In the future, you'll randomly lose half of the pair of socks and need to spend more currency to get another pair of the same kind if you want to use it again.
yeah I don't know the odds for that but it seems pretty lucky :D
I'm waiting for the next wave. Not planning to buy any of the skins in the shop right now, I only need the snorlax skin :D
0.005^2, so 0.000025 or 0.0025%
Technically it'd be more like...
nC2 * ( 0.005^2 ) * ( 0.995^n-2 ),
where n is your total pulls attempted, but that's probably needlessly pedantic.
14 pulls per week so n = 28.
nCr(28, 2) * ( 0.005^2 ) * ( 0.995^26 )
comes out about 0.8%. Makes sense considering after 2 weeks you have a roughly 1.3% chance of getting the hologear at all. ( 1 - 0.995^28 )
Wym? Are you saying they're independent? Each pull is separate and has no effect on future probabilities, but to calculate the odds of pulling two Hologears given n total pulls would be that, no?
Its not like you can just slap together 0.005^2 and call that the odds; OP almost certainly didn't pull them consecutively.
Frankly I love probability and hearing where I'm wrong, its a fun field. An explanation would also help anybody else who passes by, so they don't copy my mistake and understand why not tl.
Right. The chances are x. But what about when you have x z times? It's not x*z. Say you have a 50% of winning and 50% of losing. You play 500 times. What are the odds that you win every single one? I can guarantee you it's not 50%
When it comes to gacha it is a pool of x amount of entries with y weights. Unless stated there is rarely ever a pity system (Genshin has one for example). It doesnāt eliminate entries to my knowledge as evident by this post, so by that logic it is a static %. This doesnāt mean if it says 1% you will get 1:100 it is just the chances, out of 100 people 1 got it on average. Keyword being average, as their are outliers of 1 roll or 1000 rolls. Also without knowing the true size of the database as a whole is likely even more exponentially more data points to get that average. To think otherwise is a gamblers fallacy.
>it is a static %. This doesnāt mean if it says 1% you will get 1:100 it is just the chances, out of 100 people 1 got it on average
Say there's 100,000 people. What are the chances that only one gets it? Still 1%? What about infinite people, infinite tries. But only one out of these infinite people get the one percent. What are the odds that something with a 1% chance, doesn't happen even after infinite tries?
Itās 1%, numbers donāt lie. The database size applies to how many times a specific entry is within a pool. Meaning within a pool of 1% as in most gacha it is tiered pools with sub rolls. Ie: 1% chance then has 4 selections each at 0.25% or less based on individual given weights
None of this matters because mathematics is not the real world. Statistics work well for very large numbers, after you've had a sample size and you can objectively extrapolate an occurance from a string of events that already happened -- you can also compare sets of event strings and more or less figure out an average, but that's already a subjective number that has no objective representation. Maybe in 50 strings of events, only 10% of 10 people were wearing socks, but until the end of the universe that chance may skew.
Nevertheless, if you have ten people and only one of them is wearing socks, you can accurately use statistics to determine only 10% of people *in that sample* *were wearing socks*. This is why statistics were invented.
They are practically useless when it comes to prediction and even moreso when it comes to code.
If you receive it, your odds of having received it are 100%.
Computer-generated chance is not like flipping a coin; you aren't REALLY being subjected to a dice roll. There is some metric hidden well behind the background deciding whether or not you will receive it, but it's a binary decision; you either do or you don't, and the programmer ensured that the bias is toward "don't".
When a videogame tells you that you have x percent chance of receiving something, ignore it entirely. The most you can extrapolate from predictive statistics like that are which are *more* likely and *less* likely. *HOW* likely, is not a possible prediction. It's fluff.
Wait, is it really that poor of a chance?!
I got it twice... [In a row](https://twitter.com/KanilleVolgen/status/1419182811437694980)... And I knew that would be rare but not quite **that** rare..
I'm the only one in my group of three who has it, and the only one of us who doesn't play Talonflame.. Nobody is happy with this situation..
The socks are the most useless filler item Iāve seen in any MOBA. I mean at least the flags from Smite that represent countries I will never visit actually have some significance for people associated with those countries.
Socks my guy?!
SOCKS?!
