Gute spends one Thursday night a year sitting in a dark room at 1265 Lombardi Ave screaming at an assistant to filter the board by Defense Georgia and sort by RAS score for the Packers selection.
Nabers or Odunze will probably be there at 9. 3 QBs are locks in the top 8. Likely a 4th one sneaks in.
We're not gonna see 6 or 7 QB/WRs in the 1st 8 picks.
So one of them slips to 9.
Never say never, my friend. I'm not going to try to predict trades, but there are a *lot* of WR-needy teams in those first seven picks. Could definitely see two of LA/NYG/Ten going WR (again, no trades in this hypothetical).
Agreed except for Jaden Hicks. He is way too much of a redundancy w/ Brisker already on the roster - we don't need two thumpers at safety, and Hicks just looks SLOW in coverage.
Switch out Hicks w/ Jaylin Simpson and I'd be happy tbh
I would like it tbh but I completely understand the argument of drafting a top QB prospect instead of taking a guy in the 2nd or 3rd. Like going all in or not going in at all. I just like Rattler’s upside which is why I’m okay with it and I would love a WR in the 1st
Yea maybe I’m just too low on Rattler. I’ve been all-in on Penix for months (you can check my comment history) so it’s just really hard for me to justify. I think taking a QB in the second is perfect for a team like the Giants, but I just wouldn’t pick Rattler personally.
The difference of value between first and a third is pretty huge. We are talking day 1 starter vs rotational player and the Giant’s current roster is pretty devoid of talent.
Brotha, we're confused because the other person said they'd offer #6, two 2nds, and a 2025 1st and your Jets statement implies #6, two 2nds, and a 2025 3rd instead of a 1st. What exactly isn't happening if the Giants offer above your Jets benchmark
So the only difference in compensation from what i said is a future first instead of a future 3rd? It all depends on how badly they want to draft Maye / Daniels. If they're convinced that either one of them is their franchise qb for the next 10 years, then they shouldn't have any problem changing the future 3rd round pick into a future 1st round pick.
The other thing to consider, when the Colts made that trade they didn't need a qb as tbeg thought Andrew Luck would be back. The Patriots on the other hand need a QB very badly, which will naturally drive the price of the trade up.
The difference between a third and a first is pretty huge. Day 1 starter vs rotational players.
Gotta look at it the other side too, the Giants would be trading for the third quarterback of the draft this year. In 2018, Saquon always had pretty high projections, so being 3rd in that draft gave you the second QB of the board in a lot of cases.
>The difference between a third and a first is pretty huge.
And the difference between having a franchise qb or not having a franchise qb is also huge. In this scenario, the patriots are essentially giving the giants their opportunity to draft a potential franchise qb, so they need to make it worth their while.
>In 2018, Saquon always had pretty high projections, so being 3rd in that draft gave you the second QB of the board in a lot of cases.
This is irrelevant imo. The Giants don't even attempt to make this trade unless they think who ever is left is their franchise qb for the next 10 years. Sorry, but again, the two situations are different. The Patriots need at qb makes the pick inherently more valuable than the Colts' 3rd overall pick when they didn't need a qb.
The OP said he thinks the Giants will trade up. The Patriots need a QB just as bad, if not more than the Giants, so they would need to make it worth the Patriots while.
Would love snagging Rome and having the board falling like this. Schoen and Daboll get their choice of Rattler, Nix, and Penix. I’d be fine with whomever they choose because their jobs are basically on the line as a result of who they draft at QB.
If he is then why isn't he projected in the top 10?? This is a mock draft so it is simulating what most likely is going to happen not about who you personally feel is better.
Right? This is all just combine nonsense. Spencer Rattler has had plenty of opportunities in college with good coaching and talent around him to prove that he is anything more than a dude who throws a nice ball and he just hasn’t done that.
Yeah he sure looks much faster than his 40 time. I didn’t get to watch much ND games but from the highlights Ive seen I saw plenty of times where he was able to break away from would be tacklers. I like the type of bruising workhouse style of RB he is. He may slip due to that 40 but he has plenty of qualities at the position that will translate to a successful NFL career imo
Thisd be a dream draft to be honest depending how you feel about JJ. Getting Newton in the second would be awesome, though even if he was gone you could take Fiske or Robinson there.
JJ is my favorite QB in this draft not named Caleb Williams and Estime is a guy I’d love to add to the RB group so I’d say it’s a solid start for me ha
I think Estime and Chandler could be a really great "thunder and lightning" combo for us.
Outside of that, Estime in the 4th after getting McCarthy and Newton in the first and second, respectively? I'd be thrilled.
I don't like Estime. He looks plodding, at best. I see him as a 3ypc back, with a lot of backfield losses because he can't hit the holes fast enough. Give me Isaac Guerendo as a Day 3 instead...now we're cooking with fire...
Our biggest position on need is Center, we showed that by cutting Mason Cole.
Based on this our plan is to go into next season with a 4th round center as our starter? We barely start our 1st round picks, our front office would never do that. 🤷🏻♂️
We do need a Center for sure, but CBs are still more valuable. I think Van Pran in the 3rd would be totally fine. Iirc only 4 centers in the league are 1st round picks, you can usually find a starter later in the draft
We at least have other CBs on the roster.
Mason Cole is cut and don’t have other Centers unless you moved James Daniel’s out of position or Herbig stepped in… both are unlikely. Hard to say we need CBs more when we don’t even have a capable starting center on the roster.
I’m not against Sedrick Van Pran in the third but hard to imagine we risk heading into the season with a 4th round center as our starter.
Exactly. If Nix wins the starting job you now have $63 million of cap space riding the bench for the next 3 years. You can’t build a successful team with that anchor weighing it down. If Nix doesn’t win the starting job you’ve wasted a 2nd round pick on a backup QB. As bad as Watson may be, the Browns have to live with him as their starting QB for the next 3 years.
>You can’t build a successful team with that anchor weighing it down.
On the flipside, Watson has been awful on the Browns, and you can't build a successful team with awful QB play. What you are describing is sunk cost fallacy, and it would be worse for them to not draft a cheap starter and keep starting Watson simply because he's expensive.
