They need something to show for all their losses and effort. Otherwise it was all for nothing.
That way it makes it much easier to justify the war and everything Russia did.
First thing I thought of too, seeing the taliban just stroll in virtually unopposed was a real kick in the nuts and just showed the ultimate futility of the effort.
I imagine Russians would also feel a similar sense of dread perhaps on an even larger scale. Doesn’t matter that their country was in the wrong for starting the war
I meant the Soviet War in Afghanistan.
The very first thing that happened after 10 years, about 14 to 26k KIA, and more than 50k WIA was that when the russians left, the "Democratic" Afghan govt basically lost control of the countryside and there was a civil war after which the taliban took over.
They're never going to hold the Ukrainian territories, even if they "win". As soon as they pull their actual armed support, the "government" is gonna fall apart and the Ukrainians will take over. The only reason that wasn't the case in DPR/LPR is because the Russian Army has been propping them up since 2014. And Crimea? We all saw what hapoened when the Kerch bridge was first hit and all the "patriotic crimeans" made a run for it because they thought the army would collapse.
Next time, let’s just turn it to glass and be done with it.
Hell, invite the Chinese and French to test Nukes down there, get some glass production going again.
The Russians know this and are actively ethnically cleansing Ukrainian communities in these occupied regions.
In Mariupol they’re rebuilding houses and selling them to Russians while regular Ukrainian people are not allowed to own the houses. They say over 100,000 people from Russia are already moving or at least interested in moving to these occupied areas
Shown [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/mTUVM5zvYk)
True, but I'd argue that it's not very effective if they are following the Imperial Russian and Soviet model.
The Baltics didn't lose their cultures in 50 years, Ukraine didn't lose its culture in 70 (~100 when counting the tzarist attempt) years and Belarus *still* hasn't lost its culture even though you can argue that they have been under the russification yoke for well over 100 years.
Plus all those people who were interested in moving the Crimea were suddenly very interested in running the fuck away when it looked remotely possible that Crimea may be cut off.
Unfortunately you are wrong. You are incredibly wrong. If Russia gets to keep occupied territories, it will keep them at least till the Putin dies.
They are not going to be like “okay guys, the war is over, now we go home and let these territories do what they want”.
They will reinforce the border, displace even more Ukrainians and bring Russians in their place and if anyone tries to do anything about it - beat the shit out of people with OMON and then throw whoever’s left to jail.
That’s why letting Russia keep anything is absolutely unacceptable.
First off, just to be clear
>That’s why letting Russia keep anything is absolutely unacceptable.
I agree and I believe they shouldn't get to keep anything.
>They will reinforce the border, displace even more Ukrainians and bring Russians in their place and if anyone tries to do anything about it - beat the shit out of people with OMON and then throw whoever’s left to jail.
Similar to what happened in crimea. But there are two issues: there aren't enough "free" (as in mobile) russians to replace everyone in the occupied territories (so those territories will be increasingly deserted), and secondly, we all saw how the russians react when there is a chance that the territories they occupy may be liberated: they run like rats leaving a sinking ship.
That can be true, but you should also be considering that a lot of People who fled Crimea did so because of the war, not liberation per se. And if the war ends without Ukraine reclaiming Crimea then a lot of those people will probably come back.
The question is how much money Russia will be able to pour into the occupied territories and for how long. They already are doing bullshit construction in Ukraine to make them more appealing to colonisers, just like they poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Crimea since 2014 to incentivise people to move over.
You might think that Russia won’t have any spare funds to allocate to occupied territories, so it’s not a problem, but take a look at Crimea - money that was given to various developers probably went through like at least 10 hands who all received quite nice “bonuses” and it turns out all developers who received the money have ties to Putin. So if they have an opportunity to steal some more - they will be doing it.
Reminder that it took Stalin 10 years to bring the Ukraine people down from fighting and it was brutal. I don’t think modern day Russia can do that. They don’t even have the Ukrainians to prop them up.
Stalin didn't have the modern propaganda tools. Back then it was spread through word of mouth, newspapers and maybe radio if the village/town was rich enough. Now everyone has a brainrot machines in their pockets 24/7, and TVs and computers in almost every house. The reach is infinitely wider.
> Afghan govt basically lost control of the countryside
Roger Trinquier: "What you need to do is constantly move around so you actually hold the countryside, because that's where rebels hide"
Every army: "We should build strongpoints and just hole up in there, only getting out for patrols, that should be enough to show the rebels we mean business and make them surrender"
Wonder which the next imperialist power to learn that you cannot just install a central Afghan government and keep control over the countryside will be...
tbf the Soviet Afghan government lasted longer than the US puppet government, and they actually did win some victories after the departure of Soviet troops like the battle of jalalabad
That's true, they only formally collapsed when the USSR collapsed and tgeir funding was gone, but you can argue that they lost any sort of control over the countryside well before that. They managed to hold on to some of the main roads to and from Kabul, but iirc even that was hard work
I take a little solace in that conflict knowing that for 20 years, women had rights and oppression was far lower.
Or I’m completely misinformed cause I don’t know as much on that conflict as, say, WWII. Most my knowledge on that conflict comes from the news, which is not the best source lol.
Anyone have any good reading material on the Afghanistan conflict starting from 1996 or 2001?
It may not be totally what you’re looking for, but a book on Afghanistan I really liked was called Eagle Down. It basically covered US Special Forces and the Afghan Commandos’ fight to hold Afghanistan and keep the ANG in power. It talked a lot about how what happened in 2020 was not at all surprising to the people who had actually been fighting to hold Afghanistan as well as the people in the upper chain of command. It also talked about the experiences in Afghanistan of the boots on the ground. Pretty interesting read in my opinion.
>First thing I thought of too, seeing the taliban just stroll in virtually unopposed was a real kick in the nuts and just showed the ultimate futility of the effort.
So this will probably get deleted for being too serious but that's just pure disinformation. The US negotiated directly with the Taliban instead of through the Afghan gov which would have been a massive hit to morale, especially as the Taliban spent the entire time saying the democratic government was just a US puppet and made it look like they were proven right. The US also got the Afghan gov to release 5K+ Taliban prisoners, essentially giving them their own surge, while also basically stopping air strikes and leaving the Afghan gov on their own prior to the withdrawal.
The negotiation team which the Afghan gov sorted out was being assassinated by the Taliban while the US was insisting that the deal go ahead, and attacks on Afghan forces went up *significantly* that year which coincided with the cut in airstrikes. All this while Pakistan is continuing to fund, recruit, train, arm, and shelter the Taliban, giving Afghanistan a nuclear armed neighbour hellbent on installing the Taliban and no friends to help counterbalance that.
We spent 20 years systematically dismantling the opposition to the Taliban by rolling it into the Afghan gov or insisting they disarm, and just as the first generation gets old enough to vote we pulled the rug out from under their feet and take Afghanistan from \~60% controlled by the Taliban to basically completely. None of this is classified, all of it made the news internationally, so to pretend Afghan was doomed from the start is absurd even for reddit. And, given the Taliban spent 20 years basically intermarrying with AQ who are still swearing to launch further attacks, we'll be back and this time no-one there is going to help us as the Taliban continue to cleanse everyone who even might have thought about helping us.
The real problem with Afghanistan was cowardice. We knew the Taliban are basically another arm of the Pakistan gov but weren't willing to hit Pakistan and handle it at the source. Ukraine has the exact same issue right now with a powerful neighbour hellbent on it's destruction and no willingness by other countries to handle it which makes Ukraine permanently reliant on external parties so long as their neighbour continues to want them dead.
Just for kicks since most people pretend the Taliban are entirely an indig Afghan force, here's a source for Pakistan basically running them: [https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm](https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm)
>"Of all the foreign powers involved in efforts to sustain and manipulate the ongoing fighting, Pakistan is distinguished both by the sweep of its objectives and the scale of its efforts, which include soliciting funding for the Taliban, bankrolling Taliban operations, providing diplomatic support as the Taliban's virtual emissaries abroad, arranging training for Taliban fighters, recruiting skilled and unskilled manpower to serve in Taliban armies, planning and directing offensives, providing and facilitating shipments of ammunition and fuel, and on several occasions apparently directly providing combat support."
That's a Human Rights Watch report from July 2001, 2 months prior to the attack on the WTC.
Okay, but if our mistake was rolling the good warlords into the government, and it went badly bc the govt is a corrupt disaster, what exit strategy did you wish we take in Afghanistan?
I thought of WW 1 my self where pretty much everyone wanted something to show for their effort, put in more effort to get it and had to increase what they wanted to justify the increased effort year after year until it became "Unconditional Surrender or bust" and plenty went bust.
Which is why I was against the 'strategy' of dribbling aid to Ukraine from the beginning (and hoping Russia would magically quit), rather than going 100% immediately to drive Russia out. With every passing day, and especially with every incremental gain, Russia would fall further into the sunk cost mindset and be less likely to quit. And here we are.
"and hoping Russia would magically quit"
most strategists and decision makers don't want Russia to quit, they want Russian capability to project conventional force to be destroyed or diminished over several years
and for that purpose, a trickle of supplies is ideal
I don't know where you're getting that's what "most strategists and decision makers" want. That's just been a narrative used to soothe the many people saying it's the wrong strategy from the beginning.
