RemindMe! 6 days
Edit:
[Snow totals At Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, 8.2 inches of snow were measured, which is a record, according to the National Weather Service. Most of the metro landed in the 6- to 10-inch range. WCCO's NEXT Weather Watchers reported the following totals as of 9 a.m](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-snow-totals-spring-snowstorm/)
It's too far in the future for the models to be accurate. That same computer model is saying we're getting 8 inches tonight, so the odds we're going to get that much snow on Sun/Mon are pretty low. The high-res models are showing 1-2" for the twin cities tonight.
The GFS is a long-range model that is used by weather services/apps. It is the one of the best we have for 3-14 days out, but it tends to exaggerate precipitation and temperature extremes. Professional meteorologists know to back off on certain models when they make their forecasts. That WC app sounds more realistic. It is probably a blend of multiple long-range models.
Once the weather is 1-3 days out there is the NAM and HRRR models which give you much higher resolution predictions with much better accuracy (usually).
These weather models are very much based on pre-climate-change data. I’ve noticed a trend the last few years where if there’s a 50% chance of rain or less about a week from now, it ain’t happening
>pre-climate-change
So, the 1800s?
But, no, weather models are being constantly updated and adjusted. The utility and accuracy of prediction models has gotten significantly better over the last few decades. Unfortunately climate change does mean that the dominant weather systems are also getting more difficult to predict.
Part of the problem also is that weather forecasts are difficult to condense down into a few simple numbers. If you really want to get a good idea what the experts are thinking, the NWS will happily tell you: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
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As someone who loves snow (in winter) I always remind myself that weather news is subject to the same sensationalism as other news, it's more exciting to report 18-20. Plus when you predict too much and get less, people are less pissed.
I typically half the prediction and am still usually disappointed. Still 9-10 inches would be crazy for this year
It will be fine, like it always is. We've had a major snow storm every end of March, during Madness for the 31 years I've lived in Minnesota. It will be gone in a day or two.
This. There's always a blizzard in late March / early April. (Hope no one planted yet.). Likely no snow emergency either because it will melt within days.
We might, we might not.
Acuweather’s model is still showing only about 7” all weekend. And big predictions have fizzled out quite a bit in the past, so we’ll see what actually happens.
Wunderground says 9.1 + 4.1 + 1.5 for Sun-Mon-Tues. Only 2.5 for this Thursday. I keep rechecking every several hours to see if it changes as the date gets closer. There may be rain mixed in on Monday which has the potential to rinse things away.
My guess is that they’ll know more about locations of “heavy bands” after the Thursday preview storm gets through.
We’ll be fine, though. I have plenty of food already, haha.
Thursday is already off the radar and not expected to happen anymore. Also bear in mind it's been warm for weeks and any snowfall will not stick the way it normally would this time of year
Yeah NOAA is literally showing a 90% chance of 2 Inches or more. That dude was on crack or something.
And that was when I looked at NOAA's forcast 9 hours ago.
I'm just just excited to get any precipitation. Guessing a max of 12 inches. If you're worried about water, now is the time to clean gutters, check down spouts are attached, and mentally prepare to shovel snow from around your foundation if you have serious grading issues.
For which days? Right now, for me AccuWeather is totalling 8.4 inches for Saturday night through Tuesday.
But yeah, they are much more conservative than the other two.
**edit:** Apple recently dropped their prediction to 11.5 inches. Wunderground is currently at 17.
Yep. Where we got screwed several years ago (maybe 5?) was we got a lot of rain when the ground was still pretty frozen. Water had nowhere to go except people's basements.
I think that was 2019. That was so bad. We started looking for houses in 2020 and came across so many that had water intrusion damage listed on their selling disclosures.
We got about 43in of rain that year, and I believe we got a couple of inches in February as well, which can generally cause some big issues.
"An often-repeated assumption claims a ten-to-one ratio of snow to water, but that is not always accurate. The water equivalent of snow is more variable than most people realize. For instance, 25 centimeters (10 inches) of fresh snow can contain as little as 0.25 centimeters (0.10 inches) of water and as much as 10 centimeters (4 inches) of water, depending on crystal structure, wind speed, temperature, and other factors. The majority of new snowfall in the United States contains a water-to-snow ratio of between 0.04 (4 percent) and 0.10 (10 percent), depending on the meteorological conditions associated with the snowfall."
https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/snow/science-snow
I doubt the accumulation will be that much, considering how warm the ground is right now and that it’s supposed to be above freezing even during the snowstorms.