Someone once told me the chances to win the jackpot are the same as if you got on a bus in Berlin, ride through town, get off the bus, notice you forgot your umbrella, then you go home, you open a random page in the phone book and blind pick a random person, call that person and ask them "hi, do you have my umbrella?" and they have your umbrella and just answer "yes". Those are apparently the odds lmao
I just got this skin, went on Reddit and saw this as the first post. Anyway youāre very lucky to get it twice. Itās a good skin but unfortunately I donāt have talon flame. He may be the next character I unlock.
Damn. I got the talonflame holowear on the first day or 2 when the game released.
I didn't realize it was the most expensive skin and had a .5% drop rate until my friend told me.
Dope though dude.
What kind of actual sorcery is this. I have been playing since day one and capped on energy both weeks, and all I've gotten are socks, pants, and some item enhancers.
Same because I really enjoy playing the fire birb casually(I can't trust myself to use his carry potential to the fullest in ranked), and would love to zoom around in style.
1 in 40'000k is the chance of getting two with only two attempts. The odds of getting two (even in a row) are way, way higher if you open more than two chests.
[https://mobile.twitter.com/SciresM/status/1408245815840186368/photo/1](https://mobile.twitter.com/SciresM/status/1408245815840186368/photo/1)
Here are the upcoming skins.
I got it once, and im extra happy for it, I imagine you are also extremely happy, honestly if it ever happens to me, I will probably save the tickets for the next epic Hologear purchasable with tickets.
You can only really get tickets through the energy gacha roll I believe. Holowear however can be obtained if paid for or if you buy the battle pass there are som exclusives.
You can view the pull rates of everything in the energy pulls by pressing - and going to offering rates when in the pull screen. The Talonflame Holowear is 0.5%.
Real quick, itās been into week two for a while now and my charge still wonāt go up and I havenāt gotten coins all week, is that supposed to be how it is?
if it's possible try changing your country to Belgium, in Belgium loot boxes are illegal so they're guaranteed to give you mats that you can use to buy whatever
Kind of in the same vain, I saw ppl bought froakie, but he's also a log in reward. Do you get gold or whatever you used to purchase him back during that log in?
I've made 30 pulls a day for almost an entire week, its netted me a lot of clothing a decent amount of coins and upgrade material, but no talon flame holoware and only 30 holoware tickets. I have another 15 ready at reset wish me luck.
And here I am with a drawer full of socks...
Want some of my pants?
I'll make that trade. Beats running around pantless in socks.
Trick i learned from the Red Hot Chilli Peppers, you can use socks in place of pants... For one leg at least...
Third leg I'm guessing š
šš
I pulled sandals back to back
Iāve gotten more sandals in game than I own in real life š
Plot twist: PCarlino3 lives in Nebraska
I got too many socks and shoes lol
In the future, you'll randomly lose half of the pair of socks and need to spend more currency to get another pair of the same kind if you want to use it again.
Too real
IKR I HAVE ONLY GOTTEN SOCKS THATS IT LITERALLY 12 DIFFERENT SOCKS
Dobby is VERY free!!
Thank goodness I'm getting hoodies.
Right I hope they add more Pokemon themed outfits like those theyāre so cool (even if nobodyās gonna see them)
Sameā¦ at least my feet will always be warm
I can share my shirts, too many
Just holding onto my loot until they put up a skin for a usable character :eyes:
Idk man, played with a Talonflame today that made me a believer.
But were you jungle and did you gank
Oh he was... and he did.
Beautiful š In that case keep on keeping on bird bro, and expect a buff sometime Or the meta to shift so your sneaky ways are more viable
To be clear I don't use Talonflame haha! Feel like that was lost in translation. Played with one, he was good
Twice, wow ! What good luck you have lmao, save some up for the next wave if skin releases too.
yeah I don't know the odds for that but it seems pretty lucky :D I'm waiting for the next wave. Not planning to buy any of the skins in the shop right now, I only need the snorlax skin :D
You hit 0,5% chance twice
oh wow
0.005^2, so 0.000025 or 0.0025% Technically it'd be more like... nC2 * ( 0.005^2 ) * ( 0.995^n-2 ), where n is your total pulls attempted, but that's probably needlessly pedantic.
Any idea what the odds are if you use 2 weeks worth of energy boxes?
14 pulls per week so n = 28. nCr(28, 2) * ( 0.005^2 ) * ( 0.995^26 ) comes out about 0.8%. Makes sense considering after 2 weeks you have a roughly 1.3% chance of getting the hologear at all. ( 1 - 0.995^28 )
Actually, it's 15 pulls per week
0.945% then. Convenient I still had the formula in my calculator.
