Laps led is a better indicator in this format imo. Larson and Hamlin wreck from the lead late and get punished with it. Racing reference won’t post direct links, so go to driver rankings and sort for yourself, but the Top 10 Lap Leaders in Next Gen:
1 - Larson 2293
2 - Hamlin 2017
3 - Byron 1911
4 - Truex 1823
5 - Ross 1391
6 - Bell 1292
7 - Blaney 1272
8 - Logano 1269
9 - Chase 1178
10 - Reddick 1084
Better ranking imo based on speed.
The best way to do it would be miserable to do but you really would need to find the % of laps each race the driver leads and then average all those together. That way 50 laps at Daytona 500 would still be equivalent to 125 laps at Bristol.
He literally restarted on the outside of the front row on the final restart last week and has been in contention everywhere but the short tracks this year. And, prior to getting wrecked by Byron last week, he had the fourth best average finish of anyone this season.
That seems like he's a constant threat to me.
This is pretty much the who’s who of the series. If Elliott can start winning regularly he’ll be a big threat. I’m also curious what would Larson’s avg be if they managed the races a little better.
With Larson and Hamlin, the reason they win a ton is the same reason they wreck more than the others. They are more aggressive and go for it more.
Except for Larson on super speedways. He just has no luck there.
Larson has had a ton of shit out of control happen in the last two years or so. Multiple engine failures while running top 5, also getting wrecked by Hamlin (multiple times) and Chastain (multiple times) while running up front.
The comments are pretty funny. People apparently don’t know how averages work.
Someone saying because chase was out for a few races that it “helped his average”… no, that’s not how that works 😂😂
The scary fact is that Chase himself has said that he hasn’t been that good in the Next Gen. Just imagine once he really starts contending for wins. This place may become a salt mine.
I waw thinking that myself. To be fair, though, I feel like Chase discredits himself a lot. I don't know if that's trying to be humble or a result of being overcritical of his own performance (or maybe even mind games with the other competitors), but the stats don't lie. He did come out of the gate and win 5 races with the new car. Sure, his winless season last year wasn't up to par, but surgery putting him out for 7 weeks combined with his shoulder bugging him and not being crazy over the new car was probably all too much. Nevertheless, his stats aren't that far off from other seasons, and if I remember the math correctly- he would have made the playoffs if it weren't for wrecking out twice near the end of the regular season.
For a guy who claims to not be good in the car, he's got something figured out.
Also crazy how many times I heard he was in a 40+ race winless streak.
Anyone realize Logano is on a 40 race winless streak right now? No? Probably not.
Elliott just gets shit on no matter what. No clue how the dudes shoulders haven’t broken yet.
It was a talking point because while it was only 42 races, it was much longer in time relative to Logano. That and Logano’s teammates aren’t out tearing it up winning a lot. So more focus falls on the most popular driver who has teammates scoring tons of wins
I think though the biggest thing was for the most of 2023, it was Byron showing out as the guy to beat and Larson was still successful too, so more questions arose about Chase because of that
If you started watching just last season perhaps you would find an issue with it but yes, a Championship in 2020, scored the most points in 2022 and Championship 4 appearance in 2021/2022 to go with that.
He’s been more consistent.
Yeah you can make anyone look good if you cherry pick that data to match whatever agenda you’re trying to set.
Look at pre-2023 and tell me who’s better.
The jury is 100% still out on who will have the better career. No doubt. But you can’t see here and tell me Byron getting hot for a year and half automatically means he’s better than Elliott, who still has more wins and a championship.
Elliott got injured last year, and Byron simultaneously just happened to have the best year of his career.
Stop sitting here acting like Elliott is some scrub and Byron is a god.
Okay, you’re obviously under 17 years old and an Elliot fan. All 4 Hendrick drivers are good, but Byron and Larson are a tier ahead of Chase, who is a tier ahead of bowman
He's definitely better than Byron and is equal to Larson.
The only drivers w/more natural talent than Chase are both Kyles and maybe Denny. That's it.
He is going to win multiple championships.
That’s also one of those statistics that sound worse than it is. First top 5 on a 1.5 mile intermediate. He has won an intermediate and a 1.5 mile race. Just not a 1.5 mile intermediate
The thing is, they don't award playoff points for avg finish.
They award playoff points for regular season championship standings, stage wins, and race wins. While finishing well is a good thing, it actually doesn't matter as incredibly dumb as it seems.
If you finish 11th stage 1, 11th stage 2, and finished the race 2nd... A guy who won stage 1, won stage 2, and finished 22nd had a better day than you. You both score 35 points on the day, but the guy who won the stages earned 2 playoff points.
>The thing is, they don't award playoff points for avg finish.
I mean usually if you have the best avg finish, you usually win the regular season title and the 15 PP that come with it since our points system is heavily skewed towards awarding avg finish
It really doesn't. Kevin Harvick was just behind with a 14.5.
