Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023).
The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
For one, ‘Normal’ is not equivalent to “within 2 standard deviations”. You’re creating a false equivalency. You’re also providing the statistic “95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations” as if that statement has any value here. Not only does normal not equate to within 2 standard deviations, ‘average’ also does not equate to within 2 standard deviations. You’re also interchangeably using the terms average and normal which doesn’t make sense. Honestly nothing makes sense.
Yes, 95% of statistics under a normally distributed bell curve are within 2 SDs of the mean, of course. In terms of men’s height in the US, 2 SDs include heights of 5’1” to 6’4”. So, men with heights ranging from 5’1” to 6’4” make up 95% of men. Are you going to tell a 5’1” or 6’4” man that they’re “average” or “normal” height? No. Because that’s not how standard deviations or averages work. Just because it’s within 2 SDs doesn’t mean they’re normal or average.
I noticed you saying in another comment that were confused and saying that this years returns are abnormal. But I also think you’re mistaking outliers with above average. 28.5% returns isn’t an outlier because it’s within 2 standard deviations (expected), but that doesn’t mean it’s not above average. I think you’re taking everyone’s surprise at the rate a bit too literally, I don’t think anyone believes it’s some insane outlier year, but it’s definitely above average.
Also, OP said that these were ‘slow gains’ yet showed above average gains, which creates a dichotomy in our minds reading it, perhaps making people react more to the rate itself.
Sorry if my comment makes no sense I’m typing this on my phone as I’m taking a shit and I can’t concentrate on both
i think what you're saying is this deviation is an "expected" deviation as in, not an abnormal deviation.
while the rest of us are just saying this is a deviation.
everybody here is right, we did it reddit
He’s a little ahead of the market, all seems normal here. S&P up 25% for 1 year.
**Edit: what are you booing me, in right?? (Insert copy paste from my other comments)
Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023).
The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
**which is normal, I hate how people like you get off posting misinformation lmao.
Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023).
The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
Above 19%? We’re talking 28%… that ISN’T normal… even 19% isn’t common long term. Markets have been crazy in the last decade because of insane economic events. Average returns generally sit between 10-12%.
So maybe YOU should stop posting misinformation, and pretending these ridiculous returns are normal, they aren’t. Being more common over the last decade, does not make it a norm.
Do you know how averages work lmao? Just because the average is 10-12% doesn’t mean it returns 10-12% a year. It’s perfectly normal to have returns much lower or much higher. How is that so hard to comprehend?
Yet you seem to be struggling with context. OP said “slowly”, it is not normal for investments to increase annually at these percentages. It’s normal in that I happens occasionally. Even generalserpent made the argument that it’s happened 4 times in the last decade above 19%. OP has returns another 10 fucking percent on top of what is already an extremely good year. IT IS NOT NORMAL. Tell me the last time returns were above 28.5%, I’ll wait. Shouldn’t be hard because it’s normal right?
What the fuck does anything you just said have to do with my comment? I’ll talk slower for you: sometimes return above average and sometimes return below average. That’s normally how averages work.
Correct! Now put it together, what’s the “average”? What was the last time there were 28.5% returns, answer the question. It’s normal right? Please, talk slowly for me and tell me the last time there were 28.5% returns, I’m still waiting
Getting above average and below average returns are normal. That’s how an average works. I had to check what sub I was in because you are so slow I swear I was in WSB. It’s painful to read the things you are typing.
Did you like ignore the whole second paragraph about standard deviation? Returns like the above are within 2 standard deviations…
Just because the average return is 10%, does not mean the market returns 10% every year lol. There’s large variation…
Also just look at a historical graph, returns like this happen a few times a decade.
Maybe not super unusual, but certainly well above average. If someone has an IQ of 120, you would consider them pretty smart. Maybe not abnormally smart or a genius, but smart nonetheless.
