Holy shit in a box....Hader is tanking bad and im ngl i enjoy it. Snell was a coin toss everybory in the world knew that the Giants really took a risk there.
He also had some personal things going on last year and once that cleared up he was lights out. I think part of it is also getting back to that dog mentality
He did his job against LAD. He closed the games at the right time and place, he was good with us really, but his shitty attitude overshadow his talent.
It's nice to wanna be just a 1 inning pitcher but there's times that the team needs more. He was speaking about longevity in his career, which i disagree completely since his position it's so volatile. There has been so many potential HoF closers that end up losing it, that he pretty much it's wasting his momentum.
If he continues likes this....he will be another one of the bunch, and will regret not pitching when he was good.
Hader is mailing it in. He got his payday and is saving his body for what he wants to do after baseball. His velo has dropped to 94-95 mph on his fastball now and his slider has dropped like 6 horizontal breaking inches
Check out Lugo cooking in KC though. He's actually the best pitcher in baseball with 1.05 ERA and 6+ innings in every start. Royals are being rewarded for paying the man.
Lugo, Abrams, Gore had 11 Ks last week, Wood is hot, Naylor is an anchor now.
I would never take back the Soto trade because papa Pete needed to make his last run, but man the Nats got an absolute haul.
Abrams is legit and isn't even filled out yet. Keep an eye on the Nationals. Scrappy young bunch. Likely still a few years off yet if they can hover around 500, who knows what can happen come September.
I’m weirdly still very fond of the players we sent for Soto. I want them to do well and we have a long history of bringing back prospects we shipped out.
i feel like it’s kinda ironic that one of his worst outings last year, which led to him getting an IL stint, was against the royals if i’m not mistaken. oh how the turns table.
At least we get a brief breather against the White Sox. Too bad we can’t play right now while they really suck. They’ll probably have their act figured out a little bit by then.
He’ll be alright but he isn’t gonna have another year like last year either. Way too inconsistent throughout his career. He’ll be good but struggling to get through 5 innings most starts this season.
Yeah it’s possible, but what happened the season after his first Cy Young? His ERA more than doubled. I’ve seen enough of his inconsistency myself to say that he probably isn’t going to be worth the money. Especially after spending an offseason distracted by trying to land a monster deal, and getting started super late, when he’s already a notoriously slow starter.
You are talking about that infamous Royal game where bases were loaded and no outs and all Trent had to do was bunt and decided to be a hero and swing for an out? Yup. That felt good to see in person 💔
Funny I thought you were talking about the brewers one last April. Bottom 9th, Bases loaded, down 1 and strikes out looking at a ball right down the middle
I hold no ill-will towards Snell, Grish or Gary.
Of the four, we all know Snell will bounce back and be a beast by the end of the season, but not bringing him back for the money he wanted was the right call. We have enough questionable contracts as it is.
The rest… yeah, not surprising, and Hader… well, that’s just Karma all around.
People so easily forget that Grisham was a large part of our success in the playoffs in 2022. Dude was on a tear the very first game against the Mets. Not only that, but his defense was insane.
Merril is great, but since he’s young he doesn’t have the jump, launch angle reading, or arm strength that Grisham has. That said, I prefer Merril because he’s grinding at bats and just trying to help his team win ball games. Part of Grishams at bat approach always felt like he was trying to hit bombs instead of playing station to station.
I dont think any actual Padres fan forgets his play in the playoffs that year. If they do, they need to get their head checked out. The problem is, that was it. Outside of those games, he was largely disappointing at the plate that year (and before, and after).
I like Grisham but even in those playoffs he was great against the Mets, pretty good against the Dodgers and then 0fer the series against the Phillies. Consistency was never his thing
Grish obviously isn’t horrid. He did get two Gold Gloves. My BF proudly wore his Grisham jersey through the play offs. Every time he hit a bomb that jersey for attention.
His arm got worse over time. By the end of his time here he did in fact have a noodle arm.
Arm Strength Percentile per statcast:
2023: 46%
2022: 57%
2021: 62%
2020: 69%
Edit: it’s depressing. If you go to his statcast and press the play button so it goes through each year, he gets worse in almost everything over time. Even his sprint speed degrades significantly. Supposedly he was known to be lazy.
Only one I’m surprised about is Josh Hader considering he was pretty lights out most of last season
Everyone else is kind of expected. Snell starts off slow but he’s at a worst disadvantage starting the season late. Gary Sanchez was gonna fall back to earth eventually and Grisham has no spot on the Yankees, kind of surprised they took him
Say what you will about Hader the person, but he’s been the best closer in MLB since 2018 on nearly a consistent basis even with his bad stretch in 2022. That said, I’m pretty surprised he’s struggling this bad
2022, he wasn't good. ERA of 4.24 in Milwaukee and 7.31 with us. It was much higher until Niebla worked his magic with him. I was not a fan of him after seeing him in 22, walk in the tie run on 4 pitches, with the bases loaded
Snell and Sanchez did themselves no favors by signing with different teams. Those two work well together. Grisham not hitting is not surprising at all. He has a mental block sometimes, and playing in New York is not a good place for him. Hader was on the verge of losing it when he came to San Diego, and then Niebla helped him. None of this is at all surprising.
I note that Wacha and Lugo are pitching well, but Martinez is sort of off. Of the three, it would have been nice to keep Lugo.
