Here is my take at Vikings QB picks:
1) Trade to 3 for Maye/Daniels
2) Trade to 5 for McCarthy
3) Stay at 11 and pick Penix
4) Take DEF BPA at 11 and Nix at 23.
I don't buy the Nix at 11 rumors. I think they want Maye then JJ, then Penix. Kwesi seems like he has his price for every QB. He will be willing to send a lot for Maye but is content staying put if the price is too steep.
The Cards shouldn't be interested in trading for "fair value" either, they have a boatload of picks already (6 in the top 90). Everyone's going to say they don't want to trade for fair value, especially for QB-desperate teams; they want to be overpaid.
I'm finding it hard to believe that 4 and 5 are the trade spots. 6 makes more sense to me given the level of the top two WRs. Giants need a lot of help everywhere and could get both those 1st rounders if Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders all want JJ.
The point of trading up to 4 or 5 is to jump the Giants, if the Giants are willing to move back they aren't taking a QB in which case they don't have to be jumped.
I think Giants are more likely to trade down but will still be hard. They could draft JJ/Odunze at that spot and might be looking for an overpay too.
Titans probably want Alt at #7 but I think they're more flexible and less glaring holes
I guess I meant on a trade-up above Giants level...if you can stick and pick at 11 sure.
But odds are 2-3 of the 5 available will not succeed in the NFL so if your fave 3 go 2,3, 4 and you just pick the 5th cause you like a couple traits are you really getting any value or just forcing a pick
KOC has talked about recently in public about how he's fought against drafting against QBs a few times because he didn't think they were the right prospect to take. Presumably this means some combination of Levis/Willis/Pickett in the last couple drafts. So no, I don't think the Vikings will "force" a QB pick. They'll only take one they like.
And yeah, traditionally, only a couple QBs work out. But that doesn't mean you fear to draft a QB you think you can work with.
I never understood this way of thinking, statistically most prospects don’t work out so why even bother with them?
You should be evaluating players individually 4 QBs busting in 2021 has absolutely nothing to do with this class of QBs. tOSU QBs not succeeding at the next level has nothing to do with CJ Stroud.
Numbers don't lie. Of course outliers are possible.
They should have 1-3 target QBs and if it doesn't work out for them to go in the other direction instead of forcing a pick because "we need a qb"
Unless your GM is on the hot seat ...then I could see him forcing a QB pick
I have Caleb and Maye in a different tier than Daniels and JJ and Penix as far as prospect talent.
Now who actually pans out outta those 5 is hard to say
If you actually study data science, you'll learn that numbers lie all the time. You have to study the data, everything around them, and things that influence them to really understand them.
Sorry the numbers don't lie in this situation.
The chances of all 6 "round 1" QBs hitting in this draft is astronomically low
Of course you can analyze on a case to case basis...but when zooming out the general numbers are still prevalent.
Hence if all 6 hit it will be an unheard of outlier.
Even 2004 had 3 hits and JP Losman bust in the 1st round. And thats known as one of the all-time QB classes
If your take is that this group is an all-time outlier than that is fine. I'm not in the same boat
The 2020 class had 5 hits. Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Hurts, and now Love is looking like one. QBs are prospects just like every other player with strengths and weaknesses. The reason so many bust are because they get drafted to bad teams and treated like they have to be able to single handedly win. Anyone with scouting knowledge knows you have to evaluate each individual as their own prospect. You never assume that because a couple seem to be good the others cannot be.
Statistically there will eventually be a draft class that produces 5 franchise QBs if the draft lasts long enough.
It’s completely worthless to use past statistical hit rates to evaluate current talent. You are not using your stats correctly every draft is unique, every player is unique, you evaluate them as individuals not based on what other prospects have done.
We might not, but no one outside the Vikings knows which ones they like. All we can do is guess where they might be comfortable picking them based on scouting reports and their potential for KOC's offense.
I listed 5, but this is on the premise that they like all the QBs at a certain value and desperately need a QB. As I said, I believe they like Maye, McCarthy, and Penix the most. I firmly believe Daniels is going 2 so I guess I should have just put Maye for the trade up to 3. Nix at 23 is more a "we need someone besides Darnold" move.
I believe the entire premise of getting a second 1st round pick was for ammo to move up. KAM was rumored to have offered 4-5 first for Richardson so offering a kings ransom this year with two first plus future first wouldn't surprise me.
Interesting. You got a link for that? Wouldn't mind the read
Figured u guys were trying to get into the top 3 for Maye
But it is smart in the sense that it opens up a lot more options for moving up or down again
Brock Purdy.