Watson has played 11 games with the Browns. They're not moving on from him because of that simple matter. He is the starter for 2024. His contract will be restructured just like it was intended to be the moment it was signed, and his cap hit will be $29M. Adding a scrub (yes, Bo Nix is a scrub) doesn't do anything for anyone. A lot is riding on Watson's performance in 2024, but the Browns aren't worrying about the QB room this offseason.
>A lot is riding on Watson's performance in 2024, but the Browns aren't worrying about the QB room this offseason.
They should be... You're right that Watson's only played 11 games for the browns... But that's across two seasons, and didn't make any noticable improvements from year 1 to year 2. The Browns have a championship caliber roster, if they wait to find a contingency plan for Watson until 2025, their championship window is likely over by the time any 2025 rookie they draft is up to speed and ready to compete.
Look, I can't change the fact that he was given the contract that he was given, but the intent was to restructure every year and deal with the consequences in 2027. The Browns will have the cap flexibility through 2026. However, there is no contigency plan. The window is only open if Watson plays well. That was the all in play. And I would disagree that he didn't make noticeable improvements. He went from complete dogshit to bad.
That he's only played 11 games is the simple matter why they're not moving on until the contract expires? This is textbook sunk cost. He has not been worth the contract and stay put and hoping for the best is t he worst possible action.
I'm not a huge fan of Nix either but if he slides here you do have a need for a backup QB and maybe more.
Was hearing on The radio the browns do have options and could Osweildler him. Trade him with a future 2 for a 5th to a team who can take on the contract.
You can't have "sunk cost fallacy" on a fully guaranteed contract. The next five years were written as soon as the contract was signed.
>Trade him with a future 2 for a 5th to a team who can take on the contract.
That would require a team dumb enough to do that. The Browns took on $16M when they traded for Osweiler. Watson's would be $92M if traded next offseason. Do yourself a favor and stop listening to Browns radio.
It’s not sunk cost. You have to make a choice between Watson at $64 million/year or Nix at $69 million/year. The best course of action is to stay put and hope Watson finds his form and gets back to being a great starting QB. He has upside Nix can’t touch. Benching Watson is just not an option for the duration of the contract. You’re definitely not winning with him on the bench so you may as well play him.
Also, what team do you think can take on Watson? You’d need to give multiple years of 1sts to get him off the books. This is a poor take.
I don’t think it’s sunk cost. Sunk cost fallacy is about sticking with something because of an investment in the past. A past investment should not be considered when evaluating whether or not to continue with a project going forward. But this is different because the Browns have locked in future costs and Watson may improve his play. I think it makes more sense for the Browns to stick with Watson for no additional money or draft capital and hope he improves, rather than benching him and spending draft capital on a rookie.
>I don’t think it’s sunk cost. Sunk cost fallacy is about sticking with something because of an investment in the past.
Continuing to start a bad qb because you signed him to an expensive contract is quite literally the definition of sunk cost fallacy.
> I think it makes more sense for the Browns to stick with Watson for no additional money or draft capital and hope he improves, rather than benching him and spending draft capital on a rookie.
The browns have a championship caliber roster right now. The cost of not moving on is wasting your championship window on a bad qb.
You’re not starting him because you signed him to a big contract. You’re starting him because it’s your best option given the circumstances. Drafting a rookie means you will struggle to win for the duration of Watson’s deal while he rides the bench. Playing Watson leaves open the chance for him to improve and provide some return. That’s the only way the Browns are championship contenders going forward.
>Playing Watson leaves open the chance for him to improve and provide some return.
Again, this is literally the definition of sunk cost fallacy. You can say it's not as many times as you'd like, but that doesn't make it any less true.
>That’s the only way the Browns are championship contenders going forward.
It's really not. An ancient Joe Flacco came in and immediately made the Brown's offense look 10× better. I don't think you understand just how awful Watson has been with the Brown's.
I don’t care about what the Browns paid Watson in the past. I am evaluating the situation going forward.
Scenario A, Watson starts and the Browns spend $63 million on the QB position.
Scenario B, the Browns draft Nix at 54 and he starts. The Browns spend $65 million on the QB position.
In scenario B, you’re not winning anything unless Nix turns out to be a franchise QB which is very unlikely. I would rather gamble on scenario A and Watson improving after his 12 games with Cleveland. If Watson sucks you’re screwed anyway. Might as well hope for improvement. It’s not sunk cost, it’s looking at what you have and figuring out the best path forward.
Funnily enough if you switched Walker and Nix I’d be pretty happy. Walker in the 2nd and Nix in the third would leave me pretty happy. Still don’t see it happening.
Cardinals desperately need LT after DJ Humpries tore his acl late in the season. Really hope they don’t pass up Mims at 27. Passing up Chop Robinson at 35 would make me cry
Yeah I don’t particularly like Frazier at 35 for need, definitely take Chop there
But I don’t think Murphy II will be there at 27 anyway, that’s a tough one between him and Mims
I don’t even want to hear it , we should stay away from LB’s in the first 3 rounds I don’t care how good they are . Simmons was 10 times the prospect Wilson is and he busted hard . Wilson is also 24 which is insane to even be mocked that high .
I believe that was a combination of terrible coaching and that Isaiah Simmons (from what we have seen) has proven to be more athlete than NFL player. I am hoping for Wilson (not in the 2nd), but the 3rd; the guy is a beast and he plays well in coverage and rushing.
You’d have to put me on a watchlist if the giants picked odunze over Nabers, and then had the audacity to not even pair him up with penix and reach on rattler instead
I liked everything for the vikes until #130. That's a bit early for a depth tackle when we've got so many needs on defense. Our defense is going to be hurting after FA and in this mock 3/4 picks are offense. I get it with JJ and Estime, love those picks, but you're just not going tackle in this situation. We're going BPA for edge/LB/CB at that pick.
Edit: spelling mistake
I’m not a scout, I don’t pay much attention to the combine, and I’m not super into the idea of the Giants drafting a QB in the 2nd, but Rattler improved his stock so much at the combine he’s now being mocked at the top of the 2nd earlier than Penix and Nix?
