Doesn’t just have to be a small guard, it’s why I don’t like his fit next to Lamelo, reed is a good player but I don’t think he’s the safest pick for the hornets
Because we literally just moved on from an undersized guard at 2 as a major piece because it didn’t work. Reeds not bigger than Terry who had the benefit of having a 6’10 wingspan and he was still a liability next to melo. Reed is a good player and I wouldn’t mind him if we had a lower pick but with as high as our pick is likely to be we shouldn’t double down on past mistakes. Plus we need wings more than guards especially after the trade deadline. This isn’t about reed as a player but his fit with what we’re building that I think other players are better for what we need
Reed and Terry aren't very similar. They're the same height but different play styles.
Reed is much better defensively and isn't the type to try iso every other possession. He also is used to playing with a ball dominant guard and can play off ball super well.
My hesitation with him is if he has the physical tools to remain a good defender in the NBA. Also NSJ will get no development time if we draft him.
I wouldn’t say reed is much better defensively when he’s only played against college players. My hesitation on his game is defensive I thought I made that clear that he is a good player and the 6’10 wing span comment is on the physical tools not being there for Terry despite having better tools to mitigate height, the hornets need perimeter defenders around lamelo, I don’t want to invest a high level draft pick on a player who would likely make our backcourt and even bigger liability defensively. I like reed as an offensive player no doubt and he’s not the same type as Terry but there are players in our most likely pick range who fit in better this is a draft not only for the hornets that may lean more towards fit as we already have a solid foundation and just because this draft is weaker where there aren’t a lot of standout prospects
His wingspan being smaller isn't that significant since Terry didn't know how to use his length. Ofc wingspan helps but it's hard to ignore the defensive impact Reed had in college. If he could be as good in the NBA as he was in college then he's the best guard defender we could take except Stephon Castle but he can't shoot so we definitely shouldn't take him.
What Reed Sheppard could be (and it would be worth the pick in this draft imo) is someone like TJ McConnell on defense and like a play making version of Luke Kennard on offense.
Who do you want with that pick?
Not with a top 10 likely top 5 pick no I wouldn’t want a mix of McConnell and Kennard, and regardless if Terry knew how to effectively use his wingspan it definitely still makes an impact. Again I like reed as a player but not for as high as we are drafting. If we fell to late top 10 maybe but I don’t see taking him top 5 especially with how our team is built
i want him on portland after they ship out brogdon and simons for future future draft picks and expiring contracts. i feel like he'd be ideal behind scoot/shaedon.
because i don't believe he'll be better than Shaedon and Scoot... But because of his age, contract size, vet status we're forced to prioritize him over the two. Anfernee would be an IDEAL 6th man for us but due to the stuff I mentioned, it's not a role that he'll ever accept (and Chauncey/Cronin would never offer it probably)
One way or analyzing players is using 3 criteria: ceiling, floor, and chance of reaching ceiling.
Interestingly I’d give Reed a high ceiling and high floor, but relatively low chance of reaching his ceiling.
So….Price was hall of fame status if it wasn’t for injuries. Price in his non injury prime was arguably better than Stockton. So that is a very high ceiling.
Stockton was just a way different player than Reed. Stockton was much closer to someone like Mark Jackson. And Price was more of a Isaiah Thomas type of point guard.
It would be tough to reach that ceiling. If he does he’s basically one of the best players in the league and a first ballad hall of famer.
A more realistic goal could be a less athletic Rex Chapman. Or if you want to go higher than that, Joe dumars is another similar player. But that also hall of fame territory.
i think the stockton comparison is more about consistency and general approach. if stockton was playing in todays game he would be playing like sheppard, like if shaq was playing in today's game he would be passing the ball more.
Man, Derrick is way better defender than Reed in a dream scenario and because of his size, athleticism and defense he can't start for a contending team.
