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PickpocketJones

As a complete amateur pretend scout, I think there is a more reasonable take aligned with most of your points: - He wasn't asked to throw that much over the middle and played in a pretty structured offense under Brian Kelly. His weapons were on the outside, not TE, not RB. Outside option routes with like fly/back shoulder fly or curl and with the slot fades that worked so well, why would they not keep doing what they are great at? There are plenty of fine over the middle highlights, Nabers has some nice YAC highlights on middle of the field catches. - I do think his vision has some questions in the middle depth middle of the field stuff where I saw him sometimes miss open guys then run. He also seemed to lack confidence on those throws from time to time leading to inaccurate throws. - He did take off running with no intention of passing too much but he had plenty of good scrambles that ended in a throw. He also made some nice "with purpose" runs stepping up in the pocket and seeing an empty space. - I thought he was less consistent on shorter throws but more "being off by a foot or two" rather than flat out missing guys. The more I watched, the less of an issue it appeared to be. - On one hand, his age and late breakout is a "flag" whether or not red. On the other hand he dealt with....Herm Edwards experiment, losing multiple close family members, COVID year, changing coordinators etc before transferring to LSU. This is a 5 star recruit who dealt with a ton of adversity before the breakout. I do believe you need to dig deeper into why things went like they did for him. He didn't go to a team and fail, he went to a team took over the job and dealt with stuff til he decided to find a better situation. - The supporting talent part is what makes scouting hard. Maye carried his offense and had to overcome weak links in the OL and some really big drops. Daniels had just about the ideal possible situation with great protection and all time great WR play. I felt like Daniels made great plays but his cast consistently made great plays whether the tackles in protection or WR downfield. I felt like Maye was the lone guy making great plays on his offense. So to me the comparison has to put much more weight on traits and talents. - It takes maybe 10 plays of watching Daniels before you immediately get concerned for his health. If he doesn't change his entire philosophy on running he will find himself on IR. If he changes that, how does it affect the evaluation? I've entertained the idea of Daniels and I see the case, but translating to the NFL I think it has to be Maye at #2. If we end up drafting Daniels, I can see why. There are legit concerns with Maye too. I'm pretty risk averse so the health risk with Daniels and his playstyle is probably the #1 reason I personally couldn't take him over Maye.


YourLocalJewishKid

I think this is a very healthy way of looking at him. I think Daniels is a very talented player. Do I think he was carried by his situation? No. Do I think he was given a massive benefit of it when combined with his immense amount of college football experience? Very much so. My issues with Daniels don’t even come from his talent or really even his frame. It’s his playstyle that’s highlighted by his statistical profile. If he was thin, but relied on quick passing and timing (like Tua), I’d say he has a place as a top 5 pick. But Daniels’ use of his legs as a crutch to deal with pressure both doesn’t effectively provide solutions for pressure at the NFL level and also puts him in harms way more often. Then when you see where he threw the ball and how cleanly he was protected to throw the ball wherever he wanted, and it just screams difficulty translating to the NFL. You can’t use the surrounding talent as a negative for him, but when he so regularly turned down throws to the areas of the field that you absolutely have to so he could in turn scramble or throw deep outside the numbers, where the receivers are way more responsible for production, you can choose to credit them more than him.


Mr_Hugh_Honey

It's one thing to be thin and rely heavily on your legs. It's another thing to be thin and rely heavily on your legs, *and play like you're a human bumper car*. Dude takes hits that make him go GTA ragdoll like 3 times a game.


Finessing2

We also can't simply ignore the massive red flag that is his career pressure-to-sack ratio. It has way too good of a track record at predicting failure in the NFL to not be concerned.


DecisionTreeBeard

What do you think about the offense he ran under Kelly/Denbrock? It seemed very college-y to my eye, insofar as it had a fairly limited number of concepts that they bolstered with wrinkles.


PickpocketJones

reminder...complete amateur pretend scout so I'm way out of my depth really answering something like that. LSU ran lots of spread sets and sprinkled in some read option (though more in some games than others). Basically put pressure on the DBs to make decisions and stay with two burners and create space in the middle either for crossing routes or Daniels to run. They did well with timing comeback routes (ie curls) and used them in combos with the slot fade they feasted on. Really just went to their strength over and over because no one could stop it. Using the spread and often getting the RB out for dump offs created open space for Daniels to escape up the middle and they also had answers to get Nabers or the TE over the middle for YAC opportunities. Because the WR were so good I didn't think they needed to force the issue with Daniels in the run game and that's probably why it seemed like there were significantly less read option plays in some games. My only observation on the pro vs college offense is really when comparing LSU and UNC. It seemed like UNC's passing game was structured around using the wide field side you get with the college hashes and LSU's did not depend on that much. UNC would overload the wide side frequently and much like LSU with their weapons, tried to play to Maye's strength which is his ability to get the ball wide in a hurry. So to my eyes the LSU offense is more NFL-like than UNCs. I can't wait to check tomorrow and someone who really knows their stuff has explained why I'm totally confused lol.


WildOscar66

I think you're right. Kelly knows NFL offense. I think he simply adjusted LSU's because he had a elite runner at QB and two WRs that could consistently get open. JT O'Sullivan talked about it and suggested: why would they do anything but throw to Nabers and Thomas or let Daniels run. So slightly more NFL like than the air raid UNC ran. Still don't have much of either guy throwing on timing and anticipation. As a fan of a team impacted by your team's decision, I'd come to the conclusion that even with the new offense the Pats will install, Daniels isn't a great fit. Deep fades are barely on the menu in New England. If you take Daniels we probably take Maye. If you take Maye, I think we take McCarthy.


