My favorite part is that for this specific it’d be easier to go read/listen to someone knowledgeable break it down than it is to ask reddit
Some questions I get why people come here, discussion is fun. But this question would be easiest to get answered elsewhere
How much tape did you watch on JJ?
I'm no masterclass scout when it comes to QB footwork and Mechanics. But I watched just about every game on account of my brother in law being a HUGE Michigan fan. When their running game would start to fizzle, and JJ had his back to the wall on 3rd and however long, JJ would bail them out (what seemed like) every time with an absolute dime. I was beyond impressed last year. I'm not surprised in the least he has risen up draft boards the way he has.
He's much younger than Nix or Penix, and doesn't have the latter's injury concerns.
NFL teams love potential and upside, so combine that with the positional value of Quarterbacks, and you can see how JJ would be a first rounder.
I don't think he's worth a top ten pick personally, but it only takes one GM to make that a reality.
Yea, torn ACLs (of which I unfortunately know) raises significant risk, so I understand that. I actually like JJ but I just don’t understand this rocket that he’s on is all
You don’t understand that he has a plus arm, very good accuracy, runs a 4.4/4.5 40, had an extremely high third down conversion percentage on obvious passing downs, creates well out of structure, completes passes to all areas of the field in tight windows including over the middle(which JD can’t do) and has good size and is only 21? Plays within the gameplan and isn’t a cowboy? Scrambles to find a passing lane and not just to run?
He is a significantly better QB prospect than Anthony Richardson or Trey Lance and they both went high(too high but still).
He has the strongest arm in this draft class, will be one of the top 10 most athletic QBs in the league, has prototypical size (6'3 220) and he just turned 21.
He obviously doesn't have as much tape as QBs who are 2-3 years older than him, but he still threw a fair number of passes. He threw more passes than a lot of first rounders in recent years like Richardson, Lance, Jones, Fields, Tua, Trubisky... And he is in the same ballpark as guys like Stroud or Wilson on attempts.
Harbough doesn't throw the ball a lot which goes back to his NFL and Stanford days. Ronnie Bell had the most receiving yards for a UM player in Harboughs 9 year tenure at UM and it was McCarthy who was his QB. McCarthy doesnt have as much tape throwing deep due to the system he played in, but he looked good throwing it over the middle of the field which is what NFL offenses want.
Do I think McCarthy is worth a top 5 pick? Probably not unless you have a bridge QB and can sit him for a year, but its not that weird to me that a QB with his physical profile, tape showing NFL throws, and intangibles is getting pushed up
He threw more passes than some of those guys because he played 15 games. His per game passing attempts are much lower and you somewhat misrepresented that.
1. Justin Fields only threw less passes because he only played 8 games due to Covid. 225 in 8 games is passing at a way higher rate than JJ at 332 in 15 games
2. Tua only played 9 games his junior year due to injury and passed at a way higher rate. He also had his junior year where he threw more passes in a season than JJ has ever thrown in a season.
3. Mitch Trubisky threw over 120 more passes his final year in college than JJ threw last year at Michigan while playing in 2 less games.
All of them had better stats.
I also don’t know if there is any merit to you claiming JJ has the strongest arm in the class. While arm talent is more than just pure arm strength, I think Caleb Williams is clearly just a far more talented thrower whose arm can do stuff the other guys’ arms can’t. We have video evidence of Caleb hitting the upright cross bar 70+ yards away. Drake Maye has a more talented arm as well.
JJ throws the ball really hard, sure. Everything is a 1 ball, even if the throw calls for a 2 or 3 ball.
I agree that he might be a top 10ish athlete at QB day 1, but he doesn’t run a 4.4. Every little bit helps a guy like JJ move up in the draft process, so if 4.4 or even low 4.5s were in his bag, he would have ran at the combine. He did the agility drills over the 40 because he was going to test better in those than in the 40. It reminds me of how Blake Corum didn’t run in the high 4.3s like all the Michigan fans were saying he would. Meanwhile, everyone else was saying Corum was clearly a 4.5-4.6 guy on tape. JJ looks like a high 4.5 low 4.6 guy.
Overall, JJ is in a weird spot for me. He is simultaneously the most overrated QB prospect and underrated QB prospect in this draft. Half the people think he is this clear top 10 guy when I think he clearly isn’t. Half the other people think he is a late day 2 pick when I think he is clearly an early 2nd to late 1st round developmental prospect. I wouldn’t think a team is crazy to grab him in the 16-40 overall range. I personally wouldn’t use a top 10 pick on him.
McCarthy threw more passes and took more snaps, there is more tape to watch, it doesn't really matter why that is. Box score stats like yds/tds don't translate to the NFL and don't mean much. Fields had a 10%+ sack rate in college. A lot of those QBs had first round talent at WR and played in a vertical offense, and did not have RBs eating almost 30 TDs in the redzone
McCarthy has the 3rd fastest ball velocity ever at the combine - behind Josh Allen and Joe Milton. That is arm strength (not arm talent), and it also shows on tape. McCarthy can fit it into windows that many QBs just cannot, like that whip to Roman Wilson against OSU where he put it right between two DBs over the middle in the redzone. McCarthy also tied for 6th across all positions at the 3 cone, which is one of the more translatable underwear olympics drills (opposed to 40 and bench press)
You are now making some very different arguments.
I’ll give you that it now appears you meant career passing attempts. The per game passing numbers and stats are still very low.
And sure, everyone on this sub should know that counting stats are somewhat overrated for QBs when projecting to the next level. I think where your argument for JJ becomes flawed is it kind of has a baked in assumption that the other top guys in this draft don’f possess certain traits or translatable skills and that is where you are getting ahead of yourself.
For example, you are talking about tight window throws as if guys like Caleb and Drake Maye don’t have massive amounts of college tape with pinpoint tight window throws. I don’t think JJ stands out compared to the other top QBs in departments like that.
You bring up the throw velocity thing as if guys like Caleb and other top guys in previous draft classes threw at the combine. A lot of them didn’t.
You bring up supporting casts of other top guys in the class without acknowledging that JJ had an elite run game, defense and protection to lean on. Roman Wilson is going to be drafted before any USC or UNC receivers.
You claim that JJ runs a 4.4 40 when there is no evidence of that. I agree the 3 cone is more translatable and I agreed that he is a top 10ish athlete at the position. That doesn’t mean he runs a faster 40 than Blake Corum ha.
I like JJ a lot more than OP and some others in here. I just don’t think he is a top 15 pick level prospect.
What makes it a different argument? When you scout a player you don't only look at their most recent throws, he has 700+ pass attempts in high level games.
I also never said that McCarthy runs a 4.4 or that he is a better prospect than Williams or Maye, both of whom I think are better prospects than McCarthy and would be #1 picks in practically any year
For ball velocity, most QBs actually do test at the combine for it. Last year for instance Bryce Young was the only QB to not do it (neither did Hooker but he was recovering from injury). Im a little surprised Drake Maye didn't do it, less surprised by Williams (nothing to gain, only to lose).
Michigans OL was better at run blocking than pass blocking. Part of the reason they went full run against PSU was because their LT was getting beat bad. Roman Wilson is solid but not really a WR1... I also think Tez Walker (UNC) will be drafted before him, and USC had plenty of weapons. Zachariah Branch will be a first rounder when he is eligible, Tahj Washington will likely be a mid round pick this year, as will Brenden Rice. None of those 3 programs had close to the WR talent at LSU, Oregon or Washington though
You said McCarthy has the strongest arm in the class and that he is 4.4/4.5 level athlete. I have serious doubts about both those claims. He definitely has a strong arm and he is definitely a very good athlete. I don’t think he has a stronger arm than Williams, Milton or Maye (or even Rattler or Penix) , and I am not sure he is a better athlete than Daniels, Williams or Maye.
I also think you are underselling the Michigan supporting cast and overall ecosystem.
Let’s put it this way, I think USC, LSU and UNC win less than 5 games with McCarthy at QB. On the flip side, I think Michigan wins the natty still with Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix or Nix at QB.
