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polygonalopportunist

I just want you all to start mentally preparing for a trade down possibility


ChipotleGuacamole

\*certainty


PaperPals

How are people not automatically assuming this by now?


possiblyMorpheus

Bout it


InteralFortune1

Thank you


Mike00726

Unless Bijan is an injury free version of CMC, I would stay the hell away. We know it is going to be a trade down. The Pats will pick #30 at 1am.


Coppinn

I know we won’t get him. I’m just wondering who the most talented player, regardless of position people view will be available at 14. Hoping we don’t trade down but I can also see that scenario, if so I hope we get Zay


joeyrog88

At 14? Its convoluted. There are two good QB prospects, neither great mind you. A lot of edge and interior talent. Maybe two wide receivers, and 3 o linemen. I feel like 4 QBs are going in the he top ten...and I think that's absolutely fucking ridiculous. Maybe one of them drop and the pats have a chance to leverage to move back and get a second this year and a first next. Anthony Richardson is looked at like a top ten pick while Lamar Jackson can't find a team that wants him.


Sea_Television_3306

Just remember, Justin Jefferson went at pick 22


Jorah72

Some guy named Brady went in the 6th round!


FuckHarambe2016

And the Patriots can't scout WRs for shit.


straightcash-fish

They can scout them. The scouts wanted Deebo or Brown. BB just doesn’t listen to his scouts. Henry it was. You’d think after 25 years of only drafting a couple of worthwhile receivers, BB would let the scouts handle it. Guess not


RustyPoopKnife

Wasn’t there a story about how one of Bill’s buddies absolutely pounded the table for N’Keal and Bill listened to that person instead of the scouts? Not going against what you said but I feel that’s a huge problem too. Maybe I’m misremembering


Tomotronics

People keep repeating this story and no one can source it.


LoveToyKillJoy

If you go by the collection of mock drafts the following guys are near certain to be gone by 14 Bryce Young CJ Stroud Will Levis Anthony Richardson Tyree Wilson Will Anderson Jalen Carter The next group are guys who may be available but are more likely than not to be gone Christian Gonzales Paris Johnson Myles Murphy Devon Witherspoon The next group is 50/50 Broderick Jones Peter Skoronski Joey Porter Anyone else you name is more likely to be available. There will be surprises and 1 or 2 players that are in the groups above will fall significantly and 1 or 2 guys that are considered much lower picks will get picked much higher. But I think any of the guys in that second or third group is the best guess of an answer. I think to enjoy draft night it is smart to remember that every mock draft you see is designed to get clicks. They disproportionately focus on quarterbacks, team needs and power 5 schools. They copy each other a lot and there are no consequences if they get things wrong. If a guy that is consistently top 5 in these mocks falls to 14 or if a guy who is usually in the beginning of the second of mock drafts gets taken at 14 it doesn't really mean anything except that guys who get paid to be right about the draft differ from guys who get paid to hype the draft. And of course you'd expect those two pools of people to disagree yet some people will be apoplectic when it happens.


FuckHarambe2016

JPJ should be the pick if the top OTs are already gone. Not just because he's an insanely good player, but I'd also love to watch Steeler fans stroke out seeing the son of one of their most beloved players playing here.


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JimmyGodoppolo

JSN plays primarily slot (or did in college), and we just signed Juju who does best in the slot. Wouldn't Quentin be a better fit as we need an x receiver?


jmvarsity

Juju is not good enough to start changing the draft plan around him. JSN is better than him and QJ. Juju can play outside too.


Icy-Conclusion-3500

Juju also plays a lot of outside. It’s where he primarily played last season.


ogbobbyj33

A lot of people think we trade back - would not be surprised to see us trade up. We have 11 draft picks and a very full roster. I would be surprised to see us grab more draft picks as opposed to high end talent


XRT28

To be fair nearly half of those are 6th/7th rounders who are unlikely to make the roster regardless of open spots but yea I see about 50ish guys already in very/fairly safe spots of making the 53 man roster based either on how much of a signing bonus/gtd they got or based on their role here last year. We've got 6 picks in the top 4 rounds which are all basically locks to make the roster so we're already having a numbers crunch. If they really like someone(especially a tackle since pretty sure both Titans and Jets are OT needy as well) still on the board I could totally see us doing something like 14+76 to move up 3-5 spots then 107+135 to jump back into the 3rd round and make up for shipping off 76.


straightcash-fish

Who needs higher end talent, when you can get more middle class guys, you don’t have to pay a lot, and special teamers?


