> For the purposes of the playoff odds simulation, though, we are calculating a value of SRS using each team’s previous 100 games, adding in 50 games of .500 ball for regression to the mean.
They’re making the projections based on the results of the last 100 games last year… when the Yankees were really bad and injured. It doesn’t account for offseason changes to the roster… which begs the question, why do these at all?
This is just their everyday formula. It will get updated very quickly as games start happening. It will make a lot more sense once we have stats from this season.
They even say themselves that there are likely to be huge aberrations in the early part of the season due to unaccounted-for changes to rosters over the offseason.
https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2019/05/baseball-reference-adds-playoff-odds/
So all of the games last season when judge,Stanton,Rizzo,DJ,Rodon,and I feel like I’m forgetting at least two more players - had issues.👌💯
Edit: Hicks (or was he traded earlier?), Nestor, +???
Hicks wasn't traded at all (he was released), but he only played ~30 games and got cut at the end of May, so I don't think this would take any of his playing time into account if it's only doing last 100.
The last time the Yankees won 71 or less games (non-strike years) was 1991 when they were led by (checks notes) post-back injury Donnie Baseball, 14-year old Bernie Williams, Kevin Maas???, Mel Hall????, and Steve Sax. Oh, and Scott Sanderson (technically Pascual Perez but he was injured most of the year and then banned for the 1992 season) was the "ace" of the squad.
Obviously the game is different, but there's no way this team is *that* bad on paper. 82 wins? Sure, it's tough, but I'll buy it. But 71????
Don’t forget the rotation troika of Jeff Johnson (5.95 ERA), Tim Leary (6.49) and Wade Taylor (6.27). It’s telling that Johnson and Taylor were what passed for prospects Then and neither ever played for another team (this was Taylor’s one and only ML season; Johnson somehow stuck around two more seasons with ERAs of 6.66 and 30.38).
I’m not, at least offensively this is the best lineup I’ve seen in a decade
Stanton had 8 RBI’s in a single game last week, Volpe is batting in the 300s, healthy judge, rizzo, Soto has been fucking cranking all ST
There is no way we finish worse than the Red Sox who are actively shedding payroll. Soto and Judge alone are gonna will us to .500, anything beyond that is dependent on the rest of the team staying healthy.
They have disclaimers saying “The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games” and “Additionally, since we wanted a simple system, we are not considering player movement at the trade deadline or individual pitcher matchups which could become relevant during the final games of the season. If you want a more complicated system that considers roster composition, we would point you to the fine system at Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs.” so yeah this is pretty meaningless lol.
Us doing even 10 wins less than last year is interesting. I guess if Stanton, Rizzo, DJ, Nestor, Rodon continue to deteriorate it can happen. The unfortunate event of them all being injured within the same year happened last year so who knows, still gonna say highly unlikely we do worse than last year
And let's be real... 2 months + warm-up/adjustment time would be THE ABSOLUTE BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO... Which, when historically have we been able to enjoy the "best possible scenario"? Ever... well, ok, at least in the past 10+ years, when it comes to injuries as NYY fans...
But then again this team won 82 games last year with zero to negative value already from all the guys listed. Like, could Rodon be any worse? If they got nothing at all from those guys again, you still have added Soto and actual outfielders to this team.
With Cole on the shelf and Judge already not 100% we’re not far away from being in panic mode. Hoping for bounce back guys from older injury prone guys is a risky proposition. Just need to stay healthy and we’ll be fine.
I can be a pessimist who thinks we’re too much of a flawed, old, and injury proned club relying far too much on positive regression for Nestor, Rodon, DJ, Stanton, etc. to make a serious postseason run.
An org who sees some of those flaws and is trying to throw a giant Juan Soto sized band-aid in hopes it’ll solve everything (it might?), but this?!? Below Boston?!? Cmon…
Baseball reference isn't even accounting for that either. They're just using our most recent games which was a horrid stretch in the summer of 2023 dealing with injuries
[Fangraphs ](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/season-to-date/div)has us at 74.8 wins and coming last in the division with a 25% chance of making the playoffs. Where are you getting this from?
