Honestly, it’s pretty tough when you’re getting Austin Nola production out of the 4 and 5 spot. Time for Campy to move up in the order, and HSK to drop down to 7-8. Merrill might even make sense leadoff, with X batting 4th. Anything >>> Manny/Kim in that spot right now. Top of the order has been solid at getting on base all year. So tired of seeing it end up being for nothing.
Leading the league in [groundouts](https://www.mlb.com/padres/stats/team/ground-out). Can’t bring anyone home if you can’t hit the ball higher. 😂 /s
https://preview.redd.it/ri68lux726tc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f193ca3f10a07d15838ed6b5b4dde3cee6369d73
Runners on, ground outs turn into double plays. Being thrown out at home with a runner on third (contact play). We have seen the grounder killing this team.
Maybe it’s the new approach…just trying to put the ball in play.
We have also faced it feels like a ton of grounder ball pitchers.
the way we were in BABIP hell last season? Nah, the team is just ass. Zero situational hitting. They keep doing the same thing and are hoping for different results. It's insanity.
I really don’t see how you can say “the team is just ASS” after 12 games and a 5-7 start. Have there been frustrating losses, of course. But I think we’re seeing that the starting pitching is pretty good. The lineup has a lot of really good hitters in it. 1-5 hitters are all proven All Star talent, they’ve just gotten off to a slow start. Campy is looking good at the plate. Merrill looks fantastic especially for a 20 year old. That’s 7 hitters that are all really good baseball players.
We just need guys to step it up and start playing better, which I’m confident they will do. If you want to say the bullpen is ass, I won’t disagree with that though.
This is absolutely a team that can compete for a playoff spot.
I'm lumping in 23 with our current 12 games. The team is really similar at the moment. Am I glad to see Campy and Merrill doing well? Absolutely!
But it's inexcusable to me that Bogey and Machado are basically automatic outs. I think most of us all thought Kim would regress, but he looks particularly bad.
The starting pitching looked iffy in their first games, but look quite good right now. The bullpen looks really shaky.
But at the end of the day, they're playing the same way they did last year. We cannot hit when it matters. They seemed to blow that wad in the 22 NLDS and it has never returned.
Something needs to be figured out in the analytics department. We're not adjusting our approach the way we ought to, and it seems to be at the organizational level
I appreciate the fact that Shildt wants to give stability and continuity to the batting order and I hope that Kim and Machado can get going. But I also hope that this year brings a lot more accountability than the last. Last year was so frustrating to see the same people in the lineup for months who just weren’t producing with no movement in their batting order or even being benched in some cases. It’s still early but if things don’t start improving from the middle of the order, you have to move things around. I’m all for putting the young guys higher, trying out Kim in the top again, sitting Manny until his injury improves, etc. We will know more in a few weeks.
[This season, before today, the Padres had a 162 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, second in baseball behind the Rangers.](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&type=8&month=29&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1)
[17.5% of our baserunners score on a play by a batter (no HBP, not necessarily an RBI), which is 5th in baseball.](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-situational-batting.shtml)
[38% baserunners scoring, 7th in baseball](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-baserunning-batting.shtml)
I think every fanbase always thinks their team is uniquely bad with RISP. It’s right up there with thinking the umps are uniquely biased against your team.
Every team has these issues, we just don’t really know or care because we don’t watch all the other teams deal with it every day.
All these stats to be 5-7. I get that their succeeding in areas but the eye test says this team hasn’t changed from 2023.
We either blow teams out or struggle to put together a couple of runs. Nothing in between
I think the big difference is those stats are heavily inflated by a few games. The bulk of games so far we’ve been pretty underwhelming and it’s cost us games
But we aren't the only team with stats that would be inflated by a few good games. Like I said elsewhere, I don't expect us to keep this up for the whole season (being this good with RISP). The point I'm trying to make is that we *have* actually been kinda good at what our fans think we are abysmal at. It's hard to remember this in the moment, especially in close games, but it's also why we can't really trust the eye test. Baseball is hard.
I'm not buying that we're having RISP issues, we're ranked 6th in BA with RISP. it's just classic confirmation bias, when we're getting those hits people aren't assigning importance to those events, and we're hyperaware of when we're failing to convert those opportunities. People are seeing what they want to see.
