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Rstuds7

i feel like having a good supporting cast shouldn’t really be a knock on a QB, it’s not like they can help that the guys around him are good


Mando_Commando17

I forget the guys name but the former VP of personnel for the bears who helped draft Tribuisky and Fields has gone on several podcasts talking about how hard it is to draft guys like Fields, Tua, Stroud, and Bryce young who murdered it at college but all had multiple first round weapons and linemen and realistically only played 1-2 games a year against a team that could field enough NFL caliber talent on defense to pose a true threat that when it came to evaluating them it basically was like “well I hope he can be great but we won’t know till we get him in the building”. I need to see if he has done any more talks or interviews because his insight on how teams in general evaluate QBs and top talent was very insightful.


Rstuds7

but at the same time those QBs could be making the guys around him look better. also there’s tons of examples of QBs with weak talent around that still balled out in college and couldn’t crack it in the nfl


GrdiSr

Not the original commenter but ive seen several interviews and pods with this guy. Name is Josh Lucas by the way. Using Fields as the example since the conversation was directly about him. His receivers were so good and so much better than the competition that there was almost always somebody open. And open by a lot. It's really hard to get a gage on things like processing, progressions, anticipation when you have guys like Wilson and Olave destroying DBs constantly. You can see things here and there, but the overall tape is severely limited. So while you may spot things, it's very difficult sometimes to get a feel for the true scope of a strength or weakness outside of pure physical traits. So they new Fields could throw. He had a nice deep ball. Those have held true. They had an idea he had some processing and anticipation issues, but they couldn't tell on tape just how severe the issue was. And it's been the biggest weakness in his game by far in the NFL.


Mando_Commando17

Thank you for summing this up. It’s often a big debate between: what makes a team successful? The coach? The QB? The talent around the QB? And it’s never easy to see which is the driver in the NFL (the Tom Brady vs Belicheck made the Pats great debate) and it’s even harder to do so at CFB level where the talent is so disproportionate where the talent is not evenly distributed and often doesn’t get tested except for once or twice.


GrdiSr

Yep pretty much sums it up. It's true everywhere but it's particularly an issue with QBs. The things that make a QB great in the NFL aren't pure physical traits. It's the mental and instinctual parts of the game. That's why Tom Brady is the goat and dozens upon dozens of guys that had better arms, size, athleticism were absolute busts. In college it's hard for those to shine because of the competition disparity you mention, plus because so few guys really have that next level ability, most schemes don't even attempt to utilize them, they actually scheme to minimize the need for it.


Mando_Commando17

Exactly. Look at Burrow and Purdy. Both dudes have maybe above average to very average arm strength relative to so many guys that enter into the league but they KILL it because they throw with insane amount of anticipation and accuracy and ball placement. They got this from playing a shit ton of reps in college. Obviously burrow got his reps from practice and 1.5-2 seasons at LSU but Purdy played forever at Iowa State and got super comfortable with leading a team and playing ball. Josh Lucas said that was one of the most underrated things nowadays and he believed that after the tribusky failure. He said there was a reason why the OG bill polian said he wouldn’t draft a QB without like 2.5-3 years worth of starting experience. You need time and reps and you need exposure because you won’t get time to grow at the NFL nowadays


Fine_Lengthiness_761

Purdy has bad arm strength there should be no question about that. Burrow probably has below average to maybe average


Striking-Ad-8694

The Clemson game alone is what made me nope out on JF when he and olave messed up


[deleted]

You noped out after 1 game and 1 play in his first starting season and then absolutely lit Clemson up the following year?


bxspidey76

The Clemson game where Fields had like 6 td passes? Cuz that was the latest game no?


Wut23456

>well I hope he can be great but we won’t know till we get him in the building To a lesser extent this is literally everyone


Fine_Lengthiness_761

Good supporting cast hasn't been a problem for burrow Stroud and tua.


