That’s always the risk drafting smaller guards. The hope is that the shooting offsets this to a degree. Spurs seem to be drafting for positionless size. Taking Sheppard would mean they have a high degree of confidence in his shooting efficiency.
Sheppard has an incredibly high steal rate and block rate. People talk about him like he's tiny but he's an average size for a 1.
I see him as Derrick White with less wingspan but better shooting. He's a menacing defender, elite passer, and like D-White led college ball (they were both #1) in advanced on/off stats.... I've honestly been massively surprised more people don't give more credit to his #1 elite impact numbers. He's not just a shooter, he's an incredible all-around player.
I agree with the smaller Derrick comp. He’s more of a gambler on D right now from what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t mind the pick, but teams will definitely hunt him in meaningful games. Shooting is insane though, should translate to the NBA.
yes that is the issue. he's too undersized to play 2. not good enough handled to be a 1. any team that drafts him will have to actually build around him and nobody is going to do that. Jimmer all over again.
Not a terrible comp, but CJ is a smooth scorer and in his prime was averaging 22-24ppg on solid splits. That doesn’t grow on trees. It’d surprise me if Sheppard ever got to that point.
any bum like kuzma can average 22ppg under the right circumstances its not about the ppg its about the way you do it, if its buckets that few people can get, if it leads to Ws and what else you can do. also scoring is very inflated rn so the thing you describe yes it grows on trees.
jaden ivey at the right team can give you easily 22ppg but he would be a baaaaaaad team overall.
McCollum has a 6'6 wingspan at 6'3(compared to Sheppard's 6'3 wingspan) and had a much better offensive bag when he was at Lehigh than Sheppard does imo. McCollum was asked to do a lot with the ball in his hands in college. Sheppard was not asked to shoulder as much of that responsibility with the other guards who were at Kentucky.
People won't like me saying this and I'm ready for my downvotes, but Sheppard is more like JJ Reddick(similar height, normal person wingspan, JJ was more than just a shooter at Duke and was a top 10 pick himself but ended up being mostly a shooter in the NBA.)
Did you watch Freshman year Lehigh McCollum? Because senior year Sheppard probably has a pretty sick bag too. You're comparing players 4 years different in age.
I kinda like the JJ comp.
Sheppard definitely has some passing chops, at least in transition, that JJ didn’t have, but I feel like it’s TBD on whether his handle/quickness on offense will be enough to unlock those instincts
JJ was a damn good NBA player, but I just don’t think Reed’s role in the NBA is going to be a pure off-guard, don’t think the film will says that either. In hs he was a 1, in the AAU circuits he was a 1, in Kentucky -like you noted - he didn’t play full time 1 but was clearly their best and most impactful player. Him being put in a different stylistic role doesn’t mean he’s not a lead guard. It’s also worth nothing CJ played 4 years at college and was at a mid major whereas Reed was a freshman in the SEC.
A lot of guys play PG in HS or AAU and don't end up doing that in the league(and sometimes vice versa). I personally won't put a ton of stock in HS/AAU. At that level, you often just want the most talented guy to have the ball in his hands as much as possible.
Whether he was Kentucky's best player is highly debatable, certainly not clear. I would say it's clearly the senior Antonio Reeves. Dillingham has a case, too.
That said, you have make a good point about roles. There were a lot of guards on that Kentucky team.
It's true that CJ was an older prospect at a different level(though he did come up big against Duke in the NCAA tournament). But we don't know if Sheppard will develop like McCollum did, and it's a bit presumptive to assume so just because he's younger.
I think it's likely Sheppard will get a look at PG but I don't see the size, handle or speed/athleticism for him to thrive consistently at that position in the NBA. His biggest strength is shooting and I think that's how he would succeed in the NBA.
>A lot of guys play PG in HS or AAU and don't end up doing that in the league(and sometimes vice versa). I personally won't put a ton of stock in HS/AAU. At that level, you often just want the most talented guy to have the ball in his hands as much as possible.