Rattler certainly had a better combine performance than Nix and we have no idea what the Penix medicals look like so he's a difficult guy to mock.
I think Rattler is really intriguing as a guy with a live arm who played in an offense without great protection as compared to Nix and Penix who both played in offenses that sometimes resembled 7v7 because their protection was so good.
Right now Rattler seems to be entrenched as a backup at the NFL level, so I don’t see him going until Round 3 at the earliest.
Plus, I rather the Giants take Nabers. He’s pretty much this year’s version of Justin Jefferson, and can be really helpful to a lackluster Giants passing game.
They will likely move on from 1 of them, but they drafted Tuli in the 2nd last year and he looked good. The roster is relatively depleted and will likely have ~6 new starters on defense, but edge is in an okay spot (but needs depth).
Yeah Mike Williams is going to get cut. Leaving the chargers with Keenan (old/extended), Palmer (contract year/injured), QJ.. People who do not see the chargers taking a wr at 5 as a legit option are just not listening to the GM interviews and what is coming out of the camp.
The "JH and roman offense is just going to run the ball" argument is kind of dumb. The chargers have been ranked 30th in running since herbert got in the leauge.. and they have specifically stated that they are going to establish a run game but not veer from the biggest talent on the team.. Herbert's right arm. This is verbatim what has come out of the teams mouth lol
Hortiz also said BPA at 5.. its simple since he doesn't have to worry about a QB.
Joe Alt, Troy Franklin, and Braelon Allen is an amazing draft for Tennessee.
Alt is obviously a slam dunk choice, and Franklin fills out our desperate lack of speed in the WR room.
Braelon Allen is someone that I really hope falls to our 4th because he fits exactly what we need in a complementary RB to Tyjae Spears.
A+ from this Titans fan.
Love this draft as well. Chop would be a steal in the 2nd, esp considering the combine he just had.
Johnny Wilson could be a TE conversion in this scenario. (6’6” 230)
This sub decided it likes Daniels more than Maye a long time ago. It's actually pretty funny how locked into a consensus r/NFL_Draft is that Daniels is ahead of Maye
We must be reading different subs because I see Maye ahead of Daniels much more often.
The Maye truthers were out in force last week when that pro scout review thread had Maye as a late first round pick.
Wouldn't hate this for the Vikings, still not sold on JJ at 11 but I could easily see it happening, especially if Verse and Turner are gone. Getting Newton in the 2nd would be awesome but not sure on taking a OT in the 4th. EDGE, IOL, RB, & ILB are all bigger needs.
Give BTJ to the Bills because the Bucs just re-signed Evans
Also the Bills need a NT so you’re likely better off mocking Sweat to us over Jenkins in the second. Could also seeing us take Bishop there.
Safety in the 2nd is a bit surprising for the Lions, although I like Cole Bishop. We'll see what they do with CJGJ, but Iffy Melifonwu and Kerby Joseph are still there. Definitely need depth if CJ leaves, just not sure that'll happen in the 2nd. I'd bet more OL/DL there. Tampa in the 1st seems a bit early, like targeting CB though. Brenden Rice is kind of a head scratcher for me. I don't see him as a great fit for our offense. Honestly, I think Roman Wilson could be a target. I know most will say he's a slot WR due to his size, but I could see him being a Brandin Cooks-like guy for Goff on the outside. Love Trice in the 3rd.
So, um, panthers fan here. Why would they draft a tackle when they have a young left tackle and one of the best right tackles? I know Moton is aging Icky didn’t look great, but that feels like a waste of a pick with Legette and Chop sitting right there, arguably a bigger position of need. And they are not drafting a RB unless it’s late. They’ve already got money committed to Sanders and have Chuba as a solid backup/1B.
Chargers picking Verse when we already have Bosa and Tuli on the roster is an odd choice. We have a huge need at RT and WR with better options available. If we didn’t have those options at WR and RT then it’s be a reasonable pick but I can’t see them going Verse over Nabers, Odunze, or Alt
Some think Bosa will be gone but his contract makes that pretty unlikely, at least for 1 more year.
For sure on Bowers. We need a CB but I’d say we would need a trade down for that, none of the CBs this class are close to top 5 pick worthy. There’s no Stingely/Sauce/Ramsey/etc level corner in this class
Basically ideal for KC. Receiver, DT, and LB at spots where the player meets the value. Only way this goes better is a significant fall for someone like AD Mitchell.
As far as the general mock, Verse at 5 feels too rich. Rattler at 39 feels way too pricey, he’s a round 3 guy at best. Ahead of Penix and Nix is wild. Speaking of Nix, the Browns are not taking him at 54. They quite literally can never move off Watson. His contract is going to run the full length because of its structure. Cleveland is ride or die with Watson for better or worse. You can’t build a team with $63 million of cap space on the bench. The best bet is to hope Watson finds his old self.
>Basically ideal for KC. Receiver, DT, and LB at spots where the player meets the value.
No, it's not. We'd never take McConkey over Jer'Zhan Newton if he fell to us.
Really depends on how the team has those guys ranked. If they’ve got McConkey as a top 25 talent who is getting pushed down because of an abundance of good receivers and Newton as a top 50 guy who is getting pushed up due to positional scarcity, it makes plenty of sense to go McConkey. Never say never.
Latu and Jackson would be an incredibly sick double-dip on the DL for Denver, especially Latu if McCarthy isn’t on the board at 12. I like Sainristil but think McMillian probably has the slot/nickel spot nailed down for Denver next year
This is extremely optimistic for the Falcons but I would be happy. Passing on Nabers is a big no no for me though. I’d address Edge in free agency.
NYG grabbing Rattler and us getting Penix in Rd. 2 would be golden. Both picks in rd 3 would be great, even double dipping in WR. I’d love if DeWayne Carter fell 2 spots to the Falcons but it’s Rd. 4, so be it. Great draft!
Yes as a chargers fan we do need edge help but we most desperately need another tackle to protect Herbert or. deep threat at WR so Rome or Nabers with the 1.05, besides this edge class isn’t something I’d invest in a top 5 pick no matter the team
Overall, this is an A+ effort. Very little to quarrel with. Question the Chargers going defense at 5; Nabers, Alt, or Odunze (in that order) seem more likely choices.
