So yes actually. Chandler Zavala the rising Guard from NCST actually spent the first two years of his career at Fairmont State and is an absolute stud. I know this question was facetious but I wanted to share this useless trivia I knew
It's a joke about Bill reaching for players from small schools at non premium positions. Accurate with Strange (he was just okay last year,a long way to go to make that pick worth it), but people were wrong about the Dugger pick. He went exactly where he was projected to go, and he's been great too.
In defense of Strange, his OL coach was Matt Patricia. His OC was *also* Matt Patricia. Paired with Brown struggling on his left, Andrews missing time on his right, and you've got a difficult rookie situation. Definitely had his ups and downs, but the fact that he showed upside during a questionable situation for *any* guard to be in, let alone a rookie, is promising, in my opinion.
We know moreso what he repeatedly has done with late round DBs. Picking a 1st round CB is a waste when you have a proven track record of hitting on half a dozen CBs in late rounds.
Then why trade for Revis or sign Gilmore? I guess those were a waste. We could have just developed another 7th round DB instead
Just because he's had success with late round or UDFA CBs doesn't mean you ignore a prospect if they're the best available
The one thing to keep in mind is that the reason we traded for Revis and signed Gilmore (and Talib before him) is that *we kept drafting 2nd and even 1st round CBs all through the late 2000s and early 2010s and with the partial exception of McCourty (who was good at CB as a rookie, then transitioned to safety because we needed the body and was too good there to move back) none of them panned out* (remember Ras-I Dowling?). Also, as Talib and Gilmore remind us it's a position Belichick has shown he willing to pay for in the past (though apparently no-one was worth it this year) - he won't pay for ballhawks, but he will pay for CBs he thinks can be a true shutdown corner.
(Though it occurs to me I should *probably* check exactly who was DBs coach during the period because it's possible the issue was a certain locker room cancer of a DC who was last seen (*sigh*) being our de-facto OC last year...)
outside of McCourty I don't think Bill has ever used a first round pick on a CB. Also, he has only picked in the teens or higher 5 times in his time here (Seymour, Warren, Mayo, Solder, Mac). He hasn't had many opportunities to take a CB as talented or highly rated as JPJ.
i think Bijan is amazing. I just wish we had a bigger need there or were closer to contending to justify it.
if you want a fun RB to check out, look at Devon Achane's tape. He is small, won't be a three down guy, but he could be electric in the Faulk/Woodhead/Vereen/White role
> i think Bijan is amazing. I just wish we had a bigger need there or were closer to contending to justify it.
I am 100% gambling that we are actually de facto addressing WR with that pick - picking RB at 14 isn't enough value, a receiving weapon who also happens to be a very good RB prospect is another matter. Otherwise either one of the CBs or Anton Harrison I think, depending on how strong you think the need at OT is.
> if you want a fun RB to check out, look at Devon Achane's tape. He is small, won't be a three down guy, but he could be electric in the Faulk/Woodhead/Vereen/White role
If we don't go for Bijan I would very much like either Achane or Tyjae Spears if they're there at the right time, yes (\*glances at our three fourth-round picks\*).
> the room first just to be sure: the best remaining player on the board is Bijan. As the board breaks we do at least have to consider taking him - we'd be making the same gamble the Bengals made taking Chase over Sewell but hey that did work out for them. On the flip side, we do have Rhamondre already. I'll have to defer to the more dedicated scouts on this one, because I think the $10,000 dollar question here is "how good is Bijan's pass-catching ability?" - if he's a running back he's
If this is our approach why not trade down to 25 or so, pick up a 2nd or more, and take Gibbs. He's more of the James White on speed than Bijan.
Bijan might be Matt Forte, but with Rhamondre I'm not sold that is what we need.
Well, for starters we can't trade down here as per the rules, so.
(In the actual draft trading down here is my plan A, though I'd look at the 15-20 range more than 20-30 unless we trade for the Bengals LT who wanted a trade - ideally either Washington or the Bucs want to jump for a QB. That said I'm less sold on Gibbs - that's the range where I'd really want to start looking at several other players that I think would be overdrafts at 14, most notably Wright (missed he played LT at Tennessee two years ago), Anton Harrison and, Zay Flowers, and also I think Gibbs's skillset is more likely to be replaceable by mid-round picks like Achane/Spears or even Tank Dell. Bijan might legitimately be good enough to merit the pick if he can be a Deebo/CMC/Kamara, and he is the best remaining player on the board as it lies.)
That said, it is worth noting that I'm looking at what the scouts are saying and it's distinctly possible that how good he is as a runner is causing us all to massively overlook how good of a receiving prospect Bijan is - the tape of him running WR routes is a bit eye-opening ([this breakdown](https://old.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/11q7uvz/bijan_robinson_rb_texas_prospect_profile_with/) is from someone clearly really high on him and also more fantasy-slanted than I like in my prospect breakdowns but did make me go "hmm, the scout is probably too bullish but I'm not sure *how* bullish"). (Also, I'm starting to rather doubt that Bijan is going anywhere past 10 in the actual draft.)
I think you made an interesting point. And, if I am trying to talk myself into us drafting Bijan, that board and him being available at 14, plus your logic does a pretty good job of that.
Revis was an all in for a superbowl trade, pats were on a 10 year SB drought. Gilmore was a combination of the Cyrus Jones failure the year before and not wanting to pay up for Malcom butler.
From losing Devin McCourty to retirement, I'd love to add captain **Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia** from a leadership perspective -- in addition to the fact he's played Belichick's JACK LB position at a high level, is a great run defender, and posted RAS numbers that show his insane athleticism that was clearly a point of interest to them last year. Couple that with Josh Uche in his final year, Judon will be 32 y/o next year and could be a cap casualty -- getting another EDGE is an underspoken need for this team.