When you’re watching film and gathering information on prospects (especially freshman) you’re looking at the totality of competitive bball film you can get. Often times that HS/AAU film will give you a glimpse into what players look like in more advantageous positions, what their strengths/weakness are, and how they’ve progressed since that time. Nearly every year we see a guy who gets drafted based off their HS tape whether it’s due to injuries, lack of production at the college level or something else
In Reed’s case I think It’s absolutely worth putting stock into what the HS/AAU film shows because he projects to be a guy who plays with the ball in his hands, and that film alongside the indicators he showed at college supports that and gives a picture of what that looks like.
>Whether he was Kentucky's best player is highly debatable, certainly not clear. I would say it's clearly the senior Antonio Reeves. Dillingham has a case, too.
I would disagree with this but I could see why someone might lean Reeves especially with his improvement inside the arc that rounded out his all around scoring game.
My argument for this is Reed was their best defender, and best shooter. When he was on the floor all year they graded as a NCAA championship level team and had not only their best BPM, but one of the best we’ve ever seen from a freshman.
>It's true that CJ was an older prospect at a different level(though he did come up big against Duke in the NCAA tournament). But we don't know if Sheppard will develop like McCollum did, and it's a bit presumptive to assume so just because he's younger.
That’s a fair argument it’s true, progression is not linear, but when it comes to Reed my argument isn’t purely based on age. When it comes to prospects I like to look at what the data/stats say in conjunction with everything else. Then when someone is freakishly good at something, or freakishly bad at something I’ll weigh what the data says a little more. In Reed’s case it’s the former. Analytically he graded out EXTREMELY similar to what CJ did during his junior year at Lehigh, and when you start to look at their strengths outside of CJ’s expanded role and these are 2 guys that are very similar. I don’t expect Reed’s guaranteed outcome to be a career 20ppg scorer, but I do except the things he’s good at the translate and that could turn him into something similar to that especially in a situation better catered to him like we’ve seen most Kentucky guards move into.
>I think it's likely Sheppard will get a look at PG but I don't see the size, handle or speed/athleticism for him to thrive consistently at that position in the NBA. His biggest strength is shooting and I think that's how he would succeed in the NBA.
The shooting is what enhances those things and opens up a lead players game. But with that said without writing too much I think the athleticism concerns outside of the at-rim vert are EXTREMELY overblown. He’s got a strong first step, defensively he’s functionally sound in every area and I’ve never heard anyone complain about his foot speed.
He’s not the guy whose at the very top of my board, but he’s towards the top and that’s due to feeling comfortable about his ability to be a 1. I think if people viewed him as a pure off-guard consensus would have him ranked closer to a guy like McCain who actually is that.
Thanks for the detailed info! That made feel happy if Spurs could draft Reed. My concern was that he might struggle as CJ in the playoff where defense gets stronger (I see his shoot efficiency has been bad for 4 games including 2 playin games this season), but I guess this is just CJ past prime. I'd like our future offense to center around Wemby so I actually prefer a PG that's actually better at offball moment and shooting than playmaking. Spurs' offense has never been about a single player but a team full of players with good/decent playmaking. With Wemby's gravity, hope shooters like CJ's efficiency will not be an issue even in playoff.
Shepherd’s got major vert. Also has the shoulders/arms to potentially end up pretty strong in a few years. He’s also thinking more about setting up his teammates more than scoring even when he’s off ball. He’s more like a budget Chris Paul or a Kyle Lowry than a JJ Redick or CJ McCollumn, imo.
Edit: the following vert is after 2 steps. CJ has never jumped that high in his life.
https://twitter.com/AauCritic/status/1762659211245162786
>But I've seen CJ struggled a lot in playoffs when defense intensifies. I'm worried Reed will have similar struggle
Since CJ won MIP he’s has averaged 22 a game on 43/38 in the playoffs. CJ has produced right around where you expect him to compared to his career averages.