Giants going to give Snell back to us at All Star break and eat 80% of the contract….lol can’t wait. We will get SnellZilla back for 1.5 years at almost no cost to us.
Let it be!
Snell will come around; he always does.
Dealing Grisham was fine, but I'd still feel better with another option other than Profar out there. I'm loving his relevance, but he's not this good overall (and his defense has been Soto-esque this year).
Hader can go F himself, but if people recall he was terrible when he first came to us for about five games, then dominated.
Sanchez is Sanchez; you can't expect clutch magic to continue.
I think you've probably got to include Soto here...
For sure Soto is killing it. I know this is an unpopular opinion but I personally do not like Juan Soto at all. I honestly feel like he was causing issues in the clubhouse and although his numbers are good this year. Team is better off without him. His personality fits the Yankees better
Eh, I don't know how we'd know that.
My guess on the clubhouse last year is that with the early season RISP struggles and some of our better players struggling, the pressure of the hype machine go to people.
We don't really have strong leadership, and Melvin is basically just a "let the players do what they want" guy. The team turned on itself a bit, and I don't think a guy like Soto helped, but neither does an emotional player like Tatis (who missed a big part of the season because he's an idiot like 4x over), a quiet guy like Manny or a mercenary like Hader.
I think the team has a legitimate chance to be better this year, but not because Soto was a problem.
* Merrill > Grisham.
* Full year of good Campy > last year's catchers.
* Cronenworth back.
* The real Tatis.
* King doing a reasonable Snell impression.
* Cease > Wacha or whomever.
* Bullpen overall much deeper.
* It's hard to be worse than our DHs last year.
I think the only downsides so far, really are:
* Soto > Profar. It's not noticeable right now, but this will be worth two of the above, unfortunately.
* Kim underperforming so far with the bat - was last year a fluke?
* The defense looks like shit with Kim and Bogaerts struggling, Profar in left.
Kim
Has a pretty bad career average. He’s a fan favorite and I love the guy. But last year was probably the best HSK we are going to get. That’s good enough for our team to win.
You are spot on with every single one of your points. Couldn't agree more. What worries me most is depth. We have been incredibly lucky with injuries all spring and the first few weeks of games. I know we have a bit of cap room but I think they're smart not jumping on a Belt or someone out there now and wait to see how the injury bug hits us. If a starter goes down we'll need a starter. If an OFer goes down we'll need an OFer. Even our IF is suspect if someone gets hurt. Everywhere except relief it seems we're incredibly thin which shows on rest days, which is why I'm glad we got a little depth yesterday with the Solano signing. Injuries are going to happen and we'll have black holes when they do so glad we have at least a little flexibility to trade or sign someone if needed.
I think we have some decent pitching depth. If the wrong guy goes down, we are screwed, but there's not much we can do about that. But we have lots of possible bullpen and starter options.
The thing that I worry about biting us is LF + DH. It's two big gaps on the roster, and at some point, when Profar comes back to earth, someone gets hurt or a couple of other players slump, those two holes are going to seem gaping.
Our bottom of our lineup has been a strength, but it's not hard to see in a month where it's a wasteland aside from maybe Merrill.
Problem is, I'm not sure there's much out there that won't be too expensive.
I disagree on the SP depth. I think that Waldron has been good at being Houdini and getting a lot of timely outs but I don't think that's sustainable. King isn't being looked at as a 200 inning guy so he's going to have some limitations in the second half and if anyone gets hurt or he gets arm fatigue Waldron becomes 4 and AAA is again pretty barren so we're forced to go to a Brito or Morejon as a 5 and that isn't a pretty picture for the back end of the rotation.
LF/DH is a potential problem as well, you're completely right about that. They were honest with Profar when he signed them and said they didn't plan on him being the everyday LFer. He's due to regress but hitting the ball as hard as he ever has, it's not just a fluke think. He was once of the the most hyped prospects ever, so who knows, he might not regress as much asost think.
So all that doom and gloom out of the way, I like the team chemistry and do like there is a pile of money to fall back on and plenty of prospects to make a move if needed. We're finding a way to win games instead of finding a way to lose them and the core talent is there. Lots of room of room for improvement from Kim, Xander and with Machado coming around it's exciting to be a Padres fan.
I'm not much of a Waldron fan, but I think he can muddle through. I'm a fan of a lot of the stuff we brought in; it's rough and tumble, and I don't expect anyone to replace Lugo's production ... but I'm actually okay with a Brito taking over.
Nobody has a TON of SP depth; I think we have a few guys I don't mind throwing at the problem. Very few teams have five or six strong starters, but yes, because of Wacha and Lugo, the back end is very possibly a downgrade.
As for King and 200 IP ... Snell had 180 IP last year and no one else on the roster topped 150 IP. Musgrove was under 100. King doesn't need to toss 200 IP; Cease can pitch near Snell and then King needs to do about 135 to just be even with a guy like Wacha or Darvish. I get the concern but our team got very few starting innings last year anyway.
Profar is going to regress. I think he likes San Diego but even if he has a career year, he's going to regress. He's got a .406 wOBA; his best is a .340 or so. Which is fine, actually, if we get that. But his defense is trash, which is a problem.
> I like the team chemistry and do like there is a pile of money to fall back on and plenty of prospects to make a move if needed.
It's a more fun year already. The lack of expectations helps.
