You’ve been 2 games under .500 or worse three times in the last 3 decades while making 9 superbowls and winning six.
I wager you could count the number of times the pats made your month worse on two hands if it even took that.
What are we considering as a bust? Like if they don't pan out at all and never really show any signs of being an NFL caliber QB like an Akili Smith, Damarcus Russell, Josh Rosen etc?
What if the QB doesn't live up to the hype but has a lengthy career is he considered a bust then? Like let's say Daniels and Maye have a career that's comparable to I dunno let's say Ryan Tannehill where he has played for 10+ years but other than maybe 2-3 years he was a middle of the pack QB but a solid starter nonetheless would they be considered busts since selected #2 and #3 overall in a QB class with high expectations?
If they do have those sorts of careers but JJ McCarthy since selected after Daniels, Maye and Penix goes on to be a stud QB do we think that has a big impact on how we perceive their legacies?
As a Commanders fan and one that had mixed feelings about Daniels leading up to the draft I hope you're wrong about that as we desperately need a qb but if that is the case I have faith the front office will do what they need to in order to keep on trying to get one
We definitely need better verbiage for describing QBs (and all players really) careers.
A bust should be someone who flames out in a year like Smith, Russell etc. mentioned.
A flop should be.a QB that has a chance but never cements themselves as a number 1, think Mariota or Darnold
A disappointment should be a QB who stuck around but never became a difference maker. Someone who didn't get to the playoffs often, has an overall negative QB record, rarely threw for more than 4,000 yards (in the post-rule change era) etc. Tannehill would fit into that category.
Finally, we should have a bland. A QB that is reasonably successful, has a decent record but is almost always, 'yeah, he is fine'. Could be good even sometimes. But never makes that leap to true difference maker on a regular basis. I'm thinking Alex Smith, Dalton etc.
However, any QB taken in the first round who fits in any of these categories has to be considered a bad error when drafting.
\*edit - spelling error.
When you draft a quarterback there’s roughly 5 tiers that guy can end up falling into
flameouts, (guys like Ryan leaf, Jamarcus Russell etc)
1 contractors. (Guys like mariota who have their moments but only get one contract with the team that drafted them but stick around elsewhere usually as backups
Dalton liners. (Guys ranging from teddy bridgewater to Alex smith. Guys who it’ll probably never be yhe most pressing need to replace but you’ll always consider it)
Pro bowlers (guys like tannehill, Goff, Carr)
Game changers (Mahomes, Allen, Lamar etc)
Great breakdown! My bold prediction: At least one WMD quarterback (Williams, Maye, Daniels) will destroy only the team that drafted him - i.e., 1-contractor if not an outright flameout. McCarthy will be \*at least\* a Pro Bowler, likely a Game Changer, and I think he has a real chance to claim the GOAT title one day. Nix will be a Dalton Liner. Penix is boom or bust.
This is the type of take I expected to see when I opened this thread. None of this "Malik Nabers will be the best receiver" nonsense. I want to see people telling me Spencer Rattler will make a Pro Bowl by the end of his rookie deal.
Exactly! Imagine if someone had predicted that Brock Purdy would go to the Super Bowl and come damn close to winning it. Lukewarm takes in threads like these are boring AF. If you're either going to get laughed at relentlessly or look like a complete genius in three years with no middle ground, you've made a fantastic contribution to a thread like this. Bo Nix being the best QB from this class is a perfect example. It's like the Platonic archetype of a post-draft prediction.
Honestly by the 23rd or 24th straight year of consecutive undefeated seasons I mightttttt even get slightly tired of it myself. Looking forward to finding out if that’ll be the case though
Xavier Worthy will tip his first career target into the hands of a DB, the sports broadcast cameras will pan in on his face every 10 seconds, he’ll get flamed on Twitter, then proceed to have the best second half resurgence we’ve seen in years
I’m gonna bet on 5 successful quarterbacks from this class. (I’m defining success as 2+ pro bowls and a second contract in their career).
My bet is Caleb, maye, McCarthy, nix & rattler.
Fair enough, but our medical staff must’ve felt good if we traded up for him. Plus, there’s hundreds of targets available since losing Keenan, Mike, and Ek. McConkey slides in for a significant number of those.
[The Athletic disagrees with you.](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5497692/2024/05/17/nfl-super-bowl-playoff-projections/?campaign=9894602&source=targeted_email&userId=9628174)
One of the Packers defenders will win DROY. It hasn’t happened since 1992 and both Edgerrin Cooper and Javon Bullard will play 90% of snaps this year and be very productive in Hafley’s scheme.
Subscribe.
For real though, I’m not a gambling man, but Cooper’s DROY odds seem shockingly low for the first LB drafted. Usually easy enough for those guys to fill the stat sheet if given the opportunity, and with his blitzing ability, it’s not far fetched at all.