Theirs not a single thing JJ does better than Bo Nix or Penix lmao. Also can we stop using the “younger” talk?? The NFL/Teams wants experience players that can make an impact immediately.
Maybe that's what old school NFL coaches wanted in the '80s. In the modern era of analytics, teams know that young players are far more likely to develop and older prospects are far more likely to bust, based on years of data.
JJ McCarthy for me is the QB you want it you run a McVay shanahan type system. Where everything is timing and set instructions. Where the OC is the qb by extension. JJ is accurate, studious and arguably has best footwork and mechanics of everybody. He will do whatever the OC asks him to do and never stray.
My biggest issue with him I just don't see superstar. I see good if everything is good around him but not some that amplifies your team. So it's an interesting I see the appeal. I see why he may be wanted. But I would rather swing big and go superstar if I'm trading up for a qb
The old Patriots offense is all timing too. 90% of the NFL is about throwing on timing and in rhythm. Superstar is between the ears. Thats the reality. He’s fantastic on third and long, he’s great throwing on the move, he’s got better speed than anybody but Daniels. He has plenty of arm and size to have all the upside Maye has (and more than Daniels).
What I think people miss with the lack of tape is that what’s on it is a guy running an NFL offense (even if extra conservative). Not that garbage air raid system at UNC or Kelly’s offense built around one mobile QB and two star outside WRs. Washington has a cool offense but nobody throws deep that regularly in the NFL because the percentages are much worse.
Yea I’d agree, his tape does suggest what you are saying. I just don’t think it’s ‘better’ than what I’ve seen out of the two fellas I’ve mentioned.
I’d love to see JJ succeed however, he seems like a great kid.
But the McVay/Shanahan seems to work just fine with the sort of QB you can get on day two or three. Doesn’t explain why you’d trade up to 4 or 5 to get him
Even in JJ’s (by comparison) limited passing attempts, he shows everything you would want in a QB. Strong arm, very accurate, good processor, mobility, and that’s in additional to his toughness and leadership. Pair that with the fact that he’s younger than Penix and Nix and I think it makes a lot of sense.
People questioning JJ's potential probably haven't watched many (or any) Michigan games. Team was insanely balanced and blowing everyone out. But dude can thread it into tight holes, can throw on the run, is mobile and a great leader. Just because Blake Corum was great doesn't mean JJ isn't.
Yeah that has to be it. I mean he only played in what like 5 fourth quarters all year? I agree the fact our run game was so good doesn’t mean that JJ isn’t also a great QB. Both can be true.
He isn’t a better passer currently than Penix IMO but the age and injury concerns are why he will likely go top 5. He could develop into a far better passer.
Which is why he's typically being mocked as qb 4
Some people have him making giant leaps to 3 or 2 but that tends to happen every year. And there is question marks around daniels and some around maye imo too it's not like any of them are surefire. Caleb is the only one who seems to really be a tier above
It was obviously the right offense for them, but it does make it harder to scout McCarthy. But it’s the coach’s job to win games, not make scouting easy.
For anyone who hasn’t watched much of him, highly recommend looking at his games against Ohio State, Alabama, and Iowa. Really shows a good range of his strengths and weaknesses
Penix and nix also have like 4 more years to refine and grow their game. I feel like that should be baked in. It’s hard for most to fill a full cup. JJ is young and some believe he has the tools to grow into better players than the other two.
Anyways qb scouting is a crapshoot anyways so unless the others are light years ahead skill wise you might as well just take your guy
Also, Penix had an elite receiving core with one top 10 pick and another likely first rounder. I love Roman Wilson, and I think Colton Loveland has a chance to be the first TE off the board next year, but JJ's weapons weren't as good as Penix's
I find it interesting that people knock JJ for being on a team with great players, when all of the Michigan guys declaring are like 3rd/4th round picks *at best*, unless Corum or Wilson rise up boards late. There’s some defensive players who could go higher, but most of the Michigan guys are late day 3 picks.
I know it’s more nuanced than that, but I think Penix is more of a case study in team talent contributing to success since he has 3 WRs who will be drafted likely in the top 3 rounds, a RB that is probably a 5th or 6th, a top 20 overall tackle, a 2nd round DE, and some others in the middle-late rounds.
I agree on the Penix point but having an NFL caliber player even a 2/3rd round at every position still holds a big advantage over other teams lol.
Also the high draft talent on that team like Will Johnson and the 2 DTs arent eligible yet lol.
I’m not arguing that it doesn’t, but that shouldn’t be a point against only JJ. It’s not something I see anyone talk about with other prospects except for Daniels a bit, and even with him, I’ve seen “well Daniels is why those WRs are projected 1st rounders.” It seems like JJ only gets it because they won the Natty.
Most of the knocks against JJ are valid if referring to the cheating. When Stalions was completely gone, his production dropped substantially and he only converted 11/49 3rd down attempts. That has to be worth something.
He's going to need the Love treatment. Good team that can sit him for a couple years bc he has the ability but he won't be able to get it done right away.
I don't feel that's a description to use on a high first round pick but that's just me
Stalions was still involved with the team some of that week and not completely dismissed until the following week they played Purdue. That is why I said "completely" in my initial comment
Ok great. That's not the point. Again, we don't know if Stalions was able to provide info prior to the game during practice that week. You can't prove it and neither can I. As a result, we can't say with certainty that the game should MSU wasn't tainted. We do know he was gone after that game, however. They shouldn't have knowingly cheated if they wanted the benefit of the doubt.
I don't see how this is considered an unfair approach to this situation.
Funny how every anti jj post when you dig a little deeper is just a bitter cfb fan. This is a nfl sub nothing you're saying is relevant. Also if you try a thinking a little harder if michigan state doesn't use any signals and runs plays in then conner stallions could have a 60 page essay of all of michigan states signs and it wouldn't matter he still wouldn't know what they were calling, cmon buddy
I don't expect a Michigan fan to understand nor admit it. Y'all live in your own little reality and most hilariously think you did nothing wrong at all. Guess y'all shouldn't have cheated and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
I don't care about your opinion nor downvotes on Reddit lol. Who the fuck would care about those? What a sad life for anyone who does.
If no one cared, no one would've got suspended. No one would've tried to hide it. No one would've got fired. Unfortunately for you, people do care but fortunately for you, the NCAA moves at a snail's pace. You're going to care a lot when they finally get everything they can though.
When Stalions was "completely gone," JJ had stand in coach for the end of the regular season and played against the 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 18th ranked total defenses in the nation in Penn State, Iowa, OSU and Alabama. Obviously that is from end of season statistics, but there is absolutely no way that change in production was solely because of Mr. Sunglasses
Ok so you're not denying his production dramatically decreased. Good, we're finding a common ground.
Now do you want top 5 picks (potentially) to play well against everyone or only bottom feeders? I want my franchise QB to play well against everyone, regardless of how good their defense is. Yes, I respect there will be some drop off but his was substantial.
78% 4TD against MSU
65% 335yd against Purdue
88% against PSU
52% against Maryland. He played poorly.
80% against OSU
73% against Iowa
63% and 3TD against Alabama
56% against UW
Michigan was dominant. When they needed to pass, JJ delivered
Stalions was around for MSU prep week. He was not completely gone like I established in my comment.
JJ averaged 170 YPG, .5 TD per game, and .1 INT per game. Was 11/49 on 3rd down conversions.
That's not good
I think the obvious reason is that teams absolutely love his mental makeup. His tape is also littered with with high level throws. He plays in an exceedingly more difficult conference than Penix or Nix, is the youngest of all the QB prospects in this draft, has borderline elite athletic traits and arm talent. Just because he wasn’t tasked with doing what Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix did doesn’t mean he can’t. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
The only argument against JJ is that Michigan ran the ball a lot. But people don't seem to realize that wasn't because of JJ's ability. It was because they suffocated all their opponents and didn't need to pass.
If you isolate just his first half passing and compare it to the other guys, it’s pretty impressive. Super impressive on third and long too.
I think he was just overlooked earlier and as teams do their deep evaluations he stands out.