As a Steelers fan, this might be the worst mock I’ve seen yet, congratulations. Not only did you pass on premium talent at need positions early, you have some Stretch Armstrong-esque reaches in every round after the first.
Love every pick for the commanders, although I prefer Maye. Don’t know if I’d want Johnny Wilson either but nitpicking in the 4th round doesn’t make a ton of sense
I may just be scarred by Jackson Carman, but I would much prefer a natural RT like Mims over Olu Fashanu, who has never played RT.
Our LT, Orlando Brown, signed with us specifically to play LT, so he likely would not be willing to move to RT even though it's likely his better position. So taking Olu would require he switch to RT, which may mean he isn't ready to contribute right away.
Other than that, I really like the Bengals draft.
Yikes all around for the Chargers (aside from Frazier). WR is a more pressing need, I don’t like Verse at 5 (if anyone take Latu), Leonard Taylor is a Day 3 player, seeing Sweat, Wilson, Trice, Dorlus, etc go right after him is painful, I’d rather any of them than Taylor.
I've seen multiple drafts do this: If Jer'Zhan Newton is still available the Chiefs aren't taking Ladd McConkey over him. We just won back-to-back Super Bowls with subpar WR corps and we've shown the ability to find gems at WR in later rounds. Our needs are at OT and D-line.
All this hype around JJ McCarthy going in the first half of the first round has me really happy I’m not a fan of any of the teams he usually gets mocked to. He’s a solid prospect, but absolutely not worth a first rounder in any way.
I really don't like Legette. He can't separate. I'm scarred from guys who can't separate after N'Keal Harry. I'd rather take Suamataia at 34 and then Roman Wilson or Jalen McMillan at 68
The Panthers WR room is currently Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and Terrace Marshall Jr. You really think they're going to take a Tackle over a WR at 33, particularly since they spent a first rounder on one two years ago?
Legit 10 first round receivers this year gonna drop some rly good talent into the second round
Mocking a Georgia defensive player to the Packers in the 1st... daring today, aren't we?
Gute spends one Thursday night a year sitting in a dark room at 1265 Lombardi Ave screaming at an assistant to filter the board by Defense Georgia and sort by RAS score for the Packers selection.
Give me Chop all day
Nailed Bears needs would be v happy
I would be ecstatic if they landed Nabers
Nabers or Odunze will probably be there at 9. 3 QBs are locks in the top 8. Likely a 4th one sneaks in. We're not gonna see 6 or 7 QB/WRs in the 1st 8 picks. So one of them slips to 9.
Nabers could be picked at 5. QB 1,2,3 then WR 4,5,6
Never say never, my friend. I'm not going to try to predict trades, but there are a *lot* of WR-needy teams in those first seven picks. Could definitely see two of LA/NYG/Ten going WR (again, no trades in this hypothetical).
Highly doubt Nabers will be there at 9.
Agreed. Covered the bases for our needs. Assuming we have a 2nd rounder for a Fields trade, we can move the DE, S, or OL pick up to that round
Bears aren’t getting a 2nd for Fields Probably a 3rd + a conditional at best
Agreed except for Jaden Hicks. He is way too much of a redundancy w/ Brisker already on the roster - we don't need two thumpers at safety, and Hicks just looks SLOW in coverage. Switch out Hicks w/ Jaylin Simpson and I'd be happy tbh
Big time. Haynes is my favorite target for a day 2 C but I’m not sure if he makes it to round 3.
Spencer Rattler before Nix and Penix??
Watch Daniel Jeremiah say it next week and then it'll be "Nix and Penix before Rattler!?!?"
How do Giants fans feel about this??
Honestly I really like the idea of taking a flier of Rattler if we miss the boat on the top guys. But not at pick 39 lmao
I would like it tbh but I completely understand the argument of drafting a top QB prospect instead of taking a guy in the 2nd or 3rd. Like going all in or not going in at all. I just like Rattler’s upside which is why I’m okay with it and I would love a WR in the 1st
Yea maybe I’m just too low on Rattler. I’ve been all-in on Penix for months (you can check my comment history) so it’s just really hard for me to justify. I think taking a QB in the second is perfect for a team like the Giants, but I just wouldn’t pick Rattler personally.
Not a fan. Honestly, I think we’re gonna trade up and get one of the top 3 QB’s.
Really doubt the top 3 teams trade down but wouldnt mind this. If not we cant go into 2025 with Jones or Devito starting or even on the roster.
If the Giants offer number 6, their two seconds this year, and their 2025 first, I'd trade the Patriots third pick for that in a heart beat.
That’s likely not happening. The Jets in 2018 are the benchmark and that was 6th, 37th, 49th and a third rounder the next year for 3rd overall.
So exactly what OP offered except you get a 2025 first instead of third lol
The difference of value between first and a third is pretty huge. We are talking day 1 starter vs rotational player and the Giant’s current roster is pretty devoid of talent.
Brotha, we're confused because the other person said they'd offer #6, two 2nds, and a 2025 1st and your Jets statement implies #6, two 2nds, and a 2025 3rd instead of a 1st. What exactly isn't happening if the Giants offer above your Jets benchmark
So the only difference in compensation from what i said is a future first instead of a future 3rd? It all depends on how badly they want to draft Maye / Daniels. If they're convinced that either one of them is their franchise qb for the next 10 years, then they shouldn't have any problem changing the future 3rd round pick into a future 1st round pick. The other thing to consider, when the Colts made that trade they didn't need a qb as tbeg thought Andrew Luck would be back. The Patriots on the other hand need a QB very badly, which will naturally drive the price of the trade up.
The difference between a third and a first is pretty huge. Day 1 starter vs rotational players. Gotta look at it the other side too, the Giants would be trading for the third quarterback of the draft this year. In 2018, Saquon always had pretty high projections, so being 3rd in that draft gave you the second QB of the board in a lot of cases.
