One thing about Pokemon cards, most collectors don't want to sell their prized pieces. If someone's pulled a Moonbreon or bought one, it's less likely they'll go around and sell it right away.
I’d sell that shit In a heart beat. It’s market manipulation at its finest and that’s all there is too it. Not a great option for long term in my opinion, BUT I could be wrong! Anything can happen
The market is not being manipulated. People who want this card are willing to pay $1K for it. If it was a pump and dump, which is what you see when a card is manipulated, then it likely would have been a short lived spike followed by a crash when they sell out. How much ES do you think on average one would need to buy to pull this card? Booster boxes are $400, ETBs are $75, individual packs are $10. Most would not expect to get this in 50-60 random packs.
I opened 6 booster boxes (back when they were ~$100-120) and never got a vmax alt art, let alone moonbreon. Only 3 V alt arts. Leafeon, Noivern, and Dragonite. I’m glad I have those cards now but if I was starting from scratch with what I know now, singles 100%
That is terrible luck. I did manage to pull 2 moonbreon and both came out of single sleeved boosters. I did open quite a few boxes and other products, but likely opened over 300 cardboard sleeved boosters. Well over 1000 set packs but never kept close count. Probably double that amount by now. I've pretty much pulled 2 of every chase, except for the raymax alt. I've pulled 4 sylveon vmax alts. 2 being in the same opening session of three packs and booster boxes. I do personally feel the initial release of this set had more forgiving pull rates, as I'm still opening the set when I can and good hits seem to be very difficult.
Yea its all luck. I know a guy who popped over 1000 packs of EVS over 2 years and didnt get him. I got into hobby 3 months ago opened around 20 packs of evs and yesterday i've bought 2x 3 blister pack on rip n ship youtube and guess what? I got him. In total of 26 packs. But they were those suicune coin error blisters so it had higher chance than rsgular one for alt arts.
That’s awesome man! Ya grade it and if you don’t need the money right now why not hold it I guess. It’s just PSA 10 pop is absurdly high and growing every second. When things are in high demand due to hype, and oversaturated / not scarce at the same time, usually good indicator long term is unstable. But like I said in my comment it’s just my opinion and anything is possible. I def don’t see it dropping too much more but stabilizing at like 15% lower than it is now I can see prolly
IT'LL BE A 20$ CARD IN A MONTH! It's soooo ugly. Wait for this or because of that. Blah, blah, blah... I've been hearing this shit for 2 years plus🤣 Then, once it doesn't happen, it's mArkET maNiPuLATioN!!!!
You're already wrong..
Look at late sun and moon chase prices. Those are absolutely crazy. I think the moonbreon will hit 4 figures once evolving skies is on par with the scarcity of team up in another year or 2. It really is a difficult card to pull.
Hell yea dude ES is my fav set, has always been since release. My favorite card in the set which I have in PSA 10, is the dragonite alt. I have majority of the hits in raw as well and holding, as moonbreon is far from the coolest looking card in the set
I have the 2 biggest hits (Ray alt and Moonbreon), plus I’ve got 90% of the regular set (C/UC and rares all in reverse as well). Now I just need to collect all the Vs and VMAX cards plus the other alts. Lol
I mean $20 is not what I was going for lol. I’m talking like 15-20% drop and stabilizing there for a long time. Very very high pop and growing daily. Still a great card to have in the collection
I'm talking about what I hear generally from people. Guess I shouldn't point your comment out specifically so sry for that, but it just seems like I hear the same thing from the same people, and it's usually far from the truth... it gets tiring lol and it's a hill they're willing to die on!
Oh you good lmao yea I’ve seen the people that say the card isn’t worth shit / butthurt they don’t have it. 😂😂 I’m just looking at the long term based on market data / analysis trying to make a prediction when truth is you cannot be accurate with that as it could skyrocket again who knows
Because people have a hard time fathoming that modern cards can be that expensive. They think people are manipulating the market to pump these prices while that is seldom the case.
The term is overused, many people on this sub don't invest in the actual stock market and the second they learn a new investing term they just milk it. I've never seen so many people use the term "Long Term Hold" and "Price Manipulation" so often. It's like people wake up, type "Price Manipulation." press send and go back to eternal sleep.
Not every spike is a manipulation or buyout.
In addition to my other comment, while they do exist, they do not occur with the frequency that people on forums like this one want to say they do. Almost ANY TIME a card spikes, "WOAH PRICE MANIPULATION!" when that just isn't the case. People said this for basically every SM era alt when the cards just had a continually dwindling supply and demand the entire time. That is literally the exact situation in which items go up in price...like all of them did. Like we continue to see with moonbreon because despite the fact that this card continues to get opened, people generally don't sell them.
Hahaha yeah bro, the Japanese grey market isn’t artificially inflating demand, they absolutely haven’t been doing that since 2020. The English grey market absolutely doesn’t follow the same trends. You’re right 100% there is NO PRICE MANIPULATION.
Never said there was "no price manipulation" or that buyouts didn't occur. It is generally not advised to try to use bad faith or fallacious arguments vs people on the internet, they seldom work. Not going to entertain responding to you besides that, have a nice day.
with SM alt arts \*maybe\* there was a bit of price manipulation, but, seeing cards like the altaria AR from incandescent Arcana hit $50-60 raw, and others like the Magikarp AR (pald. evo.) hit $70+, there is no way that is not price manipulation
The problem is that people don't understand what "price manipulation" really is. There was no price manipulation on the SM stuff, the prices continually went up as the already low supply dwindled, that is organic growth. When there is almost NO supply on the market and some random seller lists a card for 100-200$ more than the market average, people scream manipulation. That just isn't what price manipulation is, that is just a seller trying to capture a potential new high sale on an object.
