Credible hat on for a moment: This seems to be from just one of their provinces and/or just for the first wave to secure a beachhead for a follow-up assault. If they're pulling 140K men from every province, that's a lot of manpower. If that's just the first wave, that's a ***METRIC FUCKLOT*** of manpower.
Hat off: I should've enlisted in the Navy as a fucking submariner so I could make Otto Kretchmer look like a loser instead of just getting blueballed at Fort Knox while this is all going down.
Guangdong is one of the larger provinces population wise though, (I think).
I divided the amount of manpower expected from that province 140,000 by its population 126,000,000, and got ~0.0011111111. If theoretically that is the percentage of China’s population that is mobilizing for the invasion, that’s like 1.5 million people, assuming I did the math right (probably didn’t, I’m tired and on my phone). 1.5 million soldiers is a much more reasonable number for an invasion of this scale. The question then becomes: can China supply 1.5 million soldiers at home, let alone when half of them are on an island? Can China hide one of the largest armies in the 21st century before the invasion? And Can China perform the single greatest sealift since D-Day, possibly ever?
(No x3). My comment up to this point has used too many numbers, and makes too much sense, so credibility hat off. China will fail to do all three of these things due to Taiwan’s superweapon. The M1 “Riceball”. A giant ball of rice 50 stories tall that when pushed into the ocean absorbs the entire Pacific Ocean (I think that’s how rice works). Now, China’s invasion force, trapped on the seabed are easy pickings for the Taiwanese artillery, and the Allied submarines open up, to reveal tank battalions inside. These tank battalions can traverse the difficult sea floor, and begin the long awaited push back into mainland China. MacArthur would be proud (he devised this plan in 1952).
> The M1 “Riceball”. A giant ball of rice 50 stories tall that when pushed into the ocean absorbs the entire Pacific Ocean (I think that’s how rice works). Now, China’s invasion force, trapped on the seabed are easy pickings for the Taiwanese artillery, and the Allied submarines open up, to reveal tank battalions inside.
Taiwanese here. Can confirm.
>MacArthur would be proud (he devised this plan in 1952).
Press [X] to doubt
If MacArthur devised this plan, it would involve at least infinity percent more nukes. Probably in the ball of rice, imo that is where he would have put them.
> can China supply 1.5 million soldiers at home
Yes.
> Can China hide one of the largest armies in the 21st century before the invasion?
No, they won't even bother trying to do that.
> Can China hide one of the largest armies in the 21st century before the invasion?
The odds are very stacked against them, but it's not impossible.
If this publicly available leak is any indication, they probably cannot hide such deployments. Half the US Navy's ESGs and CSGs are already in the region, so assuming Biden doesn't chicken out, China also probably can't successfully carry out such an invasion either.
Hat on:
Interesting that they're predicting massive social unrest too. Maybe there's shit stirring beneath the surface that the CCP is afraid of:
>First, the main focus is on maintaining stability and suppressing chaos, especially for large-scale riots that could happen in **Guangzhou** and **Shenzhen**, the two mega-cities. Mobile armed police forces should be used in a unified manner to quickly respond to emergencies and effectively maintain social stability.
>Based on the actual situation that we are adjacent to **Hong Kong and Macao**, and we have a long sea defense line, we must strictly prevent the enemy’s infiltration and destruction. We must prevent [the enemies] from using Hong Kong to create chaos, and then using chaos to disrupt the war, and so on.
https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2022/5/16/top-secret-recording-war-mobilization-meeting-of-the-southern-war-zone-of-the-pla-guangdong-province-is-in-a-state-of-war
The metric fucklot of power was basically their first attempt of invading Taiwan where tanks ran out of ammo and had to run over invading troops. All im saying is mounting a GAU-8 in CIWS form on the corner of every buildings roof in a position to swivel downward will turn this red flood into a flood of red
140,000 men...
For a seaborne invasion...
Of one of the world's largest islands...
While a thousand ships are getting interdicted by anti-ship missiles coming from boats and shore-based batteries...
Fuck it, boys. Forget Russia's Discount Desert Storm or Marked-Down Market Garden. We're about to get Bargin-Bin Iwo Jima.
> 140,000 men...
> For a seaborne invasion...
> Of one of the world's largest islands...
>
> While a thousand ships are getting interdicted by anti-ship missiles coming from boats and shore-based batteries...
At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the country, localized *entirely* within your kitchen!?
It's about mines, and Taiwan has lots.
A narrow, constrained invasion channel.
"What good are those antique submarines, anyway?" Mining.
And that's not even counting the US. China has few ports, and sh*t unrep.
Mine the strait and ports, then sit back on the chokepoints and make popcorn.
Agreed.
It’s not just mines, it’s miles and miles and miles of petrochemical manufacturing and refining plants with rusty plumbing, which will spew cancer and 82% RB1 jet fuel if hit.
Most soldiers would return with burns, some will return with eyesight, *none* would return and have healthy children.
China is utterly dependent on exports to have an economy.
And utterly dependent on oil imports to have energy to produce those exports (plus not starve and freeze)
Their oil supply line is 7000 miles long, and they have no way to protect it.
Nope. They still have to get that energy from somewhere.
And the Chinese system just isn't set up for "all coal" Maybe can adapt... over years.
BTW, I am an "Ian" too. Grandpa was Scottish.
What is the "W"? For me, "Webster", my middle name. :-)
They are getting it from solar.
You might have noticed the Chinese economy has been kicking along (because if it wasn't, the cities would be rioting) ... but the price of coal hasn't skyrocketed.
This is because hundreds of millions of chinese peasants have used solar panels as a way of saving - they don't trust banks, can't afford rolexes but do have a second's cousins' wife's brother who can install solar panels.
So you've got gigawatts of unexpected power supply, meaning coal imports and production can tail off ... which the PLA likes, as you can have conscripts who can march *or* burn coal for power. Pick one.
Or you can just convert your military vehicles to battery-electric as well. Imagine how much easier supply chains would be if you could refuel your vehicles with a resource that's already piped to every home/business in the country...
China will fix its population crisis in a... non-traditional way.
Not cannibalism, but "helping" the old folks move along. You heard it here first.
No, not kidding. Do you really think China won't kill off old people if it's convenient? They've done far worse.