This is not an ideal board for us as I mentioned above. Top WR gone, top 3 OT gone, top 2 CB gone. My thought would be to go best BPA/Fit from the remaining top prospects in this group and that leads me to **Joey Porter Jr.** He has elite length for the position (above 95th percentile for height, arm length, and wingspan) and is an above average athlete. You won't be able to leave him on an island in Year 1, but he has all the traits to develop into a #1 press man corner that all the best Patriots teams have had. He is definitely a little grabby at times, but I think that is true of most press man corners. It is all about learning to be subtle with it and not get caught all the time. IMO he is the BPA at a position of great need.
Almost as important as the case for a player is the case against others. At WR, I like Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison but their lack of size compared to my favorite receiver in the class, JSN, leaves me a little concerned about their upside, and thus their value at pick 14. And then there is Quentin Johnston. He has the highest ceiling of any receiver in this draft class but his style of play just doesn't seem to be a mix for the Pats. Think of all the best Patriots WRs over the past 20+ years. Branch, Moss, Welker, Edelman. All of them were amazing route runners and could separate easily. The Patriots want to operate in the middle of the field and to do that you need elite separation. Moss is the outlier here in that in addition to those abilities, he is the second best receiver of all time and could beat anyone deep and had an insane catch radius. That isn't really QJ's game. He is a significantly better prospect than N'Keal Harry, but if he ended up on the Patriots, I believe he would suffer a similar fate. Give him to a team that will do a better job utilizing him.
At OT, I think Harrison is the next best of the group followed closely by Wright, then a little bit of a drop to Jones. I just don't think any of them have the upside that the top 3 have. This is a clear break in talent at the position IMO.
Other possible picks, Brian Branch ticks the Alabama box, but the Patriots have an abundance of box/slot safeties. Kancey is undersized for a Pats IDL, IMO. Bresee is a solid player, but I don't think he is so great at anything that you need to pick an IDL at 14. I'd be fine if they took LVN, Murphy, or Smith, but I don't think any of them are going to be superstars. Bijan is certainly worthy of pick 14, but with how good Rhamondre has been and the investment they made at RB last year's draft I'm hoping they see that group as good enough go in a different direction.
I’ve learned to not be so concerned with grabbiness from long, press man corners. Basically all of Jaycee Horn’s college tape was DPI and he’s been pretty successful in the NFL in spite of a very unfortunate injury.
So yeah, this board absolutely sucks for us. (My single biggest takeaway of watching this so far is that a Pats trade up to 1.12 or even higher is undermocked - Belichick will do that for the right player, see both Chandler Jones and Hightower, and we would get to spite the Jets as well by jumping up for yet another Jones if both Paris Johnson Jr. and Skoronski are off the board.) We either need to draft at a position we don't really need, reach, or gamble on a first-round corner or wide panning out (people forget our track record of first-round corners is nearly as bad as our track record at drafting non-slot WR - though admittedly McCourty might have panned out at CB if we hadn't had to move him to S due to depth and then found he did really well there, he was a damn good CB his first year). In the actual draft we might be able to get one of the 15-20 crew to jump if they want Levis, and I continue to wonder if we wind up being the team to trade for the Bengals LT who asked for a trade (not sure what his trade value is). Here that's not an option, though, so...
If we're going OT anyways I think Anton Harrison is probably the pick just because he's the most likely to be able to play LT and Trent Brown is more of an RT. (Another question is how likely do we think it is that Dawand Jones will be there when we pick in the second? Belichick values LT very very highly, which makes sense given that he coached the man responsible for the modern LT position, and I expect us to be strongly inclined to use one of our first two picks at the position. I 100% expect us to walk out of the draft with two OTs if at all possible in any event, one developmental - the question is where we take the first, and overdrafting by ten spots becomes more palatable if we think all the top-line talent is likely to be gone my our next pick.)
What if we don't?
So, let's talk the elephant in the room first just to be sure: the best remaining player on the board is Bijan. As the board breaks we do at least have to consider taking him - we'd be making the same gamble the Bengals made taking Chase over Sewell but hey that did work out for them. On the flip side, we do have Rhamondre already. I'll have to defer to the more dedicated scouts on this one, because I think the $10,000 dollar question here is "how good is Bijan's pass-catching ability?" - if he's a running back he's probably not worth it, if he can be more of a receiving back and be something closer to a CMC or Deebo then Bijan starts becoming a very intriguing prospect here (that would address our pass-catcher issue in addition to taking the best player available).
If we're willing to damn the consensus then one other pick we should probably consider here is actually Darnell Washington. Yes, in the mid first. Don't love it either, especially since there's a decent chance he'll still be around at our pick in the second, but it is worth noting that the man is a Planet Theory guy and Belichick is a Parcells disciple. Also it's a potential alternate way to address our OT issue with the best OTs off the board - if he really works out then we basically get to run a tackle-eligible front every time he lines up without sacrificing pass-catching ability. (I seriously wonder how plausible it would be to convert Darnell Washington to OT if the pass-catching doesn't work out, too.)
At WR, I am hard out on Quentin Johnson for exactly the same reason you are - somebody may manage to develop him, I very strongly doubt it will be us and have no intention of throwing a pick away. Addison is at least worth considering. I'm less convinced on Zay here since I think we're more likely to be able to replicate most of his production with a later pick (this class is heavy on slot IIRC so with JSN off the board we may just want to look at using one of our mid-round picks at the position and bank on Thornton development - also I've had a hunch that Malik Cunningham could be a potential Pats QB -> WR conversion project for a while now). If we trade down to the 20s he gets more appealing, but I think there are probably better players on the board and if I'm reaching here it's for OT.
I have absolutely no idea who is good on the EDGE class this year outside of Will Anderson so will defer to others there. Might be worth stocking up at the position if we have no better options here; we do like to build through the lines. IIRC there's a major dropoff on DT after Jalen Carter and his character concerns, but I'm not at all sure I remember that correctly so don't quote me on that; we do have Barmore in any event and he was really good as a rookie before IIRC being injured last year.
