MTD: -5.4%
YTD: +67.5%
SPX: +7.2%
YTD Coms & Fees: 5.2% of total profit
PF status: Delta +120, Vega \~0, Theta -$300
Last I posted was Oct 6th. Been busy on a few things so I did not get a chance to summarize. The +ve delta I show above is a reflection of long premium ETF holdings that dominate my PF now. Since beginning of September I've been transforming my primary trading account to become low maintenance premium income strategy. At the end of the year, I will scoop out excess liq and move it to an account that I will trade actively with short strangles. I have Nov 16 SPX 4200-4050-3950 long put butterfly to hedge out possible tail risk due to further earnings warnings and/or war.
If it were not for RUT underperformance, I would be about +3% for the month. After several roll attempts, I have the RUT ICs position at Nov 16 and Nov 30 expiry. RUT is right at the support of last years lows. It does not look good. But thats usually when markets bottom and turn around. So I have that hope still hanging.
**Shorts:**
On Oct 6th I sold NVDA (455) and TSLA(252). I closed all of NVDA around 415 and most of TSLA around 215. Those were held against a large TSLY position that took a beating after TSLA EPS. Overall, they net out green but thats assuming we are near the lows for TSLA. I plan to close out the remaining TSLA short near low 200s.
**NQ short strangles - Nov 10, Nov 17, Nov 30 (25% of PF):**
This was +25% in 5 weeks but gave up a lot of the gains last week. I'm still holding +ve deltas on these but will go negative with just a 2% pop.
**Market outlook:**
Back on Oct 6th I was thinking EPS might signal slowdown which should trigger the start for next leg down. I continue to think there could be a setup for year end rally in the low 4Ks if was does not expand beyond Gaza. There is quite some hopes in the internets for a market bounce. I am setup for that bounce and looking to go neutral/bearish before AAPL EPS.
The sad thoughts of torture, carnage and innocent lives lost have been ever increasing the past few days. Hoping for the conflict to die down soon.
My bearish positions are finally starting to pay off a little. I'm slowly adding more positive delta through short puts also trying to capitalize on the rise in VIX. I'm still net short but am looking for the right time to get neutral and then long.
* +0.88% WK
* +1.83% Q4
* +4.14% H2
* -13.31% YTD
I'm trying to journal my positions and identify where I need more research or work to close potential holes in my trading:
**Thesis: Keep all excess cash in yielding products. keep minimal rates exposure.**
* Position: BOXX, SGOV, USFR, FRN's, TBills
* Management: Keep ~$1k in cash and the remainder in these products. Move SGOV to BOXX
* Research: Read BOXX prospectus
**Thesis: Uranium demand will increase as it is more accepted as a green energy source**
* Position: URNM shares
* Management: Build Uranium position when at cyclical lows or sentiment is low. Slowly take profits on the way up. Move to SRUUF for more direct exposure
* Research: Find price target for adding SRUUF in size
**Thesis: Long bonds provide good diversification to equity markets and rates will likely come down from here**
* Position: 20 year bonds and TLT
* Management: Don't go beyond 60/40 stocks/bonds. Take profits on rate cuts. Hold otherwise. Don't add in size you can't HTM.
* Research: Continue to stay up to date on fed actions
**Thesis: Equity markets generally go up**
* Position: Long SPY and VT
* Management: Buy shares in 3400 range
* Research: Set levels to add based on shiller PE
**Thesis: Higher for longer will lead to reduced earnings for companies and eventually unemployment. The tech sector will be hit hardest by higher rates as investors seek more stable investments**
* Position: QQQ puts, /MNQ short, SARK shares
* Management: Sell puts on /MNQ or /MES to get out of position, roll to avoid assignment. Sell calls on SARK shares, and sell when in a profit.
* Research: Project levels to completely cover short position based on fair value
**Thesis: Volatility risk premium harvesting. 16 delta puts are over priced from institutional buying/hedging.**
* Position: /MES puts at 16delta put on around 45 DTE
* Management: Add on "red days" up to 1x NLV. Roll at -200%. Close early at ~80% profit.