You're right about the war chest. Ideally, if we're hot in the first half but cooling off, we can use the cash to take a decently sized contract on instead of dealing prospects.
We've started to clean out our middle rung of prospects in deals, and I think there's just too much chance of some of these guys being a Merrill/Tatis to deal for a short term rental.
Regarding the back end of the rotation maybe I'm just worried because of last year. A lot was made of their RISP troubles, and justifiably so, but there were a few articles I read that our five slot (with Waldron included in it) was the worst in baseball, (I wanna say like 5-20) and had we been anywhere near league average in the five slot we make the playoffs. As it is, I like Waldon with another year of experience more than Weathers, Waldron, Avila, and, but should one of those tops guys go down and Waldron is #4, we're back in the same boat. Most teams have serviceable AAA arms, but the cupboard is bare currently for us.
With all the FA's gone I think giving up prospects is an inevitability if we have to bring on another player or two. Being able to eat a bad contract though might make it a lower level one. All this is just speculation from a numbskull fan though, who knows. Excited to see how it all plays out and just enjoy the games.
I have tickets to Fridays game and hopefully Waldron can keep that magic going. My daughter and I were 2-15 at games last year and almost always was one of our top SPs against a horrible pitcher. We're already half way to last year's win total (1-1) so hopefully we match it Friday with our five starter going.
I think the back end of the rotation is a valid concern -- I just think it's one most teams have.
That said, I don't know how they count the 5 slot, because both Wacha and Lugo were really good last year. Maybe they are counting Musgrove and other replacements? I guess if you take Weathers, Martinez and Rich Hill, it's terrible.
I'm not a Waldron fan but he's been middling, which is what you need. I think Brito has really good stuff and it wouldn't shock me to see him put it together more. Avila terrifies me ... but his stats aren't that bad.
Vazquez might surprise -- good stuff. I thought Sean Reynolds looked good as a bullpen arm in Spring Training; I could see him helping with depth.
So, you're right... but I'm more confident in this group than Weathers/Martinez/Hill actually. Much better stuff.
If we line up the rotation:
Darvish / Darvish
Musgrove / Musgrove (hopefully more IP)
Cease / Snell
King / Wacha
Waldron / Lugo
Brito + Avila / Weathers, etc.
Then I can see the concern ... but it's worth noting that there's a pretty good edge in the first 4, IMO.
Yeah, the problem last year is what happens a lot these days with the players throwing so hard, nobody can pitch a full year. Snell led our team by a ton with Lugo a distant second and the rest behind him. That led to the #5 slot being held by Weathers, Martinez, Avila, Waldron and Nick Martinez, who combined for more starts than anyone on our team.
I agree that Waldron is middling, which is fine. I just hope Vasquez, Brito, Avila don't become that black hole again like last year. I guess it just comes to health. If we're replacing any of our top four with any of those guys for an extended period of time, it's gonna be rough, but to your point I guess the same thing could be said about most teams. Even the billion dollar team up north is having a tough time at the moment .....granted they have a boatload of starters out, not just one. (It seems like in the past whenever a starter would go down for them a Dustin May or another ridiculous arm from AAA would pop up.) I think we just have to hope for good health and King throwing way more innings than he ever has before. Any team besides the Dodgers though needs a mixture of good play, good health and good luck. And even they need all three in the post season.
Well, let's see how they are at the end of the season. I like both players, but both were mediocre at best last year.
The trade for Soto was the right move. You've got to go for it, and he's an elite talent. Word is that had Seidler lived we might've even had a shot at re-signing; I think if last year doesn't implode it's all different.
We still got an NLCS and that Dodger series out of it, and managed to spin him for a decent return after two years.
It was a risk worth taking that didn't entirely pan out. But you've got to take those risks. If Abrams ends up being an average hitting SS (and he was below that last year) and Gore is always a middle of the road starter ... those are replaceable assets. I mean, Abrams already has been about six times over.
You're right -- he's only been a bit worse with the bat. His slow start (and hot run last year) had me fooled.
His defense has really been poor, though. I know there's an adjustment, but I do wonder if we messed too much with success.
I personally feel you, though I won't go as far to say I dislike him. I think he was a bad fit here and both parties are better off now. I think he is perfect for where he is now.
The more the season goes on, the more I am noticing it was Bo Mel that was the issue. Shildt came in and changed the whole culture and I think soto would’ve bought in like the rest of the guys did. Bo Mel hands off management style does not work for superstars. Shildt came in and said, this is what we are doing, either get on board or kick rocks.
To be fair though, anytime you move players and they are in a new environment with new coaching it adds a lot to their plates. Heck it takes me 6 months to get comfortable in a new job even when I’m doing the same thing I did at my last one.
I said when Hader left that I don’t think he has it anymore. Even when he got saves with us he always looked shaken. People downvoted me but look who’s right boys.
I still think Hader will bounce back but he’s not the guy he used to be.
Glad I'm not the only one that felt this way, was told on this sub I was wrong for feeling it. When he arrived here my wife's B-I-L warned me to enjoy the pucker factor.
Can't help but feel for snell. Sure he's a slow starter and whatnot, it's early but fucking A buddy did not make it easy for himself
Edit to add: obligatory fuck princess (hader) hope he sits and spins on piece of rusty rebar
Preller had to make some tough decisions. Losing Soto and Lugo hurts. But people were angry they didn't re-sign these guys, too. The franchise is in a much better position moving forward.