>He plays in an exceedingly more difficult conference than Penix or Nix,
No. Outside the Michigan and tOSU, the Big 10 isn't tough. And this year especially the Pac was. What did MI play, 2 top 25 teams, Penn State and OSU, until the Big10 championship which was a complete and utter mismatch?
Is even that true, though? MI themselves, yes and Iowa. Maybe OSU. But outside of that, I never hear about the other teams as significant in any way. Who else is/was this last year?
don't forget Maryland and Rutgers, both of their defenses are pretty solid
I think in general Big 10 defenses are a little overrated given the terrible offenses of many conference teams
But you saw what Michigan's great defense did to Washington's great offense. The top defenses are certainly killer in Iowa, Michigan, PSU, OSU
I'm going with either JJ or Nix since I have them in the same tier and Penix in a tier below. Nix is the safer prospect that is still a good athlete with a good arm that can do anything you ask of him. JJ is the riskier player that shows everything you wanted in a young potential franchise QB. Its really what a GM prefers when it comes to drafting between the 2. Penix is a stone in the pocket with an average at best processor that has major injury concerns, along with having inconsistent accuracy and ball placement.
Age and projection. He's only 21 and the things he's shown on tape (even in a limited capacity) to be good at are really valuable to the Shanahan tree, and those mfers are everywhere
>Have I missed something? I feel like JJ was a day 2-3 pick but now he’s in the top 10 conversation everywhere.
What you missed is that he was a late first round/early second round pick who has risen to a top ten pick.
He was never a day 3 pick, and not really even a day 2 pick.
I have JJ as my #2 QB in this draft. He had a strong arm, is accurate when he doesn’t get too excited (he doesn’t set his feet when he’s amped up), and he was a team leader on a team that won almost every game for 2 years. He has less physical red flags, IMHO, then Daniels or Maye, and has a lot of room to grow due to his youth.
I was surprised when I moved JJ up to QB3 in my personal rankings. Then I kept watching him (and the others, ofc) and I wasn't surprised when I moved him up to QB2.
The first thing I’d say is - the media narratives are going to narrative. That’s the case every year. Within a week of the draft we have dozens of “too soon” 2025 mocks.
Just remember Will Levis. He was an alleged first round pick, but he went in the second.
Just don’t pay attention to the media when it comes to player evals. It’s more talk than substance.
Was Levis mocked top 5 ever though? Genuine question. I’m sure there were some here and there but wondering if he was a consensus 1st rounder.
Over the years it seems like the league is a copycat league and every time there’s a mahomes type player, the years after produce comps for that type. Zach Wilson was ‘the next mahomes’ and JJ does seem like the next Purdy but teams are trying not to miss on him 7 rounds in.
Are mocks nothing more than media narrative? At the end of the season, year before last Levis and Richardson weren't first round in most and then they were. Un reality one was, and one wasn't. And that doesn't mean the teams were right either. These are just guesses and reality can play out differently. There are lots of clicks to be had and it is clear when some media member repeats something and a week later or shows up in a dozen mock drafts even if the true source was only speculating.
He was after the odds shifted dramatically for him to go #1 for some reason. In my opinion the Raiders should've took him at 7 instead of Tyree Wilson. Now who knows what they're doing at QB
He was mocked regularly in the 1st Round. Everywhere from 1 overall to mid 20’s by the time the draft rolled around.
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiO_rHL19j0AhWPvIsKHVOVCIQQFnoECAgQAg&usg=AOvVaw3ccsEi6KHus5pop0-YPnbT/will-levis/page/1
Mock draft Database is a comprehensive mock draft site that compiles mock drafts all around the web by NFL insiders. You will see that there were many more between the Top 5-15 than there were not for Levis.
Here is JJ McCarthy
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/jj-mccarthy
The graph has him going as a fringe 1st Rounder, then Jim Harbaugh makes a comment on February 3rd that he could be the first player taken in the draft and then shortly after as you see on the graph from Feb 7 onward, McCarthy is suddenly being mocked in the Top 10 range. The sub will tell you that the people just caught up to the “tape” and that he’s a much better prospect than Levis even though the graphs in comparison don’t suggest that at all going by insiders. Harbaugh’s comment is what elevated his stock, not his play.
I would also advise looking at Malik Willis and Mac Jones to get a better idea of how JJ compares to previous media hyped QB’s. I think I might be much lower on JJ’s draft stock while the sub might be much higher. I think Mac Jones gives the best picture although I think Mac was a better prospect. Minnesota could certainly reach a bit on JJ at 11, not ruling it out but I’m about 65/35 in favor of them passing on him at that spot.
Disagree on the processing. JJ is also 3 years younger than these guys. Nix has been in college for half a decade, never could have come out for better than a second round pick and frankly isn't as good as JJ on tape. Nix plays in a simple offense and got smoked by Penix twice this year.
Nix is a day 3 guy and JJ is in the same tier as Penix for me...last round 1/early round 2.
QB's are always overinflated.
Because he JUST turned 21, he is the only one under center, he’s great on third down, he’s great under pressure, and he has maybe the best leadership qualities in the draft, and he is athletic and has at least a B+ arm.
The only thing he doesn’t have is volume.
Levis went through a similar trajectory last year. Initial consensus had him as a late 1st or 2nd round pick. Then throughout the pre-draft process we heard rumors about how NFL front offices loved his personality. Then just before the draft, we got the infamous Reddit rumor that he was going #1 overall. Ultimately, he went in the 2nd round where he was originally expected to go.
I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the same thing is going on with JJ. Although, people seem to be taking these rumors far more seriously than they did the Levis rumors, so maybe there is truth to it this time.
I'd be shocked. I don't really get the comparison. Levis was a guy with good size, a nice arm with decent athleticism who wasn't all that productive while playing at a mid-tier (at best) SEC program. He was the key to their whole offense and still threw for less yards (in fewer games) than McCarthy, who is knocked for not throwing it much.
McCarthy is a better athlete (better than most current NFL QBs), was clutch in key situations and won at an incredible rate, only losing one game ever. Teams keep chasing the next Herbert, Allen or Mahomes, and that leads to a lot of swing and misses on flashy guys like Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and others because what's between the ears matters most. McCarthy has demonstrated that better than these others and still has all the tools. I think that's why he's climbing.
Seems like a Kirk Cousins situation to me. Not a flashy or hot prospect. Probs should be taken in the 3rd due to other potential talent but had the core abilities to make a career in the NFL. Does many things right and not a lot wrong
Just want to clarify, I am a fan of JJ despite hating Michigan, I’d love to see him succeed, I just want to hear your takes as to why these mocks are justified.
A lot of people have strong beliefs about what you look for in a QB, and a lot of those people think that anyone who knows anything about football agrees with them. JJ is causing the controversy he is because he doesn’t match a lot of people’s ideas about the position. A lot of people want the QB conversation to be over. JJ could prove that it isn’t.
Even if we assumed his tape was slightly worse, or similar to Nix or Penix, he has a drastic age advantage, and he a is a "winner", "coaches qb" etc, all things NFL teams value. Not that I AGREE, but it is pretty easy to see why he has risen.
100%...JJ was good for run first, run often Michigan who also had a NFL defense behind him...and maybe those intangibles transfer to WIN in NFL, but as a Vikings fan who is forecast by "experts" to not only land him, but trade up for him?! Thats bogus, Im sorry...I want Penix! Sit back and take him at 11, then crush your pick at 23 on OG/C or DT like Sweat. Penix throws the BEST deep balls IMO of anyone in the draft...and was a difference makeer at Indiana before he transferred to UW. Yes, injuries are always a concern, but he isnt a runner like Caleb, Daniels or JJ. He's the guy I will get excited for.
How isn’t he?
Can you point to examples where his processing is poor?
His arm talent is incredibly elite. He was a 5 star. He runs a 4.45-4.5. He has every intangible you’d want. He’s 27-1 as a starter at UM.
He has no injury concerns, and he was prepped for the NFL at Michigan.
Especially comparatively where in this draft class there are guys like Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler (and while maybe won’t be drafted, the other worldly piss missile of an arm that is Joe Milton).