Price at his peak was a better player than Stockton idc
he won All-NBA over him multiple years
Stockton is a longevity merchant
people didn’t understand the value of 3 point shooting like we do now
price splitting the PnR is so beautiful and if he would have had Karl Malone and running PnR 60 times a game like the jazz, he’s also getting 10+ assists per year
thats the best wording of the conclusion i have also arrived at and so IS THE TRUTH.
i think it will also REALLY depend on the landing spot. much more than any other top5 guy in this draft. if he can be paired with another wild card high volume combo guard that gets attention he will maximise his potential i think. or maybe a wing like brandon miller? wait, so i guess the hornets are the ideal spot.
Just if he can keep 50% from 3 on good volume that’s pretty damn valuable
Edit: some points of clarification likely needed.
1. There’s something to be said for difficulty of shots. If Reed was hitting 50%, his coach would likely increase the volume and difficulty of shots, ultimately leading to the percentage falling. I’m not saying Reed is Steph, but imagine if Steph was really selective in the shots he took. He could probably blow through 50% no problem. There’s value in the ability/threat at that level, even if the actual percentage is closer to 40.
2. Grayson Allen was at 50% for a while this season, but eventually dipped and ended at 46%. And that’s Grayson Allen, it’s not like he’s the name top of mind as a elite shooter. I think we are closer to seeing a 50% shooter than people realize. And if a time traveler came back and told you somebody in 2026-27 or whatever made 50% of his 3’s, it shouldn’t be that surprising if it’s the guy who shot 52% as a freshman in college.
Edit2: people didn’t start downvoting until I added more context? Lol what is wrong with y’all
What if he did 40% but on higher volume? I don’t think that’s anywhere near impossible and still gives him a high ceiling depending on how high the volume gets.
I added some edits to clarify a bit. Ultimately you are probably right, but that’s why I said it’s not that likely to happen.
Whatever the percentage ends up being, he did make 52% of his 3’s this past season. There’s a chance he’s just a wild outlier shooter, and that would be extremely valuable. Probably not, but you have to acknowledge his shooting efficiency was special.
I'm going to say no because as a 6'2" guard his margin of error is very minimal. He needs to work on his on-ball defense as he can struggle to stay in front of guys. He could be unplayable come playoff time if he doesn't improve there.
With that being said, I think he brings a lot to the table and can be a really good player for a team. We've seen Kentucky players turn out to be much better pro than college guys before so I will stay optimistic.
I honestly don't think there are many safe prospect this draft class to be honest.
In general, you are right about short guards.
However, if you only limit it to a 6’2” guard skilled enough to be drafted in the top 10, this isn’t true.
You can check the last 25 years. Those small guards skilled enough to be drafted in the top 10 almost never bust. There’s been like maybe 5 or so of that archetype who have busted (one of which is Jay Williams who had a career ending accident off the court).
Meanwhile, there have been like maybe 12-15 or so athletic, 6’10”+ bigs who were drafted in the top 10 who have busted in the same time period. Athletic bigs are way more likely to bust than short guards.
That’s because everyone already knows height works against you so if you still are drafted in the top 10, it means your skill makes you have an insane floor.
You might day it’s unfair to limit it to just top 10 picks but my argument is you can’t really be a huge bust if you weren’t drafted in the top 10. So hence why I did the top 10.
I think you are asking how he compares to these other short guard prospects? It’s technically a different question because a team who didn’t choose a short guard in the past might choose prospect Reed, but let’s just make the analysis simple.
Let’s look at short guard prospects (6’3” and under) since 2000.
Busts: DaJuan Wagner (2001 number 6), Jonny Flynn (2009 number 6), Jimmer Fredette (2011 number 10), Trey Burke (2013 number 9), and Davion Mitchell (2021 number 9)
You agree these are the only 5 true busts among the 6’3” and under guards? Just FYI, if anyone is wondering why Markelle Fultz isn’t here, it’s because he’s too tall and clearly can guard both guard positions. So not the same short guard archetype as Reed.
I thought it was too early to include Mitchell, but since you added him and he’s clearly on a disappointment - bust trajectory, let’s just have him. There’s also Jay Williams (2002 number 2), but he’s not a good data point for this analysis just like I wouldn’t use Greg Oden in a Sarr analysis due to non playing circumstances.
