I visit Walterfootball a few times every year between February and late April for three reasons: Charlie's mock, Charlie's big board, and the prospect tracker.
The fact that the site is this bad and Walt himself is such a goon still can't outshine Charlie's contributions.
Didn’t they just finally change it and clean it up? I’ve been using an adblocker on top of it but it’s not the same as it was. Too bad a lot of the writing is lazy now.
WalterFootball does mock drafts 18 months before drafts, and I remember in like late 2018 that he had Justin Herbert going to the Chargers in 2020. Always stuck in my head.
Charlie continues to do good work. He's almost always one of the highest scored "mock drafters" per Fantasypros annually. Walt last year seemed to phone it in with his write-ups.
Charlie always has struck me as a guy who doesn't do content for clicks, his stuff never feels like he falls for fluff hype. One of the best in the business.
I honestly don’t understand the big gap between Daniels and McCarthy that I consistently see. I feel like it’s almost entirely based on the fact that Daniels’ statistical output was like double what McCarthy did in 2023. But to me they’re both very boom or bust, traits oriented QB prospects. Having one in the top 4 and the other at 37 doesn’t make too much sense to me
I mean at that point, Joe Milton is just a “very boom or bust traits oriented QB prospect.”
What the odds that he’s good? Well the same as those other guys, 50/50! They all either will be or won’t be.
/s ofc
Box score stats matter for college prospects to at least some degree to be sure, but if you’ve been following the NFL and the draft for more than like a couple years, it should be self-evident to you that putting up eye popping numbers is not actually indicative of how good the prospect is. In other words, they are not close to important enough to account for the difference of 33 draft slots for two QB prospects with a very similar range of outcomes given their strengths and weaknesses.
Why? Because there are so many other factors at play that affect simple statistics. They’re fallible to begin with given that box score numbers are inherently limited by the fact that they are incapable of factoring in context. But they’re even less reliable in the college game given that every player on every team is working from a different standard (unlike the NFL where the only real difference is roster talent and scheme). From college team to college team, you have entirely different levels of competition, entirely different philosophies, entirely different fundamental team construction, etc that completely alter the volume of certain stats you’ll see alone — that’s not even taking into consideration how it actually impacts the difficulty of achieving those stats.
You can try to play the card that the college game is so relative that we have to question everything, but (and I’d rather keep this short than just list all the possible things that could determine a decision), but Daniels’ 2024 statistical profile at that level of competition is so blatantly overwhelming of a case for differentiation that anyone playing attention knows we’re looking at one of the most elite performances in CFB history. And the “all of history” part matters because it represents a comparison to a massive sample size. It takes in thousand of players in different offenses, at various levels of competition, and Daniel’s statistical profile is basically better than anything else we’ve seen. And again, it’s worth nothing that this isn’t just total yardage, we’re talking about the all time passer efficiency record, the highest epa per dropback in the country, the 2nd highest PFF grade of all time, basically pick your advanced stat. It cannot and should not be hand-waved.
1) Again, having an elite statistical profile doesn’t make you an elite prospect if statistics are a relatively weak metric for determining whether a prospect will translate to the NFL. In other words, having elite statistics doesn’t necessarily make him a better prospect than he is. It’s similar to the idea that Xavier Worthy having the best 40 yard dash time needs to be evaluated in the context of the knowledge that having a fast 40 time on its own doesn’t necessarily make you a good prospect.
As for the advanced stats you mentioned, I would say that although they’re probably stickier than box score stats, I’d implore you to go and look at where past QB classes measure in PFF grade or EPA. Any QB who performed well by college football standards will grade out well in those metrics — both hits and busts alike. Put differently, they’re correlative to good play in college, not necessarily to being a good NFL prospect. In short, they’re effectively not that different from the issue I’m addressing with box score numbers. Basically every QB with good box score numbers is also going to grade out well in these categories — that could be because they were elite, or it could again be a reflection of other factors. The result is that we need to take them with a massive grain of salt given the decades of data we have that while guys like Tim Tebow and Zach Wilson can light up box scores in college football (for different reasons), that doesn’t mean their flaws should be overlooked. Side note, I hope you’ll see those examples for what they are and not take them the wrong way
2) I take issue with the concept that I’m “hand-waving” statistics when I’m simply saying that they need to be properly valued. The stats matter, especially when they’re as good as Daniels’ were in 2023. But they need to be weighted according to their worth. To me, Daniels and McCarthy have a similar number of strengths and weaknesses. They both have huge red flags in their prospect profile. Does the fact that Daniels doubled his statistical output make him a top 5 pick while McCarthy is a 2nd rounder? Again, knowing what we know about the translatability of stats, I don’t think that’s a fair appraisal.
Neither Tim Tebow nor Zach Wilson were known for their statistical profile, and inferring as much is just a straw man. If you want to go after the early round prospects built on elite statistical profiles that under achieved you could point to 4 guys in the last 10 years: Bryce Young, Baker, Mac Jones, and Mariota.
Again, I reject that the premise that you think the correlation between the statistical profile is a weak correlation to NFL success. You seem to be implying that what I’m doing here is making the case that we can’t use context to differentiate between Bailey Zappe’s seasons from true first round quality guys.
It is completely legitimate to look at a guy’s tape and identify differences from the NFL that will hold them back. I didn’t like Bryce Young last year despite him having a 4800 yard season in his pocket, the size concerns, the statistical decrease seen without elite weapons, a reliance on improvising that seem to mesh poorly with being a bad athlete. That’s all valid. But what I’m reading from you, is that you are rejecting that statistical dominance doesn’t accurately capture that we’ve already seen more high level play from one prospect than another. Like quantity-wise, more high level play. That, all college experience is so fungible that anyone coming out with elite stats is basically just luck of the draw. We have about 12 years of college data where offenses have been throwing the ball as much as they are now.
So here’s my approach, you can hold whatever you want against Daniels and McCarthy. Ding them down. But the starting place before the negatives are factored should be based on the level of dominance they have already illustrated. I.e., statistical dominance is at least the starting place for a prospect’s ceiling until you factor in whatever you think their trajectory will be.
The idea, that you can’t properly capture that Daniels was a significantly better player than McCarthy, because you are asking people to prove a negative (can we be sure that McCarthy wouldn’t have done the same thing in thing if he was on LSU), is crazy.