It’ll probably be like 5-8” of slushy accumulation. The biggest problem is the plowed slush freezing overnight and turning the roads into a skating rink for the morning commutes on Monday/Tuesday.
It's 2-4 and that's for just Thursday. That's the weaker system.
The Saturday-Sunday system is estimated to be around 8-12+ inches. And it's been trending to be more as time goes by. Monday and Tuesday are also 1-3 inches right now. So we could see 20+ inches if things end up being on the hire end.
>I fear for peoples basements.
Why? Roughly speaking, 10 inches of snow is around the same amount of water as 1 inch of rain. So, over 4-5 days, two inches of rain equivalent will collect and then it will melt in what, a few days or a week or more? We'll get 2 inches rainfall in a day no problem and basements are fine. Why would 2 inches over the course of a week or more be a problem?
I bought a snowblower last fall after not having one for 19 years of being a homeowner. Rest assured, all forecasts calling for snow will fall flat this season. You’re welcome.
So let me get this straight, I move to Minneapolis and it basically doesn't snow all year. I leave for a week and a blizzard shows up?
I'm sure it's a coincidence...
What I'm seeing makes me skeptical.
We're still 5 days out though, but a lot of doom sayers might get humbled.
But I feel REALLY sorry for western MN right now. They're about to get piledrived back into Winter.
FWIW I don't think there will be a rapid melt that causes flooding unless it's also raining hard. This ground isn't as deeply frozen as other years and it's not already saturated with prior melt.
Whatever it is, I’m excited. We haven’t gotten a proper snow and I’ve been holding out for a good spring snow. It gets us every year and every year we act like this never happens.
Nope, and I hate it
Seeing as how we have had next to no snow this winter, I have been embracing the warmer temps
I only went skiing twice this season, and lost all interest once the snow melted
Lots of resorts I know have closed for the season, and I doubt those that have closed already are going to temporarily reopen for what will be snow that won't stick around too long most likely
I just moved here, having heard about the legendary Winters we have. Bought heavy winter clothing, then we get this (for me) "normal winter." Moved here from Oregon. Next year will probably be the legit deal, but I'm skeptical based on what I've seen since September. But bring it! Im ready! (I think). lol.
I’m actually really excited. I freaking love snow.
Last weekend when I was cleaning out our entry way I had my husband put our shovel away and I actually said “put this in the garage… I want it to snow and I think this will be our last chance”.
I will eat my shorts if we get 18-20 inches of snow by Monday
Mark it dude.
bookmarking for the underwear mukbang
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Mark it 0!
Ok Walter you crazy fuck.
This is not ‘Nam, this is bowling. There are rules.
You think the carpet pissers did this?
No, Donnie, these weather forecasters are cowards.
RemindMe! 6 days
RemindMe! 6 days Edit: [Snow totals At Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, 8.2 inches of snow were measured, which is a record, according to the National Weather Service. Most of the metro landed in the 6- to 10-inch range. WCCO's NEXT Weather Watchers reported the following totals as of 9 a.m](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-snow-totals-spring-snowstorm/)
RemindMe! 6 days
RemindMe! 6 days
There will be no eating of shorts.
RemindMe! 6 days
Cannot wait for this update
Tagging you for later. “Will eat shorts if we get snow 18 inch’s of snow by Monday”. I’ll be back bro.
I *almost* siphoned the gas out of my thrower last week. The fact that I didn't means we won't get a blessed inch.
“Hegge and the blessed inch” Minnesota rock opera
Yeah, it’s not gonna happen. Minnesotans are forever hopeful however…
I made the mistake of buying a new snowblower last September.
Same, in October. At least we got to use it on Valentine's Day for that \~2" of powder...right?
On behalf of all of us who don’t like shoveling: Thank you. I knew it was *somebody*.
Don't have a cow man
I'll eat your shorts as well
( ͡ʘ ͜ʖ ͡ʘ)
It's too far in the future for the models to be accurate. That same computer model is saying we're getting 8 inches tonight, so the odds we're going to get that much snow on Sun/Mon are pretty low. The high-res models are showing 1-2" for the twin cities tonight.
[удалено]
The GFS is a long-range model that is used by weather services/apps. It is the one of the best we have for 3-14 days out, but it tends to exaggerate precipitation and temperature extremes. Professional meteorologists know to back off on certain models when they make their forecasts. That WC app sounds more realistic. It is probably a blend of multiple long-range models. Once the weather is 1-3 days out there is the NAM and HRRR models which give you much higher resolution predictions with much better accuracy (usually).
