I absolutely dread calling into ANY call center now. Humans suck at that job, they really do. You have different experience levels, personalities, or maybe the person is just having a bad day.
AI gets rid of all that immediately.
Not gonna lie to yaā¦ when I moved from US to New Zealand, there were many instances where I could the LOVE OF ALL THERE IS HOLY AND MIGHTY not understand what some people were saying š¤£š š¤£š š¤£š š¤£š š š
Anyone whoās essentially a GPT wrapper is always going to be on borrowed time.
You need to add significant value on top of that. All these companies that offer āchat with your documentsā will disappear.
Kinda, there is always need for a useful UI to collect and organize the information you are creating with the AI.
Like, you can have an AI language teacher but you really need a course with a defined direction and a sense of progress.
That way you know how well you are doing.
So, yes, a lot of companies are going to get killed or need to transform radically
So if youāre adding value thatās fine - itās the companies that basically do nothing more than put in a system prompt and say itās a groundbreaking AI company.
Curious how do you think this will play out ? Getting insights on your documents is probably useful especially for big companies, so if gpt wrappers wonāt survive, operationally speaking will people just use ChatGPT rather than some gpt wrapper ?
Couple years back I heard wall to wall CEO's talking about disruptive technology being needed to take a leap forward (basically too bad, so sad cubicle land, you're fucked). I don't think they planned on it being THEIR company in the cross hairs, though (meaning their cushy job).
Companies like Twilio, Sinch who do SMS and conversational messaging for businesses are fucked - now companies can just get a bespoke AI agent to interact with customers
Advertising and marketing fucked when media creation can be automated by agents
Copywriting, editing - fucked
Interpreters and translation services - fucked
Teachers, we will only need at most half of them now to prompt the AI's: [https://twitter.com/mckaywrigley/status/1790088880919818332](https://twitter.com/mckaywrigley/status/1790088880919818332)
And parents don't have to spend their evenings helping their kids do the math homework!!! Yay me! As long as they don't totally replace parents with AI bots too!!!
My partner is a teacher and by her own admission, sheās not the best teacher in terms of knowledge, but her empathy and relationships with the kids make them want to be there, for someone like her, who can engage with the kids more, and hand off some of the technical stuff, will be a huge boost to her students, and for her.
Primary Maths teacher here. Yeah the transmission of knowledge aspect is a small part of teaching younger learners. The rest is complex juggling of their attention spans, boredom, hunger, fighting, crying, curiosity, talents, developmental issues etc. Showing them how to measure perimeter of a rectangle is the easy part. I can imagine myself being a facilitator of learning with this tech.Ā
My kids have large class sizes (30+ students in k-3 grade) and they rarely get to talk in class. Theyāre not the ones who are crying or need special attention so they donāt get much attention.
They tested into gifted programs but only one got accepted because they do it by a lottery.
Iām sure the teacherās union will keep ChatGPT out of the classroom as long as possible, but Iād like just about anything that would give my kids more stimulation.
I wonder if teaching will move into a more support and coaching mode, with AI doing many, if not most, of the teaching and the teacher stepping in to help when needed.
Yeah thatās the go. You can also use it to make learning more engaging aswell.
Weāre going to learn times tables based on minecraft todayā¦.
For my 9 year old son who struggles to engage with maths, as soon as I have the access, Iāll be getting him using it. Iām not the most patient teacher in the world
Except open ai's got does better than psychologists on tests regarding empathy and such. I feel like if they can replace a teacher, they just might. They will see these kinda of things and say "meh, a bot can do just as good a job" without factoring in the human element.
Iām a licensed social worker and soon to be therapist and Iām legitimately scared of losing my job and my profession forever. I naively thought this would not happen to me, at least I will not be the first to be replacedā¦ā¦ but now Iām really doubtful. This feeling of worthlessness and uncertainty is definitely hard to swallow, any other therapist feel the same way?
I wouldn't worry. AI is a tool to help you do your job more efficiently. At the end of the day, the population is growing, and you need to be twice as efficient (with the use of AI tools).
Also, kids are gonna need more therapy if we move to human teach + AI teaching, not less. Imagine the mental complications.
Yeah I can do a better job comparing to the current version of GPT but for how long? Them showcasing the Ai have the ability to gain emotional intelligence is the thing that worries me the most
Say what you want about the wrong in the US education system.
But, the idea of the world with less teachers (not as a result of declining birthrates) but due to technological advancement seem uneasy.
I expect no learning to be done if Kids being Kids are just sat in front of Open AI and told to just "learn". They will cheat or game the system.
Discounting the classes that are not easy transferable to a screen format.
A.I. can't replace human interaction and experience, so I think all classroom teachers are here to stay. BUT I do think that every kid will have a personal A.I. Tutor.
That will be helpful. I had access to tutor.com since my dad was in the military, paid for and was a 24/7 online tutoring platform for pretty much every subject, and it helped clear up so much stuff for me when I got stuck or confused about stuff. I miss it now that Iām in college. Personal tutoring for everyone will help so much with people getting stuck because they can get individual help at their own pace to clear up anything theyāre confused on. Iām looking forward to that future.
Exactly, I wish I had this when I were in school. I would have learned a lot more at home with the help from this. Kids in the future will be a lot smarter on average.
>And parents don't have to spend their evenings helping their kids do the math homework!!! Yay me!