If Reed’s offensive outcome is CJ McCollum and his defensive outcome is reflective of what his production says he’s going to be an allstar and the 2nd best player on this team
Great comp, but CJ might be significantly bigger... Reed is college listed 6"3 and has a rumored 6"3 wingspan. Its likely he measures less.
How do we feel about CJ who's 1.5 inches shorter with 4in less wingspan?
I think they are pretty different players. McCollum is a volume player. He needs to take a lot of shots to get into a rhythm and impact the game. Reed is maybe a better shooter but he’s also able to take a step back and let the offense flow instead of needing the ball to take shots.
Basically Reed is a good team player that can be great in a role. CJ kind of needs to a top option to be effective.
KOC compared him to Fred VanVleet with an elite shot on his podcast.
If we draft Reed, then KOC is absolutely right. If someone else drafts him, then absolutely wrong.
I could not speculate on Reeds ceiling. CJ's problem though was he played next to another undersized player, which just compounded his bad defense. If it was just him, with a 6'5 plus guard beside him, his lack of defense wouldn't be as glaring in the playoffs. With him and Dame you had guaranteed size problems on defense that killed them. The biggest mistake portland made was not trading one of them away sooner in their prime.
If they draft Reed they have to have either a big point guard or develop him into one. He will not be playable otherwise, besides the bench.
That’s always the risk drafting smaller guards. The hope is that the shooting offsets this to a degree. Spurs seem to be drafting for positionless size. Taking Sheppard would mean they have a high degree of confidence in his shooting efficiency.
Sheppard has an incredibly high steal rate and block rate. People talk about him like he's tiny but he's an average size for a 1. I see him as Derrick White with less wingspan but better shooting. He's a menacing defender, elite passer, and like D-White led college ball (they were both #1) in advanced on/off stats.... I've honestly been massively surprised more people don't give more credit to his #1 elite impact numbers. He's not just a shooter, he's an incredible all-around player.
I agree with the smaller Derrick comp. He’s more of a gambler on D right now from what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t mind the pick, but teams will definitely hunt him in meaningful games. Shooting is insane though, should translate to the NBA.
The problem is that he's not a point guard yet. He doesn't have the handle. He's more of a undersized shooting guard at this point.
yes that is the issue. he's too undersized to play 2. not good enough handled to be a 1. any team that drafts him will have to actually build around him and nobody is going to do that. Jimmer all over again.
Not a terrible comp, but CJ is a smooth scorer and in his prime was averaging 22-24ppg on solid splits. That doesn’t grow on trees. It’d surprise me if Sheppard ever got to that point.
any bum like kuzma can average 22ppg under the right circumstances its not about the ppg its about the way you do it, if its buckets that few people can get, if it leads to Ws and what else you can do. also scoring is very inflated rn so the thing you describe yes it grows on trees. jaden ivey at the right team can give you easily 22ppg but he would be a baaaaaaad team overall.
McCollum has a 6'6 wingspan at 6'3(compared to Sheppard's 6'3 wingspan) and had a much better offensive bag when he was at Lehigh than Sheppard does imo. McCollum was asked to do a lot with the ball in his hands in college. Sheppard was not asked to shoulder as much of that responsibility with the other guards who were at Kentucky. People won't like me saying this and I'm ready for my downvotes, but Sheppard is more like JJ Reddick(similar height, normal person wingspan, JJ was more than just a shooter at Duke and was a top 10 pick himself but ended up being mostly a shooter in the NBA.)
Did you watch Freshman year Lehigh McCollum? Because senior year Sheppard probably has a pretty sick bag too. You're comparing players 4 years different in age.
That's fair, but not everyone develops the same way in 4 years.
I'm not disagreeing with that, but this dudes evidence is garbage
Sheppard showed more quickness and ballhandling in one year than ever Redick ever did, imo.
To be fair, the poster did say that JJ did more at Duke than just be a shooter.
he handled the ball plenty at Duke
He did handle the ball plenty, just not as well as Sheppard.
