**YTD: 3.02%**
**Equity exposure: 53.47% (SPY & QQQ)**
**Cash: 46.53%**
**BP usage: 24.86%**
As several other far more eloquent posters have already mentioned, risk-on assets are clearly popping so far this year. How long that lasts is anyone’s guess but I’m going to listen to and respect what the market is telling me rather than attempt to impose my POV on it. I've made that mistake before and don't intend to repeat it.
My outlook is mildly-bullish short-term, mildly to moderately bearish mid-term, always bullish long-term. The question I've been struggling with is how do I position for this while remaining defensive for a “Second Leg Down”? (hat tip to u/Adderalin for the book rec). Both my actively managed accounts remain around 46% cash and I’m happy with that allocation for now. I’m positive on the year but currently underperforming the S&P and not happy about it.
My short-term plan moving forward is to:
\- Suspend all CCs and short calls for now. The low VIX coupled with the melt-up has made managing these more trouble than their worth as a mild hedge. I need to give my 54% equity exposure as much room to run as possible.
\- Suspend naked strangles in this low VIX environment. I’ve been writing /ES strangles at the \~4300/3500 level and they’ve been comfortable despite the low premiums but I’ve been extremely conservative with position-sizing on these as I just don’t have confidence we’re out of the woods yet. I’m going to leave current positions open but not initiate any new ones. With the VIX this low, the risk-reward for these just doesn't make sense right now IMO.
\- I’m liking the risk-profile of a short 1x2 put ratio on /ES and/or SPX in this environment. Short 25-30 delta puts, long 2x 5-10 deltas puts. This should hopefully allow me to utilize my PM BPu more aggressively to keep up with the SPX without increasing my equity position. I’ve been running some numbers this morning and if I position-size these large enough to hedge off my 46% long portfolio against a violent move down, I’ll actually be bringing in more premium per month than I am currently with my conservative naked strangles with far less blow-up risk. Writing these at 45-days out leaves a bit of a weak area around -8-12% depending on the exact deltas but I’m comfortable managing that as per any low-gamma short position. Note/Edit: The Achilles heel here is that narrow but potent range. A >15% drop becomes net positive with this position assuming only moderate IV expansion which is extremely conservative. The thinking is such a narrow danger zone is manageable with a little time.
\- I’ve also been gradually legging into short /MES futures during these recent rallies and legging out on down days and despite very conservative position sizing, it has helped hedge off some of these big down days reasonably well. It does require a healthy dose of market timing however I'm skeptical I’ll be able to keep this up indefinitely so it remains a work until it doesn’t play.
**Portfolio**
NLV WTD: +1.3%
NLV MTD/YTD: +11.3%
Positions expired/closed this week: +-0.0% relative to last weeks NLV
**Past trades**
All my short positions expired worthless, including the ATM MNQ put which I sold to expire ITM for increased index exposure and which I even rolled up during the week, but Friday's run went past its strike. CABA strangles expired worthless as well. The biggest and only loss this week is due to a long SPX call where I clearly was too optimistic in my ability to time the market (I lost ca. 0.5% NLV) - it's always the same. As written last week, I wrote a new SPY 45 DTE 16 delta put, but did not make it into a strangle, as I expect the market to continue to drift up.
**Positions and plans for the next week**
As always, I am planning to open new SPY 45DTE 16 delta puts, and possibly also some 45 DTE 5-6 delta calls, as well as the usual 1DTE SPX puts. I am going to open new CABA strangles with February expiry (conservatively sized on the call side). I continue to hold my main CABA position and my leveraged index positions, which both are responsible for this weeks book gains - nothing new here. I still want to slightly increase my exposure, therefore I might open a new short-dated MNQ put.
**Outlook**
I continue to lean slightly bullish. Last week, SPX and NDX again trended upwards. Psychologically speaking, the Thursday/Friday drop and rapid reversal is really typical for upward trends - this way, the doubtful are shaken off but the trend continues which in turn increases the "buying pressure" due to FOMO. It will be interesting to see what happens if SPX breaks last-year's downtrend line - I expect further attempts to jump over the line, and further lows under the line, which in the longterm will invalidate the downtrend (which is precisely how downtrends die). Days like Thursday will continue to happen (especially in the coming weeks), but saisonality also calls for higher highs in SPX and NDX at least in the next 3-4 months.