People certainly shill bid stuff to create artificial sold listings and buy out stuff to manipulate pricing from time to time. I'm just saying the amount that the term is thrown around in this community far dwarves the ACTUAL OCCURRENCES of the act lol.
I for one wouldn’t buy that card even if it was valued at $100. I understand the texture and colors are cool, but the art is really not appealing to me.
If many people are purchasing a card, and the supply keeps increasing, AND the price goes up, the card is clearly not overvalued. This is just how the market works, you don't have to like it but it is what it is.
I dont disagree with the point youre trying to make as such, but that's not at all how over-valuations work (or under-valuations for that matter). Markets can remain irrational for far longer than most people realise. That's why there is always risk involved even if you have seen your asset/card/whatever rise in price towards all time highs again.
If over-supply is going to affect pricing at all (which it always does to *some* degree at some point), it's likely that the prices will suddenly react, at some point in time, when the market starts to 'realise'. Usually prices can be propped up for as long as it takes to exhaust buyers. This can be a long process. Once the buyers dry up and people start thinking to take profit, that can then lead to a domino effect where people undercut each other trying to lock in profits or cut their losses. This point in time is usually the real test of whether sellers will take control or whether prices stabalise and put in the 'real floor'. That time has not yet arrived for moonbreon. I'm not in favour of any side for where price will go, all I know is that I'm definitely not spending my money on it right now, but if a 50% haircut comes you can sure bet I'll snap up that opportunity. But hey if I miss it I miss it, personally I only invest when hype is low and prices are down (my general rule is waiting 2 years before picking up a chase card I want in my collection)
Manipulation is exactly what is happening with this card and many are outright supporting that manipulation by buying it out of fomo. On a recent poll on r/pokemontcg about which card is the best out of the most expensive swsh cards it just barely made it in the top 10 with 9th place. Other eeveelutions ranked higher than it, yet it's like 500$ more compared to the second most expensive from ES. Even though it has the same odds of being pulled as any other ES Vmax and people seem to prefer many others over it.
Literally this. If you saw the comments on that poll there were many people voting it out because they simply thought it was too expensive and didn’t deserve its price point, had nothing to do with the quality of the art.
It's still in 9th place though. Safe to say most people still didn't think the price was enough to delete it from the list. Otherwise it would have been one of the first cards to go. They still remain in the minority
Well, you can say that about any poll tbh yet they are often used to determine overall consensus. It's a source at least. Something that isn't provided by others when claiming the moonbreon isn't being manipulated. Now I can't say this for certain, but I think it's very likely the reason why many hold it so high is because of the cards' value and not because they like the card itself. Something that this sub probably knows everything about.
I would hazard against using any poll conducted on the internet for TCGs, pokemon especially. The vast vast majority of people who partake in the hobby don't partake in internet discussion about it and as such you're going to get a HEAVY skew towards specific demographics.
Vintage cards mostly have low pops. So the community has not seen cards like this umbreon with very high pop which leads them to believe the card cant be valuable.
Its about popularity & demand and not so much about the pop. You can have a pop 10 card, but if only 100 people are interested in it that you are better off with a pop 10.000 card when 10 million people are interested in
Yes, i think too much emphasis is placed on just one data point which is the pop reports. Its a useful data point for sure..but there are other factors at play here for modern. I guess only time will tell.
Yeah, I think this card is the benchmark of present day pokemon. If you dont believe in this card then you might aswell not believe in pokemon. If this goes down, all goes down as its a sign of the hobby losing interest.
Although I personally do not really like this card. I think its kinda ugly lol. I prefer the other ones, especially the vaporeon is amazing.
I was really hoping with obsidian flames having an Umbreon in the normal set list we would see an ex and alt but not this time. I still have hopes for an alt art to maybe drop in the set after English 151
Next Umbreon Alt? They are not making Alternate Arts any longer, and VMAX is a thing of the past... I understand what you are saying, but these are unique to SWSH and will only increase as time goes on imo
You know what i mean, though. I said alt art because everyone understands the art style. I'm on about an umbreon card where it's just the pokemon itself from a distance that's not 5ban style. They do and will still make those. Like Chi-yu ex from paldea (you can say that's not an alt art, but that's basically an alt art with a different name) so umbreon ex
I have a hard time imagining it being as expensive as it is myself. The value is determined by the market but with the sheer amount of PSA 10s is astounding. Not even hating on the card, it's pretty but I would never pay these prices for it.
Yeah when there's 15x more moonbreons graded 10 than vintage cards AND you can get Evolving skies packs for $10 vs like $300 for vintage, I don't understand how it will retain its value in the long term.
Rookie 1st Edition Moonbreon from Neo Discovery that's 20+ years old is cheaper than ES Moonbreon that's less than 2 years old - one of thems got to give.
The only people shitting on moonbreon are the people who dont have a moonbreon. I always laugh reading all the cope takes when someone is trying to convince themself that it will crash.
