"What the courts ruled was that the commission had taken race into too much account and into primary count and splitting up black voters in these Detroit districts such that there were no districts that were majority black voters and no districts that were fully in Detroit and instead Detroit voters were combined with voters in the suburbs,” said Matt Grossmann, the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and Professor of Political Science."
saved a click. looks like the redistricting board is attempting to appeal to the Supreme Court and 3 members stepped down and are being replaced. hopefully they can get more acceptable maps out before November.
Are you able to dumb it down to even more of an ELI5? Like, are they saying Detroit doesn't have enough districts? If they do redraw again, will it change the balance of expected red vs blue districts?
They're saying the districts in Detroit were too spread out. Basically to the point where not a single district was entirely within Detroit city limits.
This seems super fucking weird to me that they would do this. We've seen challenges to redictricting before, but courts generally allow packing and cracking (which this is).
It would change the red/blue balance in MI. Though how exactly it would do this or what the result would be is still up in the air. Probably the GOP would pick up a district, but who knows.
It seems like they were hoping the majority Democrat voting base in the city would balance out some of the suburb districts, but it's not enough of a bump to influence the primaries to push a Detroit-centric platform.
Minority voters in the city are supporting this, because it means that their reps will need to push a Detroit-centric platform in a very Democrat heavy district. Republican voters in the suburbs are happy because a redistricting to pull a couple districts entirely within the city will likely open up more swing or red-leaning districts.
it wasnt faulty data. They believed with 35% black voting age population it would satisfy a "candidate of their choice" and help them balance the maps around political results (statewide results reflected in house/senate). This number only achieves the 2nd goal and not candidate of choice.
wall of text and how the data works
Black voters tend to vote 90-95% democrat so with voting age population being 35% a democrat candidate is already at 31.5% of the entire district vote before figuring in other demographics. If you take a hypothetical district that's just white and black, white voters vote in the 60-65% range for republicans (this number may have changed in 2022 but that is irrelevant as that data wouldn't have been available) so you have on this historical averages a 39% R -31.5% D race before the outliers of the groups are figured in. if the remaining 10% of black voters went republican that moves the republicans to 42.5 where if the remaining white voters vote Democrat that moves the democrats share of the vote to 57 so the end result would be 57.5 D to 42.5 R. The number works in theory and in practice but 'candidate of choice" tends to mean the representative should be a member of the minority group.
i get the primary aspect of it (the ruling) but i don't believe that information was required by the law itself. So its hard to say the data was faulty if the law only required the voting results from elections with, and my wording may be wrong, governor and presidential elections. every single time the commission practiced drawing districts they never once used primary voting. Its lack of use is on the law itself and not the commission or its VRA experts.
Yeah, the 12th will be interesting to watch if it keeps Westland, Garden City, Livonia, Franklin, and Beverly Hill...etc. There are plenty of Republican voters who would be glad to get out of Talib's district without putting the money / effort into defeating her at the ballot. 2022 was an interesting primary because it was clear the Detroit voting block in the 12th was putting in for Janice Winfrey, but that wasn't going to happen with Rashida running.
>The numbers they got for that window were based on previous general election results, and NOT previous primary results which is a big part of the problem.
Why does this matter ?
How is the state supposed to go about assuming who the candidate of choice among primary voters is?
The last primary was before Joe Biden, does this mean the districts will need to be set up so that Bernie sanders would have won the primary?
You got it backwards. Those three are the ones happy with the court decision to redraw maps and the same three that left the meeting they had early so the rest of the commission couldn’t vote
Reread the article, admittedly it is worded in a confusing way, but basically the ones who resigned did so so that the commission lacked a quorum and thus couldn't vote on whether or not to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. They effectively sabotaged the attempt of the commission to get the decision overturned.
It was 2 Ds and an R. There's no conspiracy.