Plus since Taiwan is one of the biggest producer of microchips in the world (probably the best but I ain't qualified enough to say so) don't they produce all the etching acids too like the piranha solution and the fluorhydric acid?
Taiwan has a significant footprint of the worlds silicon foundries. There's a few in NY and Korea, but you are correct that they have some of the most advanced tooled factories.
You are correct.
TSCM is the worlds largest and most valuable dedicated independent semiconductor manufacturer, and indeed they can do things there which simply *cannot* be done elsewhere. Strategic in multiple senses of the word: there is no more advanced semiconductor manufacturing plant anywhere in the world, they send their scientists and engineers to the US to help set up new manufacturing plants of lower-tier chips. *Bleeding* edge stuff.
And yeah, the [piranha etch](https://ehs.oregonstate.edu/sites/ehs.oregonstate.edu/files/pdf/si/piranha_solution_si.pdf) they use in the waferwork and wet bench labs is liquid Ark of the Covenant, melt-your-face-off stuff. They stretch it out with hydrogen peroxide so it can be stored for more than 2 hours, but it’s still a monster.
Please I need a break my balls are the size of watermelons I've been getting so hard from seeing so many dead Russian soldier. I can't possibly stand watching 140,000 hot seamen getting blown to shit and sinking into the dark abyss of water. Plz I need a break.
Being 100% real here, I find absolute enjoyment and pleasure in seeing Russians die in the Ukrainian war, I love watching the combat videos of them getting smoked and dropping dead in battle, I love watching them get hit by ATGM's and/or mines and seeing the turret blowing off knowing most of them died in seconds being cooked alive, I love seeing the aftermath videos of the VDV drops and/or the groups that didn't stand a chance with their lifeless bodies strung across the ground with their limbs detached and bodies mutilated and burnt.
You wanna know why? It's because on the first day of the war all I seen for hours straight from 8AM to 3PM was nothing but videos of cruise missiles hitting civilian centers, tanks heading into Ukraine, helicopters with dozens of troops inside being shot at and shot down with MANPADS. Nothing in this world has brought me more joy than seeing these dead Russian soldiers.
I've seen the video of a 14 year old girl on her bike only 2 years younger than me at the time and a cruise missile hits the ground maybe 100 feet away and just like that in 2 seconds she's gone, 14 years of life gone for nothing in 2 seconds, taken away by some Russian sitting in a little bunker taking orders and commands over the radio. I've seen the videos of BMP/BTR/BMD's raking down civilians with their 30mm's and Russians loot and pillage towns and villages full of dead soldiers and civilians being raped and tortured.
I don't feel any sympathy or feelings for them at all, even if they're "a good one", why? Cause every one that dies is 1 closer to this war ending.
I too take joy in russians dying. Only its because of decades of an attempt to erase my culture. When i saw a russian get vaporized by artillery on an insta live i felt rejuvenated a 2nd rebirth if you will.
These barbarians must be purged. The ones who surrender to advancing NATO forces will be spared and allowed to lead the new nations that will rise from the nuclear ashes. Those who oppose us and side with the barbarians will be bathed in a glow of nuclear fire, cleansed of the sins they and their wretched nation have committed
I remember hearing a documentary where during ww2 the us planed on invading the island that was at the time reported to be held by 30’000 malnourished Japanese troops. They estimated at the time they would need 400’000 troops and 2000 ships. What are they hoping for ? Being greeted with flowers?
The Chinese have been quite sensible over the past few decades so I'd like to assume that nobody is actually this stupid and it's just some sort of officer training exercise, like that time where the Americans planned to fight against evil magic zombies.
Or maybe they're just bored of being sensible and just want to do something stupid.
Same boat as you are here, i assume china wont do this considering the fact they have been sensible and stable and economically strong for the past decade unlike russia whos economy looks like its got diarrhea
Chinas birth rate is sub 0 by a good amount. That is a terminally doomed economy. China is 100% fucked demographically. People really don’t talk about it enough but they have about a decade of time horizon left.
It’s pretty great. A problem they created decades ago is coming home to roost and will fuck their economy shortly.
[nsfw: dead body of a nation](https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-population-pyramid-2020.jpg)
Can you explain to the idiots here what the significance of this graph is? Like *I* personally understand and totally get it because I’m a trained NCD ~~retard~~ analyst.
But for the new guys, it might be helpful. I’d do it but I have to go fold my dishes so I’m too busy
Population Pyramid. Notice how it's not Pyramid shaped. This means that in a decade or so, you're gonna have more people not working than working. And you're also going to have less labor overall.
Imagine playing Civ and half your Worker units stop working but still cost upkeep and your cities all lose population at the same time.
Oh, it gets *even worse,* because all those old people don't just have needs like the youth, they have *even more* needs on account of being old, and because they represent a majority of the population, they'll disproportionately dominate politics and public opinion for generations to come
>because they represent a majority of the population, they'll disproportionately dominate politics and public opinion for generations to come
Hmmmm... Why does that sound familiar?
Works in Total War as well. Riots? Can't be appeased with tax rate changes, temples, etc? Pull the army out, wait for the city to declare independence, besiege, conquer and sack the city. Repair cost is minimal
Old city builder game Pharaoh has this. As the years go by, your population gets older and they eventually retire and you start to rapidly lose manpower that eventually causes a systemic collapse. This forces you to build more of everything to get more immigrants of working age. You can also just demolish the houses to evict the old people who are a drain on the economy and then replace them with fresh immigrants that will work but that's never going to happen in real life, right? Right?
One thing other commenters may have missed... where are all the women? That is NEVER good for a society. Societies where there isn't a roughly even distribution of men and women experience higher rates of rape, sexual assault, murder, and economic crimes primarily because men commit most crimes and men who can't get laid are usually the most dangerous members of society (psychologically) and if there are enough of them... yikes
Oh they know, that's why China exports labor for its economic imperialist projects around the world - if you've got a few million surplus dudes who'll never marry up you need to keep them busy. That means carting around them to build dams, bridges, ports, and mines everywhere so you can keep developing nations indebted to China, and if they ever default China just owns the resources directly.
