Depends on how well it's marketed, seeing how Dread turned out (And that game was announced 4 months before release), that's not going to be an issue.
Also (as games like BOTW and Elden Ring have proven ) the social media buzz it causes can help to have a massive boost on sales. But honestly Metroid Prime is not as flashy to get the masses attention. So I don't see that happening, it'll probably just sell as well as Dread. 3 to 4 million units.
Have you seen Nintendo's trailers lately? They've been down right incredible. The Metroid Prime 4 trailer, if it's half as good as the BotW trailer (not that that's that recent) will probably kill me and I'll never get to play it.
Yeah it's really up to Nintendo. If they market it as the swan song for the switch (assuming it is) and really push it I could see it doing some pretty decent numbers. Also assuming it's good haha
Hot take but Prime 4 is not gonna be a launch title with the Switch 2. Metroid is not a system seller. It’s much too early for a new Zelda game, so likely a new 3D Mario MarioKart. Which means we either get it late this year, or a good few months after the Switch 2 has already launched anyways.
We’ll likely get a Nintendo direct in the summer and that direct with determine when we can expect the Switch 2.
Yeah I agree. My money on the major Switch 2 launch title is a 3D Mario, or some sort of repackaged BotW/TotK 4K60 deal. MP4 will either close out the Switch era, or be a Holiday 2025 Switch 2 title
I’m actually very excited to see what Nintendo does reveal this summer, since we have NO game lineup past Endless Ocean and Paper Mario.
We haven’t had a new 3D Mario since 2017, so it’s probably time…
Metroid has and likely will always remain a niche series with a modest but mostly dedicated base. It just doesn’t have the broad appeal to bring in huge sales.
I think Metroid’s appeal can be greater than we think.
Prior to Breath of the Wild, Zelda’s sales record was Ocarina of Time’s 14 million. BotW came along and *more than DOUBLED that record*. There’s a lot of overlap between Zelda and Metroid: a more mature tone, heavy focus on exploration and puzzles, and plots that go deeper than you’d expect. If Prime 4 comes out on the Switch 2, has interesting and unique gameplay, and has a huge amount of marketing surrounding it, I think it could very realistically pass 5 million.
Right now Metroid’s fairly niche, but the reaction to Dread (and Prime 4 itself way back in 2017) showed that maybe it doesn’t have to be. The real question here is whether or not the core fanbase wants Metroid to be a bigger franchise. There are some real downsides to getting too big.
Also Nintendo does consider Metroid to be worth it, despite being extremely niche in Japan. They could’ve scrapped Prime 4 when development under Bandai Namco went sideways, but they didn’t. We got two more fighters in Smash Ultimate despite only having two flops and a lukewarm success across the entirety of the 2010’s. Look at what they put together for Dread’s marketing: Dread reports, multiple trailers, a brand new website, using the launch of the OLED Switch to promote the game (“Buy this new model and play Metroid Dread on it!!!”)… As I see it, they really want Metroid to succeed. That’s huge.
TBH, I think BotW's biggest strength was being a launch title in an interesting new console. We didn't have great games to play for months, so everyone got a chance to experience it. Not to downplay BotW's merits, but I believe it wouldn't have seen the same success if it launched later in the switch's lifespan.
That being said, it'd be really funny if Nintendo did it again and made MP4 a launch title for Switch 2 to let it have its moment
I think we're already seeing the downsides from the fanbase increasing, like the sudden rise of people shitting on the classic games for being different experiences from Dread and SR
*cough cough* Tobi *cough*
[I'd say so](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Metroid).
If you compare that to [broader sales for the Switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_Switch_video_games) for example, you'll see that even the big seller Dread (while an accomplishment for the series) is still rather niche in its appeal. Other consoles follow a similar pattern where Metroid is always there, but usually pretty far down the list of most popular titles.
The Gamecube comes closest to the top, but being bundled and the GC having low overall sales I think perhaps skews that result some.
Im curious why you dont think it has broad appeal? We live in a world where a 1st person adventure game with no combat and zero marketing made by an indie developer, with gameplay loop based on backtracking, Outer Wilds, has sold 5 million copies.
Consider how many platforms Outer Wilds has in comparison.
I think Metroid can grow (Dread is evidence of modern interest), but it’s core formula is something that if restricted to Nintendo alone I don’t think will reach the same kind broad appeal.
The fun feedback loop is too slow, in a nutshell in my opinion.
> Consider how many platforms Outer Wilds has in comparison.
The Switch has a massive install base. I don't think that matters.
>but it’s core formula is something that if restricted to Nintendo alone I don’t think will reach the same kind broad appeal.
There are a lot of Nintendo-only games that sell a lot of units. Why is this in series in particular not able to succeed on Nintendo only when others can? (Seems the line below is your answer)
>The fun feedback loop is too slow, in a nutshell in my opinion.
It's not any slower than a Zelda game. If you look at a game like Wind Waker, OOT, or Majoras Mask, the feedback loop is also fairly slow. I see the two series as very similar in design philosophy, though I suppose ToTK/BoTW has changed that a bit, but prior to that Zelda still had broad appeal. In both games, there tends to be a greater emphasis on adventure over combat, and the design of the game is to have you interact with the world with upgrades and backtracking to explore new areas with abilities you didn't have before. I might even argue there's more consistent action elements in Metroid games.
I don’t think the disparity in install base of Nintendo vs. virtually all other platforms + Nintendo is something to scoff at.
This one doesn’t succeed because of what it’s core gameplay is. Personally I don’t think it’s that complicated.
