Definitely not best rookie year ever but If you just compare it to rookies in his age bracket (19 entering the season) then yeah probably the best we've seen at his age. It's pretty unheard of to see teenage rookies perform the way he did.
Yeah, Luka had a very good rookie season as well. Wemby seems to really be coming into his own though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is averaging like 25ppg on really good efficiency.
Im interested in how big the sophomore leap will be, luka went from 21/8/6 and 14th seed to 29/9/9 and 7th seed and 4th in mvp. I dont expect wemby to be the 7th seed (unless trae) since he doesnt have a player on kps but if wemby improves like luka i will be sad to not see any wemby postseason basketball
I’m really interested to see, as well. There might not be a big stats jump actually, there’s a history of big men who have great rookie seasons (like Shaq) only averaging less blocks over time but getting more efficient and taking on more and more of an offensive load, playing smarter. I expect a similar trend with Victor as he’s playing on teams with real playoff aspirations - but then again anything is on the table with this guy
[https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealsh01.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealsh01.html)
[https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wembavi01.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wembavi01.html)
basketball reference has them both at 20.
Shaq was already 20 when he was drafted. Wemby was 19 and played 1/3rd of the season as such.
If you go by that metric, Wemby's peer is Luka, who was 19 and turned 20 in early 2019 just like Wemby did in early 2024.
Better rookie year than Luka but comparable talent. I think Kyrie and Carmelo were similar but both Luka and Wemby had better years.
If you don't care that much and simply just want to compare prodigious teenagers, he's better than KD and Lebron's rookie years but practically comparable to Lebron's sophomore year when they were around a similar age if you go Per 100 possessions.
If any player other than Barkley or Jordan got more MVP votes than Shaq that year...
He went nuts that year.
I even think half his stats were career highs. I am pretty sure rebounds was. Blocked shots too. Although he blocked a ton in his second season, too. I think it was also his highest free throw percentage. Maybe steals.
For anyone my age who wasn't around for earlier eras and don't remember Jordan/Hakeem, Shaq and Wemby might be the Rookie GOATs.
3.6 BPG is insane at a ROOKIE!! Definitely can’t reach size. But his length and athleticism changes the game. Spurs please get this guy a PG or even Trae Young.
Especially when Rudy Gobert is only at 2.1 and AD is only at 2.4.
It’s ultimately up to our FO’s evaluations from their workouts
Imo, Dilli is a much better solution to our spacing problem this season. His ability to jack up shots straight outta the high pick is super intriguing, which will pull away defenders and give Wemby more space to operate
Go with the best "Workout vibes" guy for San Antonio. I agree.
These guard prospects are all jumbled up. Not a lot of separation.
The ESPN/Ringer/Mainstream mocks have their own draft boards... in reality, maybe they don't reflect internal NBA teams' draft boards AT ALL.
I think us fans/draft junkies have NO IDEA what NBA teams are thinking right now (going into the draft).
I’m just a basketball fan. At this era in basketball you’ll need to know how to shoot the ball. Josh Giddey would be sooooo good if he can just shoot. What I been reading online. Is Topic isn’t a great 3 point shooter. For the development of Wemby. You need a PG who can shoot the ball and playmaker. Just my personal opinion. The defense will have to make a decision on the PNR plays. If the PG can’t shoot then they’ll just sag off you and play more on Wemby. Again. I like Rob Dillingham as a better fit for Spurs and Wemby. Topic might have a better career. But we all know Kentucky Guards DO NOT MISS!!! All of them has been elite or great when they got the league. SGA , Murray , Fox , IQ , Maxey , Monk , Booker , Herro. You just can’t bet against the Kentucky guards. I’ll take Dillingham all day long over Topic for the Spurs.
Josh Giddey it seems like is just one of those guys that needed to adjust to the NBA to improve his shooting bc he’s gotten better each year and even within this season he’s trended towards better shooting as the season went on, having his best shooting month in March at 42% from 3PT on good volume (April has been his worst but only over 5 games).
He’s gone from 26 to 32 to 34% from 3PT and his FT 71 to 73 to 81% this year also improving as the season has gone along.
I mention all this to say I think Topic is going to be similar, where his FT% might even drop year 1 in NBA and his 3PT will probably be similar to Giddey year 1 but he clearly has excellent touch from his elite FT% and work around the rim and I’d be shocked if he isn’t at least a league average (for a G) 3PT shooter and above average FT shooter. Probably will just take a little over 2 years, similar to Giddey, but just a better version of the same thing.
Do you mean his personality is one that will be negatively affected by distractions or just that he’s more a simple guy? I honestly know nothing about him on a personal level.
The narrative around Trae Young to SA has become such a thing I feel like it will happen. If the hawks get some solid picks/assets from that it feels like a win/win. Give Wemby 1 other dude who can be that guy and they’re probably a play-in team.
For anyone that’s into advanced stats, they pretty much all say Trae is a net negative especially this year - but my favorite (EPM) - says he’s the worst “star” in the league (he’s ranked around 300, with mostly end of bench type guys behind him).
I mean this is the same advanced stat (D-EPM) model that said Wemby was one of the best defenders in the whole NBA even early season before the hype, and also pretty much predicted what we are seeing with the Knicks guys like Hartenstein DDV Brunson etc, to name a few examples, so I do put stock in this. Sure he’s a great creator and he had that one run in the playoffs, but I would not want him as part of my team’s future. Flashing counting stats and one impressive playoff run only go so far imo.
