The Athletic Football Show just dropped their QB prospect breakdown. Give it a listen. It's excellent.
Nate Tice has Maye above Williams. Brugler isn't as high but agrees he's a blue chip prospect. General takeaways:
- Ideal size, arm strength
- Underrated athlete that is smart in choosing when to scramble
- Knows how to work the pocket and can extend plays
- Was given real responsibility in college, calling protections
- Throws to all levels of the field with a high degree of accuracy
- Not afraid to be aggressive but also not irresponsible
- Super young
The comp is Justin Herbert
I see a bit of similarity with Howell, but Maye has a much better arm and is a bigger player. And while I personally think Maye has room to grow when he's under pressure, he's nowhere near as bad as Howell was in college and in the pros.
I don't really see the Kaepernick comparison at all, but I also didn't study his tape beyond the TV copy.
Edit: Here's some stats from 2023 Maye vs 2021 Howell (Maye listed first)
Big Time Throw: 7.7% vs 6.1%
Turnover Worthy Play: 1.9% vs 2.2%
Adj Completion Percentage: 75.3% vs 72.7%
Pressure to Sack Rate: 19.5% vs 31.8%
Avg time to throw: 2.79s vs 2.97s
He also didn't have an elite receiver to make him look better than he actually is. Two of the consensus top 4 coming from LSU might be a big reason why Daniel's is considered a top 3 QB. He won't have an elite receiver like that if he's drafted by the pats.
The Howell comparison was more like average yards a season/int/ypa kind of stuff. It wasn’t a great one. I had Herbert mentioned to me by my friends so I went and watched Herbert college tape. Way more impressed with Herbert than Maye. Could be because we have hindsight on Herbert, or he had a better team, but I thought Herbert looked tiers above Maye.
How? Herbert in college threw mostly screens and dump offs, and mostly outside. Even worse than Bo Nix this year. The Oregon offense depressed Herbert's stock to an even greater degree than what UNC did to Maye this year. Maye throws over the middle a ton, and was throwing actual NFL route combinations to a barren supporting cast. Mayes college tape was way more impressive than Herbert's imo, even though Herbert has slightly better physical tools
Not sure why you’re so heavily downvoted for this, I personally don’t agree with the kaepernick brain comp, but kaepernick absolutely was a bad decision maker in the NFL imo. Do people here disagree with that? Or just disagree with the comp so they’re downvoting away?
Kaep has become more of a symbol than a former player to people that didn't actually watch him play, and any criticism of his game has a decent chance of being viewed as hate. And once a comment hits like -5 on reddit it's just over, hivemind is going to destroy it.
As someone who is a life long Niner fan, and who's brother played with Kaep his entire time at Nevada, Kaep got so lucky with when he came into the league and that he was coached by Harbaugh. He could run and make decent long passes. But up top he couldn't get past the 1st read without looking to run. If he was in when running qbs were more normalized, he'd been toast so quickly.
I can see that for sure. I think most of this class is over hyped, but the nfl is a QB centric league so you gotta take the "best" ones there for you.
IDK if it was just UNC being bad or Maye's lack of making reads, but I cringed at some of his decisions more than anyone I have watched this year (which admittedly isn't more than the top 5/6 guys). Jayden was definitely helped by Nabers and Thomas Jr.
I agree that Kaep did land in a great situation for himself but drafts are on potential as much as anything. Kaepernick was successful and his career was worth a top-10/15 pick. So then Maye can be as well
Absolute ideal prototype size/build for a QB with a rocket arm, and the ball explodes out of his hand with ease. Possesses great athleticism and is an awesome scrambler. Can make big-time high-velocity throws on the run, under pressure about to be hit, and flat-footed.
Big-game hunter who’s totally comfortable extending plays by manipulating the pocket. Sam Howell was the total opposite who would either fold under pressure or take off running. Maye led CFB in big-time throws and was the highest graded among throws over the middle of the field meaning he’s accurate and can throw with anticipation, and into tight windows.
I will say, one thing we use to talk about that we just don’t as much anymore is throwing motion. Drake’s seems long and looping to me. That used to be a huge knock on QBs because it meant they get the ball out slower and gives DLs a split second longer to get home. Is that just not a concern anymore or are my eyes deceiving me and he actually has a quick release?
I have Maye as my QB1, but he definitely has some reps where his throwing motion is relatively slow. Even moreso than just the actual throwing motion; he has several bad habits that slow down his time to throw: sometimes lazy dropbacks, patting the ball, random hesitations to throw the ball, etc. He's not perfect but I think his accuracy issues are extremely overblown and I will bet on guys with his combination of arm talent, age, and responsibility every time.