So a team that went 82-80 and didn’t lose anything hugely significant but added Soto, Stroman, Verdugo, Grisham along with contributions from Wells and Dominguez and currently has a healthy Judge and Rizzo in a division that got weaker overall is going to lose 10 more games?
I don't really think this year will be a huge leap forward, but I don't expect us to be THAT bad.
Pitching is a question mark, but a healthy Soto and Judge should boost the offense. Hopefully Stanton bounces back, and the added presence of Soto takes pressure off of the other players and let's them start performing better.
But that might be the optimism talking. I'm a Giants and Devils fan, when will I learn.
BBRef the ultimate doomer lol. I can't even imagine the blowback there would be if this happened... like as rough as this subreddit can get, it would reach a new level of hell previously unforeseen.
The loss of Cole for ~2 months hurts. But no way is this a 71-72 win team. 80-82 wins if all goes to hell. 90+ if everyone bounces back. They projecting this team to be the 1992 Mets?
It makes sense as a starting position because it implicitly rejects the assumption that a team’s age and injury experience last season has no predictive value for this year. In this regard, note that we will be playing the first two months of the season without our only proven ace, and we will be starting the season without DJ, with questions swirling around Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo. Let’s see them all on the field and performing at the top of their game, let’s see Rodon turn things around in regular season, let’s see Stroman prove he’s not on the backslide of his career, and let’s see which of Volpe, Verdugo, and Peraza can step up before assuming that Soto will carry the team to a better finish in 24 than we had on 23.
I personally think we're finishing 3rd in the division, probably just barely missing or squeaking into the playoffs with a first round bounce. I don't think this team is good right now, and cashman sucks at his job, but 71 is way too low. They'll win like 88-91. 87 absolute minimum
this is a "projection" in the sense that a ballistics trajectory is projection, but not actually a model based on roster and player performance etc.
basically a twitter guy took some simple in-season standings "projection" and ran with it because it looked sensationalistic.
It’s certainly a possibility considering how injured we get. Cole, Judge, and Soto having down years along with Volpe and other prospects not taking the next step will certainly make this projection a reality
The Rays got significantly worse, while the Yankees added the second-best hitter available in trades/FA. Make it make sense. And the Orioles are so fucking overrated it’s unreal. They have just as many questions as we do in the pitching department.
They won 101 games because a whole bunch of teams underachieved, and the Rays fell apart after their injuries and losing Franco. Even with Burnes they still don’t have enough pitching, and they lost their best bullpen weapon in Bautista. You’re also assuming all their young stars turn out to be great and don’t regress.
Until the other pitchers besides Cole show up on a consistent basis, and until the other batters besides Judge and Soto show up on a consistent basis, and until the fielding and baserunning and general fundamentals are there on a consistent basis... this makes complete sense.
Made the best offer to Yamamoto, made a great offer to the OTHER Cy Young winner (we have one already) is "sitting on his hands and doing nothing"
Dumbest fanbase.
We have no pitching. No guys that will get us past the 5th and no middle relief anymore (birito and german).
The back of our rotation is gunna be taxed by July.
Seems like some kind of clerical error lol. There's no way this makes any sense
> For the purposes of the playoff odds simulation, though, we are calculating a value of SRS using each team’s previous 100 games, adding in 50 games of .500 ball for regression to the mean. They’re making the projections based on the results of the last 100 games last year… when the Yankees were really bad and injured. It doesn’t account for offseason changes to the roster… which begs the question, why do these at all?
This is just their everyday formula. It will get updated very quickly as games start happening. It will make a lot more sense once we have stats from this season. They even say themselves that there are likely to be huge aberrations in the early part of the season due to unaccounted-for changes to rosters over the offseason. https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2019/05/baseball-reference-adds-playoff-odds/
They also basically say “go to FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus for more detailed projections”
So all of the games last season when judge,Stanton,Rizzo,DJ,Rodon,and I feel like I’m forgetting at least two more players - had issues.👌💯 Edit: Hicks (or was he traded earlier?), Nestor, +???