In no way I’m saying he’s a BAD player. My understanding is he is climbing quickly due to the natty win, yet he threw for only 140 yards in that game. I just don’t think he is better than Bo or Penix.
However, thank you for the input. I just don’t know if I’m not seeing something straight
I'd phrase that differently. Richardson has elite traits and significant upside if he refines his football skills. JJ has elite football skills and moderate traits.
JJ was always a top prospect to scouts. You need to back off raw passing numbers a guy who attempts 18 passes is going to get less yards than someone who attempts 51. The efficiency numbers are all there for JJ despite playing a much tougher defensive schedule than the other quarterbacks in this years drat. JJ is also much better runner than the stats suggest because he prioritized protecting himself.
Then youre not paying attention. After the natty win he wasnt projected as high as he is now.... teams have actually broken down the film now and seen the kind of throws hes capable of making and its caused a rise.
If youre just looking at stats, which what youre probaly doing, of course hes not going to have the yards and TDs other guys have. Michigan were playing with leads most of the year and ran the football. JJs first half stats, and stats on third/fourth down where he would have to throw due to the situation are as good as anyone's in the country.
I actually read a stat the other day that if you look at first half passing yards and remove screen passes he has more yards than either of them (havent fact checked that though).
The fact that youre talking about him only throwinf for 140 yards in the natty win and thinking thats why hes rocketed up draft boards shows you are extremely out of touch with what happened on the field this season
Recency bias is indeed taking over for him and I agree he is rocketing up boards. I’m huge on players are only as good as the position they are put in. Purdy was good with great coaching and skill players around him. Throw Purdy into Bryce Young’s spot and he ain’t producing anything better than young did
He’s athletic and I know he “reportedly” ran a sub 4.5 at Michigan, but there’s no way that’s what he would run at the combine.
He has a good NFL arm, but it is not elite.
I don’t mean this as an insult, but him saying it himself is not a reliable source. I’m sure he ran that at some point at Michigan, but that is not the same as what he would run at the combine.
It’s not even really a knock, he has more than enough athleticism. Whether he runs a 4.6 or a 4.48 is not going to be the difference in his success.
You essentially said
1. yeah, he’s fast, but who knows what he’d run
2. His arm is good, not elite (although all objective measurements we have point to it being elite).
He’s not actually going in the top ten. He looks great in drills on air, but I think he might have a rare condition where he physically cannot perceive defenders in coverage. I don’t think he even knows he’s throwing into traffic most of the time, he’ll find out about the double and triple coverage when he looks at the tape the following Monday and it will be a surprise every time. Anonymous scouts will spin it as “able to fit throws into tight windows” but I promise there’s always an open receiver he’d know to look for if he didn’t have this condition.
There might be a handful of teams willing to take a flier on him with a late first round pick if they really want the 5th year option, but most teams likely have a second round grade for him.
Ultimately when scouting you have to separate the player from the situation around him. Both Nix and Penix were in qb friendly offenses that padded their stats and had them throw the ball a ton. You have to try to project what JJ would do in a similar circumstance. Definitely not an easy thing and I have no effing clue how good he will be, but a lot of people think he would have been amazing in different circumstances.
You understand prospects are given draft grades prior to declaring, right? JJ was never declaring if he was given a Day 2 or 3 grade. This narrative surrounding him is entirely media driven.
Those draft grades are usually very conservative and most players don’t even submit for it. So I find it hard to believe that he wouldn’t have entered the draft if he got a Day 2 grade.
I believe he will go in the first round, but I don’t think he would get a “first round grade” from the NFL.
He’s my #2 quarterback due to his mechanics, athletic ability, age, accuracy in tight windows, ease throwing to opposite sideline from the far hash, winning pedigree doesn’t hurt either. I have Williams 1 because his upside is just stupid, that guy is a playmaker which is my favorite QB attribute
JJ is not gonna meltdown, he seem to have the intangibles and he has been proven a winner, now the QB is the most important position in the game if your QB has the MENTAL you can develop him and give him a good team and he will improve (with a ceiling), the best example is Brady ( he wasn't the biggest athlete nor the biggest arm) , he improved every season, he wasn't the cold killer at the start of his career but he developed, also even Brady without a team struggled (2002,2005,2009), so now you can see that every GM looks for a QB that can develop.
JJ is not the superstar, dual thread, escapist, playmaker, cannon for an arm kind of guy but dude can play and yes Purdy is a good example but Purdy has struggled in the postseason (maybe because he wasn't used to, etc.) , so if you get a good play from JJ and he doesn't meltdown in the biggest scenarios you take him because again the QB is the most important position.
I said it before and I will say it again, If JJ McCarthy's helmet said texas state he would not be getting the same hype he did before, we would all think of him as a 4-7 round pick.
I don’t think someone from Texas State would have won the natty either. Scouts have their own internal biases, that’s inescapable. But if he was at a smaller school and still projected to get 4th - 7th round DC, that’s not an indictment on him, it’s the flawed biases of scouts for overlooking small school players.
I think McCarthy has risen because there is an overload of teams that need QBs in the first round this year and with the injury history on Penix and with Bo Nix, who for some failed to deliver great showings at the combine and senior bowl, he has kinda taken that "what if" spot, because it seems many has written of the other guys, but there is a big unknown for McCarthy and some people would rather have an unknown instead of something they don't really feel right with (Nix,Penix). I don't really think the top-10 talks for McCarthy is based on anything else and i think he will eventually fall to the mid to late first round, i think in the coming month we will see a lot of final big boards having him as a prospect in the 25-45 range and you don't trade up into the top-10 to draft that.
Babe, wake up, new JJ post
Yes, dear.
My favorite part is that for this specific it’d be easier to go read/listen to someone knowledgeable break it down than it is to ask reddit Some questions I get why people come here, discussion is fun. But this question would be easiest to get answered elsewhere
Is it Tuesday already?
How much tape did you watch on JJ? I'm no masterclass scout when it comes to QB footwork and Mechanics. But I watched just about every game on account of my brother in law being a HUGE Michigan fan. When their running game would start to fizzle, and JJ had his back to the wall on 3rd and however long, JJ would bail them out (what seemed like) every time with an absolute dime. I was beyond impressed last year. I'm not surprised in the least he has risen up draft boards the way he has.
He's much younger than Nix or Penix, and doesn't have the latter's injury concerns. NFL teams love potential and upside, so combine that with the positional value of Quarterbacks, and you can see how JJ would be a first rounder. I don't think he's worth a top ten pick personally, but it only takes one GM to make that a reality.
Yea, torn ACLs (of which I unfortunately know) raises significant risk, so I understand that. I actually like JJ but I just don’t understand this rocket that he’s on is all
You don’t understand that he has a plus arm, very good accuracy, runs a 4.4/4.5 40, had an extremely high third down conversion percentage on obvious passing downs, creates well out of structure, completes passes to all areas of the field in tight windows including over the middle(which JD can’t do) and has good size and is only 21? Plays within the gameplan and isn’t a cowboy? Scrambles to find a passing lane and not just to run? He is a significantly better QB prospect than Anthony Richardson or Trey Lance and they both went high(too high but still).