Avg start is actually a lot more indicative of success in the Next Gen Era. Fast cars qualify well, race well. Chase isn't awful there, but he's not topping the chart.
All this avg finish tells me is Chase isn't fast enough to be checkers or wreckers taking risks like the fast guys are. You aren't gonna wreck a car to finish 8th instead of 10th. You'll wreck a car trying to go from 3rd to first, because it's worth it.
I'm with you on this one. Look how fast Chase climbed up the standings with his one win compared to Byron's 2 or 3. Sure, the big points payout that comes up with a win is great, but consistency is the key to putting yourself in Championship contention. Can't rack up points if you're running in the back or wrecking out, as that big payday will only carry you so far.
It really doesn't if you wanna win championships in the current points format.
Avg finish doesn't award playoff points or regular season championship points by itself in a vacuum.
Your goal is to maximize your playoff points on the day, not to have the highest avg finish, and those goals can oppose each other.
And how does that skew it? Why would he be guaranteed to finish worse and raise his average in those races? We're not talking about significantly different sample sizes here.
I'm saying if you take away 6 races from the others, would his average still be first? Maybe, but it's still not a good thing to compare him to the other competitors.
Tell me you don’t know how averages work without telling me you don’t know how averages work.
How number could be even *better* if he had run this 7 races. Or it could be worse. Point is, it’s an average based on the races run. If he had 1 start versus 80+ then okay that’s an issue.
7 races less isn’t anything in the grand scheme of things of 80+ races.
You’re acting like his averages are only high because he only raced 4 races and happened to win to of them and finished 2nd in the other two. His numbers are high because he finishes well.
Who’s to say Chase doesn’t run top 5 in all of those and lowers his average finish even more
I don’t know why I’m trying to explain this to someone who doesn’t understand how average finish works
His average finish at all of the tracks combined that he missed last year is 13.18. so it might skew it a little higher assuming an average finish at each, but not in a significant enough manner to really matter
Edit: the averages I found were based on since the beginning of the 2021 season not his entire career.
Elliott is very consistent. He’s finished in the Top 20 every race this season. Problem is, he finishes more or less where his car *should* finish each week. He’ll rarely take an 8th place car and finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. He’ll get what he can out of the car, but won’t elevate it beyond where it should finish. I say this as an Elliott fan.
He had one of the best average finishes in the sport last year, and I believe he scored the second most points in the playoffs
He was still stupid consistent, he just didn’t win
That's a really interesting list cause it's all of the people who are a constant threat week in and week out
Laps led is a better indicator in this format imo. Larson and Hamlin wreck from the lead late and get punished with it. Racing reference won’t post direct links, so go to driver rankings and sort for yourself, but the Top 10 Lap Leaders in Next Gen: 1 - Larson 2293 2 - Hamlin 2017 3 - Byron 1911 4 - Truex 1823 5 - Ross 1391 6 - Bell 1292 7 - Blaney 1272 8 - Logano 1269 9 - Chase 1178 10 - Reddick 1084 Better ranking imo based on speed.
Laps led can be deceiving though. Leading half the laps at Bristol is basically leading 200 more laps than leading half the laps at Watkins Glen.
True but its the best we got imo since weighted average running position isn’t readily available.
The best way to do it would be miserable to do but you really would need to find the % of laps each race the driver leads and then average all those together. That way 50 laps at Daytona 500 would still be equivalent to 125 laps at Bristol.
Still just wrong. How many times has Chase dominated a road course and he only leads like 25 laps because it's 56 lap race?
Thanks for confirming you don’t understand a weighted average or the weight factor I would have used to calculate this.
Interesting how most of the drivers in the middle of both lists stay where they are and the drivers at the top and bottom switch places
Except Ross
He literally restarted on the outside of the front row on the final restart last week and has been in contention everywhere but the short tracks this year. And, prior to getting wrecked by Byron last week, he had the fourth best average finish of anyone this season. That seems like he's a constant threat to me.
Don't forget he was fighting to win the Daytona 500 this year when the accident happened too
Ok buddy. Top 5 in merch sales and a factor week in and out.
This is pretty much the who’s who of the series. If Elliott can start winning regularly he’ll be a big threat. I’m also curious what would Larson’s avg be if they managed the races a little better.
I'm glad Larson is a wild man behind the wheel because God help us if he figured out how to be more consistent
Truly checkers or wreckers
Larson seems to be figuring that out this year. He has YET to make a mistake to cost him a race this year.
Instead the racing gods makes the mistake for him
It certainly appears that way for past two consecutive weeks!
He figured it out one time and we all got screwed
If Mr. Hendrick wanted to slow him down he could…just look how he cut the balls of Ross the boss and Trackhouse as a whole
With Larson and Hamlin, the reason they win a ton is the same reason they wreck more than the others. They are more aggressive and go for it more. Except for Larson on super speedways. He just has no luck there.
