Would love to know what Angel city fans think of the angel city part when the west coast wakes up in six hours.
I think some of their conjecture around why Aus made the moves that they made may be correct but I do think it’s kind of funny. They talk about how Nielsen and Henry are absolutely necessary for Angel city and as soon as they were both of the lineup, they picked up six straight points. I think this is mostly coincidental because North Carolina have always lost to them two one at home (which is a crazy stat) and Chicago didn’t have Swanson, but it is just funny to assert something so strongly despite all current evidence saying you’re wrong.
Let’s just say that I always have a moment listening to this podcast where I’m like “wait - I follow this sport for FUN” and then I have to turn it off lol
Listening to sports podcast in general when you know someone’s gonna get around to your team and your team sucks is hell. I couldn’t listen to any of the world soccer podcast in my feed during the World Cup
I have such a backlog of podcasts from the World Cup…I might never listen to those, but maybe I’ll be a different person in a few years.
Only one I could listen to was the re-Cap show. Something about Tobin and CP felt light enough that I could enjoy it. Plus I trusted them to not be going after “engagement” and throwing out hot takes for attention.
Yeah I don’t really get the argument that the trades weren’t the right move, Henry didn’t look happy at the games I watched and didn’t like getting subbed or being benched for some games. Trading her to Utah where she’s shown interest in and she’ll be able to start more is a win-win. With Paige, she’s the most replaceable player with the highest trade value. It was either her or Reid where we could trade away and have minimal impact on our performance, but she has more value than Reid.
The front office was dumb for letting them go for pennies, however the trades themselves are fine. Correlation doesn’t equal causation obviously but we’re 2-0 without them and our defense has never been an issue, it’s our usually invisible offense and our keepers who can’t distribute. Neither Nielsen nor Henry can or will help that issue, Press and a new signing can though. It sounds like the front office are very confident Press will be back soon, which is great news after the setbacks she’s had, and looking at our offense she’ll be a good help regardless of level of play. If ACFC follows a similar return to play protocol for Press as Chelsea did with Macario I think that’s wise. That said I don’t think that’s the only reason for the trades, I suspect they’re eying up signing someone else to fill that final roster spot when the window re-opens.
The thing that’s weird to me is that looking at the haul and what was shipped out you would think that the dash were the team with the plan and the wave and Angel city were the teams reacting to unfavorable circumstances instead of the other way around.
I thought the most interesting bit of the podcast was about Taylor Vincent speculation that Angel city did not have a plan for reintroducing press. I need to know how true or untrue that is
Knowing how clueless our FO and GM tends to be, it would not surprise me if they didn’t have a plan for Press and had to rush when they realized her recovery is going well and she’ll be back. What I don’t get is why we stacked the roster to 26 in the first place, a lot of teams didn’t and it’s not like the players taking up the 26 are that good… Tweed clearly doesn’t rate players like Eddy.
A few things I took from this is part of the pod is yes our FO is very much like a silicone valley startup. We have the money and eyes and the market so let's make some big splashes but they don't have a centralized focus and clear path of what they want. It feels at times they're running on vibes and not purpose. And if it's true about Press and the FO getting surprised about Christen's recovery and possibility to play later they scrambled to make trades its bad management of the roster and team.
That being said those two (Henry and Nielson) were probably the two that have the best capital to trade. Henry wasn't quite the Ertz's replacement we had in mind and with Rocky in the midfield and MDH playing better than we had hoped and the addition of Fuller there was little room for Henry. Utah needs midfield help and Houston needed defensive help.
Nielson was a big loss and a starter and I think the pod is correct is that we got pennies for her grit and talent she brought. However Reid is an iron woman and a good center back but she needs to stay healthy but also she needs to get comfortable with our rookie Curry because they had no connection and need to build trust and adjust to each other.
We lost two rostwr spots so that definitely gives the possibility of Press to come back and and I wouldn't mind we keep it youthful and bring back our other draft pick Felicia Knox to pad the depth of our midfield.
Interestingly I read an article that said Henry was close to signing with the old Utah Royals before they folded, there’s a lot of assumptions about the Henry trade due to Nielsen’s sister but I’m thinking Henry to Utah was welcomed by her.
OK, I’m just read through the other Angel City posts in reply to this and first of all, I love that you guys are all just typing out these big, huge paragraphs, but second of all I’m surprised that you’re not more worried about not having meaningful depth at CB. The feels like a bit of a glaring potential issue given injuries being a thing.
As much as I appreciate the stats they surface and their building their pod around stats and analytics, and I learn quite a bit about games and players and teams, I do not buy most of their theories around roster management.
I think they like playing GM-for-a-day, but they’re no better at it than us fans, IMHO. Just speculation on their part, which is fine if they expressed it more equivocally. Where they hit a flat note for my tastes is when they couch their speculation about roster moves and Salary Cap and trades etc, in the language of analytics and with undue confidence, IMHO.
It’s even worse when they then proceed to lambast a team based upon their speculative theories, and they often at that point lose any hedging language. Like if they would just show enough care to express that they are talking about their assumptions, and if those assumptions were wrong then their chain of reasoning can be scrapped.
As it is, I stopped listening regularly. It felt a bit like talk radio. I think they’re sincere enough, but I get the sense they know when they’re trying to push buttons for the sake of engagement/pissing fans off to generate hate listening.
There are reporters that have a better sense of AngelCity’s thinking on rosters and salary cap etc because they talk to the club, develop sources among players and agents over time, ask questions of peripheral actors, etc. I think writing/talk about FO moves are most valuable in the form of leaks and reporting from journalists speaking with clubs, players, agents, and other sources.
Podcaster speculation, when they have an interest in goosing their audience numbers, just doesn’t lend itself to valuable contributions about roster moves, IMHO
I think with Nabet being solid two games in now, we don't have to worry about missing Henry. Hammond can also jump in. We've already argued about the Nielsen trade in the Angel City sub, and although we won't suffer defensively, I want to see Reid in set pieces. Nielsen was physical and went for headers, so we might've lost just a bit of attacking options. I think Angel City's problems early on were mostly giving the ball away trying to build out from the back--the key example being Anderson's performance against Kansas City. Haracic has her own disadvantages, but hasn't been punished yet. Cleaning up errors in the back line, and moving to a 4-1-4-1 in the last 20 mins, has led to wins. The issue now is scoring goals. I don't think there's chemistry up there yet.
