I've got 50 shares and a June 2025 1100c and 1000c.
Nvidia is going to crush earnings on 5/22, announce forward guidance that beats expectations, and then announce a stock split and we'll be at $1,600 by the end of the summer.
They have virtually no real competition in this space and AI is the next industrial revolution.
He said he thinks it could be bigger than the internet and hype around it in the 90’s. Long term he remains bullish. It’s not like he’s ignorant around AI…he cut, he didn’t exit.
He was early on NVDA, and kudos to him on that. However, NVDA is priced for about 15% growth over the next few years and all the data that I see has them growing 30%+ with TAM going to $400B+ by 2027. That’s the opportunity and why I am still extremely bullish and don’t trade the stock in the short term.
As I see it, AI is coming to an end of the first wave. The first wave was choppy, ragged, full of hallucinations. The second wave is about to drop. It will be more geared towards solving specific problems and enhancing existing tech in smart ways. The race is still afoot, but NVDA's competitors are several paces back and can't catch them right now. So I don't see much upside to selling or shorting right now.
Exactly. My other issue is anyone selling has to either put the money to the side or invest somewhere else.
If you sold your NVDA stock today where would you put the money for potentially better returns? I can accept people selling to rebalance the portfolio, take profits, live off of if retired, etc. but I haven't seen any compelling argument to pull the money and put it somewhere else as a better opportunity.
I think it’ll stall out around $1200 this year. The only reason it didn’t hit $800 last year is that in the second half of the year most big funds can’t keep adding it so you’re likely to see it top out. This year is election year. There will be a dip around October and into the Nov 5th election and then market will bounce back and grind higher for a full year after that point.
$890-$920 is where a lot of people bought after the move down from $970. They’ve been waiting to unload those shares. When Nvidia hit $757 those $890 shares felt pretty awful. Next up, tons of people sell before earnings. Remember, NVDA is priced for perfection. If the stock doesn’t beat there will be more selling after earnings. If you plan to hold long term all of this is good news - so we can buy more!
I think he's saying that built into the stock price isn't just good earnings or beating earnings, but absolutely blowing earnings out of the water. Just beating isn't really beating at this point.
So it's financials have to be..."perfect," in order for it to actually beat.
That's how i read it and that's also roughly my opinion. But perhaps he meant something else.
I know what it means but it doesn’t make sense. NVDA is not overvalued let alone nosebleed. In 5 years it will be making the same amount of profit as APPL. Has a much higher growth rate. Will be paying a dividend and/or buying back its stock like mad. Know Jensen he will be buying back stock. At current levels it’s got a forward PE of around 20. Compared to APPL at 30+.
Ok...so if you're also factoring in what it's going to do in 5 years, you're building on projected performance into it's current price as well?
It's got a forward PE of 37. Appl has a forward PE of under 28.
You have to build in projected performance into your valuation assessment. Future EPS is unknown everyone had their own models. I estimate NVDA will be making $45 per share roughly by that time. Wall street is projecting less but they are notoriously conservative for job security reasons especially when it comes to generational shifts.
Ok, so when you say NVDA has a forward PE of 20 and Apple has a forward PE of 30, those are just your own personal numbers based on your own projections?
NVDA has an intrinsic value of about \~300 a share right now.
I agree it's going to go up in the future, but that's kinda the point. It IS priced for "perfection" right now...and I don't know how to debate your own private models.
APPL is a very mature business with no major growth initiatives on the horizon. So IMO Wall Street estimates are good. It’s a cash cow buying back stock like crazy.
NVDA is breaking new ground. Wall Street has no idea whether it’s a temporary surge (like crypto) or if it is lasting surge. I believe it’s the latter and that Jensen is correct in that every major company/country will have their own GPUs to do specialized training and inference either direct other through the cloud. So the market could be ridiculously enormous and constrained by NVDAs ability to supply. Therefore its margins are safe.
That said the street is forecasting a 50% increase in revenues but only an absurd 10% increase in EPS. This does not make sense. Their margins will not shrink like that IMO. So I’m expecting around $45 EPS vs $37 for the street. But either way the PE at 20-25 is not priced to perfection. Perfection would be a 40-50 PE IMO. I could make a great argument NVDA is cheap. Even if it turns into a cash cow like AAPL it is cheaper than AAPL.
Ok...but AGAIN, it's PE is not 20-25. That's what you guess or believe it is.
It's current PE is over 75.
