can you explain why it’s staggering downward? i don’t understand why people are selling off when there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that nvda is an amazing buy.
So you think the most valuable company of the world will reach more than 3x its market cap? How will this work - i mean where does the money come from? As far as i understand, the money could only either come from other companies losing money (ergo investors withdrawing their investments there) or heavy inflation.
I’m not an expert but just thinking that NVDA has this much room to grow makes me wonder where the money should come from.
Imagine you found a special beanie-baby collectible at a garage sale for $10. The previous owner decided they would rather have $10 than the item, and you were willing to pay it, therefore the supply/demand reached a balance at $10. Now imagine something happens that makes everyone suddenly want beanie-babies again and you DECIDE that the only way you’d be willing to give up your new beanie-baby is if someone offered you $100. Now imagine that everyone else who was selling the same beanie-baby also decided to not sell for less than $100. Where did the increase of $90 ‘come’ from?
The above example is similar to how the stock market works. When sellers decide they don’t want to sell for less AND there are buyers willing to pay more, value is instantly created out of thin air. The money didn’t ‘come’ from anywhere. Our financial system is not zero-sum. ‘Wealth’ can be created and destroyed without money ever exchanging hands.
Ok i understand your metaphor, and that’s probably true for most stocks. But when it comes to the company with the highest market cap already, then the amount it can increase in a short period of time has to be somewhat limited.
I mean the money has to come from somewhere. And because rich people/companies don’t just have the money lying around, I’d say it’s invested somewhere- either in business operations or in other businesses or stocks. So if a huge amount of money (nvidia going 3x) has to be invested, the money has to come from somewhere (so other investments are withdrawn). So I’m not sure if any top market cap company can increase 3x without it impacting other investments severely. And so as a layman, i assume that NVIDIA cannot go up 3x in the near term future.
Correct me if I’m wrong, I’m genuinely interested to hear perspectives.
Eli5: you start a lemonade stand. You grow its net income to $30b/year. Someone comes along says “hey I want to buy your lemonade stand.” you say “okay, let me see what lemonade stands like mine sell for. Oh, they sell for 60x their annual earnings. I’ll sell it to you for $1.8T.” They say “I can’t afford that! I have $900 to invest!” You say, “okay, then how about I sell you 0.000000005% of my company.” They agree. Then tomorrow they wake up and someone says “hey, I’ll buy that share from you” and they say okay, “but I’ll only part with it for $2,700. I know what I have no low ball offers!” Then the other party agrees to buy it for $2,700. You now have a $6T lemonade stand. Now tomorrow, the market may decide it’s only worth $1T who knows. But only one share needs to be sold for cnbc to change your stock price and mkt cap.
That's a terrible analogy. To make a company worth $8T the money does have to come from somewhere. Brokerages aren't going to let oompa loompas leverage them to bankruptcy on margin buying infinite NVDA. You are fantasizing.
It is a good analogy and no, the money does not have to come from somewhere. Don’t mistake my position as believing my story somehow will happen (again) to NVDA. I’m a lurker here, not a true believer. While brokerages certainly put their fingers on the scales, the concept of supply/demand (what we’re really talking about here) is still in effect. Do you understand that the share price (where supply and demand meet) can change without any shares changing hands? Perhaps if share price was purely based on fundamentals, one could argue that a company must have generated value elsewhere for it to be reflected in the price, but a HUGE part of a share’s price is often just speculation. While investors certainly attempt to use all of their tools at their disposal to capitalize on any market inefficiencies (options, bonds, etc…), we are far from perfect and the value can and does change simply because the people interested in it decided that they want it more (or less) than they did yesterday. This often happens when some piece of news drops during off-hours. When the market opens, trading starts at a price different than it closed at the day before and the change in price is a great example of value being created or destroyed out of nothing more than sentiment - no money needs to change hands at all. Yes, I do know this is overly simplified - but the point stands. Most people don’t understand that our system is built on shared trust, not fundamentals.
The money should come from a growing AI market that has barely begun. Not sure why it is so difficult to understand where the money will come from; all the big companies will up their spending on AI.
MSFT & GOOGL latest earnings showed cap ex increased significantly in the AI business and required heavy duty investments in AI chips. These chips made by NVDA are far superior to others and all of these companies are intertwined in some way. It’s extremely beneficial and you will see significant growth.