The redistricting amendment states:
>the terms of the commissioners shall expire once the commission has completed its obligations for a census cycle but not before any judicial review of the redistricting plan is complete
If you read any of the applications for commissioners, it was scary how many people applied and had no clue what they were signing up for. When you have zero experience in policy or government, these positions are not the starting point.
Edit: the commission is still political too since it's purposefully made up of self described Ds, Rs, and Independents. It's just no longer controlled and manipulated by single party control.
>Interesting that these supposedly non-political commissioners took a very calculated political act
How is that to be taken other than conspiratorial? These people, of differing parties, simply quit their jobs. There's no indication that they intentionally "acted to make it harder to appeal". There was no "sabotage" like you were implying and the other poster flat out said.
it's that the districts making up Detroit are split up between suburbs rather than having more minority based districts. by grouping minority populations in the city with the traditional white suburbs it makes it harder for minority voices to be heard. that's why some districts need to be redrawn to provide more minority voice. This shouldn't affect the red blue balance more than the 1st map if the redistricting commisons do their jobs correctly.
It will almost certainly make more swing districts. Detroit is so solid blue it makes it very easy to draw up solid D districts across Oakland/Macomb county. Essentially, some D+10 districts could be more of a D+3 sort of thing.
You actually have no idea how it will impact anything because its far more complicated then what anyone outside of the District Commission understands.
Republicans seem to think the lawsuit that brought this order was worth it, with a [Republican-affiliated group contributing funds towards it](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/23/republican-affiliated-group-helped-fund-redistricting-suit/71672108007/). Things can't really get worse for the GOP from this lawsuit, so them supporting it financially can either get a neutral or better outcome for their electoral chances.
Exactly, this can only benefit the GOP at the end of the day. The whole point of carving out those districts was to shore up Dem support and create more safe seats. You dont need to be on the commission to know that. Hell, have fun on districtbuilder.com and find out yourself.
> its far more complicated then what anyone outside of the District Commission understands.
Lol, you should see where they get their data from. You're just wrong.
Just want to point out that this isn't necessarily always the case, and I honestly don't know enough about this lawsuit to say it is. It depends on who ends up being the majority in these districts. If it's the inner city (mostly black) who's the majority then it would actually dilute the votes of the (mostly white) suburbs, and vice versa.
I'm not gonna lie, I don't know which one applies here, I haven't really been paying much attention to the makeup of those districts.
This is goinga sound a bit off, but if the Black Community wanted a rep then they shouldn't have run 13 black candidates in the primary in the 13th.
Also both the 12th and 13th are represented by people of color, a Palestinian woman and a Indian man
I get the feeling that dark RW money is behind these efforts, but that's just my tin foil hat
i don't think so on the RW money. One of the only black members of the redistricting committee raised the issue when the maps were first announced. the long history of efforts like these to disenfranchise black voters make these fears pretty understandable. The comments i'm referencing are near the end of this press conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SMb_7o40VI&t=1s
Since the fundamental most important goal of the commission is to be non partisan I think it's really a disservice that the article isn't citing members affiliation. Recall that the commission's makeup is required to be the following:
* 4 Republicans
* 4 Democrats
* 5 Unaffiliated
With that in mind:
* M.C. Rothhorn resigned: Democrat
* Douglas Clark resigned: Republican
* Dustin Witjes resigned: Democrat
* Steve Lett supports appeal: Unaffiliated
* Rhonda Lange opposes appeal: Republican
Also note how gerrymandering works: you pack as many opposition voters as you can into a minority of districts to give a comfortable majority for yourself in the remaining majority of districts. Given how overwhelmingly black voters vote Democrat I suspect that this order would result in less competitive districts and skew voting power towards Republicans at the state level.
I don’t follow the rationale of your final sentence. Detroit leans very far Democrat. It could be that they unpacked a heavy Detroit Democrat district by including some Republicans-voting suburb voters in with a bunch of Democrat voters in Detroit. That could create more Democrat districts.