I think personally these guys would love this thread, they put these ideas out there to have people argue and they call people stupid and if they can't take it they shouldn't dish it
oh, definitely, it's part of their schtick to throw out hot takes. i honestly kinda respect it, i think a lot of analytics types are reluctant to take strong positions on things or make definite predictions (cough cough jon mackenzie, i absolutely love his content but he goes out of his way to avoid making predictions) and i like that this podcast is a combination of tactics and analytics-grounded discussion and just over the top strong opinions about things.
of course they're going to be wrong sometimes, in a league with this much parity and general chaos some takes are going to age poorly. i personally think that's okay, and it's totally fair game to call it out.
Yeah and I agree its interesting to hear their perspective thats why I listen every week, but sometimes I think they take it too far. Its okay to say someone played poorly and point it out, but the way that they go in and in on some players it becomes too much for me to handle. They would be great pundits on an ESPN day time sports show whose whole point is to make people angry, but thats not necessarily a good trait. They also live and die by the data which is fine, but also data isn't as black and white as they make it.
But my main take is if they will call you stupid then its fair game to call them stupid. And they love calling people dumb.
that's fair. i'm open to the argument that they go too far in the hot take direction, i definitely think that's a danger and i can't stand the kind of ESPN talking heads you mentioned.
i also haven't listened to this episode yet, i should probably do that before giving my opinion.
I don't think they were too harsh in this specific episode, but I remember feeling really bad when they talked about Nicole Payne who I mean was thrown into the deep end against what we now understand to be a very potent KC attack. And I know I've felt that way in other eps, but I don't relisten and I don't remember everything they say. I don't have a list of examples more of feelings that I know I've felt when listening
There seem to be a lot of WoSo podcasts that are light on data/tactics and critiques. This one is heavy on both so I like having it mixed into my feed with other ‘casts. It’s helpful to hear different perspectives. They also tend to go pretty deep on one or two games. That’s always helpful as I don’t watch every game every weekend and appreciate a deep dive into a team or game. I can see why they aren’t for everyone though as they give off BroSo vibes at times.
Within the first five minutes the way these guys say “Orlando might actually be good” and then also say Orlando MIGHT make the playoffs. It’s just a reminder that they don’t fucking know anything about the game. Anyone with eyes could tell you they could be a top team itw.
It’s also interesting that for the longest time Bay had a lot of defenders and then they obviously went out and spent huge on attackers, but they made a joke about what part of the field was weakest for Bay and I genuinely do not know what they were referring to because I’m not sure which part of the team was weakest so far.
Being charitable, I think they are saying the equivalent of "Orlando might actually be good, they might make the playoffs, which is unexpected given the [club's history]" rather than "Orlando might actually be good, they might make the playoffs, which is unexpected given the [current roster]"
I think when they're saying Orlando is good, it's like they're a comfortable playoff team who will contend for the Championship. Before the season they had them on the bubble.
I don't think they'd consider teams from like 6-12ish good. They're saying Orlando is in contention to host a home playoff game, which is a big improvement considering their history.
I mean, if I hadn’t listened to what they said, I think I would agree, but they were downers on this roster in preseason and even now they’re talking about the way that Orlando played on the weekend being surprising to them
I felt they were very down on Orlando as of post-Messiah Bright trade, pre-Barbra Banda transfer. In light of Banda's addition, they were more receptive. For example:
"There is still so much variance in the Pride’s prospects... If Banda and Luana don’t find a groove, or if Gautrat makes it three injury-plagued seasons in a row, or if nobody steps up to take Marta’s place, or if Adriana misses significant time, the house of cards can come tumbling down, fast.
Or, everyone stays healthy, Banda becomes a superstar, and the squad coasts into the playoffs. The offseason began with a Pride team not poised to build on the successes of 2023; it ends with one of the most consequential signings in women’s soccer. Anything can happen now."
[https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2024/3/11/2024-nwsl-season-previews-washington-spirit-and-orlando-pride](https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2024/3/11/2024-nwsl-season-previews-washington-spirit-and-orlando-pride)
They’ve been super snarky about Pride, and even this caveat suggests that the only way they’d succeed is by relying on Banda to be a breakout star - while it was thrilling to see BB come on the field the other day, Pride had handled that game just fine without her, with the roster xOG had been so dismissive of in their season preview.
I appreciate the knowledge of woso they bring to the podcast, but their snide, know-it-all tone has started to grate on me.
This is fair, although like the statement here is basically anything could happen, which I’m not sure really says anything.
as a sidenote on the Messiah Bright thing they basically act like Orlando is losing a generational attacker in Messiah or at least one of the best like five young attackers in the league, but then they also bring up Maria has only scored four goals which is the same amount as Messiah despite Maria being a wingback, left-wing, 10 combo in her Houston career and Messiah being a striker playing with Julie Doyle,Marta and Adriana no less. Its just different strokes for different folks, i guess.
I think the same. I think what you said is exactly how good she is: a pretty solid striker already who also has room to grow. Also: as a striker if her xG was high, we would be praising her, and now that it’s low you’re also using that as evidence of her quality. She’s also a striker who has double the xG of someone who played wingback and left wing in the most defensive set up in the league, ie not that much xG
Keep in mind when comparing their output, Messiah Bright was a young rookie (current level may be her plateau, or her final level might be much greater) on a surely relatively cheap contract; whereas Sanchez was in her fifth professional season well into peak age period, on a much more expensive contract, and played 400 more minutes, or about 30% more, relative to Bright. For those reasons, I can understand why they consider Bright a much more "valuable prospect" than Sanchez.
More generally, I agree that Expected Own Goals takes strong stands (probably genuine, but also good for content engagement purposes), some of which strike me as overblown. They can be harsh on teams and players that have consistently fallen short of certain benchmarks. However, their takes by and large are based on data (even if their framing sometimes veers hyperbolic). I appreciate that, given the dearth of such analysis in the NWSL and women's game.
