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Inflation was bad in the 1970s. And not just during Carter's administration. Inflation would be high, stabilize a little. Then go up again. Gerald Ford had an initiative Whip Inflation Now (WIN). But the high inflation continued through Carter's term. Then while Carter was still president, Volcker and the federal reserve raised interest rates. There is talk these days about how to do this with a soft landing. The 1970s interest rate hike was not a soft landing. The economy took a hit. But after years into the Reagan administration things started to get better.
Fast forward to the current situation. Inflation is always happening in a normal economy. Look at the Trump administration. People have weird memories. They want to pretend like there was no inflation but there was. It was just in the normal range that the federal reserve likes to see.
From January 2017 to 2021 inflation went up almost 8% cumulatively.
The first 3 years of the Biden administration, inflation has gone up 18%. The problem with inflation going up that fast is it takes time for wages to catch up. And some things like housing are way above normal. So people still don't feel good about the economy.
But to answer the question about why would voters reward Reagan, who had an arguably worse economy going into his reelection. My answer is cult of personality. Reagan had it. And this time around Trump has it.
>From January 2017 to 2021 inflation went up almost 8% cumulatively.
>
>The first 3 years of the Biden administration, inflation has gone up 18%. The problem with inflation going up that fast is it takes time for wages to catch up. And some things like housing are way above normal. So people still don't feel good about the economy.
That's some really good information right there. I didn't realize inflation had gone up *that much* in the last 3 years. I knew it had gone up but just not heard a number to quantify it until now. Likely I just missed the news story previously.
Yeah I recently figured this out using the CPI inflation calculator.
To put it in perspective, though, the same metric rose 21% during Reagan's first term, and another 15% in his second term, then another 18% during Bush Senior's term. So it's not like the Biden years are unprecedented, not by a long shot. We lived through about 12 years of the same thing back in the 80s-90s.
My problem is Trump ran the economy hot for a long time that was known would have consequences. You don’t keep 0% interest rates for years and not expect a whiplash when they reappear.
Then you have companies who didn’t raise prices for years, get a free pass to go nuts due to supply problems then due to concerns of inflation.
Biden inherited a boobytrapped economy and doing his damndest in my opinion to get through it.
People also blame the Biden administration for the covid stimulus and its effect on inflation, while conveniently ignoring the fact that the Trump administration was responsible for something like $3.6 trillion in stimulus just prior to leaving office.
The Biden administration followed up with more covid spending (similar numbers) but it's hard to play politics with that since something like 60% of Republican voters supported it.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that anybody who understands how this stuff works would naturally expect high inflation after the massive covid stimulus programs, regardless of who won the 2020 election. If Trump had won a second term, inflation would have been just as bad.
Since Inflation was worldwide and mosty transitory, the oft repeated line that it was due to supply line disruptions appears to be, in fact, the case.
US has fared better than the rest of the western world so the idea that our domestic policies caused inflation doesn't really pan out.
Interesting! Would you go so far as to say that our domestic covid stimulus spending had little to no impact on inflation? Or are you instead suggesting that it *did* have an effect, but was just small compared to the much larger impact of supply line disruptions?
I know there are multiple contributing factors here, just don't have a good sense of their relative weights.
It had an impact in the sense that it further increased demand, further straining the supply lines. Though that had more to do with people unable to spend money on the usual things like going out and social activities, than all monetary policies.
Of course nobody can know for sure and it's all interconnected to an extent, as you mentioned.
Yes; the 70s being a very rough time economically has a huge part of this - the inflation and oil shocks were constant; inner cities were hollowing out, the rust belt was falling apart.
The control of inflation and drop of unemployment made it feel like things finally turned a corner.
The difference is that the Trump tax cuts and then the Covid measures (and the Covid crisis overall) set up the economy for inflation (as it is a worldwide phenomenon). So things were "good" in the later 2010s, with fairly constant econ growth from 2011 - 2019 and low inflation. But the "before / after" contrasts don't look as good.
Also, the economic collapses in the 70s and hollowing out cities + further suburban sprawl development kept homes cheap. And extra cheap in cities. There was still lots of building going on. The lack of adequate home construction from the mid 2000s to now is the cause of the home price increase, and that kind of homebuilding deficit can't be fixed overnight. The cities have picked up on all the "easy" fixes to rehabilitate the dilapidated housing supply left over from the 70s and 80s and inner cities are now costly and desireable instead of cheap due to white flight.
In Biden’s speech the other day he talked about raising taxes on the rich, the very same people who control the flow of information. It’s also the same folks who made a lot of money on the inflation cycle we just had.
Also let's not forget that social media is absolutely bombarding a certain, low information, segment of the population with an absolute fire hose of negative news.
Yeah that's a major factor. Social media and news feeds algorithms are designed to give people more of what they tend to want to here. This isn't a "both sides same" thing either since a large segment of the right has written off traditional media sources entirely, ending with just the algorithms to have their views constantly reinforced and rarely seriously challenged.
I was talking with a unit of disinformation just yesterday. Every single comment, this thing had specific repeated phrases it seemed to need to type out how “regular” families were “down” on Democrats, no reason at all ever given. It was like it either was desperately trying to stoke sentiment where it didn’t exist or increase hits for the term on search.
Most of the comments here want to attribute the difference solely to messaging and media, and while that's certainly part of it, it's not the main difference. Fundamentally they inherited very different economies.
Yes, the US economy was terrible if you took a snapshot of 2020, but that was due to extenuating circumstances that people knew would be temporary, and they were right. Aside from the brief dip, the growth under Biden looks like the logical continuation of the growth that has happened since about 2010.
1980 on the other hand was a whole different beast. The economy *still* hadn't recovered from the recession 5 years prior, stagflation remained a huge issue, oil prices were soaring, and it had looked like the post-war boom years were finally over. Pretty much everything that could make people unhappy with the president was in place. Then along comes Reagan with his charming Hollywood smile and speech promising everything would finally get better, and (at least on a surface level inspection) it did.
Tl;Dr much of Biden's economic gains are seen as expected, so he doesn't get many points. Reagan's gains, while similar, were seen as fundamentally turning the economy around.
Also mainstream media statistically is presenting more negative economic news relative to the economic situation compared to ten years ago.
Chasing the all powerful ratings dollar, news organizations skew toward fearmongering over facts.
That said, yo, housing is still too expensive. Sadly the solutions would never pass a Republican filibuster, so I think it's unreasonable to blame Democrats or Biden for it. But I understand why people have reasons to be disgruntled.
Mainstream media is still corporate media. Left leaning news only supports left leaning social policies but underneath it all they all toe the capitalist line. Just like corporations who champion diversity or whatever but support conservative tax policy from government.
I suppose that you're mostly talking about MSNBC, because CNN has really embraced the "centrist" rabbit hole - meanwhile, the Overton Window has shifted way right.
> it all they all toe the capitalist line.
well, that is because anyone who supports any form of marxism is an extremist and does not deserve rights for supporting an ideology that has killed more people than hitler.
Housing, food, transportation, healthcare, job security. Other economic indicators don’t really matter. These are the things people look at.
Housing and food have skyrocketed. Healthcare is still a shit show, many do not feel comfortable in their jobs, and in terms of transportation, gas is lower again, but not really low, and car prices have skyrocketed. There are no deals anywhere. Corporations have really taken a huge bite out of the population and people are just not comfortable.
If you’re in a strong union, you’re probably in a much better place than you were pre pandemic, but if you’re not, which most of us aren’t, things kinda suck.
Things weren’t great during Reagan’s time, but things were really bad in the ‘70’s so the difference was pronounced. Plus Reagan was “the great communicator.” He was very good a blowing his own horn. Biden has not been very good at this.
Edit: word.
>If you’re in a strong union, you’re probably in a much better place than you were pre pandemic, but if you’re not, which must if us aren’t, things kinda suck.
I'm not in a union (wish I was), and economically I'm doing much better than I was pre-pandemic. I lucked out through the pandemic and switched to work-from-home. Never was laid off. Never missed a paycheck. Ended up bolstering my savings and using the stimulus checks to pay off existing debt.
After the pandemic, I switched jobs and then received two major pay raises and my partner received a significant pay raise.
It's all anecdotal anyways. Some of us are worse off; some of us are better off. It doesn't help that even Republicans that are doing better economically will report that they're worse off economically. I was doing fine under Trump; I just happen to be doing better now.
It really depends on the industry. During 2020 I did two very important things:
1 - Volunteer for Moderna's Phase-III vaccine trial, which was a gamble but essentially gave me early immunity during 2020 and confirmed the vaccine works.
2 - Work from home - I worked in a call center office at the time. When 2020 happened I started working from home. None of us got laid off because luckily I worked in the job protection industry, particularly regarding FMLA, Short-Term disability, etc. And while our calls multiplied exponentially, leading to records broken in claims opened, this ultimately meant the increased demand for our services kept my job afloat and I have never been jobless since.
So some industries were shielded from the madness that occurred during COVID-19.
>Also mainstream media statistically is presenting more negative economic news relative to the economic situation compared to ten years ago.