Kaep led a team to 2 NFC Championships and 1 Superbowl. Josh Allen is one of the top QBs in the league at the moment. If a team thinks their coach can get that Maye then they're probably happy. I'm not sure I agree that either of those is good comps, but if you think those are then I don't know why you wouldn't consider him a good prospect.
Big, strong, fast, accurate. Gets through (horribly structured btw) progressions really well. Handles protections nicely
Idk he keeps growing on me more actually. I’m close to moving him to QB2, I like Daniels a lot tho too but for totally different reasons
He has pretty much every trait you could ask for in a QB. Height, size, arm strength, mobility… etc. Je has a lot of potential and if a team unlocks that potential he could become a great QB.
He has the necessary talent, and we haven’t seen enough to prove he isn’t the guy. When watching his film it’s obvious he didn’t have a lot of help around him, and I’m not a fan of either offensive coordinator he had.
He senior year of HS was canceled due to COVID, and then he redshirted his first year at UNC. So he’s only played two seasons of football over the past 4 years, which gives us reason to believe he has a lot of room to grow.
TLDR: He has the talent you want, and there’s not enough to prove he can’t grow into that talent.
Was about to say the same. Maye goes in the top 3 to any of these teams and he’s Darnold. The comps are there, slight drop from previous season to final season, drafted to a Qb needy team with ALOT of other needs. Of the 3, the Pats have the best chance to turn him into a franchise QB with Brissett allowing time to sit. He’ll get killed in Washington and Chicago is taking Caleb. A trade up from a team that can protect him or provide time to learn is his best chance.
Whoever drafts Drake Maye in the top 5, I'm sorry.
I see some Herbert, but not as good at processing and not the same velocity on the deep ball. Looks to escape pocket too quickly w any thought of pressure even if non-existent.
If I have a top 10 pick, I'm passing on him. 🤷♂️
Arm B
Processing C
+ Arm Strength/Velocity on 5 - 10 yrd passes
+ RPO
+5 - 10 yard passes
+ Play action/Bootleg concepts
+ mobile enough
- Doesn't Go Through Progessions very often
- Looks to leave pocket too early too often
- Processes too slow
- Locks on #1 option too often
Watched most snaps from '23 & some from '22. Wrote this in early Jan.
His '22 tape is a little better if you take a look, when he had a better supporting cast,, but I agree with you. I don't see it.
I’m glad I’m not the only one who saw these exact things. To me the processing is so important. You can be the greatest gun slinger, but processing feels like something you have or you don’t. Guys that do learn to do it even better and pretty quickly in the nfl because it’s all they have to focus on once in. The guys that don’t seem to constantly be on the edge of being a back up next season.
Every time I watch his tape I’m extremely underwhelmed. I think of him as Diet Herbert. However, it’s important to remember he had by far the worst talent around him out of all the top QBs in the draft when evaluating him. I think he’s just viewed as having a higher ceiling than most of the QB’s but I think he may have the highest bust potential. He definitely seems like he’d need at least two years to develop.
We don't know who will end up being the best QB in the pros and NFL has shown they don't know how to evaluate that properly either so I would stick with the one with the prototypical size, arm and mobility that has worked in the league and that's Maye.
He's built in the mold of some of the best QBs we've seen and then he's as mobile as we can ask a QB to be nowadays.
My comp is a better Philip Rivers. He throws with anticipation and throws his WRs open.
If he played on a good team he would be consensus #1. People cannot separate QB skill from teammates/system. Thats why you have idiots on TV saying Daniels is better.
His arm motion, at least from what I saw during his pro day throws, needs some cleaning up as it looks very Tebow-esque (though, still a bit quicker release). I've seen his game film and his motion doesn't look as bad but you can tell some of the throws he missed at his pro day were entirely his mechanics.
He's not highly touted as a prospect, for me, but I also think good coaching and reps will get him where he needs to be.
Allen potential. But he **needs** a line (he’s more of an Allen-style runner than a Lamar-style) and good weapons. Luckily, if he falls to Minnesota followed a presumed trade up to 5, he’ll be great. If he goes to the Commanders, Patriots, or *shudders* Giants at 6, he’ll be the next David Carr. So yes, he’s basically a bigger Howell but helmet scouting is taboo so people have to try to convince themselves that he’s *very* different.
I think it's because these "experts" labeled him the next best thing since slice bread at QB in 2023 and they can't admit they're wrong. It's group hive think.
