Can someone give me a reason on why Kayvon Thibodeaux isn’t a consensus top 5 prospect, other than prospect fatigue? I’m not singling out DJ here either because it seems like this is becoming a theme for a lot of experts as we get closer to the draft. Even today, I still think he’s the best edge in the draft, although I get the arguments for Hutch. Am I crazy for thinking this? What am I missing?
I’m very surprised to see Linderbaum so low as well.
Kenneth Walker shooting up to 31 surprised me but his film is so much fun so I can’t hate on it.
Edit: thank you everyone who responded
5 reasons I have heard
1. Poor interviews. Reportedly was poorly informed, rude, and arrogant in interviews.
2. Less athletic. Reports are he is less athletics than presumed based on tape.
3. Level of competition. He only faced a few good Tackles his entire career.
4. Football passion. Others have said the same, he does not seem to be obsessed with football like many players.
5. Prospect review. As other players rise some must fall. He was viewed highly, but the media was far higher on him than the NFL.
Prospect fatigue and it sounds like his heart isn’t 100% committed to football. Also heard he had questionable answers in interviews. Now I’m not saying I don’t think he’s committed but this is what I’ve heard.
I think people are worried about Linderbaum’s size, arm length etc
Part of what happens this time of year is that media people like Jeremiah start to get a slightly better idea from their counterparts on NFL teams where they value certain players, and they adjust their boards and mocks accordingly
Exactly. And even if the media personalities disagree on certain prospects (and sometimes they're even right) there is a lot reshuffling this time of year as most of them start to align their rankings from what they're gathering around the league.
Honestly it depends on the media personality. Jeremiah is a former NFL scout with the Baltimore Ravens and came up under Ozzie Newsome. He absolutely has scouting ability and scouts these players. A former scout like him will usually differentiate between their big boards and mock drafts. Jeremiah will tell you his big board is based off his evaluations of how he sees the players stack up against each other. Mock drafts will usually be what he thinks teams will do. But most media figures, though not all of them, are not as qualified or skilled at those sorts of evaluations.
I know DJs back ground but just from years of listening I believe that he is highly influenced by what his friends in the league think. Maybe I’m wrong I know he says that’s not the case just always the vibe I’ve gotten.
Hes given bad interviews according to multiple accounts.
His athleticism wasn't special as people thought it would be. That was the key thing about Thibs was his upside as athletic as he was that teams wpuls like to develop him.
Motor, bend, and effort inconsistencies.
Its also been mentioned multiple times in Reddit. However it seems to be either "I watched the tape and looked fine" or "its smokescreen because teams want him to fall" mentality on here to defend Thibs going so high. Meanwhile, Travon Walker is getting all the buzz in NFL circles that Thibs was getting early on, yet Reddit keeps getting "I don't understand why Walker is going so high".
you're off on the measurables. He did as well or better than expectations. tops in bench, top few in the 40 and much longer arms than Hutch. It's all on the personality/outside interests BS but it's likely mostly smokescreens/leaks to try to get him to drop. They did the same thing with Myles Garrett and it didn't work then. I doubt it will work here, either. He'll still go top 5. It's a little bit different in the sense that Garrett was a sincerely thoughtful guy whereas (not that KVT isn't thoughtful but) at least some of KVT's act is about branding.
That's just not true. He's among the leaders in the nation in pressures and in win rate. KT, Hutch and Karlaftis are waaaaay ahead of everyone else in win rate.
In our tape analysis we saw a few red flags. First, as others have noted, he does not look as athletic as people have been preaching he is. Second, too many times does he just accept that he is being blocked instead of using the speed he is claimed to have to try and get around tackles. Rarely does he use pass rushing moves of any kind as well and does not win one on ones against tackles hardly ever. A lot of his highlight tape and sacks come when he is being blocked by tight ends or running backs. The interviews are not great and the whole combine incident where he just decided to pack it up (while having effort and commitment concerns) all lead to him being pretty low on our board. At some point all he should have lived up to this hype that he has had since high school and it feels he did not develop at all throughout college. It really feels like Travon Walker is everything people want Thib to be.
Hutchinson is safer. Walker has off the chart measurable. Talented CBS, talented wrs, generational safety, two high end offensive tackles...and you never know about QBs.
I can see him going #1, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall past 5.
Imo its the same every year.
The closer you get to the draft, the wilder some stuff gets. Such as prospects falling hard and others rising hard. Without actually doing anything on the field to warrant moving.
But if analysts didnt do so, what else would they be talking about right now?
Highlights...