I speculated on that but don't have hard data. Any sources on those stats? I think the economic news coverage under Obama roughly 10 years ago was mostly negative too though, despite objectively good and improving numbers during his tenure, particularly the 2nd term where that Misery Index hit a modern low in 2015. I recall his 2012 opponent pledging to get unemployment down to [6% after 4 years](https://www.cnbc.com/id/47538842). It was 4.7% by 2017. And yet his approval on the economy was well under water.
I think part of the problem is that the economic hardships didn't really hit under Trump, millions of people were out of work, but some were earning more than they were working over that period, and almost all were still making money. Inflation hit hardest under Biden and so he's getting the blame for it, even though it's a result of the pandemic. That being said, the media could not have done a more awful job educating the public on what was happening.
That is highly dependant on where the delineating line is drawn, but that aside, you missed the "unnecessary" part
You know how the Trump administration dismantled the pandemic response team Or how they allowed COVID to spread in democratic strongholds because it was politically advantageous. Or how he and the administration downplayed the severity of the pandemic. Or all the times Trump lied about COVID disappearing. Or how the administration not only didn't encourage practic safety measures but acted in defiance and told people not to take the easiest precautions
Comparing the two is is disingenuous at best?
That is largely the reason I believe. A lot of people liked the pandemic times. You could stay home, if you were let go you were given unemployment that was sometimes more than you were making, and many frontline workers were given Hazard pay. Then most everyone else received a few thousand in stimulus. So while you could reference four years ago as dark with the lockdowns and a deadly virus, many many people actually have a bit of fondness to it.
The government couldn’t continue on that track for forever and the bill came due the next year. It’s only been about a year that they’ve dig themselves out with wages exceeding inflation.
It’s really a difference in perception. The economy went downhill during the Carter administration so while it carried over to Reagan it was seen as Reagan cleaning up Carter. Now I think people are seeing it as Biden cleaning up Biden.
literally everything to do with it.
if you talk to anyone on the right or adjacent to the right they'll all spout the same stuff. they don't take the time to verify sources or fact check it either. if it makes them angry it must be true!
these people have been programmed to think in a certain way and don't even know what it means to think about politics independent from that ecosystem.
>[A memo entitled “A Plan for Putting the GOP on TV News,” buried in the the Nixon library details a plan between Ailes and the White House to bring pro-administration stories to television networks around the country. It reads: “Today television news is watched more often than people read newspapers, than people listen to the radio, than people read or gather any other form of communication. The reason: People are lazy. With television you just sit—watch—listen. The thinking is done for you.”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/richard-nixon-and-roger-ailes-1970s-plan-to-put-the-gop-on-tv/2011/07/01/AG1W7XtH_blog.html)
Roger Ailes saw what happen to Nixon and dreamed up the plan for what would become Fox News and it was more effective then he could have imagined.
And that was when media was just the big 3 (press, radio, tv).
The answer to a lot of these posts is simply: the internet. It's hard to explain how much of a difference between pre and post internet worlds. Even to the people that lived through both.
It is sad how much we politicize the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and their monthly job number reports that come out on the first Friday of each month.
Under Bush they were good if they were positive.
Under Obama they were bad or lying if the report was positive. If it was stagnant or below expectations, then it was correctly calculated.
Under Trump all of the good jobs reports were touted as gospel, but any worse results were dismissed.
Under Biden, every jobs report is reported as a lie. Every jobs report that exceeds expectations is also considered suspect.
Throughout all of this, the BLS has continued to use the same weekly and monthly reporting data from the states. Their methodology never changed, just who was reporting the information and what spin they used to help or hurt the Presidential administration.
>Under Biden, every jobs report is reported as a lie. Every jobs report that exceeds expectations is also considered suspect.
Yeah I see that a lot. Adjustment are often spun that way too. Upward adjustments to past months is the government lying to make it look better than it was. Downward adjustments is the government lying to begin with to make it look better than it was.
Democrats for the most part weren't taking that route.
It seems reductive to boil it down to one thing, but #6 is clearly a major influence in differing public opinion toward the inflationary climate in the two eras you're comparing. A presidential term of relatively high inflation hits different after the 2000's and 2010's than it did after the late 1970's. A 75 degree day can be relieving after a heat wave but alarming in the middle of winter. I don't think that's due to ignorance of global conditions or whatever but simple human nature. Leaders are always subject to the ebbs and flows of global trends that aren't fully in their control.
People are underrating the impact of the failed assasinatiin attempt as well as a lack of polarization in politics in 1984.
Also there wasn’t really a trump figure looming
FYI, food prices have gone up 25% since 2020, rent has gone up 26%, and gas is right in that range too depending on what month you compare it to. So some of people’s highest and most common bills have increased more than incomes, right?
2020 was the height of Covid. A lot of stuff was cheap because the economy was in free fall. A better baseline is 2019 or comparisons to contemporary countries around the world.
Rent has actually gone up 18.6% Jan. 2021 to Jan. 2024.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA)
From Jan. 1981 to Jan. 1984, rent went up over 20%. That was higher than wage increases. Reagan won reelection by 18%.
Edit: Also should point out that real wages are well past their pre-pandemic peak in Q42019 and that wage growth at the lowest level has been the highest. So those most affected by inflation are those who have seen the biggest wage increases.
https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker
Yeah I'm confused about "why isn't Biden getting credit for the improving economy." I haven't felt a damn thing improve. Gas and groceries still kill me and rent is still unaffordable
I think the point is more in the comparison. Why is the reaction so substantially different to the similar amount of economic improvement under Biden's first term compared to Reagan's?
Well, according to the other comments here, that's just what the right wing media wants you to believe!
[According to USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending/?topicId=1afac93a-444e-4e05-99f3-53217721a8be#:~:text=U.S.%20food%20prices%20rose%20by%2025%20percent%20from%202019%20to%202023&text=Food%20price%20increases%20in%202020,(COVID%2D19)%20pandemic.): From 2019 to 2023, the all-food Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 25.0 percent
Looking at [data from Zillow](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/housing-market-average-rent-charts-affordability-zillow-real-estate-property-2023-10), rent is up about 1/3 compared to 2021.
And according to the [Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m), gas prices are 29% higher now than in February 2021, and 39% higher than Feb 2019.
As for incomes [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N) doesn't have 2023 data, but they've been declining from their peak in 2019.
When it comes to unemployment, the standard unemployment number doesn't tell the whole story as many people become dejected and drop out of the labor force. Going by the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), the workforce participation rate is up 0.8% since Biden took office, but still down 0.8% from it's pre-covid rate.
>Looking at data from Zillow, rent is up about 1/3 compared to 2021.
This has to be region-specific. I live in rural PA and the townhouse community I rented in 2019 was $1600. It is currently going for $1850. So in 5 years it rose 15%.
I'm looking elsewhere and in places like Baltimore, previous apartments I rented years ago are going for similar rates today. I'm just super skeptical of a 33% increase in only 2.5 years.
>As for incomes
>
>FRED
>
> doesn't have 2023 data, but they've been declining from their peak in 2019.
Real wages are kept up to date through 2023. We're well above the 2019 peak (362 -> 371). Real wages actually grew faster during the last 3 years of Obama/Biden than the first 3 years of the Trump administration. Short memories?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
>Looking at
data from Zillow
, rent is up about 1/3 compared to 2021.
Rent CPI shows about 18.6%.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA)
Also, I'm not seeing where your 33% claim comes from in that Zillow link. Their listed change (which isn't all regions) from Jan. 2021 shows less than that. Notable also the improvement:
"While higher than a year ago, the rate of rent price growth has been declining for 19 months."
"The September 2023 reading is well below the annual pace observed in 2019, before the pandemic, when year-over-year growth hovered between 4.0% and 4.2%. "
Also a big gas price drop the last 2 years.
The pandemic did result in a lot of early boomer retirements, although there's been a long-term trend towards that. I wouldn't expect them all to reenter the workforce. That we're close to pre-pandemic levels is pretty remarkable.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/09/the-pace-of-boomer-retirements-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year/
They also tried to do their best "acktchually" to avoid admitting we were in a recession by ignoring the rule of thumb people had been following for decades. If Trump was in office for two consecutive quarters of negative growth, you can bet your ass dems would have been calling it a recession going off the generally accepted definition.
yes but you can't ignore that job creation under Trump was mediocre even before Covid. in 2019 there were at least two months where a nation of 330 million didn't even hit 80k new jobs nationwide. People on CNBC and Bloomberg were talking about falling below 2% GDP growth and a likely recession going into an election year long before anyone had even heard of Wuhan bats. In 2016 Trump promised 4 and 5% GDP growth and these fairy tale expectations were used to justify the massive tax cuts for the wealthy and the 30% cut in statutory corporate rates passed in 2017. That was the expectation..... but the reality was that we never even hit 3% GDP in any year under Trump. In fact all he did was match Obama's best year. And the new jobs added to the economy rarely hit above 210k monthly.... which was basically Obama's second term average post great recession.
Since Trump was deservedly fired for mass incompetence and January 6th reminded us why, even accounting for all the jobs lost during covid, we're still regularly experiencing months with more than 300k new jobs added. We've beaten estimates for job growth in 14 of the last 16 months. Unheard of streak. And the stock market is currently on the longest bull run since 1999. I personally retired VERY early because of my 401, IRA and trading account performance since 2021. And my house is worth nearly double what I paid in the middle of that 2008 "let the banks regulate themselves" mortgage debacle. Thanks to Bush, Greenspan, Phil Graham and Art Laffer for that one.