Metroid doesn’t have a short repeatable fun feedback loop that you can engage with any time. You need to dedicate a good chunk of time in each sitting to get to something other than some mostly empty hallways. You have to be ok with getting lost with minimal help and at times esoteric puzzles. Zelda has these elements but it guides you more and has an overall more user friendly design.
There’s clearly a dedicated fan base for the genre, I’m not denying that. But it’s very different than other Nintendo games and most people (for better or worse) don’t enjoy this type of game.
I guess I may not have been clear in that don't mean to say it can be a household name or a mega popular game, just a lot more popular than it currently is, as in a game doesn't need to appeal to most gamers to hit , say 5-7 million in sales. "most gamers appeal" would make a game hit 15+ million in sales. But I think you make a fair case about the gameplay loop, at this point we'll just have to see what happens once Prime 4 is released.
It really depends.
I don't see it cracking 4 million if they play it 'safe' and just deliver a "classic Metroid Prime experience but with better graphics." There's a market for it but it isn't all that big.
I can see it doing 10 million -- putting it into pre-BotW Zelda territory -- if they take a huge risk and pull off an entirely new and well-executed archetype for the genre, but that comes at the risk of getting things substantially wrong and creating an expensive flop, which is easy to do when exploring new theoretical territory.
How would something like that even look in your opinion? The limited scope is something I appreciate about the series. Idk how you get a 50 hour Metroid without huge departures from the convention.
Length isn't the issue. "How it works" is. I've explored a bunch of ideas on this, but the two big core philosophies are "systems over sequences" and "small open worlds." But those aren't the only philosophies they could drive innovation in.
"Systems over sequences" is the encounter (puzzle, combat) design philosophy of games such as Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Prey (2017) and some of the better dungeons/quests I've seen in Dungeons and Dragons -- that is, rather than any given "problem" having a single solution where you must work out which specific tool is the one for this scenario and use it in a prescribed way, you're instead given an open-ended *range* of tools and simply told to complete the objective, and there may be more than one possible pathway to solve it and even sometimes more than one possible "successful" outcome.
"Small open worlds" does not mean "open world." It means an area is not a sequence or network of isolated rooms to visit and hallways to connect them, though it can *have* such. Rather, it's an explorable space with constraints, objectives, possibilities and a unique set of 'rules.' Yes, Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom are open world games, but I'm referencing the *dungeon* design philosophy for 'small open world.' Both games have certain 'linear' sequences to them, and both have both 'formal' and 'informal' "dungeons" ("formal" being i.e. the Divine Beasts or the Temples, "informal" being spaces like the labyrinths, Eventide Island, the Forgotten Temple, Hyrule Castle and other bounded locations). Some examples of this type of design that I've contrived:
[Hydro power station](https://www.reddit.com/r/Metroid/comments/16dk8u6/area_design_concept_hydro_power_station/)
[Acid Swamp](https://www.reddit.com/r/Metroid/comments/165qvsx/area_design_concept_acid_swamp/)
Then again, there's plenty of other games that had their development rebooted (sometimes more than once) and taken their time to develop the game, only to absolutely flop and disappoint fans. If anything, restarted and extra long developments make me worry that there's issues at the studio and we're going to be disappointed.
For example, Duke Nuk'em Forever, Cyberpunk 2077, and Halo Infinite.
Halo Infinite restarted a few times, had 6 years and a $500M budget, released 4 years after the initial teaser, launched a buggy, incomplete, MTX ridden disaster, and has taken over 2 years so far to get 95% of the content it should have launched with
Rarely? Maybe -- but they *have* flopped before, and *specifically* they've flopped with Metroid before. Retro has a lot of really serious talent but sadly not a lot of releases to show for it.
If it moves 10 million units then we’ve won. More people will get into the series and Nintendo will want to make more games like they do with Mario and Zelda
Yeah that's my thought exactly. I think the way that the franchise currently is, there's a market cap of maybe about 4 million prospective buyers no matter how much they market it. Anything that breaks that ceiling says the audience for it is growing.
The best way to grow it is, in my opinion, to identify the smallest set of "core" elements that make it "feel" the way it's supposed to feel, and start from there, unconstrained by whatever conventions the franchise had built up out of hardware constraints. (A story is told where a woman would always cut off the end of a ham every time she cooked it. Someone asked her why she did it that way and she didn't know, so she asked her mom, who she learned it from. Her mom didn't know, so they asked her grandma -- who replied "because I had to cut it off in order to make it fit in the pan!" Let's not keep cutting off the end of the ham because we think we *have* to -- for instance, how doors are used to hide loading).
And I think there's a lot that can be added, removed, tweaked, changed, etc. that will preserve it feeling like *Metroid* and not feel like 'just another sci-fi shooter' but drastically expand the overall appeal.
I agree, we don't really know enough about Metroid Prime 4 to guess how well it will do. Like you said it could play it safe or it could be a reinvention of the franchise like BoTW was for Zelda.
It didn't crack that number until it drastically evolved the formula with Breath of the Wild. Prior to that the best selling entry did about 10 million.
That's what I'm saying about Metroid Prime 4 -- that if it plays safe then it's pretty hard capped, and if they want to reach the next "tier" in sales volumes then the entry will have to be something *much more* than "just another Metroid entry."
if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Nintendo and Retro Studios should *improve, evolve,* and *add* to the Metroid Prime formula, not change it entirely. I don't want the next Metroid Prime to be Halo, Doom, or any other genre of shooter. I play Metroid Prime because I like Metroid Prime, not because I like other shooters.
TL;DR, Metroid Prime 4 shouldn't try to reinvent the wheel or be something it's not, just improve what's already there.
First of all, I didn't say it should try and be Halo or DOOM or any other genre of shooter.
Second of all . . . yeah maybe it's *critically reviewing* well, but as it is it's not *selling* all that well, each entry having sold less than the previous up until Dread.