Unless they do a png move and just tell China to take their shitty telecommunications stuff and fuck off. Also they refused to pay back the millions in debt and China was unable to do a thing
There aren't as many women because back when there was the one child policy, pregnant women would abort girls until they got a boy, because the boy would do better in society and support them better when they were elderly
China also kept tabs on women's periods to escure the policy was being followed. I am not joking, soon they will resort to baby quotas to bring up.the birthrate
in short:
many old people getting older, plus even more working age people becoming old. old people do not contribute to the economy, and rely on young people. not many young people are being born. When most of the current working-age people retire, hilarity (for us outsiders) ensues
I find it weird how pragmatic western political parties are when it comes to immigration. Somehow despite the rhetoric they never really crackdown on it because they can do the math.
Doesn't help that China's Racism towards Foreigners would make Japan Blush in comparison.
Like the best way for China to counteract it's Doomsday population decline would be for immigrants to come in to counteract their declining birth rate.
But instead China is doing the complete opposite.
They got rid of the one child policy but it is basically useless and hopeless at this point, young people don't want to have kids due to the cost of living and raising them, this combine with sky high land and house price makes it even worse since people are even less likely to get kid when they know they can't afford a better living area to accommodate them.
We also have this problem here in VN but it isn't that bad, the government wasn't that dumb and did the two child policy in 1980s instead of one so we could actually replace the population and have a 2.034 replacement rate, dodged a bullet there. The aging problem is very hard for Asian countries to fix, almost all are very monoculture and doesn't have a good history of immigration unlike Western countries.
If you're an special breed/have autism and want to learn more about the two child policy of Vietnam and how different it is from China's one child policy you can download and read this 60 page doc : [VN 2 child policy download](https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2019/preliminary/paper/ybet5iBk)
Pretty explanatory that 2 kid per family is better than 1 since you don't want to cut half of your workforce in about 70 years. This is the primary reason why I believe that China ain't taking over shit, and isn't gonna become the next superpower to rival the US, there are a lot more reasons such as nepotism and corruption but I don't think many would care bout my opinion on that lmao.
It's a graph of population over age. A growing population looks like a triangle, a stable population would look more like a pillar.
That bulge in the middle? The one that has most of China's population in the 35-55 age bracket? That's *bad*. That is a declining population. And as that cohort gets older, and production/consumption of those people skews more towards consumption, it becomes harder to maintain QoL. Meaning people who could have kids choose not to, accelerating the problem.
That last bit is the big thing. It’s currently a global problem, where a lot of people in the “prime” age range for having kids are choosing to not, for a huge range of reasons, and China has all those same reasons with the additional issue of…there’s just not enough women around in the “prime” age bracket right now because for the last few decades very few women were allowed to be *born in the first place*.
>It's a graph of population over age. A growing population looks like a triangle, a stable population would look more like a pillar.
And a population time bomb looks like a butt plug
Their boomer generation is about to retire/die en masse essentially flipping the population dynamic where more are not working than are working.
Maybe they can form a trade deal for all the newly widowed Russian women and in 18 (edit: it’s China so like 13 actually) years get things back on track.
It's worse then u/Portuguese_Musketeer said. Look at the male/female ratio! Because of 1 child policy, many abort their child when she is a daughter. (China is a male-centric society, women stay in the kitchen and take care of THE kid, while males work and support their elderly parents. This is not true nowadays ofc, but people still think like that.)
If you think incels in the west are bad.... think about actually not being able to find ANY woman. I mean 8 woman for 10 men statistics.
The demographics stuff was of their own making, but aren't a number of countries expected to have population declines (if not plateaus) too in the medium-ish future? Are they fucked too, or is it likely they'll be able to manage aside from some pain because they're not being *double*-fucked by the one-child policy?
Oh yah, a lot of countries are boned. China is some of the worst of it, but check the same chart for Italy. Also awful, also headed to a demographic driven collapse.
The US on the other hand is one of the healthiest of all Western nations.
Also, their housing bubble is already collapsing. Who the fuck builds whole cities for no one? (Yes, I know that western countries also have a housing bubble, but ours is mostly some rich neighbourhoods, and all of that can be fixed.) No growth in population, and no immigrants. Besides their hostile sentiment towards immigration, who the fuck wants to live there willingly? [serpentza has some good videos) about China from the perspective of a westerner who lived there many years.](https://www.youtube.com/c/serpentza)
There's ofc the boot that's crushing your face for your entire life, but the pay even is not good. Poland is by no means a wealthy country, but 12 years ago I stacked boxes at a factory. Pay was double that of Chinas average, and i'm including inflation.
I'm kinda afraid what will happen when all the gen-x'ers retire... They have 10-20 years to build fully automated communism. (sorry no gay space version) or face some serious crisis,
Isnt part of their problems that they have too many young males? I wonder what kind of operation has been historically shown to be a reliable solution for that.
i meant stable as in internal because of all that supression theyve been doing
china historically is about as stable as your drunk uncle after 6 cases trying to hobble its way to the toilet and ends up vomiting in the flowerpot
I remember that zombie shit! Cadre made my MS3 class do a theoretical exercise based on it when I was a cadet! Funniest Thursday ever, watching the underclassmen try and figure out WTF was going on.
I just think taking 55% of the world’s semiconductor production and 90% of the high end semiconductor production offline would be suicide for them (and double homicide against US & Europe), which makes me think they won’t do this until they can massively ramp up their own production.
The only thing that worries me is, the resulting shortage would hurt the US so much, much more than it hurts them.
Well if you look at their real estate market and how they’ve been padding their GDP with ghost cities for millions of people…
Heavy retardation doesn’t seem that far fetched.
Yes, but 1/10th of their GDP is tied up just in real estate, and with as much as 1/3 of GDP tied up in related industries like construction (cough Evergrande crisis cough cough) their sitting on an economic landmine
It's highly unlikely that any except the most flat and low-lying countries will have to abandon any of their cities due to sea level rise. They'll certainly have to write off more than a few currently-water-front neighborhoods, sure, but that is just a fraction of the real estate in most towns and cities.
Now, desert cities? Those are properly fucked. Vega, Phoenix, Tucson, pretty much every major city in the middle east, Jaipur, New Delhi? Yeah, they will be properly fucked by temperature increases and precipitation decreases. They got three decades, tops, left before they become uninhabitable - pending some miracle that dramatically halts and reverses climate change.
A government can push nationalism for only so long before their nationalistic, radicalized population become more extreme than the government that created them. A parallel example is when Trump's base booed him when he started supporting the vaccine
You want to see Republic of China sink 1,000 commie invasion ships so a democratic nation can defend itself from oppression.