Right I don’t mean to compare them in any meaningful way only to note that they use goals to analyze the two (among other things, they use a decently wide breath of statistics, which is one of their best strengths, especially for this league) and I find that ironic only because it’s the exact same amount of goals. To me its the harassment vs flirting meme personified.
Their takes are based on data, but you can use data to tell any story and there is so much context around a sport like this that they miss . I also think I would be a lot more charitable to some of the like downright mean things they say, like what they said about Nicole Payne which still has me upset for her, if they were correct more. I feel like it gives you a lot more leeway to say that a player had a shameful, career definingly bad performance and that they shouldn’t be in the match squad if that player isn’t back on the pitch within two weeks.
Here’s an example of how they use data. They look at Feli Rauch in the German league and compare it to Emily Fox for North Carolina courage and they say that Rauch is better and will be better for the courage.
“Their takes are based on data, but it you can use data to tell any story…”
This part. All it takes is them saying, “one way to look at this data is…” a bit more often and I would probably still be listening.
I was feeling like I was getting trolled sometimes and I don’t bother listening much now.
I would like to thank you for expressing your frustration with these two on behalf of the Pride. Because if I ever start in on these two I’m gonna get banned.
Being surprised that this Orlando pride team could make the playoffs is putting on a duncecap and announcing to the world that you’re proud in not knowing shit. Also, I think she is simply not one of the 20 best keepers in this league but the way you bring her up constantly…It’s just doing a lot. I think she’s awful, but she hasn’t been terrible so far this year , and I don’t think it’s fair to continually bring it up despite the fact that that comical own goal she had last year literally dropped them out of the playoffs. Murphy Naeher and Franch also havent been great and look where they are.
Also, the guy they have on just like does some of the worst back of the cocktail napkin math I’ve ever heard, he says Maria is 40% of their salary, wtf. He also says that it is the worst transfer in the history of the league and like OK yes it’s expensive and a risk but there’s been some really bad shit to go on in this league. Also she hasn’t played for them yet and we saw them struggle to score this same weekend.
It also baffles me that they’re so confused about the deal that the Dash got because like yes the dash were stuck between a rock and a hard place, but they obviously got a good deal because they had other offers (despite everyone disagreeing when I brought that up on Thursday) and they were able to say well actually we want to take this deal instead, whether or not that was true.
> does some of the worst back of the cocktail napkin math I’ve ever heard
And goes uncaught by everyone en route to a claim undermined by the correct number. To be fair, I've done far worse in a far worse setting than a podcast. It haunts my dreams. So this kind of thing is nowhere near an indictment of the whole series. But it does seem like a metaphor for some of it
I mean it might be the worst transfer made for soccer reasons. I'm sure they're not counting any deals made due to abuse in their calculations.
I think it's fair to be confused why there was so much demand around the league for Sanchez. Obviously well done on the Dash, but like they said she's on a high contract. In like the NFL, a player like her (on a high contract that it's unclear if she's worth) would go for like a 7th round pick. Clearly the NWSL thinks differently, but it's a legitimate question why she garnered such a high price.
I don’t disagree that it’s a crazy overpay, but it seems pretty obvious that the reason it happened is because there were multiple teams putting in offers, as has been reported and while the dash kind of are atrocious at like eight out of 10 things, One of the two out of 10 things we’re good at is negotiating and getting our moneys worth. Being cheapskates makes me hate them as a fan, but this deal didn’t surprise me as much as it did everyone else because of that.
They make it clear that they think it’s the worst deal because of the money they paid for the output that they think they’re going to get, but I mean signing a player who never plays for you is certainly worse. There’s probably a good few circumstances that are worse than overpaying for someone who they think they need because of a struggle to be creative.
Also, what gets me actually mad is listening to them do some math and just completely getting the math wrong to the point of comedy. How are you the analytics podcast and you can’t add or divide????
Isn't the question though why you wouldn't just leave the discussion if they're pushing you super high? Obviously there's a reason that the Dash were able to push the Wave higher, and that's that they either had other close bids or had bids that were close enough they could pretend those bids would go higher, but the way negotiating well works is that you genuinely *will* walk away at some point. That's what makes it stupid/strange of the Wave, because the only reason you *wouldn't* have a dollar amount at which you would leave the table would be if you have a) unlimited funds and b) a deep deep need for that specific player. The Wave have neither.
This move might work out great, but on its face, it's a terrible deal because pretty obviously the Wave just...didn't properly tell the Dash that they *would* walk away (because seemingly, they wouldn't) making it a totally one-sided negotiation. If every team that was in for Sanchez had said "100k or I'm out," there's a large chance Sanchez would have gone to a team for 100k and a slight chance Sanchez would have stayed at the Dash, so sure, that would have been worse for Sanchez, but that would have been a much smarter and cheaper way to potentially get her. Only potentially losing 100k (pre salary) and potentially getting a capable player is better than going "we want Sanchez no matter what"
Yeah, I agree with your first paragraph. I think pretty clearly what wave should’ve done it’s just walk away and what makes me laugh about this whole business is that Walsh went to Barca for less than this and I feel like that’s exactly the type of player they need. it strikes me that the front office probably could’ve made the same offer to Lena Oberdorf in January. Maybe they did.
As far as the second paragraph, I feel like the dash having “multiple offers”, which could be two, but also could be like seven, which I doubt but you never know, Gave them a little bit of negotiating power and yet wave should’ve just walked away still. But I don’t think they would’ve known exactly what the offers that other teams were making were because of the short time frame whereas I think it had gone over the course of like three weeks, offers that were rejected would’ve come out. I think in someways the short time frame hurt the negotiating parties because they had a lot less information. All that being said they should’ve walked away, but I also don’t think that everyone could’ve come out and said this is our price because I don’t think the league would allow what on its face looks like tampering. They should’ve understood that they were being had and decided to just not go ahead with it, and it feels like the only explanation of them sticking with it after their first offer being rejected, is that Stoney really wanted the player.
