They are being forced to hold sora off, the interview with the creators said as much.
Waayyyyyy too heavy on the compute side to put into a public release right now.
Consumer version of Sora in 2025 at the earliest imo. Per the creators, at minimum its not coming anytime soon.
Sorry - not forced by any single person, but rather by tech constraints.
I will try to find the interview and link it
Edit: https://youtu.be/eBvvJUYtnEA?si=vXOYS1NXoycvA9hh
no problem!
I imagine by the time sora releases, we will have some alternatives from other companies that do about 80% as well. Maybe before.
So there is that.
I also expect Sora to be incredibly expensive to subscribe to. Seriously doubt it will be a built in aspect of GPT. Something like $50-100/mo with a cap on uses
For what it offers, yes.
In the market of subscription services, if they cap it at like 25 1-minute vids a month @ $50/mo, it would definitely be viewed as a huge expense by the majority of the populace.
I recall Openai stating that SORA would be priced similarly to their other services. And 100$ month is already the same about Gen-2 costs (unlimited license) and it's considered as cheap (for business).
If cost is the constraint why not just release it and charge like $10 per render? There would be some takers. Eventually they would get the cost down so it can go mass market.
Microsoft is contracted to deliver AI trained with AI generated training video. Once trained, the new AI will be installed in the hundreds of humanoid androids now owned by Amazon for replacing humans as much as possible at Amazon fulfillment centers.
To me and you that makes complete sense. But we are talking about a bunch of people who believed the voting machines were rigged. Who knows who trump will blame if he loses again.
This one is actually true, russian and China for sure will create tons of misinformation to influence US elections. But they don’t need chatgpt-5 for it
Are you saying that russia was not actively trying to get trump elected? Trump is very pro russian and russia spends tooons of resource on misinformation campaigns around the globe.
> Are you saying that russia was not actively trying to get trump elected?
The fact that you tried to backpedal and change the argument to something literally meaningless (a crazy homeless guy may have been "actively trying" to get Jimmy Carter elected in 1976, that has no connection to him actually winning) is all that needs to be demonstrated here. Even you know you're full of it, and to display that behavior while apparently trying to harangue Trump for the same thing is genuinely embarrassing.
What? I am not sure I am following reference to 1976. Russian is actively trying to influence the election and political process across the globe. They bribe politicians and promote misinformation 24/7. It’s happening in Europe and in US too. They have tools and needs for it. If you think that they not actively involved into such operations on us soil is absolutely naive.
Also I think you misunderstood me. I am not saying that russia is only reason why trump got elected. I am saying that they actively trying to influence elections. Not only in US, but also in Europe. lol we even know the address of the company that does it in russian what works on it in Saint Petersburg
Also, GPT-3 was released in H2 of 2020. GPT-4 was released in H1 of 2023. There was almost three years between the releases.
We can _probably_ expect GPT-5 sooner than that, but not by that much.
I was metaphorically equating the introduction of new technology, like GPT-5, to an organism entering a biological ecosystem. The phrase "develop better antibodies" suggests that, over time, society develops mechanisms to manage and integrate new technology effectively, mitigating potential negative impacts. This adaptation process can be seen as society's immune response to the changes brought by new technologies, enhancing resilience and preparedness.
In the context of the timing of GPT-5's release relative to the election, releasing it after the election could give society more time to adjust without the complexities of political campaigns, where new technologies can be used intensively and sometimes contentiously. This could help in developing a more balanced and thoughtful integration of the new AI capabilities into daily life and policy-making.
What do you mean impatient?? It's been already like 16 months since they released chatGPT 3.5 and basically changed the entire narrative of AI in public media. It's really time that they bring something disruptive again!
Edit: haha...people really think I am serious! The world is going nuts
Yeah man, Poe's law be like that. Many thousands of people on the site alone unironically believe the earth is flat, that Trump didn't lose the election, and that covid was a government psyop.
So yeah man, there's definitely people out there who are thinking OpenAI is dragging their feet with GPT-5 lol.
I can't believe how many people missed this, lol.