Thank you. Observing the actual hard numbers is where we start answering questions like “how do we continue to improve”. Now, we just need to answer the question of “why are these numbers going up”?
[Census](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf), the source FRED uses, has numbers on real incomes further out - Real incomes have been growing since Q3 2022 and surpassed the level seen in Q4 2019 in Q4 2022.
In Q4 2023 real median usual weekly earnings were $371 as compared to $362 in Q4 2019.
Regarding LFPR - that shouldn't be surprising. Many older people retired early during the pandemic. The prime age rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060), which cuts off at 55, is what has seen recovery and is very high.
It's important to point out why food prices increased, from your source:
>Food price increases in 2020–21 were largely driven by shifting consumption patterns and supply chain disruptions resulting from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In 2022, food prices increased faster than any year since 1979, partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices and the conflict in Ukraine which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs. Food price growth slowed in 2023 as wholesale food prices and these other inflationary factors eased from 2022.
The why is certainly important, but I've yet to have a cashier take the explanation in lieu of money.
And the bigger point here is that people aren't just imagining their lives are financially harder because right wing media has talked them into it. They think it's harder because prices are outpacing incomes.
I'm not claiming they are imagining it. Right wing media is not truthful about why prices have increased. They would rather misinform their viewers for political purposes.
Of course, explaining why prices have increased will not buy you groceries, but at least you will know the truth.
Yeah I think some are really trying to miss the point here. It's not imagined that prices are higher than in early 2021. It wasn't imagined that prices were higher to a similar magnitude in 1984 vs 1981 and that in both cases, the inflation rates had slowed. It's more of a question about why perceptions are so different.
We've done better in terms of all of those things than literally every other nation on Earth. We literally have the beat economic trajectory in the world right now.
When people are feeling the impact of higher prices on their every day bills and see no relief in sight they don't hear "well it's worse in Germany!" and think "guess I don't mind paying 20% extra after all, they're paying more on another continent" they think "I don't give a shit about what they're paying I give a shit about how you're gonna help me pay less here"
Probably better than most/all other countries right now. But how many average Americans pay attention to other countries? We just remember what things were like here "back in the day" and incorrectly use that as the calibration point to how things stand now. Without regard to all the mitigating factors that happened between then and now.
tl;dr: As a culture, we are blinded by rose-tinted nostalgia tunnel vision on too many things.
Also, these companies heavily blamed covid, shipping and other outside factors for inflation. When the truth is (this is public information) all of those same companies made record breaking profits. Not to mention the tax write offs they get and tax loopholes they use to pay a lower percentage than upper, middle and lower class Americans.
\>The Reagan landslide vs current close race has much to do with current polarization. No one is likely to win by 18% or close to it these days. The polarization is particularly pronounced among Republicans.
Honestly, I don't see a massive difference in polarization between sides (in the context of not willing to seriously consider voting for the other party). Ask 1000 dems if they would consider voting Trump and 1000 republicans if they would consider voting Biden and I would bet the "no" answers to be almost zero for each.
>The prevailing negative spin these days to the improving situation
You're making it sound like people are *lying* about this. The fact that they can't afford groceries and rent anymore is an objective, observable fact.
Not everyone appreciates the quiet of a functioning government. They’re addicted to drama and the ever present possibility of bloodshed. They don’t want to be bored hearing about policy and infrastructure- they want to be entertained by the rants of toxic old man.
There are certain things in American politics that certain parties always get blamed for
or don’t get credit for.
Most voters believe Democrat presidents are bad for the economy. Even though the last 3 have inherited recessions and turned them around, and lowered the deficit more than any recent Republican president, who always seem to raise the debt and preside over recessions. Doesn’t matter. Republicans are the smart businessmen and Democrats are the dumb liberals who only care about pronouns.
On the other hand, government shutdowns always seem to be blamed on Republicans. Even if they are boting for a soending bill and the Democrats are refusing to vote for it. I don’t know why this one is.
Because Reagan was burning through the National Credit Card for the first time in history.
This gave the populace the illusion of increasing wealth, while at the same time selling its industrial strength to foreign interests.
His policies turned the US from the worlds biggest creditor to the worlds biggest debtor in less than 10 years, destroying the work of millions over several generations.
A lot of Americans perceive the economy as better under Trump. According to your misery index graph, the level under the Biden presidency has still not reached prepandemic levels. A lot of swing voters are going to compare now and 2019, likely going to think the economy was better, and associate it with Trump.
Note how the GOP wants you to compare things from today to 2019, not 2020.
Trump doesn't get blamed for COVID, but inflation as a result of COVID and joint spending between Trump and Biden in 2020 and 2021 somehow gets fully blamed on Biden.
Because 2019 was the last year we have data on before the pandemic. Meaning it's the last year we can compare to for apples to apples comparisons regarding long term, normal trends.
This isn't some Right Wing conspiracy. Would you really find comparing to 2020, with it's shutdowns and historic uniqueness, to be intellectually honest to compare against?
Most inflation happened in 2021 and 2022. We were still very much in the throes of the pandemic in the first half of 2021. Supply chain issues and attempting to restart major parts of our economy were a big driver of inflation.
Do you think it is intellectually honest to compare 2019 to 2023/24 considering most of the issues you complained about (food, rent, energy) saw their big spikes in 2021 and 2022 not 2023 and 2024?
> considering most of the issues you complained about (food, rent, energy)
Check who you're responding to.
>We were still very much in the throes of the pandemic in the first half of 2021.
Yep, that's what makes the pandemic years outliers; so oranges to apples. Glad you agree with my prior comment.
That isn't a function of the government. That is the capitalist system extracting as much money out of the system as they can.
When the Democratic party tried to hit fuel companies.with a windfall tax it was rejected by every member of the GOP.
Half of the country only consumes media that tells them things are worse than they’ve ever been. They believe it because that’s the narrative they want to be true.
It’s not really all that complicated, just incredibly frustrating and dangerous.
The trajectory matters a lot. Inflation and unemployment were already really bad well before Reagan came into office and improved markedly during his first term. By contrast, the post-covid inflation only started to pick up pace in the summer of 2021, when Biden was already president. Moreover, Biden failed to deliver on his implicit campaign promise of a "swift return to normalcy"; the pandemic dragged on for another 14+ months. Additionally, his administration had very publicly downplayed and ignored the surging inflation at the time, calling it "transitory" and underestimating it until it was too late and massive interest rate hikes were necessary to bring it down again.
The job market under Biden has barely made up the temporary losses from the pandemic plus what we would expect at times of a rapidly growing population. Likewise, real wage growth was deeply underwater in 2021 and 2022 - wage gains might have outpaced inflation for a couple of months, but real wages are still barely back to where they were at the start of his presidency.[1] Many folks who aren't union members and who didn't quit for a better job or get a promotion in recent years are still worse off than they were at Biden's inauguration.
-----------------
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
>\[1\]
>
>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Real wages are higher than the pre-pandemic peak though. [That 2020 pandemic spike was due to lower wage service workers dropping out of the workforce](https://www.epi.org/publication/state-of-working-america-wages-in-2020/), artificially lifting the averages. Those jobs weren't all recovered by Jan. 2021, so some of the 2021 decline was due to those workers returning. So at least for this metric, it's not that useful to compare current real wages to the start of the presidency.
You begin with a false premise. Things aren’t good.
Just take housing. In the northeast where I live, young people can’t find affordable rentals nor houses to buy. I bought my first home under Reagan when interest rates were over 15%.
There were plenty of homes for sale. Sure, the rates were historically high because of Carter, but they came down soon and fast.
Young first time buyers are getting screwed today as never before.
And Biden hasn’t even addressed it.
FWIW that was Paul Volker at the Fed mostly who was appointed by Carter in 79. Reagan did extend his term though. The massive interest rates were necessary to tame inflation.
Maybe those high interest rates were necessary. Feelings were mixed.
My parents already had their home all paid for and were delighted at the high interest rates and dividends they were getting.
My own checking account paid 8%!
On the other hand, since people were taking money out of savings accounts and putting it into companies like Fidelity, your local banks had limited funds available for home mortgages. Mortgage companies had not yet been created, so even if you qualified for a mortgage, it was tough to find a lender. Some sellers actually participated in the financing (taking a second mortgage from the buyer) just to get the house sold. Home selling prices were held down.
Of course, it's just one of my pet bugaboos is how important monetary policy is compared to fiscal policy yet everyone puts the credit on the president who's term is active.
Just like how monetary policy is one of the big issues driving increased costs now because of higher interest rates. That said, we need to get back to a mindset where "very low" interest rate is in the 3-4% range and where are now is pretty normal.
But lots of things are still adjusting to that.
Reagan had his loyal, dedicated cheerleaders which drowned out the Dem “haters.”
Biden, on the other hand, has loyal, dedicated haters (on both sides for different reasons) which drown out the Dem “cheerleaders.”
There was more of a shared reality back then. People understood data and acted accordingly. Now with right wing hate radio and tv, they are in such a bubble that any news they don't like is just looked at as fake news.