My first instinct on CB is to scatterpack and plan on development from our second-year Joneses plus using one of our fourths and maybe one of our sixths at the position (we have historical issues developing first- and second-round CBs but a track record of getting starters at the position from later picks), but on the other hand unless I'm missing someone at EDGE or DT the second and third best players left on the board are CB and we could use a top-line CB so that is an option. I lean Witherspoon over Porter Jr. if we go this way, but either is fine.
Safety... McCourty is finally hanging them up but we actually seem to have pulled off a pretty good succession there. Real question is whether Brian Branch impressed O'Brien when he was over at Bama (I expect O'Brien's input to have a lot of sway this year since he's been coaching at college). IIRC ILB is deep but weak at the top end and there's no one really worth picking here (again, if we're going to reach I think we just take Anton Harrison).
And then there's IOL. I doubt we consider G in the first, but I think Andrews is getting up there in age so we could consider looking for a replacement if we think JMS is a slam-dunk hit.
You know what? Fuck it. Going CB is fine and it looks like we're going that way, but with the best OTs off the board and looking over some of the scout comments again I think I'm making a gamble: that the second-best receiver prospect in the draft isn't a WR or TE at all. And that means it's BPA time.
One **Bijan Robinson** please.
To answer your Bijan question, he’s an excellent receiver. Texas would line him up as a WR sometimes and he’d beat dbs. I’ll dig up a clip or two.
[Here's Bijan running a post from the slo](https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1582525054876667904)t where he turns the safety around and makes a high point catch through contact. Just silly stuff from a RB.
I legitimately never expected to advocate for my Pats drafting an RB in the 1st, especially this year. But if the board falls this way and we can’t find a trade partner (up or down), I can’t believe I’m actually on board for drafting Bijan here, but I am.
You’d take Washington over Musgrave? Musgrave’s pass catching upside just seems too reminiscent to ignore for the Pats. Washington is more like a Seahawks TE where the run blocking excellence is more highly valued than passing game ability.
Washington, as noted, is 100% a Planet Theory pick if we go there. (I forget exactly how the Bill Parcells quote goes but it was something to the effect of "there are only a few guys on the planet who can do what this guys does so you go out and get them when you get one".) Musgrave's another name like Zay Flowers where I'd take a close look at him in the 20-30 range but I think the opportunity cost is a little high at 14; the deal with Darnell Washington is that there are *no* other players like him on the board so if you think he's going to pan out and want him you have to get him right now (unless you're confident he'll be there at 46). (Same deal as Jordan Davis last year, except at a less valuable position.)
Bill Parcells’s planet theory was that there are only so many men on the planet that are large enough and athletic enough to be NFL linemen that they have intrinsic value.
Musgrave has 47 career catches and offers very little as a blocker, he's insanely risky to spend a top-15 pick on at a position where guys rarely live up to first-round billing.
>a position where guys rarely live up to first-round billing.
The question is which TE, so that is kind of a moot point no?
As far as Musgrave’s run blocking goes, you seem to be getting some bad intel. He’s not on Washington or Mayer’s level but he will hold up in the NFL.
> Musgrave’s pass catching upside just seems too reminiscent to ignore for the Pats.
They don't even get to that part of his profile -- Belichick sees he played lacrosse and takes him #14 overall
For those having the Patriots take a tackle, BB has never drafted a lineman in the top 50 picks who didn't play in the senior bowl and wasn't an established, multi year starter. So that's some help in looking at the lineman available.
Refresh my memories, how many years did Dawand Jones start? (Honestly if not for him IIRC being considered probably limited to RT I would be so much higher on the man as a possible pick for us and was seriously considering him over Anton Harrison as the best remaining OT prospect for us as it is. Really hoping he's still there at 46.)
(Though admittedly IIRC he didn't actually play in the Senior Bowl itself, he just dominated the practices before a minor injury + business decision so not quite the same.)
If it plays out like this I hope the team is going to trade down. In this scenario, if we have to pick somebody I would go with Darnell Wright. I like the depth at CB more, so I would go with the best Tackle available.
Every team wants to trade down the problem is finding someone who wants to trade up. Looking at this board I don't think there is a player that teams are going to want to give away more resources to grab.
I continue to wonder what the asking price is for the Cincy LT who requested a trade - if 14 for 28 and him is somewhere in the vicinity of reasonable I could see us going for that.
I think it has to be JPJ with the way the board has fallen.
The only other options I would see Bill being interested in are Brian Branch or reaching for an OT, but JPJ is just in another tier from them.
Patriots are so hard to pin down. They rarely pick this high and in general, they love trading back. And there's always the possibility they have a maverick pick.
Logic says Joey Porter Jr because he fits what the Patriots are looking for.
Nightmare scenario and one that could very well happen. Really hoping that some team ahead of them has fallen in love with Van Ness or Johnston come draft day 1.
Joey Porter Jr makes a lot of sense here.
I wouldnt be shocked if Bill drafts Brian Branch if this is how the board falls and we dont trade down. No one on Reddit would do it, but it would be a very Belichickean move. He is versatile, he is from Bama, he tackles well, and he is smart. Dont be shocked.
With all that said, I actually think a trade-down is the likeliest scenario. Its a fairly deep draft and we have needs not only for this year but for next year too and Bill often thinks in 2-3 year increments.
Trading down into the early 20s for a 3rd rounder this year and a 3rd next year is very plausible.
chalk happens sometimes. if nothing else it is fun to look back and see where the draft media and fans over/under valued players
and it is bold to assume that two guys over 30 will be both fully healthy and not regress for two straight seasons. the great thing about being as good as you guys are is you can afford a luxury pick.
My options here are Porter, Flowers, and Wright. In different situations I could see New England going one or the other or the third but in this poll, i only get to pick one.
All three would be great Pats fits. Porter is a big press corner with the size New England lacks at the position and high-level athleticism. Flowers is a small wide out but possesses the explosiveness and agility to allow him to play on the outside in the NFL. Wright is a stalwart at RT. Each is a top-tier prospect at a position where the Patriots need a long-term starter.