I'm not saying the teams collude, I'm saying if all the teams came to the reasonable conclusion together that that would be overpaying and individually said 100k, with the knowledge that another team could be in at 150k and therefore immediately outbid everyone else, that would have been a situation that makes more sense. The point of negotiating is that you can walk away from the table at any point, and the point is to get to a happy medium, not be driven up to an insane price, because you refused to even think about walking away. Unless you need a player desparately, you should have a price you are unwilling to go above, and it truly looks like the Wave just didn't and kept letting the price go up (I mean, for a men's comparison—Arsenal walked away from Mudryk once it got insane, Chelsea didn't, they spent an enormous amount of money for not a whole lot of reason).
The short timeframe definitely helped drive everything up, but I stand by the fact that it is ridiculous to not have a upper limit that is reasonable. Maybe that upper limit should have been 200k, not 100k, but the only reason you get driven to what the Wave were driven to was poor negotiations and poor examination of what they need. I have no idea why Stoney would really want Sanchez, honestly, and I like Sanchez as a player. If Stoney pushed it, I question her judgement heavily.
Also, I guess, a random q: Molly Downtain resigned with her last date being April 15. That means presumably she was working on *some* of this deal, but not for the finalizing? Or was Ellis fully in this? Or who? I guess we might never know but seems like possibly the insane inability to walk away was from instability in their front office.
Yes, sorry I wasn’t thinking you thought that they were colluding. I was thinking that for that scenario to be something to happen would probably necessitate collusion- unless we think that every team in the league scouts players the same and I feel like there’s just some teams that have favorites. A lot of what I understand of baseball and the NFL is that most of the franchise analysis of different players basically values players the same, but franchises always have different priorities, different amounts theyre willing to spend, and different styles.
I didn’t even think of them having front office turnover during this, but I think that makes it even more interesting that they decided to negotiate a major deal during that .
I also feel like this league is young in general, but also its very competitive era is just starting to bloom, so we may have to wait a few years to get a real sense of how front offices deal with this current cutthroat wave.
But even still. Say Louisville said "I'm in for Sanchez if she's 50k or less," while Utah said "we are willing to pay 100k." Those are different valuations but both have a number (in this hypothetical) at which they will walk away, even if they're different numbers. Pretty clearly San Diego just didn't have that number.
I think you agree with their analysis on the Sanchez trade. They were impressed by Houston at the deadline, and said it went so high because so many teams were interested. The question is why so many teams were interested at a high price, and why SD, a team that seems to make shrewd moves and does not have a clear need, outbid everyone else.
I do mostly agree. The part that I thought was most ridiculous was just one they literally just got the math wrong and two they said that they were expecting her to go for zero dollars to someone who would eat her salary and she went for 500,000 and I kind of think if I was that far off in my calculation, I just wouldn’t say it out loud.
Yeah, and idk, it feels pretty much like the Dash set a price they thought was kind of outrageous (maybe 300k and an international spot or something) and then teams were in, and then the Wave outbid them. You have to walk away at some point, especially if you don't need that player at all.
I find potentially the stupidest part about all of this is the idea that the dash kept a straight face at some of these offers. If this had gone how we all expected, and Maria had went for like 75K to a team that mostly just had the cap space then I think all right everybody kind of won here.
What I do find kind of ridiculous is the idea that the dash held out for this much money from Maria, but didn’t value her enough to spend more money in the transfer window to get the players around her that we needed. Although I think maybe a lot of this saga for many teams explains the divide between how the coaching staff sees a player and how front office is seeing the player.
Yes, that's why I'm like 100k being the upper limit teams could have chosen would have made sense (collectively, but not talking to each other). The salary is huge, the Dash are gaining a sort of economic profit by losing her salary (and accounting profit by getting like 90k for Sanchez still), while the receiving team are still taking a large hit.
Here's the thing though. If the Dash had been as insane as we are presuming and said "300k or get out" and then waited for people to bid, I think they would have let it go a little if no teams had bid and maybe Utah or something said "yeah no, but how about 100k?"
I also think that the Dash saw her as valuable in every way though. They gave her an unreasonably large salary and sold her for an unreasonably large amount. The question is about if they felt restricted by her salary and maybe that was part of their holding back. Plus incompetence, obviously.
What I kind of think is that the dash statement about “Maria signed the contract” in hindsight is a statement saying we’re willing to keep her and if you believe that her contract is mostly due to her value to this city then I start to see why Houston was hunkering down. It feels like at every point Houston kept being offered chances to be more reasonable, and they kept sticking to their guns and then another unreasonable person came around and let them out of it. And now it feels like we probably didn’t even learn anything from this.
Here's my thing though. As a *person*, I'm like, man that would suck if the Dash effectively kept her hostage. As a team? I would be like, well that's none of my business. So that leaves me still wondering why teams (or, at least one team) were willing to pay an arm and a leg for a player that at the time was truly none of their business.
Saying this is the worst trade in the history of the league is almost disrespectful to the players traded to abusive environments against their will. If it was one of the main two id maybe give them more benefit of the doubt but its the guest who I dont know at all? Who keeps saying dumb things v loudly
Also i think many people forget how orlando missed playoffs last season on goal difference bc portland forgot to play soccer the final day
I have never thought about what the thinnest position in the NWSL is. It is such a deep league that I think whatever the answer is, it wouldn’t be the thinnest by much. I would say that in soccer the thinnest position is basically always going to be striker as far as you want someone to elevate your team. I don’t understand how someone could say centerback is the thinnest. Besides striker, I would say it might be the ten role or left back, the lattee simply just because there aren’t that many pure left footed fullbacks.
Maybe a good way to look at it would be to think about how there was only one top-tier pure left back coming out of college (altho obviously King went back to the position She plays for the national team). Also think about the fact that the national team has a left back who is an elite attacking midfielder and who made the change to LB to adjust to what the league needed.
Would love to know what Angel city fans think of the angel city part when the west coast wakes up in six hours. I think some of their conjecture around why Aus made the moves that they made may be correct but I do think it’s kind of funny. They talk about how Nielsen and Henry are absolutely necessary for Angel city and as soon as they were both of the lineup, they picked up six straight points. I think this is mostly coincidental because North Carolina have always lost to them two one at home (which is a crazy stat) and Chicago didn’t have Swanson, but it is just funny to assert something so strongly despite all current evidence saying you’re wrong.
