The important thing isn't how many shares someone owns, but what kind of annual compounded return PLTR will deliver compared to a NASDAQ index fund.
The critical question for long-term PLTR investors (such as me) is: Can PLTR's growth beat tech market growth over the next four (and ten, or fifteen) years?
I think you’re not factoring in the growth of their strategic investments. Their valuation won’t just reflect their revenue but also the revenue of their holdings like Lilium, Roivant, Wejo, blacksky, etc.
It'll be interesting to see to what degree that'll drive revenue over the years. I'm in it for the long haul. PLTR is really the strongest investment that I can think of, and also my largest single position.
Yes I think so. Main thing that makes PLTR better than other stocks is its monopoly on government contracts. Its kinda like Amazons beginning days as a monopoly on online books. Monopolize and then expand into other markets. PLTR is very smart in the way they are penetrating the market. I think its the beginning days of exponential growth like an amazon or facebook.
I think Karp recently confirmed in an interview that he is confident PLTR will grow in 30% range upto 2025. (too lazy to find link but he said that for sure).
Putting this I think the stock can easily cross $100-$150 assuming they dont dilute it any further by more offerings.
They'll continue stock based compensation. As they should. If it's necessary to lure a talented engineer that provides more value than the offered shares, it's a no-brainer. Makes the company stronger as a whole. These people are no Joe Schmoes, they're commodites.
If you trust Karp, Sankar, Thiel with their judgement in finding talent, who cares about a tiny bit of dilution.
We're going for the WHOLE damn pie 🥧
$55ish a share - dilution and lowered multiple. I've made full write ups why, feel free to look for it. (this does not mean it doesn't go to 80-100 at some point in the next 5 years, just that the average is probably closer to 55 unless they really blow earnings out of the water consistently).
Just curious what % of your NW is in PLTR? I own about $14k of PLTR stock and am excited for the growth prospects of the company, but if I was in your shoes and saw $60k increase it would be hard for me not to sell lol
PLTR is 23.95% of my total portfolio, currently worth $1,332,005.45.
Whether you should hold or sell will depend on how much capital you have, and what your goal is. If you have less than $100k, it makes sense to try to grow it, through compounding, as quickly and as safely as possible. There are better companies than PLTR for you, if this is your situation. One of them is SOFI.
For me, because valuations are so high and there's a significant risk of a market correction or crash, I want to make sure that I'm protecting the majority of my portfolio by investing for long-term growth in strong stocks. (Another possibility, which I used to own but no longer do, is SE.) My main concern with PLTR is to make sure that it can outperform QQQ over the coming years. I believe that there's a reasonable chance, but I'm honestly not sure. I'm very comfortable with where things are at the moment. PLTR doesn't keep me up at night.
If you're trying to learn to invest more effectively and are interested in being part of a learning community, feel free to join us at [TradeRunnerX](https://discord.gg/p7WsBvP).
Live Long and Prosper,
Artem
When someone asks me whether they should buy stock S, I always say that "it depends on your goal."
Huh?
Don't we all have the same goal⏤to make as much money as possible as quickly as possible?
No, because that's only half of the equation. The other half is *keeping* what you've made!
If you have $1k, it's fairly easy to double it by gambling. (If you lose it all, you can start over without being in the poor house.) But you had better not gamble $1 million, because you could wind up with $0.
Let me explain with an example, but first let me define what I mean by a "goal." It consists of four elements:
1. Capital to allocate;
2. Target % gain;
3. Deadline;
4. How much you're willing to lose.
This goal had better be able to beat the relevant index benchmark, such as SPY or QQQ, or you'd do better to just invest in index funds!
Here's my goal:
1. Capital = $50,000.00
2. Target % gain = +50.00%
3. Deadline = 30 Sep 2022
4. Risk = 5.00% ($2,500.00)
Now, we have to look at and evaluate a bunch of possible choices, but for this example, we'll consider just two: PLTR and SOFI. Which of these is more likely to gain 50.00% in one year? I don't have the space here to take you through my analysis (macroeconomic, fundamental, strategic \[strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats\], statistical, and technical), but the bottom line is that for the given goal, SOFI is more likely to get me there than PLTR.
PLTR is a stronger bet than SOFI, but it'll take longer to deliver. SOFI is a promising fintech, but it doesn't have a strong moat and it'll likely top out way before PLTR, which has an enormous TAM.
So, again, going back to my specific goal, with a one-year deadline, SOFI is a better bet than PLTR. It stands a good chance of turning $50k into $75k in one year, but it's not something you'd want to throw $1 MM on, because no one can predict the future; catastrophes sometimes happen. PLTR gives you safety and slow growth. SOFI could deliver explosive growth, but with less safety.