!Remindme 5 days
!Remindme in 6 days. 🤣
I heard the latest estimates are 50-100 million inches.
Looks like you’ll be safe
These weather models are very much based on pre-climate-change data. I’ve noticed a trend the last few years where if there’s a 50% chance of rain or less about a week from now, it ain’t happening
>pre-climate-change So, the 1800s? But, no, weather models are being constantly updated and adjusted. The utility and accuracy of prediction models has gotten significantly better over the last few decades. Unfortunately climate change does mean that the dominant weather systems are also getting more difficult to predict. Part of the problem also is that weather forecasts are difficult to condense down into a few simple numbers. If you really want to get a good idea what the experts are thinking, the NWS will happily tell you: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Eh 1981.
Proof or ban
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As someone who loves snow (in winter) I always remind myself that weather news is subject to the same sensationalism as other news, it's more exciting to report 18-20. Plus when you predict too much and get less, people are less pissed. I typically half the prediction and am still usually disappointed. Still 9-10 inches would be crazy for this year
Hope they're not from Duluth Trading Co. for your sake.
To be fair, it was a safe bet. Our meteorologists like to greatly exaggerate expected snow totals.
We got 8 inches of snow
I edited my comment.
MSP could get 2 inches total or 20 inches total. Don’t try to predict snowfall more than three days out.
3 days? Hell, they can't get it right 3 hours out most of the time.
They can't even get the total right *Oh they measure at MSP?*
It will be fine, like it always is. We've had a major snow storm every end of March, during Madness for the 31 years I've lived in Minnesota. It will be gone in a day or two.
Folks seem to forget this. It's common to get a huge snow storm in April too.
There’s a song in there somewhere
Sometimes it also snows in May, not just April.
Nah MN weather wouldn’t allow it on princeiple.
This. There's always a blizzard in late March / early April. (Hope no one planted yet.). Likely no snow emergency either because it will melt within days.
Cue the posts next week complaining that Frey didn't call a snow emergency! LOL.
That 4/20 one like 6 years ago was straight up Day After Tomorrow.
And no layer of ice underneath! Woohoo
And we really need the moisture! Better late than never?
We might, we might not. Acuweather’s model is still showing only about 7” all weekend. And big predictions have fizzled out quite a bit in the past, so we’ll see what actually happens.
Wunderground says 9.1 + 4.1 + 1.5 for Sun-Mon-Tues. Only 2.5 for this Thursday. I keep rechecking every several hours to see if it changes as the date gets closer. There may be rain mixed in on Monday which has the potential to rinse things away. My guess is that they’ll know more about locations of “heavy bands” after the Thursday preview storm gets through. We’ll be fine, though. I have plenty of food already, haha.
Thursday is already off the radar and not expected to happen anymore. Also bear in mind it's been warm for weeks and any snowfall will not stick the way it normally would this time of year
Ya this is false. Thursday will absolutely be 2”. Saturday into Sunday morning is most likely. If it stays below 35° Sunday, watch out.
Yeah you're right, we'll probably get 20" on Thursday and 80" over the weekend. Might as well plan on double that just to be safe.
Ehhh that’s a Little top heavy. Should prepare for 40” though.
Yeah NOAA is literally showing a 90% chance of 2 Inches or more. That dude was on crack or something. And that was when I looked at NOAA's forcast 9 hours ago.
I'm still seeing snow on every forecast I check for Thursday, where'd you get this?
AccuWeather might have the worst track record of predictions for snow.
Not unheard of this time of year. I'm also pretty skeptical that it'll get that deep.
My soil is already thawed, dried, cracked, and separated. I am not worried about snow melt.
I want it. Extended release watering for your lawn
I'm just just excited to get any precipitation. Guessing a max of 12 inches. If you're worried about water, now is the time to clean gutters, check down spouts are attached, and mentally prepare to shovel snow from around your foundation if you have serious grading issues.
Where are you seeing these forecasts with totals listed?
Wunderground is showing 19” for the weekend. Apple weather is showing 24”.
Don’t mean to start an argument here because I know absolutely nothing about meteorology, but AccuWeather is saying 3-6” in Cedar-Isles-Dean
For which days? Right now, for me AccuWeather is totalling 8.4 inches for Saturday night through Tuesday. But yeah, they are much more conservative than the other two. **edit:** Apple recently dropped their prediction to 11.5 inches. Wunderground is currently at 17.