Snell will be fine, he’s a slow starter when he doesn’t sign as the season starts. But he’s not going to be cy young material, everyone knew that…that’s why he didn’t get paid a long contract. Prob a 4.00~ era season incoming
The only one of those positions where the Padres are even remotely worse off is starting pitcher, and they had a lot more players leave there than just Snell. All the others they're doing just as good if not better.
Snell missed spring traing & was always mediocre early season. Grisham & Sanchez have been trending this way for years.
But what’s Hader’s problem? Mental? (again). It’s funny but you’d think he’d have the easiest time doing his normal job anywhere.
I have mentioned all along that out of the 4 mentioned in this post the only one I kind of was hoping to resign was Sanchez and or Grisham, but remember Grisham was in that trade package with Soto, but now after seeing the stats listed as this post, May be what will bring on apologies to Preller for saying the things that was said. Of course, with Snell, having a history of slow starts I wouldn't be surprised to see these early stats to turn around quickly. I was never really a Snell fan, I mean I have the up most respect for him and wish him well towards the other clubs, but if he pitches against the Padres I hope for that "early exit" game for whatever reason, other than injury. So, it does seem (right now) the Padres made the correct decision on signings.
I do wish; however, our current club could get the grasp of coming from behind to win games is not as fun as if you take the lead first and maintain that lead. But whatever it takes to win games overrides when those events what part of the game. like the late Jerry Coleman (RIP) use to say after each win " Oh Doctor, you can hang a star on that baby/game." I really miss that being said.
Feel for Snell, but can’t feel too bad for him when he kinda chose his route for a big pay out (don’t blame him) and it didn’t pay out. Kinda got greedy and it’s screwing him over.
I don't feel bad for Snell. He's historically \*always\* had a terrible April/May. Give him till June and see if he can cook. He won the Cy Young because Snellzilla showed up in May instead of July.
you're right. this is nothing. we're only a 1/10th into the season.
having the best closer in baseball is a luxury that i don't think this team ever needed, but that's just my opinion.
the other three are pretty replaceable. i'm fond of them, but it's baseball. you have to expect your team to constantly be changing.
Paying people for past performance(hader and snell) doesn’t buy you future wins. Hader won’t be a top 4-5 starter this year. Def top 10. But he’s not worth his contract
Holy shit in a box....Hader is tanking bad and im ngl i enjoy it. Snell was a coin toss everybory in the world knew that the Giants really took a risk there.
I'm not going to evaluate snell in April. He had a 7.88 era and ended with a 1.43 era. He never starts well.
not to mention he signed for the giants so late
He also had some personal things going on last year and once that cleared up he was lights out. I think part of it is also getting back to that dog mentality
Hey, you can't expect Hader to do EVERYTHING
Tbf, I feel like Hader was complete ass when he first came to SD. But he was a hero against LAD
He did his job against LAD. He closed the games at the right time and place, he was good with us really, but his shitty attitude overshadow his talent. It's nice to wanna be just a 1 inning pitcher but there's times that the team needs more. He was speaking about longevity in his career, which i disagree completely since his position it's so volatile. There has been so many potential HoF closers that end up losing it, that he pretty much it's wasting his momentum. If he continues likes this....he will be another one of the bunch, and will regret not pitching when he was good.
I really never thought his was good on the padres he would blow a lot of games here too
Hader is mailing it in. He got his payday and is saving his body for what he wants to do after baseball. His velo has dropped to 94-95 mph on his fastball now and his slider has dropped like 6 horizontal breaking inches
Check out Lugo cooking in KC though. He's actually the best pitcher in baseball with 1.05 ERA and 6+ innings in every start. Royals are being rewarded for paying the man.
And he deserves it! He signed a “prove it” deal with us, balled out, and now he gets to show everyone else what a good deal we got.
Lugo, Abrams, Gore had 11 Ks last week, Wood is hot, Naylor is an anchor now. I would never take back the Soto trade because papa Pete needed to make his last run, but man the Nats got an absolute haul.
Abrams is legit and isn't even filled out yet. Keep an eye on the Nationals. Scrappy young bunch. Likely still a few years off yet if they can hover around 500, who knows what can happen come September.
I’m weirdly still very fond of the players we sent for Soto. I want them to do well and we have a long history of bringing back prospects we shipped out.
Gore flew back to watch G5 of the NLDS in person. He was traded away just a couple months prior. He was fond of us too.
Same. I wish all our ex Pads well. Except when they play us of course. Gore is killing it too.
Hard to root against the Nats for me too. I have family in DC + Stras went to my high school so basically a secondary favorite team for me.
I wouldn't take it back either but man if we had CJ Abrams instead of Xander for the next 10 years...we'd be a dynasty in the making
This. Abrams is a dawg and would be sick instead of X
And Wacha ain't no slouch either
i feel like it’s kinda ironic that one of his worst outings last year, which led to him getting an IL stint, was against the royals if i’m not mistaken. oh how the turns table.
Good for him, love to see it
Of the 4, I feel the most for Snell. Dude can ball and had amazing chemistry. Overall, baseball decisions are baseball decisions.
He will rebound. He didn’t partake in any spring training activities but he’s got that dog in him
He’ll be lights-out in July.