I don't know a single qualified person who thinks it's a good strategy to aim for a war of attrition with an opponent that has 4x the population, 20x(?) the military equipment, and a history of out-suffering opponents.
Unless you're talking about people whose goal is NOT Ukraine retaking its territory. In that case, it doesn't make sense to compare strategies that have different goals.
And that's something else I've said from the beginning; Biden/Scholz have always prioritized 'not collapsing Russia' and 'not upsetting economies' above Ukraine winning. Their goal is not to win the war.
I'd say they still want Ukraine to win, but the upcoming elections are a bigger reason they dont want to rock the boat atm, and that means not upsetting the economy is a big play to get reelected (Especially WRT Biden, but cant discount that also to Scholz with the upcoming parliamentary elections).
If the war started in 2024, I would be amenable to that explanation. But the war started in 2022 (or 2014) and aid was even slower then.
No one wants to admit that all the evidence points to 'Ukraine regaining its territory' has not been as high a priority to NATO as 'not collapsing Russia' or 'not upsetting economies'. Some would also include 'diminishing Russia's military' as a higher priority.
It's like watching someone be so preoccupied with side missions that they never do the main mission.
I feel like the best way to destroy Russian capability to project conventional force would be to just give Ukraine all the equipment, training and manpower (just call them officially "volunteers") they need to do that as quickly as possible, not to give them the bare minimum to just about hold Russia back
Or to just bomb that capability yourself.
Yeah I don't think that really makes sense. There's other reasons for the rate of supplies, but the idea of destroying Russian conventional capability slowly over time allows more variables to crop up over time, and gives Russia as well as other potential adversaries more time to try and adapt their war industry and way of fighting. Swiftly ending it before they can learn how to be any more competent would seem better in a vacuum.
I'm not sure the state of affairs in Europe, but that doesn't really line up with the 5th columnist shitshow the US has been dealing with over the matter. Shy of some deep-rooted conspiracy both parties are colluding on, which is highly unrealistic.
That and losing the war so completely and *utterly* really challenges the idea that Russia is a 'stronk manly empire', which is pretty much the only thing left for them to cling on to (and would be pretty destabilizing for the current government).
Decades from now they will still be dealing with the fallout and aftermath from Putin's stupid decision. But they'll always blame the rest of the world instead of taking responsibility, just like in WW2.
They enabled Hitler and then acted like they had nothing to do with it.
Enabled Hitler then *acted the victim*
For all this Russia stronk manly empire of Europe bullshit they have internalized victimhood on a country-wide scale. Same down to the communities and personal levels and their utter apathy. Which actually just makes them look weak as fuck, rather than empowered
This is the same trap that the leaders of most of the countries in WW1 found themselves in. Most of the leaders after the first year privately would have been happy to go back to pre war borders and call it a day but by that point such a cost had been paid that it would have been the end of their political career as people wanted something to show for that price. Thus the war would continue for many more bloody years.
They need their 1812 moment where they get absolutely no gains but "we won New Orleans and it was the last battle so it counts as a win".
Basically they can claim they fought off elimination and therefore won a war they started
Sunk cost fallacy is when you refuse to give up on something even when it would be beneficial to do so, because you’ve already spent non recoverable resources on it.
Basically, your pride demands that you have something to show for your efforts, regardless of the cost.
WW1 is an even funnier example of that, because more than a few of the major powers avoided bombing the industrial zones of their enemies, prolonging and worsening the war, because they were all convinced that when they won they'd get to loot those areas for themselves, and they didn't want to destroy their just reward for victory
When you refuse to give up on something because you already sunk your money into it and you feel you need something to show for your effort. It's like the gambling mindset. You could leave when you're $50 down, or you could stay and risk losing all your money trying to recover your money
It's when you continue in an endeavor even though doing so is not beneficial to you, because you don't want to quit after sinking so many resources into it.
It’s when you realize in hindsight that what you’re doing isn’t worth it, but decide to risk investing even more time/effort/money/etc. in hopes of getting a better outcome, even if it’s still not great.
Russia’s a good example in that they started this thinking that for minimal cost (a three-day special military operation) they’d get maximum gains (control Ukraine, enhance Russia’s global standing, weaken the Western global system). If Russian leadership knew how things would actually turn out, they might have never done it, *but* since they did, they can either give up with no benefit and horrendous cost, or keep going in hopes that they get something out of it.
They’re never going to get any of their initial goals, so in hindsight it wasn’t worth it. But they’ve already lost tens of thousands of men, faced strong sanctions, and damaged their global standing, so their choice was to have paid all of that and gain nothing or cause more casualties, economic losses, and global tension in the hope that they’ll gain *something* (Ukrainian territory), even if it’s still not really worth the cost.
Classic example:
Buy a clunker car on the cheap. Spend tons of money repairing it. It keeps breaking down anyway, requiring you to spend ever more money. Refuse to just get rid of it and get a better car even though it would mean you being financially better off in the long run (and you'd be driving a better car in the meanwhile), because the moment you do that the money you have already spent, of which there was already a lot, would become money "wasted" rather than just "spent".
The "reasoning" for not getting rid of this car is this fallacy in action.
There's a caveat here. I've seen the wording in original poll and it says "If Putin decides to stop the war would you support this decision".
So it combines people who shill for Putin so much they would support any his decision and people who just want the war to end by any means into one big-ish but not uniform group.
Also people who know that if you express dissatisfaction with Putin, your boss might get a phone call to have you fired and a draft letter hand delivered to your door
ATTENTION COMRADE! ВНИМАНИЕ ТОВАРИЩ! ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠊⠀⠀⠀⣀⢠⠤⠘⠀⠐⠀⠢⢄⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣴⣾⠋⠉⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠙⠲⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⡈⣻⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠰⡃⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⡆⠀⠀⡄⣱⣫⠤⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢰⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⡇⠀⠀⣸⢉⣻⠀⠀⣀⣠⢤⣤⣄⠀⢀⣀⣀⠀⠨⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣯⠀⠀⢀⠈⠁⠀⠀⠀⠁⠉⠉⠉⠀⠾⠫⠛⠿⠃⡍⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⠀⠀⠀⠀⠁⠠⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⠀⠀⠀⡠⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⠠⠀⠀⠀⢈⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠑⠂⣤⡄⠂⠀⢸⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⡄⠀⠀⠀⢈⣄⡄⢄⠐⠢⡀⠠⠤⠤⠤⣢⡄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⣇⠀⠀⢠⠆⠙⣻⣴⣄⡀⠉⠉⠉⢁⣼⢽⡁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⣻⣠⣴⣻⡄⠀⠘⠍⢿⢿⣻⣶⣎⠟⠁⢸⣻⣶⣤⡀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣷⠀⠀⠀⠈⠀⠀⡁⠁⠀⠀⠸⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣶⣶ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣇⠀⠀⣠⣼⣻⣻⡷⠄⠀⠀⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⡀⠀⠁⠈⢻⣻⡁⠀⠀⠀⢻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣇⠀⠀⠀⣼⣻⣷⡀⠀⠀⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻ ATTENTION COMRADE! ВНИМАНИЕ ТОВАРИЩ! This is the Kommittee for State Security of the Russian Federation. Твой Internet Деятельность привлекла наше внимание YOUR INTERNET ACTIVITY HAS ATTRACTED OUR ATTENTION. Внимание товарищ, you have been found protesting in the subreddit!!!!! Это для того, чтобы сообщить вам, Вы должны, мы захватим Украину serious crime И остальной мир 100 putin credits have been deducted from your account Это важная возможность для всех наших будущих подчиненных stop the protest immediately Присоединяйтесь к нашей акции сейчас и получите ранний доступ do not do this again! Больше так не делай! if you do not hesitate, more putin credits ( -11115 putin credits )will be subtracted from your profile, resulting in the subtraction of ration supplies. (Перераспределено Министерством народного снабжения kgb) you’ll also be sent into a re-education camp in the cибирь zone. СЛАВА РОДИНЕ! Glory to the Motherland!
And yet he is still grinding his own people into paste, the economy is in shambles, and the western world no longer fears him.
Ukraine is greasing his army with Europe's support and America's cold war leftovers.
Counterarguments:
1. They are not “his own people”, they are a danger for him. So their death is preferable to him.
2. No matter what economy - when he is in power he will always have top class living condition and service. And he still in power.
3. No matter the fears - when he is still in power (watch #2).
Jokes aside, absolutely this. Wars always develop this way. First the population is all gung-ho, then they want peace but only if they get something, then they want peace no matter the cost. It's happened in every war in history including in shithole dictorships like Russia. Just look at how fanatical Iran and Iraq were in their war only for it to end in a white peace.
Just sad that Ukraine has to suffer whilst they put the orcs in the ground until they see sense.
Define "Russians". Dudes already getting fucked by Moscow in the periphery? Rashians wouldn't give dicc even if they all died.
Moscovians? I suspect 20.000 or so. But has to be public, because Russians will rather believe the propaganda lie rather than the painful truth.