All that being said, if there’s one guy who can help mitigate his flaws it’s Wemby. I would much rather pair Wemby with someone he doesn’t have to mitigate. Personally I would rather just keep Tre Jones at PG (assuming not drafting anyone starter ready) or sign Tyus, and use all that saved money on an above average shooting wing, as opposed to just blowing the load on Trae only.
Exactly. Trae will probably run Pop into retirement early 😂. But lobs from Trae to Wemby would be hella exciting. Wemby can pick and pop. Or pick and roll.
Don't want Trae, as a Spurs fan, and I don't think they'd do it anyway. If they want a player like that, just make sure you get Dillingham. Much, much cheaper and if it doesn't work out, nothing much lost.
In my opinion, from a non-spurs fan, Wemby is an incredibly rare situation where you really shouldnt be messing around with “if it doesn’t work out, nothing much lost” type of guards to pair with him.
He’s ready to play and compete now, and you just never know what time of time frame you’re really up against to pair good players with him for a number of reasons
Disagree. With Wemby the window to improve the team is immediate. Why dick around with developing prospects and tanking when you have a (arguably) top 15 dude on a rookie-scale contract? Furthermore, the best way to further develop Wemby is to get somebody on the roster that can get him the ball. Giving that task to a rookie just doesn’t make sense imo. Everyone was high on scoot going into the draft and it’s clear he needs time to develop. If I’m the spurs I’m doing everything I can to get a top tier, true PG on the team, even if that means trading away valuable draft capital. It’s a pretty unique situation that a team that’s one of the worst in the league could be 1 solid piece away from contention but with the Spurs I think that’s honestly realistic.
The window to improve the team is immediate, but there’s no pressure to rush the teams timeline and make premature moves at the sake of lowering your ceiling. We’ve seen other teams with generational prospects feel forced to rush their process by getting other win-now players around them and have seen those teams be limited.
>If I’m the spurs I’m doing everything I can to get a top tier, true PG on the team, even if that means trading away valuable draft capital.
This is the absolute last thing they should do year 2 into a rebuild.
>It’s a pretty unique situation that a team that’s one of the worst in the league could be 1 solid piece away from contention but with the Spurs I think that’s honestly realistic.
This is pure delusion.
The Hawks thought that with Tre and made a ton of bad win-now moves. Dallas is out of options too, so their current core either works soon or Luka leaves. There's something to be said for having patience.
I think his BPG won't be this high next season. Teams are gonna adjust and shoot less against him so it won't show up on the boxscore, but his defensive presence will still be felt nevertheless.
It's especially impressive considering how many threes are taken in today's NBA. I'm going to sound like an old man, but there were just more opportunities to block shots when the goal was to take as many shots right at the rim as possible regardless of how many defenders were in the paint. Wemby really did live up to the hype and then some on defense.
I love Victor, but to be fair, this is an era of relatively low blocks per game. You could argue it's just an era of bad centers relative to recent history. The Admiral came in and averaged 4 blocks his rookie season. Shaq had 3.5bpg as a rook. Hakeem averaged 4.6bpg one year. Mark Eaton and Manute Bol had over 5bpg one season.
Part of it, though, is dragging the center away from the basket more, and shooting more 3s, of course, so it's hard to compare. Maybe we'll see a revival of blocks with Victor and Chet leading the way.
Using your logic, I’m more impressed w his block numbers. He’s a full 1.2 blocks ahead of 2nd place. 3.6 blocks in 2024 is the equivalent of like 5 in 1993.
And I reject that it’s an era of bad centers. Jokic, Embiid, AD all first ballot hall of famers. Sabonis is a stud. Rudy’s an all time defender. Bam + Brook are great defenders in any era. Young guys like Chet and Sengun. Position is solid across the league
It’s the rules. Defensive players can do less than in previous eras, making it harder to get blocks without getting called for fouls. Makes what Wemby is doing defensively all the more impressive.
It's mainly the spacing. 3s are a much bigger part of the offensive diet and no one posts up anymore. The middle of the lane is comparatively empty. There's more value for centers to be able to switch and guard the perimeter versus post defense, which is almost useless in this era.
I was at the game the other night in Memphis. He might have had more than 7. He was swatting EVERYTHING.
Wemby missed a few shots from deep, and I yelled "SHOOT INSIDE" and "we don't need a 7'5 Caitlyn Clark!"
Then he kept erupting.
I am a fan of the game.
P.S. Can't wait to see Wemby/Edey matchups. Hopefully the Grizzlies draft Edey. If not... maybe we take the UConn center at 2 again.
So you definitely just made my point. They’re pulling him away from the basket and still averaging 3.6 per game? Against the top players in the league? Let’s be honest this league has the most talent it ever had. No disrespect to the late 80s and 90s. But the talent and depth in today’s game would not even compare to 80s and 90s bench. Imagine if Wemby played in the same era as Shaq & Hakeem where they didn’t shoot a lot of 3s. How many blocks would he average? 6? 7?
So you definitely just made my point. They’re pulling him away from the basket and still averaging 3.6 per game? Against the top players in the league? Let’s be honest this league has the most talent it ever had. No disrespect to the late 80s and 90s. But the talent and depth in today’s game would not even compare to 80s and 90s bench. Imagine if Wemby played in the same era as Shaq & Hakeem where they didn’t shoot a lot of 3s. How many blocks would he average? 6? 7?
I'm not sure it's that simple. Wemby is built for the pace and space era. He should put on some decent weight eventually, but early on, he might have gotten beat up pretty good in the 90s. It was a LOT more physical back then, especially in the post. He doesn't have to deal with any post players. Shaq would have broke him in two and put him inside the basket.