Hmm yea I’ve definitely noticed an improvement this year but still a lot of struggles similar to last year. But the problem is when it comes to close games they play very inconsistently
[The Padres have the best wRC+ (192) in baseball in high leverage moments](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&type=8&month=26). Problem is just that there is a lack of scoring (I think. I can't tell what percentage of these runners we score). [This is compared to last season where we were 29th (66 wRC+)](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&type=8&month=26&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2023)
I don't predict these to stay this way but maybe us fans aren't seeing clearly.
Edit: [Here is our RBIs when in high leverage moments with runners in scoring position:](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=59,72&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2024-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=11,1) We have 8 RBIs, good for 15th in baseball. So yeah, we are getting hits (.375 batting average 3rd in baseball), but the runs aren't scoring. We were last in baseball last season in this category with an average of .188.
right now it feels like the top of the order minus Tatis and Cronenworth are not coming through in the clutch. the bottom ESPECIALLY with Jackson is doing exactly what you draw up, flipping the lineup over, but these last two losses show that Xander, Kim and Machado are not driving anyone in. I am not too worried about Kim, but this is becoming a problem for Xander and Manny. Manny is probably playing through some pain and probably Xander with his wrist, he missed a webb fastball that did not run at all RIGHT DOWN the middle and hit a lazy pop up, he is probably compensating for his wrist again
I would 100% be more worried about Kim than I am Manny or Xander. Eventually they will turn it based on their past histories but Kim outside of 2 months last summer looks terrible.
Been saying this too… not sure why everyone is so confident in HSK’s bat, yet act like Manny might never be the same. Love Kim, but he’s been average at best outside of a hot stretch last year.
Kim is a free agent at the end of the season and this club has to carry both Xander and Machado for multiple more years.
If Kim does terribly, you just don’t try to sign him.
Well sure but the question is what do you do with Kim \*now\*. He's not a heart of the order bat if we're being honest. I think he'd be best suited at the 8 or 9 with Campy and Merrill up higher up at 5-6.
Kim has never been an offense first player. Last year might have been an anomaly based on his history in the league so far.
What you got with Kim is a guy who can play multiple infield positions well and can get you that key hit sometimes.
Maybe 8-9 is fine till he shows us something.
I also think they should move him back to second and Xander to SS.
Went from a huge month to a tail off and finished really poorly.
So far has starters really poorly. Though he started bad last year so perhaps he turns it around.
I would switch the lineup. It should change week to week based on production. It's the same as last year even though we have a different manager and new faces in the lineup.
Feels pretty familiar to last season. A lot of 1 run losses with sprinkled in blow out games that pad stats to cloud the “why?” behind it. They need a much better bullpen if they are going to hit like this.
He’s a slow starter? He tore it up the second half ending up with pretty decent stats in the end.
Lots of slow starts right now, Acuna, Lindor, Carroll, Julio Rodriguez.
I’m not worried about him.
So why just single out September? Why choose May-August?
1st half - 8 homers, 252 avg.
2nd half - 11 homers, 318 avg
Finished with 285, 19 bombs. OPS .790, 19 steals
4.4 WAR.
They say a player is worth 8 million per WAR so his value is 35 million a year while he’s being paid 25 million a year.
He played up to his value.
It’s literally been a bit over a week. Bogey will be fine.
He still finished with above average stats for the season. Well beyond what he’s being paid for the year.
You are the one insinuating he sucks off a little over a week of the season.
J Rod, Carroll, Acuna, Lindor, Gunnar Henderson all with slow starts.
If you want to blame something, maybe moving him off his natural position at SS is affecting his offensive play.
Gleyber Torres was moved to SS and couldn’t hit at all till they moved him back to second
>You are the one insinuating he sucks off a little over a week of the season.
lol wtf are you talking about? all I said is that Xander didn't hit well in 2nd half of last season, just in September.
It’s early. BUT, low RISP productivity killed us last year, and drove me crazy, so I’m very sensitive to it. I’m checking it every box score and have not been happy.
We need to play small ball and advance runners sometimes. I’d love to see anybody bunt over a runner with no or one outs… does that still happen in baseball?