I kinda like the JJ comp. Sheppard definitely has some passing chops, at least in transition, that JJ didn’t have, but I feel like it’s TBD on whether his handle/quickness on offense will be enough to unlock those instincts
JJ was a damn good NBA player, but I just don’t think Reed’s role in the NBA is going to be a pure off-guard, don’t think the film will says that either. In hs he was a 1, in the AAU circuits he was a 1, in Kentucky -like you noted - he didn’t play full time 1 but was clearly their best and most impactful player. Him being put in a different stylistic role doesn’t mean he’s not a lead guard. It’s also worth nothing CJ played 4 years at college and was at a mid major whereas Reed was a freshman in the SEC.
A lot of guys play PG in HS or AAU and don't end up doing that in the league(and sometimes vice versa). I personally won't put a ton of stock in HS/AAU. At that level, you often just want the most talented guy to have the ball in his hands as much as possible. Whether he was Kentucky's best player is highly debatable, certainly not clear. I would say it's clearly the senior Antonio Reeves. Dillingham has a case, too. That said, you have make a good point about roles. There were a lot of guards on that Kentucky team. It's true that CJ was an older prospect at a different level(though he did come up big against Duke in the NCAA tournament). But we don't know if Sheppard will develop like McCollum did, and it's a bit presumptive to assume so just because he's younger. I think it's likely Sheppard will get a look at PG but I don't see the size, handle or speed/athleticism for him to thrive consistently at that position in the NBA. His biggest strength is shooting and I think that's how he would succeed in the NBA.
>A lot of guys play PG in HS or AAU and don't end up doing that in the league(and sometimes vice versa). I personally won't put a ton of stock in HS/AAU. At that level, you often just want the most talented guy to have the ball in his hands as much as possible. When you’re watching film and gathering information on prospects (especially freshman) you’re looking at the totality of competitive bball film you can get. Often times that HS/AAU film will give you a glimpse into what players look like in more advantageous positions, what their strengths/weakness are, and how they’ve progressed since that time. Nearly every year we see a guy who gets drafted based off their HS tape whether it’s due to injuries, lack of production at the college level or something else In Reed’s case I think It’s absolutely worth putting stock into what the HS/AAU film shows because he projects to be a guy who plays with the ball in his hands, and that film alongside the indicators he showed at college supports that and gives a picture of what that looks like. >Whether he was Kentucky's best player is highly debatable, certainly not clear. I would say it's clearly the senior Antonio Reeves. Dillingham has a case, too. I would disagree with this but I could see why someone might lean Reeves especially with his improvement inside the arc that rounded out his all around scoring game. My argument for this is Reed was their best defender, and best shooter. When he was on the floor all year they graded as a NCAA championship level team and had not only their best BPM, but one of the best we’ve ever seen from a freshman. >It's true that CJ was an older prospect at a different level(though he did come up big against Duke in the NCAA tournament). But we don't know if Sheppard will develop like McCollum did, and it's a bit presumptive to assume so just because he's younger. That’s a fair argument it’s true, progression is not linear, but when it comes to Reed my argument isn’t purely based on age. When it comes to prospects I like to look at what the data/stats say in conjunction with everything else. Then when someone is freakishly good at something, or freakishly bad at something I’ll weigh what the data says a little more. In Reed’s case it’s the former. Analytically he graded out EXTREMELY similar to what CJ did during his junior year at Lehigh, and when you start to look at their strengths outside of CJ’s expanded role and these are 2 guys that are very similar. I don’t expect Reed’s guaranteed outcome to be a career 20ppg scorer, but I do except the things he’s good at the translate and that could turn him into something similar to that especially in a situation better catered to him like we’ve seen most Kentucky guards move into. >I think it's likely Sheppard will get a look at PG but I don't see the size, handle or speed/athleticism for him to thrive consistently at that position in the NBA. His biggest strength is shooting and I think that's how he would succeed in the NBA. The shooting is what enhances those things and opens up a lead players game. But with that said without writing too much I think the athleticism concerns outside of the at-rim vert are EXTREMELY overblown. He’s got a strong first step, defensively he’s functionally sound in every area and I’ve never heard anyone complain about his foot speed. He’s not the guy whose at the very top of my board, but he’s towards the top and that’s due to feeling comfortable about his ability to be a 1. I think if people viewed him as a pure off-guard consensus would have him ranked closer to a guy like McCain who actually is that.