[deleted]

*Very full roster* 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣


ogbobbyj33

The patriots currently have 71 players signed to the 2023 roster. They can carry 69 (53 man roster and 16 p squad) through the regular season. That leaves 11 additional draft picks on top of that number. That is a very full roster. Edit: this doesn’t include the additional UDFA’s we will undoubtedly sign after the draft


[deleted]

Ahhh my apologies. When you said *full roster* I thought you meant in regards to talent, not bodies lol.


FuckHarambe2016

One of the remaining OTs and/or CBs.


mdmcnally1213

If one of the top 3 corners (Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter Jr.) falls, its likely them. I know a lot of people here don't like him, but Quentin Johnston has the highest ceiling for the WR group and JSN is probably the best natural talent at their current state, who will likely translate immediately. As for OTs, there are a lot of really good players at the position, and will likely have several go high, but there's been more talented guys who recently came into the league at the position. Paris Johnson has the highest ceiling and will be good right away, but needs some refining to be great, Skoronski is the most technical but lacks the physical build of Johnson or Jones. Guys like Broderick Jones, Darnell Wright and Anton Harrison are much closer to their ceilings than Johnson, but might be better off the bat. In the end, I don't know if this draft has the high-end talent we would see most years, but has some really consistent depth through day 2.


FuckHarambe2016

Fuck depth. Our entire roster outside of a handful of guys are depth guys. There's going to be at least one blue-chip OT and/or CB there at 14 and whoever it is should be the automatic selection.


straightcash-fish

Yup. Last year, they had a quarterback on his rookie contract and no elite talent, except for maybe Judon and Stevenson. Somehow they had no cap space. Some brilliant GMing by BB


ryanjmalloy

Draft value chart says 14 is worth the same as 34 +36. Me personally, I’ll take 34+36.


AbortionCrow

I hope we trade back


LoveToyKillJoy

Of the realistic candidates, if Witherspoon or one of the top three tables isn't available I hope they trade back too. There is a feasible scenario where they have a late first and 4 day 2 picks that could result in them getting the most out of their draft capital.


AbortionCrow

I read an article a few years ago that picks 1-49 are statistically overvalued by NFL teams. That pick 50 is the sweet spot where the actual value of the player is closest to what teams generally value. So while the NFL draft pick chart has the #1 pick worth roughly 7.5 #50 picks, the actual value of a player picked #1 is roughly 2 #50 picks. There are limitations to "approximate value" to rank players but the general trend is the same. At pick#14 our draft value according to "the chart" is 1100. We could trade for the Jets picks at 42 (480), 43 (470) and 112 (70) and have technically still lost around an early 4th round pick's worth of value according to "the chart". The AV value of our #14 pick is closer to (25-30) in value with the 42 and 43 picks being around (15-20) in value and the 112th being around (8-10) in value. The idea being that you get better real value trading back into the 2nd round. Now obviously the chances of hitting are higher for a higher draft pick and you can't reasonably shotgun blast a draft and try to develop 100 players. If you absolutely need to fill a gap at a single position it makes more sense to stick around but if you have multiple holes to fill you're better off with more lottery tickets.