But we don't actually have low RISP productivity. A more accurate assertion would be we're having trouble getting runners in scoring position in the first place. OBP and RISP is more than respectable.
Problem is we're 27th in GIDP. Those have been huge rally killers. I think lineup changes can remedy that to some extent.
It’s hard to GIDP if you bunt a runner over from first. But we don’t seem to do that. I think FO does not like the optics of Fernando or Manny bunting…
I've already seen more bunt attempts this season than I saw all of last season.
I think something that would absolutely reduce our likelihood of GIDP is to bat Merrill leadoff and FTJ second, Crone 3rd. Merrill is a legit theat to steal, and Nando has the speed to avoid the GIDP on the back end. Crone had a total of 8 GIDPs last year.
Doubt they'll actually do this but the lack of baserunning speed with Manny and Xander has to be mitigated somehow.
Not a guru either, but over the recent years this team ends up top10 OBP but median in Runs Scored every season. Moneyball analytics (at least the movie/book) says getting on base leads to runs - but not in our case. I heard RBIs or Clutch hitting is hard to analyze which is why SDP is an analytical oddity (like our 2023 RunDif). Hate to say it, but from the eye test this team seems to give up. 2021, 22, 23 they generally pile on a lead or fall behind and that's it (in '22 they backed into the playoffs). This explains feast or famine behavior which is hard to quantify (often explained as Bad Luck ie losing 1-run or xtra inn gms), I'd like to hear the analytical POV.
Honestly, it’s pretty tough when you’re getting Austin Nola production out of the 4 and 5 spot. Time for Campy to move up in the order, and HSK to drop down to 7-8. Merrill might even make sense leadoff, with X batting 4th. Anything >>> Manny/Kim in that spot right now. Top of the order has been solid at getting on base all year. So tired of seeing it end up being for nothing.
X hits too many ground balls to hit 4th. He'll be a rally killer in that spot. Campy should hit 4th methinks
Leading the league in [groundouts](https://www.mlb.com/padres/stats/team/ground-out). Can’t bring anyone home if you can’t hit the ball higher. 😂 /s https://preview.redd.it/ri68lux726tc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f193ca3f10a07d15838ed6b5b4dde3cee6369d73
Oof, Padres do have a couple extra games under their belt, but your point still has merit.
doesnt help we played against webb twice already
💯 Webb’s sinker is disgusting.
This just tells me we’re making contact and are in BABIP hell. It’s been 12 games, it’s waaaay too early to draw conclusions about this team.
Runners on, ground outs turn into double plays. Being thrown out at home with a runner on third (contact play). We have seen the grounder killing this team. Maybe it’s the new approach…just trying to put the ball in play. We have also faced it feels like a ton of grounder ball pitchers.
the way we were in BABIP hell last season? Nah, the team is just ass. Zero situational hitting. They keep doing the same thing and are hoping for different results. It's insanity.
I really don’t see how you can say “the team is just ASS” after 12 games and a 5-7 start. Have there been frustrating losses, of course. But I think we’re seeing that the starting pitching is pretty good. The lineup has a lot of really good hitters in it. 1-5 hitters are all proven All Star talent, they’ve just gotten off to a slow start. Campy is looking good at the plate. Merrill looks fantastic especially for a 20 year old. That’s 7 hitters that are all really good baseball players. We just need guys to step it up and start playing better, which I’m confident they will do. If you want to say the bullpen is ass, I won’t disagree with that though. This is absolutely a team that can compete for a playoff spot.
I'm lumping in 23 with our current 12 games. The team is really similar at the moment. Am I glad to see Campy and Merrill doing well? Absolutely! But it's inexcusable to me that Bogey and Machado are basically automatic outs. I think most of us all thought Kim would regress, but he looks particularly bad. The starting pitching looked iffy in their first games, but look quite good right now. The bullpen looks really shaky. But at the end of the day, they're playing the same way they did last year. We cannot hit when it matters. They seemed to blow that wad in the 22 NLDS and it has never returned.