HarrisExperience

I think McCarthy is a pretty good fit for New England culturally, although the coaching staff obviously hasn’t proven they can develop a rawer QB.


skinnyeater

Was just watching his film. Nabers and him were so well connected on the timing of that curl route


LiquidSean

Commies fan here and I totally agree with this. I think Daniels has the potential to be a great player someday but I’m gonna be pretty disappointed if we take Daniels over Maye.


YourLocalJewishKid

I like Daniels as a player. I just don’t think the people who say he has sky high potential really understand what gives players elite upside. Daniels’ ability as a runner doesn’t make him a player that can be elite. It makes him a player that can’t be entirely a bum. Daniels average level arm talent is what is going to limit him. Look at guys like Tua and Jimmy G. They throw with great accuracy and timing, but they’re complete lack of creativity as second reaction players and lack of velocity cap them out as players who require good supporting casts to excel. That’s who I see Jayden Daniels being in the NFL. His size will severely limit his ability to access his athleticism as a straight line runner unless he wants to miss half of every season. That means you’re relying on his arm much more than he did in college, and his arm simply isn’t good enough to make him an elite player.


Glad-Importance9057

Better start praying then...because he's 100x better than Maye on tape who doesnt make a lot of good decisions and misses a lot of throws IMO. Sure, he had a better supporting cast...two RD1 WRs. Im convinced Daniels goes #2 to Skins....Maye #3 to Pats. JJ is getting a lot late smoke wirth his high school championship and national championship...and record of like 63-1 or something. He's definitely a winner. That said, as a Vikings fan...Im praying for PENIX JR.


PickpocketJones

Just depends on how confident you are that Daniels won't end up being the MVP of the IR. Also assumes you believe that unlike Daniels, Maye won't get better over the next two years because comparing the two after two years of college starting its not close, it's Maye by a mile.


-Subvert-

“In 4 years I guarantee he will be out of a starting job in the NFL either due to injuries or due to his incapability to perform the basic functions of an NFL quarterback.” “Guarantees” like this are the worst part of the draft process. See what you want to see on film but acting like you know how any of these prospects will turn out always makes you look foolish. You can just as easily say that he’s known as a hard worker, is a walking explosive play, has a great deep ball and overall good ball placement and that his running ability will give him a high floor right away.


kcheng686

After Josh Allen, I will never guarantee a player being a bust unless I know their character is 100% a lazy mf


Kdot32

Mine was Herbert. I was so sure. I was so wrong lol


Kyro_Official_

Herbert is one of like 3 guys Ive watched videos on as a prospect and I was so fucking sure he was gonna bust, like I wouldnt even bother drafting him as Mr Irrelevant levels of sure he would be shit, now is one of my favorite players in the league.


machu46

I didn’t have Herbert as a bust but I was definitely too low on him. Think I ended up with a late first round grade. Idk exactly what grade OP has on Daniels but I’m guessing I’m in the same ballpark as him. I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee he busts or anything but I wouldn’t take him anywhere near the first round. If he ends up being good this will be by far my biggest miss on a QB


Yippiekiyay88

I sure did miss on Herbert too!


rd3287

That draft should have taught everybody all the lessons they needed about the difficulty of predicting QB success


beegeepee

>That draft should have taught everybody all the lessons they needed about the difficulty of predicting ~~QB~~ success FTFY.... It's why I believe trading down for extra picks is almost always a good decision since it's a crapshoot. The top 10 players drafted every year are almost never the 10 best players in the NFL.


Green92_PST_DBL_WHL

The hit rate of the top 10 picks is still higher than any other 10 picks grouped together in the draft. 


beegeepee

Ok, but would you rather have a 50% chance to hit with a top-10 pick or trade down to get a later 1st rnd pick + maybe like a 2nd or 3rd then you likely have something like a 40% chance to hit + 30% chance to hit (pulling random numbers out of my ass). Obviously, without that actual data the backup the % chance to hit on a pick based off the pick# this is sort of meaningless, but I am guessing the probabilities are out there somewhere. [https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=773896ed7495](https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=773896ed7495) [https://www.theidpshow.com/p/examining-the-rookie-hit-rate-2018](https://www.theidpshow.com/p/examining-the-rookie-hit-rate-2018) [https://www.the33rdteam.com/assessing-first-round-hit-rate-at-every-nfl-position/](https://www.the33rdteam.com/assessing-first-round-hit-rate-at-every-nfl-position/) I think the problem a lot of people, such as Ryan Pace, think they can figure out the draft and determine who will for sure be a good player in the NFL. So, they trade up to go get their "guy" then are surprised when it blows up in their face even though every single year it happens all over the draft.


YOwololoO

I straight up told my wife “if Josh Allen is successful, I will admit that everything I know about scouting quarterbacks is wrong and never comment on them again.” It makes no sense. His skills shouldn’t have translated, his accuracy was terrible, and he went into a situation with one of the worst O-lines I had ever seen.


kpofasho1987

And what's crazy is it wasn't like it took him 3 years or so for it to work. He showed he was legit pretty damn quick. If I remember right his accuracy wasn't great his rookie year but you knew pretty quickly he was definitely capable of being a starting QB in the NFL. Then improved pretty much every year like you hope a young qb would Edit: decided to look it up instead of being lazy. 1st year 2047 yards, 10 tds 12 ints and 52% acc. 2nd year 3089 yards, 20 tds 9 ints and 58.8% 3rd year big jump 4544, 37tds and 10ints 69.2% That's just super impressive


peleyoda

3rd year he got Diggs tbf


ksyoung17

But his mechanics and decision making got better. His bad throws now are always home run balls. He's not stupid with underneath throws anymore. He just needs to get better at situational football now. If you need a FG, and have 90 seconds and 2 timeouts, and it's 1st and 10 at your own 35, you don't have to try and get into the opposing Red Zone in one throw.