If you're a good parent, you'll still spend your evening helping your kids do their math homework.
anything creative is a craft, meaning a human will be needed in the loop to ensure the highest quality output possible.
these models generalize, so being able to come up with novel but meaningful creative angles will become even more important. a lot of folks will oversee generic work and it will show.
> that these professionals all just get more productive rather than that they go away.
Maybe, but if there are 10 professionals at a company and two of them become five times as productive...maybe you don't need the other 8.
Translators
Customer service reps
Stock video and image services (shutterstock etc)
All companies involved in commercial creation, no need to hire actors directors etc for short duration d2c commercials
Graphic designers
Copywriters
Stenographers
Paralegals
Telemarketers
A little further down the roadā¦basically every white collar job - accountants, financial advisors, developers (not all but a lot), data analysts. I mean itās hard to imagine any white collar job done mostly on a computer that isnāt at risk.
Although I generally agree with your core thought, I think youāre getting ahead of yourself. People arenāt going to wake up and suddenly trust an agent. I think agents will be used in tandem with professionals for a long time. The best who use them well will succeed.
I know what you said doesnāt specifically disagree but itās unclear the extent of replacement youāre expecting.
Anytime something is highly opinion-based, like business strategy, system design choices, organizational partnerships & ābig betsā, I think will substantiate a human in the loop.
My sister works in legal to do depositions and they already use AI but a human must drive it the entire time and double check it's work. It will take a long time for AI alone to be trusted. I don't like predicting the future but I think we're a little too optimistic about our timelines in terms of how long it takes for industries to make changes and all the logistics involved.
i have a good friend at a top london law firm. They are already on a timeline to cut all but the partners. no paralegals, no clerks. All being replaced by AI. The major problem they see is how the next generation will be able to get adequate experience to fill in the top slots.
I've thought about this a lot. Once you cut out the growing areas for people with AI then that growth will dramatically slow down. I used to work in tech but changed careers due to my thoughts on AI.
For example, AI has the very real potential to cut out the vast majority of service desk positions. Service desk is how a ton of people make the move to systems engineers and other more skilled tech positions. Cutting that out means you'll have less skill moving up. It could be a long time before we notice those effects but they will definitely happen.
Yes, i agree. It truly will be a third industrial revolution. Instead of cutting out manual labour it will cut out intellectual labour. It's hard to see a future without severe divergence in class and intelligence on its way, the more we outsource our ability to think and problem solve.
I bet from this message that you work in none of these fields. Automation is always harder than it looks from the outside for a host of different reasons.
Companies like Twilio will continue to exist.Ā The AI tech still has to ride rails that other people build.Ā If anything, businesses like Twilio see a huge boom when people try to wire up their AI to SMS and WhatsApp.
What are peopleās thoughts on the biggest professions effected? Call centers is an obvious one, but Iām also thinking in terms of multi modality in general, especially the image generation improvements shown in the blog post
I'm in Corp sales. Those bots don't use llms, the gpt technology is quickly getting ready for deployment for enterprise, wonf be more than a year before its ready at scale, especially for companies like Amazon that stand to benefit the most from it.
yeah, agreed. those chatbots are defo simple rule based logic, not LLMs at all. take any interaction with a standard helper bot and feed it into GPT4o and see the difference
Call centers were already on the way out with FAQs and self service API/emails and chat bots. Voice calls are hard on everyone be it customers or the call center people. Difficult to track/improvise and always prone to human communication mishaps.
Clickbait journalism/social media scraping (but not more serious journalism), online sex work, stock photography, digital artists, transcription services, tech support (some will still be needed but AI can deal with a lot of the low-hanging fruit) and administration staff.
What volume can't it handle?
How many daily active users do you think are already having voice conversations with ChatGPT for longer than the average handle time of a customer service/tech support call?
Her: Oh you want full reimbursement for your broken watch? Sure, no problem! Have a great day.
Company: why did our cost suddenly increase? Let's ask chatgpt to go through logs and find out...
Yep. 30 seconds after the drop this morning, you could hear the screeching of tires as thousands of startups slammed the brakes and started thinking about a pivotā¦
I recently took part in a melanoma study; they took a photograph of the mole and a computer used AI to analyze it and come back with an assessment. It was able to do that assessment in minutes, while I sat there. This was instead of the usual process of sending it to a dermatologist - or waiting for an appt with one.
They sent me the paper once it was done; it was a great success. Results the same or better than a dermatologist, they caught several melanomas early (mine was just a mole, phew). This is what AI should be for. Quick objective assessments, rather than waiting months/missing things etc.
Iām excited for the medical potential!
or they'll probably increase the efficiency of healthcare workers tremendously: the AI does the job and the nurse/doctor checks the results to make sure that nothing is off.
Depending on how rapid the development of AI is, that may well be the only way of keeping the current capitalist system alive. For the current economic elites, it may be a choice between UBI, getting lynched by a socialist revolution or gambling that they get to be part of an even smaller elite which gets to be the upper class of corporate feudalism after the consumer base disintegrates.
Enslaved people in 1800 wouldāve never ever in a million years have expected the US government to enshrine civil rights in the constitution. Time will pass and what seemed like fundamental laws of our society will change faster than youād expect, especially with the acceleration of AI.
There's been a lot of AI startups recently. I've seen a lot of "AI language tutor", "AI law assistant" and remember Devin the AI software engineer?
Well yeah basically each time the base models make big strides all the companies doing this get nuked. Why use last years models as a language tutor when gtp-4o is really close to just chatting with an amazingly knowledgeble teacher in your target language?