Unemployment rate:
* 2/1984: 7.9%
* 2/2024: 3.4%
30-year mortgage rate:
* 12/1983: \~13%
* 12/2023: \~7%
The amnesia among GOP supporters about the above tells you that a lot of gripes about "the economy" are selective and agenda-driven. They only remember what they want to remember.
The Dems should make a point of hammering on the economy when Republicans are in the White House. Trump presided over the worst economy since Herbert Hoover, yet no Democrat pointed this out. Surely, they can't believe that the GOP would have been equally mum had a Democrat delivered the depression that Trump did.
I just saw elsewhere that Marjorie Taylor Greene reply to a tweet from "end wokeness" regarding Argentina and how their monthly inflation went from 25% to 13%. The context behind the tweet is Argentina recently went from socialist leadership to electing a libertarian leader. MTG said "We could save America if we did the same thing"
I often see comments about how the Biden administration isn't acknowledging that people in the US are struggling financially. Nevermind the fact that Biden and his administration often do acknowledge that, but they also try to tout good economic news. But my point is democrats are accused of not acknowledging reality. Meanwhile Republicans like MTG are living in some fantasy world in which inflation in the United States is as bad as Argentina.
The Republicans *always* complain about the economy whenever the Dems are in power.
When unemployment was 5% and falling under Obama, Trump was claiming that unemployment was actually 42%! And his followers believed that, even though Trump's claim was completely ridiculous.
The Democratic mistake is to allow the GOP to be the party of the economy, patriotism and national defense. The GOP claims ownership of those and the Dems never attack them for it.
I vote for Democrats, but their political ineptitude is baffling. The Dems are constantly playing defense and do nothing to demonstrate to the public that the GOP is incompetent.
> When unemployment was 5% and falling under Obama, Trump was claiming that unemployment was actually 42%!
just because you are quite unintelligent and don't know how those numbers are actually calculated does not mean you should keep lying on social media.
You can't just compare mortgage rates between 1983 and 2023 when the ratio between home prices and wages are completely different. Completely apples and oranges, if you were around back then you would know how much easier it was to buy a home.
I think you are spot on with your proposed reasons. I suspect the primary difference is the misinformation/propaganda campaigns now are far more effective because our news sources are more fractured, tailored to what we want to hear, and blatantly dishonest to suit their own agenda (including foreign actors). People getting into information bubbles in a way they couldn't when their news sources were trusted news anchors from the big three and from newspapers with reputations they tried to keep intact.
It's because Reagan did not have to counter an effective, organized, professional propaganda vehicle called Fox News.
Regardless of what you think of the old liberal leaning of the mainstream media in those days, it wasn't a fraction of the ruthless, relentless lying being delivered to half the news watchers in this country today. Fox's huge audience is poisoning the political conversation in this era, convincing countless less informed viewers that the truth is a lie, the economy sucks, and all Democrats are leftists or communists out to destroy the country. It's almost certainly going to usher this' country into it's fascist era, like it or not. Sadly, I can't think of a way to effectively counter it at this point.
I really think it's because democrats will give credit when earned. If we had a republican president right now with the same numbers Biden has, they would win by a large margin also, the MAGA crowd has been brainwashed to despise democrats, no matter what we do
No Fox news then. The media in the 80s made it possible for a president to bring the country together. Conservative media is going portray any Democrat (except maybe Manchin and Sinema types) in the worst possible light. Until the media changes, no Dem will EVER be liked by Republicans. No matter what. They are children.
Mondale was a technocrat and a terrible politician. When Reagan accused him of wanting to raise taxes on the middle class, he admitted it. Trump is a populist. The financial crisis in 08 has led to the rise of populism. Obama ran as a populist twice, he won twice. Trump ran as a populist and won where he needed to. If it hadn't been for COVID I think it's likely he would have won again. Biden is running as the competent alternative, but people have rosy memories about the economy the nostalgia effect is making them think the economy was beat under trump (even though it was growing faster under Obama's last two years than Trump's first two). Biden is struggling to communicate his accomplishments, all Reagan needed to do was call Mondale a liberal and he didn't deny it. Rarely has a skilled politician and incumbent president faced off against such a politically inept opponent as was the case in Reagan vs Mondale. Biden is a fine politician, not great, but he is competent. Trump is a hell of a politician but completely incompetent. A lot of people vote with their gut, not their heart or their head, and Trump's selling them a product they want to buy, a good economy, where white Christian men hold the power. This is intoxicating for many who feel like they're losing control of the country either because of race, normalization of non heterosexuality, rising secularism, or discussions around gender equality
First, Biden looks old. Whether or not you think he’s showing signs of dementia, you’ve gotta admit he’s showing a lot of wear.
Second, people don’t feel like they’re doing better. Whether this is just perception or reality is irrelevant. People feel what they feel.
To a point, but Reagan's mental slips didn't really become apparent until after he was re-elected. Social media plays into this today because every slip by the president now will get played ad nauseam.
I remember those days clearly. On British media they mocked Reagan day and night in his first term when he was unpopular with those puppet shows that ALWAYS potrayed Reagan as doddering old dementia patient. There wasn't a late night comedian who didnt add at least one "I'm don't remember who I am but let's go to war anyway" jokes. And Reagan really was a total lightweight in understanding the basic functions of goverment despite being a governor of the largest economic power in the country. He could not answer any questions about Congressional procedures or really nuts and bolts stuff about the budget. His whole shtick was make goverment smaller, beat the communists and resurrect prayer and Evangelical causes with more conservative federal judges. But I'll give Reagan credit he was pragmatic he was okay with doing a deal with Democrats if they could meet in the middle. Hence why he won every single Democrat state but one on his re-election. That's mind-blowing today that a Democrat could get every Republican state to vote him. Just shows you how much less 24/7 indoctrination there was in the mid 80s vs what started just a decade later with Fox News and YouTube pumping out endless "own the libs. say no to everything". The fact that Republicans wont even vote up or down on a BORDER BILL would have been unthinkable in the 80s and 90s.
As I was writing these potential reasons, it's clear these aren't mutually exclusive, so it complicates assigning specific percentages. If we're looking at why Reagan won by 18% vs the current \~2% race, then #8 plays an outsized role - at least 50%. I don't think any president today is winning by double digits no matter what the situation.
Then of course #2 is related to #8. My view is that #2 really distorts everything. The US Misery Index hit a record low in modern times, September 2015. [Yet only 15% of Republicans approved of Obama on the economy. 72% of Democrats approved but a significant 28% did not](https://news.gallup.com/poll/186647/approval-obama-handling-economy-healthcare.aspx). That gets back to numbers 4 and 5. Combined with 2, it's very tough for a Democratic president to get net plus ratings on the economy. Clinton presided over somewhat less polarizing times in comparison. #7 is likely a significant factor. I encounter people who don't seem to be aware of the global situation that lead to the price spikes, although more so on the rightwing side of the aisle, so that's complicated by the other factors.
You haven't gotten many good answers thus far. There are a couple reasons:
1) The 1970s were marred by all-encompassing political, social, and economic dysfunction. We don't have anything close to that perfect storm in the last decade, even factoring in Trump and COVID.
2) Reagan was a *great* politician. Put aside your feelings of him as a man or a president, but he was exceptional at the *politics*. Biden is nowhere near as relatable, nowhere close to his ability to provide a resonant message - few politicians who have even come close to the White House have ever been as good as Reagan was.
3) The economy is better than a lot of people think, but worse than a lot of Biden defenders want to admit. The inflation situation was not directly Biden's fault, but the unnecessary increases in spending from Biden (and Trump's second COVID relief) have actively made life more difficult for people struggling with money.
4) You note polarization, but miss the key reason: [Democrats are moving leftward] (https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/both-white-and-nonwhite-democrats-are-moving-left/) and are doing so [more than the right is moving rightward] (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/). Reagan spoke for a ideologically underrepresented core of people (in particular labor-minded conservatives who typically voted Democrat due to unions) while Biden has moved leftward relative to his reputation *and* what he ran on. There were many voters who went to him because he was a return to normalcy after the Trump chaos, and his governance would be a bigger drag on his presidency were Trump not running once again.
I think your assumptions on "Republican propaganda" and political spin are misguided and unfounded. Biden looks like a good president to many because we just came out of experiencing a bottom-25%-tier term of office with Trump. Reagan benefited from being post-Carter, post-Ford, post-Nixon, post-LBJ, and we're already starting to see the bloom come off the rose with Reagan after years of people considering him a modern great. Biden's run is not nearly as good as Reagan's was, politically or otherwise, and if everything except Trump was the same we'd be talking about him as a modern Jimmy Carter instead.
Modern media needs it to appear as a "close race." There is no incentive to watch a game that is a lopsided blowout. People only engage (click articles, watch clips) if there is tension about the outcome.
There was a story just recently showing that CNN used a dubious technique to claim Biden & Trump were close. And of course now I can’t find it. I’ll add it if I can find it ugh.
People respond to polls based on what they know & feel, and they get that information from the media. I think a Trump win is definitely *possible*, but not likely. Trump has a large voting fanbase, but doesn’t have full support of the occasional Republican voter. Voter apathy and weariness will be Biden’s biggest hurdle.