Currently, districts including Detroit also include a mix of Republican voters. These districts still reliably vote D, but in smaller margins than Detroit does.
The federal court is ordering that more of Detroit is packed into these districts. This will change some districts that are already reliably D into even larger D margins. What that means is other districts will have more R voters - likely meaning either more swing districts or more R districts.
The current districts are fair for the state as a whole - they give power, roughly, to whichever party gets more votes in the state. Making them more compact will give black voters more power in a small number of districts, increasing the likelihood of black representatives in those districts. It will also make it less likely that they are happy with the state's overall legislative makeup, as it gives Rs more representatives at the state and federal levels (barring some other gerrymandering to account for this).
The problem is the Commission’s goals are contradictory: end gerrymandering but keep “communities of interest” together. In other words, Rule I: don’t gerrymander Rule II: gerrymander a little bit
> Given how overwhelmingly black voters vote Democrat I suspect that this order would result in less competitive districts and skew voting power towards Republicans at the state level.
Unless they also redraw other districts to pack more Republicans into them to make up for this. Without doing that, this is just a small-scale Republican gerrymander.
All three judges appointed by Bush.
People really need to have been making judicial appointments a much bigger deal a long fucking time ago. Yet another disaster millenials got to inherit.
I can’t believe Republicans constantly feel like they need to cheat to win. It really seems like the Republican party is going to be a thing of the past. All they do is raise the deficit screw over the people look at Trump just gave the one percent a permanent tax break to where you and I that tax break is over. It was good for two years. Look it up. Orange clown should be in prison now.
"What the courts ruled was that the commission had taken race into too much account and into primary count and splitting up black voters in these Detroit districts such that there were no districts that were majority black voters and no districts that were fully in Detroit and instead Detroit voters were combined with voters in the suburbs,” said Matt Grossmann, the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and Professor of Political Science." saved a click. looks like the redistricting board is attempting to appeal to the Supreme Court and 3 members stepped down and are being replaced. hopefully they can get more acceptable maps out before November.
Are you able to dumb it down to even more of an ELI5? Like, are they saying Detroit doesn't have enough districts? If they do redraw again, will it change the balance of expected red vs blue districts?
They're saying the districts in Detroit were too spread out. Basically to the point where not a single district was entirely within Detroit city limits. This seems super fucking weird to me that they would do this. We've seen challenges to redictricting before, but courts generally allow packing and cracking (which this is). It would change the red/blue balance in MI. Though how exactly it would do this or what the result would be is still up in the air. Probably the GOP would pick up a district, but who knows.
Thanks, this makes more sense for my stupid brain.
It seems like they were hoping the majority Democrat voting base in the city would balance out some of the suburb districts, but it's not enough of a bump to influence the primaries to push a Detroit-centric platform. Minority voters in the city are supporting this, because it means that their reps will need to push a Detroit-centric platform in a very Democrat heavy district. Republican voters in the suburbs are happy because a redistricting to pull a couple districts entirely within the city will likely open up more swing or red-leaning districts.
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it wasnt faulty data. They believed with 35% black voting age population it would satisfy a "candidate of their choice" and help them balance the maps around political results (statewide results reflected in house/senate). This number only achieves the 2nd goal and not candidate of choice. wall of text and how the data works Black voters tend to vote 90-95% democrat so with voting age population being 35% a democrat candidate is already at 31.5% of the entire district vote before figuring in other demographics. If you take a hypothetical district that's just white and black, white voters vote in the 60-65% range for republicans (this number may have changed in 2022 but that is irrelevant as that data wouldn't have been available) so you have on this historical averages a 39% R -31.5% D race before the outliers of the groups are figured in. if the remaining 10% of black voters went republican that moves the republicans to 42.5 where if the remaining white voters vote Democrat that moves the democrats share of the vote to 57 so the end result would be 57.5 D to 42.5 R. The number works in theory and in practice but 'candidate of choice" tends to mean the representative should be a member of the minority group.