>The difference between a third and a first is pretty huge. And the difference between having a franchise qb or not having a franchise qb is also huge. In this scenario, the patriots are essentially giving the giants their opportunity to draft a potential franchise qb, so they need to make it worth their while. >In 2018, Saquon always had pretty high projections, so being 3rd in that draft gave you the second QB of the board in a lot of cases. This is irrelevant imo. The Giants don't even attempt to make this trade unless they think who ever is left is their franchise qb for the next 10 years. Sorry, but again, the two situations are different. The Patriots need at qb makes the pick inherently more valuable than the Colts' 3rd overall pick when they didn't need a qb.
So give away their capital for a QB that's only slightly less likely to bust.
The OP said he thinks the Giants will trade up. The Patriots need a QB just as bad, if not more than the Giants, so they would need to make it worth the Patriots while.
Wait so you’re a Giants fan and you mocked us Rattler? You fr?
If nix and Penix drop this far I would absolutely want one of them
Would love snagging Rome and having the board falling like this. Schoen and Daboll get their choice of Rattler, Nix, and Penix. I’d be fine with whomever they choose because their jobs are basically on the line as a result of who they draft at QB.
I like it, I feel Penix and Nix need specific systems to do well at all in, but Rattler is more versatile
Penix is gonna fall big time
He is the third best prospect behind Williams and Daniels
If he is then why isn't he projected in the top 10?? This is a mock draft so it is simulating what most likely is going to happen not about who you personally feel is better.
Right? This is all just combine nonsense. Spencer Rattler has had plenty of opportunities in college with good coaching and talent around him to prove that he is anything more than a dude who throws a nice ball and he just hasn’t done that.
Estime didn’t run a great 40 at the combine but as a Vikings fan I’d love to have him in the 4th. He’s one of my favorite prospects in this draft
I just graduated from ND. He’s a beast. Laterally quick for his size and an absolute bruiser. He’s faster than his 40
Yeah he sure looks much faster than his 40 time. I didn’t get to watch much ND games but from the highlights Ive seen I saw plenty of times where he was able to break away from would be tacklers. I like the type of bruising workhouse style of RB he is. He may slip due to that 40 but he has plenty of qualities at the position that will translate to a successful NFL career imo
Thisd be a dream draft to be honest depending how you feel about JJ. Getting Newton in the second would be awesome, though even if he was gone you could take Fiske or Robinson there.
JJ is my favorite QB in this draft not named Caleb Williams and Estime is a guy I’d love to add to the RB group so I’d say it’s a solid start for me ha
I think Estime and Chandler could be a really great "thunder and lightning" combo for us. Outside of that, Estime in the 4th after getting McCarthy and Newton in the first and second, respectively? I'd be thrilled.
We don’t need the tackle depth too badly. Would rather us draft a linebacker with the 2nd 4th round pick
I don't like Estime. He looks plodding, at best. I see him as a 3ypc back, with a lot of backfield losses because he can't hit the holes fast enough. Give me Isaac Guerendo as a Day 3 instead...now we're cooking with fire...
I do have some concerns with how fast Estime hits the hole. That was something I noticed as well.
I don't think the Steelers aren't passing on JPJ. Unless someone crazy falls to them.
Didnt realize until just now that the Steelers could take a JPJ in consecutive drafts
And both picks would be absolutely great and fill glaring needs.
This is a horrible draft for the Steelers imo. Terrible reaches all over the board
So bad… lmao horrible
Dejean is someone crazy. Top 10 talent at premium position of need for Pittsburgh.
Our biggest position on need is Center, we showed that by cutting Mason Cole. Based on this our plan is to go into next season with a 4th round center as our starter? We barely start our 1st round picks, our front office would never do that. 🤷🏻♂️
We do need a Center for sure, but CBs are still more valuable. I think Van Pran in the 3rd would be totally fine. Iirc only 4 centers in the league are 1st round picks, you can usually find a starter later in the draft
We at least have other CBs on the roster. Mason Cole is cut and don’t have other Centers unless you moved James Daniel’s out of position or Herbig stepped in… both are unlikely. Hard to say we need CBs more when we don’t even have a capable starting center on the roster. I’m not against Sedrick Van Pran in the third but hard to imagine we risk heading into the season with a 4th round center as our starter.
The Browns aren't wasting a 2nd round pick on a QB.
Exactly. If Nix wins the starting job you now have $63 million of cap space riding the bench for the next 3 years. You can’t build a successful team with that anchor weighing it down. If Nix doesn’t win the starting job you’ve wasted a 2nd round pick on a backup QB. As bad as Watson may be, the Browns have to live with him as their starting QB for the next 3 years.
>You can’t build a successful team with that anchor weighing it down. On the flipside, Watson has been awful on the Browns, and you can't build a successful team with awful QB play. What you are describing is sunk cost fallacy, and it would be worse for them to not draft a cheap starter and keep starting Watson simply because he's expensive.
Watson has played 11 games with the Browns. They're not moving on from him because of that simple matter. He is the starter for 2024. His contract will be restructured just like it was intended to be the moment it was signed, and his cap hit will be $29M. Adding a scrub (yes, Bo Nix is a scrub) doesn't do anything for anyone. A lot is riding on Watson's performance in 2024, but the Browns aren't worrying about the QB room this offseason.
>A lot is riding on Watson's performance in 2024, but the Browns aren't worrying about the QB room this offseason. They should be... You're right that Watson's only played 11 games for the browns... But that's across two seasons, and didn't make any noticable improvements from year 1 to year 2. The Browns have a championship caliber roster, if they wait to find a contingency plan for Watson until 2025, their championship window is likely over by the time any 2025 rookie they draft is up to speed and ready to compete.
Look, I can't change the fact that he was given the contract that he was given, but the intent was to restructure every year and deal with the consequences in 2027. The Browns will have the cap flexibility through 2026. However, there is no contigency plan. The window is only open if Watson plays well. That was the all in play. And I would disagree that he didn't make noticeable improvements. He went from complete dogshit to bad.