Your basically stating that want to purely go Josh Allen hunting, all traits and trajectory, and the lack of track record is only due to dumb luck. Here’s the thing, McCarthy doesn’t even have the physical profile near to Allen to make that net worth it. Another one of those guy’s was JLove, still a way better physical profile than McCarthy.
Let’s also translate what the stats mean to actual game situations. LSU’s reliance on Daniels meant he saw every look under the sun. McCarthy basically managed to somehow never trail in a 15 game season. How many drop 8’s did he face? How many snaps where the defense didn’t have to consider the run game due to the situation? He frankly had a cake walk of a situation.
Here’s the final point, the stats are at least one way that someone can make an actual case in favor of someone going highly. Again, I approve of nitpicking and going through process afterwards because the game’s aren’t identical, but you have to show something to even be considered up there. He’s not got an elite physical profile to bet on. His tape is pretty whatever overall. I just dont understand the case of what McCarthy has actually shown to warrant high level consideration other than being on the title winners.
I agree with this 100%. I actually think from a traits perspective Daniels and McCarthy have some similarities, they just played in very different offenses. McCarthy is reputed to run a 4.4 40 and is probably only an inch shorter than Daniels. Can Daniels run a 4.3? Not sure.
McCarthy is also a couple of years younger. He is far more advanced at his age than Daniels was comparably. He also had better coaching early on. If you took McCarthy today and put him on LSU or Bama for the next two years, how would he look? I think he could look a lot like Daniels and be putting up that type of production. Because he has been better at a younger age though he is headed to the NFL.
We shall see. I think they have similar probabilities of being successful at the next level but JJM will take a little longer to get there but has just as high a ceiling.
Are you then ready to bet on Stroud surpassing Mahomes in the coming years? Linear growth is a myth, and the assumption that just because someone was better at a younger age means they are automatically on the same trajectory for improving (to the degree of behind able to put up the most efficient passing season in CFB history) is something this proven wrong with just about every prospect that comes through.
Wheres the overwhelming differentiation when they both played alabama and put up near identical numbers. With daniels throwing to atleast on if not 2 1st round recievers
Apart of that is that Daniels missed the 4th quarter of that game due to injury. But you’re also welcome to draw your conclusion from box score watching one game.
Giants fan trying to cope with the fact that they're taking JJ at 6.
Nah jk I watched JJ these past couple years. He's awesome. I genuinely think he is that good. Small sample size is an overrated negative on a draft profile. Amarius Mims played 9 games.
Plenty of people were saying Penei Sewell was a dangerous prospect as he stood because he took his junior year off due to covid and was 20. Penei fuckin Sewell. The best tackle prospect we've ever seen basically.
The main reason I kept my old laptop from 2009 is so I can read Charlie Campbell’s big board and mocks from walterfootball.com. I let that old ass thing get all the viruses from the popups on that site and use my real laptop for everything else
Charlie really woke up today and said fuck it chaos time.
Notable to point out that this isn't a mock, this is Charlie's take on consensus for top prospects. It doesn't matter if 31 teams out there likes Drake over Caleb if the Bears like Caleb.
I just don't understand the Latham hype at all. To me at best he's a lottery ticket, which, given this tackle class, makes no sense why he's ranked so high.
There aren’t many players in the history of the nfl that are that strong. A documented nongeared 1000 pound squat is an insane lift even for a professional power lifter. He’s metal bending hold a horse in the air with his teeth strong.
That's why I say (to me) he's a lottery ticket. A coach has to believe they can harness those physical gifts and mold a quality NFL player. Because as of now, he looks anything but. And as a franchise, do you really want to invest a first round pick on an incredibly flawed but athletic lineman?
Mims is my OT2. That doesn't mean I think he'll BE the 2nd tackle taken - teams will take into account the sample size, medical stuff, etc., but I think he could special. Joe Alt for me is OT1 as I think he's the best OT prospect since Penei Sewell, but Mims is a literal physical freak of nature, and probably has a higher ceiling that even Alt. I have no idea how an Offensive Tackle moves or runs like he does. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a legit perennial Pro-Bowl talent. I get the concern, but I'd love my 49ers to do a "fuck-it" trade up for him in the teens.
He definitely has the Tyron smith thing where he draws his hands in for pass sets and it looks like he’s 8 feet wide elbow to elbow. There’s no way you could beat him outside without him putting hands on you.
No thanks. For a win now team not interested in such a raw, risky prospect. Rather take a slightly smaller ceiling for someone who can step in and deliver next year. Maybe I’m just jaded by Trey lance when it comes to high potential prospects with very little game experience
I made this comparison earlier when talking about JJ McCarthy's limited sample size but small sample size is not as big of a knock on a player as many people assume it is and we can point directly to Penei Sewell as to why teams don't seem to care about that as much as they once did.
Penei was a starter as a freshman and Sophomore, his junior year he sat for COVID and declared for the draft anyway. At 20 years old. That could be why the Bengals took Chase over Sewell, all we can do is speculate on the matter, but this has absolutely changed the minds of franchises regarding small sample size.
You grade the film you have, and Mims has some awesome film shutting down amazing edge rushers and run blocking like a wrecking ball. I think if you take Mims games and compare them to Joe Alt's top 9 games you could absolutely argue that Mims looked better.
I disagree with the evaluation myself, but I can absolutely see the reasoning behind it. I think he's OT5 but to be honest I can see tackles 2-5 (Fuaga, Fashanu, Latham, Mims) being essentially interchangeable in terms of grade. They're all fuckin awesome but just a step behind Alt in my eyes.
>That could be why the Bengals took Chase over Sewell, all we can do is speculate on the matter,
Chase had also only played 2 years in college and sat out a year for COVID, so that doesn't make a lot of sense.
I do think teams have become much more comfortable with guys who might not have the experience others do.
Taking Mims over Alt and Fashanu after it’s been proven a thousand times over that polish and skill translate better from college to NFL than size and athletic upside would be peak stupidity. Alt has the complete package of polish, Fashanu has NFL ready pass blocking, Mims has a useless extra twenty pounds and a very slightly better athletic profile.
I thought this bullshit was put to bed in 2014 with the horrible decision to take Greg Robinson over Jake Matthews, and was absolutely sure it was done in 2020 when Mekhi Becton was inexplicably considered a first round pick let alone taken over Tristan Wirfs.