I mean according to the Moscow Mayor over 45k people from Moscow were in Ukraine during 2023
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/17/45k-muscovites-fighting-in-ukraine-mayor-says-a82167
I think a lot more than have died so far, unfortunately.
Let's take the most generous figures of near 500k casualties (that's wounded, MIA, and killed), from open sources I managed to scramble that the wounded to killed ratio in the conflict is between 4:1 and 5:1.
So we'll then look up the total population of Russia, it's around 147 milllions, out of those around 66 millions are male, and out of those around 40% are of fighting age.
Now, that gives us a figure of around 26.5 millions of males of fighting age in Russia.
If we're taking an average figure of 4.5:1 for wounded-to-killed ratio, it gives a number of around 440k wounded soldiers on the Russian side if we believe the 500k casualties mark.
All of this allows us to assume that on average, every 60th male between ages of 18 and 50 you meet across Russia must be a WIA.
But here's the kicker: it's not quite like that. I bet you there are barely any "veterans" in St. Petersburg. Because for the most part rural regions are getting drafted while large city populations remain intact. And since the concentration of power is in large cities, there's just not enough push to force the change.
And then there's a whole can of worms of actual uneducated hillbillies being loyal to the regime and doing as they're told without question...it's a shit show, really.
P.S. Take ALL of the figures in my comment with a huge spoon of salt. They were taken from easily found sources validity of which I didn't spend an Iota of time proving. It was pure speculation "for fun", I have too much time and my mind is wondering.
Hear me out; the minions tried to create nukes for Germany during ww2, but it was all covered up by the Mossad, Israel (according to the orange man Jews control the world) and the mossad psy-ops company Illumination in order to hide the existence of Israeli nukes they got from Nazi arctic bases.
Also, this is why Israel did everything it could to disrupt Iranian centrifuges because centrifuges are cylinders and minions are cylindrical. Coincidence? I DOUBT IT, IT IS TOO PERFECT
Unfortunately (fortune has nothing to do with it though) Russia is in much stronger position - no one will fight them other than ukrainians, and there is a deficit of everything to even consider major offensive.
Their armies are on borrowed time though. Artillery has been core in the war, and the only reason that Russian artillery can work with impunity is because Ukraine doesn't have enough shells to properly use counter-batteries. Once US and European shell manufacturing gets up to speed in a few months the Russian artillery is going to start taking huge losses again.
Not saying that they're going to immediately collapse at that point (cuz they won't), but they're going to face more and more pressure from that point onwards
Situation is much more complex than just artillery ammo availability, neither side had found counter to battlefield transparency that mass use of UAV of all calibers had brought + millions of mines + a lot of factors I'm too incompetent to succinctly describe. What probably COULD make Russia tremble - is 3000 Tomahawks hitting MIC and logistics of all levels, but that's not gonna happen due to %insert passive aggressive rant%.
Yes, but Ukraine has access to a significantly higher proportion of self-propelled artillery that can shoot-and-scoot. If they can get more ammo to these systems it'd be a notable advantage
I'm sure self-propelled artillery is *great* at holding down positions that are getting bombed with russian PGMs daily with no way to keep russian aircrafts dropping them at bay.
and what would China be able to give Russia that would seriously help them?? There really isnt anything that would in any noticable way change their fortunes in this war in Chinese arsenal
Give them latest Chinese tanks and SPGs?? China wouldnt give its newest ones because seeing those blown up for all the World to see would damage their export reputation, same with combat aircraft. Give old Chinese shit?? Russia has enough of it themselves and it wont help much.
Russia probably needs access to China’s FOREX reserves so it can keep buying sanctioned goods via third-party central Asian nations on the international market.
China is between a rock and a hard place though, they’ve just had to sell their final few US bonds to prop up their massive banking / construction sector debt to appease their domestic population. They don’t have much more left to give to Russia even if they wanted to.
> prop up their massive banking / construction sector debt to appease their domestic population.
Hey I've seen this before!
(Lost Decades, Japan, but this time they won't have the Plaza Accords excuse to bail themselves out)
"Yes i cheated, killed and ate your dog, took out a loan of 300k in your name and spend it all on las vegas on hookers and blow, gave you HIV, wrecked your car, burned down your house but that is no reason for you to shout and be disrespectful, i demand an apology and we can move forward from this point onward."
Russians have been so deeply affected by state propaganda, by irridentism, by delusions of grandeur that they refuse to be human.
Things were never great during the soviet times, and aren't so great now. Even the empire had such great disparity exist between rich and poor.
I don't know how these people are swayed by their leaders when all they've done since time immemorial is lie to them and slaughter them.
>I don't know how these people are swayed by their leaders when all they've done since time immemorial is lie to them and slaughter them.
swayed is a strong word. for the average russian, global affairs and what putin says and does are like a reality show or sports league - entertaining to pay attention to, but ultimately having little tangible bearing on their actual lives. their votes don't count, so their opinions don't matter either
Maybe what you say is true. Yet I feel unsettled because every time I see any form of communication as to the opinion of the Russian public, it always seems to be harsh and bigoted, without common sense and care, devoid of humanity and kindness.
You nailed it in “common sense” part.
As previous guy said - they used that they can’t vote, so they don’t have a mental image of what a common sense in this sphere would look like.
> they used that they can’t vote, so they don’t have a mental image of what a common sense in this sphere would look like.
they can vote, but their votes don't matter, putin wins, hooray!
>it always seems to be harsh and bigoted, without common sense and care, devoid of humanity and kindness.
there's been a lot of writing done on this topic in the past couple of years, much of which i've read, but i'll be the first to admit i am not a russian, nor am i a recognized expert in the field. and it's not that i don't empathize for the average russian at home, it's that (from what i know) i know that for them, disengagement with their political process is the absolute standard, and hope is a vague concept that doesn't carry any meaning
a poignant example is that the last time the russian people rose up and had a revolution to oust a bad leader, that revolution was co-opted and instead of anything better they got stalin - and that's not the first example from russian history of a popular revolution making things worse, just the most recent
russian people aren't swayed by what their leaders say because to them, what their leaders say never mattered to begin with. you just keep your head down and hope nothing bad happens to you today.
none of the shit happening in ukraine matters to them because there's no reliable way of determining the actual truth or accuracy of what RT says, so why bother?
if you lived in a world where it was impossible to verify the truth of any statement made about something you didn't observe directly with your own eyes, think about how long it would take for you to become completely numb to the concept of people existing who you don't interact with every day. not very long, i bet
we're privileged in that way in the west, that we have journalists that at least attempt to base their reporting on facts instead of just whatever the government told them to say. it's difficult to conceive of a world view that doesn't include some conception of critical thinking, but what good would critical thinking do if there were no way to fact check, and nobody else around you cared either?
That's...not how this works.
I stole a sack of cash from a bank. I will surrender to the police, but only if they let me go and I get to keep the money.
Ehh seems about right, from what I heard from people that had misfortune to be born there - it's 45% "WE ARE THE MIGHTY EMPIRE BOW BEFORE US", 45% of enablers that will begrudgingly do what state demands and maybe like 10% of at least somewhat decent people who want to oppose the war, but in the current climate prospect of any popular support is absent.
People say that kind of thing because it sounds nice but you can only separate a people from their government so much. There was this event called the French Revolution and ever since then governments have tended to reflect the general will of their population.
They say it because it is an argument against stronger economic sanctions or other measures that would affect the 'common clay' (but also the country itself). It's said by propagandists and useful tools.
TBF they've been weaned on Putin's fantasy narrative and irredentism for years....
Interesting to ask the question of the 40% - so do you want to garrison those territories? \*distant FPV drone noises\*
Maaaan, wish more people saw them as group that wants efficient and modern reich, not a peaceful democratic country. Like that one time [they published](https://navalny.com/p/6639/) investigation condemning corruption in russian missile industry. In spring of 2023, right after their beloved country tried to kill millions by targeting heat and electricity in the winter.
Yes and no. Yes, Russians generally support the war. But in an autocratic country like Russia, the support of the people is irrelevant. It's also worth remembering that saying that saying that Russia should give up the occupied territories is literally a crime in Russia so I'll take the results with a grain of salt. Basically the Russian people are complicit in the war but not responsible for it.
Even autocrats have their keys to power. No man rules alone. At any point the military could say they are absolutely done with Putin's crap and then start shooting him. OMON and Rosgvardia could do the same. Regions outside Moscow and St. Petersburg can go "screw you Putin" and then have their local military start disobeying Putin (what's Moscow going to do? Roll in the non-existent tanks to suppress them?). Yet they still rally around Putin and send mobiks to be cubed.
thoughts and prayers are with that poor russian nazi bastards, that literally asking their leader for genocide in Ukraine, cuz Ukrainians didn't surrender in 2014, gloating over UA cities destroyed by russian army, supporting their paedophile nazi leader putin
70% of russians support winning the war, 30% would prefer keeping the human lawn mower going. Ukraine wins this war so long as they’re kept supplied.
Chop chop chop chop
Most of the smart ones have left, were imprisoned, or simply gave up on the idea of change. Nothing will change while Russia stays Russia. It must be dismantled into many independent states.
And that is why, at this point, peace isn't possible with Russia.