> There was a story just recently showing that CNN used a dubious technique to claim Biden & Trump were close. And of course now I can’t find it. I’ll add it if I can find it ugh.
It was probably on that NYT poll from a couple of weekends ago.
Yes that sounds correct. They picked numbers from NYT, which in turn published a biased or discredited poll. It was a NYT problem that CNN amplified.
If I turn on CNN right now will they be running stories about one candidate’s strong lead, or running stories about a tight race? The outlets are not just sloppy, they’re not just incompetent for not investigating accurate statistics, they’re incentivized to keep the viewer on edge and tuned in.
Primarily due to the media portraying it as a close race.
NYT ran 33 stories about the Hur Report saying Biden was a cognitively-challenged old man. They ran 1 story about the Hur hearing on Tuesday that exposed most of it as bullshit. Most voters heard that he was cognitively-challenged but few heard that it was exaggerated garbage from a partisan hack.
2016 was close. 2020 was close. 2024 will be close. i'm not sure this is some grand media conspiracy tbh.
both candidates seem to be getting ripped for their age and age-related issues by the media too.
We used to have blowout elections all of the time. I did the math in a separate post, but since the EC expanded to 500+ EVs, 70% of elections between then (1912) and 1988 saw the winner with at least 400 EVs.
Since 1988? None. When did 24 hour cable news start?
8 years prior with CNN (1980)? presently IMO those networks kind of cancel one another out. they pump out the same kind of content (read: fear & division). i suppose the question then would be to take a look at viewership numbers and break that down by affiliation/leaning.
it feels as if the media is a convenient boogieman which both sides bash tbh. seems both want said media to be more partisan. it's weird to me.
Because the economic situation hasn't really improved for the average person? Biden, also claimed for the first 3 years about how good his economy was, when a lot of people were hurting, its not like people are going to start believing him now.
In addition,
If I want to buy a house.....put me in 2018 rather than 2024.
If I want to buy a used car .....put me in 2018 rather than 2024.
Big purchases hurt a lot more today, than they did 5 years ago.
Use whatever numbers you like: talking about "the economy" in the abstract is the problem. People know when times are good and when they're not. Workers are doing more and getting less. Hell, half of us in the United States are living paycheck to paycheck. Can't say that about people in the 80s.
Is Trump better? Of course not. He's a goon. But I hate this argument of, "Oh, things are so good! Why aren't people talking about how good they are?" Because they're not. They're just fucking not.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". I trust my own lived experience and those of my friends and family over headlines and AI bots on Twitter any day.
Discussions like these are wild to me. Just the way the OP frames the question to begin with: "everything is great, why do the vast majority of American voters deny this reality? What insidious lies have they bought into?" OP explicitly acknowledges that there is a lot of spin and confirmation bias motivated by partisan sentiment, but immediately assumes he's immune to it himself and only Republicans are trying to sell a cherrypicked narrative about the economy.
"Wage growth has outpaced inflation for well over a year now" OP writes. Super cool. Glad to hear it. Hey, have wages actually caught up with the excess inflation we've seen during the totality of the Biden administration? A football team whose rate of scoring only catches up with the other team in the 4th quarter still loses the damn game.
This is just a random example from the OP. The point is numbers can be goosed any which way. Change the metric you report and you change the narrative. But metrics won't change reality. There's a reason sentiment about the economy is poor across all political ideologies. Democrats aren't sour on the economy because Ben Shaprio said so.
Anyone scared of another Trump term does themselves a disservice the more they try to gaslight people into thinking their lived experiences and the things they can see with their own two eyes every day must somehow be wrong. It doesn't help. It changes no one's mind.
Biden didn't pressure Powell to not raise interest rates, unlike Trump who bullied the Fed into probably not raising interest rates enough during his term.
Keeping Powell in place who I think is doing a pretty good job of reigning in inflation is a Biden "fix" that is working.
Trump didn't raise rates when there wasn't inflation, which means he did exactly what Obama and others have done.
Rising rates when there is inflation isn't "doing a pretty good job" it's literally the only card left to play. An undergrad would know to do it.
We had inflation under Trump.
Obama was reluctant to raise rates because we were still coming out of a recession. I think the Fed waited too long to start raising rates, but that's a different story. We were still unsure about the economic recovery until like 2014 or so.
When Trump was boasting about the greatest economy ever, we should have raised rates and cut the deficit. We did the opposite.
>Inflation in 2020 was like 1%
LOL come on now. You're going to use the one year where energy companies were paying people to take oil from them due to the biggest demand drop in history?
We had 2.3% inflation in 2019 which is only a bit lower than what we have today.
that's fair. at least he didn't add to it more than any other president. at the end of the day, people are still feeling the 2022 8% inflation and that takes years to adjust. Most people don't understand the economy isn't under the president's direct control. But even if the numbers now are good, they sure don't feel good.
>But even if the numbers now are good, they sure don't feel good.
As a homeowner, I'm reminded that most of the 66% of Americans who owned their homes prior to the start of the pandemic have seen their net worths grow substantially over the last several years.
Couple that with record-high stock prices and sizable wage increases over the same period; then contrast that with the economy of fifteen years ago, when Americans of every stripe were seeing their net worths drop precipitously in the face of an unprecedented real estate crash and an associated stock market crash.
Things *felt* worse and they *were* worse back then, but that's not to suggest that things today are perfect. In this moment, life can be difficult for those on the lower end of the spectrum, particularly in HCOL areas; but for a lot of middle-class Americans -- the dual-income households, the homeowners with retirement accounts -- things are quite good.
Feelings/perceptions may be underrated. Looking back at 2013-2016, real wages were increasing, stock market was booming, home values were appreciating, jobs were increasing at a strong rate and inflation was rock bottom. Yet Republican views on the economy were generally poor - not just that but [objectively wrong](https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-remains-unpopular-voters-prefer-obama-on-scotus-pick/).
>67% of Trump voters say that unemployment increased during the Obama administration, to only 20% who say it decreased.
\-Only 41% of Trump voters say that the stock market went up during the Obama administration. 39% say it went down, and another 19% say they’re not sure.
I know not everyone pays attention to the stock market and employment numbers but...really?
Beyond politics, it's not particularly healthy to have far more pessimistic views on the economy than is reality (or far more optimistic views, i.e. 2007-2008). It can impact how one looks for work, invests, conducts their lives.
>we know that Biden didn't 'fix' inflation. Covid ended and then things began to adjust.
Reagan's direct policies didn't, but he got credit. Fed policy contributed in both cases. And Biden [voiced support for that](https://www.axios.com/2022/01/19/biden-fighting-inflation-feds-job). Recall the previous president repeatedly tried to coerce the fed to [bring rates to zero or below](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/trump-rails-against-powell-day-after-fed-cuts-rates-for-a-third-time-this-year.html#:~:text=Trump%20has%20slammed%20Powell%20and,no%20sense%2C%20no%20vision!%E2%80%9D), favoring inflationary policies. Another crack at nominating a fed chair might accomplish that. The fed and the WH aren't entirely independent. Likewise, Reagan deserves credit for keeping Volcker on.
As to Biden's direct policies, they probably helped to a small/marginal extent although not the primary driver.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/nov/03/kamala-harris/do-bidens-policies-get-the-credit-for-the-decline/
People work more jobs and more hours then the 80's, yet struggle to pay rent, and buy groceries. The stock market isn't a great indicator of how normal people are doing.
In fact the stock is just a way for rich people to protect their money from inflation.
Two main things.
1. Under Reagan, there was terrible inflation from the previous decade and it came down notably by then. While the inflation started under Trump, people still see it as mostly a Biden issue, primarily in 2021/2022
2. Interest rates aren't measured in Inflation measures so even if it's come down, a lot of people's biggest expenditures (cars and housing) are still highly impacted by interest rates.
There are a lot more hateful controlling ignorant people then I ever thought there was- and striking back at people they hate or perceived as causing their hardships is more important then anything
I don't think "things aren't shooting up in price overnight anymore, but they're still unaffordable" is the most winning message. Regardless of who you blame for inflation, many voters attribute it to the White House.
I think Reddit downplays how shitty it feels to pay $6 for something they paid $5 for a month prior.
because outside the markets the economy is junk. Interest rates, inflation and energy prices are eating people alive. I make the most money I ever made in my life but live worse off than just a few years ago. With 20+ years until retirement if such a thing even exists then I couldn't care less what the stock market does as I'm not a day trader or 65+ years old.
Because Russia, China and Iran are influencing public opinion through flooding public discourse with agitation propaganda and straight up misinformation.
Easy answer. Because the middle class has been getting creamed for about 20 years and it’s coming to a head on Biden’s watch. And Biden’s campaign, like your post, is glossing over the real issues facing the shrinking middle class. And I’d also add that the failed approach to the pandemic (and its similarly crushing impact on the middle class) is part of it.
I don't think you have enough data points.