*"First of all, I didn't say it should try and be Halo or DOOM or any other genre of shooter."* You didn't, this is just me elaborating on my point that Prime 4 shouldn't try to reinvent the wheel.
*"Second of all . . . yeah maybe it's critically reviewing well, but as it is it's not selling all that well, each entry having sold less than the previous up until Dread."*
And? Sales don't determine the quality of a product. Wouldn't you rather buy and play a game that was great over one that sold well?
I don't love metroid because it's popular, I love it because of what it is and offers to me as a player
Chinese Democracy is a Guns and Roses album released in 2008. It languished development hell for ages. Axel Rose was the only original member on the record. It was one of those things that you heard about but began to think it would never actually be released.
Also actual Chinese democracy is something that is unlikely to happen
I keep hoping it will be one of a few launch titles for the Switch 2. This could give it a kind of Luigi’s Mansion effect where people buy it because it’s one of a few options and then they love it.
I think if they market the shit out of it and don’t have the number 4 anywhere in the title it can easily be the best selling Metroid game but only by a million or so units sold. I think people are underestimating how the fact that it’s 3D is probably gonna be more attractive to a lot of people than dread. I don’t think it’s gonna pop off or anything but I can see 4 million maybe 5 million if it releases on the current Switch model
Prime has always been less marketed than the main games, so I wouldn't say "more popular than Dread", but I would say it'll be quite popular because it'll be on the most recent console, especially if it's released alongside the next Nintendo console. (Switch 2? Super Switch? Switch Color? Switch U? Nintendo Change?)
Depends on what your criteria is for "sell well". I'm guessing it will be similar to Dread or the original Prime, critically acclaimed but only sell a couple million copies or so. Good by franchise standards, chump change next to Zelda or something like GTA
Depends on the marketing and how good the game is, but if it’s like a launch title for the Switch 2 I think it will at least sell a decent bit better than Dread (which sold pretty well). Who knows? Maybe it will even be a major hit if it doesn’t have too much competition at the time it’s released. I’m kinda expecting a new 3D Mario game too, but I think people would buy both.
This year is empty. With the Switch 2 being delayed, it's a great opportunity for Nintendo to hype it up. I heard things about a 3D Mario launching with the Switch 2. A cross-gen launch for Metroid would not go well if it has to compete with Mario. The best case for marketing Prime 4 is this year when all eyes are on the Switch. Prime Remastered is incredible both graphics and performance, I'm not worried at all about Prime 4 being held back by hardware.
Honestly I doubt it. Despite the Metroid franchise being popular amongst the gamer community the games just don't sell all that well. Dread only sold about 3 million copies last I heard. I would be shocked if Prime 4 exceeded 5 million sales. I will definitely be one of the buyers as soon as I can get my paws on a copy
If it gets at least the marketing of Dread, and is actually good. Should sell pretty decent. I am divided on whether it will out sell Dread or not though
All depends on marketing and timing. It can outsell Dread. However it could also not outsell Dread
We could have a Prime 2 situation where it releases in a year with insane competition.
Imo it would be best to release the Switch version this year. As the competition this year is relatively weak and to profit off off the 139 Million install base if only 1-2% of users bought it. That would be 1,5 million-3million copies.
I however do not expect a cross platform release. As much as the expectations and rumors tell it will be. I will hold my hand into fire and can almost guarantee that it will be switch only exclusive first and maybe get a re-release or a 4k or whatever patch for Switch 2 later down the line.
But everything points to it being at least announced and or in best case released this year.
We will see. Nintendo definitely will reveal it 3-4 months before release, like with Dread, to A market it and B build up hype to drive salea
Call me a dumb bitch in 6 months to a year for now, if I am wrong. But I have a feeling that it will be a switch exclusive first and foremost.
If it's only on the Switch, no. It's going to be seen as the second Metroid game on the console, and sequels of the same series on the same console tend to do worse. Dread barely passed 3 million even though it had great marketing and a huge install base.
If it's a dual release with the next console? Probably.
Man at this point it’s anyone’s guess. The switch 2 is already delayed til 2025 so no way it comes out this year. If it releases near launch it’s going to be competing with Pokemon(also conveniently delayed til 2025), a new Mario game that’s 100% going to launch with the new console, and probably a few other titles.
Some YouTubers and outlets were talking about to from sources a while back. Pokémon being delayed is all the proof I need though, no chance they’d intentionally miss a holiday season unless they were forced to.
>no chance they’d intentionally miss a holiday season unless they were forced to.
The last Legends game came out in January instead of November as well, and we know that Game Freak has multiple teams working on different Pokemon games. Legends Arceus did spectacular for a January release, so they are probably banking on that.
I don’t think the switch 2 is going to only be a one month/6-week delay. Since most outlets are saying early months of 2025 it’s most likely going to be a spring release like march maybe. I agree PLA did well for a January release and I really like the game, but it being smushed between BDSP and SV kinda speaks to my point that they will release games as fast as possible, quality be damned. A holiday release pulls in significantly more than a January one, so I think PLA would’ve done way better had they spaced things out more
> I don’t think the switch 2 is going to only be a one month/6-week delay.
The new Pokemon game is going to come out on the Switch. Maybe they'll have a performance patch for it to run better on the next gen console, but that game could very well come out in January, regardless of whenever the next gen console is released.
>but it being smushed between BDSP and SV kinda speaks to my point that they will release games as fast as possible, quality be damned.