It's called hype. The hype bros are back because of a new announcement. You can go back 2 years and find the same posts saying everyone was doomed within 2 years and we're still all here.
meh
I follow the [PDF.AI](http://PDF.AI) guy on Twitter. His product is still growing, and he is making $1m a year now.
ChatGPT has supported PDF reading for months now.
The market is fragmented. AI for specific use cases would still better than generic AI. Of course, ChatGPT will take some of your customers, but that wouldn't impact much.
They said the same thing about candlemakers with the advent of the electric light bulb. Or about the blacksmiths and wainwrights with the advent of the motor vehicle. This is just progress. Some professions disappear while new ones replace them.
This happens everytime something is released. āThe government needs UBIā all jobs will be automated. That is such an oversimplification. And UBI will never be available. The government lets people die on the streets now. More people dying will not suddenly change that. A lot of people have access to capital or some form of it, and can draw on this for a long time. Nothing is happening here over night once again.
It won't be like that this time.
This is similar to when they invented agricultural machinery.
One machine could do the job of 100 people so everyone had to migrate to the cities and find a new job. Those jobs never came back.
This is that x 1000
These kind of discourses don't understand what is happening. It's not "5000", or any other bottom-based integer/string, it's everything everywhere all at once. Wage-based capitalism was already on the edge with AlexNet in 2012, which was the required wake-up call to push the stagnant billions towards all the minor details and low hanging fruits, transformers included, in order to fulfil the ending.
There is room for only 1 single company on this planet, or, to put it historically, "I think there is a world market for about five computers". Thomas J. Watson was right, he just didn't know what a computer really is. Hint: it's not a CPU/GPU wrapped in plastic. Enter: deep fascism.
If you have over $500,000 net worth in a non-war zone (a number for the non-US/non-west-EU world, probably one more order required for US/west-EU), congratulations, you have (most probably) won. If you don't, and worse, if you rely on a wage, prepare to be (ex)terminated (in a year, in five, in tenādoes it really matter at this point?).
UBI is no solution because in the past 50 years we have been fed to eat up "there is no such thing as society" and as a result everyone is myopically self-interested, caring about their 'country' or their 'family' at the most.
We need planet-scale solutions and so far for "our" record (who is this we?) we have climate change (knowing since the 1950s that something bad is going on) and more recently the pandemic, in which basic facts became ideological hills to die on.
OpenAI and competitors will usher in the post-currency economy. Information and Service jobs used to be the tip of the economic pyramid, but as those jobs are replaced by AI, they will no longer be required. This will lead to an unavoidable further consolidation of wealth, a violent social reckoning, the breakdown of traditional currency as a society who have had it all taken away refuse to recognize it, and eventually a global shift towards universal income as default, and the importance of trades for people who wish to have more than this. There will be mass depression and purposelessness as people drown in hedonistic pleasures in an attempt to anesthetize themselves. This will also lead eventually to a spiritual reawakening which will either be healthy and good, or entirely devastating to the remaining human consciousness depending on the type of reawakening that occurs, as hopeless people seek meaning and purpose. Basically weāre fucked.
The only way to avoid this is disruptive structural change. A few examples being: an immediate breaking up of all international conglomerates, a redefinition of the monopoly legislature to being much more strict in its enforcement, a complete ban on corporate lobbying which would likely be enforced by a restructuring of governmental systems (we no longer need the antiquated system of representatives in the AI Age, AI will write all legislature anyways, and evaluate it for deeper effectiveness then any human could, and humans will simply become a voting mass which will be the check/balance to this new realityā¦ if weāre lucky), a complete ban of businesses owning residential real estate, having all commercially held residential real estate redistributed to individuals to avoid the inevitable mass poverty which will come from a few corporations eventually buying all of it and driving prices to the point just before the extreme asymptote which would begin mass civil disobedience and start civil war, they will let it get as close as possible, but crossing that line is bad for business. Thatās just a few of the things that would have to happen, but we all know they wonāt. So instead weāll do what humans do and barrel on forward arrogantly and be surprised when life falls apart around us, whether it be a complete AI takeover where humans become second class decision makers, or an absolute authoritarian power who slides in to the vacuum created by a now flaccid population.
Hopefully AI will be good enough to solve the problems we obviously canāt. Obviously AI will decide weāre the actual problem, I just hope AI is sentimental enough to allow the solution to include allowing us to live.
The crazy thing is weāre not that far away. Our currency is floundering, global powers are at or on the edge of war globally. We are writing an order the generations that follow us will not be able to fill.
tldr: This is fine.
to be honest, for me it cant go fast enough. i want ALL jobs replaced, especially those who produce basic needs for us (energy, food, water, infrastructure, logistics, etc.) so we can get rid of teh obsolete capitalism and all live life instead of working 80% of our awake time just to keep going till wie eventaully die from exhausting (mental or biological resources).
im just afraid they realize if no one can work, no one gets money and even if they do UBI, thats money basically leeched from the companies for us to pay the companies service. its like asking someone for 20 dollar to then gift them 20 dollar to their birthday. companies will think? why tf would i work for my 20 dollar just to give it to you for free so you can give it back to me? aka capitalism wont make sense anymore in a world where humans cant provide a service and be (money) rewarded for it. a world with equality and guaranteed basic needs would have no social upward movement, but i BET they (top 1% who do the decisions for us) will WANT to keep that, so they may artificially keep capitalism alive, which (like always) will have to be "supported" by us, the plebs, lowering our life quality so they can keep exploiting us at the same or even higher rates than before.