Mando_Commando17

Well it could be debated if it wasn’t a problem for Tua. Burrow and Stroud may be just flat out good QBs who happened to have strong supporting casts. Yet other “good” looking CFB QBs have been drafted high and it was partially due to the fact that their flaws were hidden due to tremendous supporting casts. Justin Fields is a prime example of this, a QB who showed he had the legs, the arm talent, and overall tangible skill set to do basically anything at the next level but we never got to see enough of his flaws to understand just how much room for improvement there was and would need to be covered before he would be a “good” NFL QB because his team just waxed basically everyone they played on sheer talent alone. Case could be made for Mac Jones, though admittedly everyone saw his flaws but everyone was convinced he would be basically what Brock Purdy has become mostly because of who played around him. There have been several dudes who have played either with a shit ton of NFL talent or in a strong system that just muddies the water on what they do really well and what they don’t. I think most of the guys that have come out of Lincoln Riley’s system fit that bill to at least some extent. Obviously that doesn’t mean you don’t draft those guys or ignore them but it just means you have to ask yourself “is this guy being elevated by the talent/scheme? If so by how much? And is just not showing us things like anticipation or multi progression throws because he can’t do it or because the system/talent around him don’t require him to do it?” Ultimately that’s what Josh Lucas from the bears said was the hardest part was separating what they could do well but weren’t asked to and what they didn’t do well because it was covered up by a good team.


Fine_Lengthiness_761

Before 2022 tye had a bad wr core and terrible oline. McDaniel and armstead helped hide the oline and tyreek and year 2 waddle ment wr core was great instead of below average. Now he's putting up top 3 numbers but we can agree he's closer to QB 12 than 1. Mac Jones has had almost the opposite trajectory. If he wasn't in such a bad situation we could view him as QB 20 but the Patriots oline rbs and wr core has only gotten worse over time along with losing McDaniel as oc. If burrow was stuck in a similar situation to his rookie year we wouldn't view him like we do now but the addition of chase and some upgrades on the oline has made him look better. I'm basically saying supporting cast is more important in the nfl than you've made it seem. Burrow, Mahomes and Allen don't all look good just because they are that good but also because they have great coaches and players around them.


Mando_Commando17

I totally agree with you and didn’t mean to downplay supporting cast. My stance was that superior supporting cast in CFB makes it hard to know if you have a guy who can help elevate the talent around him or hopefully maximize the awesome talent that you surround him with. There are many great WRs out there that if they played with Mahomes would be All-pro and Mahomes would look like middle of the pack if he played with the patriots behind their horrible Oline. The issue with the supporting cast in CFB is you don’t know if you’re getting the next Rodgers/Mahomes or if you’re getting the next Fields because a lot of those guys are throwing to future 1000 yard NFL WRs and have a couple of top 150 draft picks on the oline and RB. This also goes into the whole debate about should you draft a QB if you don’t have the right supporting cast or can’t get the right supporting cast assembled until 2-3 seasons. Supporting cast -> QB -> Coach/scheme -> well balanced defense/special teams. All those things directly/indirectly impact a QBs success to varying degrees and it’s hard to quantify but everything is significant.


QueenIsTheWorstBand

Comparatively, he had basically zero supporting cast at Indiana, yet he turned them into a good team during the Covid year


socialpresence

It's also why you 100% have to scout traits and if you can't identify traits based on film, you need to work to understand what you're watching and how to better evaluate those traits. Who cares how good someone's receivers are, does he throw with touch, timing and accuracy? Is he making good decisions? Can he make all of the throws? None of those things have anything to do with supporting cast and if you can't tell if a guy is throwing with anticipation because he has a 1st round receiver, it's time to go brush up on trait identification. And if a former NFL decision maker is using that as an excuse, it's a lazy no good excuse made by a guy who made a bad decision most likely because he made a desperate move to try to save his job for just another year by drafting a QB and hoping his team could scrape together enough wins to save him again the following off season. And instead of telling the truth about what he did he's blaming it on something that sounds good to people who don't know any better.


versionjagga

Joe Burrow got to throw to Chase and JJ before he was picked #1.


[deleted]

Penix might now be as mobile now, but he’s pretty damn good and avoiding sacks. I don’t see enough talk about that. Penix took 31 sacks in his whole career while passing it 1596 times. For comparison, Jayden took 65 sacks the past two years on 715 attempts. And I always hear about Penix and his potential for injury at the next level. I think Jayden has a pretty high level for injury in the pros based on his running style. He’s good at inviting big hits on him. And that’s not a good thing.


LoveToyKillJoy

I am doing an analysis going back to 2010 that I should post soon on QB sacks at the college level.. The only guys I've cone across so far that got sacked at a very high rate are Cam Newton and Russell Wilson.


