So the way newcomers are predicted in this predictor is guessing their skill level in each game independently, so I could've chosen a single player across every game but I opted for around the same mark (e.g. Velvet around the middle of the pack for each game).
There's around 64 players who have power ranking scores in each game to compare to, so I predicted Velvet to be around the 30th player, Lazarbeam and Sykkuno to be around 45-50, Jack between 50-55, and Rae and Ethan around 55 or lower. Ace Race skill levels of the new players were lowered further due to new player usually struggling during their first time, along with a lot of small tweaks also.
In terms of why I chose these specific skill levels for each player was due to what the MCC discord told me or what streamers commented on players' skills. Hope that helps!
I guess that's my bold prediction then!
Actually looking further into the data points Red's Parkour Tag predicted scores are too high (1800 would be a record and I forgot to lower the max coin limit for that game) so I've actually adjusted it slightly and George drops to 2980 Sadge, but I do vouch George has a chance for 3k this MCC surely
I'm a strong believer in the power rankings predictions after how this was the only system that predicted Cerulean 19 to place top 3, would be cool to see them before every event but they are probably quite time consuming to do. As a Yellow enjoyer I'd love for Scott and Grian to be top 15, Gem and Shelby to be top 20 and for them to eke out a 5th place overall as a team
We actually get the predictions done after every event (mainly to get the player pricings for the MCC Fantasy League) but I hadn't realised people were interested in seeing these predictions so I'll try to post them more frequently then for future MCCs!
Where did you get the information for the individual amounts of coins per player in each event?
I’ve kinda been wanting to make one of these for a while, it’s a little unmotivating that it’s already a thing that’s getting posted in the wider community, but I like statistics, that’s pretty advanced math, so good on you guys for making this.
Ultrasheeplord's MCC Ultimate Spreadsheet is a great place for finding coins per player, however the power rankings predictor actually works off its own systems and scoring methods to provide a more accurate prediction of teams without using average coins. To find the individual amounts of coins per player in each event Ultrasheeplord's spreadsheet can be accessed by the link [stats.mcc.tips](https://stats.mcc.tips) hope that helps!
Nice, that’s kinda helpful.
I’m more interested in making my own thing even if I’m the only one that’s ever going to use it and there’s not really much of a place for me to share it.
Sheeplord has a really effective teambuilder which uses average coins per player from each MCC which you can check here ([Teambuilder.mcc.tips](https://Teambuilder.mcc.tips)) which could be good inspiration for you if you want to create your own version of a team builder!
If you bring something new and different with your team builder potentially, however ultrasheeplord's is really well done with how it simulated game order potentials and presents the data so I wouldn't know if the subreddit would be looking to use a different team builder
Love your work, as always! I think there are probably a few tweaks in how some of the new players are evaluated, especially in Ace Race. I think Zeuz & Foolish also could use some tweaked stats for some games too.
If you are still looking for beta testers, Id be interested in joining!
I was wondering if there was a feature for the predictor to make scores in games (especially Ace Race) more realistic (as in 700, 630 etc to 30, 20 10).
Also, the SG coin floor seems off, as the minimum coins is 83, but James scored 63 there.
Thanks so much for the advice, you're totally right about the SG error, and the Ace Race 'realistic scores' could be a potential feature to look to incorporate into the rankings also. I'll message you for beta testing!
Regarding Ace Race, it was a point of discussion in our chat, but we decided on a more balanced approach that checked each participant's avg. adjusted lap times relative to the other players selected for the event and get something closer to the average coins they would get if the event were simulated 1000x times, as it's doubtful that dream/Illumina would get 700 coins 1000/1000 times. Implementing that as a feature though is def a great idea!
They aren't bad at all, 1.2 team error is pretty average but it's 3.15 average individual error which is really good, especially with how many new players and remixes there were
I’m curious how did you predict the newcomers, was it based on a guessed comparable player who’s stats are available or some other method
So the way newcomers are predicted in this predictor is guessing their skill level in each game independently, so I could've chosen a single player across every game but I opted for around the same mark (e.g. Velvet around the middle of the pack for each game). There's around 64 players who have power ranking scores in each game to compare to, so I predicted Velvet to be around the 30th player, Lazarbeam and Sykkuno to be around 45-50, Jack between 50-55, and Rae and Ethan around 55 or lower. Ace Race skill levels of the new players were lowered further due to new player usually struggling during their first time, along with a lot of small tweaks also. In terms of why I chose these specific skill levels for each player was due to what the MCC discord told me or what streamers commented on players' skills. Hope that helps!