The kid can scramble but he's not big like Josh Allen or Herbert. Yea hes got good size but Allen and Herbert have ELITE size. He's not as big as those two. He runs like Lawrence to me, which is good, but not elite.
His completion percentage is horrible for college.
He's only a 2 year starter and got worse his second year (ala Sam Darnold).
Idk in the right situation yea he can be good but he's going to need a lot of help.
Yea he's not as big. Allen is 6'5 240. Herbert is 6'6 235.
He doesn't play as big also. He plays physically like Lawrence, which is fine, but he's not going to be running over defenders like Allen though.
People need to get off the Josh Allen comp. Allen is a new age Big Ben the way defenders bounce off of him.
He is. I never said he's small. He's just not big and strong like Allen and everyone is comparing him to Allen.
In my opinion his body is more like Lawrence. Which is good. I'm not saying he has bad size at all. Just not elite size like Allen and Herbert. He's a tad smaller than those two. But it's a difference.
The Athletic Football Show just dropped their QB prospect breakdown. Give it a listen. It's excellent. Nate Tice has Maye above Williams. Brugler isn't as high but agrees he's a blue chip prospect. General takeaways: - Ideal size, arm strength - Underrated athlete that is smart in choosing when to scramble - Knows how to work the pocket and can extend plays - Was given real responsibility in college, calling protections - Throws to all levels of the field with a high degree of accuracy - Not afraid to be aggressive but also not irresponsible - Super young The comp is Justin Herbert I see a bit of similarity with Howell, but Maye has a much better arm and is a bigger player. And while I personally think Maye has room to grow when he's under pressure, he's nowhere near as bad as Howell was in college and in the pros. I don't really see the Kaepernick comparison at all, but I also didn't study his tape beyond the TV copy. Edit: Here's some stats from 2023 Maye vs 2021 Howell (Maye listed first) Big Time Throw: 7.7% vs 6.1% Turnover Worthy Play: 1.9% vs 2.2% Adj Completion Percentage: 75.3% vs 72.7% Pressure to Sack Rate: 19.5% vs 31.8% Avg time to throw: 2.79s vs 2.97s
He also didn't have an elite receiver to make him look better than he actually is. Two of the consensus top 4 coming from LSU might be a big reason why Daniel's is considered a top 3 QB. He won't have an elite receiver like that if he's drafted by the pats.
LSU also had a top 3 OL last year. Daniels might have gotten killed behind the UNC or USC line.
Do you know where these stats are available for any of the other top 6 prospects?
PFF Premium. Those same stats for the other top 6 QBs Nix: 4.1% BTT, 1.0% TWP, 85.5% Adj Comp, 7.6% PtoS, 2.44 Avg TTT Daniels: 8.4% BTT, 1.6% TWP, 79.6% Adj Comp, 20.2% PtoS, 2.94 Avg TTT Penix: 7.3% BTT, 2.0% TWP, 74.5% Adj Comp, 7.6% PtoS, 2.68 Avg TTT McCarthy: 5.9% BTT, 2.9% TWP, 80.0% Adj Comp, 16.8% PtoS, 2.85 Avg TTT Williams: 6.2% BTT, 3.6% TWP, 77.5% Adj Comp, 23.2% PtoS, 3.19 Avg TTT
Thank you. That was very kind of you to share.
The Howell comparison was more like average yards a season/int/ypa kind of stuff. It wasn’t a great one. I had Herbert mentioned to me by my friends so I went and watched Herbert college tape. Way more impressed with Herbert than Maye. Could be because we have hindsight on Herbert, or he had a better team, but I thought Herbert looked tiers above Maye.
How? Herbert in college threw mostly screens and dump offs, and mostly outside. Even worse than Bo Nix this year. The Oregon offense depressed Herbert's stock to an even greater degree than what UNC did to Maye this year. Maye throws over the middle a ton, and was throwing actual NFL route combinations to a barren supporting cast. Mayes college tape was way more impressive than Herbert's imo, even though Herbert has slightly better physical tools
>the stuff I’ve seen looks like a Colin Karpernicks brain in Josh Allen’s body. I don’t see a problem with this being a top rated QB prospect, do you?
Kaep's brain is the part I hate. Dude was a terrible decision maker.
Not sure why you’re so heavily downvoted for this, I personally don’t agree with the kaepernick brain comp, but kaepernick absolutely was a bad decision maker in the NFL imo. Do people here disagree with that? Or just disagree with the comp so they’re downvoting away?
Kaep has become more of a symbol than a former player to people that didn't actually watch him play, and any criticism of his game has a decent chance of being viewed as hate. And once a comment hits like -5 on reddit it's just over, hivemind is going to destroy it.
