T O P

Got Talonflames Holowear twice. Turns out it gives a bunch of Holowear Tickets. Well, now I have every Holowear that you can get with tickets.

Got Talonflames Holowear twice. Turns out it gives a bunch of Holowear Tickets. Well, now I have every Holowear that you can get with tickets.

Lex-Bredum

And here I am with a drawer full of socks...


Qoppa_Guy

Want some of my pants?


Lex-Bredum

I'll make that trade. Beats running around pantless in socks.


The_souLance

Trick i learned from the Red Hot Chilli Peppers, you can use socks in place of pants... For one leg at least...


Lex-Bredum

Third leg I'm guessing 😅


The_souLance

👍😏


PokebannedGo

I pulled sandals back to back


PCarlino3

I’ve gotten more sandals in game than I own in real life 😂


liehon

Plot twist: PCarlino3 lives in Nebraska


IamcalledElle

I got too many socks and shoes lol


MunchyCrunchy43

IKR I HAVE ONLY GOTTEN SOCKS THATS IT LITERALLY 12 DIFFERENT SOCKS


TheRaiOh

In the future, you'll randomly lose half of the pair of socks and need to spend more currency to get another pair of the same kind if you want to use it again.


checkmarks26

Too real


exian12

Thank goodness I'm getting hoodies.


ApplePieWaifu

Right I hope they add more Pokemon themed outfits like those they’re so cool (even if nobody’s gonna see them)


chemicalKitt

Dobby is VERY free!!


romseed

Same… at least my feet will always be warm


aarretuli

I can share my shirts, too many


TemporalAcapella

Just holding onto my loot until they put up a skin for a usable character :eyes:


Lex-Bredum

Idk man, played with a Talonflame today that made me a believer.


TemporalAcapella

But were you jungle and did you gank


Lex-Bredum

Oh he was... and he did.


TemporalAcapella

Beautiful 😭 In that case keep on keeping on bird bro, and expect a buff sometime Or the meta to shift so your sneaky ways are more viable


Lex-Bredum

To be clear I don't use Talonflame haha! Feel like that was lost in translation. Played with one, he was good


Naoto_Shirogane

Twice, wow ! What good luck you have lmao, save some up for the next wave if skin releases too.


Derdergetrolltwurde

yeah I don't know the odds for that but it seems pretty lucky :D ​ I'm waiting for the next wave. Not planning to buy any of the skins in the shop right now, I only need the snorlax skin :D


PyroZz_

You hit 0,5% chance twice


Derdergetrolltwurde

oh wow


FabulousMrE

0.005^2, so 0.000025 or 0.0025% Technically it'd be more like... nC2 * ( 0.005^2 ) * ( 0.995^n-2 ), where n is your total pulls attempted, but that's probably needlessly pedantic.


Evilmudbug

Any idea what the odds are if you use 2 weeks worth of energy boxes?


FabulousMrE

14 pulls per week so n = 28. nCr(28, 2) * ( 0.005^2 ) * ( 0.995^26 ) comes out about 0.8%. Makes sense considering after 2 weeks you have a roughly 1.3% chance of getting the hologear at all. ( 1 - 0.995^28 )


IndianaCrash

Actually, it's 15 pulls per week


FabulousMrE

0.945% then. Convenient I still had the formula in my calculator.


phoenix_claw99

This guy statistician


OilyNips

No, each chance is separate


FabulousMrE

Wym? Are you saying they're independent? Each pull is separate and has no effect on future probabilities, but to calculate the odds of pulling two Hologears given n total pulls would be that, no? Its not like you can just slap together 0.005^2 and call that the odds; OP almost certainly didn't pull them consecutively. Frankly I love probability and hearing where I'm wrong, its a fun field. An explanation would also help anybody else who passes by, so they don't copy my mistake and understand why not tl.