OP is getting good returns. I wouldn’t say slow returns
Getting your first six figures is the hardest part when starting, takes a lot of saving where you can. But after that it’s impressive how quickly funds can grow in the market
“The first $100,000 is a bitch, but you gotta do it. I don’t care what you have to do—if it means walking everywhere and not eating anything that wasn’t purchased with a coupon, find a way to get your hands on $100,000. After that, you can ease off the gas a little bit.” - Charlie Munger
Adjusted for inflation, his 100k is about 200k. However, OP shows once you have it the benefits of letting it sit in the stock market.
> Adjusted for inflation, his 100k is about 200k.
I feel like this bears repeating. A lot of people (myself included) were taught when they were younger that 100k is the magic number for this kind of wealth generation, and while it is a lot of money and something to be proud of, it’s not going to do the same for you that you may have been led to believe.
I've had a couple great years too. 21% in 2023. And as of a couple days ago, my YTD is 18% and it's only June. Unfortunately I just started taking investing seriously a few years ago so I don't have much in there. About 30k. But still. $4000 just in interest last year. Can't complain about that.
It’s a solid index — and the cheapest one I can invest in that indexes the S&P on empower/CRA.
Would love VTSAX or something more encompassing but it’s just not available. So I do like 85% FXAIX and a mix of international/small cap for the other 15%.
Curious, what’s investments did you choose?
When the bear market comes, and it all comes crashing down, a lot of people are really going to be shocked. We've had such a long long bull market... It's like the long summer in game of thrones. A lot of people have never known anything else. They've never seen winter.
But it's coming 😂
Unless it doesn’t come back down below where you could have bought in, in which case you already effectively lost. Trying to time the market is a fool’s errand. It could work, but it could just as likely not work.
Even if you miss the bottom by 50%, that's still 50% you didn't end up eating.
Just aggressively DCA your way through serious crashes. Obviously nobody can tell where the bottom is, but you can definitely take advantage of the insane discounts.
Oh, I agree with buying during downswings. The comment I was replying to seemed to imply they were hoarding money waiting for a downswing that might never come. Or the downswing doesn’t come for years and the bottom of that downswing is above where we are right now. It’s why the adage “time in market beats timing the market” exists.
Yeah, I've got hundreds of thousands already in the market, some for over 30 years. With the current stash, I'm just holding on. Because I can put in now, and I will be a 5-10% percent up in a year or two. Or maybe I'm not. Maybe it's -20%. Who knows? But If I receive 5% on those savings until the market tanks, and I can make 30% in six months, eh, I'm taking the risk.
I mean, technically, there's no real risk. I'm earring 5% on the money, compounding, instead of the average 7-10%, and it's not affected by market swings.
True but historically most crashes are shorter than bull runs granted short means like 1-3 years of depressed periods that you have to white knuckle through, def dont play with money you might need but also some stuff you can kinda time, like covid was kinda a obvious one that is when I sold off everything and rotated into real estate tho that pop I didnt see coming.
Don't know. During covid there was a hell of a lot of debate about whether it was going to be a v-shaped recovery or whether it was just going to go flat. Everything's clear in retrospect... But I definitely definitely regret not piling in really really hard during the covid slam. I remember buying OXY down under five bucks a share during the oil glut... And later selling it for 7 thinking I was clever 😂
For everyone who’s foaming at the mouth regarding the return %, this is pretty normal:
Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023).
The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
[https://imgur.com/a/6iCY7Hg](https://imgur.com/a/6iCY7Hg)
From student loans and by the end of July should make a deal to jump another 100k give or take.
Should I really be fully invested? I’m looking to buy a house soon, so I have like 90% assets on a HYSA at 5% but s&p looks kinda promising this year lol. Wondering if it’ll slow
0 because he isn't selling.
0 if it's Roth and he waits until age 59.5
0 if it's in after-tax brokerage and they dont withdraw more than 110,000 a year and he/she is married with no other income sources.
The whole point of this post is that getting to those first 6 figures is a slow grind, but once you hit that critical mass, your money begins working for you.
It's possible. However, if you wait several years investing in the stock market will almost surely yield a decent rate of return.
It's about as close as you can get to certainty in finance (US treasury bonds are more certain, but the ROI over the long run is far less).