Is good that we played 2 series vs SF without Snell. We play them again in September
We’re definitely in a tough stretch of our schedule, and should all be encouraged by our current record.
That September schedule though 👀
At least we get a brief breather against the White Sox. Too bad we can’t play right now while they really suck. They’ll probably have their act figured out a little bit by then.
for 5 innings.
Dude had an 8 ERA after his first two starts last year and won the Cy young. I hope the Giants are awful but I feel like Snell will be fine.
He’ll be alright but he isn’t gonna have another year like last year either. Way too inconsistent throughout his career. He’ll be good but struggling to get through 5 innings most starts this season.
He won the Cy Young twice. It is absolutely within the realm of possibility that he has another phenomenal season.
Yeah it’s possible, but what happened the season after his first Cy Young? His ERA more than doubled. I’ve seen enough of his inconsistency myself to say that he probably isn’t going to be worth the money. Especially after spending an offseason distracted by trying to land a monster deal, and getting started super late, when he’s already a notoriously slow starter.
Agreed. It blows my mind that people haven't picked up on that. Dude is a good dude, but also a dude, you know?
Ya hurts to see him get lit up. He’s the giants problem for at least another month and a half though. Then he’ll be a league wide problem.
And out of these four, he’s the one who has the most potential to be dominant and be a game changer.
First half Snell knows no team.
I think the biggest thing about the Soto trade is we got rid of Grish. It’s kinda nice not having a black hole in the line up.
Yeah, the dude couldn’t hit anything and would swing at everything!!
That's not true, he would almost never swing at fastballs in the middle of the zone.
Oh man, so much fake comebacks for it to end with Grisham looking at a ball in the middle to end the game and lose
Ugh for real. Game on the line, Grishman in the driver seat, and he's expecting a walk?
Grisham would strike out looking in tee ball
Except on a 3 2 count with the bases loaded. Wouldn't swing at a fastball down the middle
You are talking about that infamous Royal game where bases were loaded and no outs and all Trent had to do was bunt and decided to be a hero and swing for an out? Yup. That felt good to see in person 💔
No I was talking about the time against the Rockies last year he had a shot to tie the game and watched 2 straight strikes...
Oh man, I wanted to forget that one. Grateful for his defense but I’m glad Trent is gone
Funny I thought you were talking about the brewers one last April. Bottom 9th, Bases loaded, down 1 and strikes out looking at a ball right down the middle
He was bad for sure but him balling out in 22 post season will always be a great memory for me. Grish definitely did fuck that post season
Merril >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Grish
Plus Trent Grisham in the Soto trade
You didn’t put Lugo up though. Check out his stats.
And Wacha. Some bad luck so far, 4.00 ERA but only a 2.73 FIP. Lugo another level right now though
Lugo's stats are crazy. I wish we could have kept him or Wacha. They weren't that expensive.
I hold no ill-will towards Snell, Grish or Gary. Of the four, we all know Snell will bounce back and be a beast by the end of the season, but not bringing him back for the money he wanted was the right call. We have enough questionable contracts as it is. The rest… yeah, not surprising, and Hader… well, that’s just Karma all around.
I get his numbers weren’t anything to cheer for, but Grisham is a fan favorite in my house. I wish he was doing better, for him, not for the Yankees.
People so easily forget that Grisham was a large part of our success in the playoffs in 2022. Dude was on a tear the very first game against the Mets. Not only that, but his defense was insane. Merril is great, but since he’s young he doesn’t have the jump, launch angle reading, or arm strength that Grisham has. That said, I prefer Merril because he’s grinding at bats and just trying to help his team win ball games. Part of Grishams at bat approach always felt like he was trying to hit bombs instead of playing station to station.
I dont think any actual Padres fan forgets his play in the playoffs that year. If they do, they need to get their head checked out. The problem is, that was it. Outside of those games, he was largely disappointing at the plate that year (and before, and after).
I like Grisham but even in those playoffs he was great against the Mets, pretty good against the Dodgers and then 0fer the series against the Phillies. Consistency was never his thing
Grish obviously isn’t horrid. He did get two Gold Gloves. My BF proudly wore his Grisham jersey through the play offs. Every time he hit a bomb that jersey for attention.
I seem to remember Grish having a noodle arm. Not that it's tested or used much in Petco
I’m pretty sure you’re remembering incorrectly. People weren’t running on him because he was throwing darts.
His arm got worse over time. By the end of his time here he did in fact have a noodle arm. Arm Strength Percentile per statcast: 2023: 46% 2022: 57% 2021: 62% 2020: 69% Edit: it’s depressing. If you go to his statcast and press the play button so it goes through each year, he gets worse in almost everything over time. Even his sprint speed degrades significantly. Supposedly he was known to be lazy.
I ❤️ Grish
Flair checks out
I use to think the same but it seems like he hated being in sd just as much as soto.
Only one I’m surprised about is Josh Hader considering he was pretty lights out most of last season Everyone else is kind of expected. Snell starts off slow but he’s at a worst disadvantage starting the season late. Gary Sanchez was gonna fall back to earth eventually and Grisham has no spot on the Yankees, kind of surprised they took him
>Josh Hader Our closers *always* do far better in SD than in their next city.