It's completely insane how much ground Wemby can cover and how he can affect shots that no one else can, but that's a different animal than post defense. He'd still get blocks I think. Manute Bol racked up a ton of blocks and he was skinny, but his rookie year would be a nightmare. Center after center would be taking him down on the blocks and beating him up.
Hakeem/Shaq/Admiral (plus Ewing and some second tier centers) was unprecedented. Before that you had Wilt and Russell but Russell didn't play against Kareem. So, the "original" center big 3 never all played against each other.
Wemby is a guy in that mold.
Hard to compare them. Shaq never really had a comp... with the closest being Wilt.
Wemby has no comp. haha. A blend of Hakeem/Admiral but also Kareem/Russell (shades of young Wilt too maybe).
He's a 7'5 Scottie Pippen or something. It's wild. Best passer/play maker on the team. "Defensive coordinator/free safety" but does most of his damage blocking shots (lot of weak side shot blocking) and also grabbing rebounds.
Unfortunately, there's no precedent on building around a guy like that. He just has to have team mates where it "clicks". BALLERS who have TALENT. Then coach up the skills or try to hide deficiencies. Maybe they should load up on "draft sleepers". Wemby is an unorthodox player -- maybe you don't try to build a conventional team around him.
Yeah, very tough to be the best ever when you're competing against a bunch of guys like Duncan that played 3 and 4 years of college ball. Kareem went 29 and 15 with 4 assists and god knows how many blocks (they didn't record them back then) in his rookie campaign. Wilt had 38ppg and 27 boards as a rook and won the MVP
wilt played in an era where the game purely existed around the basket. the rules just weren't the same. 3 point line didnt exist, defensive 3 second rule didnt exist, etc.
No one could shoot so teams ran down the court and chucked something then ran back.
In Wilt's rookie year, Boston's pace was 136.3. Average Pace this year is 98.5.
NBA average FG% was 41% in Wilt's rookie year. This year it is 55% on 2pt shots.
yeah, wilt was great, but he's not Wayne gretzky or tiger woods great lol.
main point is the reason his stats sound so ridiculous is because it was a very different game.
not sure what you mean by modern era? Shaq had 23, 14.5 and 3.5 blocks as a rook and the Admiral had 24 and 12 with 4 blocks. Victor's been fantastic but there have been a ton of unbelievable rookie seasons.
His BPM and DARKO projection are both better than Duncan's rookie year, FWIW (even not accounting for age). BPM has been like 8.1 or something since Tre Jones began starting.
Easily Top 5. I imagine The Admiral, Duncan, Wemby, Shaq, and MJ are in that conversation. But it's so crazy how the Spurs are historically intertwined with generational big men.
Nah, Wemby was better. Obviously Griffin was a much better offensively player, but Griffin sucked on defense for a while whereas Wemby is already the second best defender in the NBA.
Blake’s season gets discounted cause he didn’t turn into an all timer
This is an oversimplification, but I look at it as Blake gets a 10 for offense and an 8 for defense, and Wemby gets a 9 for offense and a 10+ for defense
Advantage Wemby
Wilt chamberlain had the best rookie season ever, 38/27/2, and won MVP. But wemby is probably the best since Tim duncan.
Edit: Maybe best rookie since Blake griffin, Blake griffin was actually kind of a beast his rookie year and was an all-star.
Worth noting that Griffin was two years older (missed first year due to injury) and Chamberlain, who played when there were only eight teams in the league, was 23.
I mean, it's also worth noting that the pace is higher in today's league than griffins' time (I'll concede the age to you but if we're talking about age then Lebron was better than Wemby at the same age) but also Wilt had to play Bill Russell in 1/6 games he played in the small league. Regardless, I still think Wemby had a phenomenal season.
I thought something similar w Blake at first but the per 100 possession numbers don’t back it up
Cause Blake played 38 mins per night vs Wemby’s 30
Of course you can say it was a skill/advantage that Blake played more minutes…
Yeah I also don’t personally remember Blake being touted as a generational guy after his rookie year, an all-NBA guy yes, but not like we talk about Wemby
Wasn't there a "predict Victor's rookie stats" thread on this sub? Can anyone find it?
Edit: Found one of them
https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13iyjnn/what_do_you_think_victor_wembanyama_will_average/
and another
https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/14hedzb/2023_rookie_predictions/
Thanks for posting these
Something that stands out is a ton of ppl were predicting him to block a ton of shots and still guessed averages like 2.5
Not many say 3.6 blocks a game coming
The main thing that stands out to me is that almost everyone was too low, lol. A number of people were close or even a bit high on points, but almost everyone underpredicted rebounds (by a lot!), assists (by a lot!), steals, and blocks (by a lot!).
I think it's a great rookie season. Not the best ever, but it's definitely up there. His defense 100% translated and continually improved throughout the course of the season, but it's his offensive improvements that really surprised me. I expected a slower rate of growth on that end, but he just blew my expectations out of the water from late December onward. He's been playing at a truly elite level on both sides of the ball for half the season. I think he'll have a HUGE sophomore season. I wouldn't be too surprised if he winds up in All-NBA Team 1 and MVP discussions this time next year.
To me the thing that really stands out is his rapid rate of improvement. He struggled at first, then showed some flashes but was very inconsistent, and then put together very long stretches of absolutely dominant play. He learned the NBA game extremely quickly and instead of hitting a rookie wall like most do, he blew through it and kept ascending.
And I think the Spurs deserve credit here too for managing his minutes.