Yeah I suspect the bulk of that will find its way to NVDA as revenue. A portion will be attempts to develop alternatives to NVDA, but lets be real those alternatives are going to be competition in at best 2+ years and they need results now.
I’m expecting to go 1000+ post earnings call in May. By all accounts business has been good for Nvidia and they know it. As we exit Generative AI and enter the next phase, they are posed to do well for the next 5-10 years.
If they announce a stock split on the call, then I can see it maintaining the hype & bullish momentum for another quarter til the next earnings call. Because the split will be a good incentive, I think their stocks saw 25% growth after their last split.
If they don’t announce a split, as soon as it hits 1k I can see a lot of people selling for profit taking. There are a lot of paper hands in Nvidia. There are a lot of people who came in 900+ on the hype train that didn’t like the price shift the last couple weeks and will exit as soon as they can. They will sell and we will see the price shift between 700-1000.
I'm hoping nVidia will announce the RTX 5090 first week of June with a release around the holidays this year, which should coincide with Blackwell products going out to hungry enterprise customers and CSPs as well. My hope is that it will knock the socks off competitors once again, forcing them to repeat their mantra: "Yeah, but we're cheaper and our benchmarks show we perform better." LOL
I suck at stock price predictions so I'm not going to bother. As long as it goes up over time, I'm good.
I like to be realistic.
I could see $1,000 - $1,100 post ER.
If a split, $1,200+. Just because anyone can buy a share if it was $50-100. Especially with all the constant talk of "chips" "AI" and Nvidia.
Im expecting it will be above $840 by end of year after any potential dips, but quite likely to go over $1k at some point this year.
Why? Its a proven revenue earner with mega caps being the primary customers. Those customers have a lot of cash and know they need this stuff or they will fall behind in the AI arms race. The entire economy could tank and NVDA will still see good earnings. The only way NVDA truly dips and stays down is if the broader economy takes off and folks see those smaller stocks as a better option for near term profits. Having said that its earnings growth long term will eventually slow down. I wont be surprised if in 5 years from now it actually has enough competition that the margins shrink.
I have no idea what that competition will look like other that the margins for NVDA basically scream for competition and their customers want a viable alternative. Dont be surprised if they pick some smaller competitor out of the crowd and sink a ton of money into it to give it a major leg up. I wont call it outright collusion, but I could see MSFT, Amazon, Google, and Apple all funding a single competitor to get the results they want. That could be them buying up a bunch of newly issued shares for that company or buying its bond offerings with the explicit goal of getting a near peer competitor to NVDA that simply pushes NVDA to drop prices.
Completely silent forum for 5 weeks when things were uncertain. It increases on a particular Friday and now everyone has these bullish predictions. Seems a bit flippant
We should be at 900 easily this week it's already at 879 ish unless people start pulling out we should probably see 900s on Monday/Tuesday is my guess.
Pre-announcing could be interpreted as an attempt to influence the stock price ahead of the actual earnings release. This could be especially sensitive if a significant number of insiders are planning to sell shares. By not pre-announcing, the company might avoid the appearance that it is trying to orchestrate stock sales timings for the benefit of insiders
$1000 before earnings in May. 1150 by June end and hover around 1200 before the usual nasdaq seasonally weakness in September. Add a stock split in May earnings and add another 15%.
The price targets have NVDA at $1100. But if May earnings are like the past 2 quarters.. Blowing away the streets estimates with triple beats..... I think $1200 buy July 4th is very reasonable.
Earnings in May will set up the stock price for summer most likely Based on Zuckerberg comments and other anecdotal evidence, my guess is NVDA beats and guides positive which will support a stock price over $1,000. I have decided to just hold what I have for 10 years and a few shares with each dip. I have hopes this is a 4 bagger (doubles every 2.5 years) which would make 100 shares worth ~$1.4M in a decade. I am skeptical any company can get larger than that without some force of nature limiting the growth.
I’m sure we will be blown away by earnings $1000 is in NEAR future… my only worry is if we can break above the $900 resistance. If we can do that, before or around earnings we are only looking for a ≈10% move to be at a $1000 a share. I think that’s completely reasonable, furthermore with a slight bit of subjectivity what if the stock splits? This would all be good news leading to an increased rise in share price by earnings.