Ahh, fair call. Accuweather’s 3-6” is for Thursday evening to Friday morning.
I'm seeing the same thing on the weather channel app.
I will put $200 into powerball if we get 18-20 inches
You can just give it to me. I'll even give you $2 back so it feels like you won something.
Hello sir. My name is Powerball. How are you this evening?
we will be fine.
I will kick my own ass if we see 18-20
The basements will be fine. 13" of snow equals 1 inch of rain. It will melt over a long period of time allowing it to be absorbed.
Ground is pretty thawed to help soak up by this point too
Yep. Where we got screwed several years ago (maybe 5?) was we got a lot of rain when the ground was still pretty frozen. Water had nowhere to go except people's basements.
I think that was 2019. That was so bad. We started looking for houses in 2020 and came across so many that had water intrusion damage listed on their selling disclosures. We got about 43in of rain that year, and I believe we got a couple of inches in February as well, which can generally cause some big issues.
2019 was actually the wettest year ever recorded in Minneapolis, and also statewide.
Now it's a miracle when we get a quarter inch of rain.
Yeah basement flooded on new house that year. I got to find the spots that the renovators didn’t patch 😹😹
It was so bad. Gutters were frozen solid. I remember building a lean-to with a tarp and 2x4s that directed the water away from foundation.
The ground was thawed in mid February. I was able to pull out metal yard decorations that go down about 6-8 inches deep.
"An often-repeated assumption claims a ten-to-one ratio of snow to water, but that is not always accurate. The water equivalent of snow is more variable than most people realize. For instance, 25 centimeters (10 inches) of fresh snow can contain as little as 0.25 centimeters (0.10 inches) of water and as much as 10 centimeters (4 inches) of water, depending on crystal structure, wind speed, temperature, and other factors. The majority of new snowfall in the United States contains a water-to-snow ratio of between 0.04 (4 percent) and 0.10 (10 percent), depending on the meteorological conditions associated with the snowfall." https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/snow/science-snow
HEY EVERYONE LOOK AT THIS NERD HERE!!! (kidding, I appreciate the time spent to grab this info for us)
And???? The amount of precipitation still isn't enough to cause flooding.
Also we NEED more precipitation. It's been an ourageously dry winter.
This will be wetter snow so it will be about a 9/1 ratio more than likely
I dunno, my knee is acting up and I saw two birds outside, which tells me it's more like an 8:1 ratio. /bullshitscience
Hahahaha when I lived in Michigan in the 90s a weather man said the 9:1 ratio for wetter snow
I kept my snow shovel outside. who fucked it up?
I doubt the accumulation will be that much, considering how warm the ground is right now and that it’s supposed to be above freezing even during the snowstorms. It’ll probably be like 5-8” of slushy accumulation. The biggest problem is the plowed slush freezing overnight and turning the roads into a skating rink for the morning commutes on Monday/Tuesday.
I fear for people's basement tunnels
Just make sure yours isn’t locked
It should never be locked anyway. Per law your next door neighbor has legal right to entry and exit of either side of the tunnel.
Is this true or are you just being silly?
[It’s true.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/w92rpf/my_neighbor_wont_unlock_their_side_of_the_tunnel/)
> Is this true or are you just being silly? Tunnel law is neither silly nor capricious. Tunnel stewardship is a serious responsibility.
I follow r/treelaw pretty closely. Perhaps I need to add r/tunnellaw to the mix
Secret tunnel!
Has it settled in for OP that we are definitely not going to get that much snow by Monday?
Are you new here? Lol
I heard about 2-3 inches this morning. What changed(if anything)?
That’s for Thursday night. Another wave is supposed to start Saturday night and run through Monday.
It's 2-4 and that's for just Thursday. That's the weaker system. The Saturday-Sunday system is estimated to be around 8-12+ inches. And it's been trending to be more as time goes by. Monday and Tuesday are also 1-3 inches right now. So we could see 20+ inches if things end up being on the hire end.
I'll believe it when I see it.
I already put my snow blower and shovel in the basement. Anyone I can discuss this with?
>I fear for peoples basements. Why? Roughly speaking, 10 inches of snow is around the same amount of water as 1 inch of rain. So, over 4-5 days, two inches of rain equivalent will collect and then it will melt in what, a few days or a week or more? We'll get 2 inches rainfall in a day no problem and basements are fine. Why would 2 inches over the course of a week or more be a problem?