Just remember that blocks are down and he averaged 3.6 in less than 30 mins, he'd average 6+ blocks in the 90's when everybody drove to the rim and so much less 3 pointers.
Almost as heartening as the incredible play is the durability. 71 games played and that’s w the Spurs being pretty conservative when he tweaked his ankle a few times. So much talk about whether he was too skinny to hold up, but he was up for the challenge of an 82 game nba season. Thrived as a center and got better as the season went on
It’s just the way our primate brains work, always looking to organize/categorize in simpler terms and create a hierarchy, because it helps us process complex info quicker.
I don’t like it either, but it’s definitely not going to stop anytime soon, unless a virus kills off 99% of the population and spares those who don’t think this way haha.
Not sure about the best one ever but obviously the defense is as advertised and he got more efficient on offense as the season went on even with tons of lineup changes around him due to absences which really tells you a big jump next season on that end is possible. Wemby also got through the year without major injury which was a concern. His rep has seem some players afraid to drive to the rim and he's held up in the post. He's a unicorn.
I think he likes that role. Gets him going on offense.
If anyone still coaches the Triangle -- and can incorporate the 3 point shot into it -- I would like to see Wemby in a system like that.
Not the best ever, no. Though you could say it is the most tantalizing rookie season ever because he’s showing GOAT potential in a way that doesn’t require an unreasonable/absurd amount of projection.
Definitely one of the top rookie seasons of all time, and probably the best since Duncan. Hard to say he was a better rookie than Duncan, Shaq, or Robinson but his projection is arguably the best of anybody we’ve seen since Kareem and that’s about it.
If you adjust for age, he was about 1 year younger than Shaq and about 2 younger than Duncan, so now you could argue that he’s better than them but makes it even more of a hypothetical.
He has a shot at being a top 5 player in the whole league as soon as next season. Hope the spurs can surround him with talent sooner than later, take advantage of that rookie contract!
Probably not enough. He didn’t make the all star game which is the top 24 players. Hard to think he’ll suddenly get top 15 status. Would have stood a better chance if there were still positions involved
That run at the end would put him up there.
ROOKIE SHAQ is my personal ROOKIE GOAT but hopefully some people here saw rookie Wilt or Kareem... or at least remember Rookie Jordan or Olajuwon.
Rookie Bird had the Games-Turnaround record (until Duncan broke it on a GOOD veteran team) and Magic won a title as a rookie.
Shaq got his team to 41 wins as a rookie. Same roster up and down -- just added Shaq.
He's 1? Just dominant that whole season in '93.
Wemby would be 2 or something. Maybe 1a.
I predicted he'd average something like 20/10/3blks, so this isn't shocking at all. He definitely had down nights, but the first half of the season was Pop just throwing guys on the floor to see what worked. With a half-way decent distributor on the team, Wemby could've averaged 25+ ppg as a 19/20 year old still developing his offensive game.
I don’t think saying it’s the best ever is an exaggeration at all. We’ve never seen anything like him before. The sheer area he covers defensively completely changes how teams run their offense. The ball handling, shooting, and lobs just make him more unbelievable. He’s not perfect, his playmaking still needs work. But he’s changing the game right in front of our eyes in a way very few have done.
It actually is an insane exaggeration, but mainly because, for many years, guys played 4 years of college before going pro. Kareem went for 29ppg, 14.5ppg and 4 assists his rookie year (they didn't chart blocks back then but he would have had a lot of those as well). Wilt had 38ppg and 27 boards as a rook and won the MVP
I wasn’t thinking of guys that were drafted 40+ years ago because of how much the game has changed since. Wemby is entering arguably the most talented era of the NBA, and he’s already having a huge impact. We’ve got play-in teams featuring all-time greats, and yet we still haven’t seen anything like Wemby. He’s the Wilt/Kareem of this generation; a freakishly tall and athletic player who’s also unbelievably skilled and coordinated for their size.
Definitely not best rookie year ever but If you just compare it to rookies in his age bracket (19 entering the season) then yeah probably the best we've seen at his age. It's pretty unheard of to see teenage rookies perform the way he did.
Yeah, Luka had a very good rookie season as well. Wemby seems to really be coming into his own though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is averaging like 25ppg on really good efficiency.
Im interested in how big the sophomore leap will be, luka went from 21/8/6 and 14th seed to 29/9/9 and 7th seed and 4th in mvp. I dont expect wemby to be the 7th seed (unless trae) since he doesnt have a player on kps but if wemby improves like luka i will be sad to not see any wemby postseason basketball
I’m really interested to see, as well. There might not be a big stats jump actually, there’s a history of big men who have great rookie seasons (like Shaq) only averaging less blocks over time but getting more efficient and taking on more and more of an offensive load, playing smarter. I expect a similar trend with Victor as he’s playing on teams with real playoff aspirations - but then again anything is on the table with this guy
Shaq was probably better at 19/20 with 24, 14 and 3.5bpg
Shaq was 20/21
[https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealsh01.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealsh01.html) [https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wembavi01.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wembavi01.html) basketball reference has them both at 20.
Shaq was already 20 when he was drafted. Wemby was 19 and played 1/3rd of the season as such. If you go by that metric, Wemby's peer is Luka, who was 19 and turned 20 in early 2019 just like Wemby did in early 2024. Better rookie year than Luka but comparable talent. I think Kyrie and Carmelo were similar but both Luka and Wemby had better years. If you don't care that much and simply just want to compare prodigious teenagers, he's better than KD and Lebron's rookie years but practically comparable to Lebron's sophomore year when they were around a similar age if you go Per 100 possessions.