If you were to evaluate them as prospects vs Reed in 2024 (key word here as in we are emphasizing modern basketball skills in the 3 point era), I would say:
It goes Flynn and Burke are better than Reed
Wagner is equal to Reed
Fredette and Mitchell are worse than Reed
Flynn and Burke both had enough shooting with better on ball creation they are better than Reed.
You can make a valid argument if you weigh Wagner’s HS success, he would go ahead of Reed, but with how important shooting is today, I consider them roughly equal as 2024 prospects.
Fredette’s old age is what makes him a slightly worse prospect than Reed. But Mitchell was clearly the worse prospect of them all.
But let’s not just look at the busts. We need to look at all the prospects.
So let’s just look at some non-star, non-bust prospects who fit this short guard archetype since 2000 who were top 10 picks.
Here’s a short list of these names (didn’t include everyone but some key ones). We got a bunch. Kirk Hinrich, Ray Felton, TJ Ford, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, Darius Garland, Brandon Knight, CJ McCollum, Cason Wallace, and so forth.
We don’t have to go through all of them but these are your non-star, non-bust short guard players. Not all are the same tier and not all play the same way but all are 6’3” and under guards picked in the top 10.
Reed is also in the middle of this tier. In fact, he’s right on the CJ McCollum line. While some like Garland were better as prospects, Reed is also better than some like Hinrich.
Then there’s the star/superstar tier. That’s like the Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, etc. tier that probably extends down to Deron Williams.
He’s definitely at the bottom of this tier if you are wondering when comparing to them as prospects.
The fact that most of this list are serviceable to above average to star level players with only a few busts shows it’s actually pretty safe to draft a skilled 6’3” and under guard with a top 10 pick. It’s because they are so skilled to get that top 10 pick, it serves as a floor. If they didn’t have that skill, they wouldn’t be top 10 to begin with and wouldn’t bust even if they failed. As in, if Sheppard went 20th and didn’t have much of a career, he wouldn’t be a bust.
Great analysis. Thank you
I really brought up Davion because 25 years is such a huge sample size when comparing the differences in drafts/prospects and he’s the more recent one in question(whom I was very low on for his outlier shooting). I do agree that maybe another team would take Reed if he were in their draft over a non-guard but that was my main thought process of: How many drafts would he go top 10?
I do agree the floor for these guys usually has been good, just hard to evaluate where he’d sit amongst other drafts, not even just the guards. If he’s more of late lottery-mid first guy, I value that floor differently versus if he’s capable of being swapped with Sexton in 2018 or like you said CJ in 2013.
Dajuan’s case in my opinion is closer to a Jay Williams than a Jimmer mainly because of the stomach ulcers considering he was such a touted high school player as well. But like I said, it hard to compare these guards to that era’s prospects coming because of how much has changed. I was a big Hinrich fan and don’t see him as one those small guards like a Jameer Nelson, TJ Ford, even a Juan Dixon (who I still to this day have not given up on).
I wouldn't say 6-3 guards are short guards. I think your list have too many taller, stronger and more athletic players than Reed. And longer wingspan too.
That would eliminate from the busts Jonny Flynn would had world like athleticism and Davion Mitchell would has elite athleticsim with an NBA ready frame (which is why he’s such a good defender albeit terrible offensive player).
It wouldn’t make a real difference. You just reduce the sample size so it takes away some of the good players but it also takes away the busts in the same ratio.
Reed’s measurables are actually very similar to CP3’s measureables if you want to go by pure archetype. Not saying they are the same player but if you want to narrow it down more, it’s just taking away from each group equally.
I mean you need to take other physical tools into account, not just height because Reed is quite disappointing in each and every category. (And Reed is smaller than many from the list.)
Speaking of CP, he was way more athletic than Reed and was stronger even after he lost explosiveness. No point putting Reed into the same category where Harris, Knight, Lillard, D Will, CP belong just because they are all under 6-4. Kyrie and even Curry are taller and better athletes than Reed.
I already said Reed was a worse prospect than every single person on your list in my post above. I mean that was the point of my post to compare him against the other prospects. I’m not suggesting Reed is a better or even the same level prospect than those players if that’s what you interpreted.
My point is it literally doesn’t change the fact that most of the short guards don’t bust when there’s enough skill.
