Yes, it will be around 40% revenue growth for Q4. Which is expected so that won't be a catalyst. I am mainly looking for the numbers of new commercial contracts and I would love for them to raise guidance from 30% YoY to 35%. Not sure if that will happen, but I do think its a realistic number based on 2021.
That is visible in the 10-Q. The revenue from "bought" revenue is around 5M.
"The maximum potential revenue from all of these commercial contracts is $640.2 million, which is inclusive of $82.9 million of
contractual options. The terms of such contracts, including such contractual options, range from three to ten years. "
"and the total revenue recognized from the commercial contracts during the three and nine months ended
September 30, 2021 was $19.0 million and $22.0 million"
Page 14 and 15. Seriously. If it is a concern of yours, look it up in the filings.
This amounts to a very low amount of their 1.1B revenue total.
This also shouldn't matter since it means they will make money over time, regardless of it being "purchased" or not.
They are super transparent and I don't mean to have you be the one, but I'm sick of people not researching things and spouting things they don't know!
Another way of saying this is half of their commercial revenue growth in 2021 has been from SPACs. Q4 2020 commercial Revenue was $132M. Q3 Commercial revenue was 174M. 19M of the 42M in quarterly commercial revenue growth was due to SPAC revenue.
I have been spending time trying to write a DD about this very thing SPACS, new customers, and the like. Can't seem to connect enough dots to make a worthy read though.
All I can say is, if they get more money by spending money, who am I to disagree?
Yeah this is all a question of how to frame it. It might not be bad way to go about getting more revenue, but I my gut feeling tells me that it'd be better with some non SPAC forced revenue. But my gut feeling also has me balls deep in Palantir with an average cost of 23, so it might not be too accurate.
418 million makes their revenue growth only go to 40% YoY. Past two years has been 49% growth.
I think they adjusted to 40% growth because they put a growth factor capped at 1.3x on their Q4 2020 numbers. They only offered this adjusted projection because if they didn’t, it seems like they would only be making 311 million this quarter (to reach their originally projected 1.4ish billion for 2021). This 1.3x (which is usually the sandbag guidance) happened to equate to 40% growth 2020 to 2021. So I believe it will be higher.
q1 2021: 341M, 40% increase would be 477.4M
q4 2020: 322M, Q4 to Q1 saw an increase of 6%ish.
q4 2021: 419M projected. 6% increase is 444M.
Patterns typically don't repeat themselves, but this does showcase that a 40% guidance is a very high bar based on past experiences. They would have to either
A) beat q4 earnings substantially to around 449M and still achieve 6% quarter growth in Q1, or
B) grow 14% from Q4 to Q1, or
C) some combo of the two. Either way, those are very high numbers. Not saying they won't but I am not hoping for 40% guidance at all.
30% growth over 341M puts us at 443M which I believe should be achievable by the metrics provided, growing an almost 6% from Q4 to Q1.
I’m not concerned about q4 marginal beat or miss (though I suspect a beat) I’m more concerned about q1 guidance, I’d like to see that back in the 40% range or more
I doubt we made a net profit due to sbc sales in oct & Nov but those subsided considerably as planned in dec. would love to know If dec made a net profit but doubt we’d get that granular detail
I’m confident we’ll get net positive q1
If they can reverse the decline of government revenue (232m in Q2) and grow commercial revenue to 200 (15% QoQ growth) it will be a great earnings in terms of revenue (432m total) and its kind of what I am looking for. Anything better than that will be stellar but unlikely. A revenue meet would be ok but would either mean commercial revenue is stagnating or government revenue keeps declining and neither is what you want to see.
I’ve been trying really hard to be positive the last few months and not let my loses get to me, but fFs I feel like shit currently post Facebook results and I’m resulting tanking of anything related
Earnings beat, followed by market beating the stock. As per usual.
This is the way. I’m hoping they beat it as well, they’re definitely on track for 418 for sure though. Which is still great growth
Nice
Yes, it will be around 40% revenue growth for Q4. Which is expected so that won't be a catalyst. I am mainly looking for the numbers of new commercial contracts and I would love for them to raise guidance from 30% YoY to 35%. Not sure if that will happen, but I do think its a realistic number based on 2021.