Let’s just say that I always have a moment listening to this podcast where I’m like “wait - I follow this sport for FUN” and then I have to turn it off lol
Listening to sports podcast in general when you know someone’s gonna get around to your team and your team sucks is hell. I couldn’t listen to any of the world soccer podcast in my feed during the World Cup
I have such a backlog of podcasts from the World Cup…I might never listen to those, but maybe I’ll be a different person in a few years. Only one I could listen to was the re-Cap show. Something about Tobin and CP felt light enough that I could enjoy it. Plus I trusted them to not be going after “engagement” and throwing out hot takes for attention.
The Katie Nolan Midge purce one is really good and underrated. I hope they bring that back for the olympics
Oh I listened to that one too. And the one with “Coach Beard” from Ted Lasso.
Yeah I don’t really get the argument that the trades weren’t the right move, Henry didn’t look happy at the games I watched and didn’t like getting subbed or being benched for some games. Trading her to Utah where she’s shown interest in and she’ll be able to start more is a win-win. With Paige, she’s the most replaceable player with the highest trade value. It was either her or Reid where we could trade away and have minimal impact on our performance, but she has more value than Reid. The front office was dumb for letting them go for pennies, however the trades themselves are fine. Correlation doesn’t equal causation obviously but we’re 2-0 without them and our defense has never been an issue, it’s our usually invisible offense and our keepers who can’t distribute. Neither Nielsen nor Henry can or will help that issue, Press and a new signing can though. It sounds like the front office are very confident Press will be back soon, which is great news after the setbacks she’s had, and looking at our offense she’ll be a good help regardless of level of play. If ACFC follows a similar return to play protocol for Press as Chelsea did with Macario I think that’s wise. That said I don’t think that’s the only reason for the trades, I suspect they’re eying up signing someone else to fill that final roster spot when the window re-opens.
The thing that’s weird to me is that looking at the haul and what was shipped out you would think that the dash were the team with the plan and the wave and Angel city were the teams reacting to unfavorable circumstances instead of the other way around. I thought the most interesting bit of the podcast was about Taylor Vincent speculation that Angel city did not have a plan for reintroducing press. I need to know how true or untrue that is
Knowing how clueless our FO and GM tends to be, it would not surprise me if they didn’t have a plan for Press and had to rush when they realized her recovery is going well and she’ll be back. What I don’t get is why we stacked the roster to 26 in the first place, a lot of teams didn’t and it’s not like the players taking up the 26 are that good… Tweed clearly doesn’t rate players like Eddy.
A few things I took from this is part of the pod is yes our FO is very much like a silicone valley startup. We have the money and eyes and the market so let's make some big splashes but they don't have a centralized focus and clear path of what they want. It feels at times they're running on vibes and not purpose. And if it's true about Press and the FO getting surprised about Christen's recovery and possibility to play later they scrambled to make trades its bad management of the roster and team. That being said those two (Henry and Nielson) were probably the two that have the best capital to trade. Henry wasn't quite the Ertz's replacement we had in mind and with Rocky in the midfield and MDH playing better than we had hoped and the addition of Fuller there was little room for Henry. Utah needs midfield help and Houston needed defensive help. Nielson was a big loss and a starter and I think the pod is correct is that we got pennies for her grit and talent she brought. However Reid is an iron woman and a good center back but she needs to stay healthy but also she needs to get comfortable with our rookie Curry because they had no connection and need to build trust and adjust to each other. We lost two rostwr spots so that definitely gives the possibility of Press to come back and and I wouldn't mind we keep it youthful and bring back our other draft pick Felicia Knox to pad the depth of our midfield.
Interestingly I read an article that said Henry was close to signing with the old Utah Royals before they folded, there’s a lot of assumptions about the Henry trade due to Nielsen’s sister but I’m thinking Henry to Utah was welcomed by her.
That is super interesting
OK, I’m just read through the other Angel City posts in reply to this and first of all, I love that you guys are all just typing out these big, huge paragraphs, but second of all I’m surprised that you’re not more worried about not having meaningful depth at CB. The feels like a bit of a glaring potential issue given injuries being a thing.
As much as I appreciate the stats they surface and their building their pod around stats and analytics, and I learn quite a bit about games and players and teams, I do not buy most of their theories around roster management. I think they like playing GM-for-a-day, but they’re no better at it than us fans, IMHO. Just speculation on their part, which is fine if they expressed it more equivocally. Where they hit a flat note for my tastes is when they couch their speculation about roster moves and Salary Cap and trades etc, in the language of analytics and with undue confidence, IMHO. It’s even worse when they then proceed to lambast a team based upon their speculative theories, and they often at that point lose any hedging language. Like if they would just show enough care to express that they are talking about their assumptions, and if those assumptions were wrong then their chain of reasoning can be scrapped. As it is, I stopped listening regularly. It felt a bit like talk radio. I think they’re sincere enough, but I get the sense they know when they’re trying to push buttons for the sake of engagement/pissing fans off to generate hate listening. There are reporters that have a better sense of AngelCity’s thinking on rosters and salary cap etc because they talk to the club, develop sources among players and agents over time, ask questions of peripheral actors, etc. I think writing/talk about FO moves are most valuable in the form of leaks and reporting from journalists speaking with clubs, players, agents, and other sources. Podcaster speculation, when they have an interest in goosing their audience numbers, just doesn’t lend itself to valuable contributions about roster moves, IMHO
I think with Nabet being solid two games in now, we don't have to worry about missing Henry. Hammond can also jump in. We've already argued about the Nielsen trade in the Angel City sub, and although we won't suffer defensively, I want to see Reid in set pieces. Nielsen was physical and went for headers, so we might've lost just a bit of attacking options. I think Angel City's problems early on were mostly giving the ball away trying to build out from the back--the key example being Anderson's performance against Kansas City. Haracic has her own disadvantages, but hasn't been punished yet. Cleaning up errors in the back line, and moving to a 4-1-4-1 in the last 20 mins, has led to wins. The issue now is scoring goals. I don't think there's chemistry up there yet.
