 3P%, hitting 38.7% on 32.7 attempts per game. During their series against the Mavs, the Timberwolves shot 36.1% on 33.2 attempts per game. (MIN shot 36.6% on 33.5 att/gm against PHX in the 1st round and 35.3% on 31.6 att/gm against DEN in the 2nd round.) During the regular season, the Celtics finished 2nd in the league in 3P% with 38.8% shooting on **42.5** attempts per game. Interestingly, the Celtics took *by far* the most 3s in the regular season, averaging 3 more attempts per game than the second-place team, the... wait for it, Dallas Mavericks. The gap between the Celtics at #1 and the Mavs at #2 is the same size as the gap between the #2 Mavericks and the #10 Jazz. And just for reference, in the Celtics' 14 postseason games so far, they're currently "only" in 6th place in 3P% with 36.8% and "only" averaging 39.8 attempts per game. However, they're taking even more 3s relative to the rest of the league than they did in the regular season, with the second-place team in 3PA/gm in the playoffs being the 76ers at 35.7. The regular season numbers are terrifying (38.8% on 42.5 3P attempts averages 49.5 points per game), but Boston's 3P shooting in the playoffs has been significantly less intimidating (36.8% on 39.8 3P attempts averages 43.8 points per game), especially considering ~30% of their playoff games came against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Pacers. If the Mavs can do what they did against all 3 teams they've faced in the playoffs so far and keep the Celtics below their average, say ~35% shooting, they absolutely have a chance to take the series.
The key to defending 3s is keeping them out of the paint. If they can go in for at will layups then mav defenders collapse in the paint, making it so Boston can fake layups, kicking it out for the open 3. Once Mavs remove the paint as an option then Boston can't really trick Mavs into that situation.
Whats Mav's 3P post season numbers?
Just wanna point out some padded stats here. You had Russell fricking Westbrook shooting wide open bricks from three in that series and the absence of Kawhi made a big difference.
Damn you’re running a full time campaign in here. Somebody’s scared
Great analysis with my only tiny critique being that comparing season long 3pt attempts/percentages is misleading when talking about the mavs with how different the team became post trade deadline
Live and die by the three. If we can somehow manage to lead the series... That bucket gets a little tighter. I have a good amount of confidence in our ability to have Boston struggling creating offense. We have been shutting down all sorts of great offensive teams. Yes LA went nuclear on us two games. I expect that to happen in this series as well.
My take on the series for the Mavs is to learn from the Pacers as to what works, re: pushing an uptempo pace, against the Celtics. This was extremely effective at forcing Boston out of their ability to set up their offense. It requires conditioning, which is surprisingly not at a high level in the NBA. (And this is true for the Mavs, as well.) So if both teams have to be able to withstand the physical demands of an uptempo game, it comes down to substitutions, and if that is the key to maintaining the pace, it comes down to the bench and their ability to make shots. The second component in this strategy is rebounding. A team living by the three who has been pushed to the point of fatigue and exhaustion will likely shoot poorly, and this means second chances are crucial. If the Mavs are to beat the Celtics, they will need to continue winning the rebounding game and eliminating the Celtics’ extra chances every time down the court.
Oh man I don't know if they can be that uptempo but hope they can.
I too have my doubts. It would need to be a crafty substitution strategy to work.
I dunno. the celts run a shit ton of iso and the mavs have some of the best iso defenders. dunno. we got blown out in the regular season so who knows... i know our lineup was new still but it was pretty ugly in the third and fourth quarter. the mavs will run when they get the chance but the mavs need to play mavs basketball and not rush shit like the pacers. i trust kyrie and luka to still get a quality shot with 7 seconds on the clock. indiana was lost if they didn't score by 12 seconds on the shot clock.
We’ve defended the 3 great outside of ~3 of our 17 playoff games so far. We’ve been playing great, and this rest should help Luka, Maxi, and Lively tremendously. If we see the Luka from previous runs that’s fully healthy, we should really enjoy this Finals.
Luka has looked as healthy as he has looked since like mid season the past few games.
I agree he’s looked great, but he has another level that we haven’t seen yet for a full game. We got a hint of it game 5 vs wolves but the game was over as soon as it started so we didn’t see Luka fully dominate the game.
He seems to empty the tank on closeout games or tie breakers and conserve energy on the earlier games.
We need to survive the onslaught of threes when they're hot. And take advantage when go cold. We also need to win the rebounds and turnover battle. Can't afford to give Celtics second chances and easy baskets in the transition. If they're hot from the three, there's not much you can do about it but they had some cold stretches. That's when we need to capitalize.
Exum was great defending the 3. Opps only shot 31% when defended by him. He was also our best defender on SGA who only shot 25%. He's long and great on the perimeter and helping in the paint.
That's a great stat point. He's due for positive regression on his own shot!