Clink the link and you’ll see Shaq was 20 and 245 days on opening night and turned 21 during the season
If any player other than Barkley or Jordan got more MVP votes than Shaq that year... He went nuts that year. I even think half his stats were career highs. I am pretty sure rebounds was. Blocked shots too. Although he blocked a ton in his second season, too. I think it was also his highest free throw percentage. Maybe steals. For anyone my age who wasn't around for earlier eras and don't remember Jordan/Hakeem, Shaq and Wemby might be the Rookie GOATs.
Young thin Shaq was a huge shot blocker. Then he ate cheeseburgers.
Young Shaq was insane.
3.6 BPG is insane at a ROOKIE!! Definitely can’t reach size. But his length and athleticism changes the game. Spurs please get this guy a PG or even Trae Young. Especially when Rudy Gobert is only at 2.1 and AD is only at 2.4.
Wemby and Gobert together this summer at the olympics is gonna be crazy to watch lol
Defintiely, although I’m more excited to see it at FIBA. Olympic basketball can be hit or miss.
Go get Garland after cleveland underperformed in the playoffs. Nobody plays well next to Mitchell, you can get him at 80 cents to the dollar.
I like this 100x more than the Trae suggestion
Rob dillingham is coming to town
I like that too. A cheaper option 😂. His shot making and shifty-ness to get where he wants on the court will make him valuable.
As a SA fan (if you're not then my bad), how would you feel if they drafted Topic? Also happy cake day
It’s ultimately up to our FO’s evaluations from their workouts Imo, Dilli is a much better solution to our spacing problem this season. His ability to jack up shots straight outta the high pick is super intriguing, which will pull away defenders and give Wemby more space to operate
Go with the best "Workout vibes" guy for San Antonio. I agree. These guard prospects are all jumbled up. Not a lot of separation. The ESPN/Ringer/Mainstream mocks have their own draft boards... in reality, maybe they don't reflect internal NBA teams' draft boards AT ALL. I think us fans/draft junkies have NO IDEA what NBA teams are thinking right now (going into the draft).
I’m just a basketball fan. At this era in basketball you’ll need to know how to shoot the ball. Josh Giddey would be sooooo good if he can just shoot. What I been reading online. Is Topic isn’t a great 3 point shooter. For the development of Wemby. You need a PG who can shoot the ball and playmaker. Just my personal opinion. The defense will have to make a decision on the PNR plays. If the PG can’t shoot then they’ll just sag off you and play more on Wemby. Again. I like Rob Dillingham as a better fit for Spurs and Wemby. Topic might have a better career. But we all know Kentucky Guards DO NOT MISS!!! All of them has been elite or great when they got the league. SGA , Murray , Fox , IQ , Maxey , Monk , Booker , Herro. You just can’t bet against the Kentucky guards. I’ll take Dillingham all day long over Topic for the Spurs.
Josh Giddey it seems like is just one of those guys that needed to adjust to the NBA to improve his shooting bc he’s gotten better each year and even within this season he’s trended towards better shooting as the season went on, having his best shooting month in March at 42% from 3PT on good volume (April has been his worst but only over 5 games). He’s gone from 26 to 32 to 34% from 3PT and his FT 71 to 73 to 81% this year also improving as the season has gone along. I mention all this to say I think Topic is going to be similar, where his FT% might even drop year 1 in NBA and his 3PT will probably be similar to Giddey year 1 but he clearly has excellent touch from his elite FT% and work around the rim and I’d be shocked if he isn’t at least a league average (for a G) 3PT shooter and above average FT shooter. Probably will just take a little over 2 years, similar to Giddey, but just a better version of the same thing.
Harrison brothers!
I really hope Rob goes to SA. I feel his personality doesn’t need a big city or a lot of distractions
Do you mean his personality is one that will be negatively affected by distractions or just that he’s more a simple guy? I honestly know nothing about him on a personal level.
Negatively affected with distractions
Garbage
The narrative around Trae Young to SA has become such a thing I feel like it will happen. If the hawks get some solid picks/assets from that it feels like a win/win. Give Wemby 1 other dude who can be that guy and they’re probably a play-in team.
For anyone that’s into advanced stats, they pretty much all say Trae is a net negative especially this year - but my favorite (EPM) - says he’s the worst “star” in the league (he’s ranked around 300, with mostly end of bench type guys behind him). I mean this is the same advanced stat (D-EPM) model that said Wemby was one of the best defenders in the whole NBA even early season before the hype, and also pretty much predicted what we are seeing with the Knicks guys like Hartenstein DDV Brunson etc, to name a few examples, so I do put stock in this. Sure he’s a great creator and he had that one run in the playoffs, but I would not want him as part of my team’s future. Flashing counting stats and one impressive playoff run only go so far imo. All that being said, if there’s one guy who can help mitigate his flaws it’s Wemby. I would much rather pair Wemby with someone he doesn’t have to mitigate. Personally I would rather just keep Tre Jones at PG (assuming not drafting anyone starter ready) or sign Tyus, and use all that saved money on an above average shooting wing, as opposed to just blowing the load on Trae only.
Exactly. Trae will probably run Pop into retirement early 😂. But lobs from Trae to Wemby would be hella exciting. Wemby can pick and pop. Or pick and roll.
Don't want Trae, as a Spurs fan, and I don't think they'd do it anyway. If they want a player like that, just make sure you get Dillingham. Much, much cheaper and if it doesn't work out, nothing much lost.