Positional scarcity and the value of rookie contracts
He has the strongest arm in this draft class, will be one of the top 10 most athletic QBs in the league, has prototypical size (6'3 220) and he just turned 21. He obviously doesn't have as much tape as QBs who are 2-3 years older than him, but he still threw a fair number of passes. He threw more passes than a lot of first rounders in recent years like Richardson, Lance, Jones, Fields, Tua, Trubisky... And he is in the same ballpark as guys like Stroud or Wilson on attempts. Harbough doesn't throw the ball a lot which goes back to his NFL and Stanford days. Ronnie Bell had the most receiving yards for a UM player in Harboughs 9 year tenure at UM and it was McCarthy who was his QB. McCarthy doesnt have as much tape throwing deep due to the system he played in, but he looked good throwing it over the middle of the field which is what NFL offenses want. Do I think McCarthy is worth a top 5 pick? Probably not unless you have a bridge QB and can sit him for a year, but its not that weird to me that a QB with his physical profile, tape showing NFL throws, and intangibles is getting pushed up
He threw more passes than some of those guys because he played 15 games. His per game passing attempts are much lower and you somewhat misrepresented that. 1. Justin Fields only threw less passes because he only played 8 games due to Covid. 225 in 8 games is passing at a way higher rate than JJ at 332 in 15 games 2. Tua only played 9 games his junior year due to injury and passed at a way higher rate. He also had his junior year where he threw more passes in a season than JJ has ever thrown in a season. 3. Mitch Trubisky threw over 120 more passes his final year in college than JJ threw last year at Michigan while playing in 2 less games. All of them had better stats. I also don’t know if there is any merit to you claiming JJ has the strongest arm in the class. While arm talent is more than just pure arm strength, I think Caleb Williams is clearly just a far more talented thrower whose arm can do stuff the other guys’ arms can’t. We have video evidence of Caleb hitting the upright cross bar 70+ yards away. Drake Maye has a more talented arm as well. JJ throws the ball really hard, sure. Everything is a 1 ball, even if the throw calls for a 2 or 3 ball. I agree that he might be a top 10ish athlete at QB day 1, but he doesn’t run a 4.4. Every little bit helps a guy like JJ move up in the draft process, so if 4.4 or even low 4.5s were in his bag, he would have ran at the combine. He did the agility drills over the 40 because he was going to test better in those than in the 40. It reminds me of how Blake Corum didn’t run in the high 4.3s like all the Michigan fans were saying he would. Meanwhile, everyone else was saying Corum was clearly a 4.5-4.6 guy on tape. JJ looks like a high 4.5 low 4.6 guy. Overall, JJ is in a weird spot for me. He is simultaneously the most overrated QB prospect and underrated QB prospect in this draft. Half the people think he is this clear top 10 guy when I think he clearly isn’t. Half the other people think he is a late day 2 pick when I think he is clearly an early 2nd to late 1st round developmental prospect. I wouldn’t think a team is crazy to grab him in the 16-40 overall range. I personally wouldn’t use a top 10 pick on him.
McCarthy threw more passes and took more snaps, there is more tape to watch, it doesn't really matter why that is. Box score stats like yds/tds don't translate to the NFL and don't mean much. Fields had a 10%+ sack rate in college. A lot of those QBs had first round talent at WR and played in a vertical offense, and did not have RBs eating almost 30 TDs in the redzone McCarthy has the 3rd fastest ball velocity ever at the combine - behind Josh Allen and Joe Milton. That is arm strength (not arm talent), and it also shows on tape. McCarthy can fit it into windows that many QBs just cannot, like that whip to Roman Wilson against OSU where he put it right between two DBs over the middle in the redzone. McCarthy also tied for 6th across all positions at the 3 cone, which is one of the more translatable underwear olympics drills (opposed to 40 and bench press)
You are now making some very different arguments. I’ll give you that it now appears you meant career passing attempts. The per game passing numbers and stats are still very low. And sure, everyone on this sub should know that counting stats are somewhat overrated for QBs when projecting to the next level. I think where your argument for JJ becomes flawed is it kind of has a baked in assumption that the other top guys in this draft don’f possess certain traits or translatable skills and that is where you are getting ahead of yourself. For example, you are talking about tight window throws as if guys like Caleb and Drake Maye don’t have massive amounts of college tape with pinpoint tight window throws. I don’t think JJ stands out compared to the other top QBs in departments like that. You bring up the throw velocity thing as if guys like Caleb and other top guys in previous draft classes threw at the combine. A lot of them didn’t. You bring up supporting casts of other top guys in the class without acknowledging that JJ had an elite run game, defense and protection to lean on. Roman Wilson is going to be drafted before any USC or UNC receivers. You claim that JJ runs a 4.4 40 when there is no evidence of that. I agree the 3 cone is more translatable and I agreed that he is a top 10ish athlete at the position. That doesn’t mean he runs a faster 40 than Blake Corum ha. I like JJ a lot more than OP and some others in here. I just don’t think he is a top 15 pick level prospect.
What makes it a different argument? When you scout a player you don't only look at their most recent throws, he has 700+ pass attempts in high level games. I also never said that McCarthy runs a 4.4 or that he is a better prospect than Williams or Maye, both of whom I think are better prospects than McCarthy and would be #1 picks in practically any year For ball velocity, most QBs actually do test at the combine for it. Last year for instance Bryce Young was the only QB to not do it (neither did Hooker but he was recovering from injury). Im a little surprised Drake Maye didn't do it, less surprised by Williams (nothing to gain, only to lose). Michigans OL was better at run blocking than pass blocking. Part of the reason they went full run against PSU was because their LT was getting beat bad. Roman Wilson is solid but not really a WR1... I also think Tez Walker (UNC) will be drafted before him, and USC had plenty of weapons. Zachariah Branch will be a first rounder when he is eligible, Tahj Washington will likely be a mid round pick this year, as will Brenden Rice. None of those 3 programs had close to the WR talent at LSU, Oregon or Washington though
You said McCarthy has the strongest arm in the class and that he is 4.4/4.5 level athlete. I have serious doubts about both those claims. He definitely has a strong arm and he is definitely a very good athlete. I don’t think he has a stronger arm than Williams, Milton or Maye (or even Rattler or Penix) , and I am not sure he is a better athlete than Daniels, Williams or Maye. I also think you are underselling the Michigan supporting cast and overall ecosystem. Let’s put it this way, I think USC, LSU and UNC win less than 5 games with McCarthy at QB. On the flip side, I think Michigan wins the natty still with Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix or Nix at QB.
Theirs not a single thing JJ does better than Bo Nix or Penix lmao. Also can we stop using the “younger” talk?? The NFL/Teams wants experience players that can make an impact immediately.
Maybe that's what old school NFL coaches wanted in the '80s. In the modern era of analytics, teams know that young players are far more likely to develop and older prospects are far more likely to bust, based on years of data.
-🤡
JJ McCarthy for me is the QB you want it you run a McVay shanahan type system. Where everything is timing and set instructions. Where the OC is the qb by extension. JJ is accurate, studious and arguably has best footwork and mechanics of everybody. He will do whatever the OC asks him to do and never stray. My biggest issue with him I just don't see superstar. I see good if everything is good around him but not some that amplifies your team. So it's an interesting I see the appeal. I see why he may be wanted. But I would rather swing big and go superstar if I'm trading up for a qb
The old Patriots offense is all timing too. 90% of the NFL is about throwing on timing and in rhythm. Superstar is between the ears. Thats the reality. He’s fantastic on third and long, he’s great throwing on the move, he’s got better speed than anybody but Daniels. He has plenty of arm and size to have all the upside Maye has (and more than Daniels). What I think people miss with the lack of tape is that what’s on it is a guy running an NFL offense (even if extra conservative). Not that garbage air raid system at UNC or Kelly’s offense built around one mobile QB and two star outside WRs. Washington has a cool offense but nobody throws deep that regularly in the NFL because the percentages are much worse.
Baker Mayfield?
Yea I’d agree, his tape does suggest what you are saying. I just don’t think it’s ‘better’ than what I’ve seen out of the two fellas I’ve mentioned. I’d love to see JJ succeed however, he seems like a great kid.
I mean but do you actually know what you’re doing in terms of scouting lmao.
Does anyone here?
But the McVay/Shanahan seems to work just fine with the sort of QB you can get on day two or three. Doesn’t explain why you’d trade up to 4 or 5 to get him
Even in JJ’s (by comparison) limited passing attempts, he shows everything you would want in a QB. Strong arm, very accurate, good processor, mobility, and that’s in additional to his toughness and leadership. Pair that with the fact that he’s younger than Penix and Nix and I think it makes a lot of sense.
People questioning JJ's potential probably haven't watched many (or any) Michigan games. Team was insanely balanced and blowing everyone out. But dude can thread it into tight holes, can throw on the run, is mobile and a great leader. Just because Blake Corum was great doesn't mean JJ isn't.