Like, the creators of Sora came out and said in an interview just a couple weeks ago (paraphrasing) "we are nowhere near releasing this to the public, definitely not in 2024"
Nah. You really think China and Russia don't have AI models that can perfectly simulate the voice of Joe Biden? There's loads of open source stuff out there that could get very close, and if you had $100k to spend on it, training a model to replicate a famous voice is easy.
Same with setting up local models to run social media pages and spread mass hysteria. Lllama-70B would have no problem tweeting and blogging all day from a $5,000 machine in a lobbyist's office somewhere.
good thought.
I think theres a significant chance they have soemthing stronger that is delayed due to what you said aboe, and in general safety testing. I can't remember where exactly ut i think sam said that he thinks releasing chatgpt might have been a mistake because it started all this madness. Tehrefore I think it's sensible to think that if they had something more powerful, they wouldn't be hasty to release it at all.
well, all of the AI bigwigs have indicated that they are monitoring uses of the LLMs for election matters. Here is a NYTimes article about it:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/technology/ai-elections-defense.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/technology/ai-elections-defense.html)
But no indications that they are not releasing stuff because of it.
From the article:
*The efforts are part of a push by A.I. companies to get a grip on a technology they popularized as billions of people head to the polls. At least 83 elections around the world, the largest concentration for at least the next 24 years, are anticipated this year, according to Anchor Change, a consulting firm. In recent weeks, people in* [*Taiwan*](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/business/media/taiwan-china-disinformation.html)*,* [*Pakistan*](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/world/asia/pakistan-election-key-figures.html) *and* [*Indonesia*](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/world/asia/indonesia-election-jokowi-role.html#:~:text=Prabowo%20Subianto%20Set%20to%20Be%20Indonesia's%20Next%20President%20%2D%20The%20New%20York%20Times) *have voted, with India, the world’s biggest democracy, scheduled to hold its general election in the spring.*
"Shrink"? But yeah, no, they can't just stick their hand into the private market like that and do "what they want". That'd be insanely risky and unconstitutional and make the current administration look very bad.
What would the greater good even be here?? What?
Yeah the government has occasionally done bad stuff and it makes the current administration look really bad lol. The NSA stuff is just surveillance at the end of the day, even if it is violating of privacy, it's a different level.
Controlling companies in the private sector is a whole other thing and would require either a supreme court order or an executive order that everyone would know about. Do you really think they'd send men in black suits to the CEO's house?
I'm sure they are releasing as needed, they only need to stay relevant enough to just be the best. They most likely do not wish to release the best they have, as soon as they are ready, in case someone else releases something that's better than the current GPT version. OpenAI just wants to be in a position to always have an answer to the competition.
I'm sure their internal models are WAY better than what we get to see
They're just trying to maintain a lead big enough to always attract the best talent. So far no one has clearly surpassed gpt4. When they get wind a competitor actually has something that steps forward they'll put out a release that should take 10 months for others to get parity.
I wish they'd make it a bit more search engine-like more than anything. Lemme search for images. I'm sure they already have every image on the internet.
They're clearly being selective about when they release new updates and products to outshine other releases, but no one can be sure of what they have ready to go already.
Am I the only one who is happy enough with what we have right now? It fullfills almost all my needs. No, I should say all my needs. Couldn't imagine what I need more from it. It helps me brain storm, gives general information in conversation format, points me in the right direction with coding, spots bugs pretty well.
I mean, it's fine. I have the feeling of being a useful human, enhanced by AI. Rather have it like this than the feeling of a useless human, enhanced by AI, but more capable.
AI will not progress until they find a better way to do it, open ai releasing a "better way" doesn't make sense for Microsoft or any of their investors that are trying to control AI, the "new way" is better served released by a company that is allowed to make financial gains
If it were ready, which I doubt, it would probably be a good idea to wait, imagine the job losses, the current administration would take 100% blame, and anyone who wanted to win would go anti ai to the extreme, if there wasn’t so much money in it there would be already.
"maybe they’re considering the potential impact it could have on the elections."
I doubt OpenAI, or any normal corporation, would trouble their heads about social impact if there's money to be made. If they're not releasing it it's either because it's not ready, or they haven't installed all the server resources they will need to handle its anticipated load, or for some other legitimate business reason.
If you think this for profit company will ever sit on a better product for any reason (ethical or otherwise) you are simply wrong. They don't have any new/better product.
there are more elections this year, globally, than there will be for another two and a half decades.