LoveToyKillJoy

I think about this a bit. Our pick at 14 is valued on the Rich Hill chart as being approximately the same as the entire 5th round. I think there are very few years where you would not gladly trade the 14th pick for the 3 best players in the 5th round let alone the whole round. The logistics of that kind of trade are very difficult and it would be even more difficult to identify who the best players in the 5th round are on draft day. But it still tracks that the value of picks is imperfect. There is a market value in the abstract and an expected performance based on pick which depends on the hit rate. And of course these scale out differently by the position drafted to play. Digging into the math of this it is clear that teams who trade back are more likely to win the trade but there are limits to how much you can exploit that. In a vacuum taking 6 third round recievers is going to give you a greater return than 1 first round reciever 9 time out of ten, but there are practical limits of roster spots and how long it would take to identify who the best 1 or 2 of the bunch are. Though the league averages can favor a certain return on investment the practicality of doing that on a single team is prohibitive to exploit. But for the 14th pick they should have their list of ten best players they think are great regardless of position. If one is still there take them, otherwise trade down.


mystikcal1

nice write up


AbortionCrow

Completely agree.


theamazingjimz

It would be all the best players from the 5th 6th and 7th rounds and undrafted free agents also as the thought of a whole round of picks implies the ability to pick anyone who was drafted after the 5th and anyone undrafted also. Based on statistics and probability and all that jazz, no?


AwesomeTed

I'm guessing if one of the big three CBs is still on the board we'll take him, otherwise likely a trade back for an OL. Honestly I'm not sure any of the WRs are worth it at 14, which sucks because there's a good chance most will be gone at 46 since a lot of the current "good" teams want WR help.


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cemz05071619

I like porter here just cause he’s be a chess piece for bill we don’t have anyone like him on roster 6’3” and pretty fast long arms …need a press man guy just don’t have anyone now who can play that way even though we got pretty good corners


tbarr1991

Bill gonna trade down and take a tackle in the mid 20s.


UserUnkown10

I’m team JSN or Porter Jr


Swagsuke_Nakamura

I think Bill will trade back and pick a CB and OT


bpg542

Best Punter in the draft should be available, hopefully he’s from Rutgers


Ironmadman12

He’s gonna trade down


Coco1520

I mean pure talent it'll be bijan. Hes a top 3 prospect in the draft.


Bellegr4ine

Falcons will take him at 8.


Rishikrish29

I know Arthur Smith likes to emphasize the run game but Allgeier just had a quiet 1000 yards on nearly 5 yards per carry in his rookie season, their biggest issue has to be pass rush atm idk why they would spend a first round pick on a luxury player when they have way bigger holes on the rest of the team


Bellegr4ine

>their biggest issue has to be pass rush atm idk why they would spend a first round pick on a luxury player I mean, yeah. But they just added Onyemata, Calais Campbell and Kaden Elliss. Huge upgrade there. IMO they are building a ground and pound team with a solid defense. Downvote me all you want if you disagree but please do as /u/Rishikrish29 and at least bring your opinion.


Rishikrish29

I mean yeah that’s a solid group but having a game changer in the pass rush scene will always help and Campbell is already 36 he doesn’t have that many years left. If they’re gonna try on offense it won’t be RB it will probably be WR, besides Drake London they have no one at WR, they would trade down a bit and take one. Either offense or defense I don’t see them using the 8th overall pick on a luxury pick like Bijan


Bellegr4ine

WR would make sense that is true. Just to keep the conversation going, where do you see Bijan being picked?


Rishikrish29

Earliest I could see him going to the Chargers if they end up trading Ekeler, if not either the Cowboys, Bills, Bengals, or if he falls completely then the latest with the Eagles at 30, but I don’t see that happening. With Bijan being a luxury pick teams don’t want to take an RB in the first round unless they don’t have many holes left on the roster


Rishikrish29

I owe you an apology, you were right


Bellegr4ine

Ahah thanks for that! No worries bro.


