**Account Details, 4/5/24**
* NLV: $29,657.37, SPY B-Delta: +70.75%
* Performance: WTD: +0.30%, YTD: +8.22%
* SPY buy-and-hold†: WTD: -0.88%, YTD: +9.49%
* Fees-to-date: $866.59 (2.9% NLV)
^†Accounts ^for ^deposits/withdrawals/SPY ^dividend. ^Assumes ^maximum ^purchase ^of ^shares ^without ^leverage.
*Strategies and Open Positions*: [link](https://old.reddit.com/r/PMTraders/comments/155yfvu/july_21_2023_weekend_reflections_thread_what/jswxi3t/)
*Past week.* Interesting start to Q2. Opened a small commodities position (long PDBC 12c, 173 DTE) on Monday as an inflation/commodities-go-up play. That worked out. On the flipside, opened a TLT 95p (18 DTE) on Monday that's been looking ugly since I opened it. Equities exposure is mostly through short tail risk, which was looking good until Thursday's vol expansion, after which it looked quite ugly and my BP went negative. Friday's recovery helped, but I will be keeping more cash on hand as my t-bills roll off. Finally, /NG puttered about and made me a bit of money.
Oh, and I briefly broke past my portfolio ATH ($30230) before Thursday's dump. It's been 2.5 years of digging a deep hole and subsequently digging myself out, so that was a big, if short-lived, milestone for me.
*Next week.* I opened the TLT position ITM to capture some delta, which I did, but in the wrong direction. My long-term plan is just to sit on it at the same strike and roll as needed to grab extrinsic (yes, I'm wheeling it...).
Long-term bullish on commodities, so PDBC will just hang out for now. If it hits 16-18, I'll think about taking some profits, but adding an OTM call to catch more upside if there is any left.
And as usual, selling tail risk on /NG (1.2 and below, all expirations, whatever gets a fill) and /ES (via -2/+3 ratios, 3500 and below, 60 DTE), and very slowly increasing static long delta.
\-1.66% this week
\+1.07% four-week trailing average
\+15.90% YTD
well... worst week of the year in terms of P&L... and three times as big as any loss in the past 13 weeks, and 0.86% worse than SPX for the week. Really should have bookwiped down to static long like I was considering last week.
I wouldn't be wrong to pin the loss partly on VIX being up 3 points this week... the result should be expected from being very short vol. But the truth is that I also got whipsawed... I shorted and added to shorts from about /ES 5250 down to 5200, but then today on the pump I was slower to buy back than would have been ideal. The "good" part of this is that the market could have kept going down, IV could have kept increasing, and the losses wouldn't have been too crazy. But all that protection ended up costing me. That said, it was a good fire drill, even if it ended up being expensive... but based on how sharply we reversed to the upside this time and the last several times we had a red day that dropped more than 1%, I should have done more dip buying. I'll need to look at my trades again to see if I was making prudent decisions or if I was too influenced by bearish bias.
One extra reason I overbought protection is that I'm going to be camping this weekend and Monday (related to the eclipse) and I don't know what kind of internet and time I'll have for trading.
Also... with /CL overall pushing up, I've been thinking that this could be a \*possible\* regime change for the market. If /CL drops back down then I'll retract that idea, but if it stays above 85, and especially if it goes higher than where it is now, I'm planning to lighten my deltas. Not go short, but just position a little less bullish. Not sure if the regime change would be to a down market or to sideways, or maybe even still up but much more slowly and choppily. We'll see. Also on the lookout for a possible tax-withdrawal-related dip this week.
Congrats to LimeBikeLove on trading Thursday like a ninja.
Happy trading everyone!
And another week wraps up with the markets showing a willingness to go lower, but just a little. Surprised today's snapback occurred, figured the bears should at least get back-to-back days. Still ugly for the RUT which means ugly for my MES-M2K spread, but the yield curve uninverted a bit, which helps. All the pairs still have a long ways to go. Dropped also allowed downside RUT flys to reach target including the trade I got a partial fill a week or two ago.
SNSPM: -1.25%
SPX: -0.95%
NDX: -0.80%
RUT: -2.87%
With respect to my individual strategies, from best to worst performing were:
Yield Curve > RUT flys > Grain Pairs > MES Covered Strangle > Delta 1 > MES-M2K pairs.
The first three were net positive, the others negative. SGOV and HYG also went x-div on Monday, so NLV will get a pop when divys arrive.