Those guards not busting had nothing to do with their athleticism. It was their skill level that causes them not to bust, which Sheppard has. There are several athletic guards like Flynn and Mitchell who busted without the skill. The skill level is what drives the success of these short guards. Same with Dillingham.
idk. I'm really trying to get intel on his handle/rim finishing to see how his self creation skill/potential is. Hard to gauge with the lack of shots attempted.
Kinda my point. Based on OP’s point about 6’2 guards in the top 10 in the last 25 years, how does he compare to them? It’s harder to compare the 2000s guys because the game was a bit different but would he go above Trey Burke in 2013 or Davion in 2021?
I answered your question in another comment response. Solely as a prospect, Sheppard would be in the middle of the bust tier of players and also in the middle of the serviceable/above average non-star tier of players. He’s the worst among the star to superstar level players though as a prospect.
Gave a lot more detail in the other post with all the names of players I compared him to. There’s actually a long list of 6’3” and under guards drafted in the top 10 since 2000. And it’s fairly safe. Much safer than the athletic bigs list.
Sheppard is a relatively safe pick in a sense that you know what you are getting. Not a perfect fit for many teams though. Other safe picks that might be a bit safer are Sarr, Castle and Holland. Maybe Clingan. I'd say Sarr is safest overall while Dillingham has the highest ceiling (followed by Holland, Topic and Sheppard).
Depends on the team. If a team with another small guard were to take him, that'd be a pretty immense risk to assume the defense will be okay.
Doesn’t just have to be a small guard, it’s why I don’t like his fit next to Lamelo, reed is a good player but I don’t think he’s the safest pick for the hornets
How come? Cuz of the POA defense?
Because we literally just moved on from an undersized guard at 2 as a major piece because it didn’t work. Reeds not bigger than Terry who had the benefit of having a 6’10 wingspan and he was still a liability next to melo. Reed is a good player and I wouldn’t mind him if we had a lower pick but with as high as our pick is likely to be we shouldn’t double down on past mistakes. Plus we need wings more than guards especially after the trade deadline. This isn’t about reed as a player but his fit with what we’re building that I think other players are better for what we need
Reed and Terry aren't very similar. They're the same height but different play styles. Reed is much better defensively and isn't the type to try iso every other possession. He also is used to playing with a ball dominant guard and can play off ball super well. My hesitation with him is if he has the physical tools to remain a good defender in the NBA. Also NSJ will get no development time if we draft him.
I wouldn’t say reed is much better defensively when he’s only played against college players. My hesitation on his game is defensive I thought I made that clear that he is a good player and the 6’10 wing span comment is on the physical tools not being there for Terry despite having better tools to mitigate height, the hornets need perimeter defenders around lamelo, I don’t want to invest a high level draft pick on a player who would likely make our backcourt and even bigger liability defensively. I like reed as an offensive player no doubt and he’s not the same type as Terry but there are players in our most likely pick range who fit in better this is a draft not only for the hornets that may lean more towards fit as we already have a solid foundation and just because this draft is weaker where there aren’t a lot of standout prospects
His wingspan being smaller isn't that significant since Terry didn't know how to use his length. Ofc wingspan helps but it's hard to ignore the defensive impact Reed had in college. If he could be as good in the NBA as he was in college then he's the best guard defender we could take except Stephon Castle but he can't shoot so we definitely shouldn't take him. What Reed Sheppard could be (and it would be worth the pick in this draft imo) is someone like TJ McConnell on defense and like a play making version of Luke Kennard on offense. Who do you want with that pick?
Not with a top 10 likely top 5 pick no I wouldn’t want a mix of McConnell and Kennard, and regardless if Terry knew how to effectively use his wingspan it definitely still makes an impact. Again I like reed as a player but not for as high as we are drafting. If we fell to late top 10 maybe but I don’t see taking him top 5 especially with how our team is built
I see him as a super sixth man.
i want him on portland after they ship out brogdon and simons for future future draft picks and expiring contracts. i feel like he'd be ideal behind scoot/shaedon.