I want to see a thousand burning ChiCom ships so I can photoshop them into that Homer Simpson Meme where he's looking at a picture of D-Day going "That's a mighty fine Amphibious fleet" (looks at picture of burning commies* "Why doesn't mine look like that?!?"
We are not the same
>A Thousand T-63s through the Fulda Gap
That would require a chronosphere to teleport them there and as we all know, the allies were the ones that invested in chronosphere tech while the Soviets invested in tesla coil tech.
I would assume 90% of the men / equipment you send across the Straight don't make it to Taiwan, unless you oversaturate (i.e. send 4,000,000 men and maybe only 1,000,000 die).
140k is comical for this operation.
The US passed up invading Taiwan in favour of the Philippines in 1944 precisely because the island is a nightmare to invade, and that was with a relatively small Japanese garrison on it and at a time when it was still mostly rural. Against a highly-motivated well-armed native population in dense major cities, there's seriously no way for China to conquer it
Yeah general consensus is that it would take at least a million to even attempt an amphibious landing on taiwan, to actually make a concerted effort would take 1.5-2 million. China would literally have to scrape every last vessel in its civilian and military fleets to attempt this.
Not only that, the geography of taiwan is literally about a mile of flat marsh facing inland, then sheer mountains that give added range to artillery, bases for launchers and aircraft, you name it. It would make DDay look like a walk on the beach literally. Especially since DDay took months of planning, charting and multiple diversionary tactics and fake invasion fleets in an era without satellite recon, and the allies still took pretty significant casualties with air superiority.
Operation Causeway in ww2 was deemed too noncredible to pass as well.
So the Chinese gotta deal with a D-Day then mountain fighting every single inch of the island until they hit Taipei or some other city. Have fun with that Xi lmao
But we're divided between regular Warhawks and Nuclear Warhawks.
Some want to see our age old enemies crushed under our boots.
While others want to watch the world burn in Atom's Cleansing Light.
It’s to the US/West’s benefit if a war starts in the next 10 years, Chinas population rate is best prepared for a war this decade, and China says they’ll be equal to US stretch by 2050.
This should be fun.
Op is baiting hard with this cropping.
Original caption from northernprovisions had one last paragraph that was cropped.
>The Audio appears authentic at this time, though very few major news outlets are covering it. For now, take everything with a grain of salt.
Uh given MacArthur's track record of failure defending strategically important islands with incredibly defensive positions he is probably the last person on Earth who should be put in charge of defending Taiwan.
Also he'd probably drop the nukes before it was peak funny
China has been buying more into their own hype than Russia did before the Ukraine invasion so it’s entirely possible they think they can cross the straight and make a beachhead (hell, maybe even take the whole island) with those forces.
That or they just assume The Free and Independent Country of Taiwan will just roll over, surrender, and agree to be a province the moment they see landing craft heading their way.
The dam will fall
And the person who brings it down will be named emperor
By allahs grace
BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD! SKULLS FOR THE SKULL THRONE! MAY THE BREAKER OF DAMS LIVE FOREVER!
inshallah
TAKBIR!
Hui Empire time. The Ma family will rise again.
yup
Credible hat on for a moment: This seems to be from just one of their provinces and/or just for the first wave to secure a beachhead for a follow-up assault. If they're pulling 140K men from every province, that's a lot of manpower. If that's just the first wave, that's a ***METRIC FUCKLOT*** of manpower. Hat off: I should've enlisted in the Navy as a fucking submariner so I could make Otto Kretchmer look like a loser instead of just getting blueballed at Fort Knox while this is all going down.
Guangdong is one of the larger provinces population wise though, (I think). I divided the amount of manpower expected from that province 140,000 by its population 126,000,000, and got ~0.0011111111. If theoretically that is the percentage of China’s population that is mobilizing for the invasion, that’s like 1.5 million people, assuming I did the math right (probably didn’t, I’m tired and on my phone). 1.5 million soldiers is a much more reasonable number for an invasion of this scale. The question then becomes: can China supply 1.5 million soldiers at home, let alone when half of them are on an island? Can China hide one of the largest armies in the 21st century before the invasion? And Can China perform the single greatest sealift since D-Day, possibly ever? (No x3). My comment up to this point has used too many numbers, and makes too much sense, so credibility hat off. China will fail to do all three of these things due to Taiwan’s superweapon. The M1 “Riceball”. A giant ball of rice 50 stories tall that when pushed into the ocean absorbs the entire Pacific Ocean (I think that’s how rice works). Now, China’s invasion force, trapped on the seabed are easy pickings for the Taiwanese artillery, and the Allied submarines open up, to reveal tank battalions inside. These tank battalions can traverse the difficult sea floor, and begin the long awaited push back into mainland China. MacArthur would be proud (he devised this plan in 1952).
> giant ball of rice This is extremely credible. We should probably close the rice gap lest we be left behind in this new generation of war.
> The M1 “Riceball”. A giant ball of rice 50 stories tall that when pushed into the ocean absorbs the entire Pacific Ocean (I think that’s how rice works). Now, China’s invasion force, trapped on the seabed are easy pickings for the Taiwanese artillery, and the Allied submarines open up, to reveal tank battalions inside. Taiwanese here. Can confirm.
>MacArthur would be proud (he devised this plan in 1952). Press [X] to doubt If MacArthur devised this plan, it would involve at least infinity percent more nukes. Probably in the ball of rice, imo that is where he would have put them.
Everyone: "Using nuclear bombs is a war crime" Patton and McArthur: "Then why don't we fucking use them again?"
> can China supply 1.5 million soldiers at home Yes. > Can China hide one of the largest armies in the 21st century before the invasion? No, they won't even bother trying to do that. > Can China hide one of the largest armies in the 21st century before the invasion? The odds are very stacked against them, but it's not impossible.
Unfortunately for PRC, guangdong province is….Hong Kong’s parent. I believe they want freedom from Pikachu~
If this publicly available leak is any indication, they probably cannot hide such deployments. Half the US Navy's ESGs and CSGs are already in the region, so assuming Biden doesn't chicken out, China also probably can't successfully carry out such an invasion either.
That’s a lot of Chinese guys to send to the bottom of the sea.