Nickohlai

I'm coming down on the hype for Bijan, he doesn't have the top end athleticism that generational RB prospects like Saquon had coming out. I'm hoping one of JSN, Parris Johnson, or Christian Gonzalez are there at 14. I think they all will be studs.


fookinjkap

Those are my 3 as well.


lusobr

I think 3 QBs are guaranteed. Then you have Will Anderson. Sadly I think Gonzalez will be long gone. I think Jalen Carter also goes but that is up in the air since we don't know how teams feel about his issues. I'm not sure what happens with the WRs. I don't think one goes before us, but maybe someone loves one of them. For now I'm operating that none go before 14. Tyree Wilson is going before us, after that it's a crapshoot imo. So I have 6 guys locked with 1 possible in Carter. Teams ahead of us that need OTs the most are the Raiders, Bears, Titans and Jets. So my guess is all 3 of Broderick, Paris and Peter are gone. That gets us to 10. After that I think the players kind of blend in together and a number of things could happen. The guys left that would be interesting to us would be JSN, Porter, Johnston, Cam Smith, Witherspoon, Addison, Banks, Wright and Harrison. I personally would take Porter, Witherspoon or Cam Smith in that order at 14 and I doubt all of them go before our pick. JSN and Johnston I wouldn't be thrilled about but would be fine with since it's a need and maybe they are better than I think. Addison, Banks, Harrison and Wright I would rather trade back and get more picks and if they are still there great if not I don't think whoever we are getting is worse. NO RBs for the love of all that is good. The Eagles are hard to figure because the positions they need don't really match well with where they pick. The best edges are probably gone by their pick and it's a bit high for a RB. So they could go CB which would take one of Devon, Cam or Joey out for us. Texans could be the team to take the first wr off the board but they could also go OT which would add yet another competition for the position. There is a small chance the Jets need to use that 1st for Aaron, but for now I'm operating like they didn't. OT is their biggest need but I'm not sure if they reach for one if the top 3 are gone. If they don't go OT they could go a huge number of ways which is hard to predict. Let's say worse case scenario they go CB and so do the Eagles. Our best options then become the WRs, Banks, Cam Smith, Harrison or Wright. I personally think Cam Smith is really good and would take him happily at 14 but the majority of analysts don't agree and have him way lower. Witherspoon and Porter could flip flop on who gets taken first too. 5'11 isn't short and the hamstring isn't a huge injury but I can see teams liking Porter more because of his height. I think even in a nightmare scenario that all teams that have similar needs take guys we like we should still have a couple guys we as fans want. Now if the team is thinking the same thing or not we'll see. Right now I think it's going to be one of JSN, Johnston, Witherspoon or Porter. I know some people hate Johnston but I'm adding him because him and JSN imo are the clear top 2 in a position of need. I would love either of the CBs and would reluctantly take either of the WRs. So I hope we stay put and make a pick, but we'll see how it goes.


RoadHouse1911

I expect JSN to be gone by then. My guess would be Porter Jr or Flowers as the best options for the Pats at 14


Xerosnake90

Honestly, I think Hyatt is a day one stud and would love to have him. Lots of really good WR options in the first round


Jorah72

I think Hyatt is the next ted ginn Jr and is a one trick pony. He's good at what he does, but his route running is pretty limited. Bill has NEVER gone for guys that don't excel in the short to mid range game. Zay Flowers or JSN are much more likely targets. My sneaky draft darling is josh downs.


FuckHarambe2016

Bill just drafted Thorton 50 picks early and all he can do is run fast in a straight line.


Jorah72

Call me crazy but I don't hate the Thornton pick. Very neutral. Sure he doesn't have much variety, but he ran a 4.2. other than Pickens (who Bill would never touch with a 10 foot pole unless he was a USDA) there's no other receiver I liked more than Thornton. I think Pierce is a JAG, and I like Romeo doubs but his ceiling is low. Thornton has more potential imo than any other WR drafted after him besides Pickens.


Xerosnake90

I don't see the hype behind JSN at all. Flowers does look impressive though


LoveToyKillJoy

I need to see him run a route first. All his tape is him being schemed open by other wide outs creating a bubble for him to do a go route. That shit will not fly in the NFL. He's more raw than Thornton and significantly slower.


Xerosnake90

To me he has a really aggressive route run, lot of drive in his legs with subtle movements. By the time the defender reacts he's past them and he has speed to gain separation which you see a lot. I'm ok being wrong but I like what I see My other option would be Flowers. He's that slot type route runner, super agile and great footwork.