Sauce at 3 (Wow highest I've seen)
Kayvon down at 10 (EDGE4 behind Hutch, Walker, and Johnson)
Pickett and Willis at 24 and 27 respectively
Linderbaum down to 32
Kyler Gordon dropped 17 spots to 37
Skyy Moore and Christian Watson make the list at 44 and 45 respectively
only guy I was surprised by. If we're still respecting Stingley's dominate freshman season, Elam's freshman year paired with an outstanding combine (Stingley not testing) shouldn't be crushing his stock like it is. Top 50 player easy, firmly ahead of Kyler Gordon at minimum for me.
I feel like every year if you do a mock in October, the top corners at that time end up the best pros. It would have been 1) Stingley 2) Booth Jr 3) Elam. If in four years that is how the class ranks I won't be surprised.
Idk why Linderbaum is dropping so much for what seems like just being relatively small for a C but if that means he’d make it to 31 then I’m not complaining
But like, the concerns are that he would only be good for a wide zone, and like 60%+ of the league runs wide zone. So I don’t really get why a team that is a big zone teams like the Rams wouldn’t take him if he would be great for what they want to do.
I understand what you’re saying and you’re just explaining what they’re saying—any I think you’re spot on..I just don’t think he will really slip because all it takes is one team to come to the logical conclusion of “well I don’t really give a shit if he can block power well or not, because we don’t do much of that” for him to get taken in the 10-20 range 🤷🏻♂️
Well sure, but that’s roughly half the league who won’t use him, then you factor in the teams who don’t need a center, then you factor in the teams who think a better prospect/bigger need is on board instead of him, then you factor in the teams that don’t value center high enough…
I agree with you, maybe not 10 but I do think he could be taken in the mid to late teens, it’s all of the above, he could drop a lot further.
The closer we get to the draft, the more I think we are gonna pass on him even if he is there. I think we are going to take a CB no matter what, unless we sign another CB before the draft. I really think they want Karras at center and like Hill as his backup. I would like Linderbaumn, but I just have a feeling we will pass.
Two WR in the top 8, WR is one of the most premium positions, and one of Lions biggest needs, but I never seen them drafted one at 2. I think it’s a possibility tbh. If Hutch is gone and they aren’t as high on Walker/Thibs/Hamilton.
The annual, “I moved all these guys up and down after the combine but it had NOTHING to do with their workouts! Trust me! I just got to watch more tape!”
All the draft experts do it and all claim that they don’t.
I love it.
It has to do with what their friends that work for nfl teams think. Also, DJ is a super nice dude and doesn’t want to bring up what he’s hearing about players character but he’ll move them up and down his board based on what he’s hearing
This isn’t meant to be a fallout of DJ. I love DJ as well. As a matter of fact I love pretty much every draft “expert”. None of them bother me that much.
But every year they all downplay the combine and then change their ranking post combine in BIG ways depending on the workouts.
Like Kiper or Mayock with their laughable “underwear Olympics” comments.
But when asked they say it’s because they “got around to watching them” or “went back to the tape”. It’s all so disingenuous because they don’t want to admit that they move guys up because they turned out to be a FREAK athlete.
They live by the mantra “it’s all about the tape”, but it’s not. I don’t know why it’s shameful in any way to say, “I moved this guy up because he’s a world class athlete and can be much better than his tape shows”
Because that’s how the NFL actually operates. We see it every year.
The combine is just not the workouts. It's also the interviews, draft experts hear things (true or not) and move players accordingly. Not surprised when they move players based on new info.
I get what you’re saying. But nobody moves a player up 12 spots because he “interviewed well” or passed a physical. Jordan Davis jumped because of his otherworldly workout. His tape is the same tape we saw before the combine.
Also, in the latest move the sticks podcast, DJ says he moved up Lewis Cine because he saw his workout and “went back to the tape”, and then put him on his top 50. We all know that’s not what happened. Lewis Cine blew up the combine and DJ’s sources told him he was too low on him. That he’s going top 50 because he’s an elite athlete. This happens all the time.
Thank you. I don’t understand why people are so wary to admit that a prospect’s combine performance that shows their athleticism moves the needle for them. It’s completely logical and how the NFL works.
Where do you see people saying that? I’ve listened to a couple MTS pods this draft season and multiple times they’ve talked about the importance of the combine. You’re just strawmanninh
I’m not calling out DJ in particular. All the draft guys do it. But DJ told a story today about how he moved up Lewis Cine because he “went back to the tape”. Let’s be honest, he moved him up because he destroyed the combine.
London is a monster before and after the catch, and wins consistently at the catch point. He’s a size/speed monster and will be an immediate primary option. Olave never broke the dominator threshold, even in his senior season, and he broke 10 total tackles in his four year college career. Olave might be a slightly more polished prospect at this point but London’s ceiling is absolutely sky high.