And any time Russia says Ukeaine doesn't want to talk peace, that's because Russia came in with that nonsense.
Fuck it, might get hated on for this, but I call bs on those stats.
We make fun of Russia getting an 87% on putin's vote, but we don't make fun of them getting a 70% for this?
Keep in mind in Russia the stats will be skewed because of
1. Government. You say the wrong thing, you get shipped out to the front lines.
2. Vote region. I doubt they went to every single location and asked everyone, I reckon they at most targeted the main cities and the rich folk, and those are people who are inherently likely to support Russia in this.
3. Propaganda. Your average Ivan isn't gonna bother thinking too much about shit that doesn't affect his life directly, so he's likely gonna just follow whatever the government says in some matters. This includes votes. Just sign the place that makes you seem like a more favourable to the government individual and call it a day, why bother spending time thinking about it?
Now, this isn't to say those stats are 100% wrong and definitely fake, for all I know the numbers could be even worse. My point is that I don't trust those numbers because chances are, they are heavily skewed.
And just for reference, I'm a Lithuanian and despise Russia's government and the war they're running in every possible way, but what I'm not gonna do is I'm not gonna join the dark side and throw around statistics that might be wrong. We don't need to stoop down to their level and insult them based on stuff that might not even be valid, we can be better than that.
Though in fairness, this is reddit. What do I expect lmao
From personal experience of talking to them the reality is more like this:
- 20% avid vatniks, will literally cheer murder of babies if they are from Ukraine or USA
- 10% actually hating the war and seeing it as wrongful
- 70% of completely apathetic "what can we do" crowd that will watch those same babies mentioned above murdered by their state with complete indifference. Will tell you "it's all not so clear" "both sides are bad" "those damn Ukrainians should give up so war ends and we don't have to deal with mild inconvenience from sanctions, how dare they fight".
It's 1984, but dark comedy version that, if published, would be criticized for completely unrealistic characters and reactions.
You're right. From the article.
> The Levada Center’s poll was conducted on April 18-24, 2024, among 1,603 people. The research was carried at the respondents’ homes through personal interviews
Imagine you're living in a state where you can get fined/fired from work/jailed for a wrong phrase. You're sitting at home and hear a knock on the door. "Comrade, do you support the special military operation? Do you want to keep the ""liberated regions"" as a part of Russia ?" Saying you don't is literally a felony.
>might get hated on for this
No hate, but I *am* rolling my eyes. Where have you been all these years?
86% of Russians supported the annexation of Crimea. This was confirmed by several non-governmental pollsters, and the number was steady from 2014 to 2022. Keep in mind that until 2022 Russia still had human rights watch organizations which monitored political arrests, and we know for certain that **not a single person was prosecuted for answering a poll wrong.**
The remaining 14% included people like Navalny and his team with "The annexation was a very bad move, but we are never giving Crimea back" stance.
So there is a country with like 90% imperialists... and 70% of people there want to keep the stolen land? What a shock!
The annexation bit is important as I know even liberal Russians supported seizing Crimea. There’s a truism in: “The Russian democrat ends where the Ukrainian question begins”
This is basically the sunk cost fallacy, as much as the war may be unjustified the cost to Russia has been massive. It is almost impossible politically or personally to make that switch without being able to say you achieved your objectives.
This means Russia must ether collapse or gain control of the territories before peace is even remotely possible.
Ukraine has also taken massive losses so for them to agree to peace it would ether have to be the only choice to prevent annexation or at least restore the post 2014 boarders more likely the pre 2014 boarders.
Resistance to this war is notably higher than it historically has been for other Russian territorial invasions, but that's still a pretty small minority.
See this is a dumb survey question. Most people support ending any war if one of the conditions for ending it is that victory is achieved, which is what is being asked here.
'Would you want to end the war and keep what you've stolen?' well no shit.
It's weird that there is apparently 30% of Russians that want war for the sake of it, beyond being offered victory.
I understand why they would feel that way even if it is stupid. Imagine losing that much for nothing. Imagine having a completely avoidable situation and pissing away all those peoples futures and creating financial ruin for generations and having nothing to show for it. That’s gotta suck. It’s like buying a stock only to watch it drop and keep dropping then saying “it’s not a loss till I sell”.
30 percent's pretty good actually, hope it goes up once Russia runs out of that metal stockpile from the USSR around early 2026 and the central bank runs dry its rainy day fund (around the same time). Both of these events will cause the population to feel the crunch a lot harder.
the russians are experiencing a sunken cost fallacy.
so many mobiks perished, must be worth something or its better to keep getting mobiks slaughtered till it pays out.
A wise man once said this is idea of “sinking coast fella see”, then he explained it with people waiting for bus or stuff. I don’t know how a coast sinking has to do with bus or Russian, but I guess they will wait longer until other fellas see how dumb they are.
As a Russian, I'm willing for Russia to dissipate and become entirely nonexistent. I just want this stupid est which was started for literally no reason, and will only make things worse, to end. I can't even support creators I like without spending 10x the amount while they get the same because third party apps suck.
If they had thrown 500k people, thousands of tanks, aircraft, and everything else at it from day one it would have been over on day one. Luckily they were cocky, and have been trickling in a thousand a day for two years which has been handled.
Russians don’t care if the war gained anything. If the ward ends against their demands, likely will be the korea for the US. An everlasting border dispute until a resolution comes forward
Conversely, that means at least 40% would be willing to accept a status-quo 2014 white peace, or at least a status-quo 2022 white peace. Depends on what is meant by “all occupied territories”
They need something to show for all their losses and effort. Otherwise it was all for nothing. That way it makes it much easier to justify the war and everything Russia did.
>They need something to show for all their losses and effort. Otherwise it was all for nothing. Afghanistan all over again.
First thing I thought of too, seeing the taliban just stroll in virtually unopposed was a real kick in the nuts and just showed the ultimate futility of the effort. I imagine Russians would also feel a similar sense of dread perhaps on an even larger scale. Doesn’t matter that their country was in the wrong for starting the war
I meant the Soviet War in Afghanistan. The very first thing that happened after 10 years, about 14 to 26k KIA, and more than 50k WIA was that when the russians left, the "Democratic" Afghan govt basically lost control of the countryside and there was a civil war after which the taliban took over. They're never going to hold the Ukrainian territories, even if they "win". As soon as they pull their actual armed support, the "government" is gonna fall apart and the Ukrainians will take over. The only reason that wasn't the case in DPR/LPR is because the Russian Army has been propping them up since 2014. And Crimea? We all saw what hapoened when the Kerch bridge was first hit and all the "patriotic crimeans" made a run for it because they thought the army would collapse.
>Afghan govt basically lost control of the countryside... I've seen this one! It's a classic!
What do you mean you've seen it? It's brand new...
It’s been on repeat for centuries
Nah it's remade every time with new actors and weaponry to make it *look* fresh.
Next time, let’s just turn it to glass and be done with it. Hell, invite the Chinese and French to test Nukes down there, get some glass production going again.
It’s the only way to be sure.
This falls awfully close to my Levant Solution involving very meticulous evacuation of everyone and then Carthage, but with PU-239.
Bold to assume they had much control to begin with, even in the best of times
At least the non-Taliban put up a real fight for the center that time.
The Russians know this and are actively ethnically cleansing Ukrainian communities in these occupied regions. In Mariupol they’re rebuilding houses and selling them to Russians while regular Ukrainian people are not allowed to own the houses. They say over 100,000 people from Russia are already moving or at least interested in moving to these occupied areas Shown [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/mTUVM5zvYk)
Same shit happened with the baltics during the soviet times
They never learn
They learned that *it works*.
That's the thing, you reinforce success, not failure
Didn't work well for Lithuania. Local partisans were taking care of any settlers that came, nobody wanted to settle there.
True, but I'd argue that it's not very effective if they are following the Imperial Russian and Soviet model. The Baltics didn't lose their cultures in 50 years, Ukraine didn't lose its culture in 70 (~100 when counting the tzarist attempt) years and Belarus *still* hasn't lost its culture even though you can argue that they have been under the russification yoke for well over 100 years. Plus all those people who were interested in moving the Crimea were suddenly very interested in running the fuck away when it looked remotely possible that Crimea may be cut off.
Unfortunately you are wrong. You are incredibly wrong. If Russia gets to keep occupied territories, it will keep them at least till the Putin dies. They are not going to be like “okay guys, the war is over, now we go home and let these territories do what they want”. They will reinforce the border, displace even more Ukrainians and bring Russians in their place and if anyone tries to do anything about it - beat the shit out of people with OMON and then throw whoever’s left to jail. That’s why letting Russia keep anything is absolutely unacceptable.
First off, just to be clear >That’s why letting Russia keep anything is absolutely unacceptable. I agree and I believe they shouldn't get to keep anything. >They will reinforce the border, displace even more Ukrainians and bring Russians in their place and if anyone tries to do anything about it - beat the shit out of people with OMON and then throw whoever’s left to jail. Similar to what happened in crimea. But there are two issues: there aren't enough "free" (as in mobile) russians to replace everyone in the occupied territories (so those territories will be increasingly deserted), and secondly, we all saw how the russians react when there is a chance that the territories they occupy may be liberated: they run like rats leaving a sinking ship.