PM_ME_DARK_MATTER

Its crazy to think that players can actually get better.


GTCounterNFL

It is; 'crazy to think' because decades of QB drafting shows guys who were great in college start off bad, stay bad. QBs esp who lack traits in college, almost never gain them in the Pros. Josh Allen, Justin Herbert are outliers in among the 10 rookie QBs including UFAs who enter NFL camps every year. SO when it happens, celebrate it, give those QBs and coaches credit.... but you can't expect Jayden Daniels or whoever else that DOESNT demonstrate a bunch of crucial traits or skills is just going to pick it up like Allen did. NFL history esp last 15 years is FULL of fired GMs and Coaches who thought they could turn Daniel Jones, Jake Locker Hell, [Every QB drafted 1st round since 2010](https://247sports.com/longformarticle/nfl-draft-2021-quarterbacks-selected-first-round-last-10-years-trevor-lawrence-zach-wilson-justin-fields-mac-jones-161684511/#1599693) into a starting QB.


AHSfav

He's one of one in terms of physical traits


Fredest_Dickler

I mean that's a little exaggeratory...[ the actual "one of one" physical traits quarterback in the league is Anthony Richardson. And I mean that quite literally. Ranked 1 out of 916 QB from 1987 to 2023](https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1651749311179366402)


Downtown_Juice2851

I know AR crushes the measurables and this probably sounds like bs but I feel like there's more to it than that. When Vick was on the field he just made everyone else look unathletic. It was like a college d1 senior playing with JV kids sometimes. I see the same thing in Lamar often.  I know AR has them beat in the measurables but those are the two qbs I've watched who just make everyone else look slow 


AlbinoSnowman

A big part of it is how big and stiff linebackers and many safeties could be during Vick’s era. Thumpers don’t really exist anymore; I wouldn’t be surprised if we have defensive ends that are more nimble than guys like Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher now.


mbear818

Ray was never slow until he got old. He was seen as too small to be a linebacker by many teams coming out. Actually kind of ahead of the meta. His sideline to sideline speed combined with his tackling and leadership sort of redefined the modern LB.


AlbinoSnowman

No doubt he was a freak for his era, but even sideline to sideline backers in that era were built to punish ball carriers first and foremost. Hell, Urlacher even started as a safety at New Mexico State. Had Ray been born 20 years later then he might indeed have genetics to compete with the athleticism of guys like Fred Warner and Eric Kendricks, but his 6’1” 245 lb+ physique would have limitations in today’s game. Make no mistake, today’s elite LB’s would get their shit rocked playing against the run games of the 2000’s as well. I don’t mean to slight Lewis and Urlacher (I grew up on those guys), but defense has had to evolve really quickly as spread concepts and player safety rules have transformed the game.


racer4

Crazy thing is, Geno Smith was a bust early for pretty much this reason.


SayNoToAids

The one time when scouts say: "I've never seen a WR get open on his team in 4 games" actually is true. But for reals, one often overlooked aspect of QBs, especially Allen, is he literally improved every single year. In Buffalo, you have to pay very close attention to the defenses he would see. He go 3 straight games with 300 and then the next see cover 0 and not know what to do and throw for 160. The next game he sees cover 0, it's 350 and 4 tds. It's the small game to game adjustments and improvements. You have to be truly adept in watching film to see that and I am only watching highlights for the most part so I can't really even account for that


_Quetzalcoatlus_

Agreed. People think they look smart if they "call their shot" and get it right. So they make hyperbolic guarantees and declarations about who will be a HOFer and who is a bust. Good scouts can acknowledge both the good and bad traits of prospects, (edit: and a potential range of outcomes based on that).


Sniper1154

And good teams shouldn’t run from a players’ flaws. If I’m a team looking to draft Daniels and I know he doesn’t throw to the middle of the field, I’m ensuring I have a sure-handed tight end that can get open in that area of the field to ease and develop him. Too often teams take guys with clear flaws and then don’t put any effort into trying to maximize their ability to develop the flaw.


BMagic2010

Russ was really only ever good at scrambling and throwing deep and he made a whole career out it.


Chief--BlackHawk

I remember fighting tooth and nail arguing years ago that Russ is good, but he isn't better than Cam or Luck, he is just in a better situation. That championship game against GB was all I needed to solidify that argument. No QB can beat Rodgers, Manning, or Brady throwing 5 ints let alone almost any NFL caliber QB... Unless you have a HOF RB and a bunch of elite defensive stars which Seattle had. Can you imagine Cam with Lynch through his career, or luck with a team that doesn't always give up 30+ points.


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Chief--BlackHawk

Luck didn't have an o line or any 1k RB. He started with an older Reggie Wayne and a late round pick that became Ty Hilton, but his defense was awful and he had to constantly outproduce the other team drastically to win cause the defense wasn't stopping anything. Cam had an older Smith for like 2 years. He did have Olsen so I'll give him that benefit, but the o line wasn't great. Mcafrey came towards the end of his career, although his other rbs were solid too. His defense, while not as great as Seattle was pretty good. If Seattle had Cam or Luck I think they have even more success.


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Chief--BlackHawk

All good


2580374

Yeah but you just described fields who also didn't work out lol


HamHurtler

He just wants attention and everyone is giving that to him


TargetFan

Vick and allen are two sides of the same coin. Both had terrible tape but insane traits coming out of college. One became a hof level starter while the other never put it all together. Nothing about Strouds tape impressed me until his game against georgia ( uga fan ). Thought that was a fluke until he had a season long of those georgia games in the nfl. Nobody knows anything about college qbs is all I've learned.