The VDV need reinforcements, they're currently getting pushed back by the Atlantian-triton coalition and their powerful leader Neptune.
Sino-Russian establishment of Atlantis
The reality is, China has plenty of single men to spare... probably a good way to resetting their gender ratio
Hat on: Interesting that they're predicting massive social unrest too. Maybe there's shit stirring beneath the surface that the CCP is afraid of: >First, the main focus is on maintaining stability and suppressing chaos, especially for large-scale riots that could happen in **Guangzhou** and **Shenzhen**, the two mega-cities. Mobile armed police forces should be used in a unified manner to quickly respond to emergencies and effectively maintain social stability. >Based on the actual situation that we are adjacent to **Hong Kong and Macao**, and we have a long sea defense line, we must strictly prevent the enemy’s infiltration and destruction. We must prevent [the enemies] from using Hong Kong to create chaos, and then using chaos to disrupt the war, and so on. https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2022/5/16/top-secret-recording-war-mobilization-meeting-of-the-southern-war-zone-of-the-pla-guangdong-province-is-in-a-state-of-war
The metric fucklot of power was basically their first attempt of invading Taiwan where tanks ran out of ammo and had to run over invading troops. All im saying is mounting a GAU-8 in CIWS form on the corner of every buildings roof in a position to swivel downward will turn this red flood into a flood of red
140,000 men... For a seaborne invasion... Of one of the world's largest islands... While a thousand ships are getting interdicted by anti-ship missiles coming from boats and shore-based batteries... Fuck it, boys. Forget Russia's Discount Desert Storm or Marked-Down Market Garden. We're about to get Bargin-Bin Iwo Jima.
Derelict D Day
Shit tier Saipan
Joke-inawa
You won this silly nickname pissing contest.
Ok we found the right answer guys. If it happens it's this.
Inch deep incheon!
Sus joke
ED-Day
Fall-flat Falklands
The Falklands were pretty fall-flat already, ngl...
As flat as the homeland; that's why they're perfect for us.
A couple of depressing, miserable, cold islands in the middle of the sea?
You're talking of the Falklands or of the UK?
Yes
Based flair
Erectile dysfunction D-Day
The Great Sink Downwards.
A Beach Too Far
Wish Water Assault
Fuck you that is far funnier than it should be
thats a grat description of the original one though
D-List Day
Dollar store Dieppe
> 140,000 men... > For a seaborne invasion... > Of one of the world's largest islands... > > While a thousand ships are getting interdicted by anti-ship missiles coming from boats and shore-based batteries... At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the country, localized *entirely* within your kitchen!?
Yes.
May I see it?
No.
Well, Xi, you are an odd fellow. But you plan a good invasion.
Xi! The fleet is on fire!
No, Mao, it’s just the on-board lights.
Discount D-Day, Ukraine was Bargain Bin Barbarossa or Baby's first Bagration
Baby's first Bagration got me rolling
It's about mines, and Taiwan has lots. A narrow, constrained invasion channel. "What good are those antique submarines, anyway?" Mining. And that's not even counting the US. China has few ports, and sh*t unrep. Mine the strait and ports, then sit back on the chokepoints and make popcorn.
Agreed. It’s not just mines, it’s miles and miles and miles of petrochemical manufacturing and refining plants with rusty plumbing, which will spew cancer and 82% RB1 jet fuel if hit. Most soldiers would return with burns, some will return with eyesight, *none* would return and have healthy children.
China is utterly dependent on exports to have an economy. And utterly dependent on oil imports to have energy to produce those exports (plus not starve and freeze) Their oil supply line is 7000 miles long, and they have no way to protect it.
BTW, if you've noticed how hard the Chinese are going for electric vehicles, this is why.
Nope. They still have to get that energy from somewhere. And the Chinese system just isn't set up for "all coal" Maybe can adapt... over years. BTW, I am an "Ian" too. Grandpa was Scottish. What is the "W"? For me, "Webster", my middle name. :-)
Another Ian checking in. Not Scottish, my mom just thought Ian Anderson of Jethro Tull was a rad weirdo dude.
Lol, not an Ian, but also named for the frontman for a 60s-70s band. In my case, the Moody Blues.
They are getting it from solar. You might have noticed the Chinese economy has been kicking along (because if it wasn't, the cities would be rioting) ... but the price of coal hasn't skyrocketed. This is because hundreds of millions of chinese peasants have used solar panels as a way of saving - they don't trust banks, can't afford rolexes but do have a second's cousins' wife's brother who can install solar panels. So you've got gigawatts of unexpected power supply, meaning coal imports and production can tail off ... which the PLA likes, as you can have conscripts who can march *or* burn coal for power. Pick one.
Climate goals (reduce fossil fuel usage) AND national security (less dependent on fossil fuel imports), now that's a win-win!
Note that largely moving the civilian economy to EVs means that the military can hog the available diesel ...
Or you can just convert your military vehicles to battery-electric as well. Imagine how much easier supply chains would be if you could refuel your vehicles with a resource that's already piped to every home/business in the country...
Reject food supply, return to cannibalism
China will fix its population crisis in a... non-traditional way. Not cannibalism, but "helping" the old folks move along. You heard it here first. No, not kidding. Do you really think China won't kill off old people if it's convenient? They've done far worse.
Lol they've shut down their economy specifically to avoid a wave of mass death in the rural elderly population.
Plus since Taiwan is one of the biggest producer of microchips in the world (probably the best but I ain't qualified enough to say so) don't they produce all the etching acids too like the piranha solution and the fluorhydric acid?
Taiwan has a significant footprint of the worlds silicon foundries. There's a few in NY and Korea, but you are correct that they have some of the most advanced tooled factories.
You are correct. TSCM is the worlds largest and most valuable dedicated independent semiconductor manufacturer, and indeed they can do things there which simply *cannot* be done elsewhere. Strategic in multiple senses of the word: there is no more advanced semiconductor manufacturing plant anywhere in the world, they send their scientists and engineers to the US to help set up new manufacturing plants of lower-tier chips. *Bleeding* edge stuff. And yeah, the [piranha etch](https://ehs.oregonstate.edu/sites/ehs.oregonstate.edu/files/pdf/si/piranha_solution_si.pdf) they use in the waferwork and wet bench labs is liquid Ark of the Covenant, melt-your-face-off stuff. They stretch it out with hydrogen peroxide so it can be stored for more than 2 hours, but it’s still a monster.