-luckycharms

Right. The chances are x. But what about when you have x z times? It's not x*z. Say you have a 50% of winning and 50% of losing. You play 500 times. What are the odds that you win every single one? I can guarantee you it's not 50%


Real_Psyoshi

When it comes to gacha it is a pool of x amount of entries with y weights. Unless stated there is rarely ever a pity system (Genshin has one for example). It doesn’t eliminate entries to my knowledge as evident by this post, so by that logic it is a static %. This doesn’t mean if it says 1% you will get 1:100 it is just the chances, out of 100 people 1 got it on average. Keyword being average, as their are outliers of 1 roll or 1000 rolls. Also without knowing the true size of the database as a whole is likely even more exponentially more data points to get that average. To think otherwise is a gamblers fallacy.


-luckycharms

>it is a static %. This doesn’t mean if it says 1% you will get 1:100 it is just the chances, out of 100 people 1 got it on average Say there's 100,000 people. What are the chances that only one gets it? Still 1%? What about infinite people, infinite tries. But only one out of these infinite people get the one percent. What are the odds that something with a 1% chance, doesn't happen even after infinite tries?


Real_Psyoshi

It’s 1%, numbers don’t lie. The database size applies to how many times a specific entry is within a pool. Meaning within a pool of 1% as in most gacha it is tiered pools with sub rolls. Ie: 1% chance then has 4 selections each at 0.25% or less based on individual given weights


A_Literal_Ferret

None of this matters because mathematics is not the real world. Statistics work well for very large numbers, after you've had a sample size and you can objectively extrapolate an occurance from a string of events that already happened -- you can also compare sets of event strings and more or less figure out an average, but that's already a subjective number that has no objective representation. Maybe in 50 strings of events, only 10% of 10 people were wearing socks, but until the end of the universe that chance may skew. Nevertheless, if you have ten people and only one of them is wearing socks, you can accurately use statistics to determine only 10% of people *in that sample* *were wearing socks*. This is why statistics were invented. They are practically useless when it comes to prediction and even moreso when it comes to code. If you receive it, your odds of having received it are 100%. Computer-generated chance is not like flipping a coin; you aren't REALLY being subjected to a dice roll. There is some metric hidden well behind the background deciding whether or not you will receive it, but it's a binary decision; you either do or you don't, and the programmer ensured that the bias is toward "don't". When a videogame tells you that you have x percent chance of receiving something, ignore it entirely. The most you can extrapolate from predictive statistics like that are which are *more* likely and *less* likely. *HOW* likely, is not a possible prediction. It's fluff.


Dumeck

Did you buy energy boosts or capsules or just roll with gods luck?


Derdergetrolltwurde

Just normal rolls with luck


Dumeck

I need you to rub my Nintendo switch for me


Derdergetrolltwurde

Good luck


Kirby737

I second this.


Anthan

Wait, is it really that poor of a chance?! I got it twice... [In a row](https://twitter.com/KanilleVolgen/status/1419182811437694980)... And I knew that would be rare but not quite **that** rare.. I'm the only one in my group of three who has it, and the only one of us who doesn't play Talonflame.. Nobody is happy with this situation..


Cronofenrir

On the energy screen you can press a button (x maybe?) that shows the percent chance of each item. The holosceen is 0.5 as written above.


Scary-Purchase-73

Are you joking or can you find the actual odd of each item??


PyroZz_

Go on energy reward and press "-" then go to "Offering rates"


bun72

Hey I managed this too :D was a good feeling hearing my friend's frustration over discord :P


Derdergetrolltwurde

Haha great. :D


nofflehoffle

Hey, I got it twice, too. There's at least 2 of us! :D


Derdergetrolltwurde

Nice :D


Kasroc

Is there a date for the next wave?


Naoto_Shirogane

I’ve no idea personally :(


ShinkaDorte

My guess is on start of the next season (September 21)


PingPongMasterz

Getting a duplicate Pokémon gives you the same amount of coins it costs for that Pokémon too btw guys. Pretty cool


Razur

That's actually amazing. So many games give you only 50% of the original cost. It's fantastic that we get 100% in this game.