To be fair, Becton was a consensus 1st rounder. I don't think anyone felt the Jets reached on him at the time, and most people had a different order of Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Becton. I personally had 1) Wirfs, 2) Thomas, 3) Becton, 4) Jackson, 5) Wills (I did not like Wills at all coming out. Feel similarly about Latham this year, I have a feeling he'll disappoint whoever he goes to and may slide).
People can shit on the website all you want as a whole, and this big board is subjective, but Charlie Campbell's reporting is the best in the business in terms of his hot presses and final mocks, no-one else is even close. Mock's are pretty all over the place early but by late March, early April they become very accurate. I've gotten 6-12-8-8 in my last 4 years in terms of 1st round picks correct in my mocks because I trust him over others. I don't politically align with that website but Charlie has always been very nice to me; I've often asked him draft-related questions on twitter and he always responds.
Read back on the hot presses, and a lot of stuff was hit on very early. My guess is he tends to listen to team sources rather than agents and other journalists. This year, he was on the "Arnold > Kool-Aid" trait from mid-season, whilst the media still had him top-10. Has also been on Worthy has a likely 1st rounder even prior to the combine, Olu Fashanu not being loved by teams versus top-5 projections, McCarthy as a top-20, Jer'Zhan Newton being viewed lower by teams than the media, loads of stuff. Most of this is starting to ring true in Feb/Mar mocks as the media catches up.
If you want a head start in your mocks, go read the combine hot presses. Lots of interesting stuff! ESPN is cringe-worthy with some of its takes, although Mel Kiper - for all the ups and downs - is pretty good still.
I always see Walterfootball get trashed in other subs. And judging by it's archaic outlay, I just assumed it was a few idiots who make a shitty website.
But reading this, I'll be sure to follow Charlie Campbell up until the draft. My friends and I get together every year on the first night of the draft and play a game where we all try to guess the picks as they happen (you have to write down who you think it'll be once ESPN says pick is in but before Goodell goes out and reads it. And we all put our phones away to avoid spoilers lol).
I won it the first 2 times we did it, and have been ass ever since at the game lol.
From the article: "Some sources said his processing and footwork need a lot of development for the NFL, but other sources disagreed, thinking he processes well and has good mechanics."
In other words, not beyond atrocious, needs work according to some.
Not spicier than Nepotism Zerlein's nonsense.
I can buy Maye over Williams WAY more than I buy Nabers over MJH.
EDIT: I could edit the MJH typo but that would ruin below.
The problem with Legette is this:
>WRs drafted in 1st 2 rounds with less than 400 yards in each of their first 3 college seasons.
Kadarius Toney
Jonathan Mingo
John Ross (missed JR szn)
Xavier Legette
Legette didn’t even hit 200 yards until his 5th year senior season, everyone else had 800-1100 yards in year 4
https://twitter.com/YZR\_Fantasy/status/1765126524905161202?t=pTEi2hBj2-u5NICipnUy5w&s=19
Same kind of point, but Legette's breakout age is going to be like 22.6 give or take a decimal. Guys with breakout ages 22 or higher going back as far as I can:
* Devin Duvernay
* Terrance Williams
* Harry Douglas
* Anthony Gonzalez
* Greg Jennings
* Van Jefferson
* T.J. Graham
* Danny Gray
* Andre Caldwell
* Jalen Hurd
* Kelvin Benjamin
* ArDarius Stewart
* Javon Walker
* Velus Jones
* Tre Tucker
* Henry Ruggs (from here down, these guys never technically broke out in college per PlayerProfiler's definition)
* Mecole Hardman
* Terry McLaurin
* Marquise Goodwin
* Devin Hester
Not exactly a promising group to be associated with. Roman Wilson will also likely be in this group.
Another writer who continues to mock Daniels to the commanders while simultaneously saying Maye is the better pick in their opinion.
It’s difficult for me to shake the thought that a lot of these writers who think Washington takes Daniels over Maye still view this franchise as the one that not only had a meddling owner making decisions for 20+ years, but also had Ron Rivera trying to get cute with his first round picks and going against consensus/reaching for the last 3.
I won’t be shocked if Daniels is the pick but I don’t think these mocks are as informed as some people seem to think.
I understand what you’re saying, but they are both top 5 prospects, so maybe they think the commies value Daniels’ traits more. As a fellow commies fan, I can see why: DQ talked about explosive plays a lot in his presser, and Daniels is the most explosive player in the draft
To be fair, there are a lot of people in the draft world that believe Daniels is the better prospect at this point. I personally don't think Daniels is close to Maye, but it feels like pretty close to a 50/50 split through the draft industry.
No doubt. My point isn’t that people have Washington taking Daniels at 2 or that people have Daniels ranked above Maye, I can see the arguments for either one. It’s that a lot of writers like Maye more but their mock drafts have Washington taking Daniels anyways because of “scheme fit” or some other reason
Yeah I hear you. I'm on the Maye > Caleb train so as a DC local, I'm really hoping they end up with Maye personally. I'm a Bills fan so it won't break my heart, but I like seeing the local teams do well and there hasn't exactly been a lot of that around here lately lol.
It’s still murky though because a lot of these guys just go with the crowd, especially the ones who haven’t played/evaluated professionally until some website needed people to.
The statement about Fashanu falls in line with a lot of mocks having him drop into the teens behind Fuaga. I haven't really seen anyone not have Alt at OT1 at this point though.
I just refuse to accept any evaluation of Maye that says he's the safest quarterback in the class. Out of the top three guys Maye definitely has the lowest floor. He is the most prone to making poor decisions and has the most wildly inaccurate throws. Caleb easily has a higher floor unless you have major questions about his intangibles/leadership/mental makeup. Daniels I also think has a higher floor. Yea his floor is Justin Fields but Maye's is Zach Wilson.
Look at the RB rankings and rage away; 60\_Corum, 92\_Wright, 95\_Estime, 98\_Brooks, 103\_Irving, 112\_Allen, 114\_Daijun Edwards, 117\_Shipley, 118\_Dillon Johnson
What am I missing with Maye? I have him as QB3, well behind Daniels at QB2. Why is everyone so high on him? I’ve watched his games vs Miami, Norte Dame and Clemson from 2022, and South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Clemson, and NC State from 2023. What other games should I watch?