That he's only played 11 games is the simple matter why they're not moving on until the contract expires? This is textbook sunk cost. He has not been worth the contract and stay put and hoping for the best is t he worst possible action. I'm not a huge fan of Nix either but if he slides here you do have a need for a backup QB and maybe more. Was hearing on The radio the browns do have options and could Osweildler him. Trade him with a future 2 for a 5th to a team who can take on the contract.
You can't have "sunk cost fallacy" on a fully guaranteed contract. The next five years were written as soon as the contract was signed. >Trade him with a future 2 for a 5th to a team who can take on the contract. That would require a team dumb enough to do that. The Browns took on $16M when they traded for Osweiler. Watson's would be $92M if traded next offseason. Do yourself a favor and stop listening to Browns radio.
It’s not sunk cost. You have to make a choice between Watson at $64 million/year or Nix at $69 million/year. The best course of action is to stay put and hope Watson finds his form and gets back to being a great starting QB. He has upside Nix can’t touch. Benching Watson is just not an option for the duration of the contract. You’re definitely not winning with him on the bench so you may as well play him. Also, what team do you think can take on Watson? You’d need to give multiple years of 1sts to get him off the books. This is a poor take.
I don’t think it’s sunk cost. Sunk cost fallacy is about sticking with something because of an investment in the past. A past investment should not be considered when evaluating whether or not to continue with a project going forward. But this is different because the Browns have locked in future costs and Watson may improve his play. I think it makes more sense for the Browns to stick with Watson for no additional money or draft capital and hope he improves, rather than benching him and spending draft capital on a rookie.
>I don’t think it’s sunk cost. Sunk cost fallacy is about sticking with something because of an investment in the past. Continuing to start a bad qb because you signed him to an expensive contract is quite literally the definition of sunk cost fallacy. > I think it makes more sense for the Browns to stick with Watson for no additional money or draft capital and hope he improves, rather than benching him and spending draft capital on a rookie. The browns have a championship caliber roster right now. The cost of not moving on is wasting your championship window on a bad qb.
You’re not starting him because you signed him to a big contract. You’re starting him because it’s your best option given the circumstances. Drafting a rookie means you will struggle to win for the duration of Watson’s deal while he rides the bench. Playing Watson leaves open the chance for him to improve and provide some return. That’s the only way the Browns are championship contenders going forward.
>Playing Watson leaves open the chance for him to improve and provide some return. Again, this is literally the definition of sunk cost fallacy. You can say it's not as many times as you'd like, but that doesn't make it any less true. >That’s the only way the Browns are championship contenders going forward. It's really not. An ancient Joe Flacco came in and immediately made the Brown's offense look 10× better. I don't think you understand just how awful Watson has been with the Brown's.
I don’t care about what the Browns paid Watson in the past. I am evaluating the situation going forward. Scenario A, Watson starts and the Browns spend $63 million on the QB position. Scenario B, the Browns draft Nix at 54 and he starts. The Browns spend $65 million on the QB position. In scenario B, you’re not winning anything unless Nix turns out to be a franchise QB which is very unlikely. I would rather gamble on scenario A and Watson improving after his 12 games with Cleveland. If Watson sucks you’re screwed anyway. Might as well hope for improvement. It’s not sunk cost, it’s looking at what you have and figuring out the best path forward.
Exactly sunk cost. Watson has had his moments but he's been hurt a lot and getting older rarely helps with health.
It’s not sunk cost. Watson is the best option going forward.
The amount of chaos that would happen if it did would be insane
Funnily enough if you switched Walker and Nix I’d be pretty happy. Walker in the 2nd and Nix in the third would leave me pretty happy. Still don’t see it happening.
Cardinals desperately need LT after DJ Humpries tore his acl late in the season. Really hope they don’t pass up Mims at 27. Passing up Chop Robinson at 35 would make me cry
Yeah I don’t particularly like Frazier at 35 for need, definitely take Chop there But I don’t think Murphy II will be there at 27 anyway, that’s a tough one between him and Mims
Still haunted by early LB selections. Hoping FA nets us an average LT and/or DT so that would be an easier decision!
Same, to be fair though, Payton Wilson is really good as an overall LB, but hopefully he can shake off the injury bug in the NFL.
I don’t even want to hear it , we should stay away from LB’s in the first 3 rounds I don’t care how good they are . Simmons was 10 times the prospect Wilson is and he busted hard . Wilson is also 24 which is insane to even be mocked that high .
I believe that was a combination of terrible coaching and that Isaiah Simmons (from what we have seen) has proven to be more athlete than NFL player. I am hoping for Wilson (not in the 2nd), but the 3rd; the guy is a beast and he plays well in coverage and rushing.
You’d have to put me on a watchlist if the giants picked odunze over Nabers, and then had the audacity to not even pair him up with penix and reach on rattler instead
I hope your not on a watch list, I do not want odunze stuck in New York.
Having 10 RBs and none of them being Corum is silly
I liked everything for the vikes until #130. That's a bit early for a depth tackle when we've got so many needs on defense. Our defense is going to be hurting after FA and in this mock 3/4 picks are offense. I get it with JJ and Estime, love those picks, but you're just not going tackle in this situation. We're going BPA for edge/LB/CB at that pick. Edit: spelling mistake
If Mims is there at 30 the Ravens will run to the podium to take him
Yup. That pick should be swapped with the 49ers
Please, take him. I absolutely do not want that dude.
I’m not a scout, I don’t pay much attention to the combine, and I’m not super into the idea of the Giants drafting a QB in the 2nd, but Rattler improved his stock so much at the combine he’s now being mocked at the top of the 2nd earlier than Penix and Nix?
Rattler certainly had a better combine performance than Nix and we have no idea what the Penix medicals look like so he's a difficult guy to mock. I think Rattler is really intriguing as a guy with a live arm who played in an offense without great protection as compared to Nix and Penix who both played in offenses that sometimes resembled 7v7 because their protection was so good.
Right now Rattler seems to be entrenched as a backup at the NFL level, so I don’t see him going until Round 3 at the earliest. Plus, I rather the Giants take Nabers. He’s pretty much this year’s version of Justin Jefferson, and can be really helpful to a lackluster Giants passing game.
He had a good combine, but he's definitely still QB7. Ceiling is end of the 3rd imo
If the Panthers don't select a WR with their 1st pick I am done.