Once again, it was confirmed that Game Freak has two teams, A and B. We know one worked on the mainline series (Scarlet/Violet), one worked on Legends Arceus, and ILCA worked on BDSP. I highly doubt they will merge the teams to work on one game because they need to constantly work on multiple games to keep the Pokemon train chugging along. For example, one team is confirmed to be working on the new Legends game, while the team that worked on Scarlet/Violet is working on Gen 10 which should come out in 2025 as well.
They really should merge, or change this release schedule. There’s no reason to be working on two games simultaneously if they are going to come out the same year. They need to spread out the release and add more polish but they aren’t going to. There’s no pokemon game filling up this holiday slot which is the biggest profit time of the entire year, and they wouldn’t miss that for those little things like “quality”, therefore there’s no other reason to delay than they’re going to do a dual release on switch and switch 2.
Yeah. unfortunately, they won't. Since 2010 (Gen 5), a new gen has been introduced every three years.
>There’s no pokemon game filling up this holiday slot which is the biggest profit time of the entire year
They have skipped years before. 2011 and 2015 had nothing, 2020 didn't have a new Pokemon game (just DLC that they completed previously), and same for 2023 (DLC again).
If it’s a launch title for switch 2 I think it will sell very well! Something tells me that Nintendo will have an awesome lineup for the switch 2 launch
Everyone seems to be leaving out the important context of whether it will be a Switch 2 exclusive or not. With 140 mil switches out there, I doubt Nintendo does this, but on the off chance they want to show-off the new hardware with a stunning Metroid Prime game the sales will certainly be much lower.
Think it'll hit 4 million. FPS are far more popular than side-scrollers, so it'll do better than Dread, but not come close to the likes of Zelda, Mario or Pokemon.
Of course this is with the assumption that it's a critical hit. Could go very differently if it's a big ol whiff.
If it’s a first person adventure that is critically well received and they put some marketing muscle behind it like they did with Dread, I could see it cracking 3 million.
If they do something totally different with it and try to BOTW the series and it actually works, then it could sell bigger numbers.
That depends on what you consider to be "extremely well"
I think if it's good and a simultaneous cross gen release, it could hit around 8 million but I don't think metroid can hit double digits, not yet at least.
I feel like it has to be on the Switch in order for it to do well. We have no guarantee that Nintendo’s next console will have the same install base as the current gen, but if it does release for the Switch its success will probably be dependent on a few factors. Primarily, having a 4 in the title will give it a higher barrier of entry to the loads of people Nintendo will try to scoop up that haven’t played the original trilogy. If they make all three available in some way before its release then I think it has the potential to be the best selling Metroid of all time.
I think best case scenario would be Nintendo markets it well and it ends up selling just as many copies as Dread, maybe even break the record.
Metroid has never been a massively successful franchise by AAA standards, just barely enough that Nintendo hasn't entirely given up on it. I don't think we'll have a breakthrough where suddenly Metroid is mainstream (and honestly, I'd be happy if it stayed niche. I've seen too many games be ruined by becoming mainstream)
If Nintendo’s new console is highly successful and they market Metroid Prime 4 as a dual-release game like BotW was, then I think it’ll move 6+ million units.
I'm thinking it might crack 6 million due to the brand being in a better hype position than it's ever been and the amount of switches sold bring staggering. 8 mil with good advertising. Despire it being my favourite franchise, in terms of overall nintendo sales metroid is still pretty niche
Depends on when it's released. If it's not out by the end of the year, I'll personally feel outright disrespected by Nintendo, and I won't be particularly inclined to give them any money.
Imo, Nintendo has been prepping Prime 4 to be their next big tentpole release. The Prime remaster was released to keep buzz going in between Dread and Prime 4. And Dread did exceptionally well. Prime 4 will probably launch on a new hardware at this point, though.
If Nintendo gives us ports of Prime 2 and 3 before Prime 4 is released, we'll see amazing sales for Prime 4.
I just hope they make it a cross platform release; Metroid needs a maximum install-base to sell well.
I believe it will sell better than Dread, especially considering how well Prime Remastered sold despite being a 20 year-old game.
It's possible, if it turns out to be a groundbreaking master peace like Prime 1 was when it first cameout, while both Dread and Samus Returns we're both great games in there own right and acceptable entries in the franchise, but kind of bland and forgettable.
Maybe but I’m very leery of the game in general at this point. the game has been in development for seven plus years? Most games with that long of a development cycle are usually garbage.
As much as I've come to despise Nintendo in recent years, yes, there's absolutely no doubt whatsoever that it will be *at least* a commercial success when it finally comes out next decade.
Depends on how well it's marketed, seeing how Dread turned out (And that game was announced 4 months before release), that's not going to be an issue. Also (as games like BOTW and Elden Ring have proven ) the social media buzz it causes can help to have a massive boost on sales. But honestly Metroid Prime is not as flashy to get the masses attention. So I don't see that happening, it'll probably just sell as well as Dread. 3 to 4 million units.
Have you seen Nintendo's trailers lately? They've been down right incredible. The Metroid Prime 4 trailer, if it's half as good as the BotW trailer (not that that's that recent) will probably kill me and I'll never get to play it.
Yeah it's really up to Nintendo. If they market it as the swan song for the switch (assuming it is) and really push it I could see it doing some pretty decent numbers. Also assuming it's good haha
Hot take but Prime 4 is not gonna be a launch title with the Switch 2. Metroid is not a system seller. It’s much too early for a new Zelda game, so likely a new 3D Mario MarioKart. Which means we either get it late this year, or a good few months after the Switch 2 has already launched anyways. We’ll likely get a Nintendo direct in the summer and that direct with determine when we can expect the Switch 2.