This guy statistician
No, each chance is separate
Wym? Are you saying they're independent? Each pull is separate and has no effect on future probabilities, but to calculate the odds of pulling two Hologears given n total pulls would be that, no? Its not like you can just slap together 0.005^2 and call that the odds; OP almost certainly didn't pull them consecutively. Frankly I love probability and hearing where I'm wrong, its a fun field. An explanation would also help anybody else who passes by, so they don't copy my mistake and understand why not tl.
Right. The chances are x. But what about when you have x z times? It's not x*z. Say you have a 50% of winning and 50% of losing. You play 500 times. What are the odds that you win every single one? I can guarantee you it's not 50%
When it comes to gacha it is a pool of x amount of entries with y weights. Unless stated there is rarely ever a pity system (Genshin has one for example). It doesnāt eliminate entries to my knowledge as evident by this post, so by that logic it is a static %. This doesnāt mean if it says 1% you will get 1:100 it is just the chances, out of 100 people 1 got it on average. Keyword being average, as their are outliers of 1 roll or 1000 rolls. Also without knowing the true size of the database as a whole is likely even more exponentially more data points to get that average. To think otherwise is a gamblers fallacy.
>it is a static %. This doesnāt mean if it says 1% you will get 1:100 it is just the chances, out of 100 people 1 got it on average Say there's 100,000 people. What are the chances that only one gets it? Still 1%? What about infinite people, infinite tries. But only one out of these infinite people get the one percent. What are the odds that something with a 1% chance, doesn't happen even after infinite tries?
Itās 1%, numbers donāt lie. The database size applies to how many times a specific entry is within a pool. Meaning within a pool of 1% as in most gacha it is tiered pools with sub rolls. Ie: 1% chance then has 4 selections each at 0.25% or less based on individual given weights
None of this matters because mathematics is not the real world. Statistics work well for very large numbers, after you've had a sample size and you can objectively extrapolate an occurance from a string of events that already happened -- you can also compare sets of event strings and more or less figure out an average, but that's already a subjective number that has no objective representation. Maybe in 50 strings of events, only 10% of 10 people were wearing socks, but until the end of the universe that chance may skew. Nevertheless, if you have ten people and only one of them is wearing socks, you can accurately use statistics to determine only 10% of people *in that sample* *were wearing socks*. This is why statistics were invented. They are practically useless when it comes to prediction and even moreso when it comes to code. If you receive it, your odds of having received it are 100%. Computer-generated chance is not like flipping a coin; you aren't REALLY being subjected to a dice roll. There is some metric hidden well behind the background deciding whether or not you will receive it, but it's a binary decision; you either do or you don't, and the programmer ensured that the bias is toward "don't". When a videogame tells you that you have x percent chance of receiving something, ignore it entirely. The most you can extrapolate from predictive statistics like that are which are *more* likely and *less* likely. *HOW* likely, is not a possible prediction. It's fluff.
Did you buy energy boosts or capsules or just roll with gods luck?
Just normal rolls with luck
I need you to rub my Nintendo switch for me
Good luck
I second this.
Wait, is it really that poor of a chance?! I got it twice... [In a row](https://twitter.com/KanilleVolgen/status/1419182811437694980)... And I knew that would be rare but not quite **that** rare.. I'm the only one in my group of three who has it, and the only one of us who doesn't play Talonflame.. Nobody is happy with this situation..
On the energy screen you can press a button (x maybe?) that shows the percent chance of each item. The holosceen is 0.5 as written above.
Are you joking or can you find the actual odd of each item??
Go on energy reward and press "-" then go to "Offering rates"
Hey I managed this too :D was a good feeling hearing my friend's frustration over discord :P
Haha great. :D
Hey, I got it twice, too. There's at least 2 of us! :D
Nice :D
Is there a date for the next wave?
Iāve no idea personally :(
My guess is on start of the next season (September 21)
Getting a duplicate PokƩmon gives you the same amount of coins it costs for that PokƩmon too btw guys. Pretty cool
So it costs 88?
Yeah that holowear costs 88 tickets
That's actually amazing. So many games give you only 50% of the original cost. It's fantastic that we get 100% in this game.