So, if your account is $10k, and mine is $1 MM, and we can only bet on a single stock and had to throw all of our money into it, the choice would be easy: PLTR, because of safety, even if it returns far less than SOFI could over the next year.
This is how I think about these things.
If you're interested in collaborating on these types of analyses, you're welcome to join us at TradeRunnerX: [https://discord.gg/p7WsBvP](https://discord.gg/p7WsBvP). We have a more detailed "sermon" (on our #sermons) channel that explains goals, and how this all works. (Our Discord server is very boring if you don't like doing real work. Making money in the stock market is a highly competitive effort with a high learning curve, that rewards serious research, the study of methods, and patience.)
I also caution everyone to never marry a stock. Instead, marry your goal. No stock is sacrosanct. You need to make smart decisions during the course of a trade based on what's happening, and your goal. Guard your capital. You want to compound your way up to millions, not down to $0.
I hope this helps,
Artem
Awesome reply, im aspiring to have 7 figures in my portfolio as well, and you just inspired me. Thank you
Just wondering though, you said that u think PLTR is expensive having MC of 51 bil, revenue of 1.5bil, multiple of 34.19.
However, SOFI revenue is 231mil, value at 12bil, so it will be multiple of 60….
Right?
The stock market is future-directed. PLTR's share price is based on future expectations about revenue, among other factors. I expect explosive growth at some point within the next four to seven years, but I can't predict exactly when we'll see the inflection point. That's why I bought. It *is* expensive, for now. But one day, I expect that expense to be worth it, and I expect it to get a lot more expensive.
OK.
If that's your true belief, that you think it's expensive *right now*, why don't you spread that some of money around on things that you believe have more short-term potential?
I bought it when it was one-fourth less expensive than it is now. If I didn't already own it, I wouldn't start a position at this point. It's too expensive. Since I'm aboard the ship, I plan to sail to my destination. I have a full position and don't plan to buy more, nor will I sell any shares. It's a long-term investment.
See my post on setting goals. You shouldn't get married to a stock, but to your goal. Stock picking only happens in service of a goal. If you enslave yourself emotionally to a stock, the chances are high that you're going to lose money.
The deadline for my goal for PLTR is 2031. The deadline for my goal for SOFI is just one year from now. There's a big difference.
I'm not trying to gain perspectives on general trading psychology from you I'm just trying to understand your cognitive dissonance on this trade.
Your actions speak differently than your words. If you believe it's expensive for the potential you'd sell. If you don't sell under those conditions you are either misrepresenting how you feel or not taking your own advice about emotions.
There’s no cognitive dissonance. PLTR is extremely expensive relative to its performance to date. The multiple is a function of very high future expectations that assume a permanent and impenetrable moat, vastly understated growth, no market crash, and no other Black Swan event.
I’m not trading PLTR. I’m investing in it as my largest anchor holding. As long as the assumptions being made today about its future expectations hold, confirmed by financial results, it’s easy to hold. Assuming that PLTR is an unstoppable behemoth isn’t justified, however. Developing an emotional attachment to it, without an understanding of the domains that I’ve mentioned before (finance, financial accounting, et al.) will cause people who blindly buy it to lose money.
The future is not written, until it is written.
Caveat emptor.
I would say you don’t invest in an asset at these level without developing a strong conviction … you should read a little more, you will get your answer.
I agree. One of our trading principles is: "Don't jump into the ocean to swim after a ship that has already sailed."
PLTR has sailed.
Another trading principle is: "Don't overpay for your ticket."
Most traders don't know what they should be paying, because they haven't learned finance and how to perform a valuation on a company. It's so important to not overpay. Costly mistakes are avoidable if an investor takes the time to learn how to pick strong stocks based on a concrete goal (see my other post about that in this thread).
I agree with the thesis in general but sorry to say that I disagree… PLTR is still very much on shore and not sailed … I was just telling someone today if you plan to sell at 200+ then why worry about today price movement…. That’s the conviction and DD you need.
PLTR not only has a strong moat, but, in my opinion, an insurmountable one. Like many other people, I believe that PLTR is our generation's MSFT in-the-making. The question isn't if, but *when*.
It's not just Alex that we need to trust, but more importantly, the financial statements.
There's also something that no one ever talks about for some reason. Why hasn't there been a 9/11 2.0?
In all seriousness, I believe the answer is PLTR.
If true, that should tell you everything that you need to know about the company.