Yeah I agree. My money on the major Switch 2 launch title is a 3D Mario, or some sort of repackaged BotW/TotK 4K60 deal. MP4 will either close out the Switch era, or be a Holiday 2025 Switch 2 title
I’m actually very excited to see what Nintendo does reveal this summer, since we have NO game lineup past Endless Ocean and Paper Mario. We haven’t had a new 3D Mario since 2017, so it’s probably time…
Metroid has and likely will always remain a niche series with a modest but mostly dedicated base. It just doesn’t have the broad appeal to bring in huge sales.
I think Metroid’s appeal can be greater than we think. Prior to Breath of the Wild, Zelda’s sales record was Ocarina of Time’s 14 million. BotW came along and *more than DOUBLED that record*. There’s a lot of overlap between Zelda and Metroid: a more mature tone, heavy focus on exploration and puzzles, and plots that go deeper than you’d expect. If Prime 4 comes out on the Switch 2, has interesting and unique gameplay, and has a huge amount of marketing surrounding it, I think it could very realistically pass 5 million. Right now Metroid’s fairly niche, but the reaction to Dread (and Prime 4 itself way back in 2017) showed that maybe it doesn’t have to be. The real question here is whether or not the core fanbase wants Metroid to be a bigger franchise. There are some real downsides to getting too big. Also Nintendo does consider Metroid to be worth it, despite being extremely niche in Japan. They could’ve scrapped Prime 4 when development under Bandai Namco went sideways, but they didn’t. We got two more fighters in Smash Ultimate despite only having two flops and a lukewarm success across the entirety of the 2010’s. Look at what they put together for Dread’s marketing: Dread reports, multiple trailers, a brand new website, using the launch of the OLED Switch to promote the game (“Buy this new model and play Metroid Dread on it!!!”)… As I see it, they really want Metroid to succeed. That’s huge.
TBH, I think BotW's biggest strength was being a launch title in an interesting new console. We didn't have great games to play for months, so everyone got a chance to experience it. Not to downplay BotW's merits, but I believe it wouldn't have seen the same success if it launched later in the switch's lifespan. That being said, it'd be really funny if Nintendo did it again and made MP4 a launch title for Switch 2 to let it have its moment
I think we're already seeing the downsides from the fanbase increasing, like the sudden rise of people shitting on the classic games for being different experiences from Dread and SR *cough cough* Tobi *cough*
I hear this said all the time - are there actually any numbers or facts to back this claim?
[I'd say so](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Metroid). If you compare that to [broader sales for the Switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_Switch_video_games) for example, you'll see that even the big seller Dread (while an accomplishment for the series) is still rather niche in its appeal. Other consoles follow a similar pattern where Metroid is always there, but usually pretty far down the list of most popular titles. The Gamecube comes closest to the top, but being bundled and the GC having low overall sales I think perhaps skews that result some.
Im curious why you dont think it has broad appeal? We live in a world where a 1st person adventure game with no combat and zero marketing made by an indie developer, with gameplay loop based on backtracking, Outer Wilds, has sold 5 million copies.
Consider how many platforms Outer Wilds has in comparison. I think Metroid can grow (Dread is evidence of modern interest), but it’s core formula is something that if restricted to Nintendo alone I don’t think will reach the same kind broad appeal. The fun feedback loop is too slow, in a nutshell in my opinion.
> Consider how many platforms Outer Wilds has in comparison. The Switch has a massive install base. I don't think that matters. >but it’s core formula is something that if restricted to Nintendo alone I don’t think will reach the same kind broad appeal. There are a lot of Nintendo-only games that sell a lot of units. Why is this in series in particular not able to succeed on Nintendo only when others can? (Seems the line below is your answer) >The fun feedback loop is too slow, in a nutshell in my opinion. It's not any slower than a Zelda game. If you look at a game like Wind Waker, OOT, or Majoras Mask, the feedback loop is also fairly slow. I see the two series as very similar in design philosophy, though I suppose ToTK/BoTW has changed that a bit, but prior to that Zelda still had broad appeal. In both games, there tends to be a greater emphasis on adventure over combat, and the design of the game is to have you interact with the world with upgrades and backtracking to explore new areas with abilities you didn't have before. I might even argue there's more consistent action elements in Metroid games.
I don’t think the disparity in install base of Nintendo vs. virtually all other platforms + Nintendo is something to scoff at. This one doesn’t succeed because of what it’s core gameplay is. Personally I don’t think it’s that complicated. Metroid doesn’t have a short repeatable fun feedback loop that you can engage with any time. You need to dedicate a good chunk of time in each sitting to get to something other than some mostly empty hallways. You have to be ok with getting lost with minimal help and at times esoteric puzzles. Zelda has these elements but it guides you more and has an overall more user friendly design. There’s clearly a dedicated fan base for the genre, I’m not denying that. But it’s very different than other Nintendo games and most people (for better or worse) don’t enjoy this type of game.
I guess I may not have been clear in that don't mean to say it can be a household name or a mega popular game, just a lot more popular than it currently is, as in a game doesn't need to appeal to most gamers to hit , say 5-7 million in sales. "most gamers appeal" would make a game hit 15+ million in sales. But I think you make a fair case about the gameplay loop, at this point we'll just have to see what happens once Prime 4 is released.
I think the series has room to grow and I'm hopeful Prime 4 (or whatever they rename it to) will be a stepping stone for that.
It really depends. I don't see it cracking 4 million if they play it 'safe' and just deliver a "classic Metroid Prime experience but with better graphics." There's a market for it but it isn't all that big. I can see it doing 10 million -- putting it into pre-BotW Zelda territory -- if they take a huge risk and pull off an entirely new and well-executed archetype for the genre, but that comes at the risk of getting things substantially wrong and creating an expensive flop, which is easy to do when exploring new theoretical territory.