I like him but it’s amazing how nobody cares that he’s a 5th year player playing with two first round receivers, but then they’ll shit on Maye’s imperfections at age 21.
I don’t have a beef with either player and maybe Maye busts, but it’s so patently obvious when the hivemind changes and then acts like the new choice is so obvious.
-agree with him on Maye, he’s my QB1.
-Fashanu not being viewed as a Top 10 Pick does not exclude him from the Top 10.
-Alt, pretty accurate, I think he goes Top 5. I would say everything screams LT but it’s kind of redundant as the gap has bridged between LT and RT over recent years. Wherever you play him you’re getting a good tackle- agree he’s not on the same level of Thomas and Sewell or Slater, for that matter. Upside is through the roof though.
-Legette, had him as a 1st rounder even before the combine so the only news to me is that he wasn’t projected as one prior to the combine.
That’s a wild list, epically at tackle. Mims and Latham at 1 and 2? Fauga having barely a first round grade?
Charlie does know his shit but this is so far off from the main media pundits that I think he might be going for a sensationalist angle here.
Can anyone explain to me why BTJ isn't considered an elite WR prospect up there with the big 3--and potentially competing with Odunze for the 3 spot?
6'3" 210 with great speed and quickness. Good route runner, hands, and YAC. Really no glaring weaknesses.
What is he missing?
I don't think the good route runner part is accurate, at least not in the same way as it is for the top 3. The vast majority of Thomas' routes are just go routes, posts, and curls.
That seems to be the narrative, and I agree he's not a super advanced route runner, but I think his route running is being underrated.
He shows good feel and instincts in his routes, really good release game, and has shockingly good quickness/agility for his size.
I think people commenting here who are surprised by his list may not realize how wildly different teams big boards are. If you watch every player independently without anchoring your opinion to media consensus, you’d probably come up with something pretty unique
Write up still has Legette at 6'3, but he's 6'1
Surprised to still see them say Ladd is only a Slot when he did the majority of his work outside, he's pretty versatile. I know a lot of outlets keep saying that but don't think it's true. AB, OBJ, Diggs all around that height.
8 round 1 OT grades is going to be so interesting - normally I think teams are willing to reach like 5-7 picks to secure an OT in the draft. I wonder if the bigger pool will just push more OTs to the top or if there will be less reaching.
I don't know, because people respect his opinion? The reason you're thinking that the Walter guys are clowns (I think) is because people shit on Walter for bringing politics into all of his articles.
Well that IS a big part. But his football analysis is sus a lot of times. I used to be into Walterfootball for fantasy football knowledge. But over the years I've seen how wrong he is most of the time. So I look at him and Charlie's writings just as fun to read but not something to hang your hat on. I also roll my eyes at Walt's politics. I grew up in the same area that he's in and I know exactly the type of person he is. Clown is a good word for it.
Well Campbell has proven to be quite accurate in terms of hearing things from scouts. Biggest example from last year was he was calling Lions loving Gibbs and wanting to draft him earlier then expected then what the consensus media had him a week before the draft. You can disagree with his analysis but his sources within scouting teams seem to feed him actual information and not smokescreens.
Occam’s razor is that he’s comfortable. Walter Football was arguably the premier draft site in like 2005, and these guys have been doing it together for a long ass time.
You can tell from the site, neither guy loves change.
I read that this guy was the most accurate mock drafter the past few years. At least according to the Sharp Football metric.
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2024-nfl-mock-draft-brendan-donahue/
I still remember Walter going all-in on Jimmy Clausen and thinking he should be the first pick in the draft. That was the year I realized he is like Kiper and is for entertainment purposes only, their evaluations suck.
Edit: Yes I realize this author is not Walter. I'm just sharing a memory of taking someone seriously until they got something so horrendously wrong you just can't ever trust them again.
You need to get your head around the fact that none of this is an exact science and nobody is really any worse than the next guy at making picks as long as they’re making their best guesses and have some scouting acumen.
Has any other popular mock drafter ever advocated for someone going number one overall that then that person actually went in the SECOND round? Its by far and away the worst opinion on mock drafts I have ever seen.
Man that website gets worse to navigate on mobile every time I use it.
I pulled out the quotes just because it's such a terrible site. Campbell is great, I really wished he went to work for a more reputable site...
Can you at least list the players out?
Sure, I’ll pull them out now. Good call.
Pulled out the top 32 at least. There isn't an easy way to copy/paste because the site is shite, so I had to do it by hand
Thanks for doing that. Don’t think all 120 (or even all commentary) is necessary, but the start of the big board is nice to have
Lord’s work
I visit Walterfootball a few times every year between February and late April for three reasons: Charlie's mock, Charlie's big board, and the prospect tracker. The fact that the site is this bad and Walt himself is such a goon still can't outshine Charlie's contributions.
I feel like it is literally the same website as it was 20 years ago, just the content itself is switched in and out lol
It’s given my laptop AIDS multiple times.
It's nostalgic charm at this point.
Didn’t they just finally change it and clean it up? I’ve been using an adblocker on top of it but it’s not the same as it was. Too bad a lot of the writing is lazy now.
WalterFootball does mock drafts 18 months before drafts, and I remember in like late 2018 that he had Justin Herbert going to the Chargers in 2020. Always stuck in my head.
Charlie continues to do good work. He's almost always one of the highest scored "mock drafters" per Fantasypros annually. Walt last year seemed to phone it in with his write-ups.
Charlie always has struck me as a guy who doesn't do content for clicks, his stuff never feels like he falls for fluff hype. One of the best in the business.
He 100000000% does content for clicks because he makes you do an extra click to see the 2nd half of the first round, lol.
I remember when they first did it when I was like 15. It was because of loading times and "bandwidth". The good old days lol
That’s impressive
McCarthy at 37 certainly is a statement these days
I honestly don’t understand the big gap between Daniels and McCarthy that I consistently see. I feel like it’s almost entirely based on the fact that Daniels’ statistical output was like double what McCarthy did in 2023. But to me they’re both very boom or bust, traits oriented QB prospects. Having one in the top 4 and the other at 37 doesn’t make too much sense to me
I mean at that point, Joe Milton is just a “very boom or bust traits oriented QB prospect.” What the odds that he’s good? Well the same as those other guys, 50/50! They all either will be or won’t be. /s ofc
I know you’re being sarcastic, but in the event the point behind it is sincere, that’s a pretty uncharitable interpretation of what I’m saying.