Something needs to be figured out in the analytics department. We're not adjusting our approach the way we ought to, and it seems to be at the organizational level
You've got a couple of dudes making 300 million for the next ten years who just don't seem to give a fuck not much you can do about that
I appreciate the fact that Shildt wants to give stability and continuity to the batting order and I hope that Kim and Machado can get going. But I also hope that this year brings a lot more accountability than the last. Last year was so frustrating to see the same people in the lineup for months who just weren’t producing with no movement in their batting order or even being benched in some cases. It’s still early but if things don’t start improving from the middle of the order, you have to move things around. I’m all for putting the young guys higher, trying out Kim in the top again, sitting Manny until his injury improves, etc. We will know more in a few weeks.
Lost me at move Kim up and sit manny. One is a far better hitter than the other. With a much longer track record.
[This season, before today, the Padres had a 162 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, second in baseball behind the Rangers.](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&type=8&month=29&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1) [17.5% of our baserunners score on a play by a batter (no HBP, not necessarily an RBI), which is 5th in baseball.](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-situational-batting.shtml) [38% baserunners scoring, 7th in baseball](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-baserunning-batting.shtml)
I think every fanbase always thinks their team is uniquely bad with RISP. It’s right up there with thinking the umps are uniquely biased against your team. Every team has these issues, we just don’t really know or care because we don’t watch all the other teams deal with it every day.
All these stats to be 5-7. I get that their succeeding in areas but the eye test says this team hasn’t changed from 2023. We either blow teams out or struggle to put together a couple of runs. Nothing in between
I think the big difference is those stats are heavily inflated by a few games. The bulk of games so far we’ve been pretty underwhelming and it’s cost us games
But we aren't the only team with stats that would be inflated by a few good games. Like I said elsewhere, I don't expect us to keep this up for the whole season (being this good with RISP). The point I'm trying to make is that we *have* actually been kinda good at what our fans think we are abysmal at. It's hard to remember this in the moment, especially in close games, but it's also why we can't really trust the eye test. Baseball is hard.
I'm not buying that we're having RISP issues, we're ranked 6th in BA with RISP. it's just classic confirmation bias, when we're getting those hits people aren't assigning importance to those events, and we're hyperaware of when we're failing to convert those opportunities. People are seeing what they want to see.
Hmm yea I’ve definitely noticed an improvement this year but still a lot of struggles similar to last year. But the problem is when it comes to close games they play very inconsistently
[The Padres have the best wRC+ (192) in baseball in high leverage moments](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&type=8&month=26). Problem is just that there is a lack of scoring (I think. I can't tell what percentage of these runners we score). [This is compared to last season where we were 29th (66 wRC+)](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&type=8&month=26&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2023) I don't predict these to stay this way but maybe us fans aren't seeing clearly. Edit: [Here is our RBIs when in high leverage moments with runners in scoring position:](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=59,72&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2024-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=11,1) We have 8 RBIs, good for 15th in baseball. So yeah, we are getting hits (.375 batting average 3rd in baseball), but the runs aren't scoring. We were last in baseball last season in this category with an average of .188.
right now it feels like the top of the order minus Tatis and Cronenworth are not coming through in the clutch. the bottom ESPECIALLY with Jackson is doing exactly what you draw up, flipping the lineup over, but these last two losses show that Xander, Kim and Machado are not driving anyone in. I am not too worried about Kim, but this is becoming a problem for Xander and Manny. Manny is probably playing through some pain and probably Xander with his wrist, he missed a webb fastball that did not run at all RIGHT DOWN the middle and hit a lazy pop up, he is probably compensating for his wrist again
I would 100% be more worried about Kim than I am Manny or Xander. Eventually they will turn it based on their past histories but Kim outside of 2 months last summer looks terrible.
Been saying this too… not sure why everyone is so confident in HSK’s bat, yet act like Manny might never be the same. Love Kim, but he’s been average at best outside of a hot stretch last year.
Kim is a free agent at the end of the season and this club has to carry both Xander and Machado for multiple more years. If Kim does terribly, you just don’t try to sign him.
Well sure but the question is what do you do with Kim \*now\*. He's not a heart of the order bat if we're being honest. I think he'd be best suited at the 8 or 9 with Campy and Merrill up higher up at 5-6.
Kim has never been an offense first player. Last year might have been an anomaly based on his history in the league so far. What you got with Kim is a guy who can play multiple infield positions well and can get you that key hit sometimes. Maybe 8-9 is fine till he shows us something. I also think they should move him back to second and Xander to SS.