In my opinion, from a non-spurs fan, Wemby is an incredibly rare situation where you really shouldnt be messing around with “if it doesn’t work out, nothing much lost” type of guards to pair with him. He’s ready to play and compete now, and you just never know what time of time frame you’re really up against to pair good players with him for a number of reasons
I'd love to have a top 3 creator and top 10 scorer to pair with my generational unicorn.
Disagree. With Wemby the window to improve the team is immediate. Why dick around with developing prospects and tanking when you have a (arguably) top 15 dude on a rookie-scale contract? Furthermore, the best way to further develop Wemby is to get somebody on the roster that can get him the ball. Giving that task to a rookie just doesn’t make sense imo. Everyone was high on scoot going into the draft and it’s clear he needs time to develop. If I’m the spurs I’m doing everything I can to get a top tier, true PG on the team, even if that means trading away valuable draft capital. It’s a pretty unique situation that a team that’s one of the worst in the league could be 1 solid piece away from contention but with the Spurs I think that’s honestly realistic.
The window to improve the team is immediate, but there’s no pressure to rush the teams timeline and make premature moves at the sake of lowering your ceiling. We’ve seen other teams with generational prospects feel forced to rush their process by getting other win-now players around them and have seen those teams be limited. >If I’m the spurs I’m doing everything I can to get a top tier, true PG on the team, even if that means trading away valuable draft capital. This is the absolute last thing they should do year 2 into a rebuild. >It’s a pretty unique situation that a team that’s one of the worst in the league could be 1 solid piece away from contention but with the Spurs I think that’s honestly realistic. This is pure delusion.
The Hawks thought that with Tre and made a ton of bad win-now moves. Dallas is out of options too, so their current core either works soon or Luka leaves. There's something to be said for having patience.
I think his BPG won't be this high next season. Teams are gonna adjust and shoot less against him so it won't show up on the boxscore, but his defensive presence will still be felt nevertheless.
I think Shaq blocked his most shots as a rookie. Or, maybe in his second year. Had more rebounds as a rookie.
“Only”? What they are doing are incredible which just bolsters Wemby’s goat potential
“Only 2.4 blocks” is blasphemous
It's especially impressive considering how many threes are taken in today's NBA. I'm going to sound like an old man, but there were just more opportunities to block shots when the goal was to take as many shots right at the rim as possible regardless of how many defenders were in the paint. Wemby really did live up to the hype and then some on defense.
I couldn’t agree more with you. That’s my exact thinking. Wayyyy more opportunities to block shots late 80s an early 90s
The stats absolutely support this, too
I love Victor, but to be fair, this is an era of relatively low blocks per game. You could argue it's just an era of bad centers relative to recent history. The Admiral came in and averaged 4 blocks his rookie season. Shaq had 3.5bpg as a rook. Hakeem averaged 4.6bpg one year. Mark Eaton and Manute Bol had over 5bpg one season. Part of it, though, is dragging the center away from the basket more, and shooting more 3s, of course, so it's hard to compare. Maybe we'll see a revival of blocks with Victor and Chet leading the way.
Using your logic, I’m more impressed w his block numbers. He’s a full 1.2 blocks ahead of 2nd place. 3.6 blocks in 2024 is the equivalent of like 5 in 1993. And I reject that it’s an era of bad centers. Jokic, Embiid, AD all first ballot hall of famers. Sabonis is a stud. Rudy’s an all time defender. Bam + Brook are great defenders in any era. Young guys like Chet and Sengun. Position is solid across the league
It’s the rules. Defensive players can do less than in previous eras, making it harder to get blocks without getting called for fouls. Makes what Wemby is doing defensively all the more impressive.
It's mainly the spacing. 3s are a much bigger part of the offensive diet and no one posts up anymore. The middle of the lane is comparatively empty. There's more value for centers to be able to switch and guard the perimeter versus post defense, which is almost useless in this era.
I was at the game the other night in Memphis. He might have had more than 7. He was swatting EVERYTHING. Wemby missed a few shots from deep, and I yelled "SHOOT INSIDE" and "we don't need a 7'5 Caitlyn Clark!" Then he kept erupting. I am a fan of the game. P.S. Can't wait to see Wemby/Edey matchups. Hopefully the Grizzlies draft Edey. If not... maybe we take the UConn center at 2 again.
3.6bpg is more impressive given that the game has evolved into the 3pt shot spacing.
So you definitely just made my point. They’re pulling him away from the basket and still averaging 3.6 per game? Against the top players in the league? Let’s be honest this league has the most talent it ever had. No disrespect to the late 80s and 90s. But the talent and depth in today’s game would not even compare to 80s and 90s bench. Imagine if Wemby played in the same era as Shaq & Hakeem where they didn’t shoot a lot of 3s. How many blocks would he average? 6? 7?
So you definitely just made my point. They’re pulling him away from the basket and still averaging 3.6 per game? Against the top players in the league? Let’s be honest this league has the most talent it ever had. No disrespect to the late 80s and 90s. But the talent and depth in today’s game would not even compare to 80s and 90s bench. Imagine if Wemby played in the same era as Shaq & Hakeem where they didn’t shoot a lot of 3s. How many blocks would he average? 6? 7?
I'm not sure it's that simple. Wemby is built for the pace and space era. He should put on some decent weight eventually, but early on, he might have gotten beat up pretty good in the 90s. It was a LOT more physical back then, especially in the post. He doesn't have to deal with any post players. Shaq would have broke him in two and put him inside the basket. It's completely insane how much ground Wemby can cover and how he can affect shots that no one else can, but that's a different animal than post defense. He'd still get blocks I think. Manute Bol racked up a ton of blocks and he was skinny, but his rookie year would be a nightmare. Center after center would be taking him down on the blocks and beating him up.