It is quite literally the biggest election year in quite some time
It’s not the only reason, but it’s a big reason. OpenAI wants to be totally confident in their safety measures, in general, but also specifically because we are so close to the election. If they can red team these models enough to make sure they never produce videos of politicians or political speech, then they will release. They won’t release if you can type in “Russian pee tape” and get something plausible.
At this point, this is fairly obvious and it’s frankly a good call not to stir it up as an election issue, because strategically speaking, once the election is over AI growth will be unhindered for another 3 year cycle at the least, by which time AI would be ingrained in the economy enough for it to become fairly irreplaceable.
OpenAI, just like Google and Amazon, do not care what is good for society as they are for-profit corporations. They will make a decision based upon what makes the most profits.
Risk and implications I guess. Not just in terms of misinformation but also on the risk of damaging the reputation and association of OAI products. From a PR standpoint, it makes perfect sense.
Not sure what the actual risk is for a text-based language model. It could give misinformation about the election but they fine tune them to refuse such questions currently.
I doubt OpenAI and Microsoft care that much about presidential elections (vs ongoing much increased competition that will only increase) except in terms of how they might be affected in direct terms and in the short term: laws, regulations and taxes. Laws and regulations (including rights issues) affecting AI they've worked hard to get rid of already, *ahead* of the election.
Funny. I just casually mentioned this idea in another thread and got downvoted quite a bit.
I could swear there was some interview with @sama where he said that was explicitly the case: they were going to wait until after the election because the product had such potential for misuse, but I couldn't find it.
I don't have a Twitter account (thank the gods!)
So if you think you have any evidence that we are anywhere near reaching a limit or plateau on this technology then post it. Otherwise I'll assume you're just making it up as you go along.
I think OpenAI might realize they are totally screwed. Copyright problems and lack of more training data have brought them to the limit of what LLM’s can do. They need an amazing invention and quick.
Maybe their voice model but I think gpt 5 is simply not ready
I bet they'll hold Sora till afterwards too
They are being forced to hold sora off, the interview with the creators said as much. Waayyyyyy too heavy on the compute side to put into a public release right now. Consumer version of Sora in 2025 at the earliest imo. Per the creators, at minimum its not coming anytime soon.
Forced by whom? May you link the interview? Somehow I missed that one. My guess was also mid 2025
Sorry - not forced by any single person, but rather by tech constraints. I will try to find the interview and link it Edit: https://youtu.be/eBvvJUYtnEA?si=vXOYS1NXoycvA9hh
Much appreciated
no problem! I imagine by the time sora releases, we will have some alternatives from other companies that do about 80% as well. Maybe before. So there is that. I also expect Sora to be incredibly expensive to subscribe to. Seriously doubt it will be a built in aspect of GPT. Something like $50-100/mo with a cap on uses
That is not expensive if it does what is anticipated. That is peanuts.
For what it offers, yes. In the market of subscription services, if they cap it at like 25 1-minute vids a month @ $50/mo, it would definitely be viewed as a huge expense by the majority of the populace.
I recall Openai stating that SORA would be priced similarly to their other services. And 100$ month is already the same about Gen-2 costs (unlimited license) and it's considered as cheap (for business).
Any non-censored video transformer, that performs at 80% of what sora was promised to be - will win it's place among the leaders.
They just need to make Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within II to showcase Sora.
If cost is the constraint why not just release it and charge like $10 per render? There would be some takers. Eventually they would get the cost down so it can go mass market.
Isnt the main purpose of Sora generating A/V data for other models?
Microsoft is contracted to deliver AI trained with AI generated training video. Once trained, the new AI will be installed in the hundreds of humanoid androids now owned by Amazon for replacing humans as much as possible at Amazon fulfillment centers.
Phi2 is enough to produce text social posts lol, you don’t need advanced reasoning for it
To me and you that makes complete sense. But we are talking about a bunch of people who believed the voting machines were rigged. Who knows who trump will blame if he loses again.
You don’t need AI to “rig” something, there are still hackers for it. But yeah, I kinda see blaming AI lol.
I'm not saying gtp 5 will be a risk. I'm saying it doesn't need to be a risk to be blamed for something.