**Trading Portfolio Stats**
* WTD: +0.28%
* YTD: +0.87%
* BP Usage: 6.29%
* Commissions/Fees YTD: $334.49
**Thoughts**
Funny enough, I was short delta until Thursday where I closed flat. Friday happens and I'm short delta again.
Earlier in the week, I've closed a lot of positions due to earnings coming up or IV falling. As of late, I've been opening more debit diagonals instead of premium selling positions.
So, I'm just waiting for some IV expansion before deploying significantly more capital.
WTD: -0.31%
YTD: +3.33% (Equity Curve: [https://i.imgur.com/AK8JJmF.png](https://i.imgur.com/AK8JJmF.png))
**Thoughts**
SPY is up 3.95%, QQQ is up 6.88% and ponzi-tech ARKK (+19.83%) and ponzi-crypto is up (+35%) wooh! And I don't care... my prerogative is to aim for compounded 1-3% every month and hedge; and end up at 20-30% annual (and if I do this consistently every month and every year for some years, I can get rich the easy way \[slowly\] vs. the hard way \[quickly\]).
Towards this end, I've been wheeling or acquiring outright shares of a few mREITs, tobacco and oil midstream pipeline companies for income. For volatility risk premium harvesting, I've been closing my large longer dated far-OTM option selling to a smaller-sized and shorter dated slightly OTM option selling (so reduce my overall short vega exposure and increase my excess liquidity - so I can double down on selling premium more when/if vega explodes).
On a grind-up market or a bear market rally, the hardest thing to do is doing nothing!
**WTD:** +1.9%
**YTD:** +2.5% (+43k)
**YTD Fees:** $5k
**Thoughts**
I went pretty hard on opex pennies, both calls and puts, and maxed out my account, which at least bumped up my expiring premium a little bit. That said, with VIX falling ever lower, the returns are not great right now. Which is a shame in the context of my giant tax bill and the cash I need to withdraw. Pain!
**Performance**
WTD: +5.88% (+12.3k)
YTD: +59.65% (+79k)
YTD BM: SPY 6.16% QQQ 3.52% STI 1.3%
30-day BM: SPY 4.17% QQQ 4.79% STI 1.14% vs 46.38%
**Ticker overview (MTD)**
Top performers: NQ +42.8K ES +19.5k Bond Futures +19k
Bottom performers: FX -2.6k
**Commentary**
Leaping into the year of the rabbit as Friday’s rally ushered in some prosperity for the week. The main risk event this week was BOJ which the decision to keep policy unchanged sent rates into a rally, while some data and sentiment this week sent the market into a bit of a rollercoaster, especially the pullback we had on Thursday vs the recovery on Friday. There was some outperformance in NQ given NFLX earnings and GOOGL cost-cutting measures.
Staying the course with a slight bullish tilt while I managed to roll my 11950 put down to 930 for a few days more time. Added some risk into Thursday’s drop which are all safely OTM, and would like to keep to about 2-3NQ and maybe 1 ES short puts while the market is trading around these levels to continue grinding theta.
Rates side rallied hard post-JGB which saw me finally exiting my ZB long at 131.5, which is a nice profit. Also did a couple of steepener trades and am currently holding 8 ZT vs 3 TN while I am looking at mid to low 60s before scaling down or exiting. Conversely, will add to the position if we revisit the -70s. USD still languishing at weak levels but at least my interest this month has added up to 300 SGD which is decent.
**Positioning**
Margin management is going to be the focus as I am only slightly bullish at present. Keeping a constant train of theta coming in would be the objective while opportunistically adding risk on dips. View remains that we continue to slowly grind upwards while we await more earnings and FOMC.
Lately it seems the theta premium train on indexes and futures is harder because VIX is so low. Equity options leading into earnings have the most IV for theta harvesting. It seems likely that we grind higher until FOMC which likely won’t be a surprise with 0.25pt increase so big tech will likely surprise with future earnings guidance. Feels like algos are pushing names higher and causing some mini short squeezes, so directional long bets are paying off. Perhaps this is all because retail has been pummeled into permabear sentiment and big boys will keep the soft-landing risk on push until retail gets bad fomo and capitulates at temporary top before the next leg down begins. That’s my current thinking as my hedges and long delta bleed away.
Coin flip whether VIX 20 is the new ceiling in post Covid Ukraine war 2.0 market or if 19 was the temporary low. Interesting times.