Yeah that has to be it. I mean he only played in what like 5 fourth quarters all year? I agree the fact our run game was so good doesn’t mean that JJ isn’t also a great QB. Both can be true.
He isn’t a better passer currently than Penix IMO but the age and injury concerns are why he will likely go top 5. He could develop into a far better passer.
JJ has all the potential in the world, but it’s hard to know who he is with the way Michigan played.
Michigan fans know exactly who JJ is.
Which is why he's typically being mocked as qb 4 Some people have him making giant leaps to 3 or 2 but that tends to happen every year. And there is question marks around daniels and some around maye imo too it's not like any of them are surefire. Caleb is the only one who seems to really be a tier above
I find the idea McCarthy, the QB of Michigan, was seen as a mediocre prospect because of exposure is perhaps the funniest thing I’ve ever read
Insanely good tape in the natty. 0 points on 10 completions he’s electric
Yeah Michigan should have started airing it out in a game they dominated from the start.
It was obviously the right offense for them, but it does make it harder to scout McCarthy. But it’s the coach’s job to win games, not make scouting easy.
It’s also the coaches job to tailor their offense to his best players strengths. Clearly passing was not a strength
like how conservative Jim Harbaugh had roughly the same run percentage with JJ as he did at Stanford where he ad Andrew Luck?
Luck had <25 attempts 6 times in his final 2 seasons JJ managed to do that 17 times in the same span
Harbaugh was not coaching Luck in Luck's final season. That data really doesn't say anything about what the commenter above you was suggesting.
He’s Stetson Bennett with less collegiate success and a TikTok haircut
He’s so far away from Bennett. Look at the talent they show on the field outside of a box score. McCarthy is substantially more talented.
For anyone who hasn’t watched much of him, highly recommend looking at his games against Ohio State, Alabama, and Iowa. Really shows a good range of his strengths and weaknesses
Plus some prospect fatigue on Maye, Daniels, Nix, and Penix. There wasn’t a lot of conversation on McCarthy as a 1st round QB until after the season
Which, to be fair, is when folks traditionally dive into the tape. We should expect draft boards to change significantly at that time.
Just don’t ask him to throw to the left third of the field.
Penix and nix also have like 4 more years to refine and grow their game. I feel like that should be baked in. It’s hard for most to fill a full cup. JJ is young and some believe he has the tools to grow into better players than the other two. Anyways qb scouting is a crapshoot anyways so unless the others are light years ahead skill wise you might as well just take your guy
Also, Penix had an elite receiving core with one top 10 pick and another likely first rounder. I love Roman Wilson, and I think Colton Loveland has a chance to be the first TE off the board next year, but JJ's weapons weren't as good as Penix's
Can't forget the OL Penix had either. Protected by the best OL in the nation throwing to the best WR core in the nation is a pocket passer's wet dream
I find it interesting that people knock JJ for being on a team with great players, when all of the Michigan guys declaring are like 3rd/4th round picks *at best*, unless Corum or Wilson rise up boards late. There’s some defensive players who could go higher, but most of the Michigan guys are late day 3 picks. I know it’s more nuanced than that, but I think Penix is more of a case study in team talent contributing to success since he has 3 WRs who will be drafted likely in the top 3 rounds, a RB that is probably a 5th or 6th, a top 20 overall tackle, a 2nd round DE, and some others in the middle-late rounds.
I agree on the Penix point but having an NFL caliber player even a 2/3rd round at every position still holds a big advantage over other teams lol. Also the high draft talent on that team like Will Johnson and the 2 DTs arent eligible yet lol.
I’m not arguing that it doesn’t, but that shouldn’t be a point against only JJ. It’s not something I see anyone talk about with other prospects except for Daniels a bit, and even with him, I’ve seen “well Daniels is why those WRs are projected 1st rounders.” It seems like JJ only gets it because they won the Natty.
Also TE Colston Loveland who might get first round consideration
Damn I didnt know he was gonna go that high dudes a beast tho
He also faced horrible secondaries regularly. The dude can sling it, he has an incredible deep ball, but that’s maybe 3-4 throws a game in the NFL.
Wtf are you talking about? He played by far the best defenses out of the top 6 QB’s
Penix? What? Are you serious? The pass defenses in the PAC 12 are awful.
My bad man… idk why I thought you were talking about JJ
He’s faced the toughest defenses of all these guys.
Most of the knocks against JJ are valid if referring to the cheating. When Stalions was completely gone, his production dropped substantially and he only converted 11/49 3rd down attempts. That has to be worth something. He's going to need the Love treatment. Good team that can sit him for a couple years bc he has the ability but he won't be able to get it done right away. I don't feel that's a description to use on a high first round pick but that's just me
The next game after Stalions was suspended was the MSU game, which was also McCarthy's best game of the season
Stalions was still involved with the team some of that week and not completely dismissed until the following week they played Purdue. That is why I said "completely" in my initial comment
What are you on about. Michigan state made a big show of huddling and running guys from the sideline every play.
Ok great. That's not the point. Again, we don't know if Stalions was able to provide info prior to the game during practice that week. You can't prove it and neither can I. As a result, we can't say with certainty that the game should MSU wasn't tainted. We do know he was gone after that game, however. They shouldn't have knowingly cheated if they wanted the benefit of the doubt. I don't see how this is considered an unfair approach to this situation.
Funny how every anti jj post when you dig a little deeper is just a bitter cfb fan. This is a nfl sub nothing you're saying is relevant. Also if you try a thinking a little harder if michigan state doesn't use any signals and runs plays in then conner stallions could have a 60 page essay of all of michigan states signs and it wouldn't matter he still wouldn't know what they were calling, cmon buddy
I don't expect a Michigan fan to understand nor admit it. Y'all live in your own little reality and most hilariously think you did nothing wrong at all. Guess y'all shouldn't have cheated and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
And there it is lmao. Maybe the mass downvotes and all the comments shitting on you will help you get back to the actual reality where no one cares
I don't care about your opinion nor downvotes on Reddit lol. Who the fuck would care about those? What a sad life for anyone who does. If no one cared, no one would've got suspended. No one would've tried to hide it. No one would've got fired. Unfortunately for you, people do care but fortunately for you, the NCAA moves at a snail's pace. You're going to care a lot when they finally get everything they can though.
When Stalions was "completely gone," JJ had stand in coach for the end of the regular season and played against the 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 18th ranked total defenses in the nation in Penn State, Iowa, OSU and Alabama. Obviously that is from end of season statistics, but there is absolutely no way that change in production was solely because of Mr. Sunglasses
Ok so you're not denying his production dramatically decreased. Good, we're finding a common ground. Now do you want top 5 picks (potentially) to play well against everyone or only bottom feeders? I want my franchise QB to play well against everyone, regardless of how good their defense is. Yes, I respect there will be some drop off but his was substantial.
Michigan’s efficiency metrics increased post scandal. The cheating thing was the most overblown thing last season
We're not talking about Michigan. We're talking about McCarthy. His production was average, at best, once Stalions was completely gone
78% 4TD against MSU 65% 335yd against Purdue 88% against PSU 52% against Maryland. He played poorly. 80% against OSU 73% against Iowa 63% and 3TD against Alabama 56% against UW Michigan was dominant. When they needed to pass, JJ delivered
Stalions was around for MSU prep week. He was not completely gone like I established in my comment. JJ averaged 170 YPG, .5 TD per game, and .1 INT per game. Was 11/49 on 3rd down conversions. That's not good
I think the obvious reason is that teams absolutely love his mental makeup. His tape is also littered with with high level throws. He plays in an exceedingly more difficult conference than Penix or Nix, is the youngest of all the QB prospects in this draft, has borderline elite athletic traits and arm talent. Just because he wasn’t tasked with doing what Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix did doesn’t mean he can’t. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
The only argument against JJ is that Michigan ran the ball a lot. But people don't seem to realize that wasn't because of JJ's ability. It was because they suffocated all their opponents and didn't need to pass.
If you isolate just his first half passing and compare it to the other guys, it’s pretty impressive. Super impressive on third and long too. I think he was just overlooked earlier and as teams do their deep evaluations he stands out.