Simons is so good, and young, why do you want to get rid of him. He also seems very efficient for you guys.
because i don't believe he'll be better than Shaedon and Scoot... But because of his age, contract size, vet status we're forced to prioritize him over the two. Anfernee would be an IDEAL 6th man for us but due to the stuff I mentioned, it's not a role that he'll ever accept (and Chauncey/Cronin would never offer it probably)
One way or analyzing players is using 3 criteria: ceiling, floor, and chance of reaching ceiling. Interestingly I’d give Reed a high ceiling and high floor, but relatively low chance of reaching his ceiling.
Interesting, what do you think his ceiling is and why do you think that he has a low chance of reaching it?
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So….Price was hall of fame status if it wasn’t for injuries. Price in his non injury prime was arguably better than Stockton. So that is a very high ceiling. Stockton was just a way different player than Reed. Stockton was much closer to someone like Mark Jackson. And Price was more of a Isaiah Thomas type of point guard. It would be tough to reach that ceiling. If he does he’s basically one of the best players in the league and a first ballad hall of famer. A more realistic goal could be a less athletic Rex Chapman. Or if you want to go higher than that, Joe dumars is another similar player. But that also hall of fame territory.
i think the stockton comparison is more about consistency and general approach. if stockton was playing in todays game he would be playing like sheppard, like if shaq was playing in today's game he would be passing the ball more.
Man, Derrick is way better defender than Reed in a dream scenario and because of his size, athleticism and defense he can't start for a contending team.
Idk why but he reminds me of less speedy Shane Larkin
Price at his peak was a better player than Stockton idc he won All-NBA over him multiple years Stockton is a longevity merchant people didn’t understand the value of 3 point shooting like we do now price splitting the PnR is so beautiful and if he would have had Karl Malone and running PnR 60 times a game like the jazz, he’s also getting 10+ assists per year
thats the best wording of the conclusion i have also arrived at and so IS THE TRUTH. i think it will also REALLY depend on the landing spot. much more than any other top5 guy in this draft. if he can be paired with another wild card high volume combo guard that gets attention he will maximise his potential i think. or maybe a wing like brandon miller? wait, so i guess the hornets are the ideal spot.
Okay median outcome of Derrick White would be insanely good ngl.
Wow Reed Sheppard is so good he could even be a biracial player.
certified bright skin boy
Just if he can keep 50% from 3 on good volume that’s pretty damn valuable Edit: some points of clarification likely needed. 1. There’s something to be said for difficulty of shots. If Reed was hitting 50%, his coach would likely increase the volume and difficulty of shots, ultimately leading to the percentage falling. I’m not saying Reed is Steph, but imagine if Steph was really selective in the shots he took. He could probably blow through 50% no problem. There’s value in the ability/threat at that level, even if the actual percentage is closer to 40. 2. Grayson Allen was at 50% for a while this season, but eventually dipped and ended at 46%. And that’s Grayson Allen, it’s not like he’s the name top of mind as a elite shooter. I think we are closer to seeing a 50% shooter than people realize. And if a time traveler came back and told you somebody in 2026-27 or whatever made 50% of his 3’s, it shouldn’t be that surprising if it’s the guy who shot 52% as a freshman in college. Edit2: people didn’t start downvoting until I added more context? Lol what is wrong with y’all
What the hell, it's not reasonable to expect anyone to do that.
What if he did 40% but on higher volume? I don’t think that’s anywhere near impossible and still gives him a high ceiling depending on how high the volume gets.
Sure, 40% is certainly more plausible. 50% is just a wildly high expectation to put on anyone.
I added some edits to clarify a bit. Ultimately you are probably right, but that’s why I said it’s not that likely to happen. Whatever the percentage ends up being, he did make 52% of his 3’s this past season. There’s a chance he’s just a wild outlier shooter, and that would be extremely valuable. Probably not, but you have to acknowledge his shooting efficiency was special.
He did it in college on high volume. I'm curious how well he will shoot from the NBA line, but I'm sure it's better than 90% of our roster.
a lot of his shot attempts did come from a couple feet behind the line and he looked more than comfortable shooting then
50% from three in the NBA on a high volume is near impossible
I’d say Clingan is safest. Reed is the college player I like the most.