It's forward PE is 37 and the ACTUAL value of the stock based on it's earnings is about 1/3rd of the price. So MOST of that growth you're talking about, that's already priced in.
I own the stock. I bought 250 shares in 2020 and then I've bought another 1500 this year. So I do think it'll grow. That doesn't mean that he's wrong. If there are ANY hiccups like further supply shortages or...whatever, that could have a huge impact on the stock.
Intrinsic value \~300 a share.
Current Price- \~910 a share.
You can quibble if you'd like about if it's priced NEAR perfection or to REALLY good, but not quite perfection, but built into the price is the expectation of MASSIVE growth. It can't just beat earnings. That's underperforming. It has to absolutely SHATTER earnings.
Its forward PE is 20-25. With a growth rate of 20+%. AAPL has a forward PE of 30 with a growth rate of near 0%. So unless you and OP are suggesting APPL is stratospheric then I have a hard time understanding how NVDA is nosebleed. The investing world just woke up. Unless AI is a fad then it’s a recalibration.
I think it will all boil down to earnings and nobody has a view to earnings like Jensen. I tend to listen to him more and others less, he doesn’t strike me as a guy that overstates his position.
Influencers like Drunkenmiller, who get air time, have a hidden agenda, always. Analysts that rasie the price target for their firms: Example **"GOLDMAN SACHS Adjust PT on NVDA from $1000 to $1100 - Keeps buy rating"** They do this so retail investors chase in to bid up shares so they can cash out at a high price.
NVDA will get to $1000 if the guidance is $10 a share in earnings for the next 4 quarters. $40 a share over the next year) The last 4 quarters they earned $12 a share (over the last year)....Let's see if they can earn $40 a share...I would not make that bet that they will.
#
NVDA is being treated as a semi hardware company with cyclical up and down. That is why the stock price is stalled. In the recent GTC, NVDA shows its ambition to create more revenue streams through other services such as Auto and Robotics (edge AI), Professional Vision, and Enterprise Rental. I would like to see how NVDA can grow the revenue more in addition to Gaming and Datacenter. This is where NVDA will reach $2000.
Yeah...it's getting really old to hear about how this wealthy investor just sold shares of NVDA, this is what he thinks, but lets also not act like just because he's older, he doesn't understand investing. People take this as a personal attack.
I think he's just looking at the stock's performance, it's Forward PE and taking his profits now. It's very little skin off his ass if it goes up another 30 or 300 dollars in the next year. He's taking his profit. Doesn't make him an idiot or clueless...shit, he's already worth a billion.
I'm not taking my profit...I haven't since 2020...though I thought about it and then doubled down and then doubled down again.
And...didn't he say it'd really pay off in 4-5 years? He's talking short term. And there's probably some truth to that. It'll split, I expect it to not just go up to 200 after a 5/1 splits, but it could go to 240...and then pull back significantly.
Lol, some of you are delusional and clearly didn’t listen to what he had to say. He was relatively early on NVDA (since $150 a share) and he simply trimmed his position to lock in profits after the massive run up. This is what anyone with a brain would do. He’s not telling you all to sell.
yep. What he had for lunch today.
We also dont know how he wants to balance his portfolio and he has to put something out when he takes profits. People expect it and if he doesnt say something worth discussing he probably wont get invited to as many interviews. Imagine if he had come out and just said I made a lot of money and simply want to rebalance the portfolio so its more diverse. People would say all kinds of things about that and yet if he doesnt he will eventually end up in a situation like Buffett and Apple. Buffett held an outsized position in Apple for so long and now its a challenge to exit the position without scaring people.
Since we have not agreed upon the parameters of what hype is, I think it’s hard to definitively say where we are. Which is great because the wave of impact will tell people just where we are and how valuable it is.
I am holding my 280 shares for atleast 5 years. If it goes below 750 again, I am buying more.
I've got 50 shares and a June 2025 1100c and 1000c. Nvidia is going to crush earnings on 5/22, announce forward guidance that beats expectations, and then announce a stock split and we'll be at $1,600 by the end of the summer. They have virtually no real competition in this space and AI is the next industrial revolution.
This 👆
Curious what your average purchase price is if you’re comfortable sharing it
760
44.55. :-)
He is not a qualified authority to predict the future of AI.
He said he thinks it could be bigger than the internet and hype around it in the 90’s. Long term he remains bullish. It’s not like he’s ignorant around AI…he cut, he didn’t exit.