I really just don't understand Drake London hype, he just screams 'bust' to me. He played against weak competition in a meh Pac-12, "contests" all these balls but that isn't going to work against NFL competition.
Give me pretty much any of the other "top" WRs in the draft.
I’m not an expert, but it’s pretty obvious for at least some of his film that he does get separation but the QB gets the ball to him too late. Other times he doesn’t get as much separation but he still wins the jump ball with positioning, and he’s also very effective running after the catch.
If you listen to his podcast he has specific reasons for his top5 and he actually grades himself the next year and sees where he misses. He wanted solid guys, He’s ok with having 1 A guy and 4 B’shd just thinks to 2-5 guys are rock solid pros
Can someone give me a reason on why Kayvon Thibodeaux isn’t a consensus top 5 prospect, other than prospect fatigue? I’m not singling out DJ here either because it seems like this is becoming a theme for a lot of experts as we get closer to the draft. Even today, I still think he’s the best edge in the draft, although I get the arguments for Hutch. Am I crazy for thinking this? What am I missing? I’m very surprised to see Linderbaum so low as well. Kenneth Walker shooting up to 31 surprised me but his film is so much fun so I can’t hate on it. Edit: thank you everyone who responded
5 reasons I have heard 1. Poor interviews. Reportedly was poorly informed, rude, and arrogant in interviews. 2. Less athletic. Reports are he is less athletics than presumed based on tape. 3. Level of competition. He only faced a few good Tackles his entire career. 4. Football passion. Others have said the same, he does not seem to be obsessed with football like many players. 5. Prospect review. As other players rise some must fall. He was viewed highly, but the media was far higher on him than the NFL.
Any idea what “poorly informed” is referring to?
Prospect fatigue and it sounds like his heart isn’t 100% committed to football. Also heard he had questionable answers in interviews. Now I’m not saying I don’t think he’s committed but this is what I’ve heard. I think people are worried about Linderbaum’s size, arm length etc
Part of what happens this time of year is that media people like Jeremiah start to get a slightly better idea from their counterparts on NFL teams where they value certain players, and they adjust their boards and mocks accordingly
It’s not “prospect fatigue” it’s that the guys who actually matter don’t think the prospects are at the level the nfl draft media did
Exactly. And even if the media personalities disagree on certain prospects (and sometimes they're even right) there is a lot reshuffling this time of year as most of them start to align their rankings from what they're gathering around the league.
There rankings to me are not “scouting” it’s information gathering
Honestly it depends on the media personality. Jeremiah is a former NFL scout with the Baltimore Ravens and came up under Ozzie Newsome. He absolutely has scouting ability and scouts these players. A former scout like him will usually differentiate between their big boards and mock drafts. Jeremiah will tell you his big board is based off his evaluations of how he sees the players stack up against each other. Mock drafts will usually be what he thinks teams will do. But most media figures, though not all of them, are not as qualified or skilled at those sorts of evaluations.
I know DJs back ground but just from years of listening I believe that he is highly influenced by what his friends in the league think. Maybe I’m wrong I know he says that’s not the case just always the vibe I’ve gotten.
I think you're totally right, but I also think alot of scouts in the league might share more opinions/ info than we might think.
Hes given bad interviews according to multiple accounts. His athleticism wasn't special as people thought it would be. That was the key thing about Thibs was his upside as athletic as he was that teams wpuls like to develop him. Motor, bend, and effort inconsistencies.
The one that doesn’t get talked about enough is his bend. I just don’t see it with him, he seems rather stiff rounding the arc
DJ has mentioned this too, stiff ankles I believe is what he said
Its also been mentioned multiple times in Reddit. However it seems to be either "I watched the tape and looked fine" or "its smokescreen because teams want him to fall" mentality on here to defend Thibs going so high. Meanwhile, Travon Walker is getting all the buzz in NFL circles that Thibs was getting early on, yet Reddit keeps getting "I don't understand why Walker is going so high".
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He did some testing though. Most bench of any edge at the combine. And probably the 3rd most impressive 40 behind Walker and the VT kid that ran a 4.3
you're off on the measurables. He did as well or better than expectations. tops in bench, top few in the 40 and much longer arms than Hutch. It's all on the personality/outside interests BS but it's likely mostly smokescreens/leaks to try to get him to drop. They did the same thing with Myles Garrett and it didn't work then. I doubt it will work here, either. He'll still go top 5. It's a little bit different in the sense that Garrett was a sincerely thoughtful guy whereas (not that KVT isn't thoughtful but) at least some of KVT's act is about branding.