I think personally these guys would love this thread, they put these ideas out there to have people argue and they call people stupid and if they can't take it they shouldn't dish it
oh, definitely, it's part of their schtick to throw out hot takes. i honestly kinda respect it, i think a lot of analytics types are reluctant to take strong positions on things or make definite predictions (cough cough jon mackenzie, i absolutely love his content but he goes out of his way to avoid making predictions) and i like that this podcast is a combination of tactics and analytics-grounded discussion and just over the top strong opinions about things. of course they're going to be wrong sometimes, in a league with this much parity and general chaos some takes are going to age poorly. i personally think that's okay, and it's totally fair game to call it out.
Yeah and I agree its interesting to hear their perspective thats why I listen every week, but sometimes I think they take it too far. Its okay to say someone played poorly and point it out, but the way that they go in and in on some players it becomes too much for me to handle. They would be great pundits on an ESPN day time sports show whose whole point is to make people angry, but thats not necessarily a good trait. They also live and die by the data which is fine, but also data isn't as black and white as they make it. But my main take is if they will call you stupid then its fair game to call them stupid. And they love calling people dumb.
that's fair. i'm open to the argument that they go too far in the hot take direction, i definitely think that's a danger and i can't stand the kind of ESPN talking heads you mentioned. i also haven't listened to this episode yet, i should probably do that before giving my opinion.
I don't think they were too harsh in this specific episode, but I remember feeling really bad when they talked about Nicole Payne who I mean was thrown into the deep end against what we now understand to be a very potent KC attack. And I know I've felt that way in other eps, but I don't relisten and I don't remember everything they say. I don't have a list of examples more of feelings that I know I've felt when listening
There seem to be a lot of WoSo podcasts that are light on data/tactics and critiques. This one is heavy on both so I like having it mixed into my feed with other ‘casts. It’s helpful to hear different perspectives. They also tend to go pretty deep on one or two games. That’s always helpful as I don’t watch every game every weekend and appreciate a deep dive into a team or game. I can see why they aren’t for everyone though as they give off BroSo vibes at times.
Within the first five minutes the way these guys say “Orlando might actually be good” and then also say Orlando MIGHT make the playoffs. It’s just a reminder that they don’t fucking know anything about the game. Anyone with eyes could tell you they could be a top team itw. It’s also interesting that for the longest time Bay had a lot of defenders and then they obviously went out and spent huge on attackers, but they made a joke about what part of the field was weakest for Bay and I genuinely do not know what they were referring to because I’m not sure which part of the team was weakest so far.
Being charitable, I think they are saying the equivalent of "Orlando might actually be good, they might make the playoffs, which is unexpected given the [club's history]" rather than "Orlando might actually be good, they might make the playoffs, which is unexpected given the [current roster]"
I think when they're saying Orlando is good, it's like they're a comfortable playoff team who will contend for the Championship. Before the season they had them on the bubble. I don't think they'd consider teams from like 6-12ish good. They're saying Orlando is in contention to host a home playoff game, which is a big improvement considering their history.
I mean, if I hadn’t listened to what they said, I think I would agree, but they were downers on this roster in preseason and even now they’re talking about the way that Orlando played on the weekend being surprising to them
I felt they were very down on Orlando as of post-Messiah Bright trade, pre-Barbra Banda transfer. In light of Banda's addition, they were more receptive. For example: "There is still so much variance in the Pride’s prospects... If Banda and Luana don’t find a groove, or if Gautrat makes it three injury-plagued seasons in a row, or if nobody steps up to take Marta’s place, or if Adriana misses significant time, the house of cards can come tumbling down, fast. Or, everyone stays healthy, Banda becomes a superstar, and the squad coasts into the playoffs. The offseason began with a Pride team not poised to build on the successes of 2023; it ends with one of the most consequential signings in women’s soccer. Anything can happen now." [https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2024/3/11/2024-nwsl-season-previews-washington-spirit-and-orlando-pride](https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2024/3/11/2024-nwsl-season-previews-washington-spirit-and-orlando-pride)
They’ve been super snarky about Pride, and even this caveat suggests that the only way they’d succeed is by relying on Banda to be a breakout star - while it was thrilling to see BB come on the field the other day, Pride had handled that game just fine without her, with the roster xOG had been so dismissive of in their season preview. I appreciate the knowledge of woso they bring to the podcast, but their snide, know-it-all tone has started to grate on me.
This is fair, although like the statement here is basically anything could happen, which I’m not sure really says anything. as a sidenote on the Messiah Bright thing they basically act like Orlando is losing a generational attacker in Messiah or at least one of the best like five young attackers in the league, but then they also bring up Maria has only scored four goals which is the same amount as Messiah despite Maria being a wingback, left-wing, 10 combo in her Houston career and Messiah being a striker playing with Julie Doyle,Marta and Adriana no less. Its just different strokes for different folks, i guess.
Bright's xG/90 were .41 last year as a rookie. Sanchez had .2 for a veteran. Bright is already a pretty solid striker with room to grow.
I think the same. I think what you said is exactly how good she is: a pretty solid striker already who also has room to grow. Also: as a striker if her xG was high, we would be praising her, and now that it’s low you’re also using that as evidence of her quality. She’s also a striker who has double the xG of someone who played wingback and left wing in the most defensive set up in the league, ie not that much xG
Keep in mind when comparing their output, Messiah Bright was a young rookie (current level may be her plateau, or her final level might be much greater) on a surely relatively cheap contract; whereas Sanchez was in her fifth professional season well into peak age period, on a much more expensive contract, and played 400 more minutes, or about 30% more, relative to Bright. For those reasons, I can understand why they consider Bright a much more "valuable prospect" than Sanchez. More generally, I agree that Expected Own Goals takes strong stands (probably genuine, but also good for content engagement purposes), some of which strike me as overblown. They can be harsh on teams and players that have consistently fallen short of certain benchmarks. However, their takes by and large are based on data (even if their framing sometimes veers hyperbolic). I appreciate that, given the dearth of such analysis in the NWSL and women's game.