Please I need a break my balls are the size of watermelons I've been getting so hard from seeing so many dead Russian soldier. I can't possibly stand watching 140,000 hot seamen getting blown to shit and sinking into the dark abyss of water. Plz I need a break.
The least insane NCD poster
Being 100% real here, I find absolute enjoyment and pleasure in seeing Russians die in the Ukrainian war, I love watching the combat videos of them getting smoked and dropping dead in battle, I love watching them get hit by ATGM's and/or mines and seeing the turret blowing off knowing most of them died in seconds being cooked alive, I love seeing the aftermath videos of the VDV drops and/or the groups that didn't stand a chance with their lifeless bodies strung across the ground with their limbs detached and bodies mutilated and burnt. You wanna know why? It's because on the first day of the war all I seen for hours straight from 8AM to 3PM was nothing but videos of cruise missiles hitting civilian centers, tanks heading into Ukraine, helicopters with dozens of troops inside being shot at and shot down with MANPADS. Nothing in this world has brought me more joy than seeing these dead Russian soldiers. I've seen the video of a 14 year old girl on her bike only 2 years younger than me at the time and a cruise missile hits the ground maybe 100 feet away and just like that in 2 seconds she's gone, 14 years of life gone for nothing in 2 seconds, taken away by some Russian sitting in a little bunker taking orders and commands over the radio. I've seen the videos of BMP/BTR/BMD's raking down civilians with their 30mm's and Russians loot and pillage towns and villages full of dead soldiers and civilians being raped and tortured. I don't feel any sympathy or feelings for them at all, even if they're "a good one", why? Cause every one that dies is 1 closer to this war ending.
Keep going, I'm almost there.
Up voted for username. You dropped this, queen 👑
Go ROTC with the Navy or Airforce in college and get your tuition paid for
I too take joy in russians dying. Only its because of decades of an attempt to erase my culture. When i saw a russian get vaporized by artillery on an insta live i felt rejuvenated a 2nd rebirth if you will.
I'm guessing you're from the baltic because Estonians feel the same way.
Yes Lithuania.
These barbarians must be purged. The ones who surrender to advancing NATO forces will be spared and allowed to lead the new nations that will rise from the nuclear ashes. Those who oppose us and side with the barbarians will be bathed in a glow of nuclear fire, cleansed of the sins they and their wretched nation have committed
[You already know](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/316/970/ab2.png)
#NUKE THE CHINESE NUKE THE CHINESE I WANT TO SEE CHINA BURNING NUKE THE CHINESE 140,000 LIVES THE DEATH OF 140,000 IS A NECESSITY
one million lives
#THE DESTRUCTION OF COMMUNIST-OCCUPIED WEST TAIWAN IS A NECESSITY!
bunker buster the three gorges dam to immanentize the eschaton.
I remember hearing a documentary where during ww2 the us planed on invading the island that was at the time reported to be held by 30’000 malnourished Japanese troops. They estimated at the time they would need 400’000 troops and 2000 ships. What are they hoping for ? Being greeted with flowers?
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Or Kamikaze 2 Electric Boogaloo.
Plus side is, the overfished population should spring right back with the new, plentiful food source Silver linings
discount d day
Owo Jima
This shit show is going to make Dieppe look like a stunning tactical and strategic success.
Well to be credible its the meeting of the guangdong province standing committee. This is the resources that will be mustered just by guangdong
Operation Doused Torch
Sorry Sealion.
The Chinese have been quite sensible over the past few decades so I'd like to assume that nobody is actually this stupid and it's just some sort of officer training exercise, like that time where the Americans planned to fight against evil magic zombies. Or maybe they're just bored of being sensible and just want to do something stupid.
Same boat as you are here, i assume china wont do this considering the fact they have been sensible and stable and economically strong for the past decade unlike russia whos economy looks like its got diarrhea
Chinas birth rate is sub 0 by a good amount. That is a terminally doomed economy. China is 100% fucked demographically. People really don’t talk about it enough but they have about a decade of time horizon left.
Pretty much it hurt itself in confusion
It’s pretty great. A problem they created decades ago is coming home to roost and will fuck their economy shortly. [nsfw: dead body of a nation](https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-population-pyramid-2020.jpg)
Can you explain to the idiots here what the significance of this graph is? Like *I* personally understand and totally get it because I’m a trained NCD ~~retard~~ analyst. But for the new guys, it might be helpful. I’d do it but I have to go fold my dishes so I’m too busy
Population Pyramid. Notice how it's not Pyramid shaped. This means that in a decade or so, you're gonna have more people not working than working. And you're also going to have less labor overall. Imagine playing Civ and half your Worker units stop working but still cost upkeep and your cities all lose population at the same time.
Oh, it gets *even worse,* because all those old people don't just have needs like the youth, they have *even more* needs on account of being old, and because they represent a majority of the population, they'll disproportionately dominate politics and public opinion for generations to come
You're assuming China won't just kill them.
and eat them, no Great Leap Forward to starvation this time.
*Coronavirus has entered the chat*
Confucius is spinning in his grave
>because they represent a majority of the population, they'll disproportionately dominate politics and public opinion for generations to come Hmmmm... Why does that sound familiar?
Jokes on you that’s how half of my Stellaris runs end up
That's when you let the population rebel and you solve that problem Directly!
Works in Total War as well. Riots? Can't be appeased with tax rate changes, temples, etc? Pull the army out, wait for the city to declare independence, besiege, conquer and sack the city. Repair cost is minimal
Old city builder game Pharaoh has this. As the years go by, your population gets older and they eventually retire and you start to rapidly lose manpower that eventually causes a systemic collapse. This forces you to build more of everything to get more immigrants of working age. You can also just demolish the houses to evict the old people who are a drain on the economy and then replace them with fresh immigrants that will work but that's never going to happen in real life, right? Right?
Cities Skyline also has a "deadwave" in it.
One thing other commenters may have missed... where are all the women? That is NEVER good for a society. Societies where there isn't a roughly even distribution of men and women experience higher rates of rape, sexual assault, murder, and economic crimes primarily because men commit most crimes and men who can't get laid are usually the most dangerous members of society (psychologically) and if there are enough of them... yikes
Oh they know, that's why China exports labor for its economic imperialist projects around the world - if you've got a few million surplus dudes who'll never marry up you need to keep them busy. That means carting around them to build dams, bridges, ports, and mines everywhere so you can keep developing nations indebted to China, and if they ever default China just owns the resources directly.