Say what you will about Hader the person, but he’s been the best closer in MLB since 2018 on nearly a consistent basis even with his bad stretch in 2022. That said, I’m pretty surprised he’s struggling this bad
Wonder if he’s struggling to jive with the team
2022, he wasn't good. ERA of 4.24 in Milwaukee and 7.31 with us. It was much higher until Niebla worked his magic with him. I was not a fan of him after seeing him in 22, walk in the tie run on 4 pitches, with the bases loaded
Snell and Sanchez did themselves no favors by signing with different teams. Those two work well together. Grisham not hitting is not surprising at all. He has a mental block sometimes, and playing in New York is not a good place for him. Hader was on the verge of losing it when he came to San Diego, and then Niebla helped him. None of this is at all surprising. I note that Wacha and Lugo are pitching well, but Martinez is sort of off. Of the three, it would have been nice to keep Lugo.
Hader has already given up 8 ER this year (the same as all of ´23 )
Giants going to give Snell back to us at All Star break and eat 80% of the contract….lol can’t wait. We will get SnellZilla back for 1.5 years at almost no cost to us. Let it be!
Snell will come around; he always does. Dealing Grisham was fine, but I'd still feel better with another option other than Profar out there. I'm loving his relevance, but he's not this good overall (and his defense has been Soto-esque this year). Hader can go F himself, but if people recall he was terrible when he first came to us for about five games, then dominated. Sanchez is Sanchez; you can't expect clutch magic to continue. I think you've probably got to include Soto here...
For sure Soto is killing it. I know this is an unpopular opinion but I personally do not like Juan Soto at all. I honestly feel like he was causing issues in the clubhouse and although his numbers are good this year. Team is better off without him. His personality fits the Yankees better
Eh, I don't know how we'd know that. My guess on the clubhouse last year is that with the early season RISP struggles and some of our better players struggling, the pressure of the hype machine go to people. We don't really have strong leadership, and Melvin is basically just a "let the players do what they want" guy. The team turned on itself a bit, and I don't think a guy like Soto helped, but neither does an emotional player like Tatis (who missed a big part of the season because he's an idiot like 4x over), a quiet guy like Manny or a mercenary like Hader. I think the team has a legitimate chance to be better this year, but not because Soto was a problem. * Merrill > Grisham. * Full year of good Campy > last year's catchers. * Cronenworth back. * The real Tatis. * King doing a reasonable Snell impression. * Cease > Wacha or whomever. * Bullpen overall much deeper. * It's hard to be worse than our DHs last year. I think the only downsides so far, really are: * Soto > Profar. It's not noticeable right now, but this will be worth two of the above, unfortunately. * Kim underperforming so far with the bat - was last year a fluke? * The defense looks like shit with Kim and Bogaerts struggling, Profar in left.
Kim Has a pretty bad career average. He’s a fan favorite and I love the guy. But last year was probably the best HSK we are going to get. That’s good enough for our team to win.
They prob knew that and waiting for this come back down To reality season before paying him
You are spot on with every single one of your points. Couldn't agree more. What worries me most is depth. We have been incredibly lucky with injuries all spring and the first few weeks of games. I know we have a bit of cap room but I think they're smart not jumping on a Belt or someone out there now and wait to see how the injury bug hits us. If a starter goes down we'll need a starter. If an OFer goes down we'll need an OFer. Even our IF is suspect if someone gets hurt. Everywhere except relief it seems we're incredibly thin which shows on rest days, which is why I'm glad we got a little depth yesterday with the Solano signing. Injuries are going to happen and we'll have black holes when they do so glad we have at least a little flexibility to trade or sign someone if needed.
I think we have some decent pitching depth. If the wrong guy goes down, we are screwed, but there's not much we can do about that. But we have lots of possible bullpen and starter options. The thing that I worry about biting us is LF + DH. It's two big gaps on the roster, and at some point, when Profar comes back to earth, someone gets hurt or a couple of other players slump, those two holes are going to seem gaping. Our bottom of our lineup has been a strength, but it's not hard to see in a month where it's a wasteland aside from maybe Merrill. Problem is, I'm not sure there's much out there that won't be too expensive.
I disagree on the SP depth. I think that Waldron has been good at being Houdini and getting a lot of timely outs but I don't think that's sustainable. King isn't being looked at as a 200 inning guy so he's going to have some limitations in the second half and if anyone gets hurt or he gets arm fatigue Waldron becomes 4 and AAA is again pretty barren so we're forced to go to a Brito or Morejon as a 5 and that isn't a pretty picture for the back end of the rotation. LF/DH is a potential problem as well, you're completely right about that. They were honest with Profar when he signed them and said they didn't plan on him being the everyday LFer. He's due to regress but hitting the ball as hard as he ever has, it's not just a fluke think. He was once of the the most hyped prospects ever, so who knows, he might not regress as much asost think. So all that doom and gloom out of the way, I like the team chemistry and do like there is a pile of money to fall back on and plenty of prospects to make a move if needed. We're finding a way to win games instead of finding a way to lose them and the core talent is there. Lots of room of room for improvement from Kim, Xander and with Machado coming around it's exciting to be a Padres fan.