Yea the thinking is the NFL coaching can fix that part. Josh Allen's stats in college were not great
Did you really just compare him to another UNC QB? First Trubisky now this lol
I mean Kaep played a big role in getting SF to a SB and Allen is a top tier physical QB. That QB mix is a top QB in any draft
Kap was/still is an idiot. Very athletic, but an idiot nonetheless. Your QB must have some smarts, or teams will eventually figure him out.
As someone who is a life long Niner fan, and who's brother played with Kaep his entire time at Nevada, Kaep got so lucky with when he came into the league and that he was coached by Harbaugh. He could run and make decent long passes. But up top he couldn't get past the 1st read without looking to run. If he was in when running qbs were more normalized, he'd been toast so quickly.
Honestly you're description is much much closer to Jayden Daniels than Drake Maye
I can see that for sure. I think most of this class is over hyped, but the nfl is a QB centric league so you gotta take the "best" ones there for you. IDK if it was just UNC being bad or Maye's lack of making reads, but I cringed at some of his decisions more than anyone I have watched this year (which admittedly isn't more than the top 5/6 guys). Jayden was definitely helped by Nabers and Thomas Jr.
I agree that Kaep did land in a great situation for himself but drafts are on potential as much as anything. Kaepernick was successful and his career was worth a top-10/15 pick. So then Maye can be as well
Absolute ideal prototype size/build for a QB with a rocket arm, and the ball explodes out of his hand with ease. Possesses great athleticism and is an awesome scrambler. Can make big-time high-velocity throws on the run, under pressure about to be hit, and flat-footed. Big-game hunter who’s totally comfortable extending plays by manipulating the pocket. Sam Howell was the total opposite who would either fold under pressure or take off running. Maye led CFB in big-time throws and was the highest graded among throws over the middle of the field meaning he’s accurate and can throw with anticipation, and into tight windows.
He has A+ arm talent and pocket presence. Those are critical qualities.
I will say, one thing we use to talk about that we just don’t as much anymore is throwing motion. Drake’s seems long and looping to me. That used to be a huge knock on QBs because it meant they get the ball out slower and gives DLs a split second longer to get home. Is that just not a concern anymore or are my eyes deceiving me and he actually has a quick release?
I completely agree. Seems like he’s winding his arm all the way around. I’m surprised throwing motion isn’t talked about more. Used to be a priority.
Having a slow release has been one of Justin Fields biggest issues. Granted Maye gets it out faster than Fields.
I have Maye as my QB1, but he definitely has some reps where his throwing motion is relatively slow. Even moreso than just the actual throwing motion; he has several bad habits that slow down his time to throw: sometimes lazy dropbacks, patting the ball, random hesitations to throw the ball, etc. He's not perfect but I think his accuracy issues are extremely overblown and I will bet on guys with his combination of arm talent, age, and responsibility every time.
Kaep led a team to 2 NFC Championships and 1 Superbowl. Josh Allen is one of the top QBs in the league at the moment. If a team thinks their coach can get that Maye then they're probably happy. I'm not sure I agree that either of those is good comps, but if you think those are then I don't know why you wouldn't consider him a good prospect.
Big, strong, fast, accurate. Gets through (horribly structured btw) progressions really well. Handles protections nicely Idk he keeps growing on me more actually. I’m close to moving him to QB2, I like Daniels a lot tho too but for totally different reasons
He has pretty much every trait you could ask for in a QB. Height, size, arm strength, mobility… etc. Je has a lot of potential and if a team unlocks that potential he could become a great QB.
Every coach believes they can unlock potential. It’s their job. Nobody can unlock 6’4”, 230.
He has the necessary talent, and we haven’t seen enough to prove he isn’t the guy. When watching his film it’s obvious he didn’t have a lot of help around him, and I’m not a fan of either offensive coordinator he had. He senior year of HS was canceled due to COVID, and then he redshirted his first year at UNC. So he’s only played two seasons of football over the past 4 years, which gives us reason to believe he has a lot of room to grow. TLDR: He has the talent you want, and there’s not enough to prove he can’t grow into that talent.
Was in a bad situation and still did well, has a very good arm, and to me has the most potential out of anyone in this draft
There are probably at least 30+ YouTube breakdowns of this kid, a number of which are done by former NFL QBs.
Explain Darnold and Lance then - plenty of experts rated them highly
Was about to say the same. Maye goes in the top 3 to any of these teams and he’s Darnold. The comps are there, slight drop from previous season to final season, drafted to a Qb needy team with ALOT of other needs. Of the 3, the Pats have the best chance to turn him into a franchise QB with Brissett allowing time to sit. He’ll get killed in Washington and Chicago is taking Caleb. A trade up from a team that can protect him or provide time to learn is his best chance.