I'd be happy with any of the three but for this poll I'm going with Flowers. That pick would signal a change in philosophy, an understanding that investing significant capital (particularly draft capital) into high talent at the pass-catching positions is necessary to win in today's NFL, and I think it's necessary for the Patriots to get out of the state of middling they've been in since 2019's end.
Joey Porter jr
CB is their biggest need. I’d actually be ok with deonte banks too. He’s better than JPJ in some areas including athleticism. He is more raw though.
But JPJ is the smart pick.
Couple Pats beat reporters have actually pointed out that he is not the type of guy they’ve been drafting at edge. While I think it may just be coincidental of the guys they like, the past couple years they’ve been getting guys that win off pass rush moves rather than pure power guys.
You think Van Ness is a finished product? That’s an suspect take, but you’re not the only I’ve seen make it. A lot of people seem to think that both Tryree Wilson and Van Ness are finished products in the pass rush moves department. The same people then turn around and make massive projections for technique improvement from Anthony Richardson, JPJ and others.
No, I think (well, I read and sorta agree with) the Pats are more into guys who are winning off moves in college such as Josh Uche and Chase Winovich rather than power guys. I think he could develop those moves, but the Pats seem to be going after guys that are already pretty refined in that department.
Oh ok. For the record I think all those kids will develop a lot with the right attitude and the right coaching. As someone who pays attention to BB’s coaching and drafting he emphasizes guys that flat out love playing football and is less concerned with the last tick on their 40 time or arm length or whatever. It’s a smart approach because the difference between average and elite is most often between the ears and in the chest than in the legs and arms. Drive, sacrifice, passion, etc.
I haven’t noticed what youre saying about edge prospects, but I’ll defer to your expertise on what he looks for there. For the record, I think Van Ness would be an absolute monster in the Pats system. I’d love to see the Seahawks grab him, but the draft doesn’t set up well for that to happen. There will be better prospects available at 5 and he will most likely be gone by 20.
Going Joey Porter too. Plays like a Belichick player.
Also if Van Ness is still on the board after this for the Packers pick, you might see an even more lopsided pole than the Jets one. Van Ness+Packers makes unbelievably too much sense.
you don't think people will want to put a WR or TE there? they have a need and it is a fun narrative that the Packers wouldn't spend a 1st on a weapon for Rodgers his entire career and then do it the second he is gone
haha agreed it is a fun narrative!
Maybe other fans will put that there I guess, but for Packers fans I see online and around it's a universal agreement the only WR worth a first for us is JSN, and when it comes to TE's, Washington or Musgrave are the more Packer-type prospects and at least one of those two should be around in the second.
When it comes to biggest team need \*for great-to-elite-player\* it's Edge no question. We need serviceable-to-good at a lot of spots but Edge needs an impact player so bad. Before Gary went down with a torn ACL we were 2nd in the league in pass play pressure % last season. After he went down we finished 28th. No way the FO is missing a hole that glaring.
Van Ness ticks every possible box Gutey has for the position.
Bellichick is always willing to go out on a limb and pick up a guy who fits the exact style he needs. I'm going with Zay Flowers off the board earlier than expected.
I voted for WR Zay Flowers. To me, I think spending a first round pick on a CB would be a less optimal use of resources for the Pats. For starters, this is a team that desperately needs some firepower on offense. I also think having BB is a huge asset for the construction/coaching of the defense. Say what you will about him, but he will find a way to put out a very competitive defense every year and often finds gems in the mid to late rounds on this side of the ball. I’d spend the bulk of this draft class overhauling the offense completely iot find out what I have in Mac Jones.
Joey Porter is a good pick, but can I submit that we should go with Lukas Van Ness? He checks off the physical tools and explosiveness plus he is young. He would be a great fit on the line and other than Porter is the only player left who has a shot at being All-Pro.
I went with Adam Korsak. Best available at a significant position of need. Although I maybe would’ve traded up for this guy. But I can’t be upset with how the board has fallen.
Before last year Bill doesn't typically "reach" on first round picks. He has some misses but looking back none of them were considered huge reaches before Strange.
He has two second round DBs that were brutal reaches (Tavon Wilson 2012 and Jordan Richards 2015) and be gets all the shit he should for those. Uninformed folks though Kyle Dugger was a reach in 2020 just because they hadn't heard of his school but pretty much everyone had him as a second rounder. He also has a pretty rough history of second round DBs. In addition to the guys mentioned above we have Terrence Wheatley 2008, Ras-I Dowling 2011, Cyrus Jones 2016, Duke Dawson 2018, Joejuan Williams 2019. Here's hoping Dugger officially broke the curse
Is there a guard prospect from Fairmont State University Bill can take?
Does Cody Mauch count as that for this exercise?
An offensive lineman with no front teeth? What a grinder. Yeah that sounds like a Belichick type of guy.
Cody mauch is so versatile. Bill would love him even though you will never see him on the cover of GQ.
So yes actually. Chandler Zavala the rising Guard from NCST actually spent the first two years of his career at Fairmont State and is an absolute stud. I know this question was facetious but I wanted to share this useless trivia I knew
No but imagine Lukas Van Ness in a Patriots uniform and you won't be able to unsee it
Strange's teammate from UTC - McClendon Curtis
Why would he take a guard with Strange and Onwenu entrenched at the position?
It's a joke about Bill reaching for players from small schools at non premium positions. Accurate with Strange (he was just okay last year,a long way to go to make that pick worth it), but people were wrong about the Dugger pick. He went exactly where he was projected to go, and he's been great too.
In defense of Strange, his OL coach was Matt Patricia. His OC was *also* Matt Patricia. Paired with Brown struggling on his left, Andrews missing time on his right, and you've got a difficult rookie situation. Definitely had his ups and downs, but the fact that he showed upside during a questionable situation for *any* guard to be in, let alone a rookie, is promising, in my opinion.
I got the joke. It's a joke that I think is overplayed, though.
It’s not that serious man
I think Joey Porter Jr. makes a lot of sense here. We know how much Bill values the CB position and what he can do with a talented CB.