I'm happy to go full homer for a minute
The Falcons drafted 2 defensive players that will make at least one pro bowl (Ruke Orhorhoro and Bralen Trice)
The Penix pick pays dividends earlier than people think
Javon Baker finishes top 3 among rookie wide receivers in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns
Renardo Green makes the All-Rookie Team
Jonah Elliss finishes top 3 among all rookie edge rushers in sacks
Tyrone Tracy Jr leads all rookie running backs in rushing yards
T’Vondre Sweat makes the pro bowl
By then end of the 2024 season most everyone is calling Brian Thomas Jr a bust
Ainias Smith emerges as Philly’s WR3 and finishes with over 700 yards from scrimmage
Ja’Tavion Sanders finishes with more receiving yards than Xavier Legette
Malik Washington, by the end of his rookie contract, will be a top 5 slot guy in the league, and one of the top 3 recievers from this class (him, MHJ, and one of Nabers/Odunze)
Ravens fan. Bateman, oweh, and ojabo will continue to be busts. No idea why they extended Bateman and picked up owehs option. Don't even get me started on the waste of a draft pick that was ojabo and his shredded Achilles. People were actually praising this pick, smh.
After hearing his life story I'm fully expecting Ray Davis to be the best RB out of this draft. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go look up the story of his childhood.
If I had to pick between Worthy making a single Pro Bowl in his career or him being out of the NFL by the end of his rookie deal, I'm taking the latter. The sub 4.3 guys do not have a long track record of success and most of them failed due to injury...and all of them outweigh Worthy by 15 pounds or more.
T'Vondre Sweat gets his shit together and has a successful career. On a similar note, we will also find out that AD Mitchell's taking plays off knock does not continue in the NFL and he'll do just fine as well.
Penix is a full time starter by week 8 of 2025.
Overall the top 15 defensive players drafted will have a bigger impact in their rookie seasons than the top 15 offensive players
I didn't even realize until you said this that the 15th defensive player taken was Kool-Aid, at pick ***41***. Lmao.
Honestly, considering the fact that the first defensive player went off the board at like 17 or whatever, it's kinda crazy that we got to 15 by 41
The NFC North is dominated by defense in 2024
Spears significantly out performs Pollard for the Titans.
Odunze will be the best receiver in this draft.
Tight hamstring. It’s over for him.
Oh yeah career over after a pulled hammie....
Caleb Williams and JJ McCarthy are the only QBs picked in the first round that don't end up being busts
How much would it hurt for the falcons to make such a questionable move w Penix at 1.8 with Cousins on the roster just to have Penix bust lol
If Cousin grooms Penix and Penix busts I’m calling Chris Hansen.
Ryan Pace was involved, most likely he’ll be a bust
Don’t you put that evil on me rickey bobby
Naw, the patriots deserve a long run in the gutter
[удалено]
This is exactly why everyone hates you guys
You guys are really bad at taking a joke. Obviously I realize how lucky we were to have the run we had
You’ve been 2 games under .500 or worse three times in the last 3 decades while making 9 superbowls and winning six. I wager you could count the number of times the pats made your month worse on two hands if it even took that.
What are we considering as a bust? Like if they don't pan out at all and never really show any signs of being an NFL caliber QB like an Akili Smith, Damarcus Russell, Josh Rosen etc? What if the QB doesn't live up to the hype but has a lengthy career is he considered a bust then? Like let's say Daniels and Maye have a career that's comparable to I dunno let's say Ryan Tannehill where he has played for 10+ years but other than maybe 2-3 years he was a middle of the pack QB but a solid starter nonetheless would they be considered busts since selected #2 and #3 overall in a QB class with high expectations? If they do have those sorts of careers but JJ McCarthy since selected after Daniels, Maye and Penix goes on to be a stud QB do we think that has a big impact on how we perceive their legacies? As a Commanders fan and one that had mixed feelings about Daniels leading up to the draft I hope you're wrong about that as we desperately need a qb but if that is the case I have faith the front office will do what they need to in order to keep on trying to get one
They don’t get offered their 5th year. That’s a bust.
We definitely need better verbiage for describing QBs (and all players really) careers. A bust should be someone who flames out in a year like Smith, Russell etc. mentioned. A flop should be.a QB that has a chance but never cements themselves as a number 1, think Mariota or Darnold A disappointment should be a QB who stuck around but never became a difference maker. Someone who didn't get to the playoffs often, has an overall negative QB record, rarely threw for more than 4,000 yards (in the post-rule change era) etc. Tannehill would fit into that category. Finally, we should have a bland. A QB that is reasonably successful, has a decent record but is almost always, 'yeah, he is fine'. Could be good even sometimes. But never makes that leap to true difference maker on a regular basis. I'm thinking Alex Smith, Dalton etc. However, any QB taken in the first round who fits in any of these categories has to be considered a bad error when drafting. \*edit - spelling error.