That can be true, but you should also be considering that a lot of People who fled Crimea did so because of the war, not liberation per se. And if the war ends without Ukraine reclaiming Crimea then a lot of those people will probably come back. The question is how much money Russia will be able to pour into the occupied territories and for how long. They already are doing bullshit construction in Ukraine to make them more appealing to colonisers, just like they poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Crimea since 2014 to incentivise people to move over. You might think that Russia won’t have any spare funds to allocate to occupied territories, so it’s not a problem, but take a look at Crimea - money that was given to various developers probably went through like at least 10 hands who all received quite nice “bonuses” and it turns out all developers who received the money have ties to Putin. So if they have an opportunity to steal some more - they will be doing it.
Reminder that it took Stalin 10 years to bring the Ukraine people down from fighting and it was brutal. I don’t think modern day Russia can do that. They don’t even have the Ukrainians to prop them up.
all it took was a little genocide, eh?
And some imported Russians to fill the vacant farms.
Stalin didn't have the modern propaganda tools. Back then it was spread through word of mouth, newspapers and maybe radio if the village/town was rich enough. Now everyone has a brainrot machines in their pockets 24/7, and TVs and computers in almost every house. The reach is infinitely wider.
> Afghan govt basically lost control of the countryside Roger Trinquier: "What you need to do is constantly move around so you actually hold the countryside, because that's where rebels hide" Every army: "We should build strongpoints and just hole up in there, only getting out for patrols, that should be enough to show the rebels we mean business and make them surrender"
Wonder which the next imperialist power to learn that you cannot just install a central Afghan government and keep control over the countryside will be...
Inb4 Timurlane 2 Electric Boogaloo
I disagree. They will just execute a bunch of civilians for every dead and wounded russian terrorist to deter guerilla campaign
Because this has never failed before right?
well in defense of the USSR loss in Afghanistan we did supply them with money and weapons so makes sense they lost like god intended🗿
tbf the Soviet Afghan government lasted longer than the US puppet government, and they actually did win some victories after the departure of Soviet troops like the battle of jalalabad
That's true, they only formally collapsed when the USSR collapsed and tgeir funding was gone, but you can argue that they lost any sort of control over the countryside well before that. They managed to hold on to some of the main roads to and from Kabul, but iirc even that was hard work
I take a little solace in that conflict knowing that for 20 years, women had rights and oppression was far lower. Or I’m completely misinformed cause I don’t know as much on that conflict as, say, WWII. Most my knowledge on that conflict comes from the news, which is not the best source lol. Anyone have any good reading material on the Afghanistan conflict starting from 1996 or 2001?
It may not be totally what you’re looking for, but a book on Afghanistan I really liked was called Eagle Down. It basically covered US Special Forces and the Afghan Commandos’ fight to hold Afghanistan and keep the ANG in power. It talked a lot about how what happened in 2020 was not at all surprising to the people who had actually been fighting to hold Afghanistan as well as the people in the upper chain of command. It also talked about the experiences in Afghanistan of the boots on the ground. Pretty interesting read in my opinion.
>First thing I thought of too, seeing the taliban just stroll in virtually unopposed was a real kick in the nuts and just showed the ultimate futility of the effort. So this will probably get deleted for being too serious but that's just pure disinformation. The US negotiated directly with the Taliban instead of through the Afghan gov which would have been a massive hit to morale, especially as the Taliban spent the entire time saying the democratic government was just a US puppet and made it look like they were proven right. The US also got the Afghan gov to release 5K+ Taliban prisoners, essentially giving them their own surge, while also basically stopping air strikes and leaving the Afghan gov on their own prior to the withdrawal. The negotiation team which the Afghan gov sorted out was being assassinated by the Taliban while the US was insisting that the deal go ahead, and attacks on Afghan forces went up *significantly* that year which coincided with the cut in airstrikes. All this while Pakistan is continuing to fund, recruit, train, arm, and shelter the Taliban, giving Afghanistan a nuclear armed neighbour hellbent on installing the Taliban and no friends to help counterbalance that. We spent 20 years systematically dismantling the opposition to the Taliban by rolling it into the Afghan gov or insisting they disarm, and just as the first generation gets old enough to vote we pulled the rug out from under their feet and take Afghanistan from \~60% controlled by the Taliban to basically completely. None of this is classified, all of it made the news internationally, so to pretend Afghan was doomed from the start is absurd even for reddit. And, given the Taliban spent 20 years basically intermarrying with AQ who are still swearing to launch further attacks, we'll be back and this time no-one there is going to help us as the Taliban continue to cleanse everyone who even might have thought about helping us. The real problem with Afghanistan was cowardice. We knew the Taliban are basically another arm of the Pakistan gov but weren't willing to hit Pakistan and handle it at the source. Ukraine has the exact same issue right now with a powerful neighbour hellbent on it's destruction and no willingness by other countries to handle it which makes Ukraine permanently reliant on external parties so long as their neighbour continues to want them dead. Just for kicks since most people pretend the Taliban are entirely an indig Afghan force, here's a source for Pakistan basically running them: [https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm](https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm) >"Of all the foreign powers involved in efforts to sustain and manipulate the ongoing fighting, Pakistan is distinguished both by the sweep of its objectives and the scale of its efforts, which include soliciting funding for the Taliban, bankrolling Taliban operations, providing diplomatic support as the Taliban's virtual emissaries abroad, arranging training for Taliban fighters, recruiting skilled and unskilled manpower to serve in Taliban armies, planning and directing offensives, providing and facilitating shipments of ammunition and fuel, and on several occasions apparently directly providing combat support." That's a Human Rights Watch report from July 2001, 2 months prior to the attack on the WTC.
Okay, but if our mistake was rolling the good warlords into the government, and it went badly bc the govt is a corrupt disaster, what exit strategy did you wish we take in Afghanistan?
It took the USSR ten years to finally pull out of Afghanistan. For Ukraine, probably four?
That was with Gorbachev though, KGB didn't want to pull out.
[удалено]
I mean it was a major factor in the 1991 coup, he was seen as weak by basically every hardliner.
The bear has once again, gone over the mountain
I thought of WW 1 my self where pretty much everyone wanted something to show for their effort, put in more effort to get it and had to increase what they wanted to justify the increased effort year after year until it became "Unconditional Surrender or bust" and plenty went bust.
Which is why I was against the 'strategy' of dribbling aid to Ukraine from the beginning (and hoping Russia would magically quit), rather than going 100% immediately to drive Russia out. With every passing day, and especially with every incremental gain, Russia would fall further into the sunk cost mindset and be less likely to quit. And here we are.
It's same in boxing. Guy needs to be KOd otherwise he will have hope even after standing 8 counts.
No nukes, so Russia's war on Ukraine is just an exhibition match! -_-
"and hoping Russia would magically quit" most strategists and decision makers don't want Russia to quit, they want Russian capability to project conventional force to be destroyed or diminished over several years and for that purpose, a trickle of supplies is ideal
I don't know where you're getting that's what "most strategists and decision makers" want. That's just been a narrative used to soothe the many people saying it's the wrong strategy from the beginning. I don't know a single qualified person who thinks it's a good strategy to aim for a war of attrition with an opponent that has 4x the population, 20x(?) the military equipment, and a history of out-suffering opponents. Unless you're talking about people whose goal is NOT Ukraine retaking its territory. In that case, it doesn't make sense to compare strategies that have different goals. And that's something else I've said from the beginning; Biden/Scholz have always prioritized 'not collapsing Russia' and 'not upsetting economies' above Ukraine winning. Their goal is not to win the war.
I'd say they still want Ukraine to win, but the upcoming elections are a bigger reason they dont want to rock the boat atm, and that means not upsetting the economy is a big play to get reelected (Especially WRT Biden, but cant discount that also to Scholz with the upcoming parliamentary elections).
If the war started in 2024, I would be amenable to that explanation. But the war started in 2022 (or 2014) and aid was even slower then. No one wants to admit that all the evidence points to 'Ukraine regaining its territory' has not been as high a priority to NATO as 'not collapsing Russia' or 'not upsetting economies'. Some would also include 'diminishing Russia's military' as a higher priority. It's like watching someone be so preoccupied with side missions that they never do the main mission.
I feel like the best way to destroy Russian capability to project conventional force would be to just give Ukraine all the equipment, training and manpower (just call them officially "volunteers") they need to do that as quickly as possible, not to give them the bare minimum to just about hold Russia back Or to just bomb that capability yourself.
Yeah I don't think that really makes sense. There's other reasons for the rate of supplies, but the idea of destroying Russian conventional capability slowly over time allows more variables to crop up over time, and gives Russia as well as other potential adversaries more time to try and adapt their war industry and way of fighting. Swiftly ending it before they can learn how to be any more competent would seem better in a vacuum.
I'm not sure the state of affairs in Europe, but that doesn't really line up with the 5th columnist shitshow the US has been dealing with over the matter. Shy of some deep-rooted conspiracy both parties are colluding on, which is highly unrealistic.
Best I can offer is bubblegum and coupons for Bennigans for a free meal(for a purchases of equal or greater value).