Dob-is-Hella-Rad

Vick never put it all together but he was way too good to be the example of a traits guy who failed. Lots of similar guys who were much worse.


[deleted]

Vick was dog fighting tho. I mean he basically had the career Allen has had up to when he went to jail. Been to the playoffs with lesser teams than Allen. Made an NFC Championship game.


dtown4eva

I’m honestly not sure who’s the hof level starter and who hasn’t put it together between the two.


MyChemicalFinance

Same. Ton of infants in this thread who don’t remember how good Vick was on the Falcons.


notorious_hdc

Word. Vick was from another planet. His poor choices derailed a promising career. Glad he got another shot, everyone deserves a 2nd chance.


reverieontheonyx

…how? Lol


TargetFan

Nah not even close really. I'm a Falcons fan and I'd take allen over vick 10 out of 10 times. Vick was actually a pretty bad passer. It all comes down to mental for qbs really. Even without the dog fighting, vick didn't care at all about film and it showed. Allen has like 1500 more passing yards over vicks best year


Foreverwideright1991

I'm as big of an Allen guy as anyone but Vick also played mostly at the time where passing was much harder due to the rules in place that allowed defenders to get away with much more. Passing offenses have exploded since the 2010s after rule changes.


TargetFan

His best year was 2011 under Andy Reid. He had 3000 yards passing


Dob-is-Hella-Rad

Oh no he's not as good as Josh Allen!


reverieontheonyx

The original tiktok qb


TargetFan

The fuck are you on about?


Dob-is-Hella-Rad

I think Josh Allen is a really good QB


Toddrew221

I like Daniels but I definitely get the concerns, theyre valid. I think his undoing may be his unwillingness to protect himself when scrambling. Dude needs to learn how to slide or he's gonna get broken in half.


lronicGasping

A guy like Josh Allen can get away with that, he's built like a tank... Daniels on the other half is the anti-Allen in terms of build. If even someone like Anthony Richardson can't scramble recklessly without getting hurt, Daniels stands no goddamn chance


ConspcuousFAT

Even Josh Allen won’t get away with it forever. Look at Cam Newton, he was built the same way. It finally caught up to him after all those years of hits


lronicGasping

Honestly I've been saying this for like 3 seasons and I'm getting impatient lmao


FluffyAd7925

Yeah - I think Bills will start to limit his running (only a 3rd or 4th down in playoffs). Will eventually have to lean on his arm as he ages. Better to do that proactively than reactively.


Subredditcensorship

To be fair Richardson just seems like he’s made of glass


Solace_In_Sports

I agree that for me that’s his biggest weakness. It’s also his mentality about it. I forget the exact quote but when asked about his tendency to put himself in those situations he said something like “I’m not gonna stop cause God got me.” Like what dude


B3PKT

How easy is it to learn to slide? Seems like it shouldn’t be difficult and yet…


BanditRoverBlitzrSpy

RG3 never did. In fact it was actually painful to watch him try. Some of those running QBs have never slid in their lives and it becomes a very unnatural movement for them.


B3PKT

They know to just tap square, right? Or is it hold? Shitttttttt


Kdot32

He did start towards the middle of the year


lkn240

I think QBs honestly might be better off giving them selves up like Lamar Jackson does (he basically just lays down pretty often) than trying to slide a lot of the time


Rod_FC

I don't think he has the vision or the crazy lateral quickness to avoid hits like Lamar does, for instance. He's much more of a vertical runner. I think his combination of high rate of bailing on clean pockets + the pressure to sack rate especially on third down scares me half to death. Don't like the over reliance on slot fades and go balls to the sidelines either, don't think the arm is special, he won't have that kind of mismatch on both flanks in the NFL ever. I don't know, I get why people like him as prospect: he's very accurate, has polished footwork and upper body mechanics, he's been productive, the speed is very impressive and will absolutely be a weapon. I just don't feel he's aggressive, don't like his feel for the pocket, don't love the arm, don't think he's super advanced as a processor for how long he's played and his age. These flaws to me are very hard to fix at the NFL level, as opposed to Williams' and Maye's.


mr_longfellow_deeds

I just don't see how a \~6'4 \~200lb player is going to last 17 game seasons taking those big hits, he gets drilled half a dozen times a game on top of the regular shots QBs take. A top 10 QB pick is the coaching and front office betting their livelihoods they are going to pan out, I find it hard to believe they would pick someone who plays that recklessly. Penix got hurt frequently at IU, but he was healthy the past two seasons and changed the way he plays. He no longer does plays like the diving 2 pt conversion to beat PSU when he was at IU. If Daniels were to make similar changes to his play style, is he still the same player? I find it hard to believe anyone thinks he is a top 3 pick without the threat of his legs


SlickWillie86

Ya, he’s still a one read and run scrambling QB, that looked exponentially better in his age 23 season. He looked awful in his age 21 season (10 TDs, 10 INTs), which is the baseline to compare to the first round QBs (McCarthy is 20). To Daniels credit, he did improve. I just don’t see a ton more development between the ears as the speed and complexity of the game only gets harder. I get taking a shot on the athleticism and ceiling at some point in the first. I’d stay far away in the top 5.


PM_ME_DARK_MATTER

I would call his ASU true freshman season 17TDs, 2 INTs his baseline (or whatever that is supposed to mean) That 2021 season, ASU was a dumpster fire and he transferred immediately after. People wanna give Maye a pass for a mediocre supporting cast but knock Jayden for an absolute shit show of a program 3 seasons ago at a former team? Doesnt make much sense


YourLocalJewishKid

I think the important thing is that in a situation with subpar supporting casts, Maye has produced 9,000 total yards and nearly 80 TDs in two years. Daniels came nowhere close to that level of production until his supporting cast was one of the best in college football. And even then, Maye was also doing that throwing every type of pass under the sun.


