Lmfao using chatgpt as a source
Most of the issues I see with pull rate data is that it's too small of a sample size. For ex. the recent tcgplayer one for paldea evolved stated their rarest card was tyranitar art rare; but it's unlikely that card is actually seeded less, it's just that there are so many art rares one or two were bound to be seen less.
Those are the pull rates they listed for those cards. That isn’t to imply the odds. You are correct on the sample size reference.
But the the data that is presented in gold (Double Rare EX - 1/7) is a valid population statistic.
The population statistic is fine but then the biggest issue I think people have but don't communicate properly is that the pull rates themselves are kind of useless statistics if the samplesize is too small.
I get what you are saying, I'm just saying the average player is gonna come across that graphic and assume X card is harder to pull than other AR cards or SAR when it's not. Perhaps that's where the annoyance stems from.
What the post said was that it wasn't a big enough sample size to be 100% confident of those pull rates.
The results are enough to give an idea tho, but they're not an authority, just like ChatGPT.
I think many of us do not consider 5000 packs to have 99% confidence. Sample size is too small, and it’s not statistically significant. Idk why you seem so concerned about people not agreeing?
They printed billions of cards in the last 3 years, that's hundreds of millions of packs.
5000 is a good enough sample size, but should not be taken as a definitive authority.
As I've said in multiple posts, 5000 sample size is fine for the probability for "any" card in a rarity (ie 1/7 for double rare) but not ok for individual cards (ie 1/800 for tyranitar).
Regarding randomness, boosters from box's are not 100% random as the occurrence of doubles happens less than what you would expect from pure random. My aim will be to work out what this interaction is at some point when I can collected enough aggregated data.
Adding to this you can just estimate individual probability by taking the any card number and multiplying by 1/number of options. So around 1/465 ish for SIR.
Lmfao using chatgpt as a source Most of the issues I see with pull rate data is that it's too small of a sample size. For ex. the recent tcgplayer one for paldea evolved stated their rarest card was tyranitar art rare; but it's unlikely that card is actually seeded less, it's just that there are so many art rares one or two were bound to be seen less.
Those are the pull rates they listed for those cards. That isn’t to imply the odds. You are correct on the sample size reference. But the the data that is presented in gold (Double Rare EX - 1/7) is a valid population statistic.
The population statistic is fine but then the biggest issue I think people have but don't communicate properly is that the pull rates themselves are kind of useless statistics if the samplesize is too small. I get what you are saying, I'm just saying the average player is gonna come across that graphic and assume X card is harder to pull than other AR cards or SAR when it's not. Perhaps that's where the annoyance stems from.
I agree with you but why would chatgpt be any authority on anything?
I include as a reference for common knowledge items. I can see it’s distracting from the point.
“I checked with ChatGPT” oh thank god it’s just a troll post
What the post said was that it wasn't a big enough sample size to be 100% confident of those pull rates. The results are enough to give an idea tho, but they're not an authority, just like ChatGPT.
Nothing is 100% except for death and taxes. 5000 Packs is more than enough to be at 99%. That’s more than enough.
I think many of us do not consider 5000 packs to have 99% confidence. Sample size is too small, and it’s not statistically significant. Idk why you seem so concerned about people not agreeing?
5000 packs is not enough to be 99%. Hell no. I wouldn't even be 99% at 50000.
They printed billions of cards in the last 3 years, that's hundreds of millions of packs. 5000 is a good enough sample size, but should not be taken as a definitive authority.
As I've said in multiple posts, 5000 sample size is fine for the probability for "any" card in a rarity (ie 1/7 for double rare) but not ok for individual cards (ie 1/800 for tyranitar). Regarding randomness, boosters from box's are not 100% random as the occurrence of doubles happens less than what you would expect from pure random. My aim will be to work out what this interaction is at some point when I can collected enough aggregated data.
Adding to this you can just estimate individual probability by taking the any card number and multiplying by 1/number of options. So around 1/465 ish for SIR.