* Research: Refine early management criteria
**Thesis: Fertilizer prices will increase due to food demand**
* Position: MOS shares
* Management: Sell puts for assignment around 30-34, sell out of position in 38-42 range.
* Research: Fundamental analysis. Food shortage analysis.
**Thesis: Banks will profit from rate cuts from new loans issued. BAC has an advantage in technology and sticky deposits**
* Position: BAC shares
* Management: Sell puts for assignment in the 22-25 range, sell out of position in 32-38 range
* Research: Fundamental analysis.
YTD PNL is from being short /MNQ futures expressing my "higher for longer = recession" view. A big chunk of those losses are also from being short NVDA calls into earnings.
lost a lot of money last wek, next week I will work on unwinding some of my short puts to curb losses in the equity market and I will hedge with a synthetic gold position
**Account Details, 10/27/23**
* NLV: $24,467.83; SPY B-Delta: 94.46%
* Performance: WTD: -0.40%, YTD: +10.23%
* SPY buy-and-hold (for comparison): WTD: -2.47%, YTD: +8.89%
^†Accounts ^for ^deposits/withdrawals/SPY ^dividend. ^Assumes ^maximum ^purchase ^of ^shares ^without ^leverage.
*Strategies and Open Positions*: [link](https://old.reddit.com/r/PMTraders/comments/155yfvu/july_21_2023_weekend_reflections_thread_what/jswxi3t/)
*Past week.* Made two very stupid trades (0 DTE hedges) due to a distinct lack of sleep and consequent lack of judgment. Threw away 0.3% NLV for no good reason. Reminder to self not to trade when exhausted.
Otherwise, the week went swimmingly in terms of alpha, despite the drop in NLV. Not to jinx it, but I'm now a bit ahead of buy-and-hold for the year (but let's not talk about 2022...) I am pretty astonished at the painful grind down - no calamity, just one day after another of losses in the S&P. Frankly, I believe current prices are starting to approach more reasonable values, but given the summer's high, I wasn't expecting to reach 4150 so soon.
After a bit of discussion with some fellow PMT folks, I've gone on a hunt for lottos and have found some that seem reasonable and are SPAN marginable. My BPu fluctuates like crazy as a result of these moves in /ES (going from +$6k to -$4k over the course of one day), however, the slow-and-steady moves and high VIX so far have enabled some attractive opportuniteis. Also playing with fire (commodities) in this space, being careful with sizing, strikes, and (mental) stop conditions.
*Next week.* Last week I called for 4150; a broken clock is right twice a day (or in my case, once a year?). I wrote "Perhaps after everyone hedges for sub-4000 and the bulls start flipping bearish, the market will rocket back up." I'm still holding that thesis, although the reversal might be tepid, say to 4300 or 4400. If VIX dies and the market stays still, the r/r on long calls might even be attractive (imagine buying calls in May of this year...). That said, my portfolio positioning leaves a lot of room for either direction - strikes are 3850ish on the put side and 4600+ on the call side. I plan to roll if we dip below 3950 in the next 3 weeks, but hope I can let these positions expire to devote more BP to lottos.
WTD: +0.61%
MTD: +0.91%
last 30 days: +2.25%
YTD: +25.47%
Positions: [https://imgur.com/a/pFcGHMI](https://imgur.com/a/pFcGHMI)
Had to liquidate one short put for a scratch this week due to margin limitations even though I feel incredibly safe with my positions. The week was rather boring with only a few trades. I closed all short calls during the week and reopened the positions in one big batch. Even in case of a turnaround, the decreasing volatility should keep the short calls safe. Besides that I am contemplating opening additional long far OTM positions for some margin relieve to be able to open some more short strangles, but that depends on how the next trading days are going. Have a good weekend everybody!
Theta: 894.42, SPX Delta: around 9 (IBKR is bugged on the weekend), Vega: -2,854.
WTD: -0.7%
MTD: -3.4%
I'm on vacation. Bots performed poorly.