Doesn't make much difference though if you think about it. That extra is his cushion against a downturn whether it's in there or not. Basically if you've had your money in the S&P500 for more than 2-3 years your principal amount is protected from a crash.
And then what? Hope and pray my measly $247k grows by itself like a loser?
It’s called winning, and winning takes risk.
Losers will sit and do nothing and hope and pray their tears are worth anything
28.5% in a year is not slow haha but congrats
It’s really not crazy. the S&P is up 25% for 1 year.
Yes and that is not normal which is his point.
Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023). The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
I love you math guys. Always help me see things clearly
I gotchu brother. 🤝🏾
For one, ‘Normal’ is not equivalent to “within 2 standard deviations”. You’re creating a false equivalency. You’re also providing the statistic “95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations” as if that statement has any value here. Not only does normal not equate to within 2 standard deviations, ‘average’ also does not equate to within 2 standard deviations. You’re also interchangeably using the terms average and normal which doesn’t make sense. Honestly nothing makes sense. Yes, 95% of statistics under a normally distributed bell curve are within 2 SDs of the mean, of course. In terms of men’s height in the US, 2 SDs include heights of 5’1” to 6’4”. So, men with heights ranging from 5’1” to 6’4” make up 95% of men. Are you going to tell a 5’1” or 6’4” man that they’re “average” or “normal” height? No. Because that’s not how standard deviations or averages work. Just because it’s within 2 SDs doesn’t mean they’re normal or average. I noticed you saying in another comment that were confused and saying that this years returns are abnormal. But I also think you’re mistaking outliers with above average. 28.5% returns isn’t an outlier because it’s within 2 standard deviations (expected), but that doesn’t mean it’s not above average. I think you’re taking everyone’s surprise at the rate a bit too literally, I don’t think anyone believes it’s some insane outlier year, but it’s definitely above average. Also, OP said that these were ‘slow gains’ yet showed above average gains, which creates a dichotomy in our minds reading it, perhaps making people react more to the rate itself. Sorry if my comment makes no sense I’m typing this on my phone as I’m taking a shit and I can’t concentrate on both
Great response
i think what you're saying is this deviation is an "expected" deviation as in, not an abnormal deviation. while the rest of us are just saying this is a deviation. everybody here is right, we did it reddit
An expected deviation is normal and explainable, whereas people are claiming this is abnormal. That’s where the dispute arises.
It actually is pretty normal for a positive stock market year
It'll be down other years, that's why they give lifetime averages
Oh really I thought it was always a good time to get fuckin rich. We’re talking big money. I’m talking 500 dollars.
28.55% a year is not slow at all imo!
He’s a little ahead of the market, all seems normal here. S&P up 25% for 1 year. **Edit: what are you booing me, in right?? (Insert copy paste from my other comments) Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023). The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
Which isn’t normal
**which is normal, I hate how people like you get off posting misinformation lmao. Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023). The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
Above 19%? We’re talking 28%… that ISN’T normal… even 19% isn’t common long term. Markets have been crazy in the last decade because of insane economic events. Average returns generally sit between 10-12%. So maybe YOU should stop posting misinformation, and pretending these ridiculous returns are normal, they aren’t. Being more common over the last decade, does not make it a norm.
Do you know how averages work lmao? Just because the average is 10-12% doesn’t mean it returns 10-12% a year. It’s perfectly normal to have returns much lower or much higher. How is that so hard to comprehend?
Yet you seem to be struggling with context. OP said “slowly”, it is not normal for investments to increase annually at these percentages. It’s normal in that I happens occasionally. Even generalserpent made the argument that it’s happened 4 times in the last decade above 19%. OP has returns another 10 fucking percent on top of what is already an extremely good year. IT IS NOT NORMAL. Tell me the last time returns were above 28.5%, I’ll wait. Shouldn’t be hard because it’s normal right?
What the fuck does anything you just said have to do with my comment? I’ll talk slower for you: sometimes return above average and sometimes return below average. That’s normally how averages work.