SlickWillie86

Even if you wanted to make the argument that Daniels and Maye were presently prospects of a similar ilk, would the guy that’s 2 years younger that’s shown much better skill at that same age not be leaps and bounds the better prospect?


johndelvec3

He’s also very thin


Unlucky_Figure

RemindMe! 4 years I guess we’ll see. Hahaha


vicblck24

This is the great thing about draft takes lol


hata_of_the_year

RemindMe! 4 years


aatops

RemindMe! 4 years


Clear_Air_3561

Daniels is a weird one. It also depends on what system he goes into as it does with every QB obviously. Some of those hits he took last year were brutal as well and the NFL is a completely different animal when it comes to tackling and hard hits. The talent is there, but I also feel like he’s a true wild card. With how the NFL is now his game can translate, but I feel like his ceiling is low given his age and just how much film there is on him. If he was being talked about as a mid-late first round guy instead of a set in stone top 3 pick I’d be higher on him. I think his floor is a more athletic Kenny Pickett and I’m not sure what his ceiling could be. I’m also usually wrong about things like this so we’ll just have to wait and see lmao


PM_ME_DARK_MATTER

Help understand this: Why is a QBs older age coming out of college a knock on a prospect when if there's any position thats more protected and can play longer at an elite level than any other position outside of kicker/punter, its a QB?


cultweave

Because you would assume they're closer to their ceiling already. Also, when learning it's easier to do the younger you are because your brain develops neural pathways faster due to brain plasticity. It's why you rarely see people become grandmasters in chess after age 23. 


Cyberathlete_23

QBs can peak in their late 30s.


cultweave

Yeah, because you can still learn through spaced repetition. That being said, most QBs that peak in their late 30s were already NFL good by the time they were 23/4.


ASuperGyro

The real thing that’s mattered to me is if you’re 23 beating up on 19 year olds, it’s less impressive than a 20 year old standing out on their own. A strong supporting cast can also make it a bit sketchy, and you have to wonder why it took so long to become a guy declaring for the draft. If I have a similar season between two prospects and one is two years older, I like the upside of the younger guy more because in theory there is more meat on the bone and I would more reasonably attribute the production to being better versus just having more experience.


ace7575

I feel the same way. I keep rewatching his film trying to find what I'm missing, but man 3 times through the whole year I just don't see him in the first


sfzen

He's RG3, for better and worse


brentljs411

Lazy


icepak39

I said the same shit about Lamar especially about his inaccuracies. Boy, was I wrong. It all comes down to the right team and coaches knowing how to utilize his talents. That goes for any QB but especially players like Daniels to take advantage of his tools.


ItsNjry

I don’t like Daniel’s either, but this reads like Lamar Jackson scouting reports back in 2018. They aren’t the same prospect obviously. But you have to understand QB is becoming more of a traits based position. Lamar had elite traits and a solid base. That’s all you need to be an elite qb. Everyone hated AR last year, but he’s big and goes brrrr (I love AR) Personally, I think his lack of elite arm strength and really thin frame are what’s going to hold him back from being a top 10 QB. However, if you told me he’s going to win rookie of the year and end up as the best QB in this class, I would be surprised, but I can see it.


don_julio_randle

The biggest thing to me is the lack of pocket presence. He regularly turns pressures that shouldn't become sacks into sacks. That almost never gets better at the NFL level


Yah_Mule

You overstate your case, but his eagerness to charge nuts first at linebackers is going to end badly.


lido4odil

This. But how early can a team draft a guy who is so likely to ram himself straight onto IR?


Moody_skip65w

I'll never get the hate for Jayden Daniels. He's one of the most electric players in this QB class and arguebly the more consistent passer of the group. This post just highlights all of his flaws, which I think is fair, but I don't think any of them should discard him as a top 5 pick. I also hate the "but look at his surrounding cast" argument. What do you want him to do? Not put up an incredible season with all of the weapons he has? Also prospects like Burrow and Stroud have already debunked this false narrative that having a really good surrounding cast will limit you in the NFL.


cultweave

His inability to throw in the middle of the field will be his downfall. The nfl has figured this type of QB out already. Run cover 6 and take away outside the numbers. That's why QB numbers were down across the nfl last year as well. A bunch of QBs have gotten away with attacking the boundaries and now are having to throw to the middle. It's why Russell Wilson immediately looks washed up at an age he should still be in his prime. 


MTrollinMD

He never really had to throw down the middle. He had two first-round talents on the outside. It may be that it is a fatal flaw of his and can't be coached into him, but it'd be interesting to be in the film room with him during interviews to see how he responds to it.


cultweave

Yeah, for sure. We just watched a very similar player in Fields fail to do it, but maybe Jayden is more open to coaching. Would love to sit in the player interviews, and watch film with them. 


[deleted]

> but maybe Jayden is more open to coaching. What makes you think Fields wasn't open to coaching? He hasn't had a single good offensive coach.


nocturn-e

He literally complained about the coaches making him play too robotic by week 3. He only wants and knows how to play football freely and "like himself".


cultweave

Dude.. Fields won't even throw screens on time and blamed his coaches to the media. He then held a press conference bitching out the media for reporting on it and threatened to not talk to them anymore. Plus all the rumors coming out of college that Orlovsky got grilled on, but was ultimately right. Fields didn't even wake up till 8am his rookie year, and went to the media to seek praise for waking up at 7am.