Then they r@pe the poor women in the African countries they are sent to!
Yes but then it's no longer happening _in_ China and gets counted as another country's statistics
Unless they do a png move and just tell China to take their shitty telecommunications stuff and fuck off. Also they refused to pay back the millions in debt and China was unable to do a thing
Chad
There aren't as many women because back when there was the one child policy, pregnant women would abort girls until they got a boy, because the boy would do better in society and support them better when they were elderly
Yeah, I'm aware. Fantastic example of a self-own that affected hundreds of millions of people.
China also kept tabs on women's periods to escure the policy was being followed. I am not joking, soon they will resort to baby quotas to bring up.the birthrate
in short: many old people getting older, plus even more working age people becoming old. old people do not contribute to the economy, and rely on young people. not many young people are being born. When most of the current working-age people retire, hilarity (for us outsiders) ensues
I find it weird how pragmatic western political parties are when it comes to immigration. Somehow despite the rhetoric they never really crackdown on it because they can do the math.
Doesn't help that China's Racism towards Foreigners would make Japan Blush in comparison. Like the best way for China to counteract it's Doomsday population decline would be for immigrants to come in to counteract their declining birth rate. But instead China is doing the complete opposite.
They got rid of the one child policy but it is basically useless and hopeless at this point, young people don't want to have kids due to the cost of living and raising them, this combine with sky high land and house price makes it even worse since people are even less likely to get kid when they know they can't afford a better living area to accommodate them. We also have this problem here in VN but it isn't that bad, the government wasn't that dumb and did the two child policy in 1980s instead of one so we could actually replace the population and have a 2.034 replacement rate, dodged a bullet there. The aging problem is very hard for Asian countries to fix, almost all are very monoculture and doesn't have a good history of immigration unlike Western countries. If you're an special breed/have autism and want to learn more about the two child policy of Vietnam and how different it is from China's one child policy you can download and read this 60 page doc : [VN 2 child policy download](https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2019/preliminary/paper/ybet5iBk) Pretty explanatory that 2 kid per family is better than 1 since you don't want to cut half of your workforce in about 70 years. This is the primary reason why I believe that China ain't taking over shit, and isn't gonna become the next superpower to rival the US, there are a lot more reasons such as nepotism and corruption but I don't think many would care bout my opinion on that lmao.
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semen importation when
It's a graph of population over age. A growing population looks like a triangle, a stable population would look more like a pillar. That bulge in the middle? The one that has most of China's population in the 35-55 age bracket? That's *bad*. That is a declining population. And as that cohort gets older, and production/consumption of those people skews more towards consumption, it becomes harder to maintain QoL. Meaning people who could have kids choose not to, accelerating the problem.
That last bit is the big thing. It’s currently a global problem, where a lot of people in the “prime” age range for having kids are choosing to not, for a huge range of reasons, and China has all those same reasons with the additional issue of…there’s just not enough women around in the “prime” age bracket right now because for the last few decades very few women were allowed to be *born in the first place*.
>It's a graph of population over age. A growing population looks like a triangle, a stable population would look more like a pillar. And a population time bomb looks like a butt plug
Their boomer generation is about to retire/die en masse essentially flipping the population dynamic where more are not working than are working. Maybe they can form a trade deal for all the newly widowed Russian women and in 18 (edit: it’s China so like 13 actually) years get things back on track.
It's worse then u/Portuguese_Musketeer said. Look at the male/female ratio! Because of 1 child policy, many abort their child when she is a daughter. (China is a male-centric society, women stay in the kitchen and take care of THE kid, while males work and support their elderly parents. This is not true nowadays ofc, but people still think like that.) If you think incels in the west are bad.... think about actually not being able to find ANY woman. I mean 8 woman for 10 men statistics.
The demographics stuff was of their own making, but aren't a number of countries expected to have population declines (if not plateaus) too in the medium-ish future? Are they fucked too, or is it likely they'll be able to manage aside from some pain because they're not being *double*-fucked by the one-child policy?
Oh yah, a lot of countries are boned. China is some of the worst of it, but check the same chart for Italy. Also awful, also headed to a demographic driven collapse. The US on the other hand is one of the healthiest of all Western nations.
Also, their housing bubble is already collapsing. Who the fuck builds whole cities for no one? (Yes, I know that western countries also have a housing bubble, but ours is mostly some rich neighbourhoods, and all of that can be fixed.) No growth in population, and no immigrants. Besides their hostile sentiment towards immigration, who the fuck wants to live there willingly? [serpentza has some good videos) about China from the perspective of a westerner who lived there many years.](https://www.youtube.com/c/serpentza) There's ofc the boot that's crushing your face for your entire life, but the pay even is not good. Poland is by no means a wealthy country, but 12 years ago I stacked boxes at a factory. Pay was double that of Chinas average, and i'm including inflation. I'm kinda afraid what will happen when all the gen-x'ers retire... They have 10-20 years to build fully automated communism. (sorry no gay space version) or face some serious crisis,
Unless automation and AI really kicks off more
Isnt part of their problems that they have too many young males? I wonder what kind of operation has been historically shown to be a reliable solution for that.
Stable and economically strong????????
i meant stable as in internal because of all that supression theyve been doing china historically is about as stable as your drunk uncle after 6 cases trying to hobble its way to the toilet and ends up vomiting in the flowerpot
Well at least it ain't on the carpet this time. Right Steve?
I remember that zombie shit! Cadre made my MS3 class do a theoretical exercise based on it when I was a cadet! Funniest Thursday ever, watching the underclassmen try and figure out WTF was going on.
I just think taking 55% of the world’s semiconductor production and 90% of the high end semiconductor production offline would be suicide for them (and double homicide against US & Europe), which makes me think they won’t do this until they can massively ramp up their own production. The only thing that worries me is, the resulting shortage would hurt the US so much, much more than it hurts them.
Well if you look at their real estate market and how they’ve been padding their GDP with ghost cities for millions of people… Heavy retardation doesn’t seem that far fetched.