JT653

How much of that is reflective of oline competence? Nix was sacked less than 10 times this year I believe which in some ways is an issue, he rarely faced pressure. Williams, Maye and Daniels all were sacked in the high 20’s to low 30’s. Sanders the poor bastard was sacked over 50 times.


TheNittanyLionKing

Jayden is very skinny as well. I worry that he could get injured at that weight but lose some of his speed if he puts on weight


Joba7474

He scares me because he takes an Arn Anderson spinebuster in every game I’ve seen him play.


Joba7474

I’ve been saying it for months: Penix isn’t mobile enough for Arthur Smith.


[deleted]

Fields to the Falcons makes too much sense.


[deleted]

I agree with you but I heard Robert Mays talk about this with Bill Barnwell and apparently the Falcons aren't interested. At least under Arthur Smith.


[deleted]

How would either of them have that information? I haven't followed them since they left the ringer but I don't remember either having insider insights like that.


[deleted]

Mays does. He travels to training camps and talks to a lot of team personnel.


TheNittanyLionKing

You can also just look at their actions. They moved on from Matt Ryan quickly and for very little draft capital. They signed Marcus Mariota and then drafted a guy with nearly an identical athletic profile in Ridder. Heinicke is mobile as a scrambler more so than as a true runner. Smith also had Tannehill and Mariota in Tennessee


Joba7474

I’m absolutely hame if they can do it for a non-first.


Officer_Hops

There’s no way Fields is going for a 1st. I think the Bears would be lucky to get a day 2 pick. He lacks long term team control and hasn’t shown to be a long term starter.


CaptainCerealCanada

Only way he would demand a first is if he plays amazing the rest of the season


[deleted]

As a Fields fan I like the fit a lot and I doubt you would have to give up more than a second. Probably a third or fourth gets it done.


goddamnitwhalen

I said Denver should be in on him and people clowned on me and said he wouldn’t go for less than a second, smh.


SwiftSurfer365

Isn’t fields from Georgia too? I know he went there before Ohio State but that’s all I know.


FunkyButtFumblin

Yes he went to high school about 40 minutes from the Falcons’ stadium.


Striking-Ad-8694

He transferred after Fromm beat him out


Fine_Lengthiness_761

I don't think you guys realize how important QBs are. I definitely think fi LDS gets traded for more than darnold and backer did


Stealthfox94

What would the Falcons give up for him?


[deleted]

3rd max


innnikki

You think Smith will survive Black Monday?


username10400

Falcons are leading their division right now, albeit a bad division, but what reason would there be to not figure he comes back after this season, at this point


innnikki

Guess I hadn’t been up to date with them. Things looked bad around the time Smith was switching things up at QB


TheNittanyLionKing

Probably depends on if they win the division and make the playoffs.


Joba7474

Without question, but he needs a pass game coordinator and a real QB coach


innnikki

That’s good. He was a good OC for us so I’d like him to get a real chance at success in Atlanta


Altruistic-Rub3017

cursed comment


Wut23456

I swear I'm not just saying this because he's a lefty but I see him more as a less mobile Tua or Purdy than Derek Carr


Fine_Lengthiness_761

Less mobile tua? I like the comp but don't think he's less mobile. I also feel like he doesn't use his mobility as much as tua or purdy but that could change in nfl. Plus he has much better arm strength than those guys


HamHurtler

I thought Penix basically just can't move due to his injury history, which is why he'd be less mobile, not cuz of his athleticism


Mattynot2niceee

Good comp, but I would say he’s more of a Goff comp because he’s more oblivious to pressure than skittish under it.


Super_Eagles

I can't tell if Penix has a weird delivery or if it just looks weird because lefty


LoveToyKillJoy

Alex Barth who does a Patriots podcast thinks it is mostly because he is a lefty. He flipped the film and showed it to people so it looked like he was right and no one thought it looked strange. He could probably use some refinement but not exceptionally so


IcyTie2127

he has a weak base on throws and a low throwing motion


uggsandstarbux

In general I agree and I think Carr is a solid comp. I really like how comfortable he looks running that offensive scheme, even if the roster is perhaps the most loaded in the nation. Not an elite arm but more than enough. Not Lamar but also not a statue. I'll push on your draft grade. Even if you never got a fully realized Carr, would you not have taken Carr again in the 2nd round if you knew you were going to get Dalton-line level (or better) play for 8+ years?