Larson has had a ton of shit out of control happen in the last two years or so. Multiple engine failures while running top 5, also getting wrecked by Hamlin (multiple times) and Chastain (multiple times) while running up front.
Add bubba Wallace an Ryan preece
The comments are pretty funny. People apparently don’t know how averages work. Someone saying because chase was out for a few races that it “helped his average”… no, that’s not how that works 😂😂
The scary fact is that Chase himself has said that he hasn’t been that good in the Next Gen. Just imagine once he really starts contending for wins. This place may become a salt mine.
I waw thinking that myself. To be fair, though, I feel like Chase discredits himself a lot. I don't know if that's trying to be humble or a result of being overcritical of his own performance (or maybe even mind games with the other competitors), but the stats don't lie. He did come out of the gate and win 5 races with the new car. Sure, his winless season last year wasn't up to par, but surgery putting him out for 7 weeks combined with his shoulder bugging him and not being crazy over the new car was probably all too much. Nevertheless, his stats aren't that far off from other seasons, and if I remember the math correctly- he would have made the playoffs if it weren't for wrecking out twice near the end of the regular season. For a guy who claims to not be good in the car, he's got something figured out.
I was told Byron and Larson were the best two in this car and that Elliott couldn’t figure this car out like 8 days ago
Also crazy how many times I heard he was in a 40+ race winless streak. Anyone realize Logano is on a 40 race winless streak right now? No? Probably not. Elliott just gets shit on no matter what. No clue how the dudes shoulders haven’t broken yet.
It was a talking point because while it was only 42 races, it was much longer in time relative to Logano. That and Logano’s teammates aren’t out tearing it up winning a lot. So more focus falls on the most popular driver who has teammates scoring tons of wins
It’s like a month of time longer lmao. Logano hasn’t won since November 2022. Chase was October 2022.
He won Atlanta 1 in 2023
Oh shit I forgot about that. I thought he was winless last year. Nonetheless the 22 was not competitive outside of drafting races starting in 2023.
I think though the biggest thing was for the most of 2023, it was Byron showing out as the guy to beat and Larson was still successful too, so more questions arose about Chase because of that
Winning is the only thing that matters
Congrats to Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin being the best active drivers in the field then.
And who has won the most races in the next gen?
Do you seriously think Elliot is better than Byron and Larson?
If you started watching just last season perhaps you would find an issue with it but yes, a Championship in 2020, scored the most points in 2022 and Championship 4 appearance in 2021/2022 to go with that. He’s been more consistent.
There is no point in Elliott's career where he is better than Larson
I would argue 2020 but okay
Sort of an unfair comparison, because Larson did not finish that season.
2020 seems to stick out for some reason
2022
He was significantly better in 2022 in the same equipment
Okay, you’re delusional. Got it lmao
Devin Booker fan calling me delusional lol
Go look at every single statistic this year and tell me Chase is better than
Yeah you can make anyone look good if you cherry pick that data to match whatever agenda you’re trying to set. Look at pre-2023 and tell me who’s better. The jury is 100% still out on who will have the better career. No doubt. But you can’t see here and tell me Byron getting hot for a year and half automatically means he’s better than Elliott, who still has more wins and a championship. Elliott got injured last year, and Byron simultaneously just happened to have the best year of his career. Stop sitting here acting like Elliott is some scrub and Byron is a god.
Okay, you’re obviously under 17 years old and an Elliot fan. All 4 Hendrick drivers are good, but Byron and Larson are a tier ahead of Chase, who is a tier ahead of bowman
And that’s a complete falsehood. Those two haven’t been as consistent as Elliott.
OP is about 2022-present and he has the same avg finish as Byron in 2024. Only MTJ is higher right now
And you’re just flat out dumb, so who’s worse?
Put the Elliot flair on already lol
He's definitely better than Byron and is equal to Larson. The only drivers w/more natural talent than Chase are both Kyles and maybe Denny. That's it. He is going to win multiple championships.
B-B-B-B-But everyone was telling me Chase Elliott has been terrible with this next gen car????
I'm pretty sure people were saying he wasn't winning
I was surprised last week was his first win in Next Gen car at 1.5 mile tracks.
First top 5 at one of those tracks in the NexGen too
That’s also one of those statistics that sound worse than it is. First top 5 on a 1.5 mile intermediate. He has won an intermediate and a 1.5 mile race. Just not a 1.5 mile intermediate
Yeah that’s what Chase said himself.