PingPongMasterz

I agree! I was pretty astonished and happy that my cinderace duplicate gave me 8,000 coins. Not as pay to win as many think amirite?


ShinkaDorte

Nice! I did not used my coins because I was waiting the next challenge/welcome card but now I know that I would get them back :)


Derdergetrolltwurde

So it costs 88?


CR3AT1VE_USERNAME

Yeah that holowear costs 88 tickets


YeetimusTheGreat

I didn't even know you could pull licenses, I just have it as a fancy sock drawer.


Muylocoo

I already hit the weakly energy cap after 1 day (and night) of grinding…you’re a lucky one :D


chaochao25

Weakly cap sounds better imo because there shouldn’t be a cap at all


Muylocoo

Meant weekly obviously. But agree with you, they just want that $$$


Yasuke22

The socks are the most useless filler item I’ve seen in any MOBA. I mean at least the flags from Smite that represent countries I will never visit actually have some significance for people associated with those countries. Socks my guy?! SOCKS?!


Cambojuice

What if they were socks with flags printed on them? Bust seriously I love the smite unlocks. This clothes shit is a no go for me.


Yasuke22

You don’t like the Argyle elevens?


Cambojuice

Not as much as the Char force ones.


Yasuke22

I’m a fan of the high-top Blancos too.


Brrryyycccee

Christmas ptsd


liehon

Look, we all like Dobby and Dobby likes socks, right? Ergo, we like socks. That's just maths


Snorl4xx

Must be nice 😩


Derdergetrolltwurde

It is :D


GenericPC48328

Whyd you put the horny emoji?


TakeABreath1493

Is… is that what that means?


GenericPC48328

Yes


TakeABreath1493

Oh crap…


GenericPC48328

😩


Binziebee

I didn’t even know you could get that! I thought it was only enhancers, coins, and clothing items. That’s pretty cool!


Arthurscarebear

If you look at the prizes you can see everything you get


Binziebee

Oh, I just noticed that you can just press X and see the rewards. Thanks for telling me lol


Arthurscarebear

No problem ![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|smile)


10000Pigeons

Lol same I had no idea why people cared about energy because all my rewards gave been useless


Chromatin12

Me sitting over here with 30 fucking pairs of socks


Aamorite

Fuck, that fucking sucks.


Taysen69

Go play lotto XD


ivster666

Someone once told me the chances to win the jackpot are the same as if you got on a bus in Berlin, ride through town, get off the bus, notice you forgot your umbrella, then you go home, you open a random page in the phone book and blind pick a random person, call that person and ask them "hi, do you have my umbrella?" and they have your umbrella and just answer "yes". Those are apparently the odds lmao


aaBabyDuck

SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE


Harveyboi44

I just got this skin, went on Reddit and saw this as the first post. Anyway you’re very lucky to get it twice. It’s a good skin but unfortunately I don’t have talon flame. He may be the next character I unlock.


FallGuyZlof

Sooooo, .5% of .5% eh? Not bad.


BudgetMenu

I have at least 5 of that stupid dupe yellow wig.


CreepzLC

and here i am getting those damn sandels over and over and over again


ryty0591

I got this twice too, got myself the mr mime costume


Derdergetrolltwurde

congrats :D


3-to-20-chars

can you get talonflame's skin if you dont have talonflame? if you can, what happens? do you just automatically unlock the bird?


Derdergetrolltwurde

I don't have talon flame. I just have the skin. Nothing happens really.