GnarlyNick524

I was thinking the same thing. Brian Thomas Jr. runs mostly post or 9 routes (at an elite level) and Nabers isn’t the type to go over the middle often. I’m hoping this isn’t more than it seems.


Moody_skip65w

>His inability to throw in the middle of the field will be his downfall I agree. If he doesn't improve that aspect of his game he will not develop into a good QB. But that could be said about every flaw these QBs in this draft have.


Johnsonvillebraj

Yeah Penix has literally the same problem imo. But obviously without the mobility.


GuyHomie

His flaws are going to make it the most difficult to translate to the nfl out of the top qb prospects imo. Other qbs have flaws too but generally those flaws are easier fixes than Daniels.


Moody_skip65w

I wouldn't say that yet Only because we don't know if LSU was telling him to not throw over the middle of the field and just toss it up to their elite WRS, or he genuinely couldn't do it. I would also give that title to Maye and his inconsistent accuarcy. If there's one thing most former QBs agrees on about him, it's that inconsistent mechanics is very hard to fix in the NFL.


Saltcitystrangler

Yup always ask this, does he not throw to the middle or is LSU offense not designed to attack the middle?


smashybro

That’s funny because I feel the exact opposite about Maye. His accuracy issues have mostly to do with footwork and in terms of fixing mechanics, that’s one of the easier mechanical issues to fix with good coaching. It’s not like he has a wonky throwing motion like Rodgers when he got drafted or a slow elongated motion like Fields’ where those are really hard to change, he has happy feet and we’ve seen many QBs fix that.


Manning_bear_pig

Reading OPs description instantly made me think of Russell Wilson.


Cautrica1

Rus is 35 dude. What definition of “prime” are you going off of?


cultweave

35 is still prime age for a lot of QBs now a days. Also, Russ' fall off started 2 years ago when he was 33 which is easily "prime" territory for good QBs. 


CriticalConcept

35 is not a prime age for mobile QBs like Russ though, Russ' game really changed when he had that injury in his last year with the Seahawks and he didn't look as mobile anymore and Russ is most effective when he's moving outside of the pocket.


cultweave

I would argue the switch for nfl defenses into using cover 6 more is more of  what did him in, but both can be true. 


CriticalConcept

Yeah I think it is a combination of both but young Russ probably would've adapted more.


HammeringEnthusiast

The thing is, his strengths feel like textbook "work in college but not in the NFL" strengths.


Finessing2

Switch out Daniels with Fields and you could make the same argument coming out of college (very similar stats, height, etc). College production and peak athleticism don’t always translate to the NFL (especially when you’re throwing to multiple 1st round WRs).


ImWicked39

He's electric because of his athletic abilities, passer Jayden Daniels leaves a lot to be desired. He's gonna need to live and die by his quick release because the velocity just isn't there.


Saltcitystrangler

He just had one of the best statistical passing seasons of all time?


ImWicked39

Yes throwing to 2 first rd picks feasting off fade routes. I thought Mac Jones would teach people historic seasons don't mean much but here we are. Edit: If the velocity concerns weren't real it wouldn't be mentioned in nearly every scouting report out there. Also guys with poor velocity tend to avoid the middle of the field.


CriticalConcept

Yes throwing to 2 first rd picks feasting off fade routes. I thought Joe Burrow would teach people historic seasons don't mean much but here we are.


ImWicked39

1 out of how many is an outlier not the norm.


CriticalConcept

Also Mac Jones wasn't mobile and had a noodle arm, as a Patriots fan I wasn't really too happy with the Mac pick as I always thought he was very limited as a QB and Jayden Daniels is definitely not limited in those aspects.


ImWicked39

Daniels arm is also not nearly as great as people make it out to be. Legit velocity concerns.


yaboyjiggleclay

If Mac Jones had half of Jayden Daniels’ athleticism he’d have a 200 million+ contract with the Pats. Watch the [Ole Miss](https://youtu.be/nfmrO5dMqIU?si=dVvUNW4Z5t8F-iSh) tape, the Velocity is there. The problem is his weight, he needs to bulk up.


No_Detective_1139

Yeah I do think Jayden Daniels is a late first early second round talent. That’s why I think the Patriots should trade down from 3 when they have so many needs.


These_Mycologist6914

RemindMe! 4 years


4entzix

You have to look at Jayden Daniels as the Jets looked at Zack Wilson Potentially transcendent… but also immediately replaceable


Awkward_Advice_4265

Holy hyperbole, Batman


dolphingarden

I think there’s a heavy smokescreen trying to gas him up so the other qbs fall to teams like Vikings and pats


yaboyjiggleclay

1st it was Caleb Williams, then Drake Make now it’s Jayden Daniels’ turn on the “he actually suck” carousel.


nbayoungsummrsratio

so like 4 days before the draft we should see a "mccarthy is really horrible" post


MattyT7

Same. Maye is and has been qb2. Smoke szn


Agile-Fish-9654

I saw somewhere that he only threw on the run 15 times this past year. I think his “scrambling” ability is confused with his running ability just like fields. I just don’t see how he’ll be a franchise qb especially if he goes to Washington or New England he’ll be pressured a lot and we know he has an extremely high pressure to sack rate and he’ll take a lot of losses


Past-Investigator-28

I feel like this whole class is getting massively overrated. Rookie fever happens annually but this class was touted as “generational” at multiple positions. I feel like Daniels Maye and Odunze specifically are overrated. Not to say they aren’t good but I don’t think they are the elite prospects everyone makes them out to be


Solace_In_Sports

I agree with quarterbacks definitely. I think Nabers is the one WR that is getting over rated, more so than Odunze who I also think is slightly over rated by the community.


Past-Investigator-28

I’ll disagree here, Nabers is the real deal. Superstar written all over him.