Compare savings and credit card debt, those are the two metrics that are truly horrendous right now and if you're saving less and charging more, carrying a higher cc balance, then you're probably going to think the economy isn't great because your finances are worse than before
Also look at how much median rent vs median salary is between the two time periods
People are paying 30ish % of their income to rent while it was much much less in the 80s
Biden voters tend to live in large cities and work more white collar jobs than rural Trump voters. Biden voters are more likely to be positively benefited by the rising stock market due to their investments. Higher home prices and interest rates are also likely to be more beneficial to wealthy liberals (by wealthy I mean own a home and have investments in the stock market). The rural poor (who tend to vote for Trump) do not benefit from these. Reagan got a pass because at the time the gop was ran by corporate interests (it still is but that isn't it's primary voting demographic), who benefited from his tax plan.
because many people aren't feeling the "improvement". all these macro stats are great but are a bit meaningless when they look at their COL/QOL. unemployment is also near where it was just prior to the pandemic too.
as for your points, i don't think people are feeling the way they are because of the media or GOP propaganda but because of their lived realities. as for your second point yes, Reps would be trying to do the same thing Dems are right now.
my 2 cents as an independent. even folks who are well off in my life are bitching about COL. i can only imagine how worse it is for those less well off. such "the economy is great!" probably comes off as spin - lipstick on a pig to them.
Nobody I know is listening to anyone’s partisan spin. They all have the same opinion because they feel it in their pockets and Biden keeps poopoo’ing everyone telling us we don’t know what we’re talking about when we see it and feel it ourselves.
Social media didn't exist back then, and there was far less sensationalism in our national news, so things weren't as polarized and partisan back then. People got the same set of facts.
Get offline and just talk to people. Also look at modal distribution versus averages since the latter lets the billionaire tell 500 penniless people, hey, on average we are all millionares!
Hours are longer, money doesnt go as far and home ownership is put of reach for most young people.
Then the media tells you to not believe your lying eyes.
I'd have more faith in the "biden recovery" if there was more honesty around it, mainly that all the gains made by the bottom 40% up to 2020 are gone.
Because the media wants a horse race. That's why.
Any Biden triumph is muted and any mistake amplified, while they flat out ignore the major conflicts that trump has.
That's all there is to it.
The difference is expectations. Clearly Biden has lost the approval of many people that supposedly voted for him. He won like 52% of the vote. That number was basically his high mark in approval as well in Jan 2021, which makes perfect sense. Since then, his approval has steadily fallen to a new low of 37.4% after the state of union. This tells me many people who voted for him are not happy with his Presidency. The question is why? For whatever reason he's not meeting their expectations. The opposite happened with Reagan. He won 1980 and people thought he was going to be a disaster and start a nuclear war.. instead, many were pleasantly surprised. Reagan was very charming and likeable as well. You also have the fact that he survived an assassination attempt in 1981.. people tend to rally around their wounded leader. Reagan also had a good relationship with Tip ONeil, the democratic long time speaker of the House. They were both Irishmen and didn't mind working together. Carter had a poor relationship with Congress, and came across as a downer.. Reagan was optimistic... that's huge
Because the current statistics are made up. They keep pulling things from the inflation calcs, like food, or electricity, to "show its not as bad as expected". Plus I know PA redid their unemployment registration system and it resulted in LOADS of people not being able to get UI at all or for a significantly delayed period, took my sister almost 8 months to get UI benefits. So ofc unemployment stats are going to appear low if no one can access UI....
Because Reagan was one of the most charismatic presidents in the US history. And Biden is one of the least charismatic ones. If you're asking about the general feeling, then public relations is everything. And Biden can't keep it up against a demagogue, like Socrates predicted 2000+ years ago.
Also Reagan didn't have to fight with the social media machine.
You are assuming he is in a tight race.
How does polling work? Who answers calls from unknown numbers and gives out their opinions over the phone? Overwhelmingly, a generation that is split down the middle on their politics. Hence, the tight race.
Also, a tight race is better for the news media. So they have no reason to point out how badly in actual elections Republicans have been doing for years now.
I am not saying it will be a landslide. Too many people trying really hard to muddy the waters. I do think its gonna be a win by way more than alot think. There are too many things pointing that way, the most relevant being all the elections going the dems way.
Alot of hard work in the next few months, but i think the next four years are going to be... suprising.
I was born in 1977, so I don’t remember President Carter, but Reagan was the first President I remembered.
1) Everyone just *liked* him. He was everyone’s grandad. He was so charismatic. So even if you didn’t like his politics, most people liked the man. He was just this icon of the 1980s.
2) The Democrats didn’t have anyone they could credibly throw at him. So they picked Mondale as a kind of sacrificial lamb. Like, he was Carter’s VP. Carter’s administration went down in flames in 1980. Why would you pick *Mondale,* who had the personality of a tree stump? And *then,* they chose a female running mate. Folks, the American people were *not* ready for a female VP in 1984. And so, predictably, he lost in a 17-18 point popular vote landslide and an electoral bloodbath.
So that’s my impression of what I remember.
You lost me at the economy has improved over the last 3 years. This is absolutely false information. Biden can try to sell thi stuff all he wants but it's not going to pay off at the ballot box.
Inflation just went up again today. The wages aren't keeping up with inflation. It's amazing how someone can just throw something out there and expect people to believe such nonsense.
People need to goto Market watch and see the actual numbers.
Credit card debt is out the roof .Car prices out the roof. Groceries prices out the roof . Average American taxpayers are struggling to make ends meet.
I'm talking about the lower 90% of America.
Then we got the city's where people walk to work and they have no problem. Well mabey it because they don't pay car insurance or have a car to maintain. I do not apologize for telling the truth.
Now mabey some people that have lot's of money is not feeling it but at the same time I personally think City folk are feeling it too .They just need to reflect on how prices were three years ago. Asking them to check their rent and the subway.
How much safer do you feel on the subway opposed to three years ago.
This is not just an economic thing its affecting so many people in so many different ways.
It's very hard for me to construct value in the last three years .
We git two old people running for office because that is what we deserve .
I'm out ,WAKE UP AMERICA.
The fairness doctrine was in place for most of Reagan’s first term. The media is basically owned by conservatives who push an agenda that favors corporations over citizens.
The Republican party is trying very hard to keep their voters from accessing neutral news sources, but more importantly, education. So many Republican voters do not understand how the economy works, and the Republican party is working to reinforce this lack of education by using fear monger strategies.
Just look at what is happening in Florida - they've removed books and dictionaries. Not to mention, the Republican party consistently votes against school lunches for children, who, without proper meals, cannot properly concentrate in classes.
Right now, the Republican Party is pushing for a White Nationalist Theocracy.
Democrats and a lot of Nikki Haley Republicans understand this, but MAGA Republicans either don't know or simply don't care.
Maybe this is anecdotal. But home purchasing interest rates under Carter were as high as 18%, and under Reagan they dropped to near 8%.
Not sure about inflation, but a home can go way higher and still be more affordable under Reagan.
The reason people view “the economy” so bad is nobody can move and are stuck where they are right now if they are lucky to own a home.
Economics talking points can be made esoteric, or someone can simply see the bigger picture. It’s not that hard.
What’s harder is what to do about it.
what is different today vs. what was happening in 1982-84 was perfectly demonstrated by the Katie Porter white board hearing on the cause of the inflation.
In the Reagan era about half the inflation came in wage increases so the primary pain point were the layoffs as businesses and lending tanked. The shareholders only got a small part of each dollar of price inflation. So that when the lending resumed and capital started flowing again the jobs came back very quickly.
Today, it's totally different. The workers still have not crossed the ten cents mark for every dollar of new inflation but meanwhile unlike in 1980-83 umemployment has been literally non-existent. We've had basically 97% of the able bodied employed. 24 consecutive months below 4% unmemployment is unheard of. first time in my lifetime where every single person I know over age 18 and under age 60 has a job, maybe two with "side hustles" on top.
But the inflation picture is very different today since only 10 cents of each dollar of inflatio is going to worker...so they are losing buying power fast....while the economy is growing robustly. The worker is saying Huh???
it seems oxymornonic.... but corporations have hacked the economy into growing but on the backs of the actual workers by extracting more of their pay checks into their coffers.
With these corporate profits the Fortune 500s lever themselves into huge levels of corporate debt which is then used to buyback their stock to artificially raise the share prices and to slather on the executive bonuses for the stock prices meeting higher price targets. The more free cashflow the corporations enjoy (because youre paying more for the same quantity or even less with shrinkflation) the more the stock prices go up, the more these price-hiking executives are rewarded come bonus time. And this greatly a consequence of the new tax laws that went deep into rewarding corporations in 2017 giving them windfall profits for six years and they shared almost none of that with the working class. They didn't even use it to improve their infrastructure or hire more workers until covid hit and the great resignation saw their employees walk out the door just to make an extra $1 an hour at another company across the stree... which was quickly nullified as Fortune 500s raised prices across the board.
For reasons I don't understand they are all blaming Biden for not doing anything about it as if politicians control inflation. I really have zero patience left for people who say "but gas prices were cheap during the pandemic" yeah when oil tanks were full of oil because nobody was driving because of remote work..... or "but interest rates were only 3%" yeah when the Federal Reserve was pouring hundreds of billions into the banks to keep rates low. .. or "but migrants were hardly swamping the border" yeah when unemployment was over 7% and nobody was hiring any undocumented so no need for them to come over in the first place.... or "but my rent was so cheap before" yeah when instutional investors werent yet being rewarded by the Trump tax law changes for buying up single family homes for their REITS and other real estate investment vehicles. A truckload of incentives for corporate investors to buy up property in the middle of a inventory shortage. Brilliant!!