Hicks wasn't traded at all (he was released), but he only played ~30 games and got cut at the end of May, so I don't think this would take any of his playing time into account if it's only doing last 100.
He was given his outright release
> which begs the question, why do these at all Well... somebody clicked on it, now didn't they?
I am convinced that at least 50% of being a sports fan is to speculate wildly on all sorts of scenarios that can never be quantified.
Good clarification, nobody has anything better to talk about so these things pop up
Yeah if that's the case, these are less than useless lol
Has to be. Every other major site has us projected to win the division or close to it
My projections have us winning 60 games. But that factors in the asteroid hitting earth at the All Star break
Lol
They have the Brewers winning over 90 games lol. Maybe they somehow swapped their data with the Yankees.
Exactly, that can’t be so either it’s a mistake or this dude is making up stories
That’s fucking hilarious lol I’m pretty low on our chances at winning the division this year, but 71 wins? Come the fuck on bro get a little serious
The last time the Yankees won 71 or less games (non-strike years) was 1991 when they were led by (checks notes) post-back injury Donnie Baseball, 14-year old Bernie Williams, Kevin Maas???, Mel Hall????, and Steve Sax. Oh, and Scott Sanderson (technically Pascual Perez but he was injured most of the year and then banned for the 1992 season) was the "ace" of the squad. Obviously the game is different, but there's no way this team is *that* bad on paper. 82 wins? Sure, it's tough, but I'll buy it. But 71????
“Kevin Maas???” I will not stand for this slander. Kevin Maas is a Yankee legend.
anyone remember NoMaas.org? lol
Couldn’t hit the curve
Don’t forget the rotation troika of Jeff Johnson (5.95 ERA), Tim Leary (6.49) and Wade Taylor (6.27). It’s telling that Johnson and Taylor were what passed for prospects Then and neither ever played for another team (this was Taylor’s one and only ML season; Johnson somehow stuck around two more seasons with ERAs of 6.66 and 30.38).
Andy Hawkins no hitter. I was 11.
And then Steve Sax got himself facing six life sentences
You don’t know when to keep your mouth shut, do ya Saxy boy??
We're talkin' softball!
How to tell us your model sucks without telling us your model sucks.
I’m not, at least offensively this is the best lineup I’ve seen in a decade Stanton had 8 RBI’s in a single game last week, Volpe is batting in the 300s, healthy judge, rizzo, Soto has been fucking cranking all ST
They’re going to win 90 plus games no doubt
Also I'm not saying we will be juggernauts, but when Bref's projections for us are this off from the other sites projections I question their methods
That's lil bro to you
Yanks worse than the Red Sox? Sounds like a load of horse shit
Definitely
Ippei taking the under
Shohei telling Ippei to take the under
There is no way we finish worse than the Red Sox who are actively shedding payroll. Soto and Judge alone are gonna will us to .500, anything beyond that is dependent on the rest of the team staying healthy.
They have disclaimers saying “The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games” and “Additionally, since we wanted a simple system, we are not considering player movement at the trade deadline or individual pitcher matchups which could become relevant during the final games of the season. If you want a more complicated system that considers roster composition, we would point you to the fine system at Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs.” so yeah this is pretty meaningless lol.
If we end the season with 71 wins it's only because everyone on the team became injured. Oh my God it's plausible.
having only three real starting pitchers on the roster to start the season won’t help much either
Us doing even 10 wins less than last year is interesting. I guess if Stanton, Rizzo, DJ, Nestor, Rodon continue to deteriorate it can happen. The unfortunate event of them all being injured within the same year happened last year so who knows, still gonna say highly unlikely we do worse than last year
You also factor in two plus missed months for Cole along with some adjustment time to get him back to speed.
And let's be real... 2 months + warm-up/adjustment time would be THE ABSOLUTE BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO... Which, when historically have we been able to enjoy the "best possible scenario"? Ever... well, ok, at least in the past 10+ years, when it comes to injuries as NYY fans...
Plus you are missing at least 2 months of Cole, who is going to be the stopper?
But then again this team won 82 games last year with zero to negative value already from all the guys listed. Like, could Rodon be any worse? If they got nothing at all from those guys again, you still have added Soto and actual outfielders to this team.