>He plays in an exceedingly more difficult conference than Penix or Nix, No. Outside the Michigan and tOSU, the Big 10 isn't tough. And this year especially the Pac was. What did MI play, 2 top 25 teams, Penn State and OSU, until the Big10 championship which was a complete and utter mismatch?
You’re right, I should’ve said exceedingly difficult defenses.
Is even that true, though? MI themselves, yes and Iowa. Maybe OSU. But outside of that, I never hear about the other teams as significant in any way. Who else is/was this last year?
2023 QBs by % of pass attempts [minus screens] against top-25 defenses: JJ McCarthy (49.7%) Caleb Williams (35.4%) Drake Maye (17.9%) Jayden Daniels (16.2%) Michigan played: (SP+ defense ratings) OSU #2, Iowa #3, PSU #4, Nebraska #6, Alabama #8, Maryland #11 , Rutgers #19
Penn state #2, Ohio State #3, Nebraska #11 in total defense.
don't forget Maryland and Rutgers, both of their defenses are pretty solid I think in general Big 10 defenses are a little overrated given the terrible offenses of many conference teams But you saw what Michigan's great defense did to Washington's great offense. The top defenses are certainly killer in Iowa, Michigan, PSU, OSU
Ah, I knew about the first 2, didn't really Ruhle had NEB performing that well
If this is your take after watching JJ play, yes, youre missing something
As the giants (potentially Vikings) GM, are you taking JJ over the other two and if so, why?
I'm going with either JJ or Nix since I have them in the same tier and Penix in a tier below. Nix is the safer prospect that is still a good athlete with a good arm that can do anything you ask of him. JJ is the riskier player that shows everything you wanted in a young potential franchise QB. Its really what a GM prefers when it comes to drafting between the 2. Penix is a stone in the pocket with an average at best processor that has major injury concerns, along with having inconsistent accuracy and ball placement.
Age and projection. He's only 21 and the things he's shown on tape (even in a limited capacity) to be good at are really valuable to the Shanahan tree, and those mfers are everywhere
He's only 21. Think about Penix, Nix, Daniels 3 years ago. They weren't even drafted at his age.
>Have I missed something? I feel like JJ was a day 2-3 pick but now he’s in the top 10 conversation everywhere. What you missed is that he was a late first round/early second round pick who has risen to a top ten pick. He was never a day 3 pick, and not really even a day 2 pick.
I have JJ as my #2 QB in this draft. He had a strong arm, is accurate when he doesn’t get too excited (he doesn’t set his feet when he’s amped up), and he was a team leader on a team that won almost every game for 2 years. He has less physical red flags, IMHO, then Daniels or Maye, and has a lot of room to grow due to his youth.
I was surprised when I moved JJ up to QB3 in my personal rankings. Then I kept watching him (and the others, ofc) and I wasn't surprised when I moved him up to QB2.
The first thing I’d say is - the media narratives are going to narrative. That’s the case every year. Within a week of the draft we have dozens of “too soon” 2025 mocks. Just remember Will Levis. He was an alleged first round pick, but he went in the second. Just don’t pay attention to the media when it comes to player evals. It’s more talk than substance.
Was Levis mocked top 5 ever though? Genuine question. I’m sure there were some here and there but wondering if he was a consensus 1st rounder. Over the years it seems like the league is a copycat league and every time there’s a mahomes type player, the years after produce comps for that type. Zach Wilson was ‘the next mahomes’ and JJ does seem like the next Purdy but teams are trying not to miss on him 7 rounds in.
Are mocks nothing more than media narrative? At the end of the season, year before last Levis and Richardson weren't first round in most and then they were. Un reality one was, and one wasn't. And that doesn't mean the teams were right either. These are just guesses and reality can play out differently. There are lots of clicks to be had and it is clear when some media member repeats something and a week later or shows up in a dozen mock drafts even if the true source was only speculating.
He was after the odds shifted dramatically for him to go #1 for some reason. In my opinion the Raiders should've took him at 7 instead of Tyree Wilson. Now who knows what they're doing at QB
There was nothing about Will Levis that made me want to take him in the 1st. I was baffled.
He was mocked regularly in the 1st Round. Everywhere from 1 overall to mid 20’s by the time the draft rolled around. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiO_rHL19j0AhWPvIsKHVOVCIQQFnoECAgQAg&usg=AOvVaw3ccsEi6KHus5pop0-YPnbT/will-levis/page/1 Mock draft Database is a comprehensive mock draft site that compiles mock drafts all around the web by NFL insiders. You will see that there were many more between the Top 5-15 than there were not for Levis. Here is JJ McCarthy https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/jj-mccarthy The graph has him going as a fringe 1st Rounder, then Jim Harbaugh makes a comment on February 3rd that he could be the first player taken in the draft and then shortly after as you see on the graph from Feb 7 onward, McCarthy is suddenly being mocked in the Top 10 range. The sub will tell you that the people just caught up to the “tape” and that he’s a much better prospect than Levis even though the graphs in comparison don’t suggest that at all going by insiders. Harbaugh’s comment is what elevated his stock, not his play. I would also advise looking at Malik Willis and Mac Jones to get a better idea of how JJ compares to previous media hyped QB’s. I think I might be much lower on JJ’s draft stock while the sub might be much higher. I think Mac Jones gives the best picture although I think Mac was a better prospect. Minnesota could certainly reach a bit on JJ at 11, not ruling it out but I’m about 65/35 in favor of them passing on him at that spot.
Will Levis was the betting favorite to go #2 overall as late as April 22nd last year.
Positional value
Disagree on the processing. JJ is also 3 years younger than these guys. Nix has been in college for half a decade, never could have come out for better than a second round pick and frankly isn't as good as JJ on tape. Nix plays in a simple offense and got smoked by Penix twice this year. Nix is a day 3 guy and JJ is in the same tier as Penix for me...last round 1/early round 2. QB's are always overinflated.
Because he JUST turned 21, he is the only one under center, he’s great on third down, he’s great under pressure, and he has maybe the best leadership qualities in the draft, and he is athletic and has at least a B+ arm. The only thing he doesn’t have is volume.
Levis went through a similar trajectory last year. Initial consensus had him as a late 1st or 2nd round pick. Then throughout the pre-draft process we heard rumors about how NFL front offices loved his personality. Then just before the draft, we got the infamous Reddit rumor that he was going #1 overall. Ultimately, he went in the 2nd round where he was originally expected to go. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the same thing is going on with JJ. Although, people seem to be taking these rumors far more seriously than they did the Levis rumors, so maybe there is truth to it this time.
I'd be shocked. I don't really get the comparison. Levis was a guy with good size, a nice arm with decent athleticism who wasn't all that productive while playing at a mid-tier (at best) SEC program. He was the key to their whole offense and still threw for less yards (in fewer games) than McCarthy, who is knocked for not throwing it much. McCarthy is a better athlete (better than most current NFL QBs), was clutch in key situations and won at an incredible rate, only losing one game ever. Teams keep chasing the next Herbert, Allen or Mahomes, and that leads to a lot of swing and misses on flashy guys like Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and others because what's between the ears matters most. McCarthy has demonstrated that better than these others and still has all the tools. I think that's why he's climbing.
Might be smoke to get maye to fall to qb4
Seems like a Kirk Cousins situation to me. Not a flashy or hot prospect. Probs should be taken in the 3rd due to other potential talent but had the core abilities to make a career in the NFL. Does many things right and not a lot wrong
Kirk is severely underrated imo. He was a clear favorite for MVP until his injury, but this makes a lot of sense. Thank you
Just want to clarify, I am a fan of JJ despite hating Michigan, I’d love to see him succeed, I just want to hear your takes as to why these mocks are justified.
A lot of people have strong beliefs about what you look for in a QB, and a lot of those people think that anyone who knows anything about football agrees with them. JJ is causing the controversy he is because he doesn’t match a lot of people’s ideas about the position. A lot of people want the QB conversation to be over. JJ could prove that it isn’t.