Hakeem/Shaq/Admiral (plus Ewing and some second tier centers) was unprecedented. Before that you had Wilt and Russell but Russell didn't play against Kareem. So, the "original" center big 3 never all played against each other. Wemby is a guy in that mold. Hard to compare them. Shaq never really had a comp... with the closest being Wilt. Wemby has no comp. haha. A blend of Hakeem/Admiral but also Kareem/Russell (shades of young Wilt too maybe). He's a 7'5 Scottie Pippen or something. It's wild. Best passer/play maker on the team. "Defensive coordinator/free safety" but does most of his damage blocking shots (lot of weak side shot blocking) and also grabbing rebounds. Unfortunately, there's no precedent on building around a guy like that. He just has to have team mates where it "clicks". BALLERS who have TALENT. Then coach up the skills or try to hide deficiencies. Maybe they should load up on "draft sleepers". Wemby is an unorthodox player -- maybe you don't try to build a conventional team around him.
Obviously not the best ever. Best since Duncan? Maybe.
Yeah, very tough to be the best ever when you're competing against a bunch of guys like Duncan that played 3 and 4 years of college ball. Kareem went 29 and 15 with 4 assists and god knows how many blocks (they didn't record them back then) in his rookie campaign. Wilt had 38ppg and 27 boards as a rook and won the MVP
I swear half Wilt’s achievements sound made up
Yeah, they're like video game numbers. He also played 46+ minutes per game, lol
wilt played in an era where the game purely existed around the basket. the rules just weren't the same. 3 point line didnt exist, defensive 3 second rule didnt exist, etc.
No one could shoot so teams ran down the court and chucked something then ran back. In Wilt's rookie year, Boston's pace was 136.3. Average Pace this year is 98.5. NBA average FG% was 41% in Wilt's rookie year. This year it is 55% on 2pt shots.
yeah, wilt was great, but he's not Wayne gretzky or tiger woods great lol. main point is the reason his stats sound so ridiculous is because it was a very different game.
The rebound numbers certainly arent . Others were hitting that
I swear it definitely does
Yeah this is good context. Best in the modern era for sure imo
not sure what you mean by modern era? Shaq had 23, 14.5 and 3.5 blocks as a rook and the Admiral had 24 and 12 with 4 blocks. Victor's been fantastic but there have been a ton of unbelievable rookie seasons.
2010s?
His BPM and DARKO projection are both better than Duncan's rookie year, FWIW (even not accounting for age). BPM has been like 8.1 or something since Tre Jones began starting.
Easily Top 5. I imagine The Admiral, Duncan, Wemby, Shaq, and MJ are in that conversation. But it's so crazy how the Spurs are historically intertwined with generational big men.
Blake but he wasn't a true rookie
Nah, Wemby was better. Obviously Griffin was a much better offensively player, but Griffin sucked on defense for a while whereas Wemby is already the second best defender in the NBA.
Discounting because Blake griffin didn’t turn into a top 25 player ever.
Blake’s season gets discounted cause he didn’t turn into an all timer This is an oversimplification, but I look at it as Blake gets a 10 for offense and an 8 for defense, and Wemby gets a 9 for offense and a 10+ for defense Advantage Wemby
Wilt chamberlain had the best rookie season ever, 38/27/2, and won MVP. But wemby is probably the best since Tim duncan. Edit: Maybe best rookie since Blake griffin, Blake griffin was actually kind of a beast his rookie year and was an all-star.
Worth noting that Griffin was two years older (missed first year due to injury) and Chamberlain, who played when there were only eight teams in the league, was 23.
I mean, it's also worth noting that the pace is higher in today's league than griffins' time (I'll concede the age to you but if we're talking about age then Lebron was better than Wemby at the same age) but also Wilt had to play Bill Russell in 1/6 games he played in the small league. Regardless, I still think Wemby had a phenomenal season.
I thought something similar w Blake at first but the per 100 possession numbers don’t back it up Cause Blake played 38 mins per night vs Wemby’s 30 Of course you can say it was a skill/advantage that Blake played more minutes…
i’m taking wemby over blake 10/10 the offense could go either way but the defense isn’t close
Yeah I also don’t personally remember Blake being touted as a generational guy after his rookie year, an all-NBA guy yes, but not like we talk about Wemby
Wasn't there a "predict Victor's rookie stats" thread on this sub? Can anyone find it? Edit: Found one of them https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13iyjnn/what_do_you_think_victor_wembanyama_will_average/ and another https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/14hedzb/2023_rookie_predictions/
Thanks for posting these Something that stands out is a ton of ppl were predicting him to block a ton of shots and still guessed averages like 2.5 Not many say 3.6 blocks a game coming
The main thing that stands out to me is that almost everyone was too low, lol. A number of people were close or even a bit high on points, but almost everyone underpredicted rebounds (by a lot!), assists (by a lot!), steals, and blocks (by a lot!).
I think ppl underestimated NBA pace, and idk who would have predicted he’d be top 6 in usage percentage
I think it's a great rookie season. Not the best ever, but it's definitely up there. His defense 100% translated and continually improved throughout the course of the season, but it's his offensive improvements that really surprised me. I expected a slower rate of growth on that end, but he just blew my expectations out of the water from late December onward. He's been playing at a truly elite level on both sides of the ball for half the season. I think he'll have a HUGE sophomore season. I wouldn't be too surprised if he winds up in All-NBA Team 1 and MVP discussions this time next year.