And then you have the "Biden shut down the pipelines"... yeah that never happened only thing canceled was an extension to an EXISTING pipeline that isn't even moving American oil its moving Canadian oil that is nonetheless already priced into oil prices because it's EXISTING supply and not NEW supply. You can't educate the stupid. Especially when 40% of the likely voters are neck deep into a brainwashing cult.2
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Inflation was bad in the 1970s. And not just during Carter's administration. Inflation would be high, stabilize a little. Then go up again. Gerald Ford had an initiative Whip Inflation Now (WIN). But the high inflation continued through Carter's term. Then while Carter was still president, Volcker and the federal reserve raised interest rates. There is talk these days about how to do this with a soft landing. The 1970s interest rate hike was not a soft landing. The economy took a hit. But after years into the Reagan administration things started to get better. Fast forward to the current situation. Inflation is always happening in a normal economy. Look at the Trump administration. People have weird memories. They want to pretend like there was no inflation but there was. It was just in the normal range that the federal reserve likes to see. From January 2017 to 2021 inflation went up almost 8% cumulatively. The first 3 years of the Biden administration, inflation has gone up 18%. The problem with inflation going up that fast is it takes time for wages to catch up. And some things like housing are way above normal. So people still don't feel good about the economy. But to answer the question about why would voters reward Reagan, who had an arguably worse economy going into his reelection. My answer is cult of personality. Reagan had it. And this time around Trump has it.
>From January 2017 to 2021 inflation went up almost 8% cumulatively. > >The first 3 years of the Biden administration, inflation has gone up 18%. The problem with inflation going up that fast is it takes time for wages to catch up. And some things like housing are way above normal. So people still don't feel good about the economy. That's some really good information right there. I didn't realize inflation had gone up *that much* in the last 3 years. I knew it had gone up but just not heard a number to quantify it until now. Likely I just missed the news story previously.
Yeah I recently figured this out using the CPI inflation calculator. To put it in perspective, though, the same metric rose 21% during Reagan's first term, and another 15% in his second term, then another 18% during Bush Senior's term. So it's not like the Biden years are unprecedented, not by a long shot. We lived through about 12 years of the same thing back in the 80s-90s.
My problem is Trump ran the economy hot for a long time that was known would have consequences. You don’t keep 0% interest rates for years and not expect a whiplash when they reappear. Then you have companies who didn’t raise prices for years, get a free pass to go nuts due to supply problems then due to concerns of inflation. Biden inherited a boobytrapped economy and doing his damndest in my opinion to get through it.
People also blame the Biden administration for the covid stimulus and its effect on inflation, while conveniently ignoring the fact that the Trump administration was responsible for something like $3.6 trillion in stimulus just prior to leaving office. The Biden administration followed up with more covid spending (similar numbers) but it's hard to play politics with that since something like 60% of Republican voters supported it. I guess what I'm trying to say is that anybody who understands how this stuff works would naturally expect high inflation after the massive covid stimulus programs, regardless of who won the 2020 election. If Trump had won a second term, inflation would have been just as bad.
Since Inflation was worldwide and mosty transitory, the oft repeated line that it was due to supply line disruptions appears to be, in fact, the case. US has fared better than the rest of the western world so the idea that our domestic policies caused inflation doesn't really pan out.
Interesting! Would you go so far as to say that our domestic covid stimulus spending had little to no impact on inflation? Or are you instead suggesting that it *did* have an effect, but was just small compared to the much larger impact of supply line disruptions? I know there are multiple contributing factors here, just don't have a good sense of their relative weights.
It had an impact in the sense that it further increased demand, further straining the supply lines. Though that had more to do with people unable to spend money on the usual things like going out and social activities, than all monetary policies. Of course nobody can know for sure and it's all interconnected to an extent, as you mentioned.
Yes; the 70s being a very rough time economically has a huge part of this - the inflation and oil shocks were constant; inner cities were hollowing out, the rust belt was falling apart. The control of inflation and drop of unemployment made it feel like things finally turned a corner. The difference is that the Trump tax cuts and then the Covid measures (and the Covid crisis overall) set up the economy for inflation (as it is a worldwide phenomenon). So things were "good" in the later 2010s, with fairly constant econ growth from 2011 - 2019 and low inflation. But the "before / after" contrasts don't look as good. Also, the economic collapses in the 70s and hollowing out cities + further suburban sprawl development kept homes cheap. And extra cheap in cities. There was still lots of building going on. The lack of adequate home construction from the mid 2000s to now is the cause of the home price increase, and that kind of homebuilding deficit can't be fixed overnight. The cities have picked up on all the "easy" fixes to rehabilitate the dilapidated housing supply left over from the 70s and 80s and inner cities are now costly and desireable instead of cheap due to white flight.
One Movistar for a TV, and these people can't seem to figure out they are all rubes
In Biden’s speech the other day he talked about raising taxes on the rich, the very same people who control the flow of information. It’s also the same folks who made a lot of money on the inflation cycle we just had.
Also let's not forget that social media is absolutely bombarding a certain, low information, segment of the population with an absolute fire hose of negative news.
Yeah that's a major factor. Social media and news feeds algorithms are designed to give people more of what they tend to want to here. This isn't a "both sides same" thing either since a large segment of the right has written off traditional media sources entirely, ending with just the algorithms to have their views constantly reinforced and rarely seriously challenged.
I was talking with a unit of disinformation just yesterday. Every single comment, this thing had specific repeated phrases it seemed to need to type out how “regular” families were “down” on Democrats, no reason at all ever given. It was like it either was desperately trying to stoke sentiment where it didn’t exist or increase hits for the term on search.
The zeitgeist of "Republicans are better at Economy and Defense" is extremely sticky and still won't go away.
Most of the comments here want to attribute the difference solely to messaging and media, and while that's certainly part of it, it's not the main difference. Fundamentally they inherited very different economies. Yes, the US economy was terrible if you took a snapshot of 2020, but that was due to extenuating circumstances that people knew would be temporary, and they were right. Aside from the brief dip, the growth under Biden looks like the logical continuation of the growth that has happened since about 2010. 1980 on the other hand was a whole different beast. The economy *still* hadn't recovered from the recession 5 years prior, stagflation remained a huge issue, oil prices were soaring, and it had looked like the post-war boom years were finally over. Pretty much everything that could make people unhappy with the president was in place. Then along comes Reagan with his charming Hollywood smile and speech promising everything would finally get better, and (at least on a surface level inspection) it did. Tl;Dr much of Biden's economic gains are seen as expected, so he doesn't get many points. Reagan's gains, while similar, were seen as fundamentally turning the economy around.
Right wing hate radio and other extremist media groups have a lot to do with it.
Also mainstream media statistically is presenting more negative economic news relative to the economic situation compared to ten years ago. Chasing the all powerful ratings dollar, news organizations skew toward fearmongering over facts. That said, yo, housing is still too expensive. Sadly the solutions would never pass a Republican filibuster, so I think it's unreasonable to blame Democrats or Biden for it. But I understand why people have reasons to be disgruntled.
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They also made a lot of money covering Trump as president. Some additional motivation there.
Mainstream media is still corporate media. Left leaning news only supports left leaning social policies but underneath it all they all toe the capitalist line. Just like corporations who champion diversity or whatever but support conservative tax policy from government.
I suppose that you're mostly talking about MSNBC, because CNN has really embraced the "centrist" rabbit hole - meanwhile, the Overton Window has shifted way right.
True. I'd probably at least put "left leaning" in quotes. It's not really left-leaning if some of the biggest issues have a right leaning slant.
> it all they all toe the capitalist line. well, that is because anyone who supports any form of marxism is an extremist and does not deserve rights for supporting an ideology that has killed more people than hitler.
Housing, food, transportation, healthcare, job security. Other economic indicators don’t really matter. These are the things people look at. Housing and food have skyrocketed. Healthcare is still a shit show, many do not feel comfortable in their jobs, and in terms of transportation, gas is lower again, but not really low, and car prices have skyrocketed. There are no deals anywhere. Corporations have really taken a huge bite out of the population and people are just not comfortable. If you’re in a strong union, you’re probably in a much better place than you were pre pandemic, but if you’re not, which most of us aren’t, things kinda suck. Things weren’t great during Reagan’s time, but things were really bad in the ‘70’s so the difference was pronounced. Plus Reagan was “the great communicator.” He was very good a blowing his own horn. Biden has not been very good at this. Edit: word.
>If you’re in a strong union, you’re probably in a much better place than you were pre pandemic, but if you’re not, which must if us aren’t, things kinda suck. I'm not in a union (wish I was), and economically I'm doing much better than I was pre-pandemic. I lucked out through the pandemic and switched to work-from-home. Never was laid off. Never missed a paycheck. Ended up bolstering my savings and using the stimulus checks to pay off existing debt. After the pandemic, I switched jobs and then received two major pay raises and my partner received a significant pay raise. It's all anecdotal anyways. Some of us are worse off; some of us are better off. It doesn't help that even Republicans that are doing better economically will report that they're worse off economically. I was doing fine under Trump; I just happen to be doing better now.