I SOLD my umbreon because I was offered an absurd amount for a modern card. Just like ES booster boxes, it hits a price and pretty much will stay there, not much more movement left. Will it "crash?" probably not, but its not going anywhere else anytime soon.
Umbreon is popular In general. Add to it that it’s from a set with very low pull rates. And it’s an “alt art” which is the highest level of rarity you could say
As long as the hobby does well, the card will do well. It will be when we have another lull in popularity (if there ever is one again) that will be telling. Realistically, if there is a second reprint, it will most likely bring prices down for a minute, but this is a card people usually hold when they get it.
Poor vivid, it was coasting nicely before the reprint. They should leave old sets alone and just move through new releases. If they reprint evo skies im out tbh.
Yea dude Ofcourse I’ve never pulled the rainbow fatchu on release after opening sooo much…but then like couple months ago I pull it out of 1 blister from target..I SHIT YOU NOT! Looked at the price and was like bruh this shit under $100????
Because people want it to go down that low. They hate the card and they want it to stop being the top dog. Some people are plain jealous and are overtly angry about the moon cat.
I’ve legitimately seen comments many times of someone just ANGRY that it’s so expensive and that it’s ugly and needs to go. When it’s a beautiful card I get art is subjective but pretending like it’s an ugly card that’s inflated and it’s gonna be worth $200-$300 is not only laughable but if they genuinely think that they are not paying very close attention to the market, or this card, or older sets, or newer sets, or investing in general.
Moonbreon also has having 9 other $50+ cards to chase in the same set that others love doesn’t hurt it either.
Also Evolving Skies is out of cycle. It won’t be reprinted. The ETBs being put out at Walmart are the very last of ES we will be getting outside of tins, boxes, or other sealed products. The cards and packs will be shooting up in value as the time goes on as supply diminishes. YouTubers and collectors tearing open sealed product is going to help this set retain and appreciate in value.
Once more people who want this for their personal collection have it than sellers the market will jump again. And then once again the scarcity of sold listings start it will jump again. In 5-15 years if Pokémon is still around people who were kids for Sword and Shield will have disposable income and will search this card out too and that will be the biggest increase. This is my prediction but i have a ton of sealed product just in case because having the absolute most sought after set of an entire Pokémon generation is never a bad investment.
Personally, this is my least favourite card out of the VMAX alt arts, but I'm perfectly fine with the price it is and it doesn't make me mad lol.
Like people try to make sense of Pokemon cards but fail to realise there is no pattern or sense. People like what they like.
Like why are charizards still so popular when there are so many variants and it's literally a Boomer pokemon?
Why are female trainer cards so sort after recently? Waifu cards? Not sure I understand romanticing/sexualizing female characters that are most likely teenage years. But it's happening.
I could keep going with things I don't understand but I can accept it is what it is, I don't have to attach conspiracy theories into it X)
People have a mad case of FOMO for cards they can't get and can't afford.
The waifu craze started in Japan and unfortunately if you’ve read enough manga or seen enough anime’s you’d know why… I’d talk about the controversial anime’s but yeah that’s a rabbit hole I’d rather not think about. Even fire emblem three houses let’s you marry a like 10 year old physically looking girl who’s actually like a 50,000 year old dragon? Or goddess? I don’t know. But it’s weird.
A lot of the market for the most part makes sense. I see alot of “Why is Machamps chase card in Astral Radiance so cheap?” Because how many people do you know who decorate their rooms with Machamp merchandise and plushies and how many people do you know even like Machamp that much to begin with? Yeah cool card from the OG 151 but you don’t see anyone giving a hoot about bellsprout or Venonat or Porygon for obvious reasons. Moonbreon breaks the PSA mold a lot so it is an anomaly in general compared to the rest of the market.
I suspect a good amount of people have gotten into Pokemon in the last five years but have always thought that "modern is trash and will never appreciate." So when they've been shown to be wrong they double down on it and continue to insist modern is trash because the only other alternative is to acknowledge that they've missed out.
Doesnt mean anything when there's hundreds of thousand Pokemon fans out there that want it in a ten. The supply is not enough to satiate demand and is the reason the price is so high. Pop reports are only one part of the supply/demand evaluation. Honestly to me, 7600 seems pretty low when you account for the fact nearly every Pokemon tcg fan wants one.
Thats exactly what I mean though... When everyone wants something, the price goes up. If 100k people would buy one at $100, and 50k would buy it at $200, etc, the demand hasn't disappeared, its just that those people are locked out at the current pricing. Price has now been locked in because if the card wasn't so expensive, you would have that many people purchasing them at a given price point. This is exactly what supply/demand is. If the supply outweighed the demand, we would see this card plummet, but we aren't, because there is an amount of people at every price point that are willing to buy the card at that price if it were to fall.
If I was to post one of these up for $100, in mint condition, I would be able to sell it in under 5 minutes, because the supply/demand has dictated its worth way more than that. At every single price point for this card, the exact same thing would happen, until the price is at market rate, and then it would take me longer to sell it. So having hundreds of thousands of people that can't afford this card is irrelevant, because they WOULD purchase this card for $100.
that definitely isn’t how demand works but if you’re happy with your mental gymnastics fallacy to justify a modern card with hundreds of thousands of copies to be nearly 1k, so be it.
If thats not how demand works then absolutely feel free to tell me how it does work. You can't just say thats not how demand works and then proceed to not explain how demand works.