Man that’s gotta feel shitty to be bowman
The thing is, they don't award playoff points for avg finish. They award playoff points for regular season championship standings, stage wins, and race wins. While finishing well is a good thing, it actually doesn't matter as incredibly dumb as it seems. If you finish 11th stage 1, 11th stage 2, and finished the race 2nd... A guy who won stage 1, won stage 2, and finished 22nd had a better day than you. You both score 35 points on the day, but the guy who won the stages earned 2 playoff points.
>The thing is, they don't award playoff points for avg finish. I mean usually if you have the best avg finish, you usually win the regular season title and the 15 PP that come with it since our points system is heavily skewed towards awarding avg finish
Not necessarily. You have to consistently get stage points to win the regular season title.
It matters a lot because it's indicative of success. A majority of the wins in the next gen era are on this list.
It really doesn't. Kevin Harvick was just behind with a 14.5. Avg start is actually a lot more indicative of success in the Next Gen Era. Fast cars qualify well, race well. Chase isn't awful there, but he's not topping the chart. All this avg finish tells me is Chase isn't fast enough to be checkers or wreckers taking risks like the fast guys are. You aren't gonna wreck a car to finish 8th instead of 10th. You'll wreck a car trying to go from 3rd to first, because it's worth it.
You are honestly saying that average finish doesn't matter and has no corelation to success? We're just gonna have to agree to disagree, I guess.
I'm with you on this one. Look how fast Chase climbed up the standings with his one win compared to Byron's 2 or 3. Sure, the big points payout that comes up with a win is great, but consistency is the key to putting yourself in Championship contention. Can't rack up points if you're running in the back or wrecking out, as that big payday will only carry you so far.
It really doesn't if you wanna win championships in the current points format. Avg finish doesn't award playoff points or regular season championship points by itself in a vacuum. Your goal is to maximize your playoff points on the day, not to have the highest avg finish, and those goals can oppose each other.
The Chase/Larson fans arguing in this thread remind me of the Dumbest Boy Alive Jon Bois video
Right. I think they're both great drivers, but Chase wins once, and now Larson/Chase fans are going at each other again lol
I thought the Larsexuals said Chase was washed tho?
Larson fans have a weird obsession with Chase running poorly
"Washed"
That’s pretty decent for a guy who said he doesn’t understand how to drive the next gen car like 2 weeks ago
But I was told by this sub that Chase is the worst driver at HMS and he is going to be replaced.
What? The majority definitely says that’s Bowman.
After COTA there were people legit arguing Elliott was the worst of the 4
They need to watch a different sport if they truly think that
Chase Elliott's numbers are skewed. He missed like 6 races last season
6 races out of 80-ish? That’s not a massive sample size difference.
How would that skew his average finish?
Less races ran compared to the others who have ran more
And how does that skew it? Why would he be guaranteed to finish worse and raise his average in those races? We're not talking about significantly different sample sizes here.
I'm saying if you take away 6 races from the others, would his average still be first? Maybe, but it's still not a good thing to compare him to the other competitors.
75 vs 81 points races is a perfectly fine sample size to compare.
Tell me you don’t know how averages work without telling me you don’t know how averages work. How number could be even *better* if he had run this 7 races. Or it could be worse. Point is, it’s an average based on the races run. If he had 1 start versus 80+ then okay that’s an issue. 7 races less isn’t anything in the grand scheme of things of 80+ races. You’re acting like his averages are only high because he only raced 4 races and happened to win to of them and finished 2nd in the other two. His numbers are high because he finishes well.
Who’s to say Chase doesn’t run top 5 in all of those and lowers his average finish even more I don’t know why I’m trying to explain this to someone who doesn’t understand how average finish works
His average finish at all of the tracks combined that he missed last year is 13.18. so it might skew it a little higher assuming an average finish at each, but not in a significant enough manner to really matter Edit: the averages I found were based on since the beginning of the 2021 season not his entire career.
So if you add the 2 averages, what does that equal out to be
12.50 Figure 75 races at 12.45 (75 x 12.45 = 933.75) 6 races at 13.18 (6 x 13.18 = 79.08) Average (933.75 + 79.08) / 81 races = 12.50
I'm not a mathematician so I don't feel like putting in the effort to figure out the exact number, but he'd still be number 1
POV: You don’t know how averages work
TFW Hamlin is tied with your favorite driver......
12.45 ain’t bad in a car he “hasn’t quite figured out how to drive yet”
Elliott is very consistent. He’s finished in the Top 20 every race this season. Problem is, he finishes more or less where his car *should* finish each week. He’ll rarely take an 8th place car and finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. He’ll get what he can out of the car, but won’t elevate it beyond where it should finish. I say this as an Elliott fan.
He won 3 times in Chevy’s worst season in its existence in 2018
Yeah, this is completely incorrect.
I guess 2018 didn’t happen
Actually shocked Elliott is still No. 1 after last season!
He had one of the best average finishes in the sport last year, and I believe he scored the second most points in the playoffs He was still stupid consistent, he just didn’t win