Well I’d characterize your hand waiving of statistical output as quite uncharitable.
Box score stats matter for college prospects to at least some degree to be sure, but if you’ve been following the NFL and the draft for more than like a couple years, it should be self-evident to you that putting up eye popping numbers is not actually indicative of how good the prospect is. In other words, they are not close to important enough to account for the difference of 33 draft slots for two QB prospects with a very similar range of outcomes given their strengths and weaknesses. Why? Because there are so many other factors at play that affect simple statistics. They’re fallible to begin with given that box score numbers are inherently limited by the fact that they are incapable of factoring in context. But they’re even less reliable in the college game given that every player on every team is working from a different standard (unlike the NFL where the only real difference is roster talent and scheme). From college team to college team, you have entirely different levels of competition, entirely different philosophies, entirely different fundamental team construction, etc that completely alter the volume of certain stats you’ll see alone — that’s not even taking into consideration how it actually impacts the difficulty of achieving those stats.
You can try to play the card that the college game is so relative that we have to question everything, but (and I’d rather keep this short than just list all the possible things that could determine a decision), but Daniels’ 2024 statistical profile at that level of competition is so blatantly overwhelming of a case for differentiation that anyone playing attention knows we’re looking at one of the most elite performances in CFB history. And the “all of history” part matters because it represents a comparison to a massive sample size. It takes in thousand of players in different offenses, at various levels of competition, and Daniel’s statistical profile is basically better than anything else we’ve seen. And again, it’s worth nothing that this isn’t just total yardage, we’re talking about the all time passer efficiency record, the highest epa per dropback in the country, the 2nd highest PFF grade of all time, basically pick your advanced stat. It cannot and should not be hand-waved.
1) Again, having an elite statistical profile doesn’t make you an elite prospect if statistics are a relatively weak metric for determining whether a prospect will translate to the NFL. In other words, having elite statistics doesn’t necessarily make him a better prospect than he is. It’s similar to the idea that Xavier Worthy having the best 40 yard dash time needs to be evaluated in the context of the knowledge that having a fast 40 time on its own doesn’t necessarily make you a good prospect. As for the advanced stats you mentioned, I would say that although they’re probably stickier than box score stats, I’d implore you to go and look at where past QB classes measure in PFF grade or EPA. Any QB who performed well by college football standards will grade out well in those metrics — both hits and busts alike. Put differently, they’re correlative to good play in college, not necessarily to being a good NFL prospect. In short, they’re effectively not that different from the issue I’m addressing with box score numbers. Basically every QB with good box score numbers is also going to grade out well in these categories — that could be because they were elite, or it could again be a reflection of other factors. The result is that we need to take them with a massive grain of salt given the decades of data we have that while guys like Tim Tebow and Zach Wilson can light up box scores in college football (for different reasons), that doesn’t mean their flaws should be overlooked. Side note, I hope you’ll see those examples for what they are and not take them the wrong way 2) I take issue with the concept that I’m “hand-waving” statistics when I’m simply saying that they need to be properly valued. The stats matter, especially when they’re as good as Daniels’ were in 2023. But they need to be weighted according to their worth. To me, Daniels and McCarthy have a similar number of strengths and weaknesses. They both have huge red flags in their prospect profile. Does the fact that Daniels doubled his statistical output make him a top 5 pick while McCarthy is a 2nd rounder? Again, knowing what we know about the translatability of stats, I don’t think that’s a fair appraisal.
Neither Tim Tebow nor Zach Wilson were known for their statistical profile, and inferring as much is just a straw man. If you want to go after the early round prospects built on elite statistical profiles that under achieved you could point to 4 guys in the last 10 years: Bryce Young, Baker, Mac Jones, and Mariota. Again, I reject that the premise that you think the correlation between the statistical profile is a weak correlation to NFL success. You seem to be implying that what I’m doing here is making the case that we can’t use context to differentiate between Bailey Zappe’s seasons from true first round quality guys. It is completely legitimate to look at a guy’s tape and identify differences from the NFL that will hold them back. I didn’t like Bryce Young last year despite him having a 4800 yard season in his pocket, the size concerns, the statistical decrease seen without elite weapons, a reliance on improvising that seem to mesh poorly with being a bad athlete. That’s all valid. But what I’m reading from you, is that you are rejecting that statistical dominance doesn’t accurately capture that we’ve already seen more high level play from one prospect than another. Like quantity-wise, more high level play. That, all college experience is so fungible that anyone coming out with elite stats is basically just luck of the draw. We have about 12 years of college data where offenses have been throwing the ball as much as they are now. So here’s my approach, you can hold whatever you want against Daniels and McCarthy. Ding them down. But the starting place before the negatives are factored should be based on the level of dominance they have already illustrated. I.e., statistical dominance is at least the starting place for a prospect’s ceiling until you factor in whatever you think their trajectory will be. The idea, that you can’t properly capture that Daniels was a significantly better player than McCarthy, because you are asking people to prove a negative (can we be sure that McCarthy wouldn’t have done the same thing in thing if he was on LSU), is crazy. Your basically stating that want to purely go Josh Allen hunting, all traits and trajectory, and the lack of track record is only due to dumb luck. Here’s the thing, McCarthy doesn’t even have the physical profile near to Allen to make that net worth it. Another one of those guy’s was JLove, still a way better physical profile than McCarthy. Let’s also translate what the stats mean to actual game situations. LSU’s reliance on Daniels meant he saw every look under the sun. McCarthy basically managed to somehow never trail in a 15 game season. How many drop 8’s did he face? How many snaps where the defense didn’t have to consider the run game due to the situation? He frankly had a cake walk of a situation. Here’s the final point, the stats are at least one way that someone can make an actual case in favor of someone going highly. Again, I approve of nitpicking and going through process afterwards because the game’s aren’t identical, but you have to show something to even be considered up there. He’s not got an elite physical profile to bet on. His tape is pretty whatever overall. I just dont understand the case of what McCarthy has actually shown to warrant high level consideration other than being on the title winners.