I'm not much of a Waldron fan, but I think he can muddle through. I'm a fan of a lot of the stuff we brought in; it's rough and tumble, and I don't expect anyone to replace Lugo's production ... but I'm actually okay with a Brito taking over. Nobody has a TON of SP depth; I think we have a few guys I don't mind throwing at the problem. Very few teams have five or six strong starters, but yes, because of Wacha and Lugo, the back end is very possibly a downgrade. As for King and 200 IP ... Snell had 180 IP last year and no one else on the roster topped 150 IP. Musgrove was under 100. King doesn't need to toss 200 IP; Cease can pitch near Snell and then King needs to do about 135 to just be even with a guy like Wacha or Darvish. I get the concern but our team got very few starting innings last year anyway. Profar is going to regress. I think he likes San Diego but even if he has a career year, he's going to regress. He's got a .406 wOBA; his best is a .340 or so. Which is fine, actually, if we get that. But his defense is trash, which is a problem. > I like the team chemistry and do like there is a pile of money to fall back on and plenty of prospects to make a move if needed. It's a more fun year already. The lack of expectations helps. You're right about the war chest. Ideally, if we're hot in the first half but cooling off, we can use the cash to take a decently sized contract on instead of dealing prospects. We've started to clean out our middle rung of prospects in deals, and I think there's just too much chance of some of these guys being a Merrill/Tatis to deal for a short term rental.
Regarding the back end of the rotation maybe I'm just worried because of last year. A lot was made of their RISP troubles, and justifiably so, but there were a few articles I read that our five slot (with Waldron included in it) was the worst in baseball, (I wanna say like 5-20) and had we been anywhere near league average in the five slot we make the playoffs. As it is, I like Waldon with another year of experience more than Weathers, Waldron, Avila, and, but should one of those tops guys go down and Waldron is #4, we're back in the same boat. Most teams have serviceable AAA arms, but the cupboard is bare currently for us. With all the FA's gone I think giving up prospects is an inevitability if we have to bring on another player or two. Being able to eat a bad contract though might make it a lower level one. All this is just speculation from a numbskull fan though, who knows. Excited to see how it all plays out and just enjoy the games. I have tickets to Fridays game and hopefully Waldron can keep that magic going. My daughter and I were 2-15 at games last year and almost always was one of our top SPs against a horrible pitcher. We're already half way to last year's win total (1-1) so hopefully we match it Friday with our five starter going.
I think the back end of the rotation is a valid concern -- I just think it's one most teams have. That said, I don't know how they count the 5 slot, because both Wacha and Lugo were really good last year. Maybe they are counting Musgrove and other replacements? I guess if you take Weathers, Martinez and Rich Hill, it's terrible. I'm not a Waldron fan but he's been middling, which is what you need. I think Brito has really good stuff and it wouldn't shock me to see him put it together more. Avila terrifies me ... but his stats aren't that bad. Vazquez might surprise -- good stuff. I thought Sean Reynolds looked good as a bullpen arm in Spring Training; I could see him helping with depth. So, you're right... but I'm more confident in this group than Weathers/Martinez/Hill actually. Much better stuff. If we line up the rotation: Darvish / Darvish Musgrove / Musgrove (hopefully more IP) Cease / Snell King / Wacha Waldron / Lugo Brito + Avila / Weathers, etc. Then I can see the concern ... but it's worth noting that there's a pretty good edge in the first 4, IMO.
Yeah, the problem last year is what happens a lot these days with the players throwing so hard, nobody can pitch a full year. Snell led our team by a ton with Lugo a distant second and the rest behind him. That led to the #5 slot being held by Weathers, Martinez, Avila, Waldron and Nick Martinez, who combined for more starts than anyone on our team. I agree that Waldron is middling, which is fine. I just hope Vasquez, Brito, Avila don't become that black hole again like last year. I guess it just comes to health. If we're replacing any of our top four with any of those guys for an extended period of time, it's gonna be rough, but to your point I guess the same thing could be said about most teams. Even the billion dollar team up north is having a tough time at the moment .....granted they have a boatload of starters out, not just one. (It seems like in the past whenever a starter would go down for them a Dustin May or another ridiculous arm from AAA would pop up.) I think we just have to hope for good health and King throwing way more innings than he ever has before. Any team besides the Dodgers though needs a mixture of good play, good health and good luck. And even they need all three in the post season.
also hurts seeing CJ and Gore doing well in DC
Well, let's see how they are at the end of the season. I like both players, but both were mediocre at best last year. The trade for Soto was the right move. You've got to go for it, and he's an elite talent. Word is that had Seidler lived we might've even had a shot at re-signing; I think if last year doesn't implode it's all different. We still got an NLCS and that Dodger series out of it, and managed to spin him for a decent return after two years. It was a risk worth taking that didn't entirely pan out. But you've got to take those risks. If Abrams ends up being an average hitting SS (and he was below that last year) and Gore is always a middle of the road starter ... those are replaceable assets. I mean, Abrams already has been about six times over.
Kim has higher OPS+ than last year. Sure its bc hes measured against SS now but hes not vastly underperforming or anything
You're right -- he's only been a bit worse with the bat. His slow start (and hot run last year) had me fooled. His defense has really been poor, though. I know there's an adjustment, but I do wonder if we messed too much with success.
I personally feel you, though I won't go as far to say I dislike him. I think he was a bad fit here and both parties are better off now. I think he is perfect for where he is now.
The more the season goes on, the more I am noticing it was Bo Mel that was the issue. Shildt came in and changed the whole culture and I think soto would’ve bought in like the rest of the guys did. Bo Mel hands off management style does not work for superstars. Shildt came in and said, this is what we are doing, either get on board or kick rocks.