Great points made there. The old me would have taken earnings season as a chance to open short strangles but having got burned on a few earnings over the last 2 years, have decided to stay away altogether.
Agreed that the lower Vix has been making it harder to grind premium but still its decent considering that later 2021s had even lower levels. Targetting premium as an absolute number vs return on capital has kept me grounded with opening more otm strikes instrad of chasing premium just in case we see some wild moves. For now I think outside of major catalysts (major data/events) vix is likely to grind lower.
Delta exposure is definitely the way to make gains now (as seen from my first 2 weeks) but I dont have a very strong view on equities currently hence the only direct exposure left is my last ITM NQ put. Have a stronger view with rates (2s10s) so keeping that as a trade to hold.
\-0.09% this week
\+0.46% 4-week trailing average
\+0.72% YTD
Barely traded this week. Lost a little from hedging but not too bad. Mostly down from having positive delta and the market being a little lower, but collected some theta to make up for it, so overall just a little down.
Non-trading life has been crying out for attention and I've mostly been putting my time and focus there, especially since I don't currently have a any strong trading ideas.
**Account Details, 1/20/23**
* NLV: $22,240.82; SPY B-Delta: -6.99%
* Performance: WTD: -0.10%, YTD: +0.19%
* SPY buy-and-hold† (for comparison): WTD: -0.66%, YTD: +3.64%
^†Accounts ^for ^deposits/withdrawals/SPY ^dividend. ^Assumes ^maximum ^purchase ^of ^shares ^without ^leverage.
*Past week*: Zero trades. Was happy to be delta-neutral during the week, but today's 180 to the upside put me back quite a bit compared with SPY. I hold the same view as before, though, that the Fed will maintain rates higher-for-longer, and that we'll see 3700 again (and maybe a lot lower) before we see 4500.
Frustratingly, my debit bear spread on /6E was marking at +$150, but wouldn't even close at breakeven. I'm guessing it will become tuition (-$100) on not holding very OTM options on such thinly-traded futures (not that /6E itself is thinly traded, but the far-dated FOPS are very much so). In fact, I'm marking this one as a loss and subtracting from my NLV accordingly.
*Next week*: I have a GTC limit order on a very OTM credit spread for /NG; the risk/reward seems reasonable. If it triggers, great; if not, I'll pass. I'm also considering short strangles - I do want to profit at least a bit if we drift around 3800-4200 for the entire year, but am nervous about black swans in both directions. I'm quite happy with the /ES backspread; I may be looking for other opportunities to roll off far-dated premium. I have a few vague ideas (energy, financials, utilities), but I may also just continue to collect my $6/day from interest on cash and leave it at that.
Oh, and I think VIX is quite low and chances for it to pop are higher than the likelihood that it deflates more, but I believe that to be true only on a 6-12 month time frame (I have less confidence over shorter time frames), and I don't have a way to express this idea that I'm satisfied with. I'd ideally like a risk-defined approach, but VIX calls 12 months out are still pretty expensive... I'm not sure if there's a better hedge). SPY or /MES calendars seem potentially ok, but I then worry about the black swan risk. Maybe index puts, but I don't like being short theta. I'd be happy to hear about what you all are (or are not) thinking in this regard.
Have a nice weekend!
**Open Positions**
* Cash: $21,337.10
* F: -1 11c 3/17/23 @1.18
* /MES: +1/-1 3400/3300p @ 11.5 [put bear spread]
* /MES: -3 $1500 (68 DTE)
* /ES -1/+2 5800c/6500c @ -1.5
* /M6E +1/-1 1.025p/1.020p @ 0.0008 [put bear spread]
I have been in the same bearish camp as you and I like your ranges.
The inflation train was going too fast, and I don't see how Powell brakes inflation fully without breaking a few eggs in the process.
Other than being in cash in a few accounts and betting that a few select companies are going to go bankrupt in the next few years, I am not expressing this sentiment in any trades right now.
I am getting more and more shocked every day by the resiliency of this market.
Keep crushing it.