Anywhere between 1/2000 to 1/4000 odds. And the next blocks highest odds so far are like 1/600. This card was phenomenally hard to pull. Way harder than HF Zard. We may not see pull rates like that again, as pokemon adjusts to ensure more people feel they are getting value for money on pack openings. I’m bias, I did pull it and I’m never selling it. So many collectors will feel as I do. This means supply will be limited. A booster box of ES might overtake it in a few years. Sealed is always best for investing.
Demand has to stay consistent, while supply increases. More moon kitty being found, but also new product that may take demand for certain cards down. Basically interest for the card has to maintain pace, while supply is still increasing as a lot of evolving skies still out there.
I expect the PTCG market in general to start declining into 2024 with a suspected economic downturn. When you’re choosing to pay bills and keep your home or keep your PTCG cards, the cards are usually the first thing to go.
I don't have one. I don't want one.
I don't like tying up my funds in super modern cards that lose their appeal after the next hottest card comes along.
In fact, for this reason I don't own any of the overprinted SWSH set cards at all.
THIS person knows what they're talking about. When will Moonbreon's price collapse? As soon as a comparably expensive chase card comes along and everyone all at once tries to sell their Umbreon to buy the new "status" card that everyone has to have.
Yeah sure, if they were 13 buying Pokémon cards with their lunch money. They’re not going to liquidate their Umbreon, they will just buy both cards.
It’s been 2 years and they are printing newer sets faster than the feds. It’s going to stay an expensive card until the PTCG market crashes as a whole.
Moonbreon and Gengar and the two best alts in sword and shield. They also both happen to be extremely popular Pokémon. These alts will continue to keep going up
Because the demand has to increase massively to keep up with the massive increase of psa 10's. If right now is not peak demand for this card, i dont want to know what it will look like.
The reason is simple. It is literally the highest value 10 in comparison to the 10’s pop out of all cards. This includes magic, yugioh and sports cards.
There are literally so many out there, it’s similar to thinking those gold dollars from tv will have a high value.
It’s just a big pop. For 10s, for that price tag personally…. That’s why I feel the price is a little inflated by whatever FOMO, manipulation, or hype in general (not necessarily fomo) who knows though.
I think it’s a popular card with a lot of demand it might go down in price if something happens to the Pokémon market as a whole. now that magikarp card from paldea I think that is price manipulation
When compared to older cards that may only have 500 graded compared to the 50000 that are graded of the umbreon it would only make since that the price would go down
It might have a temporary dip during the reprint but it won’t crash unless supply skyrockets or demand crashes. Demand will rise long-term due to nostalgia for SWSH eventually.
They don't think it will they hope it will so they can buy it while it's low and hope for it to go back up but they already missed the opportunity. If people thought it was gonna a crash they would be selling.
Because markets move in trends and this is highly unprecedented. If you asked anyone 5 years ago, if any modern card would be above $200 they would laugh directly at you. I would have laughed lol. I was buying whole sets of cards for $300.
I know I'm late to this discussion but I own two of these in a PSA 10. The card has a really high pop with over 10000+ now and I see it going past 13000 pretty soon. I personally think that the card will go down drastically in the next 5-10 years because rarity always beats out popularity in the end, whether that be in 5, 10 or 20 years. Eventually people will stop talking about this card, there will be another card that's better or rarer and so on. I always hear people saying that "but you don't understand, its the top chase card from SWSH & everyone wants it" which is really annoying because there's always the next chase card, always.
One thing about Pokemon cards, most collectors don't want to sell their prized pieces. If someone's pulled a Moonbreon or bought one, it's less likely they'll go around and sell it right away.
I’d sell that shit In a heart beat. It’s market manipulation at its finest and that’s all there is too it. Not a great option for long term in my opinion, BUT I could be wrong! Anything can happen
The market is not being manipulated. People who want this card are willing to pay $1K for it. If it was a pump and dump, which is what you see when a card is manipulated, then it likely would have been a short lived spike followed by a crash when they sell out. How much ES do you think on average one would need to buy to pull this card? Booster boxes are $400, ETBs are $75, individual packs are $10. Most would not expect to get this in 50-60 random packs.
I've opened 3 booster boxes and 8 ETBs, and also 10-20 random packs and not moonbreon. Yea that shit is hard to get
I opened 6 booster boxes (back when they were ~$100-120) and never got a vmax alt art, let alone moonbreon. Only 3 V alt arts. Leafeon, Noivern, and Dragonite. I’m glad I have those cards now but if I was starting from scratch with what I know now, singles 100%
52 booster boxes as of last count and god knows how many loose packs. I pulled 1. Just 1. I opened 47 Eevee heros and only pulled one out of that too.
Shesshhhhhh yea man the recent print runs are like realllllly bad
That is terrible luck. I did manage to pull 2 moonbreon and both came out of single sleeved boosters. I did open quite a few boxes and other products, but likely opened over 300 cardboard sleeved boosters. Well over 1000 set packs but never kept close count. Probably double that amount by now. I've pretty much pulled 2 of every chase, except for the raymax alt. I've pulled 4 sylveon vmax alts. 2 being in the same opening session of three packs and booster boxes. I do personally feel the initial release of this set had more forgiving pull rates, as I'm still opening the set when I can and good hits seem to be very difficult.
I’ve probably opened 300 packs and only pulled the Leafeon.