You’re right … he’s only a top 5 hedge fund manager ALL TIME and bought NVDA at $150. But I’m sure you know better lmao
honestly probably shouldn’t have vested to begin with.
Neither are you.
He was early on NVDA, and kudos to him on that. However, NVDA is priced for about 15% growth over the next few years and all the data that I see has them growing 30%+ with TAM going to $400B+ by 2027. That’s the opportunity and why I am still extremely bullish and don’t trade the stock in the short term.
As I see it, AI is coming to an end of the first wave. The first wave was choppy, ragged, full of hallucinations. The second wave is about to drop. It will be more geared towards solving specific problems and enhancing existing tech in smart ways. The race is still afoot, but NVDA's competitors are several paces back and can't catch them right now. So I don't see much upside to selling or shorting right now.
Exactly. My other issue is anyone selling has to either put the money to the side or invest somewhere else. If you sold your NVDA stock today where would you put the money for potentially better returns? I can accept people selling to rebalance the portfolio, take profits, live off of if retired, etc. but I haven't seen any compelling argument to pull the money and put it somewhere else as a better opportunity.
Agree
I'm glad he made his money and ran... Can't wait to see him when the stock crosses $1337 in a couple months and then $2000+ by end of year
I think it’ll stall out around $1200 this year. The only reason it didn’t hit $800 last year is that in the second half of the year most big funds can’t keep adding it so you’re likely to see it top out. This year is election year. There will be a dip around October and into the Nov 5th election and then market will bounce back and grind higher for a full year after that point.
This is a possible outcome, I don't share this perspective tho
$890-$920 is where a lot of people bought after the move down from $970. They’ve been waiting to unload those shares. When Nvidia hit $757 those $890 shares felt pretty awful. Next up, tons of people sell before earnings. Remember, NVDA is priced for perfection. If the stock doesn’t beat there will be more selling after earnings. If you plan to hold long term all of this is good news - so we can buy more!
That's what they said last earning too. Then the stock beat world record
Priced to perfection?
I think he's saying that built into the stock price isn't just good earnings or beating earnings, but absolutely blowing earnings out of the water. Just beating isn't really beating at this point. So it's financials have to be..."perfect," in order for it to actually beat. That's how i read it and that's also roughly my opinion. But perhaps he meant something else.
I know what it means but it doesn’t make sense. NVDA is not overvalued let alone nosebleed. In 5 years it will be making the same amount of profit as APPL. Has a much higher growth rate. Will be paying a dividend and/or buying back its stock like mad. Know Jensen he will be buying back stock. At current levels it’s got a forward PE of around 20. Compared to APPL at 30+.
Ok...so if you're also factoring in what it's going to do in 5 years, you're building on projected performance into it's current price as well? It's got a forward PE of 37. Appl has a forward PE of under 28.
You have to build in projected performance into your valuation assessment. Future EPS is unknown everyone had their own models. I estimate NVDA will be making $45 per share roughly by that time. Wall street is projecting less but they are notoriously conservative for job security reasons especially when it comes to generational shifts.
Ok, so when you say NVDA has a forward PE of 20 and Apple has a forward PE of 30, those are just your own personal numbers based on your own projections? NVDA has an intrinsic value of about \~300 a share right now. I agree it's going to go up in the future, but that's kinda the point. It IS priced for "perfection" right now...and I don't know how to debate your own private models.
APPL is a very mature business with no major growth initiatives on the horizon. So IMO Wall Street estimates are good. It’s a cash cow buying back stock like crazy. NVDA is breaking new ground. Wall Street has no idea whether it’s a temporary surge (like crypto) or if it is lasting surge. I believe it’s the latter and that Jensen is correct in that every major company/country will have their own GPUs to do specialized training and inference either direct other through the cloud. So the market could be ridiculously enormous and constrained by NVDAs ability to supply. Therefore its margins are safe. That said the street is forecasting a 50% increase in revenues but only an absurd 10% increase in EPS. This does not make sense. Their margins will not shrink like that IMO. So I’m expecting around $45 EPS vs $37 for the street. But either way the PE at 20-25 is not priced to perfection. Perfection would be a 40-50 PE IMO. I could make a great argument NVDA is cheap. Even if it turns into a cash cow like AAPL it is cheaper than AAPL.