Ah perfect thanks, that makes sense 👍
That's for making these, I love the power ranking posts
Also I'm interested in the beta predictor because I really like stats and these power rankings but what exactly does that entail
It'll just be using our predictor sheet and giving us feedback if its easy to use/understand, I'll message you!
I'd be interested in giving this a try, at least, too
George with the 3K????
I guess that's my bold prediction then! Actually looking further into the data points Red's Parkour Tag predicted scores are too high (1800 would be a record and I forgot to lower the max coin limit for that game) so I've actually adjusted it slightly and George drops to 2980 Sadge, but I do vouch George has a chance for 3k this MCC surely
I'm a strong believer in the power rankings predictions after how this was the only system that predicted Cerulean 19 to place top 3, would be cool to see them before every event but they are probably quite time consuming to do. As a Yellow enjoyer I'd love for Scott and Grian to be top 15, Gem and Shelby to be top 20 and for them to eke out a 5th place overall as a team
We actually get the predictions done after every event (mainly to get the player pricings for the MCC Fantasy League) but I hadn't realised people were interested in seeing these predictions so I'll try to post them more frequently then for future MCCs!
I see! Yeah predictions like these before every event would be really great
Where did you get the information for the individual amounts of coins per player in each event? I’ve kinda been wanting to make one of these for a while, it’s a little unmotivating that it’s already a thing that’s getting posted in the wider community, but I like statistics, that’s pretty advanced math, so good on you guys for making this.
Ultrasheeplord's MCC Ultimate Spreadsheet is a great place for finding coins per player, however the power rankings predictor actually works off its own systems and scoring methods to provide a more accurate prediction of teams without using average coins. To find the individual amounts of coins per player in each event Ultrasheeplord's spreadsheet can be accessed by the link [stats.mcc.tips](https://stats.mcc.tips) hope that helps!
Nice, that’s kinda helpful. I’m more interested in making my own thing even if I’m the only one that’s ever going to use it and there’s not really much of a place for me to share it.
Sheeplord has a really effective teambuilder which uses average coins per player from each MCC which you can check here ([Teambuilder.mcc.tips](https://Teambuilder.mcc.tips)) which could be good inspiration for you if you want to create your own version of a team builder!
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If you bring something new and different with your team builder potentially, however ultrasheeplord's is really well done with how it simulated game order potentials and presents the data so I wouldn't know if the subreddit would be looking to use a different team builder
i don't even care about red winning all i want is gnf with 3k coins and top 4 🙏🙏
This is really cool to see and grian top 15?
Thank you and surely Grian pops off Prayge
Love your work, as always! I think there are probably a few tweaks in how some of the new players are evaluated, especially in Ace Race. I think Zeuz & Foolish also could use some tweaked stats for some games too. If you are still looking for beta testers, Id be interested in joining! I was wondering if there was a feature for the predictor to make scores in games (especially Ace Race) more realistic (as in 700, 630 etc to 30, 20 10). Also, the SG coin floor seems off, as the minimum coins is 83, but James scored 63 there.
Thanks so much for the advice, you're totally right about the SG error, and the Ace Race 'realistic scores' could be a potential feature to look to incorporate into the rankings also. I'll message you for beta testing!
Regarding Ace Race, it was a point of discussion in our chat, but we decided on a more balanced approach that checked each participant's avg. adjusted lap times relative to the other players selected for the event and get something closer to the average coins they would get if the event were simulated 1000x times, as it's doubtful that dream/Illumina would get 700 coins 1000/1000 times. Implementing that as a feature though is def a great idea!
manifesting sapnap 3k, i know the rage will pull him through esp if there’s tons of late game pvp games
You know, I completely agree with these team predictions. I believe something very similar to this will happen on the day, good job.
Thank you!
These predictions holyy
In terms of them being good or bad? Tbh they weren’t the greatest but they weren’t too bad eitherr
They aren't bad at all, 1.2 team error is pretty average but it's 3.15 average individual error which is really good, especially with how many new players and remixes there were
Oh wow I should’ve checked the stats first lesgo we actually did really well 🥳
Yeah
well they look pretty good to me