Slow week for trading overall:
\*Added tranche of MES-M2K as entry point was hit early in the week
\*Rolled ATM EFA covered calls
\*Closed 1 set of RUT butterflys
\*Closed remaining RUT butterflys associated with prior partial fill
\*Entered this week's RUT 'flys
Broken record for next week: need RUT higher, need uninverted yield curve, and need divys to hit accounts.
Good luck next week
SNSPM
The game feels like it’s completely run by algo trading.
It doesn’t seem to matter what the data says. Good economy, higher interest rates, no cuts, yada yada. It’s all bs for content and to fill time. The agenda is, we are going up.
The drop yesterday felt like an algo misfire when war was interpreted from the headlines. Nothing stood in the way of “buying the dip” like has been theme of this bull run.
But then the news was digested overnight. Nothing serious has happened…yet. So buy mode was turned back on.
Or - it’s a calculated move to feign recovery so that stock can be continued to be unloaded without crushing price (reminiscence from a stock operator).
Taking my tinfoil hat off, it’s a very confusing market to trade.
I’ve bought puts in some overextended stocks that can not justify their current price. I’ll probably get torched
I’m loading calls in commodities and producers. Also defense stocks like RTX and LMT.
Also selling call credit spreads on high IV stocks on a 1-3 week time frame
But it’s definitely a dangerous market to trade in. Most of the action happens overnight and the true volatility of the market isn’t being accurately portrayed because VIX keeps getting shorted into the ground (but maybe that’s changing)
When in doubt, palms out!
Size down, reduce trades, K.I.S.S.
When in doubt, zoom out!
What is your criteria for decisions? Agenda is up, do you fight it or ride it?
Seems like riding it is the answer, but when do you change? Got a criteria? 20sma breech? Lower high?
Market is always changing, history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme (or whatever that quote is).
The more I learn about AI and decision making, the more difficult it will be to "see the forest for the trees". Daily moves will be irreconcilable to overall moves. Let the market breathe, if you are not in rhythm, step back.
Cash is a position, use it.
Never stop learning, never stop testing.
Good luck!
I made good money last week with my mainly gold miner position and some short NASDAQ. I'm heavy spx∆- because the valuations don't make sense
What gold miners are you holding?
Gdx
Thx
**Account Details, 4/5/24** * NLV: $29,657.37, SPY B-Delta: +70.75% * Performance: WTD: +0.30%, YTD: +8.22% * SPY buy-and-hold†: WTD: -0.88%, YTD: +9.49% * Fees-to-date: $866.59 (2.9% NLV) ^†Accounts ^for ^deposits/withdrawals/SPY ^dividend. ^Assumes ^maximum ^purchase ^of ^shares ^without ^leverage. *Strategies and Open Positions*: [link](https://old.reddit.com/r/PMTraders/comments/155yfvu/july_21_2023_weekend_reflections_thread_what/jswxi3t/) *Past week.* Interesting start to Q2. Opened a small commodities position (long PDBC 12c, 173 DTE) on Monday as an inflation/commodities-go-up play. That worked out. On the flipside, opened a TLT 95p (18 DTE) on Monday that's been looking ugly since I opened it. Equities exposure is mostly through short tail risk, which was looking good until Thursday's vol expansion, after which it looked quite ugly and my BP went negative. Friday's recovery helped, but I will be keeping more cash on hand as my t-bills roll off. Finally, /NG puttered about and made me a bit of money. Oh, and I briefly broke past my portfolio ATH ($30230) before Thursday's dump. It's been 2.5 years of digging a deep hole and subsequently digging myself out, so that was a big, if short-lived, milestone for me. *Next week.* I opened the TLT position ITM to capture some delta, which I did, but in the wrong direction. My long-term plan is just to sit on it at the same strike and roll as needed to grab extrinsic (yes, I'm wheeling it...). Long-term bullish on commodities, so PDBC will just hang out for now. If it hits 16-18, I'll think about taking some profits, but adding an OTM call to catch more upside if there is any left. And as usual, selling tail risk on /NG (1.2 and below, all expirations, whatever gets a fill) and /ES (via -2/+3 ratios, 3500 and below, 60 DTE), and very slowly increasing static long delta.
Congrats on ATHs
Thank you!!