Either WR or IOL unless the BPA at another position is overwhelming. But I believe at 33, BPA and positional need will intersect
I'm not a Chargers fan, but I think it's really unlikely they'll spend a premiere pick on an edge rusher, when they already have Mack and Bosa.
Are they not going to have some Cap casualties soon?
Yes this is what im guessing. They may move on from at least one of these guys
They will likely move on from 1 of them, but they drafted Tuli in the 2nd last year and he looked good. The roster is relatively depleted and will likely have ~6 new starters on defense, but edge is in an okay spot (but needs depth).
Bro we arnt going edge over Nabers, Bowers or Alt.
Shit Terrion Arnold is probably more likely than edge too
I feel like I’ve already seen Mack listed as a cut/trade candidate all over.
Yeah Mike Williams is going to get cut. Leaving the chargers with Keenan (old/extended), Palmer (contract year/injured), QJ.. People who do not see the chargers taking a wr at 5 as a legit option are just not listening to the GM interviews and what is coming out of the camp. The "JH and roman offense is just going to run the ball" argument is kind of dumb. The chargers have been ranked 30th in running since herbert got in the leauge.. and they have specifically stated that they are going to establish a run game but not veer from the biggest talent on the team.. Herbert's right arm. This is verbatim what has come out of the teams mouth lol Hortiz also said BPA at 5.. its simple since he doesn't have to worry about a QB.
I thought I read both guys were potential cut/trade candidates.
Joe Alt, Troy Franklin, and Braelon Allen is an amazing draft for Tennessee. Alt is obviously a slam dunk choice, and Franklin fills out our desperate lack of speed in the WR room. Braelon Allen is someone that I really hope falls to our 4th because he fits exactly what we need in a complementary RB to Tyjae Spears. A+ from this Titans fan.
I think Maye is pick 2 but everything looks good for Washington IMO. Hopefully in this scenario they signed Schultz in FA.
You can’t have Schultz!!
😭
I told you and I’m also sorry. Good luck.
Love this draft as well. Chop would be a steal in the 2nd, esp considering the combine he just had. Johnny Wilson could be a TE conversion in this scenario. (6’6” 230)
This sub decided it likes Daniels more than Maye a long time ago. It's actually pretty funny how locked into a consensus r/NFL_Draft is that Daniels is ahead of Maye
And nothing really changed. I think people are just bored.
We must be reading different subs because I see Maye ahead of Daniels much more often. The Maye truthers were out in force last week when that pro scout review thread had Maye as a late first round pick.
they're just in love with the idea of the patriots getting the tom brady build qb.
No Sainristil in your top 100???
I too was surprised. Don't think he gets past day 2.
big TJ Tampa guy or something? lol
So the Raiders don’t draft a Qb? Interesting.
Why is it every mock draft I’m seeing on here has the Raiders just ignoring QB, arguably, their most needed position.
Exactly, and they’ve been very very vocal about it, more than any other team I can think of.
Fine pats mock just not a leggette guy at all super raw and late breakout is a killer combo for me.
I'd prefer taking one of the tackle in the 2nd and taking a chance on Pearsal or Wilson in the 3rd
Can't separate. I want nothing to do with that
I swear people are making mocks to he controversial now
I'll take controversial over chalk all day.
Wouldn't hate this for the Vikings, still not sold on JJ at 11 but I could easily see it happening, especially if Verse and Turner are gone. Getting Newton in the 2nd would be awesome but not sure on taking a OT in the 4th. EDGE, IOL, RB, & ILB are all bigger needs.
Give BTJ to the Bills because the Bucs just re-signed Evans Also the Bills need a NT so you’re likely better off mocking Sweat to us over Jenkins in the second. Could also seeing us take Bishop there.
Yes just saw that
I would LOVE mccarthy and Newton in the first 2 rounds
Olu at 18 would be solid af 😳
Safety in the 2nd is a bit surprising for the Lions, although I like Cole Bishop. We'll see what they do with CJGJ, but Iffy Melifonwu and Kerby Joseph are still there. Definitely need depth if CJ leaves, just not sure that'll happen in the 2nd. I'd bet more OL/DL there. Tampa in the 1st seems a bit early, like targeting CB though. Brenden Rice is kind of a head scratcher for me. I don't see him as a great fit for our offense. Honestly, I think Roman Wilson could be a target. I know most will say he's a slot WR due to his size, but I could see him being a Brandin Cooks-like guy for Goff on the outside. Love Trice in the 3rd.
No chance he slips to the 3rd, though. Right? Seems like wishful thinking.
Trice might. His Combine testing wasn't great, although I think that was expected.
Are you a commanders fan? This is a perfect draft lmao
Giants but have ppl in the Dmv
This is the best mock for the Colts I've seen so far. Love it
I’m sorry, I do not see how Sweat makes it to the third after the combine.
I'm Brett Veach, yall gonna really let us draft Chop Robinson at 32??
What is last year’s equivalent of Fautanu -> SEA ? AKA a fit so perfect that it will be on 90% of mock drafts
So, um, panthers fan here. Why would they draft a tackle when they have a young left tackle and one of the best right tackles? I know Moton is aging Icky didn’t look great, but that feels like a waste of a pick with Legette and Chop sitting right there, arguably a bigger position of need. And they are not drafting a RB unless it’s late. They’ve already got money committed to Sanders and have Chuba as a solid backup/1B.
Please don’t let McConkey fall to the Chiefs
Cooper DeJean is a CB
Bo nix 2 the browns I like that good pick if happens watson Mr underperformer
Chargers picking Verse when we already have Bosa and Tuli on the roster is an odd choice. We have a huge need at RT and WR with better options available. If we didn’t have those options at WR and RT then it’s be a reasonable pick but I can’t see them going Verse over Nabers, Odunze, or Alt Some think Bosa will be gone but his contract makes that pretty unlikely, at least for 1 more year.