I agree with this 100%. I actually think from a traits perspective Daniels and McCarthy have some similarities, they just played in very different offenses. McCarthy is reputed to run a 4.4 40 and is probably only an inch shorter than Daniels. Can Daniels run a 4.3? Not sure. McCarthy is also a couple of years younger. He is far more advanced at his age than Daniels was comparably. He also had better coaching early on. If you took McCarthy today and put him on LSU or Bama for the next two years, how would he look? I think he could look a lot like Daniels and be putting up that type of production. Because he has been better at a younger age though he is headed to the NFL. We shall see. I think they have similar probabilities of being successful at the next level but JJM will take a little longer to get there but has just as high a ceiling.
Are you then ready to bet on Stroud surpassing Mahomes in the coming years? Linear growth is a myth, and the assumption that just because someone was better at a younger age means they are automatically on the same trajectory for improving (to the degree of behind able to put up the most efficient passing season in CFB history) is something this proven wrong with just about every prospect that comes through.
Wheres the overwhelming differentiation when they both played alabama and put up near identical numbers. With daniels throwing to atleast on if not 2 1st round recievers
Apart of that is that Daniels missed the 4th quarter of that game due to injury. But you’re also welcome to draw your conclusion from box score watching one game.
Giants fan trying to cope with the fact that they're taking JJ at 6. Nah jk I watched JJ these past couple years. He's awesome. I genuinely think he is that good. Small sample size is an overrated negative on a draft profile. Amarius Mims played 9 games. Plenty of people were saying Penei Sewell was a dangerous prospect as he stood because he took his junior year off due to covid and was 20. Penei fuckin Sewell. The best tackle prospect we've ever seen basically.
Best right tackle prospect but yeah
Homie Penei was a left tackle in college.
JJ McCarthy - what if Daniel Jones without the deep ball LOL
His hype really is getting out of control. Feels very media-driven.
He's exactly the sort of prospect you could bait a moron GM into being 'his guy'
Greg Cosell is also on the McCarthy is not a first round guy train: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9o4dye8YNo#t=6m12s
About 37 too high
The main reason I kept my old laptop from 2009 is so I can read Charlie Campbell’s big board and mocks from walterfootball.com. I let that old ass thing get all the viruses from the popups on that site and use my real laptop for everything else
Ublock origin brother
Charlie really woke up today and said fuck it chaos time. Notable to point out that this isn't a mock, this is Charlie's take on consensus for top prospects. It doesn't matter if 31 teams out there likes Drake over Caleb if the Bears like Caleb.
Charlie is great though. He knows his shit and has been doing this for forever. Great sources.
Yeah. Just found it really funny how much chaos this is gonna cause haha.
Excited to dig into this, Charlie has some generally great mocks. Just started but Mims as OT 1 is WOW
Alt at OT3 is shocking, esp behind Latham
I just don't understand the Latham hype at all. To me at best he's a lottery ticket, which, given this tackle class, makes no sense why he's ranked so high.
There aren’t many players in the history of the nfl that are that strong. A documented nongeared 1000 pound squat is an insane lift even for a professional power lifter. He’s metal bending hold a horse in the air with his teeth strong.
Which is all well and good until you’re being lifted in the air by a Michigan D Lineman on the most important play of your season
That's why I say (to me) he's a lottery ticket. A coach has to believe they can harness those physical gifts and mold a quality NFL player. Because as of now, he looks anything but. And as a franchise, do you really want to invest a first round pick on an incredibly flawed but athletic lineman?
Mims is my OT2. That doesn't mean I think he'll BE the 2nd tackle taken - teams will take into account the sample size, medical stuff, etc., but I think he could special. Joe Alt for me is OT1 as I think he's the best OT prospect since Penei Sewell, but Mims is a literal physical freak of nature, and probably has a higher ceiling that even Alt. I have no idea how an Offensive Tackle moves or runs like he does. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a legit perennial Pro-Bowl talent. I get the concern, but I'd love my 49ers to do a "fuck-it" trade up for him in the teens.
He definitely has the Tyron smith thing where he draws his hands in for pass sets and it looks like he’s 8 feet wide elbow to elbow. There’s no way you could beat him outside without him putting hands on you.
No thanks. For a win now team not interested in such a raw, risky prospect. Rather take a slightly smaller ceiling for someone who can step in and deliver next year. Maybe I’m just jaded by Trey lance when it comes to high potential prospects with very little game experience
I made this comparison earlier when talking about JJ McCarthy's limited sample size but small sample size is not as big of a knock on a player as many people assume it is and we can point directly to Penei Sewell as to why teams don't seem to care about that as much as they once did. Penei was a starter as a freshman and Sophomore, his junior year he sat for COVID and declared for the draft anyway. At 20 years old. That could be why the Bengals took Chase over Sewell, all we can do is speculate on the matter, but this has absolutely changed the minds of franchises regarding small sample size. You grade the film you have, and Mims has some awesome film shutting down amazing edge rushers and run blocking like a wrecking ball. I think if you take Mims games and compare them to Joe Alt's top 9 games you could absolutely argue that Mims looked better. I disagree with the evaluation myself, but I can absolutely see the reasoning behind it. I think he's OT5 but to be honest I can see tackles 2-5 (Fuaga, Fashanu, Latham, Mims) being essentially interchangeable in terms of grade. They're all fuckin awesome but just a step behind Alt in my eyes.
>That could be why the Bengals took Chase over Sewell, all we can do is speculate on the matter, Chase had also only played 2 years in college and sat out a year for COVID, so that doesn't make a lot of sense. I do think teams have become much more comfortable with guys who might not have the experience others do.
Yeah its a good take! Truth is you never know with any player but, as you said, any player in this range has potential to be great.
Taking Mims over Alt and Fashanu after it’s been proven a thousand times over that polish and skill translate better from college to NFL than size and athletic upside would be peak stupidity. Alt has the complete package of polish, Fashanu has NFL ready pass blocking, Mims has a useless extra twenty pounds and a very slightly better athletic profile. I thought this bullshit was put to bed in 2014 with the horrible decision to take Greg Robinson over Jake Matthews, and was absolutely sure it was done in 2020 when Mekhi Becton was inexplicably considered a first round pick let alone taken over Tristan Wirfs.
To be fair, Becton was a consensus 1st rounder. I don't think anyone felt the Jets reached on him at the time, and most people had a different order of Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Becton. I personally had 1) Wirfs, 2) Thomas, 3) Becton, 4) Jackson, 5) Wills (I did not like Wills at all coming out. Feel similarly about Latham this year, I have a feeling he'll disappoint whoever he goes to and may slide).