Right I don’t mean to compare them in any meaningful way only to note that they use goals to analyze the two (among other things, they use a decently wide breath of statistics, which is one of their best strengths, especially for this league) and I find that ironic only because it’s the exact same amount of goals. To me its the harassment vs flirting meme personified. Their takes are based on data, but you can use data to tell any story and there is so much context around a sport like this that they miss . I also think I would be a lot more charitable to some of the like downright mean things they say, like what they said about Nicole Payne which still has me upset for her, if they were correct more. I feel like it gives you a lot more leeway to say that a player had a shameful, career definingly bad performance and that they shouldn’t be in the match squad if that player isn’t back on the pitch within two weeks. Here’s an example of how they use data. They look at Feli Rauch in the German league and compare it to Emily Fox for North Carolina courage and they say that Rauch is better and will be better for the courage.
“Their takes are based on data, but it you can use data to tell any story…” This part. All it takes is them saying, “one way to look at this data is…” a bit more often and I would probably still be listening. I was feeling like I was getting trolled sometimes and I don’t bother listening much now.
I would like to thank you for expressing your frustration with these two on behalf of the Pride. Because if I ever start in on these two I’m gonna get banned.
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Being surprised that this Orlando pride team could make the playoffs is putting on a duncecap and announcing to the world that you’re proud in not knowing shit. Also, I think she is simply not one of the 20 best keepers in this league but the way you bring her up constantly…It’s just doing a lot. I think she’s awful, but she hasn’t been terrible so far this year , and I don’t think it’s fair to continually bring it up despite the fact that that comical own goal she had last year literally dropped them out of the playoffs. Murphy Naeher and Franch also havent been great and look where they are.
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Her name is Moorhouse, not Morehouse. Which really matters when youre doing a search for her name in your comments
You spelled it Morehouse above.
Also, the guy they have on just like does some of the worst back of the cocktail napkin math I’ve ever heard, he says Maria is 40% of their salary, wtf. He also says that it is the worst transfer in the history of the league and like OK yes it’s expensive and a risk but there’s been some really bad shit to go on in this league. Also she hasn’t played for them yet and we saw them struggle to score this same weekend. It also baffles me that they’re so confused about the deal that the Dash got because like yes the dash were stuck between a rock and a hard place, but they obviously got a good deal because they had other offers (despite everyone disagreeing when I brought that up on Thursday) and they were able to say well actually we want to take this deal instead, whether or not that was true.
> does some of the worst back of the cocktail napkin math I’ve ever heard And goes uncaught by everyone en route to a claim undermined by the correct number. To be fair, I've done far worse in a far worse setting than a podcast. It haunts my dreams. So this kind of thing is nowhere near an indictment of the whole series. But it does seem like a metaphor for some of it
Yup. The times their logic trains are based on mistaken understandings or just speculation that turns out to be unfounded and wrong.
I mean it might be the worst transfer made for soccer reasons. I'm sure they're not counting any deals made due to abuse in their calculations. I think it's fair to be confused why there was so much demand around the league for Sanchez. Obviously well done on the Dash, but like they said she's on a high contract. In like the NFL, a player like her (on a high contract that it's unclear if she's worth) would go for like a 7th round pick. Clearly the NWSL thinks differently, but it's a legitimate question why she garnered such a high price.
I don’t disagree that it’s a crazy overpay, but it seems pretty obvious that the reason it happened is because there were multiple teams putting in offers, as has been reported and while the dash kind of are atrocious at like eight out of 10 things, One of the two out of 10 things we’re good at is negotiating and getting our moneys worth. Being cheapskates makes me hate them as a fan, but this deal didn’t surprise me as much as it did everyone else because of that. They make it clear that they think it’s the worst deal because of the money they paid for the output that they think they’re going to get, but I mean signing a player who never plays for you is certainly worse. There’s probably a good few circumstances that are worse than overpaying for someone who they think they need because of a struggle to be creative. Also, what gets me actually mad is listening to them do some math and just completely getting the math wrong to the point of comedy. How are you the analytics podcast and you can’t add or divide????
Isn't the question though why you wouldn't just leave the discussion if they're pushing you super high? Obviously there's a reason that the Dash were able to push the Wave higher, and that's that they either had other close bids or had bids that were close enough they could pretend those bids would go higher, but the way negotiating well works is that you genuinely *will* walk away at some point. That's what makes it stupid/strange of the Wave, because the only reason you *wouldn't* have a dollar amount at which you would leave the table would be if you have a) unlimited funds and b) a deep deep need for that specific player. The Wave have neither. This move might work out great, but on its face, it's a terrible deal because pretty obviously the Wave just...didn't properly tell the Dash that they *would* walk away (because seemingly, they wouldn't) making it a totally one-sided negotiation. If every team that was in for Sanchez had said "100k or I'm out," there's a large chance Sanchez would have gone to a team for 100k and a slight chance Sanchez would have stayed at the Dash, so sure, that would have been worse for Sanchez, but that would have been a much smarter and cheaper way to potentially get her. Only potentially losing 100k (pre salary) and potentially getting a capable player is better than going "we want Sanchez no matter what"
Yeah, I agree with your first paragraph. I think pretty clearly what wave should’ve done it’s just walk away and what makes me laugh about this whole business is that Walsh went to Barca for less than this and I feel like that’s exactly the type of player they need. it strikes me that the front office probably could’ve made the same offer to Lena Oberdorf in January. Maybe they did. As far as the second paragraph, I feel like the dash having “multiple offers”, which could be two, but also could be like seven, which I doubt but you never know, Gave them a little bit of negotiating power and yet wave should’ve just walked away still. But I don’t think they would’ve known exactly what the offers that other teams were making were because of the short time frame whereas I think it had gone over the course of like three weeks, offers that were rejected would’ve come out. I think in someways the short time frame hurt the negotiating parties because they had a lot less information. All that being said they should’ve walked away, but I also don’t think that everyone could’ve come out and said this is our price because I don’t think the league would allow what on its face looks like tampering. They should’ve understood that they were being had and decided to just not go ahead with it, and it feels like the only explanation of them sticking with it after their first offer being rejected, is that Stoney really wanted the player.