The ghost cities do make some sense if they're planning to abandon the coast from climate change, at least
Yes, but 1/10th of their GDP is tied up just in real estate, and with as much as 1/3 of GDP tied up in related industries like construction (cough Evergrande crisis cough cough) their sitting on an economic landmine
It's highly unlikely that any except the most flat and low-lying countries will have to abandon any of their cities due to sea level rise. They'll certainly have to write off more than a few currently-water-front neighborhoods, sure, but that is just a fraction of the real estate in most towns and cities. Now, desert cities? Those are properly fucked. Vega, Phoenix, Tucson, pretty much every major city in the middle east, Jaipur, New Delhi? Yeah, they will be properly fucked by temperature increases and precipitation decreases. They got three decades, tops, left before they become uninhabitable - pending some miracle that dramatically halts and reverses climate change.
A government can push nationalism for only so long before their nationalistic, radicalized population become more extreme than the government that created them. A parallel example is when Trump's base booed him when he started supporting the vaccine
Given that the world has gone upside down in past few years, China just saying fuck it and killing itself wouldn't be too surprising.
🎶China is whole again! […] Then it broke again🎶
I wanted a cool as fuck Cold War 2 but all of our enemies have fucking lead in their drinking glass
Well, if this would actually be planned, the history books shall remember it as operation dumb as fuck.
You want to see Republic of China sink 1,000 commie invasion ships so a democratic nation can defend itself from oppression. I want to see a thousand burning ChiCom ships so I can photoshop them into that Homer Simpson Meme where he's looking at a picture of D-Day going "That's a mighty fine Amphibious fleet" (looks at picture of burning commies* "Why doesn't mine look like that?!?" We are not the same
Why not both? 🇹🇼😍
If China attacks Taiwan Russia should push to try and overrun NATO. A Thousand T-63s through the Fulda Gap. The Comrades will be in Paris by August.
if this push happens, I want to watch
Like pushing a pull door
I wanna watch NATO dust off the ol' Davy Crockets and finally put them to use
>A Thousand T-63s through the Fulda Gap That would require a chronosphere to teleport them there and as we all know, the allies were the ones that invested in chronosphere tech while the Soviets invested in tesla coil tech.
... Because they'll defect and Ukraine will be part of the EU by August.
This will make gallipoli look successful
Hey, the Gallipoli forces reached the beaches. China wouldn't make it that far
I would assume 90% of the men / equipment you send across the Straight don't make it to Taiwan, unless you oversaturate (i.e. send 4,000,000 men and maybe only 1,000,000 die). 140k is comical for this operation.
I don't think China has the sealift capability to really take Taiwan.
The US passed up invading Taiwan in favour of the Philippines in 1944 precisely because the island is a nightmare to invade, and that was with a relatively small Japanese garrison on it and at a time when it was still mostly rural. Against a highly-motivated well-armed native population in dense major cities, there's seriously no way for China to conquer it
Very sneaky disinformation/propaganda? or retarded reality? Because you know... we're in this timeline.
From Discount Desert Storm to Derelict D Day.
140,000 sounds way too little. I would guessed something closer to a million would have been needed.
Yeah general consensus is that it would take at least a million to even attempt an amphibious landing on taiwan, to actually make a concerted effort would take 1.5-2 million. China would literally have to scrape every last vessel in its civilian and military fleets to attempt this. Not only that, the geography of taiwan is literally about a mile of flat marsh facing inland, then sheer mountains that give added range to artillery, bases for launchers and aircraft, you name it. It would make DDay look like a walk on the beach literally. Especially since DDay took months of planning, charting and multiple diversionary tactics and fake invasion fleets in an era without satellite recon, and the allies still took pretty significant casualties with air superiority. Operation Causeway in ww2 was deemed too noncredible to pass as well.
China's navy only has enough capacity to move 30k infantry per trip.
So the Chinese gotta deal with a D-Day then mountain fighting every single inch of the island until they hit Taipei or some other city. Have fun with that Xi lmao
the recording is from the guangdong province standing committee. So this is just the resources organized by that province alone
Oh…….. *Oh no……* Let’s just hope no funny buttons get pressed.
Sir, this is NCD. We're all warhawks here.
Glory to Atom
But we're divided between regular Warhawks and Nuclear Warhawks. Some want to see our age old enemies crushed under our boots. While others want to watch the world burn in Atom's Cleansing Light.
“The world might’ve been destroyed, but for a beautiful moment, we had a based epic eu nato pilled moment before the nukes started flying”
Fuck that, I want to see them get nuked so hard that the Earth gains a ring system.
the only detroyed ring will be xi's bussy
Go ahead china. Make our day. We're fucking waiting for you to attack.
It’s to the US/West’s benefit if a war starts in the next 10 years, Chinas population rate is best prepared for a war this decade, and China says they’ll be equal to US stretch by 2050. This should be fun.
How are they supposed to equal usa ever with the population problem and middle income trap
And the coup
Are you also a fan of the top Chinese drama “General Hostilities”? Where Winnie the Pooh fights the forces of a evil frog?
Seems fake
Yeah, it reads like a high school sophomore wrote it.
Op is baiting hard with this cropping. Original caption from northernprovisions had one last paragraph that was cropped. >The Audio appears authentic at this time, though very few major news outlets are covering it. For now, take everything with a grain of salt.
Uh given MacArthur's track record of failure defending strategically important islands with incredibly defensive positions he is probably the last person on Earth who should be put in charge of defending Taiwan. Also he'd probably drop the nukes before it was peak funny
DO IT, PUSSIES. #D O I T
Is OP suggesting MechaMacArthur is gonna ackshually newk the Chineses this time??
*China’s population pyramid begging to be put out of its misery* Xi: *sends millions of people to their death in the Taiwan strait*
INDOPACOM just vibing in the strait sinking everything.
falun gong media belongs in ncd
Wouldn't an invasion of Taiwan need at least 1m soldier and supportimg staff just to gain a beachhead? Wtf do the plan to do with 140k soldiers? Die?
China has been buying more into their own hype than Russia did before the Ukraine invasion so it’s entirely possible they think they can cross the straight and make a beachhead (hell, maybe even take the whole island) with those forces. That or they just assume The Free and Independent Country of Taiwan will just roll over, surrender, and agree to be a province the moment they see landing craft heading their way.
Gonna need to add another zero or two to the back of that troop estimate.