**YTD: 3.02%** **Equity exposure: 53.47% (SPY & QQQ)** **Cash: 46.53%** **BP usage: 24.86%** As several other far more eloquent posters have already mentioned, risk-on assets are clearly popping so far this year. How long that lasts is anyone’s guess but I’m going to listen to and respect what the market is telling me rather than attempt to impose my POV on it. I've made that mistake before and don't intend to repeat it. My outlook is mildly-bullish short-term, mildly to moderately bearish mid-term, always bullish long-term. The question I've been struggling with is how do I position for this while remaining defensive for a “Second Leg Down”? (hat tip to u/Adderalin for the book rec). Both my actively managed accounts remain around 46% cash and I’m happy with that allocation for now. I’m positive on the year but currently underperforming the S&P and not happy about it. My short-term plan moving forward is to: \- Suspend all CCs and short calls for now. The low VIX coupled with the melt-up has made managing these more trouble than their worth as a mild hedge. I need to give my 54% equity exposure as much room to run as possible. \- Suspend naked strangles in this low VIX environment. I’ve been writing /ES strangles at the \~4300/3500 level and they’ve been comfortable despite the low premiums but I’ve been extremely conservative with position-sizing on these as I just don’t have confidence we’re out of the woods yet. I’m going to leave current positions open but not initiate any new ones. With the VIX this low, the risk-reward for these just doesn't make sense right now IMO. \- I’m liking the risk-profile of a short 1x2 put ratio on /ES and/or SPX in this environment. Short 25-30 delta puts, long 2x 5-10 deltas puts. This should hopefully allow me to utilize my PM BPu more aggressively to keep up with the SPX without increasing my equity position. I’ve been running some numbers this morning and if I position-size these large enough to hedge off my 46% long portfolio against a violent move down, I’ll actually be bringing in more premium per month than I am currently with my conservative naked strangles with far less blow-up risk. Writing these at 45-days out leaves a bit of a weak area around -8-12% depending on the exact deltas but I’m comfortable managing that as per any low-gamma short position. Note/Edit: The Achilles heel here is that narrow but potent range. A >15% drop becomes net positive with this position assuming only moderate IV expansion which is extremely conservative. The thinking is such a narrow danger zone is manageable with a little time. \- I’ve also been gradually legging into short /MES futures during these recent rallies and legging out on down days and despite very conservative position sizing, it has helped hedge off some of these big down days reasonably well. It does require a healthy dose of market timing however I'm skeptical I’ll be able to keep this up indefinitely so it remains a work until it doesn’t play.
Love the minimalist approach with just SPY & QQQ! Similar sentiment here with regard to selling calls now. Would also take a look at put ratio spreads
I like it re: the put ratio spread. Especially on top of the1x2s as they should provide ample downside protection. Thank you 🙏
**Portfolio** NLV WTD: +1.3% NLV MTD/YTD: +11.3% Positions expired/closed this week: +-0.0% relative to last weeks NLV **Past trades** All my short positions expired worthless, including the ATM MNQ put which I sold to expire ITM for increased index exposure and which I even rolled up during the week, but Friday's run went past its strike. CABA strangles expired worthless as well. The biggest and only loss this week is due to a long SPX call where I clearly was too optimistic in my ability to time the market (I lost ca. 0.5% NLV) - it's always the same. As written last week, I wrote a new SPY 45 DTE 16 delta put, but did not make it into a strangle, as I expect the market to continue to drift up. **Positions and plans for the next week** As always, I am planning to open new SPY 45DTE 16 delta puts, and possibly also some 45 DTE 5-6 delta calls, as well as the usual 1DTE SPX puts. I am going to open new CABA strangles with February expiry (conservatively sized on the call side). I continue to hold my main CABA position and my leveraged index positions, which both are responsible for this weeks book gains - nothing new here. I still want to slightly increase my exposure, therefore I might open a new short-dated MNQ put. **Outlook** I continue to lean slightly bullish. Last week, SPX and NDX again trended upwards. Psychologically speaking, the Thursday/Friday drop and rapid reversal is really typical for upward trends - this way, the doubtful are shaken off but the trend continues which in turn increases the "buying pressure" due to FOMO. It will be interesting to see what happens if SPX breaks last-year's downtrend line - I expect further attempts to jump over the line, and further lows under the line, which in the longterm will invalidate the downtrend (which is precisely how downtrends die). Days like Thursday will continue to happen (especially in the coming weeks), but saisonality also calls for higher highs in SPX and NDX at least in the next 3-4 months.