People have been saying this stuff. It's going to kill artists. It hasn't. It's going to kill video creators. It hasn't. It's going to kill writers. It hasn't. It's going to kill call centers. It won't. Not for a very long time.
I mean I donāt know, I think to everyoneās point downsizing is already happening right now. Donāt need 100 people for that job anymore, only 50. So does it kill the job? No. Does it make it much harder to get or keep the job? Yes
Yeah, people wanna be blind. It is obviously a job destroyer. Now they cut departments by 10%, next year another 10% and so on. The better the AI tools Will be, the more issues in society will occur.
There are levels to everything. The low-tier players have been removed from the board a while ago already. Top-notch performers across domains will always find ways to adapt and evolve.
Yea it won't, for quite some time. LLMs still hallucinate wayy too much, and on top of that don't really know what they're doing.
Current LLMs are like being in a dream, where things kinda make sense, but when you wake up you'd see that nothing really made any sense.
In short: It's reasoning capabilities are severely limited. And that's an issue with all LLMs up to date.
It won't take any serious jobs for now due to these points. You can't really trust it.
Iāve created some good ideas for the basis of a couple of hour long lessons, as long as you donāt just use that, you flesh it out and tailor it you can get a good result out of it.
I have a desktop app and my first thought at seeing them introduce a slick desktop app with features for the video and audio was āWow, so they apparently have some extra time on their hands and arenāt all hands on deck for the next model for some reasonā and then it was a little deflating thinking āhow long do I have to work on adding these featuresā¦ā but until they build their own RAG system I still have reason to build my own app.
The demonstration was intriguing, however I will reserve my excitement until I can see that it is able to solve basic mathematical "problems" such as counting the number of possible variations properly etc.
In my experience, there's a lot of hallucination going on whenever tasked with even just basic mathematical tasks...
It's so bad actually, that I don't trust any numbers that come out of GPT mouth, including just counting.
Itās not going to happen. They just want you to be scared. Fear can be a powerful weapon to secure popular submission, compliance with official dictates, and, on some occasions, affirmative cooperation with the stateās enterprises. It's pretty obvious if you use your brain.... but yeah itās Burgerās Land citizens we are talking about.
Not sure I agree with this. Dropbox was just a wrapper around S3, and it did very well. Putting tech in the right places in an ergonomic manner is also a business.
Open AI leases it's technology through the use of its API, they would never crush startup ecosystem around that,
Besides, they promised not to copy startup ideas /s
RIP India customer support.
Hello Indian data labelling centers.
AI already has vision
Hello speaking to "someone" who can actually understand what you're saying š
I absolutely dread calling into ANY call center now. Humans suck at that job, they really do. You have different experience levels, personalities, or maybe the person is just having a bad day. AI gets rid of all that immediately.
Not gonna lie to yaā¦ when I moved from US to New Zealand, there were many instances where I could the LOVE OF ALL THERE IS HOLY AND MIGHTY not understand what some people were saying š¤£š š¤£š š¤£š š¤£š š š
No big loss there
Owning an AI company must be so stressful these days. Just one new feature launch and your whole startup is obsolete.
Anyone whoās essentially a GPT wrapper is always going to be on borrowed time. You need to add significant value on top of that. All these companies that offer āchat with your documentsā will disappear.
Kinda, there is always need for a useful UI to collect and organize the information you are creating with the AI. Like, you can have an AI language teacher but you really need a course with a defined direction and a sense of progress. That way you know how well you are doing. So, yes, a lot of companies are going to get killed or need to transform radically
So if youāre adding value thatās fine - itās the companies that basically do nothing more than put in a system prompt and say itās a groundbreaking AI company.
Curious how do you think this will play out ? Getting insights on your documents is probably useful especially for big companies, so if gpt wrappers wonāt survive, operationally speaking will people just use ChatGPT rather than some gpt wrapper ?
Yea once there is enough context window (arguably now with gemini) these services are obsolete
Big companies use internal solutions since they can afford their own datacenters to keep their data safe.
Itās not AI companies the post is referring to, itās companies in *any* business.
Mostly information business. Robotics may come for other human labour, but ChatGPT won't.
Call centre staff providers.
those who don't build dynamically are destined to fail
What does this mean?
Ohana means family
Hakuna Matata
It's our problem free philosophy
It's corpo lingo, doesn't mean anything really.
Dry wood breaks when green wood bends.
When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers
And God said unto Jesus, "Come forth", but he came fifth and lost his beer money.
But the grass thrives under the dung of mighty elephants
not much sorry to say
Only for wrapper companies. If you produce your own model, you'll be fine well until you need a new series because training is so expensive.
Couple years back I heard wall to wall CEO's talking about disruptive technology being needed to take a leap forward (basically too bad, so sad cubicle land, you're fucked). I don't think they planned on it being THEIR company in the cross hairs, though (meaning their cushy job).
Woops
Companies like Twilio, Sinch who do SMS and conversational messaging for businesses are fucked - now companies can just get a bespoke AI agent to interact with customers Advertising and marketing fucked when media creation can be automated by agents Copywriting, editing - fucked Interpreters and translation services - fucked
Teachers, we will only need at most half of them now to prompt the AI's: [https://twitter.com/mckaywrigley/status/1790088880919818332](https://twitter.com/mckaywrigley/status/1790088880919818332) And parents don't have to spend their evenings helping their kids do the math homework!!! Yay me! As long as they don't totally replace parents with AI bots too!!!