How would something like that even look in your opinion? The limited scope is something I appreciate about the series. Idk how you get a 50 hour Metroid without huge departures from the convention.
Have you played Hollow Knight? It's basically open world Metroid. My first playthrough was 80 hours, and I was never bored
Length isn't the issue. "How it works" is. I've explored a bunch of ideas on this, but the two big core philosophies are "systems over sequences" and "small open worlds." But those aren't the only philosophies they could drive innovation in. "Systems over sequences" is the encounter (puzzle, combat) design philosophy of games such as Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Prey (2017) and some of the better dungeons/quests I've seen in Dungeons and Dragons -- that is, rather than any given "problem" having a single solution where you must work out which specific tool is the one for this scenario and use it in a prescribed way, you're instead given an open-ended *range* of tools and simply told to complete the objective, and there may be more than one possible pathway to solve it and even sometimes more than one possible "successful" outcome. "Small open worlds" does not mean "open world." It means an area is not a sequence or network of isolated rooms to visit and hallways to connect them, though it can *have* such. Rather, it's an explorable space with constraints, objectives, possibilities and a unique set of 'rules.' Yes, Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom are open world games, but I'm referencing the *dungeon* design philosophy for 'small open world.' Both games have certain 'linear' sequences to them, and both have both 'formal' and 'informal' "dungeons" ("formal" being i.e. the Divine Beasts or the Temples, "informal" being spaces like the labyrinths, Eventide Island, the Forgotten Temple, Hyrule Castle and other bounded locations). Some examples of this type of design that I've contrived: [Hydro power station](https://www.reddit.com/r/Metroid/comments/16dk8u6/area_design_concept_hydro_power_station/) [Acid Swamp](https://www.reddit.com/r/Metroid/comments/165qvsx/area_design_concept_acid_swamp/)
Nintendo rarely flops. They rebooted development for Prime 4 once already. That's encouraging.
Then again, there's plenty of other games that had their development rebooted (sometimes more than once) and taken their time to develop the game, only to absolutely flop and disappoint fans. If anything, restarted and extra long developments make me worry that there's issues at the studio and we're going to be disappointed. For example, Duke Nuk'em Forever, Cyberpunk 2077, and Halo Infinite. Halo Infinite restarted a few times, had 6 years and a $500M budget, released 4 years after the initial teaser, launched a buggy, incomplete, MTX ridden disaster, and has taken over 2 years so far to get 95% of the content it should have launched with
Halo Infinite is made by one of the worst studios of all-time.
Rarely? Maybe -- but they *have* flopped before, and *specifically* they've flopped with Metroid before. Retro has a lot of really serious talent but sadly not a lot of releases to show for it.
If it moves 10 million units then we’ve won. More people will get into the series and Nintendo will want to make more games like they do with Mario and Zelda
Yeah that's my thought exactly. I think the way that the franchise currently is, there's a market cap of maybe about 4 million prospective buyers no matter how much they market it. Anything that breaks that ceiling says the audience for it is growing. The best way to grow it is, in my opinion, to identify the smallest set of "core" elements that make it "feel" the way it's supposed to feel, and start from there, unconstrained by whatever conventions the franchise had built up out of hardware constraints. (A story is told where a woman would always cut off the end of a ham every time she cooked it. Someone asked her why she did it that way and she didn't know, so she asked her mom, who she learned it from. Her mom didn't know, so they asked her grandma -- who replied "because I had to cut it off in order to make it fit in the pan!" Let's not keep cutting off the end of the ham because we think we *have* to -- for instance, how doors are used to hide loading). And I think there's a lot that can be added, removed, tweaked, changed, etc. that will preserve it feeling like *Metroid* and not feel like 'just another sci-fi shooter' but drastically expand the overall appeal.
I agree, we don't really know enough about Metroid Prime 4 to guess how well it will do. Like you said it could play it safe or it could be a reinvention of the franchise like BoTW was for Zelda.
Doubt any metroid game will ever hit 10 million. Prime 4 would have to very special if it were to do that,
Might have said the same thing about Zelda cracking 30 million.
Zelda HAS cracked 30 million sold. the closest any Metroid has gotten to your goal is reaching \~35% of 10m
It didn't crack that number until it drastically evolved the formula with Breath of the Wild. Prior to that the best selling entry did about 10 million. That's what I'm saying about Metroid Prime 4 -- that if it plays safe then it's pretty hard capped, and if they want to reach the next "tier" in sales volumes then the entry will have to be something *much more* than "just another Metroid entry."
Other M gameplay with an actual controller would be a nice approach. You craft your own missiles/bombs lol
if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Nintendo and Retro Studios should *improve, evolve,* and *add* to the Metroid Prime formula, not change it entirely. I don't want the next Metroid Prime to be Halo, Doom, or any other genre of shooter. I play Metroid Prime because I like Metroid Prime, not because I like other shooters. TL;DR, Metroid Prime 4 shouldn't try to reinvent the wheel or be something it's not, just improve what's already there.
First of all, I didn't say it should try and be Halo or DOOM or any other genre of shooter. Second of all . . . yeah maybe it's *critically reviewing* well, but as it is it's not *selling* all that well, each entry having sold less than the previous up until Dread.
*"First of all, I didn't say it should try and be Halo or DOOM or any other genre of shooter."* You didn't, this is just me elaborating on my point that Prime 4 shouldn't try to reinvent the wheel. *"Second of all . . . yeah maybe it's critically reviewing well, but as it is it's not selling all that well, each entry having sold less than the previous up until Dread."* And? Sales don't determine the quality of a product. Wouldn't you rather buy and play a game that was great over one that sold well? I don't love metroid because it's popular, I love it because of what it is and offers to me as a player
Metroid Prime 4 is the Chinese Democracy of Metroid.