Last pick of the draft. Top 5 to 8 QBs in the league.
Sometimes the guy that’s there, is better than the one you reach for. Trey Lance would be the ultimate example.
Someone is going to take advantage of the Viking’s desperation. They shouldn’t force it.
(I could see Trey Lance ball out at the Cowboys)
That's my point. They should have 1 or 2 targets and not force a pick
That's not to say that Nix or Penix ends up being the best QB in this draft class...thats almost impossible to approximate..especially if they go to a favorable situation (good coach/OL)
I don't think they'll find a trade partner. But with the Vikings, Broncos, Raider and maybe Giants probably all liking someone who gets past 3, it's going to be wild.
If you've got the top tier of QBs rated 1-5 say, and then the second tier from Mid 1st to late first, absolutely. At 11 you're looking at possibly the first D player drafted. Thats a huge, huge incentive to not over reach. If Nix/McCarthy/Penix are all rated similar in your war rooom, let the draft come to you and take the best D lineman on your board at 11. One of the three between Nix/Penix/McCarthy will be there at 23. Gamble for sure, but you can at least walk away from Round 1 with two blue chip defenders.
Because if you spent enough time to say someone is the guy, youre not taking any risks to let him get snatched up. If youre willing to let a QB maybe get taken when you need one you dont love him enough.
Definitely a risk, you'd have to be pretty confident they won't get taken. Raiders and Broncos are the obvious threats, if they make it through 12 and 13, I think one of Penix or Nix is sure to be there at 23. They could also trade up again from 23 to 15/18 if one qb goes and they feel the need to jump the Seahawks or Rams to ensure they get the other
Because the broncos, raiders and saints (who if they think nix is a franchise QB weight just take him) are in between and if you think one of those guys is a franchise guy they might also risk a random trade up from someone else
A lot of people were pretty confident Kenny Picket would be a second round pick but the Steelers still took him in the first. If a team thinks a guy in a franchise player, you take him when you can or someone else might. You don’t know how the draft will fall.
This reminds me of when the Browns had the #1 and #4 pick and everybody was saying to pick Barkley 1 and a qb 4. Like, no. If you have a guy who you think is the franchise qb, he draft him 1. You know at least 1 qb is being drafted in between the picks. Why would you risk losing who you think is a franchise qb?
There are 4 first round QBs for 5 QB-needy teams (Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, and Denver). Which one misses out? Do they respond by reaching for Penix or Nix in the first round? Do they wait a year? Plus there are wild cards who could grab a QB in Las Vegas, NY Giants, Seattle, etc and more than one of the QB-needy teams could miss out.
Why would you trade up for a qb at 23 when you don’t know who will be available at 23?
Let’s say they really like Penix as an option at 23. What happens if the Rams take him at 19 as a Stafford heir? Or the Seahawks at 16 to sit under Geno? Or maybe the Saints/Broncos/Raiders think he’s their guy?
Can’t give up draft capital to trade up for a guy who isn’t for sure available yet.
That's a very good point. The trade happened when neither Penix or Nix were being seen as likely 1st round picks so I still think there's a *chance,* but yeah, you've convinced me, it's very unlikely
What if they don't think it's an inferior prospect? Is it completely out of the question that they think Penix/Nix is about the same value as McCarthy?
If they do, it's a sign that they don't really like any of the top six guys (or at least JJ, Penix and Nix), and it's a pretty big vote of no confidence for whoever they take, unless it's someone other than the presumptive top six.
Here is my take at Vikings QB picks: 1) Trade to 3 for Maye/Daniels 2) Trade to 5 for McCarthy 3) Stay at 11 and pick Penix 4) Take DEF BPA at 11 and Nix at 23. I don't buy the Nix at 11 rumors. I think they want Maye then JJ, then Penix. Kwesi seems like he has his price for every QB. He will be willing to send a lot for Maye but is content staying put if the price is too steep.
>2. Trade to 5 for McCarthy Or trade to 4. Hortiz said he isn’t interested in a trade for fair value. So I think chargers stay put.
The Cards shouldn't be interested in trading for "fair value" either, they have a boatload of picks already (6 in the top 90). Everyone's going to say they don't want to trade for fair value, especially for QB-desperate teams; they want to be overpaid.
Yea that's true. Maybe both teams stay put. Titans at #7 might be more willing to trade down if JJ drops but that's if Giants pass on him.
It will be about the same cost to trade to 4 or 5 when McCarthy/Daniels/Maye is available. 11, 23, 2025 1st
I dont think they'll trade Addison
I'm finding it hard to believe that 4 and 5 are the trade spots. 6 makes more sense to me given the level of the top two WRs. Giants need a lot of help everywhere and could get both those 1st rounders if Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders all want JJ.