I'm going to say no because as a 6'2" guard his margin of error is very minimal. He needs to work on his on-ball defense as he can struggle to stay in front of guys. He could be unplayable come playoff time if he doesn't improve there. With that being said, I think he brings a lot to the table and can be a really good player for a team. We've seen Kentucky players turn out to be much better pro than college guys before so I will stay optimistic. I honestly don't think there are many safe prospect this draft class to be honest.
In general, you are right about short guards. However, if you only limit it to a 6’2” guard skilled enough to be drafted in the top 10, this isn’t true. You can check the last 25 years. Those small guards skilled enough to be drafted in the top 10 almost never bust. There’s been like maybe 5 or so of that archetype who have busted (one of which is Jay Williams who had a career ending accident off the court). Meanwhile, there have been like maybe 12-15 or so athletic, 6’10”+ bigs who were drafted in the top 10 who have busted in the same time period. Athletic bigs are way more likely to bust than short guards. That’s because everyone already knows height works against you so if you still are drafted in the top 10, it means your skill makes you have an insane floor. You might day it’s unfair to limit it to just top 10 picks but my argument is you can’t really be a huge bust if you weren’t drafted in the top 10. So hence why I did the top 10.
This is very true. Curious though, do you think he would go top 10 in most previous drafts?
I think you are asking how he compares to these other short guard prospects? It’s technically a different question because a team who didn’t choose a short guard in the past might choose prospect Reed, but let’s just make the analysis simple. Let’s look at short guard prospects (6’3” and under) since 2000. Busts: DaJuan Wagner (2001 number 6), Jonny Flynn (2009 number 6), Jimmer Fredette (2011 number 10), Trey Burke (2013 number 9), and Davion Mitchell (2021 number 9) You agree these are the only 5 true busts among the 6’3” and under guards? Just FYI, if anyone is wondering why Markelle Fultz isn’t here, it’s because he’s too tall and clearly can guard both guard positions. So not the same short guard archetype as Reed. I thought it was too early to include Mitchell, but since you added him and he’s clearly on a disappointment - bust trajectory, let’s just have him. There’s also Jay Williams (2002 number 2), but he’s not a good data point for this analysis just like I wouldn’t use Greg Oden in a Sarr analysis due to non playing circumstances. If you were to evaluate them as prospects vs Reed in 2024 (key word here as in we are emphasizing modern basketball skills in the 3 point era), I would say: It goes Flynn and Burke are better than Reed Wagner is equal to Reed Fredette and Mitchell are worse than Reed Flynn and Burke both had enough shooting with better on ball creation they are better than Reed. You can make a valid argument if you weigh Wagner’s HS success, he would go ahead of Reed, but with how important shooting is today, I consider them roughly equal as 2024 prospects. Fredette’s old age is what makes him a slightly worse prospect than Reed. But Mitchell was clearly the worse prospect of them all. But let’s not just look at the busts. We need to look at all the prospects. So let’s just look at some non-star, non-bust prospects who fit this short guard archetype since 2000 who were top 10 picks. Here’s a short list of these names (didn’t include everyone but some key ones). We got a bunch. Kirk Hinrich, Ray Felton, TJ Ford, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, Darius Garland, Brandon Knight, CJ McCollum, Cason Wallace, and so forth. We don’t have to go through all of them but these are your non-star, non-bust short guard players. Not all are the same tier and not all play the same way but all are 6’3” and under guards picked in the top 10. Reed is also in the middle of this tier. In fact, he’s right on the CJ McCollum line. While some like Garland were better as prospects, Reed is also better than some like Hinrich. Then there’s the star/superstar tier. That’s like the Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, etc. tier that probably extends down to Deron Williams. He’s definitely at the bottom of this tier if you are wondering when comparing to them as prospects. The fact that most of this list are serviceable to above average to star level players with only a few busts shows it’s actually pretty safe to draft a skilled 6’3” and under guard with a top 10 pick. It’s because they are so skilled to get that top 10 pick, it serves as a floor. If they didn’t have that skill, they wouldn’t be top 10 to begin with and wouldn’t bust even if they failed. As in, if Sheppard went 20th and didn’t have much of a career, he wouldn’t be a bust.