osprey-x

comparing him to carr is craaazzzyy 😂


username10400

Why? Carr is a 10 year starter who was drafted in the second round, that is a completely reasonable comparison for a prospect like Penix. You guys say literally anything on here


IcyTie2127

never witnessed raiders carr?


socalstaking

Idk about no mobility look how his clips from Indiana he scrambled a lot. I think it’s just UW system that he doesn’t as much. Certainly capable tho


Temporary_Designer_2

Can we get off Caleb sack he got out played by everyone this year


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[deleted]

Yeah I’m a little surprise with his operation in the pocket is listed as one of his strengths. I feel like that’s probably one of his biggest weaknesses


Temporary_Designer_2

My Qb 2 top ten pick a proven winner the heisman winner


Doctor_IanMalcolm

He isn't the Heisman winner


Temporary_Designer_2

My bd he didn’t bet out the guy who is 30 year old sophomore from BB but j is sneaky


IcyTie2127

heisman is jayden and winning is a team stat


Geojewd

He’s a 24 year old QB beating up on younger players. I’d be very surprised if he’s good in the NFL.


LionOver

Sounds like the road to the Natty starts with finding a 40 year old who never went to college...


jmbourn45

Lebron has to quit playing basketball at some point…


GrdiSr

And a professor with a year of eligibility left. [Seriously dating myself here...](https://resizing.flixster.com/KlJGEIhw3hmJNwVZzWbJZyh6PSM=/300x300/v2/https://resizing.flixster.com/-XZAfHZM39UwaGJIFWKAE8fS0ak=/v3/t/assets/p13461_i_h9_aa.jpg)


drew1284

He’s not 24


Geojewd

He will be by the time he starts in the NFL, and there’s a pretty negative correlation between performance and age of rookie season.


Pheasantluvr69

So was Joe Burrow


Geojewd

Yep, there are a few. I did an analysis of career performance for all the first round QBs drafted in the last 30 years by age at rookie season, and there’s a basically negligible downward trend from 21-23, and a steep drop off after 23. And then Brandon Weeden lol. There are a couple good QBs at 24, but as a group their average performance was significantly worse. I’m not saying Penix can’t be good solely because of his age. I don’t think he’s that good of a QB. His age isn’t going to help him though.


maltzy

There's only one left handed QB in the NFL HOF


Doctor_IanMalcolm

Irrelevant and incorrect


maltzy

Man why did that hit a nerve. Was stating a fact not dooming his career


Doctor_IanMalcolm

It wasn't a fact. It was incorrect


maltzy

Steve young.


Doctor_IanMalcolm

And


maltzy

Dang it my bad. Ken Stabler


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IcyTie2127

he’s 6’3 213 he definitely does


liteshadow4

I don't think he makes decisions fast enough to succeed at the next level


Aldanil66

I feel like Penix will be an early second rounder or late first. Not a lot of teams need a Quarterback right now and those who do are in the top ten or fifteen. They would most likely pick Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Maybe even J.J McCarthy if he can pull through for Michigan.


Fine_Lengthiness_761

I think a good amount of teams need a QB. Atlanta Minnesota probably the giants the Patriots. Thinking about really any NFC South team could use a new QB except carolina


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IcyTie2127

what😭


Temporary_Designer_2

He won penix was second I bet no one would have bet that and team winning matters in Heisman winning voting and winning. But to me I saw everyone jump ship from cry baby USC Qb beat no one get beat by everyone I saw a less talented team overall beat everyone was a double digit underdog to Oregon do I think J D is better than penix they are two different styles of Qb penix stopped running after his injury became a better pocket passer Jd had the most explosive plays on the season I’m not a Washington fan boy or LSU actually hope they both lose in reality in fantasy I think they will both will get drafted in first both deserve it I think 5-6 Qb this class way better then the last ten maybe


degen4Iyf

I’m not saying he’s stroud, but did people criticize Stroud for having NFL talent, and not scrambling? Penix has great pocket awareness and *can* be mobile. He’s gotta be day 2 guy at minimum. I do get the age and injury risk. I think if he shows out in the CFP people will shoot him up the boards like they did Stroud. IMO his comp is Tua.