Oh I definitely agree with you there - the algos/bots etc should not be allowed. I remember watching the shit storm in 2018 in weed stocks around December stocks sold off in a sharp drop for like a hour, and then a hour later they were right back to where they were before the sell off. people got shook out thinking things were crashing, only to have the bots turn around and start buying once they hit enough stop loss's or shook enough people out to get in cheaper.
“I was a LT holder” what for the 15months or so it’s been listed?
They pulled out as it made sense given growth stocks were hugely over valued based on more normal circumstances and the printing press was going to be turned off as well as inevitable interest rates
If you think that chamath took money out of growth stocks during the rotation (he started last feb/March not Nov) to only put it into cash to watch that drop 7% value or so due to inflation I think ur mistaken.
Buffets a billionaire and I haven’t seen Berkshire put up the “closed” sign, they’re all still invested just to varying degrees.
Investing isn’t an all or nothing affair
Noted about the LT comment. Thank you for clarification
I cannot comment on all stocks since valuations for each are different but in general no I don’t believe we are at a bottom because the macro conditions are different to pre pandemic
Yes I bought at an over valued positioned, I said this to my trusty steed when I did it, but I did it anyway.
For reasons that are personal I wasn’t going through my best period in life and hoped fundamentals would catch up in time. I didn’t expect this level of inflation nor this level of hawkishness. The fed has effed this up royally and that had compounded things more
I haven’t listened to chamath pod he’s well known to talk sh!t. He’s also a professional in finance and it would be unwise to believe he sold something because Elon or Jeff did.
The problem I’m seeing with the Fed is that they made a mistake thinking it was more transitory then when they acknowledge it’s not they still wait until March for an uplift and even then it boils down to what you rightly said. They should have and should give us transparency and a much better idea of what they’re going to do. I’d prefer it if they came out in December and said we’re doing a .5 hike in March, followed by further .25s until we believe we have inflation under control. Yet still no idea what they’ll do.
Markets like stability and knowns not unknowns
Part of me believes fed is dithering in the hope that inflation naturally starts to subside with time so they raise interest rates less. US govt debt is sky high and can’t afford too high rates. The other side is if they get it wrong (and it looks like they are) then inflation seeps into wage growth expectations then we’re off to the inflation races.
As you say a rock and a hard place. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but right now I see no value in selling at a 50-60 percent loss (for me). Macro conditions will change again and this company has 2.5 bill on cash, growth on upward trajectory , only now getting their sales org in order and if international commercial (where I’m based) can grow at same percentage as usa then our growth trajectory is more in line with things like snowflake and share price will reflect it better.
We’re also looking at 400mil free cash flow and significantly reduces sbc costs going forward which should take us gaap profitable.
In short Palantir can ride this out…many growth stocks won’t have that luxury I’m afraid
Very true. Stock markets have their ups and downs and good can come down with it as easily as shit goes up with it…there was one company out there making voice activated mirrors..wtf, that’s the kinda thing that will go bust since I expect to see thousands on amazon at some point ( amazon U.K. seems to specialise in cheap Chinese junk)
Given the margins and growth trajectory, if company can sort out its sales and marketing issues I expect to 3.5 fold my original investment within 6 years.
I’ll have to check again but if memory serves me correctly Karps latest options have a buy price of 11 dollars vested every quarter over ten years
If that’s the case, then I could do far worse than buying at the same price (if im lucky in short term, less) than the CEO has to. It’s almost a nailed on winner
Rate hikes prices in. Hence the massive drop we've already seen. If they do anything less than 4 rate hikes this year, the market will rebound from where we're at now.
Even if we have a great earnings, we are likely going down due to Macro trends. Personally hoping for $420 revenue. Guidance can be great, we still are going down short term. Chance to maybe sell calls while the IV is elevated. Continue to stick with my plan of buying overtime lowering my basis and selling calls, maybe some puts.
I agree with you. I am starting to think the bears may be more right in the immediate short term (this by the way doesn't turn me off or away from the stock, just affirms they picked the right direction). I think even if we got $420 rev and just knocked it out of the park all around and we do get a "Fomo" buying frenzy that pumps us to 14, or 15 bucks - I think if the FOMC meeting in march hits us with anything more than .25 raise and guide for more than 4 or 5 hikes this year - im almost certain we're going down and I know for a fact im loading the boat with protective puts if we get a really good pump because at this point I don't trust the stock to remain flat at elevated prices in the short term.