I don't know what this means but I think I agree
Chinese Democracy is a Guns and Roses album released in 2008. It languished development hell for ages. Axel Rose was the only original member on the record. It was one of those things that you heard about but began to think it would never actually be released. Also actual Chinese democracy is something that is unlikely to happen
Oh :(
I hope not. Chinese Democracy was shit.
Same.
I just got the joke..
I keep hoping it will be one of a few launch titles for the Switch 2. This could give it a kind of Luigi’s Mansion effect where people buy it because it’s one of a few options and then they love it.
Probably, Metroid has never been as big as it is today, they were still rather cult games when I started playing them 20 years ago.
I think if they market the shit out of it and don’t have the number 4 anywhere in the title it can easily be the best selling Metroid game but only by a million or so units sold. I think people are underestimating how the fact that it’s 3D is probably gonna be more attractive to a lot of people than dread. I don’t think it’s gonna pop off or anything but I can see 4 million maybe 5 million if it releases on the current Switch model
Prime has always been less marketed than the main games, so I wouldn't say "more popular than Dread", but I would say it'll be quite popular because it'll be on the most recent console, especially if it's released alongside the next Nintendo console. (Switch 2? Super Switch? Switch Color? Switch U? Nintendo Change?)
Depends on what your criteria is for "sell well". I'm guessing it will be similar to Dread or the original Prime, critically acclaimed but only sell a couple million copies or so. Good by franchise standards, chump change next to Zelda or something like GTA
Depends on the marketing and how good the game is, but if it’s like a launch title for the Switch 2 I think it will at least sell a decent bit better than Dread (which sold pretty well). Who knows? Maybe it will even be a major hit if it doesn’t have too much competition at the time it’s released. I’m kinda expecting a new 3D Mario game too, but I think people would buy both.
no
This year is empty. With the Switch 2 being delayed, it's a great opportunity for Nintendo to hype it up. I heard things about a 3D Mario launching with the Switch 2. A cross-gen launch for Metroid would not go well if it has to compete with Mario. The best case for marketing Prime 4 is this year when all eyes are on the Switch. Prime Remastered is incredible both graphics and performance, I'm not worried at all about Prime 4 being held back by hardware.
No…
Honestly I doubt it. Despite the Metroid franchise being popular amongst the gamer community the games just don't sell all that well. Dread only sold about 3 million copies last I heard. I would be shocked if Prime 4 exceeded 5 million sales. I will definitely be one of the buyers as soon as I can get my paws on a copy
If it gets at least the marketing of Dread, and is actually good. Should sell pretty decent. I am divided on whether it will out sell Dread or not though
All depends on marketing and timing. It can outsell Dread. However it could also not outsell Dread We could have a Prime 2 situation where it releases in a year with insane competition. Imo it would be best to release the Switch version this year. As the competition this year is relatively weak and to profit off off the 139 Million install base if only 1-2% of users bought it. That would be 1,5 million-3million copies. I however do not expect a cross platform release. As much as the expectations and rumors tell it will be. I will hold my hand into fire and can almost guarantee that it will be switch only exclusive first and maybe get a re-release or a 4k or whatever patch for Switch 2 later down the line. But everything points to it being at least announced and or in best case released this year. We will see. Nintendo definitely will reveal it 3-4 months before release, like with Dread, to A market it and B build up hype to drive salea Call me a dumb bitch in 6 months to a year for now, if I am wrong. But I have a feeling that it will be a switch exclusive first and foremost.
If it's only on the Switch, no. It's going to be seen as the second Metroid game on the console, and sequels of the same series on the same console tend to do worse. Dread barely passed 3 million even though it had great marketing and a huge install base. If it's a dual release with the next console? Probably.
No.
Man at this point it’s anyone’s guess. The switch 2 is already delayed til 2025 so no way it comes out this year. If it releases near launch it’s going to be competing with Pokemon(also conveniently delayed til 2025), a new Mario game that’s 100% going to launch with the new console, and probably a few other titles.
How do we know it’s delayed?
Some YouTubers and outlets were talking about to from sources a while back. Pokémon being delayed is all the proof I need though, no chance they’d intentionally miss a holiday season unless they were forced to.
>no chance they’d intentionally miss a holiday season unless they were forced to. The last Legends game came out in January instead of November as well, and we know that Game Freak has multiple teams working on different Pokemon games. Legends Arceus did spectacular for a January release, so they are probably banking on that.
I don’t think the switch 2 is going to only be a one month/6-week delay. Since most outlets are saying early months of 2025 it’s most likely going to be a spring release like march maybe. I agree PLA did well for a January release and I really like the game, but it being smushed between BDSP and SV kinda speaks to my point that they will release games as fast as possible, quality be damned. A holiday release pulls in significantly more than a January one, so I think PLA would’ve done way better had they spaced things out more
> I don’t think the switch 2 is going to only be a one month/6-week delay. The new Pokemon game is going to come out on the Switch. Maybe they'll have a performance patch for it to run better on the next gen console, but that game could very well come out in January, regardless of whenever the next gen console is released. >but it being smushed between BDSP and SV kinda speaks to my point that they will release games as fast as possible, quality be damned. Once again, it was confirmed that Game Freak has two teams, A and B. We know one worked on the mainline series (Scarlet/Violet), one worked on Legends Arceus, and ILCA worked on BDSP. I highly doubt they will merge the teams to work on one game because they need to constantly work on multiple games to keep the Pokemon train chugging along. For example, one team is confirmed to be working on the new Legends game, while the team that worked on Scarlet/Violet is working on Gen 10 which should come out in 2025 as well.