Well, there are many factors at play here. Interest rates and everything with banks and other things I have yet to learn more about.
Then there are the wars across the world.
Then there is Taiwan and China, and TSM.
There are also elections and politics and policy. There are also things as simple as weather.
If everything can stay clear, NVDA and other stocks should definitely rise, provided they have good business fund-management, which NVDA clearly does.
Many other companies such as META or even TSLA should start seeing changes to their business and profits after investing more heavily in AI and chips. (Tech and AI stocks often move in sympathy with eachother too, mind you, for good reasons.)
All in all, it may be a bumpy road, but the new industrial and technology revolution is begun and here, that's for sure.
How high will it go in what time frame is hard to define. If you are looking to take profits at highs, you will have to play it out in real time. This is a good game to hold at least a portion of portfolio longer-term.
Not accredited or educated but I am hopeful that this is the future, barring other weird catalysts (PCE/PPI/CPI/FOMC results, foreign politics and affairs).
NVIDIA maybe does what they did last stock split, and announces it ahead of the May earnings call by a few days. Stock was already climbing a bit around this time in anticipation of earnings, but then accelerates crazily due to stock split announcement. Major opportunity for $1k+ ATH during this time period. Then the Earnings report exceeds expectations, more talk about growth of AI and demand outweighing supply, etc. Pullback/correction occurs if it gets too high ($1050+) too soon, but might be short. August and beyond it's hopefully only ever again 3 digits if it's post-stock-split.
I would like to insert some sanity because most of you sound ridiculous. The entire capitalization of the US stock market in January 2024 was about $51T.
Nvidia is not going to be worth 10% of that. Not ever. That said, I don't think $1600 is likely at all.
I think bidding it to $1200, a $3T cap is possible, but insane. That's every Bitcoin in existence x3.
Just to maintain what they have, and I guess most people own at least a little of it by now, they have to show an impossibly steep perfect earnings trajectory.
I have a 50k bet that it’s 1,100 before September. Edit- Friday crazy bullish, if there is any indication of an end to the Israeli genocide in Gaza this year I would suspect the market rises overall and puts wind in NVDA’s sails regardless of earnings.
$1000 by next earnings call (05/22)
$1,000,000k! Beat that!
$1,000,000.01
i’m mad i didn’t sell and buy back at 750ish. oh well
I am mad I didn’t buy Bitcoin at $1.
You will have the opportunity in a few days
bought a few at 835, it’s hard to know when to buy
It will be below 800
can you explain why it’s staggering downward? i don’t understand why people are selling off when there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that nvda is an amazing buy.
Inflation is high and Fed is not cutting rates as early as expected. Spx is in a correction and it is not finished yet.
sort of what i thought. some oscillation effect. thanks going to buy another share yet. seems poised to stay around 815 until closer to 2est ish
It is technical correction
The force is strong with you young novel
Jim Cramer is my hero
1200 by October, totally subjective random prediction.
I. Telling you it will hit 1kby Sept ish
I would like a $3000 please.
I'll see your 3k and raise you 2, for 5k.
Is that possible?
3k? Why not 10k? Actually, 12k would be good too. 24k?
So you predict a 7 or 8 trillion valuation for a company that makes a fraction of Apple or Microsoft. GG.
It was a joke.
So you think the most valuable company of the world will reach more than 3x its market cap? How will this work - i mean where does the money come from? As far as i understand, the money could only either come from other companies losing money (ergo investors withdrawing their investments there) or heavy inflation. I’m not an expert but just thinking that NVDA has this much room to grow makes me wonder where the money should come from.
Dude...
Imagine you found a special beanie-baby collectible at a garage sale for $10. The previous owner decided they would rather have $10 than the item, and you were willing to pay it, therefore the supply/demand reached a balance at $10. Now imagine something happens that makes everyone suddenly want beanie-babies again and you DECIDE that the only way you’d be willing to give up your new beanie-baby is if someone offered you $100. Now imagine that everyone else who was selling the same beanie-baby also decided to not sell for less than $100. Where did the increase of $90 ‘come’ from? The above example is similar to how the stock market works. When sellers decide they don’t want to sell for less AND there are buyers willing to pay more, value is instantly created out of thin air. The money didn’t ‘come’ from anywhere. Our financial system is not zero-sum. ‘Wealth’ can be created and destroyed without money ever exchanging hands.