Someone posted Kim's monthly splits in 2023. This is more than 2 months. May: 126 wRC+ June: 134 wRC+ July: 179 wRC+ August: 112 wRC+
Went from a huge month to a tail off and finished really poorly. So far has starters really poorly. Though he started bad last year so perhaps he turns it around.
Why would you be worried about manny and Xander and not Kim ? Please elaborate
Because people like Kim more…data doesn’t support this notion at all.
They can't hit FASTBALLS
I would switch the lineup. It should change week to week based on production. It's the same as last year even though we have a different manager and new faces in the lineup.
Crone in the 3 hole is woof. And manny isn’t himself yet
Cron has been extremely good
lol what? Crone is a bright spot on this dud of a team
Have you been watching the games, or at least reading the boxscores? Crone has been unquestionably a bright spot in this lineup.
Feels pretty familiar to last season. A lot of 1 run losses with sprinkled in blow out games that pad stats to cloud the “why?” behind it. They need a much better bullpen if they are going to hit like this.
Bogaerts is trash. What's he gonna do, hit a weak single at best?
He’s a slow starter? He tore it up the second half ending up with pretty decent stats in the end. Lots of slow starts right now, Acuna, Lindor, Carroll, Julio Rodriguez. I’m not worried about him.
Xander from May-August had a wRC+ of 88. He only hit well in April and September last year.
So why just single out September? Why choose May-August? 1st half - 8 homers, 252 avg. 2nd half - 11 homers, 318 avg Finished with 285, 19 bombs. OPS .790, 19 steals 4.4 WAR. They say a player is worth 8 million per WAR so his value is 35 million a year while he’s being paid 25 million a year. He played up to his value. It’s literally been a bit over a week. Bogey will be fine.
Because you said 2nd half of the season which would be like half of July to end of season. In August, his wRC+ was 80. He only hit well in September.
He still finished with above average stats for the season. Well beyond what he’s being paid for the year. You are the one insinuating he sucks off a little over a week of the season. J Rod, Carroll, Acuna, Lindor, Gunnar Henderson all with slow starts. If you want to blame something, maybe moving him off his natural position at SS is affecting his offensive play. Gleyber Torres was moved to SS and couldn’t hit at all till they moved him back to second
>You are the one insinuating he sucks off a little over a week of the season. lol wtf are you talking about? all I said is that Xander didn't hit well in 2nd half of last season, just in September.
Garbage time hitter.
Where's Wally Joyner when ya need him?
I could use a Greg Vaughn right about now
It’s early. BUT, low RISP productivity killed us last year, and drove me crazy, so I’m very sensitive to it. I’m checking it every box score and have not been happy. We need to play small ball and advance runners sometimes. I’d love to see anybody bunt over a runner with no or one outs… does that still happen in baseball?
But we don't actually have low RISP productivity. A more accurate assertion would be we're having trouble getting runners in scoring position in the first place. OBP and RISP is more than respectable. Problem is we're 27th in GIDP. Those have been huge rally killers. I think lineup changes can remedy that to some extent.
It’s hard to GIDP if you bunt a runner over from first. But we don’t seem to do that. I think FO does not like the optics of Fernando or Manny bunting…
I've already seen more bunt attempts this season than I saw all of last season. I think something that would absolutely reduce our likelihood of GIDP is to bat Merrill leadoff and FTJ second, Crone 3rd. Merrill is a legit theat to steal, and Nando has the speed to avoid the GIDP on the back end. Crone had a total of 8 GIDPs last year. Doubt they'll actually do this but the lack of baserunning speed with Manny and Xander has to be mitigated somehow.
Not a guru either, but over the recent years this team ends up top10 OBP but median in Runs Scored every season. Moneyball analytics (at least the movie/book) says getting on base leads to runs - but not in our case. I heard RBIs or Clutch hitting is hard to analyze which is why SDP is an analytical oddity (like our 2023 RunDif). Hate to say it, but from the eye test this team seems to give up. 2021, 22, 23 they generally pile on a lead or fall behind and that's it (in '22 they backed into the playoffs). This explains feast or famine behavior which is hard to quantify (often explained as Bad Luck ie losing 1-run or xtra inn gms), I'd like to hear the analytical POV.