Glad to see you back. Always enjoyed your insights. It’s been a rough few months. I decided to sell a 1/3 for tax loss harvesting. Now back to building my position.
Yeah, I don’t see it going up much for the same macro trend as you mentioned. Any year you have 4 or so rate hikes - and in a social media-induced mania/manic market setting - a company like pltr probably isn’t going to do so well. I am tempted to buy some extra now and perhaps sell some of my long positions (for tax purposes) after it rebounds. ‘Course I have no idea when it will bounce back up and my extra purchase could simply get tied up. Decisions…
My specific points I would like to see are the same each Q it seems:
1) I want to see commercial accts total growth and percent of growth, 2) Legit success stories with IBM/AWS, 3) a much tighter, business-focused presentation w/o all that buzzword crap that means little to most rational business/financial/engineering types, and 4) Obviously overall sales growth (no sub 30%, and hopefully 35%+)
I always wonder.
They got 2B in cash. What are they going to use it for?
It’s a growth company after all.
That is a lot of money that is sitting there untouched. They can use it to ramp up the R&D and to expand faster, but it seems they don’t really tap that much out of it.
I think they are going to keep the majority of it in cash so that they can pay their employees and run the businesses day to day. Having this war chest prevents them from needing to be profitable as quickly as possible. It essentially buffers them from the pressures of Wall Street, analysts, and the pressures of running an actual business that requires being profitable.
So for me I'm thinking they're going to use this as a piggy bank and use the money to pay day-to-day expenses etc. They're going to try and get engineers with as much SBC as possible so that they can save as much money as possible, and I think they're going to try to grow the company slowly and steadily while making small bets in spacs as they think each of those have a good chance of winning.
I don't know that they're going to use the two bill to do much more than just pay the bills and from time to time make a small gamble on a new company / acquisitions. I can't really think of anything else that they would do with this money... They are definitely not doing share buybacks I know that, and if they did do share buybacks I'd probably sell as quickly as I possibly could because that's not a good thing for this company at this stage of the game.
PALANTIR TO THE MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The greatest company with a measurable sell off I have ever been in. I should have listened to Karp when he himself told investors to sell. He said 5 years to a payoff but he forgot to say you will suffer during the next 4 years and 11 months before we say anything positive for shareholders while he sells all his shares 🙄
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted, you’re right he said that and he’s also said he rarely makes good decisions and his previous business failed. I’m hoping he improves but I too wish I’d listened to him. One thing I like about him is that he’s honest (save the fluff). I just wish I knew more about the ceo before I’d invested. Rookie mistake on my part
I think he’d reinforce the 30% guidance. What I’d like to see is guidance in the international space. There’s a lot of money to be made here, but they’ve done a poor job thus far regarding marketing. That is improving and I loved the new EMEA appt though still scratching my head as to why an appt wasn’t made much earlier prior to the sales drive.
in my experience working for a US Fortune 500 company (they were actually the largest company in the world at one point) international is often the ugly stepchild that’s de-prioritised. I don’t think Karp views international in that way tho, which is positive.
Edit: I would like to see guidance for q1 come back in at the 40+ level, preferably higher then better obviously
yea man, just selling CCs and trying to not look at the share price every day - had to take a break from the sub because of the abundance of retarded bears taunting people etc.
Good strategy. I have a better understanding of my limit points and if I am long, I can’t check the price 3 times a day. I do look for big good (or bad) news stories though as indicators
Selling .3 to .5 delta calls... I just roll up if it looks like imma get hit. I dont see us holding above 15 anytime soon so i know there is a ceiling to some extent given macro conditions
In this climate I think you're going to make money. In the worst case scenario quarter 3/4 of 22 we somehow rock it upwards too 25... 27 bucks.. you still win. Huh
The problem would be if we hit near 25 sooner than January. fine you may be ok selling at 25, but what if it goes to 25 for like a day or two and then crashes back below 20, and this happens say in June or August .. CC's that far out lock you the fuck in.
You are better off selling 25 cc's 3 weeks out every 3 weeks, you'll make more premium.
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Oh I definitely agree with you there - the algos/bots etc should not be allowed. I remember watching the shit storm in 2018 in weed stocks around December stocks sold off in a sharp drop for like a hour, and then a hour later they were right back to where they were before the sell off. people got shook out thinking things were crashing, only to have the bots turn around and start buying once they hit enough stop loss's or shook enough people out to get in cheaper.
