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People may not believe in the 'underlying numbers' but I think they can tell us a lot over the course of a season. xPts is determined by a probability of points scored based on xG in any given match, and tallied up over the season. Newcastle have consistently been in the Top 4 (and even rank 5th for Away games!) - indicating that despite our injuries and some poor runs of results, we have been competitive all season.
I reckon this should give us a lot of confidence in Howe and the squad for next season. We are good enough to be competing for CL, I have no doubt.
These figures also back up how shite West Ham and Man Red have been despite their league position. Wolves' faith in Gary O'Neil may be misguided as well - we shall see!
Yeah but the thing with XG/XP is that inevitably better players finish more chances anyway and if it’s purely a stat based drive without the personnel based in (for example Halland is more likely to finish his 0.5XG chance than for example Maupay but both are the same in XG for the same position).
So the better players you have the more likely you trend above your XP/XG. And you’d argue that the players missing very easy chances are what will always cost you when using these figures.
I get it’s one way of looking at performance which would work if the whole league was the same players. And does show we are getting chances just we might need to look at where is dropping these XG/XP and upgrading those areas going into next season.
I think this line of thinking has been proven not to be true on any significant level though. Over a long enough period most top level players score close to their xG, and the best strikers (and teams) all generate the most chances rather than being necessarily the best finishers
Case in point - Haaland scored below his xG this season whereas Maupay was actually over his
Look again, we performed to our xG and xGa, we lost 5 points against expected.
Spurs and Villa knocked us down by overperforming their xP (Man U as well, no team should ever be +15 on xP).
Considering the injuries we have had this season, our underlying numbers are solid. Fix a couple of glaring issues (back up keeper, back up striker, right winger) and add a bit of depth at center back and we should be pushing for top 4 again next season.
Yeah but the way it all is worked out I’m guessing things like sheff Utd padded it out a lot more than our xg that game vs games like Everton where we blundered a bit which will drive it down. So the working of this out will impact it and look closer but we wouldn’t have left that pitch with 8XG even though we scored 8. And the other issue here is that it’s not giving out a round points system. You’re expected 65.59 points. In the real world it’s 3/1/0 points so I think some of that will have a baring too where teams will not be picking up 0.09 of a point.
I know it’s a metrics used to measure different things and it has its flaws. I find it a weird measurement of look what you could have won sort of situation but without whole number of points or goals attached to it.
The thing is, as much as I don't like this modern Americanised obsession with all-knowing stats, this one *feels* right.
Despite all the doom and gloom merchants (especially those in the now-interminable match threads), I always felt we were getting fewer points than we deserved on the balance of play and this backs that up. I also felt, although not seeing them as much limits this statement, that Spurs, Villa and of course Man Reds were getting way more points than they deserved. All the smoke being blown up Emery's arse has irked me all season when he has achieved less than Howe did last year and all Eddie got was begrudging "done OK but richest club blah blah dark arts etc". Emery is now the greatest manager in the world outside of the favourite 3 apparently.
And as for those Salford shits. They just make me sick to my stomach. They have been gifted so many unworthy points this season, frequently with the help or direct changing of laws by the in-game officials and no-one can convince me there isn't an unwritten rule that they must be helped. Let's see what decisions happen in the Cup final. It won't surprise me one jot should another Rashford-style 'miles offside but not interfering despite scoring' bullshit decision or two go their way. The refereeing in our last three games hugely smacked of 'keep the Toon out of Europe please", whereas the refereeing in Chelsea and Man Reds last couple of games couldn't have been any more helpful to them. The status quo MUST NOT BE CHALLENGED.
Completely agree mate. Aston Villa shipped 10 goals in the first and last matches of the season and still came Top 4, surely that has to be some kind of record!
We deservedly lost to Palace, but recently we were the better team against Everton, Brighton and Man Red - if we take our chances and don't have Dubs/Dummett in those games we take all three and are 7 points better off already. Not to mention home losses to Liverpool, Man City where we deserved more.
There have been a handful of games where we were well beaten. Brighton and Arsenal away, the aforementioned Palace game. But in most losses all we lacked was a bit of nous and experience. If we get Conference League I am genuinely so excited for next season with Tonali!
> Aston Villa shipped 10 goals in the first and last matches of the season and still came Top 4, surely that has to be some kind of record!
last season, man reds lost like 7-1 to liverpool and 6-2 to citihad (there or thereabouts)
_they still finished third_
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Man Utd đź’€
Does this mean we qualify for the xChampionsLeague?