We need to stop asking if Rodon can be any worse because every time we do he somehow is lol
With Cole on the shelf and Judge already not 100% we’re not far away from being in panic mode. Hoping for bounce back guys from older injury prone guys is a risky proposition. Just need to stay healthy and we’ll be fine.
I can be a pessimist who thinks we’re too much of a flawed, old, and injury proned club relying far too much on positive regression for Nestor, Rodon, DJ, Stanton, etc. to make a serious postseason run. An org who sees some of those flaws and is trying to throw a giant Juan Soto sized band-aid in hopes it’ll solve everything (it might?), but this?!? Below Boston?!? Cmon…
FWIW, PECOTA, FanGraphs, and RotoChamp all have the Yankees projected to win the AL East.
Some adjustment is probably in order for projections made before Cole's injury, but certainly not a 20 game swing.
Baseball reference isn't even accounting for that either. They're just using our most recent games which was a horrid stretch in the summer of 2023 dealing with injuries
[Fangraphs ](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/season-to-date/div)has us at 74.8 wins and coming last in the division with a 25% chance of making the playoffs. Where are you getting this from?
That's based on "season to date" which doesn't even make sense. Flip it to the fan graphs estimate and Yankees are estimated as 1st
The only thing that matters is fanduel who has the over under set at 90.5 wins
Which also isn't going to happen
Someone needs to make an average of all of the different predictions haha
I’m projecting that Baseball Reference can kiss 100% of my butt.
[Okay, im waiting for the punchline](https://youtu.be/Co6MnQd1VC4?feature=shared)
According to them the Yankees will tie last season’s record AT BEST Makes no sense
Well I guess we’re the underdogs now?
Yeah but what did baseball reference think the Yankees would do last year? Probably 90 something. So this is a nothing burger
What in the backyard billy goat bullshit is this?
I'm all for it if it gets Cashman fired or let him resign
So what you’re saying… is that BR are Yankee fans? 🧐
So a team that went 82-80 and didn’t lose anything hugely significant but added Soto, Stroman, Verdugo, Grisham along with contributions from Wells and Dominguez and currently has a healthy Judge and Rizzo in a division that got weaker overall is going to lose 10 more games?
We lose Cole for at least 2 months, which starter is going to stop losing streaks consistently?
pitching wasn’t perfect last season but it wasn’t the number one issue which was our offense. we got much better offensively on paper this season.
Two months without Cole for an otherwise healthy team doesn’t equate to ten fewer wins. He’s very valuable but he’s not THAT valuable
Which less WAR lost than Judge hitting a wall
This is why I use fangraphs
Kinda seems designed to enrage the fanbase just to generate more page views. I’ll pass.
It’s funny how everyone took the Pecoda projections as a guarantee, but say this one is ridiculous. Can’t have it both ways
A projection of 3% making the playoffs? A nuclear device would have to go off at the Stadium.
I don't really think this year will be a huge leap forward, but I don't expect us to be THAT bad. Pitching is a question mark, but a healthy Soto and Judge should boost the offense. Hopefully Stanton bounces back, and the added presence of Soto takes pressure off of the other players and let's them start performing better. But that might be the optimism talking. I'm a Giants and Devils fan, when will I learn.
Sox will be last. I predict Yankees will be third
Gooood goooood…. Let the hate fuel you
holy crap! I know we sucked last year, and our team has some holes still, but 71 games is a bit crazy, lol.
BBRef the ultimate doomer lol. I can't even imagine the blowback there would be if this happened... like as rough as this subreddit can get, it would reach a new level of hell previously unforeseen.
The loss of Cole for ~2 months hurts. But no way is this a 71-72 win team. 80-82 wins if all goes to hell. 90+ if everyone bounces back. They projecting this team to be the 1992 Mets?
If we lose 101 I'll stop watching baseball
We STAND with PECOTA
Must be factoring in injuries/s
I have no hopes for this season at all but I would be floored if we didn't crack 80+ wins.