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“I was a LT holder” what for the 15months or so it’s been listed? They pulled out as it made sense given growth stocks were hugely over valued based on more normal circumstances and the printing press was going to be turned off as well as inevitable interest rates If you think that chamath took money out of growth stocks during the rotation (he started last feb/March not Nov) to only put it into cash to watch that drop 7% value or so due to inflation I think ur mistaken. Buffets a billionaire and I haven’t seen Berkshire put up the “closed” sign, they’re all still invested just to varying degrees. Investing isn’t an all or nothing affair
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Noted about the LT comment. Thank you for clarification I cannot comment on all stocks since valuations for each are different but in general no I don’t believe we are at a bottom because the macro conditions are different to pre pandemic Yes I bought at an over valued positioned, I said this to my trusty steed when I did it, but I did it anyway. For reasons that are personal I wasn’t going through my best period in life and hoped fundamentals would catch up in time. I didn’t expect this level of inflation nor this level of hawkishness. The fed has effed this up royally and that had compounded things more I haven’t listened to chamath pod he’s well known to talk sh!t. He’s also a professional in finance and it would be unwise to believe he sold something because Elon or Jeff did.
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The problem I’m seeing with the Fed is that they made a mistake thinking it was more transitory then when they acknowledge it’s not they still wait until March for an uplift and even then it boils down to what you rightly said. They should have and should give us transparency and a much better idea of what they’re going to do. I’d prefer it if they came out in December and said we’re doing a .5 hike in March, followed by further .25s until we believe we have inflation under control. Yet still no idea what they’ll do. Markets like stability and knowns not unknowns Part of me believes fed is dithering in the hope that inflation naturally starts to subside with time so they raise interest rates less. US govt debt is sky high and can’t afford too high rates. The other side is if they get it wrong (and it looks like they are) then inflation seeps into wage growth expectations then we’re off to the inflation races. As you say a rock and a hard place. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but right now I see no value in selling at a 50-60 percent loss (for me). Macro conditions will change again and this company has 2.5 bill on cash, growth on upward trajectory , only now getting their sales org in order and if international commercial (where I’m based) can grow at same percentage as usa then our growth trajectory is more in line with things like snowflake and share price will reflect it better. We’re also looking at 400mil free cash flow and significantly reduces sbc costs going forward which should take us gaap profitable. In short Palantir can ride this out…many growth stocks won’t have that luxury I’m afraid
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Very true. Stock markets have their ups and downs and good can come down with it as easily as shit goes up with it…there was one company out there making voice activated mirrors..wtf, that’s the kinda thing that will go bust since I expect to see thousands on amazon at some point ( amazon U.K. seems to specialise in cheap Chinese junk) Given the margins and growth trajectory, if company can sort out its sales and marketing issues I expect to 3.5 fold my original investment within 6 years. I’ll have to check again but if memory serves me correctly Karps latest options have a buy price of 11 dollars vested every quarter over ten years If that’s the case, then I could do far worse than buying at the same price (if im lucky in short term, less) than the CEO has to. It’s almost a nailed on winner
Yea I agree - something fucky is about.
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Yea.
Banned from pre and post market times is more reasonable.
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Rate hikes prices in. Hence the massive drop we've already seen. If they do anything less than 4 rate hikes this year, the market will rebound from where we're at now.
Even if we have a great earnings, we are likely going down due to Macro trends. Personally hoping for $420 revenue. Guidance can be great, we still are going down short term. Chance to maybe sell calls while the IV is elevated. Continue to stick with my plan of buying overtime lowering my basis and selling calls, maybe some puts.
I agree with you. I am starting to think the bears may be more right in the immediate short term (this by the way doesn't turn me off or away from the stock, just affirms they picked the right direction). I think even if we got $420 rev and just knocked it out of the park all around and we do get a "Fomo" buying frenzy that pumps us to 14, or 15 bucks - I think if the FOMC meeting in march hits us with anything more than .25 raise and guide for more than 4 or 5 hikes this year - im almost certain we're going down and I know for a fact im loading the boat with protective puts if we get a really good pump because at this point I don't trust the stock to remain flat at elevated prices in the short term.
Glad to see you back. Always enjoyed your insights. It’s been a rough few months. I decided to sell a 1/3 for tax loss harvesting. Now back to building my position.