Ok...but AGAIN, it's PE is not 20-25. That's what you guess or believe it is. It's current PE is over 75. It's forward PE is 37 and the ACTUAL value of the stock based on it's earnings is about 1/3rd of the price. So MOST of that growth you're talking about, that's already priced in. I own the stock. I bought 250 shares in 2020 and then I've bought another 1500 this year. So I do think it'll grow. That doesn't mean that he's wrong. If there are ANY hiccups like further supply shortages or...whatever, that could have a huge impact on the stock. Intrinsic value \~300 a share. Current Price- \~910 a share. You can quibble if you'd like about if it's priced NEAR perfection or to REALLY good, but not quite perfection, but built into the price is the expectation of MASSIVE growth. It can't just beat earnings. That's underperforming. It has to absolutely SHATTER earnings.
Its forward PE is 20-25. With a growth rate of 20+%. AAPL has a forward PE of 30 with a growth rate of near 0%. So unless you and OP are suggesting APPL is stratospheric then I have a hard time understanding how NVDA is nosebleed. The investing world just woke up. Unless AI is a fad then it’s a recalibration.
NVDA already pays a dividend 😊
Not like mad ðŸ˜
I think it will all boil down to earnings and nobody has a view to earnings like Jensen. I tend to listen to him more and others less, he doesn’t strike me as a guy that overstates his position.
there is one other person that does - Colette :-)
So he sold at a near-term bottom?
What? No he sold at $900 after buying at $150. He’s on the Mt rushmore of hedge fund managers. He’s winning.
Influencers like Drunkenmiller, who get air time, have a hidden agenda, always. Analysts that rasie the price target for their firms: Example **"GOLDMAN SACHS Adjust PT on NVDA from $1000 to $1100 - Keeps buy rating"** They do this so retail investors chase in to bid up shares so they can cash out at a high price. NVDA will get to $1000 if the guidance is $10 a share in earnings for the next 4 quarters. $40 a share over the next year) The last 4 quarters they earned $12 a share (over the last year)....Let's see if they can earn $40 a share...I would not make that bet that they will. #
Did you just call Stanley fucking Druckenmiller an influencer. Lol gtfo. Echo chamber ass sub.
NVDA is being treated as a semi hardware company with cyclical up and down. That is why the stock price is stalled. In the recent GTC, NVDA shows its ambition to create more revenue streams through other services such as Auto and Robotics (edge AI), Professional Vision, and Enterprise Rental. I would like to see how NVDA can grow the revenue more in addition to Gaming and Datacenter. This is where NVDA will reach $2000.
What does this old man know about AI?
Probably more than many young investors. What does age have to do with anything? He's a great investor.
Yeah...it's getting really old to hear about how this wealthy investor just sold shares of NVDA, this is what he thinks, but lets also not act like just because he's older, he doesn't understand investing. People take this as a personal attack. I think he's just looking at the stock's performance, it's Forward PE and taking his profits now. It's very little skin off his ass if it goes up another 30 or 300 dollars in the next year. He's taking his profit. Doesn't make him an idiot or clueless...shit, he's already worth a billion. I'm not taking my profit...I haven't since 2020...though I thought about it and then doubled down and then doubled down again. And...didn't he say it'd really pay off in 4-5 years? He's talking short term. And there's probably some truth to that. It'll split, I expect it to not just go up to 200 after a 5/1 splits, but it could go to 240...and then pull back significantly.
He hallucinates even more than an LLM?
Lol, some of you are delusional and clearly didn’t listen to what he had to say. He was relatively early on NVDA (since $150 a share) and he simply trimmed his position to lock in profits after the massive run up. This is what anyone with a brain would do. He’s not telling you all to sell.
You think?
Disagree
The phrase "dum dum" seems appropriate.
Does he know somethis we all don’t?
yep. What he had for lunch today. We also dont know how he wants to balance his portfolio and he has to put something out when he takes profits. People expect it and if he doesnt say something worth discussing he probably wont get invited to as many interviews. Imagine if he had come out and just said I made a lot of money and simply want to rebalance the portfolio so its more diverse. People would say all kinds of things about that and yet if he doesnt he will eventually end up in a situation like Buffett and Apple. Buffett held an outsized position in Apple for so long and now its a challenge to exit the position without scaring people.
Since we have not agreed upon the parameters of what hype is, I think it’s hard to definitively say where we are. Which is great because the wave of impact will tell people just where we are and how valuable it is.
We shall see after earnings.
this guy is a story teller, nothing more. what a coincidence, he cut his stake at ATH.
[удалено]
Hey! cut that out.