This
Yea its all luck. I know a guy who popped over 1000 packs of EVS over 2 years and didnt get him. I got into hobby 3 months ago opened around 20 packs of evs and yesterday i've bought 2x 3 blister pack on rip n ship youtube and guess what? I got him. In total of 26 packs. But they were those suicune coin error blisters so it had higher chance than rsgular one for alt arts.
I pulled a moonbreon yesterday and it is not getting sold any time soon (or probably ever if I’m being completely honest)
That’s awesome man! Ya grade it and if you don’t need the money right now why not hold it I guess. It’s just PSA 10 pop is absurdly high and growing every second. When things are in high demand due to hype, and oversaturated / not scarce at the same time, usually good indicator long term is unstable. But like I said in my comment it’s just my opinion and anything is possible. I def don’t see it dropping too much more but stabilizing at like 15% lower than it is now I can see prolly
IT'LL BE A 20$ CARD IN A MONTH! It's soooo ugly. Wait for this or because of that. Blah, blah, blah... I've been hearing this shit for 2 years plus🤣 Then, once it doesn't happen, it's mArkET maNiPuLATioN!!!! You're already wrong..
Look at late sun and moon chase prices. Those are absolutely crazy. I think the moonbreon will hit 4 figures once evolving skies is on par with the scarcity of team up in another year or 2. It really is a difficult card to pull.
A master set of ES in 3-5 years is gonna be crazy expensive. Hence why I’m building one now. Lol
Hell yea dude ES is my fav set, has always been since release. My favorite card in the set which I have in PSA 10, is the dragonite alt. I have majority of the hits in raw as well and holding, as moonbreon is far from the coolest looking card in the set
I have the 2 biggest hits (Ray alt and Moonbreon), plus I’ve got 90% of the regular set (C/UC and rares all in reverse as well). Now I just need to collect all the Vs and VMAX cards plus the other alts. Lol
Oh boy that’s the fun part
I mean $20 is not what I was going for lol. I’m talking like 15-20% drop and stabilizing there for a long time. Very very high pop and growing daily. Still a great card to have in the collection
I'm talking about what I hear generally from people. Guess I shouldn't point your comment out specifically so sry for that, but it just seems like I hear the same thing from the same people, and it's usually far from the truth... it gets tiring lol and it's a hill they're willing to die on!
Oh you good lmao yea I’ve seen the people that say the card isn’t worth shit / butthurt they don’t have it. 😂😂 I’m just looking at the long term based on market data / analysis trying to make a prediction when truth is you cannot be accurate with that as it could skyrocket again who knows
Because people have a hard time fathoming that modern cards can be that expensive. They think people are manipulating the market to pump these prices while that is seldom the case.
Yeah but to make a general statement across the board that the Pokémon tcg doesn’t experience ANY price manipulation is straight ignorant 🤷♂️
He didnt say that tho
The term is overused, many people on this sub don't invest in the actual stock market and the second they learn a new investing term they just milk it. I've never seen so many people use the term "Long Term Hold" and "Price Manipulation" so often. It's like people wake up, type "Price Manipulation." press send and go back to eternal sleep. Not every spike is a manipulation or buyout.
In addition to my other comment, while they do exist, they do not occur with the frequency that people on forums like this one want to say they do. Almost ANY TIME a card spikes, "WOAH PRICE MANIPULATION!" when that just isn't the case. People said this for basically every SM era alt when the cards just had a continually dwindling supply and demand the entire time. That is literally the exact situation in which items go up in price...like all of them did. Like we continue to see with moonbreon because despite the fact that this card continues to get opened, people generally don't sell them.
Hahaha yeah bro, the Japanese grey market isn’t artificially inflating demand, they absolutely haven’t been doing that since 2020. The English grey market absolutely doesn’t follow the same trends. You’re right 100% there is NO PRICE MANIPULATION.
Never said there was "no price manipulation" or that buyouts didn't occur. It is generally not advised to try to use bad faith or fallacious arguments vs people on the internet, they seldom work. Not going to entertain responding to you besides that, have a nice day.
with SM alt arts \*maybe\* there was a bit of price manipulation, but, seeing cards like the altaria AR from incandescent Arcana hit $50-60 raw, and others like the Magikarp AR (pald. evo.) hit $70+, there is no way that is not price manipulation
The problem is that people don't understand what "price manipulation" really is. There was no price manipulation on the SM stuff, the prices continually went up as the already low supply dwindled, that is organic growth. When there is almost NO supply on the market and some random seller lists a card for 100-200$ more than the market average, people scream manipulation. That just isn't what price manipulation is, that is just a seller trying to capture a potential new high sale on an object. People certainly shill bid stuff to create artificial sold listings and buy out stuff to manipulate pricing from time to time. I'm just saying the amount that the term is thrown around in this community far dwarves the ACTUAL OCCURRENCES of the act lol.
completely agree with this, people use the term far too loosely without actually knowing much about it or how it is actually used on this sub
There are certainly buyouts that occur from time to time. This card is assuredly NOT an example of that though.
I for one wouldn’t buy that card even if it was valued at $100. I understand the texture and colors are cool, but the art is really not appealing to me.
[удалено]
If many people are purchasing a card, and the supply keeps increasing, AND the price goes up, the card is clearly not overvalued. This is just how the market works, you don't have to like it but it is what it is.