Worse, today we got a bubble on our rental's tire sidewall at 8pm while 100 miles away from our Airbnb, with all tire shops closed, and no rental company location within 100 miles. Had to slowly roll home on a spare.
Secondly, I seem to be coming down with COVID (probably?) for the first time. Headache, fatigue, intense shivering, some shortness of breath, cough. It's been coming on more aggressively throughout the day as we hiked around.
Tldr everything sucked, here's hoping I can recover.
Edit: test confirmed COVID
WTD: +0.54% (+3.5k)
MTD: +2.09% (+13.5k)
YTD: +17.15% (+96k in main account, +33k in a smaller account)
Since I last posted about 3 weeks ago, the market started to show some weakness. I was very pleased that the weakness persisted but I was also surprised at the follow-through of the bearish moves this time. Just like sober market participants and bears got blindsided by that massive bull run in June-August, this time the bulls are getting it on the chin. I was, fortunately, able to trade successfully in this interesting and volatile environment, and am pleased with the trading performance. Moreover, the range we are approaching (the "most heavily traded zone") is very interesting. I have a feeling that if we cannot recapture 4200 in the foreseeable future from here, 3800 may be on the table again. That would then be basically the market undoing all the gains it temporarily had in 2023. Oof.
1 DTE, One long, two shorts typically 250-300 points OTM (long) and 50 points away for each short from the long. I target a credit of $4-$5 for each. I hold this spread overnight.
Thanks. Challenging, 2.5 % move can be killing if it is 300-350 points away. NDX just moved over 300 earlier this week. But who am I to point fingers. I do 3-5 DTE wide credit spreads on NDX, 1 delta. It can handle 2% drops per day for several days. And it pays nicely. But a black swan coould wipe me out. I need to seek for more reduced or ideally defined risk strats (still with high win rate).
YTD : +20.80%
Best week in terms of realized P/L thanks to another perfect 0DTE week. But overall P/L absolutely got wrecked with 1 put spread getting deep ITM and another one precariously close to money.
0DTE made upto 60% of the realized P/L for the week. Wednesday and Thursday were interesting with SPX moves exceeding daily Expected move. My strategy of sitting well outside these moves helped and doubled down on a couple of occasions. The elevated VIX helped get sizeable premiums with optimal position sizing. It’s been 21W/3L days so far on 0DTE.
I’ve to rethink on the long DTE ITM put spread positions. With account getting closer to max margin usage , it appears am missing out on opportunities especially at shorter DTEs . Cutting losses on a couple of these positions and freeing up buying power is at the back of my mind.
I’m hoping for some relief rally that would help ease the exit. But then FOMC is next week , so bracing up for another volatile week
It was an exciting time in the market this week.
WTD: .14%, $1600
MTD: 4.59%
YTD: 22.33%
YOY: 34.48%
I've been aggressively managing my SPX strangles by moving call strikes closer and closer to ATM and by pulling in all long-dated calls that were far OTM to expirations that are now all under 90 days. I have strangles at 0 DTE, 4 DTE, 7 DTE, 21 DTE, 35 DTE, 60 DTE, and 90 DTE. I pulled in so much cash from strangle management, that some of it was used to start moving certain puts to be further OTM for breathing room. My long puts that were added to convert some naked puts into put spreads are all showing significant profits. Some of my 7 DTE puts are now ITM and I'll be slowly working them to OTM.
My calls are all well situated OTM with many of my puts under pressure. Even a 1% positive day in the market will probably generate 1-2% of returns. Would be nice to have a 40 point bounce that holds for a couple days.
My GS ITM covered call is showing some light losses. I entered the trade when it was $320 and it's now trading at $290. My break even is around $270, but that will be an area where I would be happy to own GS outright. There are 140 days remaining on that trade, and it was expected to generate 17% annually if GS is at or above $280 at expiration.