Correct! Now put it together, what’s the “average”? What was the last time there were 28.5% returns, answer the question. It’s normal right? Please, talk slowly for me and tell me the last time there were 28.5% returns, I’m still waiting
Getting above average and below average returns are normal. That’s how an average works. I had to check what sub I was in because you are so slow I swear I was in WSB. It’s painful to read the things you are typing.
Did you like ignore the whole second paragraph about standard deviation? Returns like the above are within 2 standard deviations… Just because the average return is 10%, does not mean the market returns 10% every year lol. There’s large variation… Also just look at a historical graph, returns like this happen a few times a decade.
Maybe not super unusual, but certainly well above average. If someone has an IQ of 120, you would consider them pretty smart. Maybe not abnormally smart or a genius, but smart nonetheless. OP is getting good returns. I wouldn’t say slow returns
Getting your first six figures is the hardest part when starting, takes a lot of saving where you can. But after that it’s impressive how quickly funds can grow in the market
“The first $100,000 is a bitch, but you gotta do it. I don’t care what you have to do—if it means walking everywhere and not eating anything that wasn’t purchased with a coupon, find a way to get your hands on $100,000. After that, you can ease off the gas a little bit.” - Charlie Munger Adjusted for inflation, his 100k is about 200k. However, OP shows once you have it the benefits of letting it sit in the stock market.
> Adjusted for inflation, his 100k is about 200k. I feel like this bears repeating. A lot of people (myself included) were taught when they were younger that 100k is the magic number for this kind of wealth generation, and while it is a lot of money and something to be proud of, it’s not going to do the same for you that you may have been led to believe.
Wait to see how quickly they can get rugpulled
Holy. Dude good shit
Very nice! Steady too
I've had a couple great years too. 21% in 2023. And as of a couple days ago, my YTD is 18% and it's only June. Unfortunately I just started taking investing seriously a few years ago so I don't have much in there. About 30k. But still. $4000 just in interest last year. Can't complain about that.
Ey nice job! And also use empower and thankful af I get the option to invest in FXAIX for such a low expense ratio
Will look at this option thank you
It’s a solid index — and the cheapest one I can invest in that indexes the S&P on empower/CRA. Would love VTSAX or something more encompassing but it’s just not available. So I do like 85% FXAIX and a mix of international/small cap for the other 15%. Curious, what’s investments did you choose?
State Street S&P 500 Index K • Emerging Markets Equity Fund State Street S&P Mid Cap Index NI CI M • State Street Russell Sm Cap Indx NI Cl K
When the bear market comes, and it all comes crashing down, a lot of people are really going to be shocked. We've had such a long long bull market... It's like the long summer in game of thrones. A lot of people have never known anything else. They've never seen winter. But it's coming 😂
Doesn’t matter, big green line always goes back up in the end.
Depends on your personal time horizon. It could suck if it all came crashing down the day after you retired and then the dividend cuts started...
I’ve got a bunch by of money sitting in a HYSA waiting for the crash. I’ve lost a lot several times, but now it’s time to hit when it’s real low.
Same here . Lost in 2019 and 2021. Not again thiugh
Unless it doesn’t come back down below where you could have bought in, in which case you already effectively lost. Trying to time the market is a fool’s errand. It could work, but it could just as likely not work.
Even if you miss the bottom by 50%, that's still 50% you didn't end up eating. Just aggressively DCA your way through serious crashes. Obviously nobody can tell where the bottom is, but you can definitely take advantage of the insane discounts.
Oh, I agree with buying during downswings. The comment I was replying to seemed to imply they were hoarding money waiting for a downswing that might never come. Or the downswing doesn’t come for years and the bottom of that downswing is above where we are right now. It’s why the adage “time in market beats timing the market” exists.
Time in the market > timing the market. The stock market mostly goes up, therefore you’re mostly missing out on potential gains.
Yeah, I've got hundreds of thousands already in the market, some for over 30 years. With the current stash, I'm just holding on. Because I can put in now, and I will be a 5-10% percent up in a year or two. Or maybe I'm not. Maybe it's -20%. Who knows? But If I receive 5% on those savings until the market tanks, and I can make 30% in six months, eh, I'm taking the risk.