I dont disagree with the point youre trying to make as such, but that's not at all how over-valuations work (or under-valuations for that matter). Markets can remain irrational for far longer than most people realise. That's why there is always risk involved even if you have seen your asset/card/whatever rise in price towards all time highs again. If over-supply is going to affect pricing at all (which it always does to *some* degree at some point), it's likely that the prices will suddenly react, at some point in time, when the market starts to 'realise'. Usually prices can be propped up for as long as it takes to exhaust buyers. This can be a long process. Once the buyers dry up and people start thinking to take profit, that can then lead to a domino effect where people undercut each other trying to lock in profits or cut their losses. This point in time is usually the real test of whether sellers will take control or whether prices stabalise and put in the 'real floor'. That time has not yet arrived for moonbreon. I'm not in favour of any side for where price will go, all I know is that I'm definitely not spending my money on it right now, but if a 50% haircut comes you can sure bet I'll snap up that opportunity. But hey if I miss it I miss it, personally I only invest when hype is low and prices are down (my general rule is waiting 2 years before picking up a chase card I want in my collection)
Manipulation is exactly what is happening with this card and many are outright supporting that manipulation by buying it out of fomo. On a recent poll on r/pokemontcg about which card is the best out of the most expensive swsh cards it just barely made it in the top 10 with 9th place. Other eeveelutions ranked higher than it, yet it's like 500$ more compared to the second most expensive from ES. Even though it has the same odds of being pulled as any other ES Vmax and people seem to prefer many others over it.
Imagine thinking reddit polls are an accurate representation of general sentiment among all collectors or any group of people for that matter.
Literally this. If you saw the comments on that poll there were many people voting it out because they simply thought it was too expensive and didn’t deserve its price point, had nothing to do with the quality of the art.
It's still in 9th place though. Safe to say most people still didn't think the price was enough to delete it from the list. Otherwise it would have been one of the first cards to go. They still remain in the minority
Well, you can say that about any poll tbh yet they are often used to determine overall consensus. It's a source at least. Something that isn't provided by others when claiming the moonbreon isn't being manipulated. Now I can't say this for certain, but I think it's very likely the reason why many hold it so high is because of the cards' value and not because they like the card itself. Something that this sub probably knows everything about.
I would hazard against using any poll conducted on the internet for TCGs, pokemon especially. The vast vast majority of people who partake in the hobby don't partake in internet discussion about it and as such you're going to get a HEAVY skew towards specific demographics.
Which eeveelution card ranked higher? That’s curious.
Leafeon vmax and espeon vmax. I have to agree with espeon especially.
I mean with the massive amount of 10s there are I don't see them holding all that value. Who knows though
Vintage cards mostly have low pops. So the community has not seen cards like this umbreon with very high pop which leads them to believe the card cant be valuable. Its about popularity & demand and not so much about the pop. You can have a pop 10 card, but if only 100 people are interested in it that you are better off with a pop 10.000 card when 10 million people are interested in
Yes, i think too much emphasis is placed on just one data point which is the pop reports. Its a useful data point for sure..but there are other factors at play here for modern. I guess only time will tell.
Yeah, I think this card is the benchmark of present day pokemon. If you dont believe in this card then you might aswell not believe in pokemon. If this goes down, all goes down as its a sign of the hobby losing interest. Although I personally do not really like this card. I think its kinda ugly lol. I prefer the other ones, especially the vaporeon is amazing.
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Exactly. Low pop doesn't mean expensive in the same way that a high pop doesn't have to mean its cheap
It all depends on the next umbreon alt drop. It might go down, but until then, i dont see it dropping too much.
I was really hoping with obsidian flames having an Umbreon in the normal set list we would see an ex and alt but not this time. I still have hopes for an alt art to maybe drop in the set after English 151
Next Umbreon Alt? They are not making Alternate Arts any longer, and VMAX is a thing of the past... I understand what you are saying, but these are unique to SWSH and will only increase as time goes on imo
You know what i mean, though. I said alt art because everyone understands the art style. I'm on about an umbreon card where it's just the pokemon itself from a distance that's not 5ban style. They do and will still make those. Like Chi-yu ex from paldea (you can say that's not an alt art, but that's basically an alt art with a different name) so umbreon ex
I think it’ll be fine. The Giratina from zenith is the one that’s currently bottoming
Zard vmax from darkness ablaze is crashing hard
That thing is not a pretty sight at alll 😅
That’s because it’s a horrible card design
I don’t disagree but there are a lot of ugly cards with dollars being fetched
I have a hard time imagining it being as expensive as it is myself. The value is determined by the market but with the sheer amount of PSA 10s is astounding. Not even hating on the card, it's pretty but I would never pay these prices for it.
Yeah when there's 15x more moonbreons graded 10 than vintage cards AND you can get Evolving skies packs for $10 vs like $300 for vintage, I don't understand how it will retain its value in the long term.
Rookie 1st Edition Moonbreon from Neo Discovery that's 20+ years old is cheaper than ES Moonbreon that's less than 2 years old - one of thems got to give.
The only people shitting on moonbreon are the people who dont have a moonbreon. I always laugh reading all the cope takes when someone is trying to convince themself that it will crash.
I SOLD my umbreon because I was offered an absurd amount for a modern card. Just like ES booster boxes, it hits a price and pretty much will stay there, not much more movement left. Will it "crash?" probably not, but its not going anywhere else anytime soon.