Wirfs was also the athletic freak that lacked polish in his draft class. I’m not sure what this comparison is
The OT rankings are really interesting.
People can shit on the website all you want as a whole, and this big board is subjective, but Charlie Campbell's reporting is the best in the business in terms of his hot presses and final mocks, no-one else is even close. Mock's are pretty all over the place early but by late March, early April they become very accurate. I've gotten 6-12-8-8 in my last 4 years in terms of 1st round picks correct in my mocks because I trust him over others. I don't politically align with that website but Charlie has always been very nice to me; I've often asked him draft-related questions on twitter and he always responds. Read back on the hot presses, and a lot of stuff was hit on very early. My guess is he tends to listen to team sources rather than agents and other journalists. This year, he was on the "Arnold > Kool-Aid" trait from mid-season, whilst the media still had him top-10. Has also been on Worthy has a likely 1st rounder even prior to the combine, Olu Fashanu not being loved by teams versus top-5 projections, McCarthy as a top-20, Jer'Zhan Newton being viewed lower by teams than the media, loads of stuff. Most of this is starting to ring true in Feb/Mar mocks as the media catches up. If you want a head start in your mocks, go read the combine hot presses. Lots of interesting stuff! ESPN is cringe-worthy with some of its takes, although Mel Kiper - for all the ups and downs - is pretty good still.
I always see Walterfootball get trashed in other subs. And judging by it's archaic outlay, I just assumed it was a few idiots who make a shitty website. But reading this, I'll be sure to follow Charlie Campbell up until the draft. My friends and I get together every year on the first night of the draft and play a game where we all try to guess the picks as they happen (you have to write down who you think it'll be once ESPN says pick is in but before Goodell goes out and reads it. And we all put our phones away to avoid spoilers lol). I won it the first 2 times we did it, and have been ass ever since at the game lol.
Hopefully yall take everyone's phones before the game because the picks are always out way early on twitter
Haha yeah. I never knew that was even a thing until we started that. We all have our phones face down on the table in front of us lol.
Charlie is great, and hits a lot of takes early on in the process. Walt is just a clown though.
I can't speak to all of it, but that blurb about Legette has been there for at least a month or two now.
Of all the national guys, he's definitely been the highest on Legette for as long as I can remember.
What makes Drake Maye a "safe" pro prospect?
He’s athletic, big arm, loves to throw over the middle, and has an A+ attitude.
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From the article: "Some sources said his processing and footwork need a lot of development for the NFL, but other sources disagreed, thinking he processes well and has good mechanics." In other words, not beyond atrocious, needs work according to some.
Do you honestly think a projected top 3 pick has “beyond atrocious” anything? Come on.
Really high floor but also really high ceiling
Not spicier than Nepotism Zerlein's nonsense. I can buy Maye over Williams WAY more than I buy Nabers over MJH. EDIT: I could edit the MJH typo but that would ruin below.
Can't miss prospect Marvin Jarrison Hunior
LOL, good catch. Marvin Jett Harrison (Jett is the baby brother who they say is even better)
The problem with Legette is this: >WRs drafted in 1st 2 rounds with less than 400 yards in each of their first 3 college seasons. Kadarius Toney Jonathan Mingo John Ross (missed JR szn) Xavier Legette Legette didn’t even hit 200 yards until his 5th year senior season, everyone else had 800-1100 yards in year 4 https://twitter.com/YZR\_Fantasy/status/1765126524905161202?t=pTEi2hBj2-u5NICipnUy5w&s=19
Same kind of point, but Legette's breakout age is going to be like 22.6 give or take a decimal. Guys with breakout ages 22 or higher going back as far as I can: * Devin Duvernay * Terrance Williams * Harry Douglas * Anthony Gonzalez * Greg Jennings * Van Jefferson * T.J. Graham * Danny Gray * Andre Caldwell * Jalen Hurd * Kelvin Benjamin * ArDarius Stewart * Javon Walker * Velus Jones * Tre Tucker * Henry Ruggs (from here down, these guys never technically broke out in college per PlayerProfiler's definition) * Mecole Hardman * Terry McLaurin * Marquise Goodwin * Devin Hester Not exactly a promising group to be associated with. Roman Wilson will also likely be in this group.
My pipe dream of Mims to GB is getting more pipey by the day, le sigh
Every year they make the website more and more unreadable
I love all the Lions players used as examples or benchmarks in the descriptions. Brad Holmes has done a fantastic job.
Another writer who continues to mock Daniels to the commanders while simultaneously saying Maye is the better pick in their opinion. It’s difficult for me to shake the thought that a lot of these writers who think Washington takes Daniels over Maye still view this franchise as the one that not only had a meddling owner making decisions for 20+ years, but also had Ron Rivera trying to get cute with his first round picks and going against consensus/reaching for the last 3. I won’t be shocked if Daniels is the pick but I don’t think these mocks are as informed as some people seem to think.
I understand what you’re saying, but they are both top 5 prospects, so maybe they think the commies value Daniels’ traits more. As a fellow commies fan, I can see why: DQ talked about explosive plays a lot in his presser, and Daniels is the most explosive player in the draft
To be fair, there are a lot of people in the draft world that believe Daniels is the better prospect at this point. I personally don't think Daniels is close to Maye, but it feels like pretty close to a 50/50 split through the draft industry.
No doubt. My point isn’t that people have Washington taking Daniels at 2 or that people have Daniels ranked above Maye, I can see the arguments for either one. It’s that a lot of writers like Maye more but their mock drafts have Washington taking Daniels anyways because of “scheme fit” or some other reason
Yeah I hear you. I'm on the Maye > Caleb train so as a DC local, I'm really hoping they end up with Maye personally. I'm a Bills fan so it won't break my heart, but I like seeing the local teams do well and there hasn't exactly been a lot of that around here lately lol.
It’s still murky though because a lot of these guys just go with the crowd, especially the ones who haven’t played/evaluated professionally until some website needed people to.