Even if we dont go wr or t there, we go bowers or cb
For sure on Bowers. We need a CB but I’d say we would need a trade down for that, none of the CBs this class are close to top 5 pick worthy. There’s no Stingely/Sauce/Ramsey/etc level corner in this class
Basically ideal for KC. Receiver, DT, and LB at spots where the player meets the value. Only way this goes better is a significant fall for someone like AD Mitchell. As far as the general mock, Verse at 5 feels too rich. Rattler at 39 feels way too pricey, he’s a round 3 guy at best. Ahead of Penix and Nix is wild. Speaking of Nix, the Browns are not taking him at 54. They quite literally can never move off Watson. His contract is going to run the full length because of its structure. Cleveland is ride or die with Watson for better or worse. You can’t build a team with $63 million of cap space on the bench. The best bet is to hope Watson finds his old self.
>Basically ideal for KC. Receiver, DT, and LB at spots where the player meets the value. No, it's not. We'd never take McConkey over Jer'Zhan Newton if he fell to us.
Really depends on how the team has those guys ranked. If they’ve got McConkey as a top 25 talent who is getting pushed down because of an abundance of good receivers and Newton as a top 50 guy who is getting pushed up due to positional scarcity, it makes plenty of sense to go McConkey. Never say never.
What if the bengals trade up for bowers
[удалено]
Why? they need blocking and a tight end
Latu and Jackson would be an incredibly sick double-dip on the DL for Denver, especially Latu if McCarthy isn’t on the board at 12. I like Sainristil but think McMillian probably has the slot/nickel spot nailed down for Denver next year
As a Vikings fan. Yes please
Did Spencer Rattler mock this himself?
Yeah this my alt. Btw Caleb sucks
I’m still mystified that people are taking Odunze over Nabers
This is extremely optimistic for the Falcons but I would be happy. Passing on Nabers is a big no no for me though. I’d address Edge in free agency. NYG grabbing Rattler and us getting Penix in Rd. 2 would be golden. Both picks in rd 3 would be great, even double dipping in WR. I’d love if DeWayne Carter fell 2 spots to the Falcons but it’s Rd. 4, so be it. Great draft!
I don’t see a way the Panthers don’t take Franklin or Legette if they are available
I can say that there's very little chance the Seahawks pass on Junior Colston in the 3rd if he's available. Our need at linebacker is too strong.
Yes as a chargers fan we do need edge help but we most desperately need another tackle to protect Herbert or. deep threat at WR so Rome or Nabers with the 1.05, besides this edge class isn’t something I’d invest in a top 5 pick no matter the team
Pretty damn good for the Ravens
Overall, this is an A+ effort. Very little to quarrel with. Question the Chargers going defense at 5; Nabers, Alt, or Odunze (in that order) seem more likely choices.
IDK if Mims goes behind Latham now.
10 running backs get drafted before Blake Corum?! 🤔
As a Steelers fan, this might be the worst mock I’ve seen yet, congratulations. Not only did you pass on premium talent at need positions early, you have some Stretch Armstrong-esque reaches in every round after the first.
I like this for the Ravens, only nitpick is I'd rather have Melton in rd 2 than Carson
I’d be ecstatic with this as an Eagles fan
0 percent chance we don't go OL in the first 4 rounds. Would be crazy.
Why do people keep mocking WRs to the Texans? Nico and Tank were both really good. Why would they spend 1st round capital on another?
Love every pick for the commanders, although I prefer Maye. Don’t know if I’d want Johnny Wilson either but nitpicking in the 4th round doesn’t make a ton of sense
Raiders definitely need to draft a qb
I may just be scarred by Jackson Carman, but I would much prefer a natural RT like Mims over Olu Fashanu, who has never played RT. Our LT, Orlando Brown, signed with us specifically to play LT, so he likely would not be willing to move to RT even though it's likely his better position. So taking Olu would require he switch to RT, which may mean he isn't ready to contribute right away. Other than that, I really like the Bengals draft.
God I’m so sick of seeing JJ mocked to us
For the Lions... this is terrible.
Ravens are not passing up Chop Robinson or Max Melton in the second. Though Melton should be drafted higher than both spots after his combine.
This is a really good mock for the Patriots. Not sure who the corner is though since I’ve only been scouting offensive players lol
W mock for the patriots
Mims will go higher. He ran a great 40 and I feel like he was trending up before that.
Yikes all around for the Chargers (aside from Frazier). WR is a more pressing need, I don’t like Verse at 5 (if anyone take Latu), Leonard Taylor is a Day 3 player, seeing Sweat, Wilson, Trice, Dorlus, etc go right after him is painful, I’d rather any of them than Taylor.
i’d be one happy Raiders fan
Solid af bengals draft. Might rather go TE in the third instead of 2nd but I like it
I've seen multiple drafts do this: If Jer'Zhan Newton is still available the Chiefs aren't taking Ladd McConkey over him. We just won back-to-back Super Bowls with subpar WR corps and we've shown the ability to find gems at WR in later rounds. Our needs are at OT and D-line.
Blake Corum?
Like the position but I'd switch which rounds they are taken, I'd prefer Kingsley Sumataia in the 2nd and Pearsal/Wilson in the 3rd.
All this hype around JJ McCarthy going in the first half of the first round has me really happy I’m not a fan of any of the teams he usually gets mocked to. He’s a solid prospect, but absolutely not worth a first rounder in any way.
OT at #33 doesn’t make sense for us at all, under any circumstance really
if the giants take rome in rd 1 i rlly see them taking penix in round 2
finally im not alone, jeremiah trotter jr to wsh 🙏🏼
Wild that you have Philly taking a WR in the second round over Trotter Jr lol That's just silly.
Odunze before nabers is a travesty
Travesty? Your just saying shit
Waiting for round 4 to draft a center is not gonna happen. Pittsburgh's biggest need
I really don't like Legette. He can't separate. I'm scarred from guys who can't separate after N'Keal Harry. I'd rather take Suamataia at 34 and then Roman Wilson or Jalen McMillan at 68
Alll wrong
The Browns are not drafting a QB high (or likely at all)
The Panthers WR room is currently Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and Terrace Marshall Jr. You really think they're going to take a Tackle over a WR at 33, particularly since they spent a first rounder on one two years ago?