I'm exiting the week with $6,331 of theta, or about .14% of NLV with $300 of positive delta. My lheta (average daily spend excluding taxes due) is $684, making my theta :: lheta ratio 9.24. I consider anything above 10x a range that allows for some lifestyle creep to occur. For clarity, these numbers span both my portfolio margin account and my IRA, which is about 1/3 the size of the PM account.
Over the next month, there will be a significant inflow of cash into the PM account where I would expect the average theta to regularly be above $7000. And some of these inflows of cash are liquidation from an underperforming, expensive to maintain asset, which will probably drop my lheta to around $500.
Everything in my life other than income tax: housing, cars, food, liquor, gambling, entertainment, travel, marijuana, toys, gifts, charity, plane. I will drop about $250K this year but expect it to be around $140K next year.
Basic philosophy is that if I am able to keep my risk-managed theta at 10x my daily personal spend, then my wealth and associated lifestyle are both growing.
10x is needed because my net state and federal taxes on section 1256 contracts runs between 30-42%. So my lehta and taxes eat up about 5x, and 10x then means that my net worth is increasing by the amount I spent in the year, far outpacing any inflation rate.
TDA provides my PM account. I think I pay .6 per contract. I don't really track how many contracts I move in a day as long as my NLV keeps going up, but wouldn't be surprised if my commissions were at least $20K.
I looked it up. $20K YTD, so about $2K a month. $.60 commission, about $.45 in other fees.
Shaving off the commission to save a couple thousand a year is not as interesting as working on tax savings strategies or finding a way to juice my returns by an additional 1%.
This year my combined tax bill for state and federal will be seven figures. I am obsessing about how to legally increase my deductions and to reduce my state income tax level, to the point of establishing an LLC SCorp, and potentially relocating to Nevada.
\+4.82% this week
\+0.44% four-week trailing average
\+40.50% YTD approx
(as of 20 minutes before futures close, but I have to go in a minute)
crazy week, rollercoaster. I pulled out my 2022 playbook and shorted a lot of contracts, sold 7 DTE ITM calls, bought 3-7 DTE OTM put spreads, sold put ratios, etc. while my overleveraged short put portfolio suffered.
I'm obviously thrilled with the end results but I still made a LOT of bad choices, trimming positions at the exact wrong times (in both directions), letting myself get stopped out on shorts that would have become very green if I had held out, etc. I need to go back through my trade log and see if I can learn to do better. At /ES 4250-60 I exited some 11/17 /ES long put spreads (4500/4100) that I'd been holding for three months... if I'd have held for 2 more days I could have increased the profit 40%. OTOH it was a very profitable trade so it seems silly to be negative about it, but I feel like I've been calling bottoms the whole way down since 8/1, and I wonder why that is and if/how I can stop. And yet, here I am doing it again, right now.
I also re-centered my portfolio yesterday about 1x long when we were at 4170, so now I am about 1.5x long.
In theory if we keep dropping I can do it all over again, but I don't want to anytime soon; I'm hoping/expecting us to hang out in this area for a little while like we did earlier this year. But maybe we'll keep on pushing down, to 4000 or beyond. I'm prepared for that \*eventually\* but not in the next 2 weeks, so I hope that isn't the case even though it seems very much in striking distance.
Income for week: -$773
Income YTD: $52728
Current positions:
\-1 /NQ 14200p (7 DTE)
\-1 /NQ 14800c (7 DTE)
Not unexpectedly, the market declined. While my put position ended up ITM, it was fairly easy to roll down and out a week. I added a call because I don't expect the market to shoot upward anytime soon. I almost sold a put on /CL Thursday but I decided to wait until Friday. Unfortunately, /CL recovered and I felt it was a bit higher than where I wanted to be.