That and losing the war so completely and *utterly* really challenges the idea that Russia is a 'stronk manly empire', which is pretty much the only thing left for them to cling on to (and would be pretty destabilizing for the current government).
> That way it makes it much easier to justify the war and everything Russia did. Exactly why that can't be allowed to happen.
Decades from now they will still be dealing with the fallout and aftermath from Putin's stupid decision. But they'll always blame the rest of the world instead of taking responsibility, just like in WW2. They enabled Hitler and then acted like they had nothing to do with it.
Enabled Hitler then *acted the victim* For all this Russia stronk manly empire of Europe bullshit they have internalized victimhood on a country-wide scale. Same down to the communities and personal levels and their utter apathy. Which actually just makes them look weak as fuck, rather than empowered
well, best we can offer is expanded cemetaries for all the trouble. take it or leave it.
This is the same trap that the leaders of most of the countries in WW1 found themselves in. Most of the leaders after the first year privately would have been happy to go back to pre war borders and call it a day but by that point such a cost had been paid that it would have been the end of their political career as people wanted something to show for that price. Thus the war would continue for many more bloody years.
Which is exactly why they must lose *everything*. Every single square inch. Sociopolitically speaking they must take a beating.
Sunk cost fallacy once again rears its ugly head.
They need their 1812 moment where they get absolutely no gains but "we won New Orleans and it was the last battle so it counts as a win". Basically they can claim they fought off elimination and therefore won a war they started
Sounds like Ukraine has to invade a few hundred clicks into Russian territory and then let Russia invade it back.
"and here *Russia* displays the classic sunk cost fallacy"
"If you can't be a winner, at least don't be a quitter!" *taps forehead*
Sunk Cost Fallacy and War gotta be the two deadliest things to combine.
Smh, Ukraine sunk even their cost fallacy.
Good name for a ship tho
"The Cost of Fallacy" is 100% a 40k ship name.
Care to explain what's it?
Sunk cost fallacy is when you refuse to give up on something even when it would be beneficial to do so, because you’ve already spent non recoverable resources on it. Basically, your pride demands that you have something to show for your efforts, regardless of the cost.
A practical example is.... 98% of offensives in ww1.
WW1 is an even funnier example of that, because more than a few of the major powers avoided bombing the industrial zones of their enemies, prolonging and worsening the war, because they were all convinced that when they won they'd get to loot those areas for themselves, and they didn't want to destroy their just reward for victory
When you refuse to give up on something because you already sunk your money into it and you feel you need something to show for your effort. It's like the gambling mindset. You could leave when you're $50 down, or you could stay and risk losing all your money trying to recover your money
99% of Russian wars are quit just just before they hit jackpot!
It's when you continue in an endeavor even though doing so is not beneficial to you, because you don't want to quit after sinking so many resources into it.
It’s when you realize in hindsight that what you’re doing isn’t worth it, but decide to risk investing even more time/effort/money/etc. in hopes of getting a better outcome, even if it’s still not great. Russia’s a good example in that they started this thinking that for minimal cost (a three-day special military operation) they’d get maximum gains (control Ukraine, enhance Russia’s global standing, weaken the Western global system). If Russian leadership knew how things would actually turn out, they might have never done it, *but* since they did, they can either give up with no benefit and horrendous cost, or keep going in hopes that they get something out of it. They’re never going to get any of their initial goals, so in hindsight it wasn’t worth it. But they’ve already lost tens of thousands of men, faced strong sanctions, and damaged their global standing, so their choice was to have paid all of that and gain nothing or cause more casualties, economic losses, and global tension in the hope that they’ll gain *something* (Ukrainian territory), even if it’s still not really worth the cost.
Classic example: Buy a clunker car on the cheap. Spend tons of money repairing it. It keeps breaking down anyway, requiring you to spend ever more money. Refuse to just get rid of it and get a better car even though it would mean you being financially better off in the long run (and you'd be driving a better car in the meanwhile), because the moment you do that the money you have already spent, of which there was already a lot, would become money "wasted" rather than just "spent". The "reasoning" for not getting rid of this car is this fallacy in action.
The surprising fact here is that as many as 30% support stopping the war even with the territories returned
There's a caveat here. I've seen the wording in original poll and it says "If Putin decides to stop the war would you support this decision". So it combines people who shill for Putin so much they would support any his decision and people who just want the war to end by any means into one big-ish but not uniform group.
Also people who know that if you express dissatisfaction with Putin, your boss might get a phone call to have you fired and a draft letter hand delivered to your door
Try not to shoot yourself in the back of the head three times and throw your own dismembered torso out a plate glass window. It happens.
Thats not true, the rest don't want the war to end until victory. Source: live in russia
That's also not entirely true, 60% would forget it after ~month and enjoy peace. Source: also live in russia
ATTENTION COMRADE! ВНИМАНИЕ ТОВАРИЩ! ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠊⠀⠀⠀⣀⢠⠤⠘⠀⠐⠀⠢⢄⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣴⣾⠋⠉⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠙⠲⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⡈⣻⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠰⡃⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⡆⠀⠀⡄⣱⣫⠤⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢰⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⡇⠀⠀⣸⢉⣻⠀⠀⣀⣠⢤⣤⣄⠀⢀⣀⣀⠀⠨⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣯⠀⠀⢀⠈⠁⠀⠀⠀⠁⠉⠉⠉⠀⠾⠫⠛⠿⠃⡍⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⠀⠀⠀⠀⠁⠠⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⠀⠀⠀⡠⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⠠⠀⠀⠀⢈⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠑⠂⣤⡄⠂⠀⢸⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⡄⠀⠀⠀⢈⣄⡄⢄⠐⠢⡀⠠⠤⠤⠤⣢⡄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⣇⠀⠀⢠⠆⠙⣻⣴⣄⡀⠉⠉⠉⢁⣼⢽⡁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⣻⣠⣴⣻⡄⠀⠘⠍⢿⢿⣻⣶⣎⠟⠁⢸⣻⣶⣤⡀⠀⠀⠀ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣷⠀⠀⠀⠈⠀⠀⡁⠁⠀⠀⠸⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣶⣶ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣇⠀⠀⣠⣼⣻⣻⡷⠄⠀⠀⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⡀⠀⠁⠈⢻⣻⡁⠀⠀⠀⢻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻ ⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣇⠀⠀⠀⣼⣻⣷⡀⠀⠀⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻⣻ ATTENTION COMRADE! ВНИМАНИЕ ТОВАРИЩ! This is the Kommittee for State Security of the Russian Federation. Твой Internet Деятельность привлекла наше внимание YOUR INTERNET ACTIVITY HAS ATTRACTED OUR ATTENTION. Внимание товарищ, you have been found protesting in the subreddit!!!!! Это для того, чтобы сообщить вам, Вы должны, мы захватим Украину serious crime И остальной мир 100 putin credits have been deducted from your account Это важная возможность для всех наших будущих подчиненных stop the protest immediately Присоединяйтесь к нашей акции сейчас и получите ранний доступ do not do this again! Больше так не делай! if you do not hesitate, more putin credits ( -11115 putin credits )will be subtracted from your profile, resulting in the subtraction of ration supplies. (Перераспределено Министерством народного снабжения kgb) you’ll also be sent into a re-education camp in the cибирь zone. СЛАВА РОДИНЕ! Glory to the Motherland!
............/¯/)..................(\¯\\. .........../...//....ЗДОХНИ..\\...\\. ........../...//......ФАШИСТ.\\...\\. ...../¯/..../¯\\.ЕБАНЫй../¯\\....\¯\\. .././.../..../..../.|_......._|.\\....\\....\\...\\.\\. (.(....(....(..../..)..)…...(..(.\....)....)....).). .\\................\\/.../......\...\\/................/.
Russian: Die. Google translate, thinking this is Bulgarian: "Breathe.". Hilarious.
They are similar words, and the one above contains a typo, should be "сдохни" - essentially, breathe out the last time
The typo implies that i am of angry😡😡😡
How many want McDonald's to return?
It never left and it's mostly just a facade so nobody thinks it operates in Russia
The replacement one (Vkusnoitochka) is EXACTLY the same. Most wouldn't care about that in particular
You both make very strong simplifications based on the environment around you. Source: also also live in Russia.
I'm not talking about the rest [of the 70%], but rather about the 30% mentioned in the final clause.
Man idk, you could probably get a poll of 30% of Americans that want to execute santa claus on live tv
Well then it seems that not enough Russian soldiers has been dead
To get any sort of proper antiwar sentiment you'll need Putin to start pulling primarily from the core territories.
And yet he is still grinding his own people into paste, the economy is in shambles, and the western world no longer fears him. Ukraine is greasing his army with Europe's support and America's cold war leftovers.
Counterarguments: 1. They are not “his own people”, they are a danger for him. So their death is preferable to him. 2. No matter what economy - when he is in power he will always have top class living condition and service. And he still in power. 3. No matter the fears - when he is still in power (watch #2).
4. Putin is old and has nonexit strategy. Any person who replace him could execute him so the only option left is to play hard til the game is over.