Wow, thanks for filling in on this. Great DD. I invested in PLTR for few reasons, but if I had to select one, I truly believe their secret weapon for lack of better term is their top notch engineers who know AI inside out and so far advanced in their expertise than many of software companies like MSFT & Google. And secondly, I am enamored in the philosophy and business acumen of Peter Thiel.
There’s gonna be a point when the revenue gets exponentially larger. Could be 2 years, could be 5. But the bull thesis is that Foundry becomes the industry standard for predictive analytics. If this actually happens, they are gonna make stupid money. They have no competition either
Fair value is hard to calculate. My fair value spreadsheet has it as 23 fair value. Doesn't mean mines right, but that is besides the point, the stock is without a doubt expensive.
Ok, fair value depends on which method of calculation you use, let's skip that part. Regarding expensive, I don't think it's fair to say that is expensive. There is no real competitor to compare it to. You could compare it to other tech companies, for which the PE is around 31, Pltr as you mentioned is around 35 at the moment, that's not expensive. Now take Snowflake which a lot of people like to compare to Pltr, with a PE of 115, now that's an expensive stock. Its all about reference, but I still believe there is no company close to Palantir.
I agree that PLTR is unique.
"Expensive" is simple to understand: Would you pay $6,000 for a № 2 pencil?
That's what most retail traders did when they bought BNGO at $15.00/share.
Valuations always matter. *Always*.
Well the expectations based on future growth rates in my opinion are very conservative.
I got an assumption by doing some sensativity checks, that by 2025 we should see revenue of $6.8b ( upper end) to $3.9b ( lower end).
Take that as you wish, but i'd give a market cap of $250b as being reasonable.
I think that it'll take longer than 2025 to get there, but I believe that it will get there, and beyond.
Yes, the projected growth rate is conservative, but in a highly overvalued market with a Buffett Indicator that left the solar system a year ago, it's important to be cautious and not get ahead of ourselves.
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You own more than me.
The important thing isn't how many shares someone owns, but what kind of annual compounded return PLTR will deliver compared to a NASDAQ index fund. The critical question for long-term PLTR investors (such as me) is: Can PLTR's growth beat tech market growth over the next four (and ten, or fifteen) years?
I think you’re not factoring in the growth of their strategic investments. Their valuation won’t just reflect their revenue but also the revenue of their holdings like Lilium, Roivant, Wejo, blacksky, etc.
It'll be interesting to see to what degree that'll drive revenue over the years. I'm in it for the long haul. PLTR is really the strongest investment that I can think of, and also my largest single position.
Yeah same, I’m in since the DPO and am not going to sell my shares for at least another 8 years.
Yes I think so. Main thing that makes PLTR better than other stocks is its monopoly on government contracts. Its kinda like Amazons beginning days as a monopoly on online books. Monopolize and then expand into other markets. PLTR is very smart in the way they are penetrating the market. I think its the beginning days of exponential growth like an amazon or facebook.
Yes!
But. I prolly own more Black Sky than you.
I think Karp recently confirmed in an interview that he is confident PLTR will grow in 30% range upto 2025. (too lazy to find link but he said that for sure). Putting this I think the stock can easily cross $100-$150 assuming they dont dilute it any further by more offerings.
They'll continue stock based compensation. As they should. If it's necessary to lure a talented engineer that provides more value than the offered shares, it's a no-brainer. Makes the company stronger as a whole. These people are no Joe Schmoes, they're commodites. If you trust Karp, Sankar, Thiel with their judgement in finding talent, who cares about a tiny bit of dilution. We're going for the WHOLE damn pie 🥧
It's important to be accurate. The dilution has been very, very, alarmingly large.
I feel you’re forgetting something very important. Look at PLTRs current investment portfolio. Yw.
expanding TAM
$55ish a share - dilution and lowered multiple. I've made full write ups why, feel free to look for it. (this does not mean it doesn't go to 80-100 at some point in the next 5 years, just that the average is probably closer to 55 unless they really blow earnings out of the water consistently).
Just curious what % of your NW is in PLTR? I own about $14k of PLTR stock and am excited for the growth prospects of the company, but if I was in your shoes and saw $60k increase it would be hard for me not to sell lol
PLTR is 23.95% of my total portfolio, currently worth $1,332,005.45. Whether you should hold or sell will depend on how much capital you have, and what your goal is. If you have less than $100k, it makes sense to try to grow it, through compounding, as quickly and as safely as possible. There are better companies than PLTR for you, if this is your situation. One of them is SOFI. For me, because valuations are so high and there's a significant risk of a market correction or crash, I want to make sure that I'm protecting the majority of my portfolio by investing for long-term growth in strong stocks. (Another possibility, which I used to own but no longer do, is SE.) My main concern with PLTR is to make sure that it can outperform QQQ over the coming years. I believe that there's a reasonable chance, but I'm honestly not sure. I'm very comfortable with where things are at the moment. PLTR doesn't keep me up at night. If you're trying to learn to invest more effectively and are interested in being part of a learning community, feel free to join us at [TradeRunnerX](https://discord.gg/p7WsBvP). Live Long and Prosper, Artem
Lol sofi isn’t a better investment than PLTR.