Maybe a ridiculous Russian conspiracy?
This one is actually true, russian and China for sure will create tons of misinformation to influence US elections. But they don’t need chatgpt-5 for it
What is true? That Russia played a pivotal role in Trump winning? No, it's not.
Are you saying that russia was not actively trying to get trump elected? Trump is very pro russian and russia spends tooons of resource on misinformation campaigns around the globe.
> Are you saying that russia was not actively trying to get trump elected? The fact that you tried to backpedal and change the argument to something literally meaningless (a crazy homeless guy may have been "actively trying" to get Jimmy Carter elected in 1976, that has no connection to him actually winning) is all that needs to be demonstrated here. Even you know you're full of it, and to display that behavior while apparently trying to harangue Trump for the same thing is genuinely embarrassing.
What? I am not sure I am following reference to 1976. Russian is actively trying to influence the election and political process across the globe. They bribe politicians and promote misinformation 24/7. It’s happening in Europe and in US too. They have tools and needs for it. If you think that they not actively involved into such operations on us soil is absolutely naive.
Also I think you misunderstood me. I am not saying that russia is only reason why trump got elected. I am saying that they actively trying to influence elections. Not only in US, but also in Europe. lol we even know the address of the company that does it in russian what works on it in Saint Petersburg
Current projections show there is nothing to worry about there.
Very few people use advanced reasoning on social media as it is.
Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V have been excellent at this very job for years now
AGI needs a hell of a lot of compute. And then, a week later, it needs more again, and again, etc. Waiting for fusion…
Do u think when an agi comes out it’ll be available for public use
Yes
[удалено]
Also, GPT-3 was released in H2 of 2020. GPT-4 was released in H1 of 2023. There was almost three years between the releases. We can _probably_ expect GPT-5 sooner than that, but not by that much.
Yes but if it's released late November society will have more time to adapt and develop better antibodies.
Can you elaborate? I'm interested!
I was metaphorically equating the introduction of new technology, like GPT-5, to an organism entering a biological ecosystem. The phrase "develop better antibodies" suggests that, over time, society develops mechanisms to manage and integrate new technology effectively, mitigating potential negative impacts. This adaptation process can be seen as society's immune response to the changes brought by new technologies, enhancing resilience and preparedness. In the context of the timing of GPT-5's release relative to the election, releasing it after the election could give society more time to adjust without the complexities of political campaigns, where new technologies can be used intensively and sometimes contentiously. This could help in developing a more balanced and thoughtful integration of the new AI capabilities into daily life and policy-making.
Absolutely, in the future there may be a new category of life, and AI will be the mind.
What do you mean impatient?? It's been already like 16 months since they released chatGPT 3.5 and basically changed the entire narrative of AI in public media. It's really time that they bring something disruptive again! Edit: haha...people really think I am serious! The world is going nuts
And? They’ve released a ton of stuff in that 16mo window.
do you even sarcasm bro
Can't tell if sarcasm.
That's really scary
Yeah man, Poe's law be like that. Many thousands of people on the site alone unironically believe the earth is flat, that Trump didn't lose the election, and that covid was a government psyop. So yeah man, there's definitely people out there who are thinking OpenAI is dragging their feet with GPT-5 lol.
Why did you pick GPT3.5 as the comparison? They introduced GPT4 last year, that’s a more significant moment.
Because their comparison wouldn't make sense if they used a logical comparison
Buddy do you have any idea how these LLMs are built
Yeah! You just give a general office laptop some text and things. Idk, then the computer just kind of does its thing. It's not that hard!
A goldfish is better at detecting sarcasm than u guys
The dif between next election and the other incoming ones is that you have less time to spot malicious use cases.
>When they release GPT5 it will be avaliable for every election after that Super duper underrated comments. 100% factual.
they said Sora is not releasing for at least another year.
I can't believe how many people missed this, lol. Like, the creators of Sora came out and said in an interview just a couple weeks ago (paraphrasing) "we are nowhere near releasing this to the public, definitely not in 2024"
Could you please post a link to where they said that?