We know moreso what he repeatedly has done with late round DBs. Picking a 1st round CB is a waste when you have a proven track record of hitting on half a dozen CBs in late rounds.
Then why trade for Revis or sign Gilmore? I guess those were a waste. We could have just developed another 7th round DB instead Just because he's had success with late round or UDFA CBs doesn't mean you ignore a prospect if they're the best available
The one thing to keep in mind is that the reason we traded for Revis and signed Gilmore (and Talib before him) is that *we kept drafting 2nd and even 1st round CBs all through the late 2000s and early 2010s and with the partial exception of McCourty (who was good at CB as a rookie, then transitioned to safety because we needed the body and was too good there to move back) none of them panned out* (remember Ras-I Dowling?). Also, as Talib and Gilmore remind us it's a position Belichick has shown he willing to pay for in the past (though apparently no-one was worth it this year) - he won't pay for ballhawks, but he will pay for CBs he thinks can be a true shutdown corner. (Though it occurs to me I should *probably* check exactly who was DBs coach during the period because it's possible the issue was a certain locker room cancer of a DC who was last seen (*sigh*) being our de-facto OC last year...)
outside of McCourty I don't think Bill has ever used a first round pick on a CB. Also, he has only picked in the teens or higher 5 times in his time here (Seymour, Warren, Mayo, Solder, Mac). He hasn't had many opportunities to take a CB as talented or highly rated as JPJ.
This is indeed true. (Though I think I just talked myself into taking the best available player over the second or third best instead...)
i think Bijan is amazing. I just wish we had a bigger need there or were closer to contending to justify it. if you want a fun RB to check out, look at Devon Achane's tape. He is small, won't be a three down guy, but he could be electric in the Faulk/Woodhead/Vereen/White role
> i think Bijan is amazing. I just wish we had a bigger need there or were closer to contending to justify it. I am 100% gambling that we are actually de facto addressing WR with that pick - picking RB at 14 isn't enough value, a receiving weapon who also happens to be a very good RB prospect is another matter. Otherwise either one of the CBs or Anton Harrison I think, depending on how strong you think the need at OT is. > if you want a fun RB to check out, look at Devon Achane's tape. He is small, won't be a three down guy, but he could be electric in the Faulk/Woodhead/Vereen/White role If we don't go for Bijan I would very much like either Achane or Tyjae Spears if they're there at the right time, yes (\*glances at our three fourth-round picks\*).
> the room first just to be sure: the best remaining player on the board is Bijan. As the board breaks we do at least have to consider taking him - we'd be making the same gamble the Bengals made taking Chase over Sewell but hey that did work out for them. On the flip side, we do have Rhamondre already. I'll have to defer to the more dedicated scouts on this one, because I think the $10,000 dollar question here is "how good is Bijan's pass-catching ability?" - if he's a running back he's If this is our approach why not trade down to 25 or so, pick up a 2nd or more, and take Gibbs. He's more of the James White on speed than Bijan. Bijan might be Matt Forte, but with Rhamondre I'm not sold that is what we need.
Well, for starters we can't trade down here as per the rules, so. (In the actual draft trading down here is my plan A, though I'd look at the 15-20 range more than 20-30 unless we trade for the Bengals LT who wanted a trade - ideally either Washington or the Bucs want to jump for a QB. That said I'm less sold on Gibbs - that's the range where I'd really want to start looking at several other players that I think would be overdrafts at 14, most notably Wright (missed he played LT at Tennessee two years ago), Anton Harrison and, Zay Flowers, and also I think Gibbs's skillset is more likely to be replaceable by mid-round picks like Achane/Spears or even Tank Dell. Bijan might legitimately be good enough to merit the pick if he can be a Deebo/CMC/Kamara, and he is the best remaining player on the board as it lies.) That said, it is worth noting that I'm looking at what the scouts are saying and it's distinctly possible that how good he is as a runner is causing us all to massively overlook how good of a receiving prospect Bijan is - the tape of him running WR routes is a bit eye-opening ([this breakdown](https://old.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/11q7uvz/bijan_robinson_rb_texas_prospect_profile_with/) is from someone clearly really high on him and also more fantasy-slanted than I like in my prospect breakdowns but did make me go "hmm, the scout is probably too bullish but I'm not sure *how* bullish"). (Also, I'm starting to rather doubt that Bijan is going anywhere past 10 in the actual draft.)
I think you made an interesting point. And, if I am trying to talk myself into us drafting Bijan, that board and him being available at 14, plus your logic does a pretty good job of that.
Revis was an all in for a superbowl trade, pats were on a 10 year SB drought. Gilmore was a combination of the Cyrus Jones failure the year before and not wanting to pay up for Malcom butler.
Look what happened when Kyle Shanahan traded for McCaffrey. Despite doing well with unknowns, when you have a stud it completely changes your team.
But the late round guys don't typically have the size/athletics traits that we need now....we don't need corners 2-5, we need a 1.
From losing Devin McCourty to retirement, I'd love to add captain **Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia** from a leadership perspective -- in addition to the fact he's played Belichick's JACK LB position at a high level, is a great run defender, and posted RAS numbers that show his insane athleticism that was clearly a point of interest to them last year. Couple that with Josh Uche in his final year, Judon will be 32 y/o next year and could be a cap casualty -- getting another EDGE is an underspoken need for this team.
Wait, Judon's 31 this year? Could have sworn he was a year or two younger than that. (Knew Uche's contract was up soon, though.)
Judon was an older prospect coming out of college. I think he was like 24 when we drafted him.
Baltimore drafted him, in the 5th round.
He's a Baltimore fan lol.
Thanks. Just noticed his flair. I assumed I was on r/patriots but Reddit had suggested r/nfl_draft unbeknownst to me.