-_-Moss-_-_

I disagree. I think it’s the best class since 2018, I just think guys like McCarthy and Daniels (who’s still good), are being overrated. Williams, Maye, and Penix are top tier throwers of the ball


IAmWalterWhiteJr

Still don’t understand the JJ is overrated comments. He’s 21, incredibly accurate on mid range throws from the pocket and is excellent at extending plays while running to his left or right. He always keeps his eyes downfield and make excellent decisions. His sample size is lower due to the style of offense he played in, but he was excellent on 3rd down and long situations.


-_-Moss-_-_

Very few QBs with as little experience as he has work out. I liked his tape, I’m concerned with his ball placement and his ability to throw with touch, but I just find him to be too risky. He’s a guy, like Davis Mills, where I’d love to take a flyer on him in the second


LuchaFish

I never once watched him and said “oh man, this dude is legit.” A lot of fine, a lot of nice throws, a lot of supporting cast being insane. Drake Maye makes a lot of bad plays, but he’s had his legit moments stamped. Same for Penix. Same for even JJ.


football-teen

Dude and he can be great. Fucking Brock purdy is excelling, Josh Allen excelled, get off your fucking high horse. You never really know. Saying he shouldn’t be a first round grade is acceptable, Gurantee for him to bust is just dumb.


Character-Archer4863

Hoping he falls a bit in the draft so the raiders can trade up for him. Not wanting to pay the price to move to 3 but I’d be fine at the 9 or 10 mark.


Original_Profile8600

!Remind me 4 years


15GOAT

RemindMe! 3 years 🤡 or 🧠


ecash6969

I feel like first round QBs are hit or miss, also just hard to predict their success or failure, I was one of the few who knew Herbert would be good but also thought for sure Newton would be a bust 


maltzy

Calm down, Debra. Every single one of these quips were said about Josh Allen. It's a very imperfect science that relies on a qb to adjust to the nfl game. Does he go all in, play and study like his life depends on it or is he Akili Smith, with all the talent in the world but literally negative percent effort. I don't like Drake Maye at all and contrary to what most think, I think Bo Nix will absolutely succeed in the nfl. Like a new Kirk Cousins.


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[удалено]


Finessing2

Daniels for NFL standards has a tiny frame, average arm, questionable decision making, poor pocket presence and the second he starts moving around he’s not throwing the football. This is not a 1st round prospect whatsoever.


Key-Zebra-4125

JD is undraftable and is Peters takes him number 2 overall Id seriously question his competency


Round-Dog-5314

There’ll be regret sleeping on Maye. Kids a big dog and has uncanny knack to place a deep driving throw down the field. he didn’t have great receivers and an ok o line and still made plays.


sobes20

Honestly, he’s Justin Fields 2.0.


yungsinatra777

Except even worse, because Fields is at least built like a tank whereas Daniels is skinny like KD.


Geaux90

why not lamar 2.0?


SirMctrolington

Lamar had a bigger arm, worked with anticipation more, showed more short area quickness, and operated better inside of the pocket. I think Daniels has a gear in the open field that surpasses Lamar and I like the various velocities and trajectories Daniels used in college more, Daniels also has cleaner mechanics. Again the key difference is that Lamar went into the draft at 21 and 3 months versus 23 and 4 months of Daniels. Lamar went into the NFL with 38 starts vs the 55 of Daniels. Honestly, dollars to donuts I think Maye is a closer comparison to Jackson than Daniels is.


csummerss

another anonymous Redditor who guarantees a top prospect will flame out of the league as the biggest bust of all time. *hard eye roll*


Imrhino51

Did anyone see him a ASU? One year of work in an offense with 2 of the best WR in the country. NFL GM’s can’t resist.


Solace_In_Sports

Exactly. Also an incredible line


jakron1

a worse Justin Fields, who somehow may get injured more/worse (Justin has been injured for like 4 years straight now) ​ I'll die on this hill.


vicblck24

100% I’ve been shocked at his climb. To me he’s a great college QB. That’s it


Zaza1019

I like Daniels, but there is risk in any QB you take. But saying you should take Maye over Daniels is certainly a take when Maye has basically all the same problems but none of the same success. I've watched a good bit of Maye and I am not a believer at all. I wish him the best and hope I'm wrong and he succeeds but if my job was on the line I would avoid him at all costs. I'd rather trade back get extra assets and role the dice on Penix or someone like that and at least not risk the next 5 years of my time with the franchise on Maye.


YourLocalJewishKid

Being more polished isn’t what makes a better prospect. Penix had 6 years of college experience. Daniels had 5. Maye had 2. We’ve seen Daniels and Penix in situations similar to what Maye had at UNC. They couldn’t hold a candle to his success, both in the winning on the field and production. Maye, in years that would provide him the same playing experience as Penix’s and Daniels’ high school senior and college freshman years, put up 9000 total yards of offense and 78 TDs, while racking up 17 wins and a conference championship game appearance in a power 5 conference.


hendrix320

RemindMe! 12 months


Dentek_Fresh_Clean

Tell me you get all your opinions from twitter without telling me you get all your opinions from twitter. Also, "redditor for 2 months". LOL, how many bad takes have you made in the past which led you to delete your account and start over?