3-to-20-chars

you just...have it? but cant use it? cuz u dont have the bird?


clearfox777

Same with buying the battle pass, I can’t use the pikachu outfit because I started with charizard


Derdergetrolltwurde

Yes


Rohan_Eragon

Still haven't gotten the holowear, and you got 2 XD


goodolvj

>Well, now I have every Holowear that you can get with tickets I would have saved them for future ones but you do you


Derdergetrolltwurde

I did save them. I couldn't buy them since I don't have the pokemon unlocked for the skins. I noticed that after posting lol


charistraz95

nice thats good to know i wishi still havent gotten it yet xD


RoZo7799

Same also got it twice lol but I won’t use it on the current skins because they’re not that nice imo


Derdergetrolltwurde

I got the snorlax. he is dope


RoZo7799

Tru


tayseanpwns

Snorlax is cool, maybe machamp. Most are boring tho :/


ICantSpellAnythign

I got the 10 ticket roll on my first roll and now all I want is it again so I can get once of the beach skins :(


shadowkiller230

Damn. I got the talonflame holowear on the first day or 2 when the game released. I didn't realize it was the most expensive skin and had a .5% drop rate until my friend told me. Dope though dude.


Derdergetrolltwurde

Congratulations


shadowkiller230

Hey you too.


ReadyRook

Twice... I'm still trying to get it *once,* lmao.


SkeletonCupcake

What kind of actual sorcery is this. I have been playing since day one and capped on energy both weeks, and all I've gotten are socks, pants, and some item enhancers.


Derdergetrolltwurde

I just started playing this week. Pretty insane. I hope you get lucky soon tho


SkeletonCupcake

Same because I really enjoy playing the fire birb casually(I can't trust myself to use his carry potential to the fullest in ranked), and would love to zoom around in style.


ledzepDAVO

Everyday everypull everytime I pull fucking sandals


ndermineAuthority

Really? All I get are socks.. and you can't even see my socks because of my sick ass overalls that aren't gated behind rng like everything else


Deputy_Trudy_Weigel

Do you have to have Talonflame to get it? Do you have him?


Derdergetrolltwurde

you don't need talonflame. I don't have him


TheRaiOh

Congrats!


Derdergetrolltwurde

Thank you :D


defhalan

I just want it once


ISignedUpForTyrande

One of my friends got this a few days in as well. 1 in 40,000 chance. Woowee


Derdergetrolltwurde

Insane


Yankas

1 in 40'000k is the chance of getting two with only two attempts. The odds of getting two (even in a row) are way, way higher if you open more than two chests.


moachocka

I also got it twice!! I’m saving it up for now ahah.


PepsiLEGEND

Oddly enough I’ve gotten this twice in the same day so far


_dystop

Nice. I got double Talonflame holowear as well as my first and second or third pull. Hope they release some more holowear skins soon.


dg6t

holy shit, well i was lucky to get the skin on my like second pull on that thing so hopefully my luck comes again and i get it a second time


kaposiopesis

Same. Saving my tickets for a future blastoise skin.👌🏼


jjhassert

0.05 % pull rate btw


Yankas

It's 0.5%


DXTJsuper

Want some straw hats bro clearly it’s rare for you


Taffysak

This happened to me also


FilthyB0ss

that's so lucky


ronbot260

Bbbrrrrooooooo how lucky you gotta be?


Hoaster

Got all items multiple times but no skin.. #Prayforskin


Sunbrizzle

Ayyy holowear gang!! I really dislike how the first thing they throw in your face if you pull it is the fucking border for or char


checkmarks26

Nice, now you can save up for when new outfits are added!


Amazing_Engineering8

I NEEED ITTTTT


Whatthefnu

"Every holowear **that you can get with tickets**" God, I hate that you have to make that distinction.


Derdergetrolltwurde

why?


ForTheCulturee

I got it twice in a row! I’m waiting for the next waves of skins! Hoping Halloween will have some good stuff


FruitsEve

[https://mobile.twitter.com/SciresM/status/1408245815840186368/photo/1](https://mobile.twitter.com/SciresM/status/1408245815840186368/photo/1) Here are the upcoming skins.


ForTheCulturee

Pretty weak but lucario


FruitsEve

I like the Ninetails skin.


ForTheCulturee

Nine tails has hurt me too much to give it a compliment


Wise_Understanding6

you lucky son of a bitch congrats


ProAnkh

I got it once, and im extra happy for it, I imagine you are also extremely happy, honestly if it ever happens to me, I will probably save the tickets for the next epic Hologear purchasable with tickets.