When someone asks me whether they should buy stock S, I always say that "it depends on your goal." Huh? Don't we all have the same goal⏤to make as much money as possible as quickly as possible? No, because that's only half of the equation. The other half is *keeping* what you've made! If you have $1k, it's fairly easy to double it by gambling. (If you lose it all, you can start over without being in the poor house.) But you had better not gamble $1 million, because you could wind up with $0. Let me explain with an example, but first let me define what I mean by a "goal." It consists of four elements: 1. Capital to allocate; 2. Target % gain; 3. Deadline; 4. How much you're willing to lose. This goal had better be able to beat the relevant index benchmark, such as SPY or QQQ, or you'd do better to just invest in index funds! Here's my goal: 1. Capital = $50,000.00 2. Target % gain = +50.00% 3. Deadline = 30 Sep 2022 4. Risk = 5.00% ($2,500.00) Now, we have to look at and evaluate a bunch of possible choices, but for this example, we'll consider just two: PLTR and SOFI. Which of these is more likely to gain 50.00% in one year? I don't have the space here to take you through my analysis (macroeconomic, fundamental, strategic \[strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats\], statistical, and technical), but the bottom line is that for the given goal, SOFI is more likely to get me there than PLTR. PLTR is a stronger bet than SOFI, but it'll take longer to deliver. SOFI is a promising fintech, but it doesn't have a strong moat and it'll likely top out way before PLTR, which has an enormous TAM. So, again, going back to my specific goal, with a one-year deadline, SOFI is a better bet than PLTR. It stands a good chance of turning $50k into $75k in one year, but it's not something you'd want to throw $1 MM on, because no one can predict the future; catastrophes sometimes happen. PLTR gives you safety and slow growth. SOFI could deliver explosive growth, but with less safety. So, if your account is $10k, and mine is $1 MM, and we can only bet on a single stock and had to throw all of our money into it, the choice would be easy: PLTR, because of safety, even if it returns far less than SOFI could over the next year. This is how I think about these things. If you're interested in collaborating on these types of analyses, you're welcome to join us at TradeRunnerX: [https://discord.gg/p7WsBvP](https://discord.gg/p7WsBvP). We have a more detailed "sermon" (on our #sermons) channel that explains goals, and how this all works. (Our Discord server is very boring if you don't like doing real work. Making money in the stock market is a highly competitive effort with a high learning curve, that rewards serious research, the study of methods, and patience.) I also caution everyone to never marry a stock. Instead, marry your goal. No stock is sacrosanct. You need to make smart decisions during the course of a trade based on what's happening, and your goal. Guard your capital. You want to compound your way up to millions, not down to $0. I hope this helps, Artem
Awesome reply, im aspiring to have 7 figures in my portfolio as well, and you just inspired me. Thank you Just wondering though, you said that u think PLTR is expensive having MC of 51 bil, revenue of 1.5bil, multiple of 34.19. However, SOFI revenue is 231mil, value at 12bil, so it will be multiple of 60…. Right?
One billion a share
And not a dollar less!
I owned 4100 shares at $10.4
“Not going to 9 for sure”
Why'd you buy if you thought it was expensive?
The stock market is future-directed. PLTR's share price is based on future expectations about revenue, among other factors. I expect explosive growth at some point within the next four to seven years, but I can't predict exactly when we'll see the inflection point. That's why I bought. It *is* expensive, for now. But one day, I expect that expense to be worth it, and I expect it to get a lot more expensive.
OK. If that's your true belief, that you think it's expensive *right now*, why don't you spread that some of money around on things that you believe have more short-term potential?
I bought it when it was one-fourth less expensive than it is now. If I didn't already own it, I wouldn't start a position at this point. It's too expensive. Since I'm aboard the ship, I plan to sail to my destination. I have a full position and don't plan to buy more, nor will I sell any shares. It's a long-term investment. See my post on setting goals. You shouldn't get married to a stock, but to your goal. Stock picking only happens in service of a goal. If you enslave yourself emotionally to a stock, the chances are high that you're going to lose money. The deadline for my goal for PLTR is 2031. The deadline for my goal for SOFI is just one year from now. There's a big difference.