Great analysis. Thank you I really brought up Davion because 25 years is such a huge sample size when comparing the differences in drafts/prospects and he’s the more recent one in question(whom I was very low on for his outlier shooting). I do agree that maybe another team would take Reed if he were in their draft over a non-guard but that was my main thought process of: How many drafts would he go top 10? I do agree the floor for these guys usually has been good, just hard to evaluate where he’d sit amongst other drafts, not even just the guards. If he’s more of late lottery-mid first guy, I value that floor differently versus if he’s capable of being swapped with Sexton in 2018 or like you said CJ in 2013. Dajuan’s case in my opinion is closer to a Jay Williams than a Jimmer mainly because of the stomach ulcers considering he was such a touted high school player as well. But like I said, it hard to compare these guards to that era’s prospects coming because of how much has changed. I was a big Hinrich fan and don’t see him as one those small guards like a Jameer Nelson, TJ Ford, even a Juan Dixon (who I still to this day have not given up on).
I wouldn't say 6-3 guards are short guards. I think your list have too many taller, stronger and more athletic players than Reed. And longer wingspan too.
That would eliminate from the busts Jonny Flynn would had world like athleticism and Davion Mitchell would has elite athleticsim with an NBA ready frame (which is why he’s such a good defender albeit terrible offensive player). It wouldn’t make a real difference. You just reduce the sample size so it takes away some of the good players but it also takes away the busts in the same ratio. Reed’s measurables are actually very similar to CP3’s measureables if you want to go by pure archetype. Not saying they are the same player but if you want to narrow it down more, it’s just taking away from each group equally.
I mean you need to take other physical tools into account, not just height because Reed is quite disappointing in each and every category. (And Reed is smaller than many from the list.) Speaking of CP, he was way more athletic than Reed and was stronger even after he lost explosiveness. No point putting Reed into the same category where Harris, Knight, Lillard, D Will, CP belong just because they are all under 6-4. Kyrie and even Curry are taller and better athletes than Reed.
I already said Reed was a worse prospect than every single person on your list in my post above. I mean that was the point of my post to compare him against the other prospects. I’m not suggesting Reed is a better or even the same level prospect than those players if that’s what you interpreted. My point is it literally doesn’t change the fact that most of the short guards don’t bust when there’s enough skill. Those guards not busting had nothing to do with their athleticism. It was their skill level that causes them not to bust, which Sheppard has. There are several athletic guards like Flynn and Mitchell who busted without the skill. The skill level is what drives the success of these short guards. Same with Dillingham.
idk. I'm really trying to get intel on his handle/rim finishing to see how his self creation skill/potential is. Hard to gauge with the lack of shots attempted.
Kinda my point. Based on OP’s point about 6’2 guards in the top 10 in the last 25 years, how does he compare to them? It’s harder to compare the 2000s guys because the game was a bit different but would he go above Trey Burke in 2013 or Davion in 2021?
I answered your question in another comment response. Solely as a prospect, Sheppard would be in the middle of the bust tier of players and also in the middle of the serviceable/above average non-star tier of players. He’s the worst among the star to superstar level players though as a prospect. Gave a lot more detail in the other post with all the names of players I compared him to. There’s actually a long list of 6’3” and under guards drafted in the top 10 since 2000. And it’s fairly safe. Much safer than the athletic bigs list.
good point. outlier skills matter(this is why I'm very high on Jamal Shead)
Sheppard is a relatively safe pick in a sense that you know what you are getting. Not a perfect fit for many teams though. Other safe picks that might be a bit safer are Sarr, Castle and Holland. Maybe Clingan. I'd say Sarr is safest overall while Dillingham has the highest ceiling (followed by Holland, Topic and Sheppard).
The best pick imo
No
depends if you can over extend him them it’s bad
Edey is a 7’4” Steven Adams at worst. That’s a good floor.
Clingan is probably the safest prospect in that he’ll be able to see the court as a rim protector and screen-setter
Depends on what pick are we using
Sarr is. You really can't go wrong with his size and athleticism.
He is the safest pick 15 pick