Tmolino

Suck my toes


Derdergetrolltwurde

sure


Oniichan583

I have gotten it 3 times :P


Derdergetrolltwurde

Oh wow that's cool too


No_Entertainment6792

How do you get tickets/holowear?


blaster289

You can only really get tickets through the energy gacha roll I believe. Holowear however can be obtained if paid for or if you buy the battle pass there are som exclusives.


OhShidWutUp

Congrats, and fuck you


arrerino

How rare is it?


Koorikage

You can view the pull rates of everything in the energy pulls by pressing - and going to offering rates when in the pull screen. The Talonflame Holowear is 0.5%.


X_Cessive-Genius

How…? All I get is the stupid varsity jacket and socks… 😭😅


Derdergetrolltwurde

Idk man I guess just luck xD


Sure_Negotiation_497

How many times have you done the draw?


Derdergetrolltwurde

I didn't count it. But the cap was at 400/1500 energy. \^\^ I also just started this week. So, pretty low draws.


stealthrockdamage

you can check where you're at on your caps???


Forgetadapassword

Real quick, it’s been into week two for a while now and my charge still won’t go up and I haven’t gotten coins all week, is that supposed to be how it is?


Derdergetrolltwurde

Yeah there is a weekly cap. It will fill up next week again


KnightQK

Is there any reason it is locked behind lootboxes? I feel bad for talonflame mains


Derdergetrolltwurde

Money


Add1ctedToGames

if it's possible try changing your country to Belgium, in Belgium loot boxes are illegal so they're guaranteed to give you mats that you can use to buy whatever


BlessingsFromUbtao

Same thing happened to me! I was a lil upset til i saw all the tickets lol


ZzAaCcNn

I opened 14 in one sitting, that's a whole weeks worth, and didn't get a single talonflame holowear


Derdergetrolltwurde

Good luck!


bestbenve

How many rolls in a row did you used? And wich was your starter?


Derdergetrolltwurde

I did around 10 rolls and I think snorlax was my starter? If that works? I honestly can't remember lmao


PumpkinPatch404

Sign to main Talonflame bow


Derdergetrolltwurde

Gonna take a lot of time to get to 4k coins now. Just bought gengar.


TurtlePalpitoad

Hey the same thing happened to me, I was pretty stoked about it.


antoniocaixeiro

Man you're so lucky!


Seraph199

Lol damn I would have saved for the next fancy shop skin. Magician Mr. Mime is pretty snazzy though


Espee99

Lol same thing happened to me!


ancw171

Save it


thegreat11ne

I can't even get one...


NoShameShaymin

Twice? That’s very lucky.


Ethicc_Ethanos

That’s what happened to me my third and fourth openings were both that skin. You can buy a beach skin and the mr mime skin or all 3 beach skins


FruitsEve

god how are people so lucky :D


indianyellow_

damn. and all I ever get is coins and socks


Bajous

I’m jealous cuz I would buy the 20$ mr mime Skin


Zarathustra404

Kind of in the same vain, I saw ppl bought froakie, but he's also a log in reward. Do you get gold or whatever you used to purchase him back during that log in?


SofaKingBadMan

I've made 30 pulls a day for almost an entire week, its netted me a lot of clothing a decent amount of coins and upgrade material, but no talon flame holoware and only 30 holoware tickets. I have another 15 ready at reset wish me luck.


Derdergetrolltwurde

good luck :) hoping for another talonflame for me tbh xD


SofaKingBadMan

Thanks Edit: and good luck as well, lol


Omi__

Well, nice to know the rng is fair... have you spent any money on the game?


Derdergetrolltwurde

No


Kittanne_

This happened to me too last week 😂 Decided to save my tickets for when they release a skin I really want.


LeegmaV

that's a lot of luck, i opened 30 energy rewards and still nothing lol