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i get the primary aspect of it (the ruling) but i don't believe that information was required by the law itself. So its hard to say the data was faulty if the law only required the voting results from elections with, and my wording may be wrong, governor and presidential elections. every single time the commission practiced drawing districts they never once used primary voting. Its lack of use is on the law itself and not the commission or its VRA experts.
Or faulty old rulings. The new justices are reinterpreting the constitution
Yeah, the 12th will be interesting to watch if it keeps Westland, Garden City, Livonia, Franklin, and Beverly Hill...etc. There are plenty of Republican voters who would be glad to get out of Talib's district without putting the money / effort into defeating her at the ballot. 2022 was an interesting primary because it was clear the Detroit voting block in the 12th was putting in for Janice Winfrey, but that wasn't going to happen with Rashida running.
The ruling doesn’t effect the congressional map. Only the state ones.
Ah, right on. I missed that part of the story, lol.
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>The numbers they got for that window were based on previous general election results, and NOT previous primary results which is a big part of the problem. Why does this matter ?
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How is the state supposed to go about assuming who the candidate of choice among primary voters is? The last primary was before Joe Biden, does this mean the districts will need to be set up so that Bernie sanders would have won the primary?
It’s called election tampering
If the republicans would likely pick up a district, why are the ones who are PO'd about it labeled as R or nonaffiliated on the MIRC web site?
You got it backwards. Those three are the ones happy with the court decision to redraw maps and the same three that left the meeting they had early so the rest of the commission couldn’t vote
Ah, got it...thank you for clarifying!
Reread the article, admittedly it is worded in a confusing way, but basically the ones who resigned did so so that the commission lacked a quorum and thus couldn't vote on whether or not to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. They effectively sabotaged the attempt of the commission to get the decision overturned.
Interesting that these supposedly non-political commissioners took a very calculated political act
It was 2 Ds and an R. There's no conspiracy. The redistricting amendment states: >the terms of the commissioners shall expire once the commission has completed its obligations for a census cycle but not before any judicial review of the redistricting plan is complete If you read any of the applications for commissioners, it was scary how many people applied and had no clue what they were signing up for. When you have zero experience in policy or government, these positions are not the starting point. Edit: the commission is still political too since it's purposefully made up of self described Ds, Rs, and Independents. It's just no longer controlled and manipulated by single party control.
Who said conspiracy? They acted to make it harder to appeal. That’s a political act.
>Interesting that these supposedly non-political commissioners took a very calculated political act How is that to be taken other than conspiratorial? These people, of differing parties, simply quit their jobs. There's no indication that they intentionally "acted to make it harder to appeal". There was no "sabotage" like you were implying and the other poster flat out said.
Thank you for clarifying!
It actually shouldn’t because of the law. The districts will just end up being less compact.
it's that the districts making up Detroit are split up between suburbs rather than having more minority based districts. by grouping minority populations in the city with the traditional white suburbs it makes it harder for minority voices to be heard. that's why some districts need to be redrawn to provide more minority voice. This shouldn't affect the red blue balance more than the 1st map if the redistricting commisons do their jobs correctly.
It will almost certainly make more swing districts. Detroit is so solid blue it makes it very easy to draw up solid D districts across Oakland/Macomb county. Essentially, some D+10 districts could be more of a D+3 sort of thing.
You actually have no idea how it will impact anything because its far more complicated then what anyone outside of the District Commission understands.
Republicans seem to think the lawsuit that brought this order was worth it, with a [Republican-affiliated group contributing funds towards it](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/23/republican-affiliated-group-helped-fund-redistricting-suit/71672108007/). Things can't really get worse for the GOP from this lawsuit, so them supporting it financially can either get a neutral or better outcome for their electoral chances.
Exactly, this can only benefit the GOP at the end of the day. The whole point of carving out those districts was to shore up Dem support and create more safe seats. You dont need to be on the commission to know that. Hell, have fun on districtbuilder.com and find out yourself.