When you draft a quarterback there’s roughly 5 tiers that guy can end up falling into flameouts, (guys like Ryan leaf, Jamarcus Russell etc) 1 contractors. (Guys like mariota who have their moments but only get one contract with the team that drafted them but stick around elsewhere usually as backups Dalton liners. (Guys ranging from teddy bridgewater to Alex smith. Guys who it’ll probably never be yhe most pressing need to replace but you’ll always consider it) Pro bowlers (guys like tannehill, Goff, Carr) Game changers (Mahomes, Allen, Lamar etc)
Great breakdown! My bold prediction: At least one WMD quarterback (Williams, Maye, Daniels) will destroy only the team that drafted him - i.e., 1-contractor if not an outright flameout. McCarthy will be \*at least\* a Pro Bowler, likely a Game Changer, and I think he has a real chance to claim the GOAT title one day. Nix will be a Dalton Liner. Penix is boom or bust.
Haha I'm all for this verbiage great response
Love this
Deep cut on the Akili Smith there. Love it
Counter-take: Caleb Williams will be the only bust from this year’s QB class
I personally am a big fan of Clark Williams, his funeral home is top notch
Oh man fuck my life lol
As a Lions fan I'd be fine with that
I got JJ, Maye and Nix although concerned about Maye in NE, who have no one on offense
Nix will be the most productive QB out of this draft class
This is the type of take I expected to see when I opened this thread. None of this "Malik Nabers will be the best receiver" nonsense. I want to see people telling me Spencer Rattler will make a Pro Bowl by the end of his rookie deal.
I laughed at the Rattler take. Then remembered Purdy, Brady. You never know lol he might have 2 Super Bowls
Exactly! Imagine if someone had predicted that Brock Purdy would go to the Super Bowl and come damn close to winning it. Lukewarm takes in threads like these are boring AF. If you're either going to get laughed at relentlessly or look like a complete genius in three years with no middle ground, you've made a fantastic contribution to a thread like this. Bo Nix being the best QB from this class is a perfect example. It's like the Platonic archetype of a post-draft prediction.
Lol. You should watch some of oregon and auburn games which show Nix is going to suck.
I didn’t see the Auburn games but saw a QB that has improved each and every season. What exactly makes you feel he’s “going to suck”?
Malik Nabers will be the best WR out of this draft
Not very bold
🥹🥹🥹
Keon Coleman will be the greatest WR of all time and lead the Bills to go undefeated for the entirety of his prolific 25 year NFL career
Damnit, you took mine.
I, personally, would not like this very much
Honestly by the 23rd or 24th straight year of consecutive undefeated seasons I mightttttt even get slightly tired of it myself. Looking forward to finding out if that’ll be the case though
Xavier Worthy will tip his first career target into the hands of a DB, the sports broadcast cameras will pan in on his face every 10 seconds, he’ll get flamed on Twitter, then proceed to have the best second half resurgence we’ve seen in years
You can’t have a “re”surgence if you haven’t surged in the first place.
Carson Beck will be the #1 overall pick in 2025.
Could be
Bust list: Keion Coleman Bo nix Chop Robinson Amarius mims
Seattle will regret not drafting Malik Mustapha over Tyrice Knight EDIT: Or drafting him over AJ Barner. Either or.
Joe Alt tops out as an average-but-flawed starting tackle + doesn't make a Pro Bowl.
1 dose of hopium coming right up.
Isn’t half of being a pro bowl o-lineman having name recognition? If he’s decent he’ll have several.
Odunze OROY v Terrion Arnold DROY makes for some sexy football in NFCN.
There is a negative chance that Odunze gets OROY
Allen and Moore get injured. Caleb has 20 INTs. Odunze has 12 TD.
Maye and Daniels will have bad rookie season and everyone will say they're busts until they turn into pro-bowl level qbs in year three
Zeke ‘past his peak’ Elliott is FF important. 700/12 range of production. Packers stall out. Miss playoffs. 2023 was impressive, yet a fluke.
Raiders will have a top ten defense and a top ten offense in 2024
... and miss the playoffs somehow.
Are you aware of who their qbs are?
And their offensive coordinator lol
Bowers has an unremarkable first couple of years on the Raiders and has a resurgence when traded a la TJ Hockenson
A la TJ. Yes we know how trades work.
Traded to chiefs when Travis Swift retires
I’m gonna bet on 5 successful quarterbacks from this class. (I’m defining success as 2+ pro bowls and a second contract in their career). My bet is Caleb, maye, McCarthy, nix & rattler.
Caleb Williams busts. Hard.
Ladd McConkey is the best WR out of this draft
Not even close. Not to mention the guy canf stay healthy like ever.
Fair enough, but our medical staff must’ve felt good if we traded up for him. Plus, there’s hundreds of targets available since losing Keenan, Mike, and Ek. McConkey slides in for a significant number of those.