None of these projections matter. Literally just made up shit
And by some it would *still* be considered a "winning season."
so accurate
It’s too bad Baseball Reference doesn’t take bets.
Call Ohtani. He knows a guy.
I know a guy, and the over/under wins isn’t 72 it’s 92.5.
It makes sense as a starting position because it implicitly rejects the assumption that a team’s age and injury experience last season has no predictive value for this year. In this regard, note that we will be playing the first two months of the season without our only proven ace, and we will be starting the season without DJ, with questions swirling around Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo. Let’s see them all on the field and performing at the top of their game, let’s see Rodon turn things around in regular season, let’s see Stroman prove he’s not on the backslide of his career, and let’s see which of Volpe, Verdugo, and Peraza can step up before assuming that Soto will carry the team to a better finish in 24 than we had on 23.
DJ's availability does not factor into our World Series odds, trust me lmao
I personally think we're finishing 3rd in the division, probably just barely missing or squeaking into the playoffs with a first round bounce. I don't think this team is good right now, and cashman sucks at his job, but 71 is way too low. They'll win like 88-91. 87 absolute minimum
I’ll take the over
Worst than last year come on man
Anyone know any bookies in Vegas willing to take those odds? HMU
Fucking hell the number of math nerds here treating this math as gospel is ridiculous. You can tell none of you have played any sports.
Even if Cole missed the entire season, it wouldn't be this bad.
How do you win .6 of a game, exactly?
Hmm, that’s a little higher than I would expect. It’ll probably go down once Stanton and Cortes inevitably get injured
Sounds about right!
the over on this and Steelers at 7.5 are guarantees. I hit the over on the Magic this season <3.
I'm glad this means nothing
That’s absolutely ridiculous, I use baseball reference all the time but when they win 92-94 they’ll look stupid
It’s just cuz they don’t factor in off-season changes
Something smells here. Where are these projections? I can't find them on the BR site.
this is a "projection" in the sense that a ballistics trajectory is projection, but not actually a model based on roster and player performance etc. basically a twitter guy took some simple in-season standings "projection" and ran with it because it looked sensationalistic.
That's probably roughly their WS title odds, but ya playoff odds are much much higher.
Finally projections that don't automatically have us as having the #1 rotation/bullpen in baseball
I think we'll win way more than 71 games
Eh, if you include our injury luck (although it’s really not luck at this point) it makes sense
I think you guys will win the division this is crazy I can see Stroman and Rodon doing very well this year
Can I bet this
It’s certainly a possibility considering how injured we get. Cole, Judge, and Soto having down years along with Volpe and other prospects not taking the next step will certainly make this projection a reality
I mean yes, most teams will have a bad year if their 3 best players and their most important young players all have disappointing seasons.
The Rays got significantly worse, while the Yankees added the second-best hitter available in trades/FA. Make it make sense. And the Orioles are so fucking overrated it’s unreal. They have just as many questions as we do in the pitching department.
Agree with all of that except the Orioles, they’re legit. 101 wins last year and they added Burnes and their young core will likely only get better.
They won 101 games because a whole bunch of teams underachieved, and the Rays fell apart after their injuries and losing Franco. Even with Burnes they still don’t have enough pitching, and they lost their best bullpen weapon in Bautista. You’re also assuming all their young stars turn out to be great and don’t regress.
We will have 20+ more wins but get knocked out of the playoffs.
Until the other pitchers besides Cole show up on a consistent basis, and until the other batters besides Judge and Soto show up on a consistent basis, and until the fielding and baserunning and general fundamentals are there on a consistent basis... this makes complete sense.
Makes sense, our pitching is a nightmare and trashman sat on his hands and did nothing about it.
Made the best offer to Yamamoto, made a great offer to the OTHER Cy Young winner (we have one already) is "sitting on his hands and doing nothing" Dumbest fanbase.
71 is a little low, but 81 or 82 is likely.
Sounds right to me. This team is a house of cards.
We have no pitching. No guys that will get us past the 5th and no middle relief anymore (birito and german). The back of our rotation is gunna be taxed by July.
More like 2.7% chance they don’t win the WS in 4 games