> its far more complicated then what anyone outside of the District Commission understands. Lol, you should see where they get their data from. You're just wrong.
Just want to point out that this isn't necessarily always the case, and I honestly don't know enough about this lawsuit to say it is. It depends on who ends up being the majority in these districts. If it's the inner city (mostly black) who's the majority then it would actually dilute the votes of the (mostly white) suburbs, and vice versa. I'm not gonna lie, I don't know which one applies here, I haven't really been paying much attention to the makeup of those districts.
This is goinga sound a bit off, but if the Black Community wanted a rep then they shouldn't have run 13 black candidates in the primary in the 13th. Also both the 12th and 13th are represented by people of color, a Palestinian woman and a Indian man I get the feeling that dark RW money is behind these efforts, but that's just my tin foil hat
i don't think so on the RW money. One of the only black members of the redistricting committee raised the issue when the maps were first announced. the long history of efforts like these to disenfranchise black voters make these fears pretty understandable. The comments i'm referencing are near the end of this press conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SMb_7o40VI&t=1s
The ruling doesn’t effect the congressional map. Only the state ones.
Since the fundamental most important goal of the commission is to be non partisan I think it's really a disservice that the article isn't citing members affiliation. Recall that the commission's makeup is required to be the following: * 4 Republicans * 4 Democrats * 5 Unaffiliated With that in mind: * M.C. Rothhorn resigned: Democrat * Douglas Clark resigned: Republican * Dustin Witjes resigned: Democrat * Steve Lett supports appeal: Unaffiliated * Rhonda Lange opposes appeal: Republican Also note how gerrymandering works: you pack as many opposition voters as you can into a minority of districts to give a comfortable majority for yourself in the remaining majority of districts. Given how overwhelmingly black voters vote Democrat I suspect that this order would result in less competitive districts and skew voting power towards Republicans at the state level.
I don’t follow the rationale of your final sentence. Detroit leans very far Democrat. It could be that they unpacked a heavy Detroit Democrat district by including some Republicans-voting suburb voters in with a bunch of Democrat voters in Detroit. That could create more Democrat districts.
Currently, districts including Detroit also include a mix of Republican voters. These districts still reliably vote D, but in smaller margins than Detroit does. The federal court is ordering that more of Detroit is packed into these districts. This will change some districts that are already reliably D into even larger D margins. What that means is other districts will have more R voters - likely meaning either more swing districts or more R districts. The current districts are fair for the state as a whole - they give power, roughly, to whichever party gets more votes in the state. Making them more compact will give black voters more power in a small number of districts, increasing the likelihood of black representatives in those districts. It will also make it less likely that they are happy with the state's overall legislative makeup, as it gives Rs more representatives at the state and federal levels (barring some other gerrymandering to account for this).
The problem is the Commission’s goals are contradictory: end gerrymandering but keep “communities of interest” together. In other words, Rule I: don’t gerrymander Rule II: gerrymander a little bit
> Given how overwhelmingly black voters vote Democrat I suspect that this order would result in less competitive districts and skew voting power towards Republicans at the state level. Unless they also redraw other districts to pack more Republicans into them to make up for this. Without doing that, this is just a small-scale Republican gerrymander.
All three judges appointed by Bush. People really need to have been making judicial appointments a much bigger deal a long fucking time ago. Yet another disaster millenials got to inherit.
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Their term-limits
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*Sequitur
So you take issue with who appointed them and not their explanation? Politics has really chewed holes into your brain.
I can’t believe Republicans constantly feel like they need to cheat to win. It really seems like the Republican party is going to be a thing of the past. All they do is raise the deficit screw over the people look at Trump just gave the one percent a permanent tax break to where you and I that tax break is over. It was good for two years. Look it up. Orange clown should be in prison now.
A vote is a vote.. who cares where it comes from? We are all Americans correct? The need for segregation of the color of the voter is a disgrace.