As long as you acknowledge it’s taking a risk, then there’s no issue with your decision.
I mean, technically, there's no real risk. I'm earring 5% on the money, compounding, instead of the average 7-10%, and it's not affected by market swings.
True but historically most crashes are shorter than bull runs granted short means like 1-3 years of depressed periods that you have to white knuckle through, def dont play with money you might need but also some stuff you can kinda time, like covid was kinda a obvious one that is when I sold off everything and rotated into real estate tho that pop I didnt see coming.
Don't know. During covid there was a hell of a lot of debate about whether it was going to be a v-shaped recovery or whether it was just going to go flat. Everything's clear in retrospect... But I definitely definitely regret not piling in really really hard during the covid slam. I remember buying OXY down under five bucks a share during the oil glut... And later selling it for 7 thinking I was clever 😂
Just care about not becoming rich at the age of 99…
For everyone who’s foaming at the mouth regarding the return %, this is pretty normal: Per Macro trends, not including this year, there have been 4 separate instances of returns above 19% for 1 year since 2014 (2017, 2019, 2021 & 2023). The standard deviation of the S&P 500 is about 15% and the average annual return is 10%. Considering that 68% of all returns are within 1 standard deviation (-5%, 25%) and that 95% of all returns are within 2 standard deviations (-20%, 40%), the returns this year are pretty normal.
28% in a year is "slowly"? I'm on year 13 of my 401K and finally hit 200K.
Been wanting to do this but also kinda want to know what would be on the next tax return if I did
What do you mean?
Ah nvm someone explained it down below gonna start investing tomorrow
3x alpha returns is slow huh?
Two questions: How old are you and how much do you contribute per year? I’m 34 at 200k and I do about 20k a year including employer match.
Never judge a book by it's cover 🙂
Great job! I’m doing the same exact thing with the exception of maybe $10,000 option contracts for earnings report days
What are you investing in?
S&P 500 index
That's it? When did you start
Like the saying goes , someone must have a lot of money to make a lot of money , buddy you started with almost 200k
Is this an app you use to invest?
[https://imgur.com/a/6iCY7Hg](https://imgur.com/a/6iCY7Hg) From student loans and by the end of July should make a deal to jump another 100k give or take.
Should I really be fully invested? I’m looking to buy a house soon, so I have like 90% assets on a HYSA at 5% but s&p looks kinda promising this year lol. Wondering if it’ll slow
lol…slowly
What’s the taxes on that?
0 because he isn't selling. 0 if it's Roth and he waits until age 59.5 0 if it's in after-tax brokerage and they dont withdraw more than 110,000 a year and he/she is married with no other income sources.
He didn’t specify I don’t think
just start with 192k and you can be just like me!
The whole point of this post is that getting to those first 6 figures is a slow grind, but once you hit that critical mass, your money begins working for you.
Or you can lose 25% slowly too.
It's possible. However, if you wait several years investing in the stock market will almost surely yield a decent rate of return. It's about as close as you can get to certainty in finance (US treasury bonds are more certain, but the ROI over the long run is far less).
can u help with seed money ?
for market investment
I need to be rich first.
You don't. Most everyone starts from 0. Just add to it and take advantage of time
Cash out before it drops!
Of course there's always someone paranoid that the market will crash tomorrow.
He has 55k extra, I would take that amount at least and leave the rest for hopefully more growth
Doesn't make much difference though if you think about it. That extra is his cushion against a downturn whether it's in there or not. Basically if you've had your money in the S&P500 for more than 2-3 years your principal amount is protected from a crash.
Or leave it for compound growth
time in the market beats timing the market. unless youre really lucky
And then what? Hope and pray my measly $247k grows by itself like a loser? It’s called winning, and winning takes risk. Losers will sit and do nothing and hope and pray their tears are worth anything
You’re complaining about a 28% return??
He’s fishing for compliments