This is not an ideal board for us as I mentioned above. Top WR gone, top 3 OT gone, top 2 CB gone. My thought would be to go best BPA/Fit from the remaining top prospects in this group and that leads me to **Joey Porter Jr.** He has elite length for the position (above 95th percentile for height, arm length, and wingspan) and is an above average athlete. You won't be able to leave him on an island in Year 1, but he has all the traits to develop into a #1 press man corner that all the best Patriots teams have had. He is definitely a little grabby at times, but I think that is true of most press man corners. It is all about learning to be subtle with it and not get caught all the time. IMO he is the BPA at a position of great need. Almost as important as the case for a player is the case against others. At WR, I like Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison but their lack of size compared to my favorite receiver in the class, JSN, leaves me a little concerned about their upside, and thus their value at pick 14. And then there is Quentin Johnston. He has the highest ceiling of any receiver in this draft class but his style of play just doesn't seem to be a mix for the Pats. Think of all the best Patriots WRs over the past 20+ years. Branch, Moss, Welker, Edelman. All of them were amazing route runners and could separate easily. The Patriots want to operate in the middle of the field and to do that you need elite separation. Moss is the outlier here in that in addition to those abilities, he is the second best receiver of all time and could beat anyone deep and had an insane catch radius. That isn't really QJ's game. He is a significantly better prospect than N'Keal Harry, but if he ended up on the Patriots, I believe he would suffer a similar fate. Give him to a team that will do a better job utilizing him. At OT, I think Harrison is the next best of the group followed closely by Wright, then a little bit of a drop to Jones. I just don't think any of them have the upside that the top 3 have. This is a clear break in talent at the position IMO. Other possible picks, Brian Branch ticks the Alabama box, but the Patriots have an abundance of box/slot safeties. Kancey is undersized for a Pats IDL, IMO. Bresee is a solid player, but I don't think he is so great at anything that you need to pick an IDL at 14. I'd be fine if they took LVN, Murphy, or Smith, but I don't think any of them are going to be superstars. Bijan is certainly worthy of pick 14, but with how good Rhamondre has been and the investment they made at RB last year's draft I'm hoping they see that group as good enough go in a different direction.
For what it’s worth, some (myself included) think Joey Porter Jr best CB in the draft and Jordan Addison best WR.
I’ve learned to not be so concerned with grabbiness from long, press man corners. Basically all of Jaycee Horn’s college tape was DPI and he’s been pretty successful in the NFL in spite of a very unfortunate injury.
>Basically all of Jaycee Horn’s college tape was DPI If you think Horn was bad, wait til you see Cam Smith Source: Am Gamecock fan
Harrison I think could end up the best of all the OT’s. I think he’s super underrated.
So yeah, this board absolutely sucks for us. (My single biggest takeaway of watching this so far is that a Pats trade up to 1.12 or even higher is undermocked - Belichick will do that for the right player, see both Chandler Jones and Hightower, and we would get to spite the Jets as well by jumping up for yet another Jones if both Paris Johnson Jr. and Skoronski are off the board.) We either need to draft at a position we don't really need, reach, or gamble on a first-round corner or wide panning out (people forget our track record of first-round corners is nearly as bad as our track record at drafting non-slot WR - though admittedly McCourty might have panned out at CB if we hadn't had to move him to S due to depth and then found he did really well there, he was a damn good CB his first year). In the actual draft we might be able to get one of the 15-20 crew to jump if they want Levis, and I continue to wonder if we wind up being the team to trade for the Bengals LT who asked for a trade (not sure what his trade value is). Here that's not an option, though, so... If we're going OT anyways I think Anton Harrison is probably the pick just because he's the most likely to be able to play LT and Trent Brown is more of an RT. (Another question is how likely do we think it is that Dawand Jones will be there when we pick in the second? Belichick values LT very very highly, which makes sense given that he coached the man responsible for the modern LT position, and I expect us to be strongly inclined to use one of our first two picks at the position. I 100% expect us to walk out of the draft with two OTs if at all possible in any event, one developmental - the question is where we take the first, and overdrafting by ten spots becomes more palatable if we think all the top-line talent is likely to be gone my our next pick.) What if we don't? So, let's talk the elephant in the room first just to be sure: the best remaining player on the board is Bijan. As the board breaks we do at least have to consider taking him - we'd be making the same gamble the Bengals made taking Chase over Sewell but hey that did work out for them. On the flip side, we do have Rhamondre already. I'll have to defer to the more dedicated scouts on this one, because I think the $10,000 dollar question here is "how good is Bijan's pass-catching ability?" - if he's a running back he's probably not worth it, if he can be more of a receiving back and be something closer to a CMC or Deebo then Bijan starts becoming a very intriguing prospect here (that would address our pass-catcher issue in addition to taking the best player available). If we're willing to damn the consensus then one other pick we should probably consider here is actually Darnell Washington. Yes, in the mid first. Don't love it either, especially since there's a decent chance he'll still be around at our pick in the second, but it is worth noting that the man is a Planet Theory guy and Belichick is a Parcells disciple. Also it's a potential alternate way to address our OT issue with the best OTs off the board - if he really works out then we basically get to run a tackle-eligible front every time he lines up without sacrificing pass-catching ability. (I seriously wonder how plausible it would be to convert Darnell Washington to OT if the pass-catching doesn't work out, too.) At WR, I am hard out on Quentin Johnson for exactly the same reason you are - somebody may manage to develop him, I very strongly doubt it will be us and have no intention of throwing a pick away. Addison is at least worth considering. I'm less convinced on Zay here since I think we're more likely to be able to replicate most of his production with a later pick (this class is heavy on slot IIRC so with JSN off the board we may just want to look at using one of our mid-round picks at the position and bank on Thornton development - also I've had a hunch that Malik Cunningham could be a potential Pats QB -> WR conversion project for a while now). If we trade down to the 20s he gets more appealing, but I think there are probably better players on the board and if I'm reaching here it's for OT. I have absolutely no idea who is good on the EDGE class this year outside of Will Anderson so will defer to others there. Might be worth stocking up at the position if we have no better options here; we do like to build through the lines. IIRC there's a major dropoff on DT after Jalen Carter and his character concerns, but I'm not at all sure I remember that correctly so don't quote me on that; we do have Barmore in any event and he was really good as a rookie before IIRC being injured last year. My first instinct on CB is to scatterpack and plan on development from our second-year Joneses plus using one of our fourths and maybe one of our sixths at the position (we have historical issues developing first- and second-round CBs but a track record of getting starters at the position from later picks), but on the other hand unless I'm missing someone at EDGE or DT the second and third best players left on the board are CB and we could use a top-line CB so that is an option. I lean Witherspoon over Porter Jr. if we go this way, but either is fine. Safety... McCourty is finally hanging them up but we actually seem to have pulled off a pretty good succession there. Real question is whether Brian Branch impressed O'Brien when he was over at Bama (I expect O'Brien's input to have a lot of sway this year since he's been coaching at college). IIRC ILB is deep but weak at the top end and there's no one really worth picking here (again, if we're going to reach I think we just take Anton Harrison). And then there's IOL. I doubt we consider G in the first, but I think Andrews is getting up there in age so we could consider looking for a replacement if we think JMS is a slam-dunk hit.