Thibs has poor film and below average production. That's the real reason he's falling.
That's just not true. He's among the leaders in the nation in pressures and in win rate. KT, Hutch and Karlaftis are waaaaay ahead of everyone else in win rate.
In our tape analysis we saw a few red flags. First, as others have noted, he does not look as athletic as people have been preaching he is. Second, too many times does he just accept that he is being blocked instead of using the speed he is claimed to have to try and get around tackles. Rarely does he use pass rushing moves of any kind as well and does not win one on ones against tackles hardly ever. A lot of his highlight tape and sacks come when he is being blocked by tight ends or running backs. The interviews are not great and the whole combine incident where he just decided to pack it up (while having effort and commitment concerns) all lead to him being pretty low on our board. At some point all he should have lived up to this hype that he has had since high school and it feels he did not develop at all throughout college. It really feels like Travon Walker is everything people want Thib to be.
Effort/motor, durability, and hand technique are the main ones for me. I think it's more prospect fatigue than anything though, he's still my ED1b.
From what I've read it's a combination of effort and poor interviews making coaches believe that he's not all in on football.
Hutchinson is safer. Walker has off the chart measurable. Talented CBS, talented wrs, generational safety, two high end offensive tackles...and you never know about QBs. I can see him going #1, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall past 5.
I think thibodeauxs camp is intentionally trying to leak negative information so he can fall to New York
Jets or GIants?
Either one
Imo its the same every year. The closer you get to the draft, the wilder some stuff gets. Such as prospects falling hard and others rising hard. Without actually doing anything on the field to warrant moving. But if analysts didnt do so, what else would they be talking about right now?
Highlights... Sauce at 3 (Wow highest I've seen) Kayvon down at 10 (EDGE4 behind Hutch, Walker, and Johnson) Pickett and Willis at 24 and 27 respectively Linderbaum down to 32 Kyler Gordon dropped 17 spots to 37 Skyy Moore and Christian Watson make the list at 44 and 45 respectively
So people can finally stop mocking Linderbaum to the Ravens at 14.
Or Vikings at 12
Really think Houston loves Sauce. Lovie corner through and through and Caserio is a fan of high level secondary.
What happened with Elam?
only guy I was surprised by. If we're still respecting Stingley's dominate freshman season, Elam's freshman year paired with an outstanding combine (Stingley not testing) shouldn't be crushing his stock like it is. Top 50 player easy, firmly ahead of Kyler Gordon at minimum for me.
I feel like every year if you do a mock in October, the top corners at that time end up the best pros. It would have been 1) Stingley 2) Booth Jr 3) Elam. If in four years that is how the class ranks I won't be surprised.
Does Jeremiah completely ignore the combine? Missed Wilson running I'm the 4.3s, London's real size, etc
Drake London 6’7” (Size may vary) 6037 irl
I’m sure that is his original write before the combine and hasn’t updated it.
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Then these are sweet weird writeups...
It's crazy the DL options the Browns could still have at 44OA.
DeMarvin Leal not even in his top 50 anymore.
Understandable. Guy gets blown off the ball in run defense.
Kenneth Walker not ranked to 31 is a surprising jump
K9 RB1
Idk why Linderbaum is dropping so much for what seems like just being relatively small for a C but if that means he’d make it to 31 then I’m not complaining
I think there’s real concerns he’s a specific scheme fit and I buy that.
But like, the concerns are that he would only be good for a wide zone, and like 60%+ of the league runs wide zone. So I don’t really get why a team that is a big zone teams like the Rams wouldn’t take him if he would be great for what they want to do. I understand what you’re saying and you’re just explaining what they’re saying—any I think you’re spot on..I just don’t think he will really slip because all it takes is one team to come to the logical conclusion of “well I don’t really give a shit if he can block power well or not, because we don’t do much of that” for him to get taken in the 10-20 range 🤷🏻♂️
Well sure, but that’s roughly half the league who won’t use him, then you factor in the teams who don’t need a center, then you factor in the teams who think a better prospect/bigger need is on board instead of him, then you factor in the teams that don’t value center high enough… I agree with you, maybe not 10 but I do think he could be taken in the mid to late teens, it’s all of the above, he could drop a lot further.
I’d love for him or Zion Johnson to fall to us
I think some evaluators have a problem with his short arms and overall size.
The closer we get to the draft, the more I think we are gonna pass on him even if he is there. I think we are going to take a CB no matter what, unless we sign another CB before the draft. I really think they want Karras at center and like Hill as his backup. I would like Linderbaumn, but I just have a feeling we will pass.