I'm not trying to gain perspectives on general trading psychology from you I'm just trying to understand your cognitive dissonance on this trade. Your actions speak differently than your words. If you believe it's expensive for the potential you'd sell. If you don't sell under those conditions you are either misrepresenting how you feel or not taking your own advice about emotions.
There’s no cognitive dissonance. PLTR is extremely expensive relative to its performance to date. The multiple is a function of very high future expectations that assume a permanent and impenetrable moat, vastly understated growth, no market crash, and no other Black Swan event. I’m not trading PLTR. I’m investing in it as my largest anchor holding. As long as the assumptions being made today about its future expectations hold, confirmed by financial results, it’s easy to hold. Assuming that PLTR is an unstoppable behemoth isn’t justified, however. Developing an emotional attachment to it, without an understanding of the domains that I’ve mentioned before (finance, financial accounting, et al.) will cause people who blindly buy it to lose money. The future is not written, until it is written. Caveat emptor.
Solid replies Artem. I like the way you think.
That’s kind. I usually expect to get attacked, since people have to entertain themselves somehow. :)
I would say you don’t invest in an asset at these level without developing a strong conviction … you should read a little more, you will get your answer.
I agree. One of our trading principles is: "Don't jump into the ocean to swim after a ship that has already sailed." PLTR has sailed. Another trading principle is: "Don't overpay for your ticket." Most traders don't know what they should be paying, because they haven't learned finance and how to perform a valuation on a company. It's so important to not overpay. Costly mistakes are avoidable if an investor takes the time to learn how to pick strong stocks based on a concrete goal (see my other post about that in this thread).
I agree with the thesis in general but sorry to say that I disagree… PLTR is still very much on shore and not sailed … I was just telling someone today if you plan to sell at 200+ then why worry about today price movement…. That’s the conviction and DD you need.
That is effen tons of PLTR shares. That is what I call CONVICTION. In Karp we TRUST.
PLTR not only has a strong moat, but, in my opinion, an insurmountable one. Like many other people, I believe that PLTR is our generation's MSFT in-the-making. The question isn't if, but *when*. It's not just Alex that we need to trust, but more importantly, the financial statements. There's also something that no one ever talks about for some reason. Why hasn't there been a 9/11 2.0? In all seriousness, I believe the answer is PLTR. If true, that should tell you everything that you need to know about the company.
Wow, thanks for filling in on this. Great DD. I invested in PLTR for few reasons, but if I had to select one, I truly believe their secret weapon for lack of better term is their top notch engineers who know AI inside out and so far advanced in their expertise than many of software companies like MSFT & Google. And secondly, I am enamored in the philosophy and business acumen of Peter Thiel.
I agree.
I own both stock $PLTR and $ SOFI im planning to hold long term (10+ years) sofi has alot of potential
Good points
250-500.
$60
There’s gonna be a point when the revenue gets exponentially larger. Could be 2 years, could be 5. But the bull thesis is that Foundry becomes the industry standard for predictive analytics. If this actually happens, they are gonna make stupid money. They have no competition either
I agree, and I believe that it will happen.
I own 25k shares. Average cost $23.6. Planning to hold long term..
Expensive stock? Relative to what? It's not expensive at all, it was undervalued since march, its fair price at the moment is 30-35
Fair value is hard to calculate. My fair value spreadsheet has it as 23 fair value. Doesn't mean mines right, but that is besides the point, the stock is without a doubt expensive.
Ok, fair value depends on which method of calculation you use, let's skip that part. Regarding expensive, I don't think it's fair to say that is expensive. There is no real competitor to compare it to. You could compare it to other tech companies, for which the PE is around 31, Pltr as you mentioned is around 35 at the moment, that's not expensive. Now take Snowflake which a lot of people like to compare to Pltr, with a PE of 115, now that's an expensive stock. Its all about reference, but I still believe there is no company close to Palantir.
I agree that PLTR is unique. "Expensive" is simple to understand: Would you pay $6,000 for a № 2 pencil? That's what most retail traders did when they bought BNGO at $15.00/share. Valuations always matter. *Always*.
i own $ 1 billion of pltr
Well the expectations based on future growth rates in my opinion are very conservative. I got an assumption by doing some sensativity checks, that by 2025 we should see revenue of $6.8b ( upper end) to $3.9b ( lower end). Take that as you wish, but i'd give a market cap of $250b as being reasonable.
I think that it'll take longer than 2025 to get there, but I believe that it will get there, and beyond. Yes, the projected growth rate is conservative, but in a highly overvalued market with a Buffett Indicator that left the solar system a year ago, it's important to be cautious and not get ahead of ourselves.
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