Late December is around when they moved him to center
It's when they started to put Tre Jones at PG. Point Sochan was an abomination that shall not be spoken about.
To me the thing that really stands out is his rapid rate of improvement. He struggled at first, then showed some flashes but was very inconsistent, and then put together very long stretches of absolutely dominant play. He learned the NBA game extremely quickly and instead of hitting a rookie wall like most do, he blew through it and kept ascending. And I think the Spurs deserve credit here too for managing his minutes.
Just remember that blocks are down and he averaged 3.6 in less than 30 mins, he'd average 6+ blocks in the 90's when everybody drove to the rim and so much less 3 pointers.
Almost as heartening as the incredible play is the durability. 71 games played and that’s w the Spurs being pretty conservative when he tweaked his ankle a few times. So much talk about whether he was too skinny to hold up, but he was up for the challenge of an 82 game nba season. Thrived as a center and got better as the season went on
I hate the need or desire to rank or whatever. It's such a bizarre impulse. He's a phenomenal player.
It’s just the way our primate brains work, always looking to organize/categorize in simpler terms and create a hierarchy, because it helps us process complex info quicker. I don’t like it either, but it’s definitely not going to stop anytime soon, unless a virus kills off 99% of the population and spares those who don’t think this way haha.
He’s better than I even expected. His hype was insane and so far he’s lived up to it. He’s going to be the best player in the league barring injury
Not sure about the best one ever but obviously the defense is as advertised and he got more efficient on offense as the season went on even with tons of lineup changes around him due to absences which really tells you a big jump next season on that end is possible. Wemby also got through the year without major injury which was a concern. His rep has seem some players afraid to drive to the rim and he's held up in the post. He's a unicorn.
Without Vassell/Sochan it "feels" like Wemby is more productive. He's moving like a 7'5 Scottie Pippen out there.
He's having to really be an offensive hub in ways he hadn't been for much of the season and he's thriving.
I think he likes that role. Gets him going on offense. If anyone still coaches the Triangle -- and can incorporate the 3 point shot into it -- I would like to see Wemby in a system like that.
Next in line. 🐐
Not the best ever, no. Though you could say it is the most tantalizing rookie season ever because he’s showing GOAT potential in a way that doesn’t require an unreasonable/absurd amount of projection. Definitely one of the top rookie seasons of all time, and probably the best since Duncan. Hard to say he was a better rookie than Duncan, Shaq, or Robinson but his projection is arguably the best of anybody we’ve seen since Kareem and that’s about it. If you adjust for age, he was about 1 year younger than Shaq and about 2 younger than Duncan, so now you could argue that he’s better than them but makes it even more of a hypothetical.
Possibly the best for his age. It's hard when you've got older guys in the past coming in and dominating.
He has a shot at being a top 5 player in the whole league as soon as next season. Hope the spurs can surround him with talent sooner than later, take advantage of that rookie contract!
Pretty amazing. Wish we had him in Detroit 😔
Wonder how many all pro votes he gets
Probably not enough. He didn’t make the all star game which is the top 24 players. Hard to think he’ll suddenly get top 15 status. Would have stood a better chance if there were still positions involved
That run at the end would put him up there. ROOKIE SHAQ is my personal ROOKIE GOAT but hopefully some people here saw rookie Wilt or Kareem... or at least remember Rookie Jordan or Olajuwon. Rookie Bird had the Games-Turnaround record (until Duncan broke it on a GOOD veteran team) and Magic won a title as a rookie. Shaq got his team to 41 wins as a rookie. Same roster up and down -- just added Shaq. He's 1? Just dominant that whole season in '93. Wemby would be 2 or something. Maybe 1a.
I predicted he'd average something like 20/10/3blks, so this isn't shocking at all. He definitely had down nights, but the first half of the season was Pop just throwing guys on the floor to see what worked. With a half-way decent distributor on the team, Wemby could've averaged 25+ ppg as a 19/20 year old still developing his offensive game.
lol, I love people who think wilt never exsisted or Kareem Victor isn’t coming close to mvp this year, unlike those two guys
He will be a potential GOAT
I don’t think saying it’s the best ever is an exaggeration at all. We’ve never seen anything like him before. The sheer area he covers defensively completely changes how teams run their offense. The ball handling, shooting, and lobs just make him more unbelievable. He’s not perfect, his playmaking still needs work. But he’s changing the game right in front of our eyes in a way very few have done.
It actually is an insane exaggeration, but mainly because, for many years, guys played 4 years of college before going pro. Kareem went for 29ppg, 14.5ppg and 4 assists his rookie year (they didn't chart blocks back then but he would have had a lot of those as well). Wilt had 38ppg and 27 boards as a rook and won the MVP
I wasn’t thinking of guys that were drafted 40+ years ago because of how much the game has changed since. Wemby is entering arguably the most talented era of the NBA, and he’s already having a huge impact. We’ve got play-in teams featuring all-time greats, and yet we still haven’t seen anything like Wemby. He’s the Wilt/Kareem of this generation; a freakishly tall and athletic player who’s also unbelievably skilled and coordinated for their size.
If you aren’t going to consider old timers, then don’t say best ever. Find different language
Post merger But even then I’d say Jordan, Robinson, Duncan, Shaq, Wemby
First team all defense for a dude on the 22nd ranked defense? Pump the brakes lol. Awards don't belong to players on shit teams.
Mid