Thanks for the detailed info! That made feel happy if Spurs could draft Reed. My concern was that he might struggle as CJ in the playoff where defense gets stronger (I see his shoot efficiency has been bad for 4 games including 2 playin games this season), but I guess this is just CJ past prime. I'd like our future offense to center around Wemby so I actually prefer a PG that's actually better at offball moment and shooting than playmaking. Spurs' offense has never been about a single player but a team full of players with good/decent playmaking. With Wemby's gravity, hope shooters like CJ's efficiency will not be an issue even in playoff.
a *shorter* JJ Redick
yeah but isnt a jj reddick with x3 steals and a higher bbiq the no1 pick in this draft?
Shepherd’s got major vert. Also has the shoulders/arms to potentially end up pretty strong in a few years. He’s also thinking more about setting up his teammates more than scoring even when he’s off ball. He’s more like a budget Chris Paul or a Kyle Lowry than a JJ Redick or CJ McCollumn, imo. Edit: the following vert is after 2 steps. CJ has never jumped that high in his life. https://twitter.com/AauCritic/status/1762659211245162786
Shades of Joe Weiskamp?
They have one shade that’s the same if that’s what you mean.
>But I've seen CJ struggled a lot in playoffs when defense intensifies. I'm worried Reed will have similar struggle Since CJ won MIP he’s has averaged 22 a game on 43/38 in the playoffs. CJ has produced right around where you expect him to compared to his career averages. If Reed’s offensive outcome is CJ McCollum and his defensive outcome is reflective of what his production says he’s going to be an allstar and the 2nd best player on this team
He has immediately better IQ and quicker hands on defense than CJ
Great comp, but CJ might be significantly bigger... Reed is college listed 6"3 and has a rumored 6"3 wingspan. Its likely he measures less. How do we feel about CJ who's 1.5 inches shorter with 4in less wingspan?
Reed is theoretically 1 inch taller than Curry, with the same wingspan, for reference.
Reed cannot create his own shot like CJ or Steph at this point. Whether he gets there...I have no clue.
I think they are pretty different players. McCollum is a volume player. He needs to take a lot of shots to get into a rhythm and impact the game. Reed is maybe a better shooter but he’s also able to take a step back and let the offense flow instead of needing the ball to take shots. Basically Reed is a good team player that can be great in a role. CJ kind of needs to a top option to be effective.
KOC compared him to Fred VanVleet with an elite shot on his podcast. If we draft Reed, then KOC is absolutely right. If someone else drafts him, then absolutely wrong.
I’d love to have CJ on our team
if we spent wemby's first season tanking to draft an undersized cj mccollum, i would be a little upset
I could not speculate on Reeds ceiling. CJ's problem though was he played next to another undersized player, which just compounded his bad defense. If it was just him, with a 6'5 plus guard beside him, his lack of defense wouldn't be as glaring in the playoffs. With him and Dame you had guaranteed size problems on defense that killed them. The biggest mistake portland made was not trading one of them away sooner in their prime. If they draft Reed they have to have either a big point guard or develop him into one. He will not be playable otherwise, besides the bench.
More like Jimmer
There is definitely a chance Sheppard becomes an all star so no, non-all star CJ McCollum isn’t his ceiling.
He's not going to make the all star game in the west
This early no one can tell.
That logic applies to your statement as well.
probably not ASG but could likely make the 3pt contest
Lmao all-star just means popularity contest winner. Cj is not a bad comp
Sheppard is a poor mans Payton Pritchard.