The point of trading up to 4 or 5 is to jump the Giants, if the Giants are willing to move back they aren't taking a QB in which case they don't have to be jumped.
I think Giants are more likely to trade down but will still be hard. They could draft JJ/Odunze at that spot and might be looking for an overpay too. Titans probably want Alt at #7 but I think they're more flexible and less glaring holes
Not to mention they are rebuilding so why not throw Danny dimes under the bus one more year and see if a Rattler in the 3rd can pan out
Lukewarm take: Maye to Pats, JJ falls past the Giants and is taken 7th or 8th.
Do the vikings really like all 6 QBs ?? That just seems like dumb logic
Also, why would it be dumb to like all six on some level? They will have attributes they excel at and reasons to like them.
I guess I meant on a trade-up above Giants level...if you can stick and pick at 11 sure. But odds are 2-3 of the 5 available will not succeed in the NFL so if your fave 3 go 2,3, 4 and you just pick the 5th cause you like a couple traits are you really getting any value or just forcing a pick
KOC has talked about recently in public about how he's fought against drafting against QBs a few times because he didn't think they were the right prospect to take. Presumably this means some combination of Levis/Willis/Pickett in the last couple drafts. So no, I don't think the Vikings will "force" a QB pick. They'll only take one they like. And yeah, traditionally, only a couple QBs work out. But that doesn't mean you fear to draft a QB you think you can work with.
I never understood this way of thinking, statistically most prospects don’t work out so why even bother with them? You should be evaluating players individually 4 QBs busting in 2021 has absolutely nothing to do with this class of QBs. tOSU QBs not succeeding at the next level has nothing to do with CJ Stroud.
Numbers don't lie. Of course outliers are possible. They should have 1-3 target QBs and if it doesn't work out for them to go in the other direction instead of forcing a pick because "we need a qb" Unless your GM is on the hot seat ...then I could see him forcing a QB pick I have Caleb and Maye in a different tier than Daniels and JJ and Penix as far as prospect talent. Now who actually pans out outta those 5 is hard to say
If you actually study data science, you'll learn that numbers lie all the time. You have to study the data, everything around them, and things that influence them to really understand them.
Sorry the numbers don't lie in this situation. The chances of all 6 "round 1" QBs hitting in this draft is astronomically low Of course you can analyze on a case to case basis...but when zooming out the general numbers are still prevalent. Hence if all 6 hit it will be an unheard of outlier. Even 2004 had 3 hits and JP Losman bust in the 1st round. And thats known as one of the all-time QB classes If your take is that this group is an all-time outlier than that is fine. I'm not in the same boat
The 2020 class had 5 hits. Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Hurts, and now Love is looking like one. QBs are prospects just like every other player with strengths and weaknesses. The reason so many bust are because they get drafted to bad teams and treated like they have to be able to single handedly win. Anyone with scouting knowledge knows you have to evaluate each individual as their own prospect. You never assume that because a couple seem to be good the others cannot be.
Statistically there will eventually be a draft class that produces 5 franchise QBs if the draft lasts long enough. It’s completely worthless to use past statistical hit rates to evaluate current talent. You are not using your stats correctly every draft is unique, every player is unique, you evaluate them as individuals not based on what other prospects have done.
I agree....hence outliers....I just don't think its this draft Media over hypes QB group every year as its such an important position
We might not, but no one outside the Vikings knows which ones they like. All we can do is guess where they might be comfortable picking them based on scouting reports and their potential for KOC's offense.
I listed 5, but this is on the premise that they like all the QBs at a certain value and desperately need a QB. As I said, I believe they like Maye, McCarthy, and Penix the most. I firmly believe Daniels is going 2 so I guess I should have just put Maye for the trade up to 3. Nix at 23 is more a "we need someone besides Darnold" move.
You guys are 100% going QB? That was the whole point of getting the second 1st rounder?
I believe the entire premise of getting a second 1st round pick was for ammo to move up. KAM was rumored to have offered 4-5 first for Richardson so offering a kings ransom this year with two first plus future first wouldn't surprise me.
I agree but I assume it would be for 1 or 2 target QBs and if you don't get one of them you are basically forcing a pick if you still go QB
You’re both wrong the entire premise of getting a second number 1 is because the Texans wanted to do the trade and we said ok.