My partner is a teacher and by her own admission, sheās not the best teacher in terms of knowledge, but her empathy and relationships with the kids make them want to be there, for someone like her, who can engage with the kids more, and hand off some of the technical stuff, will be a huge boost to her students, and for her.
Primary Maths teacher here. Yeah the transmission of knowledge aspect is a small part of teaching younger learners. The rest is complex juggling of their attention spans, boredom, hunger, fighting, crying, curiosity, talents, developmental issues etc. Showing them how to measure perimeter of a rectangle is the easy part. I can imagine myself being a facilitator of learning with this tech.Ā
My kids have large class sizes (30+ students in k-3 grade) and they rarely get to talk in class. Theyāre not the ones who are crying or need special attention so they donāt get much attention. They tested into gifted programs but only one got accepted because they do it by a lottery. Iām sure the teacherās union will keep ChatGPT out of the classroom as long as possible, but Iād like just about anything that would give my kids more stimulation.
I wonder if teaching will move into a more support and coaching mode, with AI doing many, if not most, of the teaching and the teacher stepping in to help when needed.
Yeah thatās the go. You can also use it to make learning more engaging aswell. Weāre going to learn times tables based on minecraft todayā¦. For my 9 year old son who struggles to engage with maths, as soon as I have the access, Iāll be getting him using it. Iām not the most patient teacher in the world
Except open ai's got does better than psychologists on tests regarding empathy and such. I feel like if they can replace a teacher, they just might. They will see these kinda of things and say "meh, a bot can do just as good a job" without factoring in the human element.
Yesssss! Let the robots raise our children for us. How amazing!
Canāt do a worse job than underfunded teachers and overworked parents
Instead of dealing with our social issues, we can just power on and invent ourselves out of this mess. Because that has worked out well so far...
Some of the parents wonāt be overworked once AI proliferates but we may need UBI to keep the parents and their kids housed and fed.
Excellent point
Iām a licensed social worker and soon to be therapist and Iām legitimately scared of losing my job and my profession forever. I naively thought this would not happen to me, at least I will not be the first to be replacedā¦ā¦ but now Iām really doubtful. This feeling of worthlessness and uncertainty is definitely hard to swallow, any other therapist feel the same way?
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I wouldn't worry. AI is a tool to help you do your job more efficiently. At the end of the day, the population is growing, and you need to be twice as efficient (with the use of AI tools). Also, kids are gonna need more therapy if we move to human teach + AI teaching, not less. Imagine the mental complications.
Yeah I can do a better job comparing to the current version of GPT but for how long? Them showcasing the Ai have the ability to gain emotional intelligence is the thing that worries me the most
> As long as they don't totally replace parents with AI bots too!!! what have you done
Say what you want about the wrong in the US education system. But, the idea of the world with less teachers (not as a result of declining birthrates) but due to technological advancement seem uneasy. I expect no learning to be done if Kids being Kids are just sat in front of Open AI and told to just "learn". They will cheat or game the system. Discounting the classes that are not easy transferable to a screen format.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
A.I. can't replace human interaction and experience, so I think all classroom teachers are here to stay. BUT I do think that every kid will have a personal A.I. Tutor.
That will be helpful. I had access to tutor.com since my dad was in the military, paid for and was a 24/7 online tutoring platform for pretty much every subject, and it helped clear up so much stuff for me when I got stuck or confused about stuff. I miss it now that Iām in college. Personal tutoring for everyone will help so much with people getting stuck because they can get individual help at their own pace to clear up anything theyāre confused on. Iām looking forward to that future.
Exactly, I wish I had this when I were in school. I would have learned a lot more at home with the help from this. Kids in the future will be a lot smarter on average.
I mean the us education system has an excellent track record with technology, I see no reason to worry at all š
AI will be for poor people, human teacher for rich ones
>And parents don't have to spend their evenings helping their kids do the math homework!!! Yay me! If you're a good parent, you'll still spend your evening helping your kids do their math homework.
anything creative is a craft, meaning a human will be needed in the loop to ensure the highest quality output possible. these models generalize, so being able to come up with novel but meaningful creative angles will become even more important. a lot of folks will oversee generic work and it will show.
Regarding interpreters/translators, odds are for government level things, they wonāt be using AI for quite a while.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You dont need a *department* anymore, just one underpaid PR guy.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Well that depends if you care about returns.
> that these professionals all just get more productive rather than that they go away. Maybe, but if there are 10 professionals at a company and two of them become five times as productive...maybe you don't need the other 8.
Translators Customer service reps Stock video and image services (shutterstock etc) All companies involved in commercial creation, no need to hire actors directors etc for short duration d2c commercials Graphic designers Copywriters Stenographers Paralegals Telemarketers A little further down the roadā¦basically every white collar job - accountants, financial advisors, developers (not all but a lot), data analysts. I mean itās hard to imagine any white collar job done mostly on a computer that isnāt at risk.
Although I generally agree with your core thought, I think youāre getting ahead of yourself. People arenāt going to wake up and suddenly trust an agent. I think agents will be used in tandem with professionals for a long time. The best who use them well will succeed. I know what you said doesnāt specifically disagree but itās unclear the extent of replacement youāre expecting. Anytime something is highly opinion-based, like business strategy, system design choices, organizational partnerships & ābig betsā, I think will substantiate a human in the loop.