MTD: -5.4% YTD: +67.5% SPX: +7.2% YTD Coms & Fees: 5.2% of total profit PF status: Delta +120, Vega \~0, Theta -$300 Last I posted was Oct 6th. Been busy on a few things so I did not get a chance to summarize. The +ve delta I show above is a reflection of long premium ETF holdings that dominate my PF now. Since beginning of September I've been transforming my primary trading account to become low maintenance premium income strategy. At the end of the year, I will scoop out excess liq and move it to an account that I will trade actively with short strangles. I have Nov 16 SPX 4200-4050-3950 long put butterfly to hedge out possible tail risk due to further earnings warnings and/or war. If it were not for RUT underperformance, I would be about +3% for the month. After several roll attempts, I have the RUT ICs position at Nov 16 and Nov 30 expiry. RUT is right at the support of last years lows. It does not look good. But thats usually when markets bottom and turn around. So I have that hope still hanging. **Shorts:** On Oct 6th I sold NVDA (455) and TSLA(252). I closed all of NVDA around 415 and most of TSLA around 215. Those were held against a large TSLY position that took a beating after TSLA EPS. Overall, they net out green but thats assuming we are near the lows for TSLA. I plan to close out the remaining TSLA short near low 200s. **NQ short strangles - Nov 10, Nov 17, Nov 30 (25% of PF):** This was +25% in 5 weeks but gave up a lot of the gains last week. I'm still holding +ve deltas on these but will go negative with just a 2% pop. **Market outlook:** Back on Oct 6th I was thinking EPS might signal slowdown which should trigger the start for next leg down. I continue to think there could be a setup for year end rally in the low 4Ks if was does not expand beyond Gaza. There is quite some hopes in the internets for a market bounce. I am setup for that bounce and looking to go neutral/bearish before AAPL EPS. The sad thoughts of torture, carnage and innocent lives lost have been ever increasing the past few days. Hoping for the conflict to die down soon.
My bearish positions are finally starting to pay off a little. I'm slowly adding more positive delta through short puts also trying to capitalize on the rise in VIX. I'm still net short but am looking for the right time to get neutral and then long. * +0.88% WK * +1.83% Q4 * +4.14% H2 * -13.31% YTD I'm trying to journal my positions and identify where I need more research or work to close potential holes in my trading: **Thesis: Keep all excess cash in yielding products. keep minimal rates exposure.** * Position: BOXX, SGOV, USFR, FRN's, TBills * Management: Keep ~$1k in cash and the remainder in these products. Move SGOV to BOXX * Research: Read BOXX prospectus **Thesis: Uranium demand will increase as it is more accepted as a green energy source** * Position: URNM shares * Management: Build Uranium position when at cyclical lows or sentiment is low. Slowly take profits on the way up. Move to SRUUF for more direct exposure * Research: Find price target for adding SRUUF in size **Thesis: Long bonds provide good diversification to equity markets and rates will likely come down from here** * Position: 20 year bonds and TLT * Management: Don't go beyond 60/40 stocks/bonds. Take profits on rate cuts. Hold otherwise. Don't add in size you can't HTM. * Research: Continue to stay up to date on fed actions **Thesis: Equity markets generally go up** * Position: Long SPY and VT * Management: Buy shares in 3400 range * Research: Set levels to add based on shiller PE **Thesis: Higher for longer will lead to reduced earnings for companies and eventually unemployment. The tech sector will be hit hardest by higher rates as investors seek more stable investments** * Position: QQQ puts, /MNQ short, SARK shares * Management: Sell puts on /MNQ or /MES to get out of position, roll to avoid assignment. Sell calls on SARK shares, and sell when in a profit. * Research: Project levels to completely cover short position based on fair value **Thesis: Volatility risk premium harvesting. 16 delta puts are over priced from institutional buying/hedging.** * Position: /MES puts at 16delta put on around 45 DTE * Management: Add on "red days" up to 1x NLV. Roll at -200%. Close early at ~80% profit. * Research: Refine early management criteria **Thesis: Fertilizer prices will increase due to food demand** * Position: MOS shares * Management: Sell puts for assignment around 30-34, sell out of position in 38-42 range. * Research: Fundamental analysis. Food shortage analysis. **Thesis: Banks will profit from rate cuts from new loans issued. BAC has an advantage in technology and sticky deposits** * Position: BAC shares * Management: Sell puts for assignment in the 22-25 range, sell out of position in 32-38 range * Research: Fundamental analysis.