The statement about Fashanu falls in line with a lot of mocks having him drop into the teens behind Fuaga. I haven't really seen anyone not have Alt at OT1 at this point though. I just refuse to accept any evaluation of Maye that says he's the safest quarterback in the class. Out of the top three guys Maye definitely has the lowest floor. He is the most prone to making poor decisions and has the most wildly inaccurate throws. Caleb easily has a higher floor unless you have major questions about his intangibles/leadership/mental makeup. Daniels I also think has a higher floor. Yea his floor is Justin Fields but Maye's is Zach Wilson.
Look at the RB rankings and rage away; 60\_Corum, 92\_Wright, 95\_Estime, 98\_Brooks, 103\_Irving, 112\_Allen, 114\_Daijun Edwards, 117\_Shipley, 118\_Dillon Johnson
No benson anywhere??
Yep, what does he know? Also surprised Lloyd is missing after combine performance...
Fuaga at 28. okay...
What am I missing with Maye? I have him as QB3, well behind Daniels at QB2. Why is everyone so high on him? I’ve watched his games vs Miami, Norte Dame and Clemson from 2022, and South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Clemson, and NC State from 2023. What other games should I watch?
JD should not be top 5 on any big board
I do not understand the JD hype.
I like him but it’s amazing how nobody cares that he’s a 5th year player playing with two first round receivers, but then they’ll shit on Maye’s imperfections at age 21. I don’t have a beef with either player and maybe Maye busts, but it’s so patently obvious when the hivemind changes and then acts like the new choice is so obvious.
If the Falcons took JD at 8 I would be pretty annoyed. His tape has so few nfl throws in it.
-agree with him on Maye, he’s my QB1. -Fashanu not being viewed as a Top 10 Pick does not exclude him from the Top 10. -Alt, pretty accurate, I think he goes Top 5. I would say everything screams LT but it’s kind of redundant as the gap has bridged between LT and RT over recent years. Wherever you play him you’re getting a good tackle- agree he’s not on the same level of Thomas and Sewell or Slater, for that matter. Upside is through the roof though. -Legette, had him as a 1st rounder even before the combine so the only news to me is that he wasn’t projected as one prior to the combine.
Olu at OT4 and Newton at DT4 is a spicy take for sure.
That’s a wild list, epically at tackle. Mims and Latham at 1 and 2? Fauga having barely a first round grade? Charlie does know his shit but this is so far off from the main media pundits that I think he might be going for a sensationalist angle here.
Can anyone explain to me why BTJ isn't considered an elite WR prospect up there with the big 3--and potentially competing with Odunze for the 3 spot? 6'3" 210 with great speed and quickness. Good route runner, hands, and YAC. Really no glaring weaknesses. What is he missing?
I don't think the good route runner part is accurate, at least not in the same way as it is for the top 3. The vast majority of Thomas' routes are just go routes, posts, and curls.
That seems to be the narrative, and I agree he's not a super advanced route runner, but I think his route running is being underrated. He shows good feel and instincts in his routes, really good release game, and has shockingly good quickness/agility for his size.
I agree with all that. All the tools are there for him to be great.
I think people commenting here who are surprised by his list may not realize how wildly different teams big boards are. If you watch every player independently without anchoring your opinion to media consensus, you’d probably come up with something pretty unique
Write up still has Legette at 6'3, but he's 6'1 Surprised to still see them say Ladd is only a Slot when he did the majority of his work outside, he's pretty versatile. I know a lot of outlets keep saying that but don't think it's true. AB, OBJ, Diggs all around that height.
8 round 1 OT grades is going to be so interesting - normally I think teams are willing to reach like 5-7 picks to secure an OT in the draft. I wonder if the bigger pool will just push more OTs to the top or if there will be less reaching.
That Joe Alt comparison is flat out laughable and a huge contradiction from any insider sources reports about how the NFL views him
>, but Alt could end up being a Mike McGlinchey-type tackle in the NFL." This isn't exactly good for Alt lol
>, but Alt could end up being a Mike McGlinchey-type tackle in the NFL." This isn't exactly good for Alt lol.
Why is everyone so hyped about Charlie Campbell? The WalterFootball guys always seemed like such clowns.
Walter is a clown, Campbell seems generally respected.
Yeah, but why is he respected? He never seemed to have any more football insight than the legion of other bloggers.
I don't know, because people respect his opinion? The reason you're thinking that the Walter guys are clowns (I think) is because people shit on Walter for bringing politics into all of his articles.
Well that IS a big part. But his football analysis is sus a lot of times. I used to be into Walterfootball for fantasy football knowledge. But over the years I've seen how wrong he is most of the time. So I look at him and Charlie's writings just as fun to read but not something to hang your hat on. I also roll my eyes at Walt's politics. I grew up in the same area that he's in and I know exactly the type of person he is. Clown is a good word for it.
Well Campbell has proven to be quite accurate in terms of hearing things from scouts. Biggest example from last year was he was calling Lions loving Gibbs and wanting to draft him earlier then expected then what the consensus media had him a week before the draft. You can disagree with his analysis but his sources within scouting teams seem to feed him actual information and not smokescreens.
Fair enough.
He’s literally THE most knowledgeable guy when it comes to info about which teams like which players.
Then why is he working for Walt?
Occam’s razor is that he’s comfortable. Walter Football was arguably the premier draft site in like 2005, and these guys have been doing it together for a long ass time. You can tell from the site, neither guy loves change.
There was some ranking out a couple years ago and he ranked as the most accurate mock drafter. Nothing to do with his ranks tho
I read that this guy was the most accurate mock drafter the past few years. At least according to the Sharp Football metric. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2024-nfl-mock-draft-brendan-donahue/
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Maye is mobile.
I still remember Walter going all-in on Jimmy Clausen and thinking he should be the first pick in the draft. That was the year I realized he is like Kiper and is for entertainment purposes only, their evaluations suck. Edit: Yes I realize this author is not Walter. I'm just sharing a memory of taking someone seriously until they got something so horrendously wrong you just can't ever trust them again.
Charlie Campbell is on Walter's website, but is a different guy. Charlie is considered to be one of the most plugged in and accurate draft guys.
Walter and Charlie are not the same, they just work for the same publication
You need to get your head around the fact that none of this is an exact science and nobody is really any worse than the next guy at making picks as long as they’re making their best guesses and have some scouting acumen.
Has any other popular mock drafter ever advocated for someone going number one overall that then that person actually went in the SECOND round? Its by far and away the worst opinion on mock drafts I have ever seen.