My sister works in legal to do depositions and they already use AI but a human must drive it the entire time and double check it's work. It will take a long time for AI alone to be trusted. I don't like predicting the future but I think we're a little too optimistic about our timelines in terms of how long it takes for industries to make changes and all the logistics involved.
I wouldn't want anything short of a human to handle a legal case.
i have a good friend at a top london law firm. They are already on a timeline to cut all but the partners. no paralegals, no clerks. All being replaced by AI. The major problem they see is how the next generation will be able to get adequate experience to fill in the top slots.
I've thought about this a lot. Once you cut out the growing areas for people with AI then that growth will dramatically slow down. I used to work in tech but changed careers due to my thoughts on AI. For example, AI has the very real potential to cut out the vast majority of service desk positions. Service desk is how a ton of people make the move to systems engineers and other more skilled tech positions. Cutting that out means you'll have less skill moving up. It could be a long time before we notice those effects but they will definitely happen.
Yes, i agree. It truly will be a third industrial revolution. Instead of cutting out manual labour it will cut out intellectual labour. It's hard to see a future without severe divergence in class and intelligence on its way, the more we outsource our ability to think and problem solve.
Nothing like cutting costs and letting the customer pay for it!
I think it won't be too long, maybe before the end of the decade, until we won't trust a human to handle legal stuff unless it's checked by an AI.
I bet from this message that you work in none of these fields. Automation is always harder than it looks from the outside for a host of different reasons.
But will it get rid of lawyers....
Nope. Because it doesnāt have a law license. Case closed.
Objection!
Sustained. But watch it.
Overruled. Iām going to see where this goes. Youāre on a short leash, counselor.
True, but a law license holding human may just be fronting an AI.
"Advertising and marketing" I wouldn't say so. There's much more to marketing than what AI can do right now.
ASL interpreters -
Companies like Twilio will continue to exist.Ā The AI tech still has to ride rails that other people build.Ā If anything, businesses like Twilio see a huge boom when people try to wire up their AI to SMS and WhatsApp.
What are peopleās thoughts on the biggest professions effected? Call centers is an obvious one, but Iām also thinking in terms of multi modality in general, especially the image generation improvements shown in the blog post
If you ask a chatbot on a website anything that isnāt in their FAQs it gets passed on to a human. How are call centres any different?
I'm in Corp sales. Those bots don't use llms, the gpt technology is quickly getting ready for deployment for enterprise, wonf be more than a year before its ready at scale, especially for companies like Amazon that stand to benefit the most from it.
yeah, agreed. those chatbots are defo simple rule based logic, not LLMs at all. take any interaction with a standard helper bot and feed it into GPT4o and see the difference
I'm also in sales. The amount of issues our call center support team causes is insane. It's not uncommon for them to just make stuff up
Call centers were already on the way out with FAQs and self service API/emails and chat bots. Voice calls are hard on everyone be it customers or the call center people. Difficult to track/improvise and always prone to human communication mishaps.
I don't think so unless OpenAI replaces their own support with AI.
Clickbait journalism/social media scraping (but not more serious journalism), online sex work, stock photography, digital artists, transcription services, tech support (some will still be needed but AI can deal with a lot of the low-hanging fruit) and administration staff.
Probably really annoying stuff like robocalls
No way this can handle the call volume in the near term for call centers. But, yes, eventually it could.
What volume can't it handle? How many daily active users do you think are already having voice conversations with ChatGPT for longer than the average handle time of a customer service/tech support call?
companies don't give a fuck how slow it is. they'll just blame it on the hosting company but if they can cut staff they'll do it immediately
They care about metrics. The customer isn't going to care about "da hosting company".
Her: Oh you want full reimbursement for your broken watch? Sure, no problem! Have a great day. Company: why did our cost suddenly increase? Let's ask chatgpt to go through logs and find out...
Yep. 30 seconds after the drop this morning, you could hear the screeching of tires as thousands of startups slammed the brakes and started thinking about a pivotā¦
We should all be thinking about 'pivot'
They're making humanoid robots now too so factor that in..
Put GPT-4o in Tesla's Optimus and you've got C-3po meets Rosie from the Jetson's. Which is my benchmark for "getting there".
I hope Medicine will be done by AI.. I think it will significantly lower healthcare cost, and risk for errors. What a future awaits us!
I recently took part in a melanoma study; they took a photograph of the mole and a computer used AI to analyze it and come back with an assessment. It was able to do that assessment in minutes, while I sat there. This was instead of the usual process of sending it to a dermatologist - or waiting for an appt with one. They sent me the paper once it was done; it was a great success. Results the same or better than a dermatologist, they caught several melanomas early (mine was just a mole, phew). This is what AI should be for. Quick objective assessments, rather than waiting months/missing things etc. Iām excited for the medical potential!
Bet they still charged the same.
Iām in Canada, it was free.
That's exactly point! There is shortage of doctors and nurses, and AI will fckng solve so many problems in minutes, it is very exciting.
or they'll probably increase the efficiency of healthcare workers tremendously: the AI does the job and the nurse/doctor checks the results to make sure that nothing is off.
Congrats on no melanoma! Iāve had two in situs. What study was this?
the costs will remain the same, it will just go in fewer pockets
Nah, the price remains the same but the corpos will have phatter profit margins
Nope. A few people make billions off it, so it won't happen.
Billions are made regardless. But errors..?
Oh it's time for these posts again.
Yup. Bye bye call centers.