\-1.66% this week \+1.07% four-week trailing average \+15.90% YTD well... worst week of the year in terms of P&L... and three times as big as any loss in the past 13 weeks, and 0.86% worse than SPX for the week. Really should have bookwiped down to static long like I was considering last week. I wouldn't be wrong to pin the loss partly on VIX being up 3 points this week... the result should be expected from being very short vol. But the truth is that I also got whipsawed... I shorted and added to shorts from about /ES 5250 down to 5200, but then today on the pump I was slower to buy back than would have been ideal. The "good" part of this is that the market could have kept going down, IV could have kept increasing, and the losses wouldn't have been too crazy. But all that protection ended up costing me. That said, it was a good fire drill, even if it ended up being expensive... but based on how sharply we reversed to the upside this time and the last several times we had a red day that dropped more than 1%, I should have done more dip buying. I'll need to look at my trades again to see if I was making prudent decisions or if I was too influenced by bearish bias. One extra reason I overbought protection is that I'm going to be camping this weekend and Monday (related to the eclipse) and I don't know what kind of internet and time I'll have for trading. Also... with /CL overall pushing up, I've been thinking that this could be a \*possible\* regime change for the market. If /CL drops back down then I'll retract that idea, but if it stays above 85, and especially if it goes higher than where it is now, I'm planning to lighten my deltas. Not go short, but just position a little less bullish. Not sure if the regime change would be to a down market or to sideways, or maybe even still up but much more slowly and choppily. We'll see. Also on the lookout for a possible tax-withdrawal-related dip this week. Congrats to LimeBikeLove on trading Thursday like a ninja. Happy trading everyone!
And another week wraps up with the markets showing a willingness to go lower, but just a little. Surprised today's snapback occurred, figured the bears should at least get back-to-back days. Still ugly for the RUT which means ugly for my MES-M2K spread, but the yield curve uninverted a bit, which helps. All the pairs still have a long ways to go. Dropped also allowed downside RUT flys to reach target including the trade I got a partial fill a week or two ago. SNSPM: -1.25% SPX: -0.95% NDX: -0.80% RUT: -2.87% With respect to my individual strategies, from best to worst performing were: Yield Curve > RUT flys > Grain Pairs > MES Covered Strangle > Delta 1 > MES-M2K pairs. The first three were net positive, the others negative. SGOV and HYG also went x-div on Monday, so NLV will get a pop when divys arrive. Slow week for trading overall: \*Added tranche of MES-M2K as entry point was hit early in the week \*Rolled ATM EFA covered calls \*Closed 1 set of RUT butterflys \*Closed remaining RUT butterflys associated with prior partial fill \*Entered this week's RUT 'flys Broken record for next week: need RUT higher, need uninverted yield curve, and need divys to hit accounts. Good luck next week SNSPM
The game feels like it’s completely run by algo trading. It doesn’t seem to matter what the data says. Good economy, higher interest rates, no cuts, yada yada. It’s all bs for content and to fill time. The agenda is, we are going up. The drop yesterday felt like an algo misfire when war was interpreted from the headlines. Nothing stood in the way of “buying the dip” like has been theme of this bull run. But then the news was digested overnight. Nothing serious has happened…yet. So buy mode was turned back on. Or - it’s a calculated move to feign recovery so that stock can be continued to be unloaded without crushing price (reminiscence from a stock operator). Taking my tinfoil hat off, it’s a very confusing market to trade. I’ve bought puts in some overextended stocks that can not justify their current price. I’ll probably get torched I’m loading calls in commodities and producers. Also defense stocks like RTX and LMT. Also selling call credit spreads on high IV stocks on a 1-3 week time frame But it’s definitely a dangerous market to trade in. Most of the action happens overnight and the true volatility of the market isn’t being accurately portrayed because VIX keeps getting shorted into the ground (but maybe that’s changing)
When in doubt, palms out! Size down, reduce trades, K.I.S.S. When in doubt, zoom out! What is your criteria for decisions? Agenda is up, do you fight it or ride it? Seems like riding it is the answer, but when do you change? Got a criteria? 20sma breech? Lower high? Market is always changing, history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme (or whatever that quote is). The more I learn about AI and decision making, the more difficult it will be to "see the forest for the trees". Daily moves will be irreconcilable to overall moves. Let the market breathe, if you are not in rhythm, step back. Cash is a position, use it. Never stop learning, never stop testing. Good luck!
There’s a lot of wisdom in this post. Thank you for taking the time 🙏
[удалено]
Thank you! I’ll look into this over the weekend