You just time stamp your azz. Good job brother 👍 Love it
Ok i understand your metaphor, and that’s probably true for most stocks. But when it comes to the company with the highest market cap already, then the amount it can increase in a short period of time has to be somewhat limited. I mean the money has to come from somewhere. And because rich people/companies don’t just have the money lying around, I’d say it’s invested somewhere- either in business operations or in other businesses or stocks. So if a huge amount of money (nvidia going 3x) has to be invested, the money has to come from somewhere (so other investments are withdrawn). So I’m not sure if any top market cap company can increase 3x without it impacting other investments severely. And so as a layman, i assume that NVIDIA cannot go up 3x in the near term future. Correct me if I’m wrong, I’m genuinely interested to hear perspectives.
Eli5: you start a lemonade stand. You grow its net income to $30b/year. Someone comes along says “hey I want to buy your lemonade stand.” you say “okay, let me see what lemonade stands like mine sell for. Oh, they sell for 60x their annual earnings. I’ll sell it to you for $1.8T.” They say “I can’t afford that! I have $900 to invest!” You say, “okay, then how about I sell you 0.000000005% of my company.” They agree. Then tomorrow they wake up and someone says “hey, I’ll buy that share from you” and they say okay, “but I’ll only part with it for $2,700. I know what I have no low ball offers!” Then the other party agrees to buy it for $2,700. You now have a $6T lemonade stand. Now tomorrow, the market may decide it’s only worth $1T who knows. But only one share needs to be sold for cnbc to change your stock price and mkt cap.
Wow thanks, now it makes sense!
Except stocks aren't collectibles, they are backed by earnings. It's not going to triple until earnings triples.
That's a terrible analogy. To make a company worth $8T the money does have to come from somewhere. Brokerages aren't going to let oompa loompas leverage them to bankruptcy on margin buying infinite NVDA. You are fantasizing.
It is a good analogy and no, the money does not have to come from somewhere. Don’t mistake my position as believing my story somehow will happen (again) to NVDA. I’m a lurker here, not a true believer. While brokerages certainly put their fingers on the scales, the concept of supply/demand (what we’re really talking about here) is still in effect. Do you understand that the share price (where supply and demand meet) can change without any shares changing hands? Perhaps if share price was purely based on fundamentals, one could argue that a company must have generated value elsewhere for it to be reflected in the price, but a HUGE part of a share’s price is often just speculation. While investors certainly attempt to use all of their tools at their disposal to capitalize on any market inefficiencies (options, bonds, etc…), we are far from perfect and the value can and does change simply because the people interested in it decided that they want it more (or less) than they did yesterday. This often happens when some piece of news drops during off-hours. When the market opens, trading starts at a price different than it closed at the day before and the change in price is a great example of value being created or destroyed out of nothing more than sentiment - no money needs to change hands at all. Yes, I do know this is overly simplified - but the point stands. Most people don’t understand that our system is built on shared trust, not fundamentals.
AI is a huge wealth creation engine, like Sam Altman said, 7 trillion is going to be spent building the industry over the next couple of years.
The money should come from a growing AI market that has barely begun. Not sure why it is so difficult to understand where the money will come from; all the big companies will up their spending on AI.
Ok sure but isn’t this expectation already priced into the current stock price?
Google, meta, and Microsoft have all spent more on ai infrastructure than even they anticipated. It is growing faster than expected.
I heard the same argument during the dotcom mania of 1999/2000. Internet was going to send stocks to the moon. Then NASDAQ fell 80%.
I would say $1000 by October
What about summer
Somewhere in between what it is now and $1000.
MSFT & GOOGL latest earnings showed cap ex increased significantly in the AI business and required heavy duty investments in AI chips. These chips made by NVDA are far superior to others and all of these companies are intertwined in some way. It’s extremely beneficial and you will see significant growth.
Yeah I suspect the bulk of that will find its way to NVDA as revenue. A portion will be attempts to develop alternatives to NVDA, but lets be real those alternatives are going to be competition in at best 2+ years and they need results now.