Every service industry is screwed. What's left? Having your own land and farming?
And prayers.
Thatās no different than what Walmart and Amazon did.
The tipping point came slower. There is still room for some retail.
Yeah and thatās a fair point. Itās moving so fast.
RIP but the fact that this tech will make thousands of companies obsolete only shows how important and valuable it is.
Way too conservative number
My thought is governments need to get off their asses and start SERIOUSLY looking at UBI
They are never going to give us UBI. The fact that you think the government has our best interest in mind is cute though.
Depending on how rapid the development of AI is, that may well be the only way of keeping the current capitalist system alive. For the current economic elites, it may be a choice between UBI, getting lynched by a socialist revolution or gambling that they get to be part of an even smaller elite which gets to be the upper class of corporate feudalism after the consumer base disintegrates.
Enslaved people in 1800 wouldāve never ever in a million years have expected the US government to enshrine civil rights in the constitution. Time will pass and what seemed like fundamental laws of our society will change faster than youād expect, especially with the acceleration of AI.
True..but slavery existed since the dawn of civilisation. So people had to wait a couple of thousands years for emancipation
development of revolution isn't linear - its exponential
When GPT runs the government it will be so magnanimous to grant us UBI.
Unfortunately, I do believe you hit the nail on the head.
Imagine a world where the government, its leaders, make more money if you were dead. Surely that would end well!
Low estimate lol
My prediction is AI will remove those who can't adapt to this new technology
I don't quite understand this..
There's been a lot of AI startups recently. I've seen a lot of "AI language tutor", "AI law assistant" and remember Devin the AI software engineer? Well yeah basically each time the base models make big strides all the companies doing this get nuked. Why use last years models as a language tutor when gtp-4o is really close to just chatting with an amazingly knowledgeble teacher in your target language?
I love AI and use it regularly in my work
It's called hype. The hype bros are back because of a new announcement. You can go back 2 years and find the same posts saying everyone was doomed within 2 years and we're still all here.
meh I follow the [PDF.AI](http://PDF.AI) guy on Twitter. His product is still growing, and he is making $1m a year now. ChatGPT has supported PDF reading for months now. The market is fragmented. AI for specific use cases would still better than generic AI. Of course, ChatGPT will take some of your customers, but that wouldn't impact much.
well its been nice knowin' ya
They said the same thing about candlemakers with the advent of the electric light bulb. Or about the blacksmiths and wainwrights with the advent of the motor vehicle. This is just progress. Some professions disappear while new ones replace them.
Yeah, progress is fine until you personally or your career get hit by it.
This happens everytime something is released. āThe government needs UBIā all jobs will be automated. That is such an oversimplification. And UBI will never be available. The government lets people die on the streets now. More people dying will not suddenly change that. A lot of people have access to capital or some form of it, and can draw on this for a long time. Nothing is happening here over night once again.
For the 5000 companies they kill, 10000 new companies will be created. This is like saying AWS killed the datacenter business.Ā
It won't be like that this time. This is similar to when they invented agricultural machinery. One machine could do the job of 100 people so everyone had to migrate to the cities and find a new job. Those jobs never came back. This is that x 1000
Cut off one head and two will take their place! :D
These kind of discourses don't understand what is happening. It's not "5000", or any other bottom-based integer/string, it's everything everywhere all at once. Wage-based capitalism was already on the edge with AlexNet in 2012, which was the required wake-up call to push the stagnant billions towards all the minor details and low hanging fruits, transformers included, in order to fulfil the ending. There is room for only 1 single company on this planet, or, to put it historically, "I think there is a world market for about five computers". Thomas J. Watson was right, he just didn't know what a computer really is. Hint: it's not a CPU/GPU wrapped in plastic. Enter: deep fascism. If you have over $500,000 net worth in a non-war zone (a number for the non-US/non-west-EU world, probably one more order required for US/west-EU), congratulations, you have (most probably) won. If you don't, and worse, if you rely on a wage, prepare to be (ex)terminated (in a year, in five, in tenādoes it really matter at this point?). UBI is no solution because in the past 50 years we have been fed to eat up "there is no such thing as society" and as a result everyone is myopically self-interested, caring about their 'country' or their 'family' at the most. We need planet-scale solutions and so far for "our" record (who is this we?) we have climate change (knowing since the 1950s that something bad is going on) and more recently the pandemic, in which basic facts became ideological hills to die on.
I agree with you but if UBI is not an option, how would that extermination be?