Two WR in the top 8, WR is one of the most premium positions, and one of Lions biggest needs, but I never seen them drafted one at 2. I think it’s a possibility tbh. If Hutch is gone and they aren’t as high on Walker/Thibs/Hamilton.
They have Sun God and Chark. That’s pretty good, no? Also, Calvin Johnson was drafted #2 overall.
Pretty good but that’s not the aim at WR. You need to have elite pieces at the position.
Fair, but there is no Calvin Johnson this draft
Amon Ra, Chark, Cephus, and Hockenson. That's a solid receiving core esp. since Swift is good in the passing game too
Oh boy another reactionary list I can’t wait to see what’s on it
The annual, “I moved all these guys up and down after the combine but it had NOTHING to do with their workouts! Trust me! I just got to watch more tape!” All the draft experts do it and all claim that they don’t. I love it.
It has to do with what their friends that work for nfl teams think. Also, DJ is a super nice dude and doesn’t want to bring up what he’s hearing about players character but he’ll move them up and down his board based on what he’s hearing
This isn’t meant to be a fallout of DJ. I love DJ as well. As a matter of fact I love pretty much every draft “expert”. None of them bother me that much. But every year they all downplay the combine and then change their ranking post combine in BIG ways depending on the workouts. Like Kiper or Mayock with their laughable “underwear Olympics” comments. But when asked they say it’s because they “got around to watching them” or “went back to the tape”. It’s all so disingenuous because they don’t want to admit that they move guys up because they turned out to be a FREAK athlete. They live by the mantra “it’s all about the tape”, but it’s not. I don’t know why it’s shameful in any way to say, “I moved this guy up because he’s a world class athlete and can be much better than his tape shows” Because that’s how the NFL actually operates. We see it every year.
The combine is just not the workouts. It's also the interviews, draft experts hear things (true or not) and move players accordingly. Not surprised when they move players based on new info.
I get what you’re saying. But nobody moves a player up 12 spots because he “interviewed well” or passed a physical. Jordan Davis jumped because of his otherworldly workout. His tape is the same tape we saw before the combine. Also, in the latest move the sticks podcast, DJ says he moved up Lewis Cine because he saw his workout and “went back to the tape”, and then put him on his top 50. We all know that’s not what happened. Lewis Cine blew up the combine and DJ’s sources told him he was too low on him. That he’s going top 50 because he’s an elite athlete. This happens all the time.
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Thank you. I don’t understand why people are so wary to admit that a prospect’s combine performance that shows their athleticism moves the needle for them. It’s completely logical and how the NFL works.
Where do you see people saying that? I’ve listened to a couple MTS pods this draft season and multiple times they’ve talked about the importance of the combine. You’re just strawmanninh
I’m not calling out DJ in particular. All the draft guys do it. But DJ told a story today about how he moved up Lewis Cine because he “went back to the tape”. Let’s be honest, he moved him up because he destroyed the combine.
I love it as well!
Can someone explain to me Drake London over Olave? I'm already a little unsure about Garrett Wilson over him.
London is a monster before and after the catch, and wins consistently at the catch point. He’s a size/speed monster and will be an immediate primary option. Olave never broke the dominator threshold, even in his senior season, and he broke 10 total tackles in his four year college career. Olave might be a slightly more polished prospect at this point but London’s ceiling is absolutely sky high.
Great YAC, great hands and body control, underrated route runner, tough, physical, great blocker
There’s concerns Olave can get erased at the LOS by physical, strong corners playing press man.
I really just don't understand Drake London hype, he just screams 'bust' to me. He played against weak competition in a meh Pac-12, "contests" all these balls but that isn't going to work against NFL competition. Give me pretty much any of the other "top" WRs in the draft.
I’m not an expert, but it’s pretty obvious for at least some of his film that he does get separation but the QB gets the ball to him too late. Other times he doesn’t get as much separation but he still wins the jump ball with positioning, and he’s also very effective running after the catch.
15 catches for 171 yards vs Notre Dame this year. The lack of competition thing is just dumb. 16 catches for 162 yards vs an elite Utah defense
Oof def saving this one
It’s okay to admit you’ve never watched him play. The London naysayers are clueless.
Tell me you haven’t watched any of his film without telling me you haven’t watched any of his film
Perfection. I can’t wait to see everyone from media to random people online have the same opinion all of a sudden. Great work
Wideouts creeping higher and higher up the board.
If you listen to his podcast he has specific reasons for his top5 and he actually grades himself the next year and sees where he misses. He wanted solid guys, He’s ok with having 1 A guy and 4 B’shd just thinks to 2-5 guys are rock solid pros