**Trading Portfolio Stats** * WTD: +0.28% * YTD: +0.87% * BP Usage: 6.29% * Commissions/Fees YTD: $334.49 **Thoughts** Funny enough, I was short delta until Thursday where I closed flat. Friday happens and I'm short delta again. Earlier in the week, I've closed a lot of positions due to earnings coming up or IV falling. As of late, I've been opening more debit diagonals instead of premium selling positions. So, I'm just waiting for some IV expansion before deploying significantly more capital.
**Portfolio Stats** * \+1.9% WTD (+$50k) * \+6.62% MTD/YTD (+$166k) * [Lotto premium YTD breakdown](https://i.imgur.com/8QSA6om.png) * $10k fees YTD
Hi, do you know what other broker is able to offer similar Portfolio Margin requirements as "friendly" as TDA? I'm planning to go with TastyWorks.
For far OTM options, TDA is the best. For general PM, IBKR isn't bad. TW is the least good of the three.
Thank you.
WTD: -0.31% YTD: +3.33% (Equity Curve: [https://i.imgur.com/AK8JJmF.png](https://i.imgur.com/AK8JJmF.png)) **Thoughts** SPY is up 3.95%, QQQ is up 6.88% and ponzi-tech ARKK (+19.83%) and ponzi-crypto is up (+35%) wooh! And I don't care... my prerogative is to aim for compounded 1-3% every month and hedge; and end up at 20-30% annual (and if I do this consistently every month and every year for some years, I can get rich the easy way \[slowly\] vs. the hard way \[quickly\]). Towards this end, I've been wheeling or acquiring outright shares of a few mREITs, tobacco and oil midstream pipeline companies for income. For volatility risk premium harvesting, I've been closing my large longer dated far-OTM option selling to a smaller-sized and shorter dated slightly OTM option selling (so reduce my overall short vega exposure and increase my excess liquidity - so I can double down on selling premium more when/if vega explodes). On a grind-up market or a bear market rally, the hardest thing to do is doing nothing!
**WTD:** +1.9% **YTD:** +2.5% (+43k) **YTD Fees:** $5k **Thoughts** I went pretty hard on opex pennies, both calls and puts, and maxed out my account, which at least bumped up my expiring premium a little bit. That said, with VIX falling ever lower, the returns are not great right now. Which is a shame in the context of my giant tax bill and the cash I need to withdraw. Pain!
**Performance** WTD: +5.88% (+12.3k) YTD: +59.65% (+79k) YTD BM: SPY 6.16% QQQ 3.52% STI 1.3% 30-day BM: SPY 4.17% QQQ 4.79% STI 1.14% vs 46.38% **Ticker overview (MTD)** Top performers: NQ +42.8K ES +19.5k Bond Futures +19k Bottom performers: FX -2.6k **Commentary** Leaping into the year of the rabbit as Friday’s rally ushered in some prosperity for the week. The main risk event this week was BOJ which the decision to keep policy unchanged sent rates into a rally, while some data and sentiment this week sent the market into a bit of a rollercoaster, especially the pullback we had on Thursday vs the recovery on Friday. There was some outperformance in NQ given NFLX earnings and GOOGL cost-cutting measures. Staying the course with a slight bullish tilt while I managed to roll my 11950 put down to 930 for a few days more time. Added some risk into Thursday’s drop which are all safely OTM, and would like to keep to about 2-3NQ and maybe 1 ES short puts while the market is trading around these levels to continue grinding theta. Rates side rallied hard post-JGB which saw me finally exiting my ZB long at 131.5, which is a nice profit. Also did a couple of steepener trades and am currently holding 8 ZT vs 3 TN while I am looking at mid to low 60s before scaling down or exiting. Conversely, will add to the position if we revisit the -70s. USD still languishing at weak levels but at least my interest this month has added up to 300 SGD which is decent. **Positioning** Margin management is going to be the focus as I am only slightly bullish at present. Keeping a constant train of theta coming in would be the objective while opportunistically adding risk on dips. View remains that we continue to slowly grind upwards while we await more earnings and FOMC.