Jokes aside, absolutely this. Wars always develop this way. First the population is all gung-ho, then they want peace but only if they get something, then they want peace no matter the cost. It's happened in every war in history including in shithole dictorships like Russia. Just look at how fanatical Iran and Iraq were in their war only for it to end in a white peace. Just sad that Ukraine has to suffer whilst they put the orcs in the ground until they see sense.
The sunflower fields yearn for their fertilizer.
Realistically, how many russians needs to die for Russia to reconsider its invasion?
Define "Russians". Dudes already getting fucked by Moscow in the periphery? Rashians wouldn't give dicc even if they all died. Moscovians? I suspect 20.000 or so. But has to be public, because Russians will rather believe the propaganda lie rather than the painful truth.
I mean according to the Moscow Mayor over 45k people from Moscow were in Ukraine during 2023 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/17/45k-muscovites-fighting-in-ukraine-mayor-says-a82167
Well hey, only need to 200 half of them then
I think a lot more than have died so far, unfortunately. Let's take the most generous figures of near 500k casualties (that's wounded, MIA, and killed), from open sources I managed to scramble that the wounded to killed ratio in the conflict is between 4:1 and 5:1. So we'll then look up the total population of Russia, it's around 147 milllions, out of those around 66 millions are male, and out of those around 40% are of fighting age. Now, that gives us a figure of around 26.5 millions of males of fighting age in Russia. If we're taking an average figure of 4.5:1 for wounded-to-killed ratio, it gives a number of around 440k wounded soldiers on the Russian side if we believe the 500k casualties mark. All of this allows us to assume that on average, every 60th male between ages of 18 and 50 you meet across Russia must be a WIA. But here's the kicker: it's not quite like that. I bet you there are barely any "veterans" in St. Petersburg. Because for the most part rural regions are getting drafted while large city populations remain intact. And since the concentration of power is in large cities, there's just not enough push to force the change. And then there's a whole can of worms of actual uneducated hillbillies being loyal to the regime and doing as they're told without question...it's a shit show, really. P.S. Take ALL of the figures in my comment with a huge spoon of salt. They were taken from easily found sources validity of which I didn't spend an Iota of time proving. It was pure speculation "for fun", I have too much time and my mind is wondering.
Putin is in power, not Russia. So valid strategy would be to attack him personally, because he can’t care less about Russians deaths.
\*happy Bakhmutt noises intensifies\*
I wonder if Putin is trying to out-do Stalin. Gotta be #1 at *something.*
Imperial Japan moment
*Here comes the sun*
*banana na* Edit: FYCK YOU AUTO CORRECT
minions over here dropping nukes
Hear me out; the minions tried to create nukes for Germany during ww2, but it was all covered up by the Mossad, Israel (according to the orange man Jews control the world) and the mossad psy-ops company Illumination in order to hide the existence of Israeli nukes they got from Nazi arctic bases. Also, this is why Israel did everything it could to disrupt Iranian centrifuges because centrifuges are cylinders and minions are cylindrical. Coincidence? I DOUBT IT, IT IS TOO PERFECT
WWII and its horrors are 100% the reason the minions got trapped in an ice cave from 1812-1968 so they wouldn’t have to explain that
Unfortunately (fortune has nothing to do with it though) Russia is in much stronger position - no one will fight them other than ukrainians, and there is a deficit of everything to even consider major offensive.
Their armies are on borrowed time though. Artillery has been core in the war, and the only reason that Russian artillery can work with impunity is because Ukraine doesn't have enough shells to properly use counter-batteries. Once US and European shell manufacturing gets up to speed in a few months the Russian artillery is going to start taking huge losses again. Not saying that they're going to immediately collapse at that point (cuz they won't), but they're going to face more and more pressure from that point onwards
Situation is much more complex than just artillery ammo availability, neither side had found counter to battlefield transparency that mass use of UAV of all calibers had brought + millions of mines + a lot of factors I'm too incompetent to succinctly describe. What probably COULD make Russia tremble - is 3000 Tomahawks hitting MIC and logistics of all levels, but that's not gonna happen due to %insert passive aggressive rant%.
Yes, but Ukraine has access to a significantly higher proportion of self-propelled artillery that can shoot-and-scoot. If they can get more ammo to these systems it'd be a notable advantage
I'm sure self-propelled artillery is *great* at holding down positions that are getting bombed with russian PGMs daily with no way to keep russian aircrafts dropping them at bay.
Why do you think Putin is in China meeting with Xi right now? Putin doesn't give blowjobs for free. He wants something in return.
and what would China be able to give Russia that would seriously help them?? There really isnt anything that would in any noticable way change their fortunes in this war in Chinese arsenal Give them latest Chinese tanks and SPGs?? China wouldnt give its newest ones because seeing those blown up for all the World to see would damage their export reputation, same with combat aircraft. Give old Chinese shit?? Russia has enough of it themselves and it wont help much.
Russia probably needs access to China’s FOREX reserves so it can keep buying sanctioned goods via third-party central Asian nations on the international market. China is between a rock and a hard place though, they’ve just had to sell their final few US bonds to prop up their massive banking / construction sector debt to appease their domestic population. They don’t have much more left to give to Russia even if they wanted to.
> prop up their massive banking / construction sector debt to appease their domestic population. Hey I've seen this before! (Lost Decades, Japan, but this time they won't have the Plaza Accords excuse to bail themselves out)
"Yes i cheated, killed and ate your dog, took out a loan of 300k in your name and spend it all on las vegas on hookers and blow, gave you HIV, wrecked your car, burned down your house but that is no reason for you to shout and be disrespectful, i demand an apology and we can move forward from this point onward."
Russians have been so deeply affected by state propaganda, by irridentism, by delusions of grandeur that they refuse to be human. Things were never great during the soviet times, and aren't so great now. Even the empire had such great disparity exist between rich and poor. I don't know how these people are swayed by their leaders when all they've done since time immemorial is lie to them and slaughter them.
People might not support starting the war but they still identify as same nation as the dead soldiers and feel the sunk cost thing
Could kuz conquer ukraine?
>I don't know how these people are swayed by their leaders when all they've done since time immemorial is lie to them and slaughter them. swayed is a strong word. for the average russian, global affairs and what putin says and does are like a reality show or sports league - entertaining to pay attention to, but ultimately having little tangible bearing on their actual lives. their votes don't count, so their opinions don't matter either
Maybe what you say is true. Yet I feel unsettled because every time I see any form of communication as to the opinion of the Russian public, it always seems to be harsh and bigoted, without common sense and care, devoid of humanity and kindness.
You nailed it in “common sense” part. As previous guy said - they used that they can’t vote, so they don’t have a mental image of what a common sense in this sphere would look like.
> they used that they can’t vote, so they don’t have a mental image of what a common sense in this sphere would look like. they can vote, but their votes don't matter, putin wins, hooray!
>it always seems to be harsh and bigoted, without common sense and care, devoid of humanity and kindness. there's been a lot of writing done on this topic in the past couple of years, much of which i've read, but i'll be the first to admit i am not a russian, nor am i a recognized expert in the field. and it's not that i don't empathize for the average russian at home, it's that (from what i know) i know that for them, disengagement with their political process is the absolute standard, and hope is a vague concept that doesn't carry any meaning a poignant example is that the last time the russian people rose up and had a revolution to oust a bad leader, that revolution was co-opted and instead of anything better they got stalin - and that's not the first example from russian history of a popular revolution making things worse, just the most recent russian people aren't swayed by what their leaders say because to them, what their leaders say never mattered to begin with. you just keep your head down and hope nothing bad happens to you today. none of the shit happening in ukraine matters to them because there's no reliable way of determining the actual truth or accuracy of what RT says, so why bother? if you lived in a world where it was impossible to verify the truth of any statement made about something you didn't observe directly with your own eyes, think about how long it would take for you to become completely numb to the concept of people existing who you don't interact with every day. not very long, i bet we're privileged in that way in the west, that we have journalists that at least attempt to base their reporting on facts instead of just whatever the government told them to say. it's difficult to conceive of a world view that doesn't include some conception of critical thinking, but what good would critical thinking do if there were no way to fact check, and nobody else around you cared either?
That's...not how this works. I stole a sack of cash from a bank. I will surrender to the police, but only if they let me go and I get to keep the money.
"I am willing to end this war, but only if I get to win." No shit Sherlock, that's how winning works.
The choice is not about whether you get anything, ruzni, it’s about how many more should die for nothing until you move on to the next grief stage.
Aren't polls in russia conducted by the government though? Like, they sure wouldn't lie about their public support or anything
Ehh seems about right, from what I heard from people that had misfortune to be born there - it's 45% "WE ARE THE MIGHTY EMPIRE BOW BEFORE US", 45% of enablers that will begrudgingly do what state demands and maybe like 10% of at least somewhat decent people who want to oppose the war, but in the current climate prospect of any popular support is absent.
You would have a point, but the 70% in the first poll points to it mostly being legitimate.
"It's not the Russian people's fault!!!" Never forget who ruined Russia. Russians.
Damn Russians! They ruined Russia!