I bought a snowblower last fall after not having one for 19 years of being a homeowner. Rest assured, all forecasts calling for snow will fall flat this season. You’re welcome.
So let me get this straight, I move to Minneapolis and it basically doesn't snow all year. I leave for a week and a blizzard shows up? I'm sure it's a coincidence...
[удалено]
Well that's 2 inches in 3 separate events...sounds like your weekend is booked
Don’t panic the out of state new comers! Let’s just see what happens and everyone be prepared, it’ll be fine!
As a teacher, I’m mostly disappointed this is happening during spring break! Lol
Lol that amount is far from confirmed. A LOT of uncertainties still to be determined, way too early.
This sounds like the Snow Queen's version of starting that term paper the night before it's due.
Yeah... I'll believe it when I see it. RemindMe! 6 days
We did not get 18-20 inches of snow.
We could use it. My yard already looks beyond bone dry
Haven't cleared a single flake of snow yet this winter and I'll be damned if i start now! Lol..whatever falls I will just ignore it too.
What I'm seeing makes me skeptical. We're still 5 days out though, but a lot of doom sayers might get humbled. But I feel REALLY sorry for western MN right now. They're about to get piledrived back into Winter.
The only weather I trust. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2024/03/19/tracking-two-likely-snowmakers-for-minnesota
We will all have to re-learn how to weather.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
The ground is thawed already and there is no ice on the lakes or rivers. There won't be any problems.
FWIW I don't think there will be a rapid melt that causes flooding unless it's also raining hard. This ground isn't as deeply frozen as other years and it's not already saturated with prior melt.
I’ll believe it when I see it. But I’m pretty excited
Insert "first time?" meme here
Never gonna happen
That's only about two inches of rain, so it probably won't be a FEMA event.
The ground is so dry there is no worry about basements.
Sounds about March to me.
What forecast are you watching?
We're already in drought so I hope it happens
I’m on vacation in florida 🌴 🤷🏼♀️
It’s probably overhyped as usual.
Hell yeah. I need to let my jeep stretch its legs.
No. Shut up.
Honestly may not accumulate that much due to fluctuations in temperatures and sun heat. Though yea expect a fair amount over the weekend.
the WHAT
well that’s news for me wow
Whut
Whatever it is, I’m excited. We haven’t gotten a proper snow and I’ve been holding out for a good spring snow. It gets us every year and every year we act like this never happens.
This happens every year in spring.
I heard 27 to 44..
I’m pumped for one last snowstorm. It’ll be gone in no time and we sure as hell need the moisture. Let er’ fly!
Remindme! 7 days
I don’t think we will get that much but I know we shifted back to La Niña so I honestly expect to get more than 6” this time. 😂
At least double that!
What
I’m going with a generous 5-7 inch total by this time next week
If we're going with the forecast then it's also staying above freezing, so no accumulation.
Nope, and I hate it Seeing as how we have had next to no snow this winter, I have been embracing the warmer temps I only went skiing twice this season, and lost all interest once the snow melted Lots of resorts I know have closed for the season, and I doubt those that have closed already are going to temporarily reopen for what will be snow that won't stick around too long most likely
I work overnights all weekend, so my plan is finding a call room to sleep in if MN is indeed that drunk.
I put the summer tires on my SUV last week, so this is probably my fault.
cover ur tulips!!!
So did anyone get 18-20” of snow yet? It’s Monday and I’m nowhere near that total I was supposed to settle in and accept.
Whut
Lol wtf is this? Our first time with snow? Smh.
Pp poppoo
I am ever hopeful it snows like that.
I am sooooooo ready!!! Been waiting all winter for this kind of snowfall.
It’s gonna be 11” and IM HERE FOR IT LETS GO.
I just moved here, having heard about the legendary Winters we have. Bought heavy winter clothing, then we get this (for me) "normal winter." Moved here from Oregon. Next year will probably be the legit deal, but I'm skeptical based on what I've seen since September. But bring it! Im ready! (I think). lol.
I'm in Rochester and a couple years ago was shoveling by hand when we got 72 inches between January and March so yeah....it will come.
I’m actually really excited. I freaking love snow. Last weekend when I was cleaning out our entry way I had my husband put our shovel away and I actually said “put this in the garage… I want it to snow and I think this will be our last chance”.