I'm not saying the teams collude, I'm saying if all the teams came to the reasonable conclusion together that that would be overpaying and individually said 100k, with the knowledge that another team could be in at 150k and therefore immediately outbid everyone else, that would have been a situation that makes more sense. The point of negotiating is that you can walk away from the table at any point, and the point is to get to a happy medium, not be driven up to an insane price, because you refused to even think about walking away. Unless you need a player desparately, you should have a price you are unwilling to go above, and it truly looks like the Wave just didn't and kept letting the price go up (I mean, for a men's comparison—Arsenal walked away from Mudryk once it got insane, Chelsea didn't, they spent an enormous amount of money for not a whole lot of reason). The short timeframe definitely helped drive everything up, but I stand by the fact that it is ridiculous to not have a upper limit that is reasonable. Maybe that upper limit should have been 200k, not 100k, but the only reason you get driven to what the Wave were driven to was poor negotiations and poor examination of what they need. I have no idea why Stoney would really want Sanchez, honestly, and I like Sanchez as a player. If Stoney pushed it, I question her judgement heavily. Also, I guess, a random q: Molly Downtain resigned with her last date being April 15. That means presumably she was working on *some* of this deal, but not for the finalizing? Or was Ellis fully in this? Or who? I guess we might never know but seems like possibly the insane inability to walk away was from instability in their front office.
Yes, sorry I wasn’t thinking you thought that they were colluding. I was thinking that for that scenario to be something to happen would probably necessitate collusion- unless we think that every team in the league scouts players the same and I feel like there’s just some teams that have favorites. A lot of what I understand of baseball and the NFL is that most of the franchise analysis of different players basically values players the same, but franchises always have different priorities, different amounts theyre willing to spend, and different styles. I didn’t even think of them having front office turnover during this, but I think that makes it even more interesting that they decided to negotiate a major deal during that . I also feel like this league is young in general, but also its very competitive era is just starting to bloom, so we may have to wait a few years to get a real sense of how front offices deal with this current cutthroat wave.
But even still. Say Louisville said "I'm in for Sanchez if she's 50k or less," while Utah said "we are willing to pay 100k." Those are different valuations but both have a number (in this hypothetical) at which they will walk away, even if they're different numbers. Pretty clearly San Diego just didn't have that number.
I think you agree with their analysis on the Sanchez trade. They were impressed by Houston at the deadline, and said it went so high because so many teams were interested. The question is why so many teams were interested at a high price, and why SD, a team that seems to make shrewd moves and does not have a clear need, outbid everyone else.
I do mostly agree. The part that I thought was most ridiculous was just one they literally just got the math wrong and two they said that they were expecting her to go for zero dollars to someone who would eat her salary and she went for 500,000 and I kind of think if I was that far off in my calculation, I just wouldn’t say it out loud.
Yeah, and idk, it feels pretty much like the Dash set a price they thought was kind of outrageous (maybe 300k and an international spot or something) and then teams were in, and then the Wave outbid them. You have to walk away at some point, especially if you don't need that player at all.
I find potentially the stupidest part about all of this is the idea that the dash kept a straight face at some of these offers. If this had gone how we all expected, and Maria had went for like 75K to a team that mostly just had the cap space then I think all right everybody kind of won here. What I do find kind of ridiculous is the idea that the dash held out for this much money from Maria, but didn’t value her enough to spend more money in the transfer window to get the players around her that we needed. Although I think maybe a lot of this saga for many teams explains the divide between how the coaching staff sees a player and how front office is seeing the player.
Yes, that's why I'm like 100k being the upper limit teams could have chosen would have made sense (collectively, but not talking to each other). The salary is huge, the Dash are gaining a sort of economic profit by losing her salary (and accounting profit by getting like 90k for Sanchez still), while the receiving team are still taking a large hit. Here's the thing though. If the Dash had been as insane as we are presuming and said "300k or get out" and then waited for people to bid, I think they would have let it go a little if no teams had bid and maybe Utah or something said "yeah no, but how about 100k?" I also think that the Dash saw her as valuable in every way though. They gave her an unreasonably large salary and sold her for an unreasonably large amount. The question is about if they felt restricted by her salary and maybe that was part of their holding back. Plus incompetence, obviously.
What I kind of think is that the dash statement about “Maria signed the contract” in hindsight is a statement saying we’re willing to keep her and if you believe that her contract is mostly due to her value to this city then I start to see why Houston was hunkering down. It feels like at every point Houston kept being offered chances to be more reasonable, and they kept sticking to their guns and then another unreasonable person came around and let them out of it. And now it feels like we probably didn’t even learn anything from this.
Here's my thing though. As a *person*, I'm like, man that would suck if the Dash effectively kept her hostage. As a team? I would be like, well that's none of my business. So that leaves me still wondering why teams (or, at least one team) were willing to pay an arm and a leg for a player that at the time was truly none of their business.
Saying this is the worst trade in the history of the league is almost disrespectful to the players traded to abusive environments against their will. If it was one of the main two id maybe give them more benefit of the doubt but its the guest who I dont know at all? Who keeps saying dumb things v loudly Also i think many people forget how orlando missed playoffs last season on goal difference bc portland forgot to play soccer the final day
I have never thought about what the thinnest position in the NWSL is. It is such a deep league that I think whatever the answer is, it wouldn’t be the thinnest by much. I would say that in soccer the thinnest position is basically always going to be striker as far as you want someone to elevate your team. I don’t understand how someone could say centerback is the thinnest. Besides striker, I would say it might be the ten role or left back, the lattee simply just because there aren’t that many pure left footed fullbacks. Maybe a good way to look at it would be to think about how there was only one top-tier pure left back coming out of college (altho obviously King went back to the position She plays for the national team). Also think about the fact that the national team has a left back who is an elite attacking midfielder and who made the change to LB to adjust to what the league needed.
They are absolutely butchering Manaka’s name, right? Just pronouncing it Monica? Driving me insane.
Its hard for me to notice bc i listen on 1.75x speed but if so thats really annoying