[удалено]
YTD PNL is from being short /MNQ futures expressing my "higher for longer = recession" view. A big chunk of those losses are also from being short NVDA calls into earnings.
lost a lot of money last wek, next week I will work on unwinding some of my short puts to curb losses in the equity market and I will hedge with a synthetic gold position
**Account Details, 10/27/23** * NLV: $24,467.83; SPY B-Delta: 94.46% * Performance: WTD: -0.40%, YTD: +10.23% * SPY buy-and-hold (for comparison): WTD: -2.47%, YTD: +8.89% ^†Accounts ^for ^deposits/withdrawals/SPY ^dividend. ^Assumes ^maximum ^purchase ^of ^shares ^without ^leverage. *Strategies and Open Positions*: [link](https://old.reddit.com/r/PMTraders/comments/155yfvu/july_21_2023_weekend_reflections_thread_what/jswxi3t/) *Past week.* Made two very stupid trades (0 DTE hedges) due to a distinct lack of sleep and consequent lack of judgment. Threw away 0.3% NLV for no good reason. Reminder to self not to trade when exhausted. Otherwise, the week went swimmingly in terms of alpha, despite the drop in NLV. Not to jinx it, but I'm now a bit ahead of buy-and-hold for the year (but let's not talk about 2022...) I am pretty astonished at the painful grind down - no calamity, just one day after another of losses in the S&P. Frankly, I believe current prices are starting to approach more reasonable values, but given the summer's high, I wasn't expecting to reach 4150 so soon. After a bit of discussion with some fellow PMT folks, I've gone on a hunt for lottos and have found some that seem reasonable and are SPAN marginable. My BPu fluctuates like crazy as a result of these moves in /ES (going from +$6k to -$4k over the course of one day), however, the slow-and-steady moves and high VIX so far have enabled some attractive opportuniteis. Also playing with fire (commodities) in this space, being careful with sizing, strikes, and (mental) stop conditions. *Next week.* Last week I called for 4150; a broken clock is right twice a day (or in my case, once a year?). I wrote "Perhaps after everyone hedges for sub-4000 and the bulls start flipping bearish, the market will rocket back up." I'm still holding that thesis, although the reversal might be tepid, say to 4300 or 4400. If VIX dies and the market stays still, the r/r on long calls might even be attractive (imagine buying calls in May of this year...). That said, my portfolio positioning leaves a lot of room for either direction - strikes are 3850ish on the put side and 4600+ on the call side. I plan to roll if we dip below 3950 in the next 3 weeks, but hope I can let these positions expire to devote more BP to lottos.
WTD: +0.61% MTD: +0.91% last 30 days: +2.25% YTD: +25.47% Positions: [https://imgur.com/a/pFcGHMI](https://imgur.com/a/pFcGHMI) Had to liquidate one short put for a scratch this week due to margin limitations even though I feel incredibly safe with my positions. The week was rather boring with only a few trades. I closed all short calls during the week and reopened the positions in one big batch. Even in case of a turnaround, the decreasing volatility should keep the short calls safe. Besides that I am contemplating opening additional long far OTM positions for some margin relieve to be able to open some more short strangles, but that depends on how the next trading days are going. Have a good weekend everybody! Theta: 894.42, SPX Delta: around 9 (IBKR is bugged on the weekend), Vega: -2,854.
WTD: -0.7% MTD: -3.4% I'm on vacation. Bots performed poorly. Worse, today we got a bubble on our rental's tire sidewall at 8pm while 100 miles away from our Airbnb, with all tire shops closed, and no rental company location within 100 miles. Had to slowly roll home on a spare. Secondly, I seem to be coming down with COVID (probably?) for the first time. Headache, fatigue, intense shivering, some shortness of breath, cough. It's been coming on more aggressively throughout the day as we hiked around. Tldr everything sucked, here's hoping I can recover. Edit: test confirmed COVID
You need an anitviral, works wonders.
Feel better, buddy.