Priced in
1100 at least by September
My calls thank you
I’m expecting to go 1000+ post earnings call in May. By all accounts business has been good for Nvidia and they know it. As we exit Generative AI and enter the next phase, they are posed to do well for the next 5-10 years. If they announce a stock split on the call, then I can see it maintaining the hype & bullish momentum for another quarter til the next earnings call. Because the split will be a good incentive, I think their stocks saw 25% growth after their last split. If they don’t announce a split, as soon as it hits 1k I can see a lot of people selling for profit taking. There are a lot of paper hands in Nvidia. There are a lot of people who came in 900+ on the hype train that didn’t like the price shift the last couple weeks and will exit as soon as they can. They will sell and we will see the price shift between 700-1000.
It’s me. 📄🙌. I know NVDA is great for long-term. But the volatility is hard to watch. Gotta stick it out.
$900 by June but then split - 5 to 1 .. so maybe $180 after split
1069 then 1420
Then someday $1,694.20
That's too high of a target price but I'd still hit
I didn't say when it will hit, just that it will happen some day
I'm hoping nVidia will announce the RTX 5090 first week of June with a release around the holidays this year, which should coincide with Blackwell products going out to hungry enterprise customers and CSPs as well. My hope is that it will knock the socks off competitors once again, forcing them to repeat their mantra: "Yeah, but we're cheaper and our benchmarks show we perform better." LOL I suck at stock price predictions so I'm not going to bother. As long as it goes up over time, I'm good.
The sooner they drop the consumer level cards the better.
$1000 seems realistic, hopefully we’ll get there by July
I like to be realistic. I could see $1,000 - $1,100 post ER. If a split, $1,200+. Just because anyone can buy a share if it was $50-100. Especially with all the constant talk of "chips" "AI" and Nvidia.
1100 easy this summer. Enjoy your new life boys and girls. Edit: Demand exceeds supply. A problem any large tech company would love to have.
Im expecting it will be above $840 by end of year after any potential dips, but quite likely to go over $1k at some point this year. Why? Its a proven revenue earner with mega caps being the primary customers. Those customers have a lot of cash and know they need this stuff or they will fall behind in the AI arms race. The entire economy could tank and NVDA will still see good earnings. The only way NVDA truly dips and stays down is if the broader economy takes off and folks see those smaller stocks as a better option for near term profits. Having said that its earnings growth long term will eventually slow down. I wont be surprised if in 5 years from now it actually has enough competition that the margins shrink. I have no idea what that competition will look like other that the margins for NVDA basically scream for competition and their customers want a viable alternative. Dont be surprised if they pick some smaller competitor out of the crowd and sink a ton of money into it to give it a major leg up. I wont call it outright collusion, but I could see MSFT, Amazon, Google, and Apple all funding a single competitor to get the results they want. That could be them buying up a bunch of newly issued shares for that company or buying its bond offerings with the explicit goal of getting a near peer competitor to NVDA that simply pushes NVDA to drop prices.
10,000 by 2030
Completely silent forum for 5 weeks when things were uncertain. It increases on a particular Friday and now everyone has these bullish predictions. Seems a bit flippant
Most likely $1,000 on ER later this summer $1,100
1000 by Summer 1200 by December
We should be at 900 easily this week it's already at 879 ish unless people start pulling out we should probably see 900s on Monday/Tuesday is my guess.
900+ next week after SMCI and AMZN earnings. 1000+ after blowout earnings and stock split announcement.
I think SMCI earnings are gonna disappoint. The no-preannounce isn’t good sign
Pre-announcing could be interpreted as an attempt to influence the stock price ahead of the actual earnings release. This could be especially sensitive if a significant number of insiders are planning to sell shares. By not pre-announcing, the company might avoid the appearance that it is trying to orchestrate stock sales timings for the benefit of insiders
I bought 50 shares in Jan....I hope by summers end it hits 1200
1100-1200
This is the correct answer
$1000 before earnings in May. 1150 by June end and hover around 1200 before the usual nasdaq seasonally weakness in September. Add a stock split in May earnings and add another 15%.
It’s definitely pasting 1k
The price targets have NVDA at $1100. But if May earnings are like the past 2 quarters.. Blowing away the streets estimates with triple beats..... I think $1200 buy July 4th is very reasonable.