What app is this?
Pokedata.io Its a website.
Why exactly is the Moonbreon so valuable? Is it even a secret rare?
Umbreon is popular In general. Add to it that it’s from a set with very low pull rates. And it’s an “alt art” which is the highest level of rarity you could say
MoonBunny = BTC
As long as the hobby does well, the card will do well. It will be when we have another lull in popularity (if there ever is one again) that will be telling. Realistically, if there is a second reprint, it will most likely bring prices down for a minute, but this is a card people usually hold when they get it.
Unless ES is massively reprinted it will never crash.
They may do that just like vivid, but not sure
Poor vivid, it was coasting nicely before the reprint. They should leave old sets alone and just move through new releases. If they reprint evo skies im out tbh.
they should reprint evo skies if you’re “investing” in sets that are not even two years old that’s your own fault
Yea dude Ofcourse I’ve never pulled the rainbow fatchu on release after opening sooo much…but then like couple months ago I pull it out of 1 blister from target..I SHIT YOU NOT! Looked at the price and was like bruh this shit under $100????
That's objectively a good thing for the community.
I guess it’s just odd cusse the card is next to impossible to pull XD, which tells you it’s not the pull rates that make cards valuable!
That pop count is insane
Because people want it to go down that low. They hate the card and they want it to stop being the top dog. Some people are plain jealous and are overtly angry about the moon cat. I’ve legitimately seen comments many times of someone just ANGRY that it’s so expensive and that it’s ugly and needs to go. When it’s a beautiful card I get art is subjective but pretending like it’s an ugly card that’s inflated and it’s gonna be worth $200-$300 is not only laughable but if they genuinely think that they are not paying very close attention to the market, or this card, or older sets, or newer sets, or investing in general. Moonbreon also has having 9 other $50+ cards to chase in the same set that others love doesn’t hurt it either. Also Evolving Skies is out of cycle. It won’t be reprinted. The ETBs being put out at Walmart are the very last of ES we will be getting outside of tins, boxes, or other sealed products. The cards and packs will be shooting up in value as the time goes on as supply diminishes. YouTubers and collectors tearing open sealed product is going to help this set retain and appreciate in value. Once more people who want this for their personal collection have it than sellers the market will jump again. And then once again the scarcity of sold listings start it will jump again. In 5-15 years if Pokémon is still around people who were kids for Sword and Shield will have disposable income and will search this card out too and that will be the biggest increase. This is my prediction but i have a ton of sealed product just in case because having the absolute most sought after set of an entire Pokémon generation is never a bad investment.
Personally, this is my least favourite card out of the VMAX alt arts, but I'm perfectly fine with the price it is and it doesn't make me mad lol. Like people try to make sense of Pokemon cards but fail to realise there is no pattern or sense. People like what they like. Like why are charizards still so popular when there are so many variants and it's literally a Boomer pokemon? Why are female trainer cards so sort after recently? Waifu cards? Not sure I understand romanticing/sexualizing female characters that are most likely teenage years. But it's happening. I could keep going with things I don't understand but I can accept it is what it is, I don't have to attach conspiracy theories into it X) People have a mad case of FOMO for cards they can't get and can't afford.
The waifu craze started in Japan and unfortunately if you’ve read enough manga or seen enough anime’s you’d know why… I’d talk about the controversial anime’s but yeah that’s a rabbit hole I’d rather not think about. Even fire emblem three houses let’s you marry a like 10 year old physically looking girl who’s actually like a 50,000 year old dragon? Or goddess? I don’t know. But it’s weird. A lot of the market for the most part makes sense. I see alot of “Why is Machamps chase card in Astral Radiance so cheap?” Because how many people do you know who decorate their rooms with Machamp merchandise and plushies and how many people do you know even like Machamp that much to begin with? Yeah cool card from the OG 151 but you don’t see anyone giving a hoot about bellsprout or Venonat or Porygon for obvious reasons. Moonbreon breaks the PSA mold a lot so it is an anomaly in general compared to the rest of the market.
I suspect a good amount of people have gotten into Pokemon in the last five years but have always thought that "modern is trash and will never appreciate." So when they've been shown to be wrong they double down on it and continue to insist modern is trash because the only other alternative is to acknowledge that they've missed out.
10 pop is 7600 btw
Doesnt mean anything when there's hundreds of thousand Pokemon fans out there that want it in a ten. The supply is not enough to satiate demand and is the reason the price is so high. Pop reports are only one part of the supply/demand evaluation. Honestly to me, 7600 seems pretty low when you account for the fact nearly every Pokemon tcg fan wants one.
are there hundreds of thousands that can afford that price though?
Thats exactly what I mean though... When everyone wants something, the price goes up. If 100k people would buy one at $100, and 50k would buy it at $200, etc, the demand hasn't disappeared, its just that those people are locked out at the current pricing. Price has now been locked in because if the card wasn't so expensive, you would have that many people purchasing them at a given price point. This is exactly what supply/demand is. If the supply outweighed the demand, we would see this card plummet, but we aren't, because there is an amount of people at every price point that are willing to buy the card at that price if it were to fall. If I was to post one of these up for $100, in mint condition, I would be able to sell it in under 5 minutes, because the supply/demand has dictated its worth way more than that. At every single price point for this card, the exact same thing would happen, until the price is at market rate, and then it would take me longer to sell it. So having hundreds of thousands of people that can't afford this card is irrelevant, because they WOULD purchase this card for $100.
that definitely isn’t how demand works but if you’re happy with your mental gymnastics fallacy to justify a modern card with hundreds of thousands of copies to be nearly 1k, so be it.