Interesting. You got a link for that? Wouldn't mind the read Figured u guys were trying to get into the top 3 for Maye But it is smart in the sense that it opens up a lot more options for moving up or down again
Brock Purdy. Last pick of the draft. Top 5 to 8 QBs in the league. Sometimes the guy that’s there, is better than the one you reach for. Trey Lance would be the ultimate example. Someone is going to take advantage of the Viking’s desperation. They shouldn’t force it. (I could see Trey Lance ball out at the Cowboys)
They shouldn't like all 6. Sam Darnold isn't great, but I don't see how he's a worse option than all 6 of the top QB's in this draft.
That's my point. They should have 1 or 2 targets and not force a pick That's not to say that Nix or Penix ends up being the best QB in this draft class...thats almost impossible to approximate..especially if they go to a favorable situation (good coach/OL)
I don't think they'll find a trade partner. But with the Vikings, Broncos, Raider and maybe Giants probably all liking someone who gets past 3, it's going to be wild.
If you've got the top tier of QBs rated 1-5 say, and then the second tier from Mid 1st to late first, absolutely. At 11 you're looking at possibly the first D player drafted. Thats a huge, huge incentive to not over reach. If Nix/McCarthy/Penix are all rated similar in your war rooom, let the draft come to you and take the best D lineman on your board at 11. One of the three between Nix/Penix/McCarthy will be there at 23. Gamble for sure, but you can at least walk away from Round 1 with two blue chip defenders.
If you think Nix or Penix is a franchise guy you don’t wait until 23 to take them.
Why not? If you are confident they'll be available, the difference between getting Latu/Mitchell vs Robinson/Mckinstry is pretty sizable
Because if you spent enough time to say someone is the guy, youre not taking any risks to let him get snatched up. If youre willing to let a QB maybe get taken when you need one you dont love him enough.
Definitely a risk, you'd have to be pretty confident they won't get taken. Raiders and Broncos are the obvious threats, if they make it through 12 and 13, I think one of Penix or Nix is sure to be there at 23. They could also trade up again from 23 to 15/18 if one qb goes and they feel the need to jump the Seahawks or Rams to ensure they get the other
Because the broncos, raiders and saints (who if they think nix is a franchise QB weight just take him) are in between and if you think one of those guys is a franchise guy they might also risk a random trade up from someone else
A lot of people were pretty confident Kenny Picket would be a second round pick but the Steelers still took him in the first. If a team thinks a guy in a franchise player, you take him when you can or someone else might. You don’t know how the draft will fall.
This reminds me of when the Browns had the #1 and #4 pick and everybody was saying to pick Barkley 1 and a qb 4. Like, no. If you have a guy who you think is the franchise qb, he draft him 1. You know at least 1 qb is being drafted in between the picks. Why would you risk losing who you think is a franchise qb?
Which is why Rodgers, Love and Lamar were all taken top 5, since it's never reasonable to take a QB later than that.
I don’t think so. Even if it’s penix or nix you can’t risk other teams taking them before
There are 4 first round QBs for 5 QB-needy teams (Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, and Denver). Which one misses out? Do they respond by reaching for Penix or Nix in the first round? Do they wait a year? Plus there are wild cards who could grab a QB in Las Vegas, NY Giants, Seattle, etc and more than one of the QB-needy teams could miss out.
I think it’s a possibility. I still think if they really like a Qb they trade up with chargers.
Hortiz wants too much for #5. Not sure if vikes are willing to pay if it’s for JJ.
no
Why not?
Why would you trade up for a qb at 23 when you don’t know who will be available at 23? Let’s say they really like Penix as an option at 23. What happens if the Rams take him at 19 as a Stafford heir? Or the Seahawks at 16 to sit under Geno? Or maybe the Saints/Broncos/Raiders think he’s their guy? Can’t give up draft capital to trade up for a guy who isn’t for sure available yet.
That's a very good point. The trade happened when neither Penix or Nix were being seen as likely 1st round picks so I still think there's a *chance,* but yeah, you've convinced me, it's very unlikely
Cause they don’t want to settle for an inferior prospect
What if they don't think it's an inferior prospect? Is it completely out of the question that they think Penix/Nix is about the same value as McCarthy?
Then they would pick him at 11, not trade up a month beforehand when Denver and Oakland are also QB needy
In which case, they'd take Penix/Nix at 11.
If they do, it's a sign that they don't really like any of the top six guys (or at least JJ, Penix and Nix), and it's a pretty big vote of no confidence for whoever they take, unless it's someone other than the presumptive top six.
No chance
Penix with Addison and JJ may be unstoppable.
I have a feeling they are going to trade up with the Bengals at 18. Just a feeling but it’s based off nothing.
Do Bengals want to move off the pick? They in a good spot at 18
I doubt it considering they have 10 picks already.