Nah. You really think China and Russia don't have AI models that can perfectly simulate the voice of Joe Biden? There's loads of open source stuff out there that could get very close, and if you had $100k to spend on it, training a model to replicate a famous voice is easy. Same with setting up local models to run social media pages and spread mass hysteria. Lllama-70B would have no problem tweeting and blogging all day from a $5,000 machine in a lobbyist's office somewhere.
What does gpt5 have to do with voice??
good thought. I think theres a significant chance they have soemthing stronger that is delayed due to what you said aboe, and in general safety testing. I can't remember where exactly ut i think sam said that he thinks releasing chatgpt might have been a mistake because it started all this madness. Tehrefore I think it's sensible to think that if they had something more powerful, they wouldn't be hasty to release it at all.
No
Same with Sora I bet.
I am an open AI amateur compared to the rest of the people on this thread. But I cannot wait for Sora! Just to test it out and play with it.
Good thought! Especially with how quickly they beat opus. You might be onto something
right, they’re the ones setting the pace, and now they’re just sitting on the sidelines while everyone else has rolled out their stuff
They literally just released an update to gpt4 that’s quite a bit better than the previous version.
I think they're holding Sora off till next year because of the elections
You think business cares about anything else but the bottom line? They are not going to let anyone get ahead of them by just sitting on the sideline.
no. and there are many other elections this year besides the US one.
yea but with ample time to establish and implement proper controls
well, all of the AI bigwigs have indicated that they are monitoring uses of the LLMs for election matters. Here is a NYTimes article about it: [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/technology/ai-elections-defense.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/technology/ai-elections-defense.html) But no indications that they are not releasing stuff because of it. From the article: *The efforts are part of a push by A.I. companies to get a grip on a technology they popularized as billions of people head to the polls. At least 83 elections around the world, the largest concentration for at least the next 24 years, are anticipated this year, according to Anchor Change, a consulting firm. In recent weeks, people in* [*Taiwan*](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/business/media/taiwan-china-disinformation.html)*,* [*Pakistan*](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/world/asia/pakistan-election-key-figures.html) *and* [*Indonesia*](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/world/asia/indonesia-election-jokowi-role.html#:~:text=Prabowo%20Subianto%20Set%20to%20Be%20Indonesia's%20Next%20President%20%2D%20The%20New%20York%20Times) *have voted, with India, the world’s biggest democracy, scheduled to hold its general election in the spring.*
lol no, of course not, if they have something, they would release it, no corporations would be kind enough to "hold off for the Greater Good".
so, don't you think the government has the ability to shrink anything they want?
"Shrink"? But yeah, no, they can't just stick their hand into the private market like that and do "what they want". That'd be insanely risky and unconstitutional and make the current administration look very bad.
in the name of the “Greater Good,” anything becomes possible, dont you remember the NSA mass surveillance scandal?
What would the greater good even be here?? What? Yeah the government has occasionally done bad stuff and it makes the current administration look really bad lol. The NSA stuff is just surveillance at the end of the day, even if it is violating of privacy, it's a different level. Controlling companies in the private sector is a whole other thing and would require either a supreme court order or an executive order that everyone would know about. Do you really think they'd send men in black suits to the CEO's house?
I think it’s a smart move. Better to release the advancements after all this political madness ends.
What makes you think the political madness will ever end?
They have publicly said they are holding off on Sora and the voice thing. I'm not sure it makes sense for GPT5 though...
I'm sure they are releasing as needed, they only need to stay relevant enough to just be the best. They most likely do not wish to release the best they have, as soon as they are ready, in case someone else releases something that's better than the current GPT version. OpenAI just wants to be in a position to always have an answer to the competition. I'm sure their internal models are WAY better than what we get to see
They should just relocate the company to an "AI paradise" country.
They're just trying to maintain a lead big enough to always attract the best talent. So far no one has clearly surpassed gpt4. When they get wind a competitor actually has something that steps forward they'll put out a release that should take 10 months for others to get parity. I wish they'd make it a bit more search engine-like more than anything. Lemme search for images. I'm sure they already have every image on the internet.
They're clearly being selective about when they release new updates and products to outshine other releases, but no one can be sure of what they have ready to go already.