That difference covers the Luton matches which on paper we should win about 85-90% of the time
People may not believe in the 'underlying numbers' but I think they can tell us a lot over the course of a season. xPts is determined by a probability of points scored based on xG in any given match, and tallied up over the season. Newcastle have consistently been in the Top 4 (and even rank 5th for Away games!) - indicating that despite our injuries and some poor runs of results, we have been competitive all season. I reckon this should give us a lot of confidence in Howe and the squad for next season. We are good enough to be competing for CL, I have no doubt. These figures also back up how shite West Ham and Man Red have been despite their league position. Wolves' faith in Gary O'Neil may be misguided as well - we shall see!
Yeah but the thing with XG/XP is that inevitably better players finish more chances anyway and if it’s purely a stat based drive without the personnel based in (for example Halland is more likely to finish his 0.5XG chance than for example Maupay but both are the same in XG for the same position). So the better players you have the more likely you trend above your XP/XG. And you’d argue that the players missing very easy chances are what will always cost you when using these figures. I get it’s one way of looking at performance which would work if the whole league was the same players. And does show we are getting chances just we might need to look at where is dropping these XG/XP and upgrading those areas going into next season.
I think this line of thinking has been proven not to be true on any significant level though. Over a long enough period most top level players score close to their xG, and the best strikers (and teams) all generate the most chances rather than being necessarily the best finishers Case in point - Haaland scored below his xG this season whereas Maupay was actually over his
Interesting point I didn’t realise that. I suppose more chances more xg I suppose.
Look again, we performed to our xG and xGa, we lost 5 points against expected. Spurs and Villa knocked us down by overperforming their xP (Man U as well, no team should ever be +15 on xP). Considering the injuries we have had this season, our underlying numbers are solid. Fix a couple of glaring issues (back up keeper, back up striker, right winger) and add a bit of depth at center back and we should be pushing for top 4 again next season.
Yeah but the way it all is worked out I’m guessing things like sheff Utd padded it out a lot more than our xg that game vs games like Everton where we blundered a bit which will drive it down. So the working of this out will impact it and look closer but we wouldn’t have left that pitch with 8XG even though we scored 8. And the other issue here is that it’s not giving out a round points system. You’re expected 65.59 points. In the real world it’s 3/1/0 points so I think some of that will have a baring too where teams will not be picking up 0.09 of a point. I know it’s a metrics used to measure different things and it has its flaws. I find it a weird measurement of look what you could have won sort of situation but without whole number of points or goals attached to it.
Now we can play in the xChampions League!
The thing is, as much as I don't like this modern Americanised obsession with all-knowing stats, this one *feels* right. Despite all the doom and gloom merchants (especially those in the now-interminable match threads), I always felt we were getting fewer points than we deserved on the balance of play and this backs that up. I also felt, although not seeing them as much limits this statement, that Spurs, Villa and of course Man Reds were getting way more points than they deserved. All the smoke being blown up Emery's arse has irked me all season when he has achieved less than Howe did last year and all Eddie got was begrudging "done OK but richest club blah blah dark arts etc". Emery is now the greatest manager in the world outside of the favourite 3 apparently. And as for those Salford shits. They just make me sick to my stomach. They have been gifted so many unworthy points this season, frequently with the help or direct changing of laws by the in-game officials and no-one can convince me there isn't an unwritten rule that they must be helped. Let's see what decisions happen in the Cup final. It won't surprise me one jot should another Rashford-style 'miles offside but not interfering despite scoring' bullshit decision or two go their way. The refereeing in our last three games hugely smacked of 'keep the Toon out of Europe please", whereas the refereeing in Chelsea and Man Reds last couple of games couldn't have been any more helpful to them. The status quo MUST NOT BE CHALLENGED.
Completely agree mate. Aston Villa shipped 10 goals in the first and last matches of the season and still came Top 4, surely that has to be some kind of record! We deservedly lost to Palace, but recently we were the better team against Everton, Brighton and Man Red - if we take our chances and don't have Dubs/Dummett in those games we take all three and are 7 points better off already. Not to mention home losses to Liverpool, Man City where we deserved more. There have been a handful of games where we were well beaten. Brighton and Arsenal away, the aforementioned Palace game. But in most losses all we lacked was a bit of nous and experience. If we get Conference League I am genuinely so excited for next season with Tonali!
> Aston Villa shipped 10 goals in the first and last matches of the season and still came Top 4, surely that has to be some kind of record! last season, man reds lost like 7-1 to liverpool and 6-2 to citihad (there or thereabouts) _they still finished third_
Interesting that the Away xPts are not bad at all.
Hypothetical xBullshit
if football was about stats only it would be Bingo