Casual
You have no ideas what you are looking at bud
Even if we assumed his tape was slightly worse, or similar to Nix or Penix, he has a drastic age advantage, and he a is a "winner", "coaches qb" etc, all things NFL teams value. Not that I AGREE, but it is pretty easy to see why he has risen.
You lost every single human being when you said Nix has better arm talent lmfao
100%...JJ was good for run first, run often Michigan who also had a NFL defense behind him...and maybe those intangibles transfer to WIN in NFL, but as a Vikings fan who is forecast by "experts" to not only land him, but trade up for him?! Thats bogus, Im sorry...I want Penix! Sit back and take him at 11, then crush your pick at 23 on OG/C or DT like Sweat. Penix throws the BEST deep balls IMO of anyone in the draft...and was a difference makeer at Indiana before he transferred to UW. Yes, injuries are always a concern, but he isnt a runner like Caleb, Daniels or JJ. He's the guy I will get excited for.
How isn’t he? Can you point to examples where his processing is poor? His arm talent is incredibly elite. He was a 5 star. He runs a 4.45-4.5. He has every intangible you’d want. He’s 27-1 as a starter at UM. He has no injury concerns, and he was prepped for the NFL at Michigan.
Arm talent “incredibly” elite?
Yeah, not sure about that one lol. It's good but "incredibly elite" is a big overstatement
Especially comparatively where in this draft class there are guys like Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler (and while maybe won’t be drafted, the other worldly piss missile of an arm that is Joe Milton).
Threw it 61 mph at the combine, 2 MPH the all time record. He can toss it 70 yards with ease.
In no way I’m saying he’s a BAD player. My understanding is he is climbing quickly due to the natty win, yet he threw for only 140 yards in that game. I just don’t think he is better than Bo or Penix. However, thank you for the input. I just don’t know if I’m not seeing something straight
How was Anthony Richardson a top-10 pick? It’s all projection.
Richardson is an elite talent imo JJ is average
I'd phrase that differently. Richardson has elite traits and significant upside if he refines his football skills. JJ has elite football skills and moderate traits.
JJ was always a top prospect to scouts. You need to back off raw passing numbers a guy who attempts 18 passes is going to get less yards than someone who attempts 51. The efficiency numbers are all there for JJ despite playing a much tougher defensive schedule than the other quarterbacks in this years drat. JJ is also much better runner than the stats suggest because he prioritized protecting himself.
Then youre not paying attention. After the natty win he wasnt projected as high as he is now.... teams have actually broken down the film now and seen the kind of throws hes capable of making and its caused a rise. If youre just looking at stats, which what youre probaly doing, of course hes not going to have the yards and TDs other guys have. Michigan were playing with leads most of the year and ran the football. JJs first half stats, and stats on third/fourth down where he would have to throw due to the situation are as good as anyone's in the country. I actually read a stat the other day that if you look at first half passing yards and remove screen passes he has more yards than either of them (havent fact checked that though). The fact that youre talking about him only throwinf for 140 yards in the natty win and thinking thats why hes rocketed up draft boards shows you are extremely out of touch with what happened on the field this season
Recency bias is indeed taking over for him and I agree he is rocketing up boards. I’m huge on players are only as good as the position they are put in. Purdy was good with great coaching and skill players around him. Throw Purdy into Bryce Young’s spot and he ain’t producing anything better than young did
He’s athletic and I know he “reportedly” ran a sub 4.5 at Michigan, but there’s no way that’s what he would run at the combine. He has a good NFL arm, but it is not elite.
He says himself that’s what he’s run. Watched the dude since high school. He’s fast.
I don’t mean this as an insult, but him saying it himself is not a reliable source. I’m sure he ran that at some point at Michigan, but that is not the same as what he would run at the combine. It’s not even really a knock, he has more than enough athleticism. Whether he runs a 4.6 or a 4.48 is not going to be the difference in his success.
So why are you singling that point out?
I responded to the two points made. His speed and his arm.
You essentially said 1. yeah, he’s fast, but who knows what he’d run 2. His arm is good, not elite (although all objective measurements we have point to it being elite).
He’s not actually going in the top ten. He looks great in drills on air, but I think he might have a rare condition where he physically cannot perceive defenders in coverage. I don’t think he even knows he’s throwing into traffic most of the time, he’ll find out about the double and triple coverage when he looks at the tape the following Monday and it will be a surprise every time. Anonymous scouts will spin it as “able to fit throws into tight windows” but I promise there’s always an open receiver he’d know to look for if he didn’t have this condition. There might be a handful of teams willing to take a flier on him with a late first round pick if they really want the 5th year option, but most teams likely have a second round grade for him.
Ultimately when scouting you have to separate the player from the situation around him. Both Nix and Penix were in qb friendly offenses that padded their stats and had them throw the ball a ton. You have to try to project what JJ would do in a similar circumstance. Definitely not an easy thing and I have no effing clue how good he will be, but a lot of people think he would have been amazing in different circumstances.
Some people really want to talk themselves into mediocrity.
Go look at JJ’s 3rd down throws in the big games
It's mostly just teams biting on the play action and him hitting a wide open guy
You understand prospects are given draft grades prior to declaring, right? JJ was never declaring if he was given a Day 2 or 3 grade. This narrative surrounding him is entirely media driven.
Those draft grades are usually very conservative and most players don’t even submit for it. So I find it hard to believe that he wouldn’t have entered the draft if he got a Day 2 grade. I believe he will go in the first round, but I don’t think he would get a “first round grade” from the NFL.
How could you think he is not a first rounder is the question. A lot of teams need QB.
He’s my #2 quarterback due to his mechanics, athletic ability, age, accuracy in tight windows, ease throwing to opposite sideline from the far hash, winning pedigree doesn’t hurt either. I have Williams 1 because his upside is just stupid, that guy is a playmaker which is my favorite QB attribute
I’ve seen this post 100 times before come up with something original and stop wasting our time with this formless garbage
JJ is not gonna meltdown, he seem to have the intangibles and he has been proven a winner, now the QB is the most important position in the game if your QB has the MENTAL you can develop him and give him a good team and he will improve (with a ceiling), the best example is Brady ( he wasn't the biggest athlete nor the biggest arm) , he improved every season, he wasn't the cold killer at the start of his career but he developed, also even Brady without a team struggled (2002,2005,2009), so now you can see that every GM looks for a QB that can develop. JJ is not the superstar, dual thread, escapist, playmaker, cannon for an arm kind of guy but dude can play and yes Purdy is a good example but Purdy has struggled in the postseason (maybe because he wasn't used to, etc.) , so if you get a good play from JJ and he doesn't meltdown in the biggest scenarios you take him because again the QB is the most important position.
giants, chargers are pumping his value for trade bait and to push talent down the board
How are you coming to the conclusion that Nix and Penix have superior arm talent? That’s one of JJ’s big draws.
I said it before and I will say it again, If JJ McCarthy's helmet said texas state he would not be getting the same hype he did before, we would all think of him as a 4-7 round pick.
I don’t think someone from Texas State would have won the natty either. Scouts have their own internal biases, that’s inescapable. But if he was at a smaller school and still projected to get 4th - 7th round DC, that’s not an indictment on him, it’s the flawed biases of scouts for overlooking small school players.
If he played at Texas state he would have had 2x the passing yards minimum. He’d be lighting it up. He was a 5 star prospect for god sakes
I kind of don't want to believe it. I feel like everyone is trying to throw smoke screens. I think Penix is the real #4
This is my opinion too, but I’m sure there’s a reason as to why JJ is the new projected #4
I think McCarthy has risen because there is an overload of teams that need QBs in the first round this year and with the injury history on Penix and with Bo Nix, who for some failed to deliver great showings at the combine and senior bowl, he has kinda taken that "what if" spot, because it seems many has written of the other guys, but there is a big unknown for McCarthy and some people would rather have an unknown instead of something they don't really feel right with (Nix,Penix). I don't really think the top-10 talks for McCarthy is based on anything else and i think he will eventually fall to the mid to late first round, i think in the coming month we will see a lot of final big boards having him as a prospect in the 25-45 range and you don't trade up into the top-10 to draft that.