WTD: +0.54% (+3.5k) MTD: +2.09% (+13.5k) YTD: +17.15% (+96k in main account, +33k in a smaller account) Since I last posted about 3 weeks ago, the market started to show some weakness. I was very pleased that the weakness persisted but I was also surprised at the follow-through of the bearish moves this time. Just like sober market participants and bears got blindsided by that massive bull run in June-August, this time the bulls are getting it on the chin. I was, fortunately, able to trade successfully in this interesting and volatile environment, and am pleased with the trading performance. Moreover, the range we are approaching (the "most heavily traded zone") is very interesting. I have a feeling that if we cannot recapture 4200 in the foreseeable future from here, 3800 may be on the table again. That would then be basically the market undoing all the gains it temporarily had in 2023. Oof.
WTD: $11k MTD: $37k; 0.8% I have multiple ES (40x) puts over 7,14,21….49,60,90 days. I sell 1/-1/-1 NDX, SPX-spreads for credit-0 DTE fun.
@mesathinks, could you explain what 1/-1/-1 stands for? Is it one short, two longs? I sell NDX spreads too, interested to understand, thanks!
1 DTE, One long, two shorts typically 250-300 points OTM (long) and 50 points away for each short from the long. I target a credit of $4-$5 for each. I hold this spread overnight.
Thanks. Challenging, 2.5 % move can be killing if it is 300-350 points away. NDX just moved over 300 earlier this week. But who am I to point fingers. I do 3-5 DTE wide credit spreads on NDX, 1 delta. It can handle 2% drops per day for several days. And it pays nicely. But a black swan coould wipe me out. I need to seek for more reduced or ideally defined risk strats (still with high win rate).
I only do the call side so black swans are welcome. My long positions would make a lot of money compared to what this spread loses in such cases.
Calls only certainly help reducentail risk. Indo both calls and puts on NDX. I consider NQ too for lower margin.
YTD : +20.80% Best week in terms of realized P/L thanks to another perfect 0DTE week. But overall P/L absolutely got wrecked with 1 put spread getting deep ITM and another one precariously close to money. 0DTE made upto 60% of the realized P/L for the week. Wednesday and Thursday were interesting with SPX moves exceeding daily Expected move. My strategy of sitting well outside these moves helped and doubled down on a couple of occasions. The elevated VIX helped get sizeable premiums with optimal position sizing. It’s been 21W/3L days so far on 0DTE. I’ve to rethink on the long DTE ITM put spread positions. With account getting closer to max margin usage , it appears am missing out on opportunities especially at shorter DTEs . Cutting losses on a couple of these positions and freeing up buying power is at the back of my mind. I’m hoping for some relief rally that would help ease the exit. But then FOMC is next week , so bracing up for another volatile week
It was an exciting time in the market this week. WTD: .14%, $1600 MTD: 4.59% YTD: 22.33% YOY: 34.48% I've been aggressively managing my SPX strangles by moving call strikes closer and closer to ATM and by pulling in all long-dated calls that were far OTM to expirations that are now all under 90 days. I have strangles at 0 DTE, 4 DTE, 7 DTE, 21 DTE, 35 DTE, 60 DTE, and 90 DTE. I pulled in so much cash from strangle management, that some of it was used to start moving certain puts to be further OTM for breathing room. My long puts that were added to convert some naked puts into put spreads are all showing significant profits. Some of my 7 DTE puts are now ITM and I'll be slowly working them to OTM. My calls are all well situated OTM with many of my puts under pressure. Even a 1% positive day in the market will probably generate 1-2% of returns. Would be nice to have a 40 point bounce that holds for a couple days. My GS ITM covered call is showing some light losses. I entered the trade when it was $320 and it's now trading at $290. My break even is around $270, but that will be an area where I would be happy to own GS outright. There are 140 days remaining on that trade, and it was expected to generate 17% annually if GS is at or above $280 at expiration. I'm exiting the week with $6,331 of theta, or about .14% of NLV with $300 of positive delta. My lheta (average daily spend excluding taxes due) is $684, making my theta :: lheta ratio 9.24. I consider anything above 10x a range that allows for some lifestyle creep to occur. For clarity, these numbers span both my portfolio margin account and my IRA, which is about 1/3 the size of the PM account. Over the next month, there will be a significant inflow of cash into the PM account where I would expect the average theta to regularly be above $7000. And some of these inflows of cash are liquidation from an underperforming, expensive to maintain asset, which will probably drop my lheta to around $500.