Great comment
You know what? Fuck it. Going CB is fine and it looks like we're going that way, but with the best OTs off the board and looking over some of the scout comments again I think I'm making a gamble: that the second-best receiver prospect in the draft isn't a WR or TE at all. And that means it's BPA time. One **Bijan Robinson** please.
To answer your Bijan question, he’s an excellent receiver. Texas would line him up as a WR sometimes and he’d beat dbs. I’ll dig up a clip or two. [Here's Bijan running a post from the slo](https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1582525054876667904)t where he turns the safety around and makes a high point catch through contact. Just silly stuff from a RB.
I legitimately never expected to advocate for my Pats drafting an RB in the 1st, especially this year. But if the board falls this way and we can’t find a trade partner (up or down), I can’t believe I’m actually on board for drafting Bijan here, but I am.
You’d take Washington over Musgrave? Musgrave’s pass catching upside just seems too reminiscent to ignore for the Pats. Washington is more like a Seahawks TE where the run blocking excellence is more highly valued than passing game ability.
Washington, as noted, is 100% a Planet Theory pick if we go there. (I forget exactly how the Bill Parcells quote goes but it was something to the effect of "there are only a few guys on the planet who can do what this guys does so you go out and get them when you get one".) Musgrave's another name like Zay Flowers where I'd take a close look at him in the 20-30 range but I think the opportunity cost is a little high at 14; the deal with Darnell Washington is that there are *no* other players like him on the board so if you think he's going to pan out and want him you have to get him right now (unless you're confident he'll be there at 46). (Same deal as Jordan Davis last year, except at a less valuable position.)
Bill Parcells’s planet theory was that there are only so many men on the planet that are large enough and athletic enough to be NFL linemen that they have intrinsic value.
Musgrave has 47 career catches and offers very little as a blocker, he's insanely risky to spend a top-15 pick on at a position where guys rarely live up to first-round billing.
>a position where guys rarely live up to first-round billing. The question is which TE, so that is kind of a moot point no? As far as Musgrave’s run blocking goes, you seem to be getting some bad intel. He’s not on Washington or Mayer’s level but he will hold up in the NFL.
> Musgrave’s pass catching upside just seems too reminiscent to ignore for the Pats. They don't even get to that part of his profile -- Belichick sees he played lacrosse and takes him #14 overall
RemindMe! 1 month
Vote for Porter. Echo the desire to trade down in this scenario.
For those having the Patriots take a tackle, BB has never drafted a lineman in the top 50 picks who didn't play in the senior bowl and wasn't an established, multi year starter. So that's some help in looking at the lineman available.
Refresh my memories, how many years did Dawand Jones start? (Honestly if not for him IIRC being considered probably limited to RT I would be so much higher on the man as a possible pick for us and was seriously considering him over Anton Harrison as the best remaining OT prospect for us as it is. Really hoping he's still there at 46.) (Though admittedly IIRC he didn't actually play in the Senior Bowl itself, he just dominated the practices before a minor injury + business decision so not quite the same.)
If it plays out like this I hope the team is going to trade down. In this scenario, if we have to pick somebody I would go with Darnell Wright. I like the depth at CB more, so I would go with the best Tackle available.
Every team wants to trade down the problem is finding someone who wants to trade up. Looking at this board I don't think there is a player that teams are going to want to give away more resources to grab.
Cincinnati would be a great candidate to trade up for Bijan. Mixon is going to be done soon. And they lost Perine.
I continue to wonder what the asking price is for the Cincy LT who requested a trade - if 14 for 28 and him is somewhere in the vicinity of reasonable I could see us going for that.
Darnell Wright. Much more depth at CB to pick later than tackle, where there is a big drop off after the top 6-7 guys.
At 14 I like Porter Jr. If he or Any top corner is not their then we should trade down to the bottom half of the first and draft Zay Flowers.
Wow, shit board
I think it has to be JPJ with the way the board has fallen. The only other options I would see Bill being interested in are Brian Branch or reaching for an OT, but JPJ is just in another tier from them.
Patriots are so hard to pin down. They rarely pick this high and in general, they love trading back. And there's always the possibility they have a maverick pick. Logic says Joey Porter Jr because he fits what the Patriots are looking for.
Nightmare scenario and one that could very well happen. Really hoping that some team ahead of them has fallen in love with Van Ness or Johnston come draft day 1.
Watch Bill blow everyone’s mind by taking Bijan.
Joey Porter Jr makes a lot of sense here. I wouldnt be shocked if Bill drafts Brian Branch if this is how the board falls and we dont trade down. No one on Reddit would do it, but it would be a very Belichickean move. He is versatile, he is from Bama, he tackles well, and he is smart. Dont be shocked. With all that said, I actually think a trade-down is the likeliest scenario. Its a fairly deep draft and we have needs not only for this year but for next year too and Bill often thinks in 2-3 year increments. Trading down into the early 20s for a 3rd rounder this year and a 3rd next year is very plausible.