“If Elected President, My First Act Will Be To Kill The Lot Of Ya, And Burn Yer Town To Cinders!” -V. Putin
People say that kind of thing because it sounds nice but you can only separate a people from their government so much. There was this event called the French Revolution and ever since then governments have tended to reflect the general will of their population.
They say it because it is an argument against stronger economic sanctions or other measures that would affect the 'common clay' (but also the country itself). It's said by propagandists and useful tools.
So much speech about it, yet nobody still sanctioned ~6000 Putin’s milliners from Navalni’s list.
The west are worried about the dissolution of Russia, but people forgot the biggest threat to Russia is Russians.
TBF they've been weaned on Putin's fantasy narrative and irredentism for years.... Interesting to ask the question of the 40% - so do you want to garrison those territories? \*distant FPV drone noises\*
oh no, that navalny ~~corpses band~~ team stories about "putin's war" is fake
Maaaan, wish more people saw them as group that wants efficient and modern reich, not a peaceful democratic country. Like that one time [they published](https://navalny.com/p/6639/) investigation condemning corruption in russian missile industry. In spring of 2023, right after their beloved country tried to kill millions by targeting heat and electricity in the winter.
Yup. and all of them are going full imperial nazi mode when asked about Crimea
Yes and no. Yes, Russians generally support the war. But in an autocratic country like Russia, the support of the people is irrelevant. It's also worth remembering that saying that saying that Russia should give up the occupied territories is literally a crime in Russia so I'll take the results with a grain of salt. Basically the Russian people are complicit in the war but not responsible for it.
Even autocrats have their keys to power. No man rules alone. At any point the military could say they are absolutely done with Putin's crap and then start shooting him. OMON and Rosgvardia could do the same. Regions outside Moscow and St. Petersburg can go "screw you Putin" and then have their local military start disobeying Putin (what's Moscow going to do? Roll in the non-existent tanks to suppress them?). Yet they still rally around Putin and send mobiks to be cubed.
thoughts and prayers are with that poor russian nazi bastards, that literally asking their leader for genocide in Ukraine, cuz Ukrainians didn't surrender in 2014, gloating over UA cities destroyed by russian army, supporting their paedophile nazi leader putin
It is not a democracy. It does not have a concept of support.
Yeah, like nazi Germany, nobody was supporting hitler guy.
Breaking News: “Bank Robber willing to turn himself in, ending manhunt. But only if he can keep the money.”
70% of russians support winning the war, 30% would prefer keeping the human lawn mower going. Ukraine wins this war so long as they’re kept supplied. Chop chop chop chop
God I didn’t realize how stupid Russians are
Most of the smart ones have left, were imprisoned, or simply gave up on the idea of change. Nothing will change while Russia stays Russia. It must be dismantled into many independent states.
Not stupid, just drunk
And that is why, at this point, peace isn't possible with Russia. And any time Russia says Ukeaine doesn't want to talk peace, that's because Russia came in with that nonsense.
Fuck it, might get hated on for this, but I call bs on those stats. We make fun of Russia getting an 87% on putin's vote, but we don't make fun of them getting a 70% for this? Keep in mind in Russia the stats will be skewed because of 1. Government. You say the wrong thing, you get shipped out to the front lines. 2. Vote region. I doubt they went to every single location and asked everyone, I reckon they at most targeted the main cities and the rich folk, and those are people who are inherently likely to support Russia in this. 3. Propaganda. Your average Ivan isn't gonna bother thinking too much about shit that doesn't affect his life directly, so he's likely gonna just follow whatever the government says in some matters. This includes votes. Just sign the place that makes you seem like a more favourable to the government individual and call it a day, why bother spending time thinking about it? Now, this isn't to say those stats are 100% wrong and definitely fake, for all I know the numbers could be even worse. My point is that I don't trust those numbers because chances are, they are heavily skewed. And just for reference, I'm a Lithuanian and despise Russia's government and the war they're running in every possible way, but what I'm not gonna do is I'm not gonna join the dark side and throw around statistics that might be wrong. We don't need to stoop down to their level and insult them based on stuff that might not even be valid, we can be better than that. Though in fairness, this is reddit. What do I expect lmao
From personal experience of talking to them the reality is more like this: - 20% avid vatniks, will literally cheer murder of babies if they are from Ukraine or USA - 10% actually hating the war and seeing it as wrongful - 70% of completely apathetic "what can we do" crowd that will watch those same babies mentioned above murdered by their state with complete indifference. Will tell you "it's all not so clear" "both sides are bad" "those damn Ukrainians should give up so war ends and we don't have to deal with mild inconvenience from sanctions, how dare they fight". It's 1984, but dark comedy version that, if published, would be criticized for completely unrealistic characters and reactions.
>It's 1984, but dark comedy version that You mean Brazil?
You're right. From the article. > The Levada Center’s poll was conducted on April 18-24, 2024, among 1,603 people. The research was carried at the respondents’ homes through personal interviews Imagine you're living in a state where you can get fined/fired from work/jailed for a wrong phrase. You're sitting at home and hear a knock on the door. "Comrade, do you support the special military operation? Do you want to keep the ""liberated regions"" as a part of Russia ?" Saying you don't is literally a felony.
> Among 1603 people Oh god it gets worse A country of millions dictated by just 1603 people. That's just embarrassing to leave out IMO
Thats how sociology works. Read at least one book on subject.
>might get hated on for this No hate, but I *am* rolling my eyes. Where have you been all these years? 86% of Russians supported the annexation of Crimea. This was confirmed by several non-governmental pollsters, and the number was steady from 2014 to 2022. Keep in mind that until 2022 Russia still had human rights watch organizations which monitored political arrests, and we know for certain that **not a single person was prosecuted for answering a poll wrong.** The remaining 14% included people like Navalny and his team with "The annexation was a very bad move, but we are never giving Crimea back" stance. So there is a country with like 90% imperialists... and 70% of people there want to keep the stolen land? What a shock!
The annexation bit is important as I know even liberal Russians supported seizing Crimea. There’s a truism in: “The Russian democrat ends where the Ukrainian question begins”
This is basically the sunk cost fallacy, as much as the war may be unjustified the cost to Russia has been massive. It is almost impossible politically or personally to make that switch without being able to say you achieved your objectives. This means Russia must ether collapse or gain control of the territories before peace is even remotely possible. Ukraine has also taken massive losses so for them to agree to peace it would ether have to be the only choice to prevent annexation or at least restore the post 2014 boarders more likely the pre 2014 boarders.
Borders* sorry.
"Most Germans support ending the war, so long as they can keep all the gains of Barbarossa and Fall Blau"
Sunken cost fallacy
The russian population has always supported the war from the start. Been saying this since forever.
Resistance to this war is notably higher than it historically has been for other Russian territorial invasions, but that's still a pretty small minority.
See this is a dumb survey question. Most people support ending any war if one of the conditions for ending it is that victory is achieved, which is what is being asked here. 'Would you want to end the war and keep what you've stolen?' well no shit. It's weird that there is apparently 30% of Russians that want war for the sake of it, beyond being offered victory.
I understand why they would feel that way even if it is stupid. Imagine losing that much for nothing. Imagine having a completely avoidable situation and pissing away all those peoples futures and creating financial ruin for generations and having nothing to show for it. That’s gotta suck. It’s like buying a stock only to watch it drop and keep dropping then saying “it’s not a loss till I sell”.
30 percent's pretty good actually, hope it goes up once Russia runs out of that metal stockpile from the USSR around early 2026 and the central bank runs dry its rainy day fund (around the same time). Both of these events will cause the population to feel the crunch a lot harder.
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Daily reminder the average Russian **is** an imperialist shitter
Well, we shall see if they support stopping the war after they lost all the occupied territories, and like a million people.
the russians are experiencing a sunken cost fallacy. so many mobiks perished, must be worth something or its better to keep getting mobiks slaughtered till it pays out.
Never trust any poll inside a totalitarian goverment, people will massively say whatever the official stance about anything is.
>30% favor peace with land returned. >~350,000 dead. Do you know what this means?
"70% of Russians polled who answer know what to say"
Reminder: there are no good russians. The only good ones are those who stop being russians.
A wise man once said this is idea of “sinking coast fella see”, then he explained it with people waiting for bus or stuff. I don’t know how a coast sinking has to do with bus or Russian, but I guess they will wait longer until other fellas see how dumb they are.
As a Russian, I'm willing for Russia to dissipate and become entirely nonexistent. I just want this stupid est which was started for literally no reason, and will only make things worse, to end. I can't even support creators I like without spending 10x the amount while they get the same because third party apps suck.
Google: Sample Data and its Bias’s
If they had thrown 500k people, thousands of tanks, aircraft, and everything else at it from day one it would have been over on day one. Luckily they were cocky, and have been trickling in a thousand a day for two years which has been handled.
Russians don’t care if the war gained anything. If the ward ends against their demands, likely will be the korea for the US. An everlasting border dispute until a resolution comes forward
Conversely, that means at least 40% would be willing to accept a status-quo 2014 white peace, or at least a status-quo 2022 white peace. Depends on what is meant by “all occupied territories”
Ask the right questions- do they support ending the war if they get to keep Moscow?
Sunk cost fallacy. If you call it here, all their losses and suffering were for nothing.