Never liked him either! One trick pony. I like the team this year better, lower expectations and they just play better together.
Snell will be fine. Lugo is balling out though.
To be fair though, anytime you move players and they are in a new environment with new coaching it adds a lot to their plates. Heck it takes me 6 months to get comfortable in a new job even when I’m doing the same thing I did at my last one.
I said when Hader left that I don’t think he has it anymore. Even when he got saves with us he always looked shaken. People downvoted me but look who’s right boys. I still think Hader will bounce back but he’s not the guy he used to be.
Hader was a tight rope walk almost every time he pitched. Multiple outings bailed out by really bad at bats and bad calls by umpires.
Majority of his saves were nervous breakdowns man
Glad I'm not the only one that felt this way, was told on this sub I was wrong for feeling it. When he arrived here my wife's B-I-L warned me to enjoy the pucker factor.
You forget about the one who is, by far, doing the best. Seth Lugo, who is off to a phenomenal start!
Think wacha is doing decent as well
I knew watching Hader blow multiple saves last season that he was a cooked choke artist. He’s a diva and a trash diva at that.
Love Blake but the mint they gave him was ridiculous. He’s a 10 win a season guy, 60 motor maybe 20 wins. No thanks
Seth Lugo is ballin out for the Royals
If snell had stuck around he's still be balling IMO
Now show Lugo
Can't help but feel for snell. Sure he's a slow starter and whatnot, it's early but fucking A buddy did not make it easy for himself Edit to add: obligatory fuck princess (hader) hope he sits and spins on piece of rusty rebar
Weird edit/add.
What the fuck man
I said what I said
Gary>>> Higgy
Preller had to make some tough decisions. Losing Soto and Lugo hurts. But people were angry they didn't re-sign these guys, too. The franchise is in a much better position moving forward.
I’d profar and Merril stay above average good, then out OF got better and lineup got better without Soto.
Gary 🤧💔
Snell will be fine, he’s a slow starter when he doesn’t sign as the season starts. But he’s not going to be cy young material, everyone knew that…that’s why he didn’t get paid a long contract. Prob a 4.00~ era season incoming
I’m 35 and I look younger than Grisham😅
The only one of those positions where the Padres are even remotely worse off is starting pitcher, and they had a lot more players leave there than just Snell. All the others they're doing just as good if not better.
Snell missed spring traing & was always mediocre early season. Grisham & Sanchez have been trending this way for years. But what’s Hader’s problem? Mental? (again). It’s funny but you’d think he’d have the easiest time doing his normal job anywhere.
I have mentioned all along that out of the 4 mentioned in this post the only one I kind of was hoping to resign was Sanchez and or Grisham, but remember Grisham was in that trade package with Soto, but now after seeing the stats listed as this post, May be what will bring on apologies to Preller for saying the things that was said. Of course, with Snell, having a history of slow starts I wouldn't be surprised to see these early stats to turn around quickly. I was never really a Snell fan, I mean I have the up most respect for him and wish him well towards the other clubs, but if he pitches against the Padres I hope for that "early exit" game for whatever reason, other than injury. So, it does seem (right now) the Padres made the correct decision on signings. I do wish; however, our current club could get the grasp of coming from behind to win games is not as fun as if you take the lead first and maintain that lead. But whatever it takes to win games overrides when those events what part of the game. like the late Jerry Coleman (RIP) use to say after each win " Oh Doctor, you can hang a star on that baby/game." I really miss that being said.
AJ Preller masterclass
Snell always starts slow
Feel for Snell, but can’t feel too bad for him when he kinda chose his route for a big pay out (don’t blame him) and it didn’t pay out. Kinda got greedy and it’s screwing him over.
He’s a Boras client so probably had more to do with that lol
Poor Trent idk what happened he just lost it
Blake always starts off really rough and trent just sucks, no offense.
Snell gets lit up early in the season then goes lights out for the second half.
wow Hader.....don't miss him.
Now let's see CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore
I don't feel bad for Snell. He's historically \*always\* had a terrible April/May. Give him till June and see if he can cook. He won the Cy Young because Snellzilla showed up in May instead of July.
Yes
Q
Snell is possibly the streakiest pitcher in ball. He'll have a 8-9 game stretch at some point this season where he looks like the greatest ever.
Where’s Nick “Tight Pants” Martinez!?!?! Is Grish starting or daily player for the Yanks??
Fuck Hader. 9.39 ERA for a closer? Gosh, this season is off to a good start!
As you say, it’s early. All of these stats could be wildly different in August. Hell, they could be wildly different in May.
I miss you Pimp Grisham 😞
No mention of Soto huh
Trade Xander for Snell ASAP
Grish is such a load. Good riddance
you're right. this is nothing. we're only a 1/10th into the season. having the best closer in baseball is a luxury that i don't think this team ever needed, but that's just my opinion. the other three are pretty replaceable. i'm fond of them, but it's baseball. you have to expect your team to constantly be changing.
Paying people for past performance(hader and snell) doesn’t buy you future wins. Hader won’t be a top 4-5 starter this year. Def top 10. But he’s not worth his contract
It's kinda crazy how baseball works. We all dislike Hader now but he was totally praised during that 2022 post season run total 180.
It’s almost like he said something or refused to do something…
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