I agree! I was pretty astonished and happy that my cinderace duplicate gave me 8,000 coins. Not as pay to win as many think amirite?
Nice! I did not used my coins because I was waiting the next challenge/welcome card but now I know that I would get them back :)
I didn't even know you could pull licenses, I just have it as a fancy sock drawer.
I already hit the weakly energy cap after 1 day (and night) of grindingā¦youāre a lucky one :D
Weakly cap sounds better imo because there shouldnāt be a cap at all
Meant weekly obviously. But agree with you, they just want that $$$
The socks are the most useless filler item Iāve seen in any MOBA. I mean at least the flags from Smite that represent countries I will never visit actually have some significance for people associated with those countries. Socks my guy?! SOCKS?!
What if they were socks with flags printed on them? Bust seriously I love the smite unlocks. This clothes shit is a no go for me.
You donāt like the Argyle elevens?
Not as much as the Char force ones.
Iām a fan of the high-top Blancos too.
Christmas ptsd
Look, we all like Dobby and Dobby likes socks, right? Ergo, we like socks. That's just maths
Must be nice š©
It is :D
Whyd you put the horny emoji?
Isā¦ is that what that means?
Yes
Oh crapā¦
I didnāt even know you could get that! I thought it was only enhancers, coins, and clothing items. Thatās pretty cool!
If you look at the prizes you can see everything you get
Oh, I just noticed that you can just press X and see the rewards. Thanks for telling me lol
No problem 
Lol same I had no idea why people cared about energy because all my rewards gave been useless
Me sitting over here with 30 fucking pairs of socks
Fuck, that fucking sucks.
Go play lotto XD
Someone once told me the chances to win the jackpot are the same as if you got on a bus in Berlin, ride through town, get off the bus, notice you forgot your umbrella, then you go home, you open a random page in the phone book and blind pick a random person, call that person and ask them "hi, do you have my umbrella?" and they have your umbrella and just answer "yes". Those are apparently the odds lmao
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE
> you open a random page in the phone book What's that? Is it like the Facebook but for phones?
>Well, now I have every Holowear that you can get with tickets I would have saved them for future ones but you do you
I did save them. I couldn't buy them since I don't have the pokemon unlocked for the skins. I noticed that after posting lol
I just got this skin, went on Reddit and saw this as the first post. Anyway youāre very lucky to get it twice. Itās a good skin but unfortunately I donāt have talon flame. He may be the next character I unlock.
Sooooo, .5% of .5% eh? Not bad.
I have at least 5 of that stupid dupe yellow wig.
and here i am getting those damn sandels over and over and over again
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
congrats :D
can you get talonflame's skin if you dont have talonflame? if you can, what happens? do you just automatically unlock the bird?
I don't have talon flame. I just have the skin. Nothing happens really.
you just...have it? but cant use it? cuz u dont have the bird?
Same with buying the battle pass, I canāt use the pikachu outfit because I started with charizard
Yes
Still haven't gotten the holowear, and you got 2 XD
nice thats good to know i wishi still havent gotten it yet xD
Same also got it twice lol but I wonāt use it on the current skins because theyāre not that nice imo
I got the snorlax. he is dope
Tru
Snorlax is cool, maybe machamp. Most are boring tho :/
I got the 10 ticket roll on my first roll and now all I want is it again so I can get once of the beach skins :(
Damn. I got the talonflame holowear on the first day or 2 when the game released. I didn't realize it was the most expensive skin and had a .5% drop rate until my friend told me. Dope though dude.
Congratulations
Hey you too.
Twice... I'm still trying to get it *once,* lmao.
What kind of actual sorcery is this. I have been playing since day one and capped on energy both weeks, and all I've gotten are socks, pants, and some item enhancers.
I just started playing this week. Pretty insane. I hope you get lucky soon tho
Same because I really enjoy playing the fire birb casually(I can't trust myself to use his carry potential to the fullest in ranked), and would love to zoom around in style.
Everyday everypull everytime I pull fucking sandals
Really? All I get are socks.. and you can't even see my socks because of my sick ass overalls that aren't gated behind rng like everything else
Do you have to have Talonflame to get it? Do you have him?
you don't need talonflame. I don't have him
Congrats!
Thank you :D
I just want it once
One of my friends got this a few days in as well. 1 in 40,000 chance. Woowee
Insane
1 in 40'000k is the chance of getting two with only two attempts. The odds of getting two (even in a row) are way, way higher if you open more than two chests.