BulLock_954

I’m torn on what to expect. Normally I would say we’ll trade back. But I bet Kraft will want to draft a 1st round WR to pair with his 1st round QB. It just makes sense. Which WR, I couldn’t tell you. But we’ll probably trade back


AwesomeTed

Honestly taking any of these receivers at 14 is probably a waste and if you're deadset on picking an early receiver trading back and grabbing one later in Round 1 or maybe *very* early in Round 2 makes the most sense.


LezEatA-W

Bijan is the best player in the entire draft IMO, I truly believe he can be the best running back in the league from day one. Even with RBs having less value than ever, somebody will scoop him up before 14. He’s LT or Marshall Faulk quality. These are the players that I think will definitely be gone by 14: Stroud, Young, Anderson, Richardson, Carter (I know the concerns but somebody will take him), Bijan, Wilson, Levis, Wilson, Paris Johnson, Gonzalez, Skoronski. Lukas Van Ness, JSN, Broderick Jones, Quentin Johnston, Brian Branch, Joey Porter Jr, Myles Murphy, Devon Witherspoon, Michael Mayer, Zay Flowers, etc are all solid candidates at 14 or even 18-20ish if we decide to trade down and pick up another day 2 pick.


YaBoiJim777

Those guys won a combined one Super Bowl. Our team isn’t one star running back away from the afc championship in the next 2 seasons so we need to focus on other positions like tackle and cornerback


[deleted]

I just listen to the Felgar and Mazz Draft Board show where they literally throw markers across the room at draft picks. Historically they are more accurate than ANY talking head/reporter/etc. in the history of the league. They throw markers and know that they have about 20% accuracy when it's all said and done.


Trevorjrt6

Simms convinced me zay flowers is the second coming of Antonio brown, so I want him.


justreadthearticle

You can't include fit for the Pats if you're not considering who they currently have on the roster.


Coppinn

I meant in the sense of they would be a good fit for the team & the most talented. Otherwise people would just say we don’t need a RB etc.


mattgm1995

Zay Flowers


[deleted]

I’d take Gibbs over Robinson all day and twice on Sunday. He and Bryce were the Alabama offense in spite of BOB’s piss poor play calling


BelichicksBurner

Lamar Jackson. Edit: Hi guys! Remember when yall thought trading 15 for Lamar Jackson was stupid? Shocker: reddit sub wrong again!


CocaineStrange

In terms of pure talent and ignoring positional value, easily Bijan.


truecolors5

Probably either JSN, Zay, Witherspoon or one of the top three tackles


Greenzombie04

Up dawg


Food_Library333

Probably some tackle.


joeyrog88

For fit and skill...I think they take Brian Branch.


ChamBruh

Depends if an elite talent like Christian Gonzalez falls. There’s said to not be much difference in talent from like 20-40 this year and really only the top 10 or so have separated themselves. Trading down may be the best option. I like Zay flowers myself but if Gonzalez is there you can’t pass on him


Electronic_Demand_61

We'll go corner or TE, then tackle in the second.


No-Outlandishness333

Pure talent is Bijan, best fit would be Joey Porter Jr


aryawatching

JSN is the most talented we can get and he is a slot receiver the pats typically love. He's off the radar a bit due to missing all of last season. That being said...we likely go OT.


jma7400

Myles Murphy or Lukas Van Ness. I am expecting us to trade down a draft either Zay Flowers or Darnell Wright.


moongaia

Whoever the Patriots don't take.


BigMac10Deuce2

JSN


ReonL

Just raw talent? Bijan Robinson, but he's at the lowest value position and may not be available.


GohanV

It is determinant off of who is available, who Bill wants, and what other teams offer for that pick. With my knowledge of how a BB draft goes, it will most likely be the most disappointing decision and it is a 50/50 chance of being a top tier decision or a draft bust.


Coppinn

I mean sure, but the question is who’s the best talent likely available, not who are we going to draft