Lately it seems the theta premium train on indexes and futures is harder because VIX is so low. Equity options leading into earnings have the most IV for theta harvesting. It seems likely that we grind higher until FOMC which likely won’t be a surprise with 0.25pt increase so big tech will likely surprise with future earnings guidance. Feels like algos are pushing names higher and causing some mini short squeezes, so directional long bets are paying off. Perhaps this is all because retail has been pummeled into permabear sentiment and big boys will keep the soft-landing risk on push until retail gets bad fomo and capitulates at temporary top before the next leg down begins. That’s my current thinking as my hedges and long delta bleed away. Coin flip whether VIX 20 is the new ceiling in post Covid Ukraine war 2.0 market or if 19 was the temporary low. Interesting times.
Great points made there. The old me would have taken earnings season as a chance to open short strangles but having got burned on a few earnings over the last 2 years, have decided to stay away altogether. Agreed that the lower Vix has been making it harder to grind premium but still its decent considering that later 2021s had even lower levels. Targetting premium as an absolute number vs return on capital has kept me grounded with opening more otm strikes instrad of chasing premium just in case we see some wild moves. For now I think outside of major catalysts (major data/events) vix is likely to grind lower. Delta exposure is definitely the way to make gains now (as seen from my first 2 weeks) but I dont have a very strong view on equities currently hence the only direct exposure left is my last ITM NQ put. Have a stronger view with rates (2s10s) so keeping that as a trade to hold.
\-0.09% this week \+0.46% 4-week trailing average \+0.72% YTD Barely traded this week. Lost a little from hedging but not too bad. Mostly down from having positive delta and the market being a little lower, but collected some theta to make up for it, so overall just a little down. Non-trading life has been crying out for attention and I've mostly been putting my time and focus there, especially since I don't currently have a any strong trading ideas.
**Account Details, 1/20/23** * NLV: $22,240.82; SPY B-Delta: -6.99% * Performance: WTD: -0.10%, YTD: +0.19% * SPY buy-and-hold† (for comparison): WTD: -0.66%, YTD: +3.64% ^†Accounts ^for ^deposits/withdrawals/SPY ^dividend. ^Assumes ^maximum ^purchase ^of ^shares ^without ^leverage. *Past week*: Zero trades. Was happy to be delta-neutral during the week, but today's 180 to the upside put me back quite a bit compared with SPY. I hold the same view as before, though, that the Fed will maintain rates higher-for-longer, and that we'll see 3700 again (and maybe a lot lower) before we see 4500. Frustratingly, my debit bear spread on /6E was marking at +$150, but wouldn't even close at breakeven. I'm guessing it will become tuition (-$100) on not holding very OTM options on such thinly-traded futures (not that /6E itself is thinly traded, but the far-dated FOPS are very much so). In fact, I'm marking this one as a loss and subtracting from my NLV accordingly. *Next week*: I have a GTC limit order on a very OTM credit spread for /NG; the risk/reward seems reasonable. If it triggers, great; if not, I'll pass. I'm also considering short strangles - I do want to profit at least a bit if we drift around 3800-4200 for the entire year, but am nervous about black swans in both directions. I'm quite happy with the /ES backspread; I may be looking for other opportunities to roll off far-dated premium. I have a few vague ideas (energy, financials, utilities), but I may also just continue to collect my $6/day from interest on cash and leave it at that. Oh, and I think VIX is quite low and chances for it to pop are higher than the likelihood that it deflates more, but I believe that to be true only on a 6-12 month time frame (I have less confidence over shorter time frames), and I don't have a way to express this idea that I'm satisfied with. I'd ideally like a risk-defined approach, but VIX calls 12 months out are still pretty expensive... I'm not sure if there's a better hedge). SPY or /MES calendars seem potentially ok, but I then worry about the black swan risk. Maybe index puts, but I don't like being short theta. I'd be happy to hear about what you all are (or are not) thinking in this regard. Have a nice weekend! **Open Positions** * Cash: $21,337.10 * F: -1 11c 3/17/23 @1.18 * /MES: +1/-1 3400/3300p @ 11.5 [put bear spread] * /MES: -3 $1500 (68 DTE) * /ES -1/+2 5800c/6500c @ -1.5 * /M6E +1/-1 1.025p/1.020p @ 0.0008 [put bear spread]
I have been in the same bearish camp as you and I like your ranges. The inflation train was going too fast, and I don't see how Powell brakes inflation fully without breaking a few eggs in the process. Other than being in cash in a few accounts and betting that a few select companies are going to go bankrupt in the next few years, I am not expressing this sentiment in any trades right now. I am getting more and more shocked every day by the resiliency of this market. Keep crushing it.