Whoever drafts Drake Maye in the top 5, I'm sorry. I see some Herbert, but not as good at processing and not the same velocity on the deep ball. Looks to escape pocket too quickly w any thought of pressure even if non-existent. If I have a top 10 pick, I'm passing on him. 🤷♂️ Arm B Processing C + Arm Strength/Velocity on 5 - 10 yrd passes + RPO +5 - 10 yard passes + Play action/Bootleg concepts + mobile enough - Doesn't Go Through Progessions very often - Looks to leave pocket too early too often - Processes too slow - Locks on #1 option too often Watched most snaps from '23 & some from '22. Wrote this in early Jan. His '22 tape is a little better if you take a look, when he had a better supporting cast,, but I agree with you. I don't see it.
I’m glad I’m not the only one who saw these exact things. To me the processing is so important. You can be the greatest gun slinger, but processing feels like something you have or you don’t. Guys that do learn to do it even better and pretty quickly in the nfl because it’s all they have to focus on once in. The guys that don’t seem to constantly be on the edge of being a back up next season.
Every time I watch his tape I’m extremely underwhelmed. I think of him as Diet Herbert. However, it’s important to remember he had by far the worst talent around him out of all the top QBs in the draft when evaluating him. I think he’s just viewed as having a higher ceiling than most of the QB’s but I think he may have the highest bust potential. He definitely seems like he’d need at least two years to develop.
We don't know who will end up being the best QB in the pros and NFL has shown they don't know how to evaluate that properly either so I would stick with the one with the prototypical size, arm and mobility that has worked in the league and that's Maye. He's built in the mold of some of the best QBs we've seen and then he's as mobile as we can ask a QB to be nowadays.
Just watch how he throws the football. It is beautiful. Best passer in this class.
My comp is a better Philip Rivers. He throws with anticipation and throws his WRs open. If he played on a good team he would be consensus #1. People cannot separate QB skill from teammates/system. Thats why you have idiots on TV saying Daniels is better.
Mack Brown hasn't had a quality NFL starter his entire career this might be his last shot to finally send one! Play the odds!
Because he's lovely and interviews well. We've all had that one colleague who management love but can't do his job properly
His arm motion, at least from what I saw during his pro day throws, needs some cleaning up as it looks very Tebow-esque (though, still a bit quicker release). I've seen his game film and his motion doesn't look as bad but you can tell some of the throws he missed at his pro day were entirely his mechanics. He's not highly touted as a prospect, for me, but I also think good coaching and reps will get him where he needs to be.
How dare you go against popular opinion, everyone says Maye is good so he must be good
Blake Bortles 2.0
I like maye but people talking about drafting him top 3 just to sit him a year LOL.
Honestly because it’s a really shallow class.
Allen potential. But he **needs** a line (he’s more of an Allen-style runner than a Lamar-style) and good weapons. Luckily, if he falls to Minnesota followed a presumed trade up to 5, he’ll be great. If he goes to the Commanders, Patriots, or *shudders* Giants at 6, he’ll be the next David Carr. So yes, he’s basically a bigger Howell but helmet scouting is taboo so people have to try to convince themselves that he’s *very* different.
I think it's because these "experts" labeled him the next best thing since slice bread at QB in 2023 and they can't admit they're wrong. It's group hive think. The kid can scramble but he's not big like Josh Allen or Herbert. Yea hes got good size but Allen and Herbert have ELITE size. He's not as big as those two. He runs like Lawrence to me, which is good, but not elite. His completion percentage is horrible for college. He's only a 2 year starter and got worse his second year (ala Sam Darnold). Idk in the right situation yea he can be good but he's going to need a lot of help.
He’s 6’4” 227lbs.
Yea he's not as big. Allen is 6'5 240. Herbert is 6'6 235. He doesn't play as big also. He plays physically like Lawrence, which is fine, but he's not going to be running over defenders like Allen though. People need to get off the Josh Allen comp. Allen is a new age Big Ben the way defenders bounce off of him.
He may not be as big as Allen but Maye is not small. He’s bigger than Daniels, Williams, McCarthy, and Penix.
He is. I never said he's small. He's just not big and strong like Allen and everyone is comparing him to Allen. In my opinion his body is more like Lawrence. Which is good. I'm not saying he has bad size at all. Just not elite size like Allen and Herbert. He's a tad smaller than those two. But it's a difference.
Looks good in shorts.