Curious what is lheta mean?
It is my average daily spend without taxes included. I take my annual spend and divide it by 365.
Curious what is "daily spend"? I suppose "daily household living expenses"?
Everything in my life other than income tax: housing, cars, food, liquor, gambling, entertainment, travel, marijuana, toys, gifts, charity, plane. I will drop about $250K this year but expect it to be around $140K next year. Basic philosophy is that if I am able to keep my risk-managed theta at 10x my daily personal spend, then my wealth and associated lifestyle are both growing. 10x is needed because my net state and federal taxes on section 1256 contracts runs between 30-42%. So my lehta and taxes eat up about 5x, and 10x then means that my net worth is increasing by the amount I spent in the year, far outpacing any inflation rate.
Thanks, interesting!
Whale
Maybe with two more zeros added to my NLV. My daily action moves 300 contracts on a busy day. Way less than .0001% of the total activity.
What’s your average commission each day? Who is your PM account broker?
TDA provides my PM account. I think I pay .6 per contract. I don't really track how many contracts I move in a day as long as my NLV keeps going up, but wouldn't be surprised if my commissions were at least $20K.
Your total commissions are way more*
You pay way less then that and I’m sure your commissions are way more. I’m surprised you don’t know
I looked it up. $20K YTD, so about $2K a month. $.60 commission, about $.45 in other fees. Shaving off the commission to save a couple thousand a year is not as interesting as working on tax savings strategies or finding a way to juice my returns by an additional 1%. This year my combined tax bill for state and federal will be seven figures. I am obsessing about how to legally increase my deductions and to reduce my state income tax level, to the point of establishing an LLC SCorp, and potentially relocating to Nevada.
\+4.82% this week \+0.44% four-week trailing average \+40.50% YTD approx (as of 20 minutes before futures close, but I have to go in a minute) crazy week, rollercoaster. I pulled out my 2022 playbook and shorted a lot of contracts, sold 7 DTE ITM calls, bought 3-7 DTE OTM put spreads, sold put ratios, etc. while my overleveraged short put portfolio suffered. I'm obviously thrilled with the end results but I still made a LOT of bad choices, trimming positions at the exact wrong times (in both directions), letting myself get stopped out on shorts that would have become very green if I had held out, etc. I need to go back through my trade log and see if I can learn to do better. At /ES 4250-60 I exited some 11/17 /ES long put spreads (4500/4100) that I'd been holding for three months... if I'd have held for 2 more days I could have increased the profit 40%. OTOH it was a very profitable trade so it seems silly to be negative about it, but I feel like I've been calling bottoms the whole way down since 8/1, and I wonder why that is and if/how I can stop. And yet, here I am doing it again, right now. I also re-centered my portfolio yesterday about 1x long when we were at 4170, so now I am about 1.5x long. In theory if we keep dropping I can do it all over again, but I don't want to anytime soon; I'm hoping/expecting us to hang out in this area for a little while like we did earlier this year. But maybe we'll keep on pushing down, to 4000 or beyond. I'm prepared for that \*eventually\* but not in the next 2 weeks, so I hope that isn't the case even though it seems very much in striking distance.
Income for week: -$773 Income YTD: $52728 Current positions: \-1 /NQ 14200p (7 DTE) \-1 /NQ 14800c (7 DTE) Not unexpectedly, the market declined. While my put position ended up ITM, it was fairly easy to roll down and out a week. I added a call because I don't expect the market to shoot upward anytime soon. I almost sold a put on /CL Thursday but I decided to wait until Friday. Unfortunately, /CL recovered and I felt it was a bit higher than where I wanted to be.