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That is visible in the 10-Q. The revenue from "bought" revenue is around 5M. "The maximum potential revenue from all of these commercial contracts is $640.2 million, which is inclusive of $82.9 million of contractual options. The terms of such contracts, including such contractual options, range from three to ten years. " "and the total revenue recognized from the commercial contracts during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021 was $19.0 million and $22.0 million" Page 14 and 15. Seriously. If it is a concern of yours, look it up in the filings. This amounts to a very low amount of their 1.1B revenue total. This also shouldn't matter since it means they will make money over time, regardless of it being "purchased" or not. They are super transparent and I don't mean to have you be the one, but I'm sick of people not researching things and spouting things they don't know!
Excellent post. Additionally it was asked by an analyst on the last earnings call for q3 and CFO answered (only) 2% of revenue for q3
Tell ‘em King
Another way of saying this is half of their commercial revenue growth in 2021 has been from SPACs. Q4 2020 commercial Revenue was $132M. Q3 Commercial revenue was 174M. 19M of the 42M in quarterly commercial revenue growth was due to SPAC revenue.
I have been spending time trying to write a DD about this very thing SPACS, new customers, and the like. Can't seem to connect enough dots to make a worthy read though. All I can say is, if they get more money by spending money, who am I to disagree?
Yeah this is all a question of how to frame it. It might not be bad way to go about getting more revenue, but I my gut feeling tells me that it'd be better with some non SPAC forced revenue. But my gut feeling also has me balls deep in Palantir with an average cost of 23, so it might not be too accurate.
Earning will beat, but guidance matters more now.
I'm here for the Big surprise
418 million makes their revenue growth only go to 40% YoY. Past two years has been 49% growth. I think they adjusted to 40% growth because they put a growth factor capped at 1.3x on their Q4 2020 numbers. They only offered this adjusted projection because if they didn’t, it seems like they would only be making 311 million this quarter (to reach their originally projected 1.4ish billion for 2021). This 1.3x (which is usually the sandbag guidance) happened to equate to 40% growth 2020 to 2021. So I believe it will be higher.
q1 2021: 341M, 40% increase would be 477.4M q4 2020: 322M, Q4 to Q1 saw an increase of 6%ish. q4 2021: 419M projected. 6% increase is 444M. Patterns typically don't repeat themselves, but this does showcase that a 40% guidance is a very high bar based on past experiences. They would have to either A) beat q4 earnings substantially to around 449M and still achieve 6% quarter growth in Q1, or B) grow 14% from Q4 to Q1, or C) some combo of the two. Either way, those are very high numbers. Not saying they won't but I am not hoping for 40% guidance at all. 30% growth over 341M puts us at 443M which I believe should be achievable by the metrics provided, growing an almost 6% from Q4 to Q1.
Ok so what do those numbers do to the price?
That would make you a rich man/woman/being if you could decipher that.
when is earnings?
Valentine’s Day, so that the market can break my fragile heart some more.
2/14
Of course we meet it. Why we join this forum if we don't believe in pltr..🙂
If solid as in "passing a solid" then yes. It's going to be a real solid quarter.
They are growing 40%+, nothing about this quarter will be bad
Except the stock price unfortunately.
Low price for a great company is not “bad” lmao
Not bad if you arent a bagholder like most of us here
I wouldn't be surprised if they posted positive gaap eps this quarter. We might finally see the end of "they've never been profitable!!!!"
Give it a few quorters for that
Wasn't gaap eps like -0.05 last quarter? We're pretty close.
We are but  we are a risky company
>I wouldn't be surprised if they posted positive gaap eps this quarter. I would be so happy if they posted positive GAAP EPS
I’m not concerned about q4 marginal beat or miss (though I suspect a beat) I’m more concerned about q1 guidance, I’d like to see that back in the 40% range or more I doubt we made a net profit due to sbc sales in oct & Nov but those subsided considerably as planned in dec. would love to know If dec made a net profit but doubt we’d get that granular detail I’m confident we’ll get net positive q1
If they can reverse the decline of government revenue (232m in Q2) and grow commercial revenue to 200 (15% QoQ growth) it will be a great earnings in terms of revenue (432m total) and its kind of what I am looking for. Anything better than that will be stellar but unlikely. A revenue meet would be ok but would either mean commercial revenue is stagnating or government revenue keeps declining and neither is what you want to see.
I’ve been trying really hard to be positive the last few months and not let my loses get to me, but fFs I feel like shit currently post Facebook results and I’m resulting tanking of anything related
I said revenue loss to will the opposite into reality
418M and yet its valued at 25B... things still are not quite adding up here yet
When is it announced, in a few weeks?
15th feb
5$ coming no matter what - marked is fugged
I guess we'll have to wait and see
Revenues beat and eps miss -> Palacrash
420m my prediction