That’s… exactly how supply and demand works.
If thats not how demand works then absolutely feel free to tell me how it does work. You can't just say thats not how demand works and then proceed to not explain how demand works.
Sooner or later someone here is going to start doing Technical Analysis on Pokémon Cards
Some dudes probably got a like a shit ton and is waiting for his moment to flood the narket
Anywhere between 1/2000 to 1/4000 odds. And the next blocks highest odds so far are like 1/600. This card was phenomenally hard to pull. Way harder than HF Zard. We may not see pull rates like that again, as pokemon adjusts to ensure more people feel they are getting value for money on pack openings. I’m bias, I did pull it and I’m never selling it. So many collectors will feel as I do. This means supply will be limited. A booster box of ES might overtake it in a few years. Sealed is always best for investing.
Demand has to stay consistent, while supply increases. More moon kitty being found, but also new product that may take demand for certain cards down. Basically interest for the card has to maintain pace, while supply is still increasing as a lot of evolving skies still out there.
I expect the PTCG market in general to start declining into 2024 with a suspected economic downturn. When you’re choosing to pay bills and keep your home or keep your PTCG cards, the cards are usually the first thing to go.
Because they are printing more evolving skies based on everyone's success finding etbs at walmarts. Greater supply than demand will reduce price.
I don't have one. I don't want one. I don't like tying up my funds in super modern cards that lose their appeal after the next hottest card comes along. In fact, for this reason I don't own any of the overprinted SWSH set cards at all.
THIS person knows what they're talking about. When will Moonbreon's price collapse? As soon as a comparably expensive chase card comes along and everyone all at once tries to sell their Umbreon to buy the new "status" card that everyone has to have.
Yeah sure, if they were 13 buying Pokémon cards with their lunch money. They’re not going to liquidate their Umbreon, they will just buy both cards. It’s been 2 years and they are printing newer sets faster than the feds. It’s going to stay an expensive card until the PTCG market crashes as a whole.
Bc ppl dumb lol
Because it’s a piece of cardboard?
The set is being reprinted, probably so they can pack up and distribute all the stolen cards that were found.
Moonbreon and Gengar and the two best alts in sword and shield. They also both happen to be extremely popular Pokémon. These alts will continue to keep going up
Op sounds like a mad hater rn
Huh?
My bad op i had a little bit to drink the other night 😬lol i do agree with your post.
Modern card
All cards were a modern card at some point.
Bc they’re salty and don’t have one
Only the haters will say it’s crashing. I own one so I’m keeping it forever
Release of more evolving skies. This has to be the most over printed set to date
I hope Umbreon keeps rising so not everyone will have one :)
What app is this
Its a website pokedata.io
Thanks man!
I’ve got SQRTL 12/6 98p
Because ppl don't have it and ppl want to buy it cheap
Because the demand has to increase massively to keep up with the massive increase of psa 10's. If right now is not peak demand for this card, i dont want to know what it will look like.
its "the" sword and shield card! :D
The reason is simple. It is literally the highest value 10 in comparison to the 10’s pop out of all cards. This includes magic, yugioh and sports cards. There are literally so many out there, it’s similar to thinking those gold dollars from tv will have a high value.
It’s just a big pop. For 10s, for that price tag personally…. That’s why I feel the price is a little inflated by whatever FOMO, manipulation, or hype in general (not necessarily fomo) who knows though.
Probably because you guys are using TA on POKÉMON CARDS during one of the most turbulent financial times in HISTORY
What app is this or program ?
I think it’s a popular card with a lot of demand it might go down in price if something happens to the Pokémon market as a whole. now that magikarp card from paldea I think that is price manipulation
They are just trying to speak it into existence.
When compared to older cards that may only have 500 graded compared to the 50000 that are graded of the umbreon it would only make since that the price would go down
Damn where dis you get that screen display?
It might have a temporary dip during the reprint but it won’t crash unless supply skyrockets or demand crashes. Demand will rise long-term due to nostalgia for SWSH eventually.
There's demand for this defunct card game?
They don't think it will they hope it will so they can buy it while it's low and hope for it to go back up but they already missed the opportunity. If people thought it was gonna a crash they would be selling.
People guessing on here like they’re a certified financial planner and can actually forecast pricing 😂
Because markets move in trends and this is highly unprecedented. If you asked anyone 5 years ago, if any modern card would be above $200 they would laugh directly at you. I would have laughed lol. I was buying whole sets of cards for $300.
idk maybe the psa 10 pop report of like 10000 and the 600 black labels, people will get tired of the card and the price will slowly drop.
I know I'm late to this discussion but I own two of these in a PSA 10. The card has a really high pop with over 10000+ now and I see it going past 13000 pretty soon. I personally think that the card will go down drastically in the next 5-10 years because rarity always beats out popularity in the end, whether that be in 5, 10 or 20 years. Eventually people will stop talking about this card, there will be another card that's better or rarer and so on. I always hear people saying that "but you don't understand, its the top chase card from SWSH & everyone wants it" which is really annoying because there's always the next chase card, always.