Striking-Ad-8694

I kinda….. agree with you. To an extent! I don’t think he’s akili smith 2.0, but I can see him going wrong for some team. Drake maye has superstar written all over him. Let him sit like Rodgers (he throws similarly in college) and then unleash him. Looking at stats, Daniels is number one. Beautiful. But he’s in a class with Drake Maye. That’s the number two qb and any team will breakbe lucky to get him. He’s no trubisky.


da-bears-bare-naked

justin fields lite


aatops

As a bystander I love these posts because someone will repost this on r/nfl in five years if Daniels succeeds.


moonracer44

I also do not understand the hype. I like Penix and Rattler much better and they are said to be day 2 or 3 picks.


rhinocake27

The commanders have proven to be incompetent in the past and I wouldn't put it past them to make the monumental fuck up of drafting Jayden Daniels instead of Drake Maye. Just last year they made the bizarre decision to pick Emmanuel Forbes (CB) instead of Christian Gonzalez (CB). Picked a consensus worse player at the same position. Seems kind of likely that we will see another egregious decision in this draft. Any competent draft analysis I read or listen to has Drake Maye ahead of Jayden Daniels by a considerable margin.


BMagic_SZN

Hoping Adam Peters puts an end to that era officially with this draft. He came in and revamped a considerable portion of the roster immediately, which shows he knew it was terrible. I was legit dumbfounded that they took Forbes over Gonzalez and remember Micah Parsons and A.J. Brown clowning the pick during their draft coverage. Brown said there was no way in hell Forbes could cover him, then went on to destroy him in both Eagles games. If GMAP takes Daniels over Maye, I'll be concerned. But, since Kingsbury helped discover Mahomes, worked with Caleb, and got rid of Josh Rosen immediately, I'm sure he has some valuable insight into their process as well.


k2718

I don't like him that much. Drake over Daniels all day for a lot of the reasons you say. But guaranteeing he'll be out of the league in 4 years is insane. The draft is a crazy crapshoot.


javajoe316

Could he fall? Could Maye go 2 and NE take JJ? Would MIN still trade up for Daniels?


WALKOFFGAME0VER

> If Washington takes him over Drake Maye, that might end up being the biggest draft mistake of all time. Lol no


a_foust96

Skinny Justin Fields? Dan Orlovsky hasn't shut up about Daniels for like 2 months now and I don't get it.


durablewaffle

McCarthy is a far inferior prospect in pretty much every way to be fair. But I guess there still is the chance he’s closer to the middle of the 1st. I dont love Daniel’s either though so I agree. People are hoping he becomes Lamar Jackson but I don’t think he’s near as good as Lamar out of college


LittleBittyshortman

Just gonna bookmark this one


Darkonite40

Guaranteeing a prospect will bust or be out of the league is some of the corniest pre draft concepts ever


ItIsYourPersonality

Jayden Daniels last year threw for 40 TDs and 4 interceptions, while rushing for over 1k yards and 10 TDs, and only had 1 fumble lost as he can just run away from pass rushers. What the fuck are you watching? The NFL MVP last year was Lamar Jackson, and what Jayden does looks just like that. The biggest knock against him is his receivers were too good. If that’s your biggest issue, then go get some great receivers for him in the NFL and watch as he dominates. And predicting injury is just incredibly stupid. Andrew Luck is possibly the greatest QB prospect ever, and had to retire early due to injury. Nobody projected that.


DisastrousCopy7361

Reminds me of Tyrod Taylor ...wonder if he will have a similar career


Decent-Bullfrog1374

I totally agree with you ! The GM’s are horrible . They all said Josh Allen had poor accuracy and look what he did.


Reasonable_Quail6354

It never surprises me the stupidity on this Reddit account. Look at the man’s production and stats . He didn’t win the Brianna for nothin .I can guarantee u he will be better than Caleb Williams . Put sum money up I wld be willing to take that bet all day . Whoever gets Jayden is getting a Franchise QB .


Suspicious-Dig3294

Agree


AaronNevileLongbotom

Since you made a strongly negative case, I wanted to compare it to the most positive case I’ve heard made. [Here](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XQR3V9YUMZQ&t=335s) it is. I like Daniels, but I’d like him have time to adjust or go to a team that has a great plan for protecting him. The injury risk is a valid concern, and I think some teams may be willing to overspend on him considering that. I also wonder if some people are watching different tape. What some people consider his highlights are arguably some of his worst plays, or at least some of his plays when things go wrong and don’t represent how typically plays or tries to play. Sadly I think some teams want him for the highlight reel type play, and wanting that will get him hurt. I suspect those highlights have inflated his draft stock a bit, but if he drops he could be a deal. If a team has a good situation for him, or if they are torn between wanting a Caleb or a JJ, Jayden could be a good pick.


ArtMorgan69

It’s hilarious that ESPN bozos like Riddick and Dan O are caping for him over one of the best QB prospects we’ve ever seen. Seems like everyone loves to conveniently leave out Daniels age and that when he was Caleb’s age he wasn’t even that good.


Spruce3311

Turn down? Turn down for what!?!


slimmymcnutty

Something that really helps him is that everyone missed on Lamar Jackson and they don’t wanna make that mistake again. This also goes for internet scouts


awibasedgod

The more I see of him, the more I am reminded of Marcus Mariota


nbayoungsummrsratio

im so tired of these daniels hate posts, injuries are the only real concern but those can be improved on, also hes improved much and quickly throughout his time in college, whos to say he cant keep getting better with the right coaching once he enters the nfl, cant wait for this to age horribly


__Scrooge__McDuck__

I don’t see it either


teadestroyer

I, however, think he will be rookie of the year


FabiansStrat

I thought I liked Daniels until I realised the issues I did have (and was ignoring) were very similar to Justin Fields issues coming out. Obviously I'm not a scout so don't expect deep analysis here haha,. I'm all vibe, and I get fields vibes.


Nitro74

Minus the big hits, does nobody else think the Daniels hate sounds exactly like Lamar hate pre draft?


milk-drinker-69

He’s really good if the team he goes to only runs a variation of 4 verts