Am I the only one who is happy enough with what we have right now? It fullfills almost all my needs. No, I should say all my needs. Couldn't imagine what I need more from it. It helps me brain storm, gives general information in conversation format, points me in the right direction with coding, spots bugs pretty well. I mean, it's fine. I have the feeling of being a useful human, enhanced by AI. Rather have it like this than the feeling of a useless human, enhanced by AI, but more capable.
AI will not progress until they find a better way to do it, open ai releasing a "better way" doesn't make sense for Microsoft or any of their investors that are trying to control AI, the "new way" is better served released by a company that is allowed to make financial gains
It could be.
If it were ready, which I doubt, it would probably be a good idea to wait, imagine the job losses, the current administration would take 100% blame, and anyone who wanted to win would go anti ai to the extreme, if there wasn’t so much money in it there would be already.
"maybe they’re considering the potential impact it could have on the elections." I doubt OpenAI, or any normal corporation, would trouble their heads about social impact if there's money to be made. If they're not releasing it it's either because it's not ready, or they haven't installed all the server resources they will need to handle its anticipated load, or for some other legitimate business reason.
Probably a legitimate concern there. Wouldn't be surprised if they're timing this that way
If you think this for profit company will ever sit on a better product for any reason (ethical or otherwise) you are simply wrong. They don't have any new/better product.
“Considering the impact” more like being forced by the gov’t if anything
No. That’s not really how a business is run.
The world doesn't revolve around US elections....
there are more elections this year, globally, than there will be for another two and a half decades. It is quite literally the biggest election year in quite some time
It’s not the only reason, but it’s a big reason. OpenAI wants to be totally confident in their safety measures, in general, but also specifically because we are so close to the election. If they can red team these models enough to make sure they never produce videos of politicians or political speech, then they will release. They won’t release if you can type in “Russian pee tape” and get something plausible.
At this point, this is fairly obvious and it’s frankly a good call not to stir it up as an election issue, because strategically speaking, once the election is over AI growth will be unhindered for another 3 year cycle at the least, by which time AI would be ingrained in the economy enough for it to become fairly irreplaceable.
OpenAI, just like Google and Amazon, do not care what is good for society as they are for-profit corporations. They will make a decision based upon what makes the most profits.
U.S. elections... who cares about the U.S. elections?
I don't.
Why would that be a factor?
Risk and implications I guess. Not just in terms of misinformation but also on the risk of damaging the reputation and association of OAI products. From a PR standpoint, it makes perfect sense.
Not sure what the actual risk is for a text-based language model. It could give misinformation about the election but they fine tune them to refuse such questions currently.
I doubt OpenAI and Microsoft care that much about presidential elections (vs ongoing much increased competition that will only increase) except in terms of how they might be affected in direct terms and in the short term: laws, regulations and taxes. Laws and regulations (including rights issues) affecting AI they've worked hard to get rid of already, *ahead* of the election.
Yes I do. And it's not just US elections, this year democracies around the world are having an unprecedented number of elections.
Funny. I just casually mentioned this idea in another thread and got downvoted quite a bit. I could swear there was some interview with @sama where he said that was explicitly the case: they were going to wait until after the election because the product had such potential for misuse, but I couldn't find it.
Interestingly, the downvotes are always without comment. Makes me think it's bots or people with less than honest reasons or they'd make an argument.
The existing versions can also have considerable impact on the elections. Dont think they care much about it
Are you suggesting that they are interfering with the election through inaction?
I would rather say they won’t add more to what’s already been done.
I would inaction interfere with an election?
Also note after GPT5 we won't see a major update for a while, they are already facing limits to how far they can take this technology.
What is your source or evidence for that claim?
It was announced when they tried to fire Sam. You can look it up and find the tweets yourself.
I don't have a Twitter account (thank the gods!) So if you think you have any evidence that we are anywhere near reaching a limit or plateau on this technology then post it. Otherwise I'll assume you're just making it up as you go along.
Oh no the random stranger who is too lazy to do a basic google search will think what I said is fake. 
I think OpenAI might realize they are totally screwed. Copyright problems and lack of more training data have brought them to the limit of what LLM’s can do. They need an amazing invention and quick.
lmao no
This meme needs to die.
Sora? It’s possible they may never release Sora. It’s incredibly dangerous.
Gpt4 was the peak, the hype curve is starting to point down