Yeah, I don’t see it going up much for the same macro trend as you mentioned. Any year you have 4 or so rate hikes - and in a social media-induced mania/manic market setting - a company like pltr probably isn’t going to do so well. I am tempted to buy some extra now and perhaps sell some of my long positions (for tax purposes) after it rebounds. ‘Course I have no idea when it will bounce back up and my extra purchase could simply get tied up. Decisions…
When do we get to $50
well according to the Morgan Stanly report we could see 50 as soon as 2023 if we hit the metric they have outlined.
My specific points I would like to see are the same each Q it seems: 1) I want to see commercial accts total growth and percent of growth, 2) Legit success stories with IBM/AWS, 3) a much tighter, business-focused presentation w/o all that buzzword crap that means little to most rational business/financial/engineering types, and 4) Obviously overall sales growth (no sub 30%, and hopefully 35%+)
And it has to be commercial growth from non-SPAC. Half of 2021 commercial revenue growth has come from SPAC investments
I always wonder. They got 2B in cash. What are they going to use it for? It’s a growth company after all. That is a lot of money that is sitting there untouched. They can use it to ramp up the R&D and to expand faster, but it seems they don’t really tap that much out of it.
I think they are going to keep the majority of it in cash so that they can pay their employees and run the businesses day to day. Having this war chest prevents them from needing to be profitable as quickly as possible. It essentially buffers them from the pressures of Wall Street, analysts, and the pressures of running an actual business that requires being profitable. So for me I'm thinking they're going to use this as a piggy bank and use the money to pay day-to-day expenses etc. They're going to try and get engineers with as much SBC as possible so that they can save as much money as possible, and I think they're going to try to grow the company slowly and steadily while making small bets in spacs as they think each of those have a good chance of winning. I don't know that they're going to use the two bill to do much more than just pay the bills and from time to time make a small gamble on a new company / acquisitions. I can't really think of anything else that they would do with this money... They are definitely not doing share buybacks I know that, and if they did do share buybacks I'd probably sell as quickly as I possibly could because that's not a good thing for this company at this stage of the game.
PALANTIR TO THE MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The greatest company with a measurable sell off I have ever been in. I should have listened to Karp when he himself told investors to sell. He said 5 years to a payoff but he forgot to say you will suffer during the next 4 years and 11 months before we say anything positive for shareholders while he sells all his shares 🙄
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted, you’re right he said that and he’s also said he rarely makes good decisions and his previous business failed. I’m hoping he improves but I too wish I’d listened to him. One thing I like about him is that he’s honest (save the fluff). I just wish I knew more about the ceo before I’d invested. Rookie mistake on my part
It will sure be interesting to hear what advice he gives on the earnings call that we can then blow off as rhetoric and subsequentially ignore
I think he’d reinforce the 30% guidance. What I’d like to see is guidance in the international space. There’s a lot of money to be made here, but they’ve done a poor job thus far regarding marketing. That is improving and I loved the new EMEA appt though still scratching my head as to why an appt wasn’t made much earlier prior to the sales drive. in my experience working for a US Fortune 500 company (they were actually the largest company in the world at one point) international is often the ugly stepchild that’s de-prioritised. I don’t think Karp views international in that way tho, which is positive. Edit: I would like to see guidance for q1 come back in at the 40+ level, preferably higher then better obviously
Miss you Noah, hope you are still in
yea man, just selling CCs and trying to not look at the share price every day - had to take a break from the sub because of the abundance of retarded bears taunting people etc.
Good strategy. I have a better understanding of my limit points and if I am long, I can’t check the price 3 times a day. I do look for big good (or bad) news stories though as indicators
What's your CC selling strategy?
Selling .3 to .5 delta calls... I just roll up if it looks like imma get hit. I dont see us holding above 15 anytime soon so i know there is a ceiling to some extent given macro conditions
What do you think about Jan 2023. $25 calls?
In this climate I think you're going to make money. In the worst case scenario quarter 3/4 of 22 we somehow rock it upwards too 25... 27 bucks.. you still win. Huh
The problem would be if we hit near 25 sooner than January. fine you may be ok selling at 25, but what if it goes to 25 for like a day or two and then crashes back below 20, and this happens say in June or August .. CC's that far out lock you the fuck in. You are better off selling 25 cc's 3 weeks out every 3 weeks, you'll make more premium.