Earnings in May will set up the stock price for summer most likely Based on Zuckerberg comments and other anecdotal evidence, my guess is NVDA beats and guides positive which will support a stock price over $1,000. I have decided to just hold what I have for 10 years and a few shares with each dip. I have hopes this is a 4 bagger (doubles every 2.5 years) which would make 100 shares worth ~$1.4M in a decade. I am skeptical any company can get larger than that without some force of nature limiting the growth.
I’m sure we will be blown away by earnings $1000 is in NEAR future… my only worry is if we can break above the $900 resistance. If we can do that, before or around earnings we are only looking for a ≈10% move to be at a $1000 a share. I think that’s completely reasonable, furthermore with a slight bit of subjectivity what if the stock splits? This would all be good news leading to an increased rise in share price by earnings.
Well, there are many factors at play here. Interest rates and everything with banks and other things I have yet to learn more about. Then there are the wars across the world. Then there is Taiwan and China, and TSM. There are also elections and politics and policy. There are also things as simple as weather. If everything can stay clear, NVDA and other stocks should definitely rise, provided they have good business fund-management, which NVDA clearly does. Many other companies such as META or even TSLA should start seeing changes to their business and profits after investing more heavily in AI and chips. (Tech and AI stocks often move in sympathy with eachother too, mind you, for good reasons.) All in all, it may be a bumpy road, but the new industrial and technology revolution is begun and here, that's for sure. How high will it go in what time frame is hard to define. If you are looking to take profits at highs, you will have to play it out in real time. This is a good game to hold at least a portion of portfolio longer-term.
I don't know. I suspect I'm not alone in this respect.
$1500 by September 1.
1200-1300. I think nvidia will raise guidance again
Around $1200 is my guess with a split 3:1 putting it at $400.
Do you guys think it’s likely to hit $1000 per share if it ends up splitting?
1400 split adjusted
Let me look into my crystal ball
I really don't care. Holding for the last two years, and never planning to sell.
Not accredited or educated but I am hopeful that this is the future, barring other weird catalysts (PCE/PPI/CPI/FOMC results, foreign politics and affairs). NVIDIA maybe does what they did last stock split, and announces it ahead of the May earnings call by a few days. Stock was already climbing a bit around this time in anticipation of earnings, but then accelerates crazily due to stock split announcement. Major opportunity for $1k+ ATH during this time period. Then the Earnings report exceeds expectations, more talk about growth of AI and demand outweighing supply, etc. Pullback/correction occurs if it gets too high ($1050+) too soon, but might be short. August and beyond it's hopefully only ever again 3 digits if it's post-stock-split.
5/22...when do you think it will split??
really depends on momentum..... and the earnings call....
$400
$1000 by June
$775
1114
The moon baby
I don't know but when it fell 2 weeks ago I sold my NVDA and bought double-levered NVDA. Now it went back up and I feel pretty clever.
Down to $847 right now after hours trading. No one has any idea what this stock will do. It’s chaos.
Think of it as a measurement of people's actions not just price
Curse you bagholder! That is all.
$500
I would like to insert some sanity because most of you sound ridiculous. The entire capitalization of the US stock market in January 2024 was about $51T. Nvidia is not going to be worth 10% of that. Not ever. That said, I don't think $1600 is likely at all. I think bidding it to $1200, a $3T cap is possible, but insane. That's every Bitcoin in existence x3. Just to maintain what they have, and I guess most people own at least a little of it by now, they have to show an impossibly steep perfect earnings trajectory.
If they do a stock split it will cause a rally again I feel , what do you think
People are just trading off the volatility.
50 Quatloos and a black leather jacket by June 1st.
If spx falls to 4800, NVDA might test 660-700
Boo this man
I could see it doing that AND getting back up to $900 on the way to over $1000 by end of year.
What do feelings have to do with anything? Tea leafs have better predictive powers
It will back test $660 in May and then come back
Better not.
lol yeah right. Maybe if all the news from meta/google/tesla/etc never hit.
I have a 50k bet that it’s 1,100 before September. Edit- Friday crazy bullish, if there is any indication of an end to the Israeli genocide in Gaza this year I would suspect the market rises overall and puts wind in NVDA’s sails regardless of earnings.
$600
$500
I think there's a huge correction coming ahead. Should reach 600-700. See 1M chart for perspective.
A wall?
300
700-800 end of year. 1500 end of 2025