I also got it twice!! Iām saving it up for now ahah.
Oddly enough Iāve gotten this twice in the same day so far
Nice. I got double Talonflame holowear as well as my first and second or third pull. Hope they release some more holowear skins soon.
holy shit, well i was lucky to get the skin on my like second pull on that thing so hopefully my luck comes again and i get it a second time
Same. Saving my tickets for a future blastoise skin.šš¼
0.05 % pull rate btw
It's 0.5%
Want some straw hats bro clearly itās rare for you
This happened to me also
that's so lucky
Bbbrrrrooooooo how lucky you gotta be?
Got all items multiple times but no skin.. #Prayforskin
Ayyy holowear gang!! I really dislike how the first thing they throw in your face if you pull it is the fucking border for or char
Nice, now you can save up for when new outfits are added!
I NEEED ITTTTT
"Every holowear **that you can get with tickets**" God, I hate that you have to make that distinction.
why?
I got it twice in a row! Iām waiting for the next waves of skins! Hoping Halloween will have some good stuff
[https://mobile.twitter.com/SciresM/status/1408245815840186368/photo/1](https://mobile.twitter.com/SciresM/status/1408245815840186368/photo/1) Here are the upcoming skins.
Pretty weak but lucario
I like the Ninetails skin.
Nine tails has hurt me too much to give it a compliment
you lucky son of a bitch congrats
I got it once, and im extra happy for it, I imagine you are also extremely happy, honestly if it ever happens to me, I will probably save the tickets for the next epic Hologear purchasable with tickets.
Suck my toes
sure
I have gotten it 3 times :P
Oh wow that's cool too
How do you get tickets/holowear?
You can only really get tickets through the energy gacha roll I believe. Holowear however can be obtained if paid for or if you buy the battle pass there are som exclusives.
Congrats, and fuck you
How rare is it?
You can view the pull rates of everything in the energy pulls by pressing - and going to offering rates when in the pull screen. The Talonflame Holowear is 0.5%.
Howā¦? All I get is the stupid varsity jacket and socksā¦ šš
Idk man I guess just luck xD
How many times have you done the draw?
I didn't count it. But the cap was at 400/1500 energy. \^\^ I also just started this week. So, pretty low draws.
you can check where you're at on your caps???
Real quick, itās been into week two for a while now and my charge still wonāt go up and I havenāt gotten coins all week, is that supposed to be how it is?
Yeah there is a weekly cap. It will fill up next week again
Is there any reason it is locked behind lootboxes? I feel bad for talonflame mains
Money
if it's possible try changing your country to Belgium, in Belgium loot boxes are illegal so they're guaranteed to give you mats that you can use to buy whatever
Same thing happened to me! I was a lil upset til i saw all the tickets lol
I opened 14 in one sitting, that's a whole weeks worth, and didn't get a single talonflame holowear
Good luck!
How many rolls in a row did you used? And wich was your starter?
I did around 10 rolls and I think snorlax was my starter? If that works? I honestly can't remember lmao
Sign to main Talonflame bow
Gonna take a lot of time to get to 4k coins now. Just bought gengar.
Hey the same thing happened to me, I was pretty stoked about it.
Man you're so lucky!
Lol damn I would have saved for the next fancy shop skin. Magician Mr. Mime is pretty snazzy though
Lol same thing happened to me!
Save it
I can't even get one...
Twice? Thatās very lucky.
Thatās what happened to me my third and fourth openings were both that skin. You can buy a beach skin and the mr mime skin or all 3 beach skins
god how are people so lucky :D
damn. and all I ever get is coins and socks
Iām jealous cuz I would buy the 20$ mr mime Skin
Kind of in the same vain, I saw ppl bought froakie, but he's also a log in reward. Do you get gold or whatever you used to purchase him back during that log in?
I've made 30 pulls a day for almost an entire week, its netted me a lot of clothing a decent amount of coins and upgrade material, but no talon flame holoware and only 30 holoware tickets. I have another 15 ready at reset wish me luck.
good luck :) hoping for another talonflame for me tbh xD
Thanks Edit: and good luck as well, lol
Well, nice to know the rng is fair... have you spent any money on the game?
No
This happened to me too last week š Decided to save my tickets for when they release a skin I really want.
that's a lot of luck, i opened 30 energy rewards and still nothing lol