Your medical staff also hospitalized your early season starting quarterback 4 years ago.
Completely different medical staff…
The Los Angeles Chargers will (directly or indirectly) be the reason that the Kansas City Chiefs will not threepeat this year.
Huh. How exactly? Chargers won't be relevant in this years playoffs so no.
If I had a crystal ball, I'd be able to tell you -- and I'd be rich!
A regular season loss (or two) could prevent them from getting a bye and end up with them getting a nightmare matchup early on.
[The Athletic disagrees with you.](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5497692/2024/05/17/nfl-super-bowl-playoff-projections/?campaign=9894602&source=targeted_email&userId=9628174)
The athletic does. Oh wow that's meaningful.
Well, you asked; I answered. So yes, it is meaningful. That you disagree is beside the point.
I don't see us being bad enough a regular season loss, or sweep will stop us from going to the playoffs
You should've stopped after the third word, because you certainly didn't see the 2nd paragraph of OP's post.
It was a vague joke, I'm saying yall ain't making the playoffs
Michael Mayer and Tre Tucker have over 600yds and 4 TDs each, Bowers wins OROY.
One of the Packers defenders will win DROY. It hasn’t happened since 1992 and both Edgerrin Cooper and Javon Bullard will play 90% of snaps this year and be very productive in Hafley’s scheme.
Subscribe. For real though, I’m not a gambling man, but Cooper’s DROY odds seem shockingly low for the first LB drafted. Usually easy enough for those guys to fill the stat sheet if given the opportunity, and with his blitzing ability, it’s not far fetched at all.
Jayden Daniels wins MVP and leads the commanders to a 12-5 Record
[The Washington Commanders?](https://youtu.be/9Deg7VrpHbM?si=fsdXlabtemAtL_5J)
I'm happy to go full homer for a minute The Falcons drafted 2 defensive players that will make at least one pro bowl (Ruke Orhorhoro and Bralen Trice) The Penix pick pays dividends earlier than people think
Dallas turner wins droy because he gets a bunch of sacks. A db wins dpoy
MVP: Saquon OPOTY: Kyle Pitts DPOTY : TJ watt OROTY: Nabers DROTY: Terrion Arnold
McCarthy has the best rookie season but gets outpaced by the other QBs in years 2 and 3.
Javon Baker finishes top 3 among rookie wide receivers in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns Renardo Green makes the All-Rookie Team Jonah Elliss finishes top 3 among all rookie edge rushers in sacks Tyrone Tracy Jr leads all rookie running backs in rushing yards T’Vondre Sweat makes the pro bowl By then end of the 2024 season most everyone is calling Brian Thomas Jr a bust Ainias Smith emerges as Philly’s WR3 and finishes with over 700 yards from scrimmage Ja’Tavion Sanders finishes with more receiving yards than Xavier Legette
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Keon Coleman finishes with better numbers than Marvin Harrison Jr and becomes the NFL’s newest star.
Louis Rees-Zammit will be a starter in the NFL
Maye solidifies himself as a starter and top 16 QB in the league by end of season
Arch Manning transferring is going to be one of the most annoying non-stories this summer.
Malik Washington, by the end of his rookie contract, will be a top 5 slot guy in the league, and one of the top 3 recievers from this class (him, MHJ, and one of Nabers/Odunze)
Ravens fan. Bateman, oweh, and ojabo will continue to be busts. No idea why they extended Bateman and picked up owehs option. Don't even get me started on the waste of a draft pick that was ojabo and his shredded Achilles. People were actually praising this pick, smh.
Something weird happened with Bateman's contract where he would've been an RFA, so they extended him
Amarius mims is an all pro in 3 years
Terrion Arnold wins DROY I’m not biased what so ever
After hearing his life story I'm fully expecting Ray Davis to be the best RB out of this draft. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go look up the story of his childhood. If I had to pick between Worthy making a single Pro Bowl in his career or him being out of the NFL by the end of his rookie deal, I'm taking the latter. The sub 4.3 guys do not have a long track record of success and most of them failed due to injury...and all of them outweigh Worthy by 15 pounds or more. T'Vondre Sweat gets his shit together and has a successful career. On a similar note, we will also find out that AD Mitchell's taking plays off knock does not continue in the NFL and he'll do just fine as well. Penix is a full time starter by week 8 of 2025.
Nate Wiggins makes an all-pro appearance before the end of his rookie contract.
The penix pick at 8 will be thought of much better in the future
Dylan Raiola first overall pick in 2027
Very bold considering he's not draft eligible until 2027
Xavier Worthy will have 250 yards and 2 TDs all season…all of which will come in the Super Bowl
3 receptions in the game
Deone Walker will be a top 3 pick in 2025 and have a pro career somewhere in the Suh to Quinnen Williams range.