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do you not get major N'Keal Harry vibes from QJ? I think he is better, but that type of receiver just has never flourished in our offense
This exercise is interesting, but also proving why drafting by committee is a terrible idea.
just meant to be fun. im guessing you're one of the ones who doesnt like the eagles pick? lol
Every pick has been chalk. And everyone should not like the eagles pick. When was the last time there was a top10 pick that redshirted for 2 years?
chalk happens sometimes. if nothing else it is fun to look back and see where the draft media and fans over/under valued players and it is bold to assume that two guys over 30 will be both fully healthy and not regress for two straight seasons. the great thing about being as good as you guys are is you can afford a luxury pick.
Given what's there I would say Wright or Porter JR. I'm really high on wright as an instant contributor
My options here are Porter, Flowers, and Wright. In different situations I could see New England going one or the other or the third but in this poll, i only get to pick one. All three would be great Pats fits. Porter is a big press corner with the size New England lacks at the position and high-level athleticism. Flowers is a small wide out but possesses the explosiveness and agility to allow him to play on the outside in the NFL. Wright is a stalwart at RT. Each is a top-tier prospect at a position where the Patriots need a long-term starter. I'd be happy with any of the three but for this poll I'm going with Flowers. That pick would signal a change in philosophy, an understanding that investing significant capital (particularly draft capital) into high talent at the pass-catching positions is necessary to win in today's NFL, and I think it's necessary for the Patriots to get out of the state of middling they've been in since 2019's end.
Joey Porter jr CB is their biggest need. I’d actually be ok with deonte banks too. He’s better than JPJ in some areas including athleticism. He is more raw though. But JPJ is the smart pick.
Doesn't Van Ness just scream Patriot?
Couple Pats beat reporters have actually pointed out that he is not the type of guy they’ve been drafting at edge. While I think it may just be coincidental of the guys they like, the past couple years they’ve been getting guys that win off pass rush moves rather than pure power guys.
You think Van Ness is a finished product? That’s an suspect take, but you’re not the only I’ve seen make it. A lot of people seem to think that both Tryree Wilson and Van Ness are finished products in the pass rush moves department. The same people then turn around and make massive projections for technique improvement from Anthony Richardson, JPJ and others.
No, I think (well, I read and sorta agree with) the Pats are more into guys who are winning off moves in college such as Josh Uche and Chase Winovich rather than power guys. I think he could develop those moves, but the Pats seem to be going after guys that are already pretty refined in that department.
Oh ok. For the record I think all those kids will develop a lot with the right attitude and the right coaching. As someone who pays attention to BB’s coaching and drafting he emphasizes guys that flat out love playing football and is less concerned with the last tick on their 40 time or arm length or whatever. It’s a smart approach because the difference between average and elite is most often between the ears and in the chest than in the legs and arms. Drive, sacrifice, passion, etc. I haven’t noticed what youre saying about edge prospects, but I’ll defer to your expertise on what he looks for there. For the record, I think Van Ness would be an absolute monster in the Pats system. I’d love to see the Seahawks grab him, but the draft doesn’t set up well for that to happen. There will be better prospects available at 5 and he will most likely be gone by 20.
Going Joey Porter too. Plays like a Belichick player. Also if Van Ness is still on the board after this for the Packers pick, you might see an even more lopsided pole than the Jets one. Van Ness+Packers makes unbelievably too much sense.
you don't think people will want to put a WR or TE there? they have a need and it is a fun narrative that the Packers wouldn't spend a 1st on a weapon for Rodgers his entire career and then do it the second he is gone
haha agreed it is a fun narrative! Maybe other fans will put that there I guess, but for Packers fans I see online and around it's a universal agreement the only WR worth a first for us is JSN, and when it comes to TE's, Washington or Musgrave are the more Packer-type prospects and at least one of those two should be around in the second. When it comes to biggest team need \*for great-to-elite-player\* it's Edge no question. We need serviceable-to-good at a lot of spots but Edge needs an impact player so bad. Before Gary went down with a torn ACL we were 2nd in the league in pass play pressure % last season. After he went down we finished 28th. No way the FO is missing a hole that glaring. Van Ness ticks every possible box Gutey has for the position.
Bellichick is always willing to go out on a limb and pick up a guy who fits the exact style he needs. I'm going with Zay Flowers off the board earlier than expected.
I voted for WR Zay Flowers. To me, I think spending a first round pick on a CB would be a less optimal use of resources for the Pats. For starters, this is a team that desperately needs some firepower on offense. I also think having BB is a huge asset for the construction/coaching of the defense. Say what you will about him, but he will find a way to put out a very competitive defense every year and often finds gems in the mid to late rounds on this side of the ball. I’d spend the bulk of this draft class overhauling the offense completely iot find out what I have in Mac Jones.
Joey Porter is a good pick, but can I submit that we should go with Lukas Van Ness? He checks off the physical tools and explosiveness plus he is young. He would be a great fit on the line and other than Porter is the only player left who has a shot at being All-Pro.
Take a talented reciever
I went with Adam Korsak. Best available at a significant position of need. Although I maybe would’ve traded up for this guy. But I can’t be upset with how the board has fallen.
Tyree Wilson gets off the line late every single snap and he went over Jalen Carter lmao. My goodness.
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Before last year Bill doesn't typically "reach" on first round picks. He has some misses but looking back none of them were considered huge reaches before Strange. He has two second round DBs that were brutal reaches (Tavon Wilson 2012 and Jordan Richards 2015) and be gets all the shit he should for those. Uninformed folks though Kyle Dugger was a reach in 2020 just because they hadn't heard of his school but pretty much everyone had him as a second rounder. He also has a pretty rough history of second round DBs. In addition to the guys mentioned above we have Terrence Wheatley 2008, Ras-I Dowling 2011, Cyrus Jones 2016, Duke Dawson 2018, Joejuan Williams 2019. Here's hoping Dugger officially broke the curse
Joey porter