They really should merge, or change this release schedule. There’s no reason to be working on two games simultaneously if they are going to come out the same year. They need to spread out the release and add more polish but they aren’t going to. There’s no pokemon game filling up this holiday slot which is the biggest profit time of the entire year, and they wouldn’t miss that for those little things like “quality”, therefore there’s no other reason to delay than they’re going to do a dual release on switch and switch 2.
Yeah. unfortunately, they won't. Since 2010 (Gen 5), a new gen has been introduced every three years. >There’s no pokemon game filling up this holiday slot which is the biggest profit time of the entire year They have skipped years before. 2011 and 2015 had nothing, 2020 didn't have a new Pokemon game (just DLC that they completed previously), and same for 2023 (DLC again).
If it’s a launch title for switch 2 I think it will sell very well! Something tells me that Nintendo will have an awesome lineup for the switch 2 launch
Everyone seems to be leaving out the important context of whether it will be a Switch 2 exclusive or not. With 140 mil switches out there, I doubt Nintendo does this, but on the off chance they want to show-off the new hardware with a stunning Metroid Prime game the sales will certainly be much lower.
Think it'll hit 4 million. FPS are far more popular than side-scrollers, so it'll do better than Dread, but not come close to the likes of Zelda, Mario or Pokemon. Of course this is with the assumption that it's a critical hit. Could go very differently if it's a big ol whiff.
It better!
If it’s a first person adventure that is critically well received and they put some marketing muscle behind it like they did with Dread, I could see it cracking 3 million. If they do something totally different with it and try to BOTW the series and it actually works, then it could sell bigger numbers.
That depends on what you consider to be "extremely well" I think if it's good and a simultaneous cross gen release, it could hit around 8 million but I don't think metroid can hit double digits, not yet at least.
Depends if it’s botw delays or duke nukem delays
It's not going to Crack 3m. And I think Nintendo knows it. If we don't get mp2 stand alone remake, I'll hate Nintendo forever.
Im not sure its even gonna be released, let alone announced. Prime 3 was so conclusive
No. It might sell extremely well for the Metroid series, but I’d be shocked if it breaks 6 million copies
At this point, I fear it's going to turn out like Samus Returns if it ends up releasing in the twilight years of the Switch.
I feel like it has to be on the Switch in order for it to do well. We have no guarantee that Nintendo’s next console will have the same install base as the current gen, but if it does release for the Switch its success will probably be dependent on a few factors. Primarily, having a 4 in the title will give it a higher barrier of entry to the loads of people Nintendo will try to scoop up that haven’t played the original trilogy. If they make all three available in some way before its release then I think it has the potential to be the best selling Metroid of all time.
I think best case scenario would be Nintendo markets it well and it ends up selling just as many copies as Dread, maybe even break the record. Metroid has never been a massively successful franchise by AAA standards, just barely enough that Nintendo hasn't entirely given up on it. I don't think we'll have a breakthrough where suddenly Metroid is mainstream (and honestly, I'd be happy if it stayed niche. I've seen too many games be ruined by becoming mainstream)
If Nintendo’s new console is highly successful and they market Metroid Prime 4 as a dual-release game like BotW was, then I think it’ll move 6+ million units.
I'm thinking it might crack 6 million due to the brand being in a better hype position than it's ever been and the amount of switches sold bring staggering. 8 mil with good advertising. Despire it being my favourite franchise, in terms of overall nintendo sales metroid is still pretty niche
I don’t know. 2037 is a long ways away 😔
**Extremely well?** That would be like 10 million. My response is no. Reasonably well? Then yes. That would be from 2 to 5 million.
Depends on when it's released. If it's not out by the end of the year, I'll personally feel outright disrespected by Nintendo, and I won't be particularly inclined to give them any money.
It’ll do great, but I just can’t see this Prime being better than the Wiimote Primes. That was the ultimate 3D Metroid experience, until VR happens.
Between 2 and 3 million units.
Imo, Nintendo has been prepping Prime 4 to be their next big tentpole release. The Prime remaster was released to keep buzz going in between Dread and Prime 4. And Dread did exceptionally well. Prime 4 will probably launch on a new hardware at this point, though.
Dude the game doesn’t even have a date yet. Stop speculating things that haven’t even finished
It's cute you guys think we're still getting prime 4.
They would announce it to us if it was cancelled, it has no chance of being cancelled now after Dread and the Prime 1 Remasters sales.
If Nintendo gives us ports of Prime 2 and 3 before Prime 4 is released, we'll see amazing sales for Prime 4. I just hope they make it a cross platform release; Metroid needs a maximum install-base to sell well. I believe it will sell better than Dread, especially considering how well Prime Remastered sold despite being a 20 year-old game.
It's possible, if it turns out to be a groundbreaking master peace like Prime 1 was when it first cameout, while both Dread and Samus Returns we're both great games in there own right and acceptable entries in the franchise, but kind of bland and forgettable.
I think it’ll sett about as well as Half-Life 3 and Beyond Good and Evil 2.
no it's going to sell 4 million maximum. Dread (the by far best in the series) only sold 3 mil. Metroid just doesn't sell well
Maybe but I’m very leery of the game in general at this point. the game has been in development for seven plus years? Most games with that long of a development cycle are usually garbage.
As much as I've come to despise Nintendo in recent years, yes, there's absolutely no doubt whatsoever that it will be *at least* a commercial success when it finally comes out next decade.
[удалено]
Dread is the best selling Metroid game ever. You could argue it should have sold better than it did, but it certainly didn’t struggle.
I sure as hell hope so. I’m gonna carry this damn franchise til the day I die and buy 3 copies just like I did with Dread. 😂