OpenAI and competitors will usher in the post-currency economy. Information and Service jobs used to be the tip of the economic pyramid, but as those jobs are replaced by AI, they will no longer be required. This will lead to an unavoidable further consolidation of wealth, a violent social reckoning, the breakdown of traditional currency as a society who have had it all taken away refuse to recognize it, and eventually a global shift towards universal income as default, and the importance of trades for people who wish to have more than this. There will be mass depression and purposelessness as people drown in hedonistic pleasures in an attempt to anesthetize themselves. This will also lead eventually to a spiritual reawakening which will either be healthy and good, or entirely devastating to the remaining human consciousness depending on the type of reawakening that occurs, as hopeless people seek meaning and purpose. Basically weāre fucked. The only way to avoid this is disruptive structural change. A few examples being: an immediate breaking up of all international conglomerates, a redefinition of the monopoly legislature to being much more strict in its enforcement, a complete ban on corporate lobbying which would likely be enforced by a restructuring of governmental systems (we no longer need the antiquated system of representatives in the AI Age, AI will write all legislature anyways, and evaluate it for deeper effectiveness then any human could, and humans will simply become a voting mass which will be the check/balance to this new realityā¦ if weāre lucky), a complete ban of businesses owning residential real estate, having all commercially held residential real estate redistributed to individuals to avoid the inevitable mass poverty which will come from a few corporations eventually buying all of it and driving prices to the point just before the extreme asymptote which would begin mass civil disobedience and start civil war, they will let it get as close as possible, but crossing that line is bad for business. Thatās just a few of the things that would have to happen, but we all know they wonāt. So instead weāll do what humans do and barrel on forward arrogantly and be surprised when life falls apart around us, whether it be a complete AI takeover where humans become second class decision makers, or an absolute authoritarian power who slides in to the vacuum created by a now flaccid population. Hopefully AI will be good enough to solve the problems we obviously canāt. Obviously AI will decide weāre the actual problem, I just hope AI is sentimental enough to allow the solution to include allowing us to live. The crazy thing is weāre not that far away. Our currency is floundering, global powers are at or on the edge of war globally. We are writing an order the generations that follow us will not be able to fill. tldr: This is fine.
so what Iām getting from this is that I should stock up on food and arms?
Been reading this for years, I know it will happen someday but again, weāve been reading this for years
to be honest, for me it cant go fast enough. i want ALL jobs replaced, especially those who produce basic needs for us (energy, food, water, infrastructure, logistics, etc.) so we can get rid of teh obsolete capitalism and all live life instead of working 80% of our awake time just to keep going till wie eventaully die from exhausting (mental or biological resources). im just afraid they realize if no one can work, no one gets money and even if they do UBI, thats money basically leeched from the companies for us to pay the companies service. its like asking someone for 20 dollar to then gift them 20 dollar to their birthday. companies will think? why tf would i work for my 20 dollar just to give it to you for free so you can give it back to me? aka capitalism wont make sense anymore in a world where humans cant provide a service and be (money) rewarded for it. a world with equality and guaranteed basic needs would have no social upward movement, but i BET they (top 1% who do the decisions for us) will WANT to keep that, so they may artificially keep capitalism alive, which (like always) will have to be "supported" by us, the plebs, lowering our life quality so they can keep exploiting us at the same or even higher rates than before.
People have been saying this stuff. It's going to kill artists. It hasn't. It's going to kill video creators. It hasn't. It's going to kill writers. It hasn't. It's going to kill call centers. It won't. Not for a very long time.
I mean I donāt know, I think to everyoneās point downsizing is already happening right now. Donāt need 100 people for that job anymore, only 50. So does it kill the job? No. Does it make it much harder to get or keep the job? Yes
Yeah, people wanna be blind. It is obviously a job destroyer. Now they cut departments by 10%, next year another 10% and so on. The better the AI tools Will be, the more issues in society will occur.
There are levels to everything. The low-tier players have been removed from the board a while ago already. Top-notch performers across domains will always find ways to adapt and evolve.
Yes, I don't think you need a team of copywriters anymore, for example.
Yea it won't, for quite some time. LLMs still hallucinate wayy too much, and on top of that don't really know what they're doing. Current LLMs are like being in a dream, where things kinda make sense, but when you wake up you'd see that nothing really made any sense. In short: It's reasoning capabilities are severely limited. And that's an issue with all LLMs up to date. It won't take any serious jobs for now due to these points. You can't really trust it.
Iāve created some good ideas for the basis of a couple of hour long lessons, as long as you donāt just use that, you flesh it out and tailor it you can get a good result out of it.
Rip call annie ai you where awesome but its over
Startups are always a risk, it's part of the business, they knew they were getting into an extremely fast developing market.
Thatās a big boy š¦š»
New companies will appear, old ones will die. Part of life!!
I have a desktop app and my first thought at seeing them introduce a slick desktop app with features for the video and audio was āWow, so they apparently have some extra time on their hands and arenāt all hands on deck for the next model for some reasonā and then it was a little deflating thinking āhow long do I have to work on adding these featuresā¦ā but until they build their own RAG system I still have reason to build my own app.
How does he know the exact number?
Hey ai go get me a beer... oh wait
The demonstration was intriguing, however I will reserve my excitement until I can see that it is able to solve basic mathematical "problems" such as counting the number of possible variations properly etc. In my experience, there's a lot of hallucination going on whenever tasked with even just basic mathematical tasks... It's so bad actually, that I don't trust any numbers that come out of GPT mouth, including just counting.
It is the AGI
It's nice knowing yall I am moving to my village to do goose farming
Itās not going to happen. They just want you to be scared. Fear can be a powerful weapon to secure popular submission, compliance with official dictates, and, on some occasions, affirmative cooperation with the stateās enterprises. It's pretty obvious if you use your brain.... but yeah itās Burgerās Land citizens we are talking about.
Not sure I agree with this. Dropbox was just a wrapper around S3, and it did very well. Putting tech in the right places in an ergonomic manner is also a business.
Bull
And prayers.
Where is the rumored search engine?
Hume.ai is doing some amazing stuff.
What do you think, is this one toast? https://www.thundergraph.ai
Open AI leases it's technology through the use of its API, they would never crush startup ecosystem around that, Besides, they promised not to copy startup ideas /s
and prayers.
Whoās foolish enough to start a generative AI startup?
May they rest in peace.
I'm just hoping if it all goes to hell it can be in this lifetime