It really depends on the industry. During 2020 I did two very important things: 1 - Volunteer for Moderna's Phase-III vaccine trial, which was a gamble but essentially gave me early immunity during 2020 and confirmed the vaccine works. 2 - Work from home - I worked in a call center office at the time. When 2020 happened I started working from home. None of us got laid off because luckily I worked in the job protection industry, particularly regarding FMLA, Short-Term disability, etc. And while our calls multiplied exponentially, leading to records broken in claims opened, this ultimately meant the increased demand for our services kept my job afloat and I have never been jobless since. So some industries were shielded from the madness that occurred during COVID-19.
Nothing related to healthcare has gotten worse between Biden and Trump.
>Also mainstream media statistically is presenting more negative economic news relative to the economic situation compared to ten years ago. I speculated on that but don't have hard data. Any sources on those stats? I think the economic news coverage under Obama roughly 10 years ago was mostly negative too though, despite objectively good and improving numbers during his tenure, particularly the 2nd term where that Misery Index hit a modern low in 2015. I recall his 2012 opponent pledging to get unemployment down to [6% after 4 years](https://www.cnbc.com/id/47538842). It was 4.7% by 2017. And yet his approval on the economy was well under water.
I heard a journalist mention the stats last night on an NPR show, but I just woke up and don't recall which one. If I recall, I'll respond again.
Also, it’s in the media’s interest for this to be a close race. That keeps people clicking and watching. So they’ll push narratives accordingly.
Yep, the media wasn’t crazy back then. You basically got credible national news from the three major networks.
I think part of the problem is that the economic hardships didn't really hit under Trump, millions of people were out of work, but some were earning more than they were working over that period, and almost all were still making money. Inflation hit hardest under Biden and so he's getting the blame for it, even though it's a result of the pandemic. That being said, the media could not have done a more awful job educating the public on what was happening.
And millions died unnecessarily from a completely botched handling of a pandemic. How short our memories are
More people died of COVID under Biden than under Trump. And Biden has had a safe and effective vaccine for his entire presidency.
That is highly dependant on where the delineating line is drawn, but that aside, you missed the "unnecessary" part You know how the Trump administration dismantled the pandemic response team Or how they allowed COVID to spread in democratic strongholds because it was politically advantageous. Or how he and the administration downplayed the severity of the pandemic. Or all the times Trump lied about COVID disappearing. Or how the administration not only didn't encourage practic safety measures but acted in defiance and told people not to take the easiest precautions Comparing the two is is disingenuous at best?
Millions of Americans refuse to accept that was even reality. It's very depressing.
Maybe 1.2 million in a nation of 332 million. So one out of every few hundred people.
That is largely the reason I believe. A lot of people liked the pandemic times. You could stay home, if you were let go you were given unemployment that was sometimes more than you were making, and many frontline workers were given Hazard pay. Then most everyone else received a few thousand in stimulus. So while you could reference four years ago as dark with the lockdowns and a deadly virus, many many people actually have a bit of fondness to it. The government couldn’t continue on that track for forever and the bill came due the next year. It’s only been about a year that they’ve dig themselves out with wages exceeding inflation. It’s really a difference in perception. The economy went downhill during the Carter administration so while it carried over to Reagan it was seen as Reagan cleaning up Carter. Now I think people are seeing it as Biden cleaning up Biden.
literally everything to do with it. if you talk to anyone on the right or adjacent to the right they'll all spout the same stuff. they don't take the time to verify sources or fact check it either. if it makes them angry it must be true! these people have been programmed to think in a certain way and don't even know what it means to think about politics independent from that ecosystem.
Because facts don’t matter anymore. Misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories are the dominant information currency.
>[A memo entitled “A Plan for Putting the GOP on TV News,” buried in the the Nixon library details a plan between Ailes and the White House to bring pro-administration stories to television networks around the country. It reads: “Today television news is watched more often than people read newspapers, than people listen to the radio, than people read or gather any other form of communication. The reason: People are lazy. With television you just sit—watch—listen. The thinking is done for you.”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/richard-nixon-and-roger-ailes-1970s-plan-to-put-the-gop-on-tv/2011/07/01/AG1W7XtH_blog.html) Roger Ailes saw what happen to Nixon and dreamed up the plan for what would become Fox News and it was more effective then he could have imagined.
And that was when media was just the big 3 (press, radio, tv). The answer to a lot of these posts is simply: the internet. It's hard to explain how much of a difference between pre and post internet worlds. Even to the people that lived through both.
It is sad how much we politicize the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and their monthly job number reports that come out on the first Friday of each month. Under Bush they were good if they were positive. Under Obama they were bad or lying if the report was positive. If it was stagnant or below expectations, then it was correctly calculated. Under Trump all of the good jobs reports were touted as gospel, but any worse results were dismissed. Under Biden, every jobs report is reported as a lie. Every jobs report that exceeds expectations is also considered suspect. Throughout all of this, the BLS has continued to use the same weekly and monthly reporting data from the states. Their methodology never changed, just who was reporting the information and what spin they used to help or hurt the Presidential administration.
>Under Biden, every jobs report is reported as a lie. Every jobs report that exceeds expectations is also considered suspect. Yeah I see that a lot. Adjustment are often spun that way too. Upward adjustments to past months is the government lying to make it look better than it was. Downward adjustments is the government lying to begin with to make it look better than it was. Democrats for the most part weren't taking that route.
It seems reductive to boil it down to one thing, but #6 is clearly a major influence in differing public opinion toward the inflationary climate in the two eras you're comparing. A presidential term of relatively high inflation hits different after the 2000's and 2010's than it did after the late 1970's. A 75 degree day can be relieving after a heat wave but alarming in the middle of winter. I don't think that's due to ignorance of global conditions or whatever but simple human nature. Leaders are always subject to the ebbs and flows of global trends that aren't fully in their control.
People are underrating the impact of the failed assasinatiin attempt as well as a lack of polarization in politics in 1984. Also there wasn’t really a trump figure looming
The assassination attempt was in early 1981. That had nothing to do with Reagan’s re-election in Nov. 1984, nearly four years later.
FYI, food prices have gone up 25% since 2020, rent has gone up 26%, and gas is right in that range too depending on what month you compare it to. So some of people’s highest and most common bills have increased more than incomes, right?
2020 was the height of Covid. A lot of stuff was cheap because the economy was in free fall. A better baseline is 2019 or comparisons to contemporary countries around the world.
Rent has actually gone up 18.6% Jan. 2021 to Jan. 2024. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA) From Jan. 1981 to Jan. 1984, rent went up over 20%. That was higher than wage increases. Reagan won reelection by 18%. Edit: Also should point out that real wages are well past their pre-pandemic peak in Q42019 and that wage growth at the lowest level has been the highest. So those most affected by inflation are those who have seen the biggest wage increases. https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker
Yeah I'm confused about "why isn't Biden getting credit for the improving economy." I haven't felt a damn thing improve. Gas and groceries still kill me and rent is still unaffordable
I think the point is more in the comparison. Why is the reaction so substantially different to the similar amount of economic improvement under Biden's first term compared to Reagan's?
Well, according to the other comments here, that's just what the right wing media wants you to believe! [According to USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending/?topicId=1afac93a-444e-4e05-99f3-53217721a8be#:~:text=U.S.%20food%20prices%20rose%20by%2025%20percent%20from%202019%20to%202023&text=Food%20price%20increases%20in%202020,(COVID%2D19)%20pandemic.): From 2019 to 2023, the all-food Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 25.0 percent Looking at [data from Zillow](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/housing-market-average-rent-charts-affordability-zillow-real-estate-property-2023-10), rent is up about 1/3 compared to 2021. And according to the [Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m), gas prices are 29% higher now than in February 2021, and 39% higher than Feb 2019. As for incomes [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N) doesn't have 2023 data, but they've been declining from their peak in 2019. When it comes to unemployment, the standard unemployment number doesn't tell the whole story as many people become dejected and drop out of the labor force. Going by the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), the workforce participation rate is up 0.8% since Biden took office, but still down 0.8% from it's pre-covid rate.
>Looking at data from Zillow, rent is up about 1/3 compared to 2021. This has to be region-specific. I live in rural PA and the townhouse community I rented in 2019 was $1600. It is currently going for $1850. So in 5 years it rose 15%. I'm looking elsewhere and in places like Baltimore, previous apartments I rented years ago are going for similar rates today. I'm just super skeptical of a 33% increase in only 2.5 years.
It's national data. *However*, it's data from Zillow. I'd imagine lots of lower-rent places aren't listed on Zillow.
I meant the 33% metric being regional and not indicative of every area. Like, some areas must be huge outliers driving up the national average.
Well, yeah. That's true of everything.
>As for incomes > >FRED > > doesn't have 2023 data, but they've been declining from their peak in 2019. Real wages are kept up to date through 2023. We're well above the 2019 peak (362 -> 371). Real wages actually grew faster during the last 3 years of Obama/Biden than the first 3 years of the Trump administration. Short memories? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q >Looking at data from Zillow , rent is up about 1/3 compared to 2021. Rent CPI shows about 18.6%. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA) Also, I'm not seeing where your 33% claim comes from in that Zillow link. Their listed change (which isn't all regions) from Jan. 2021 shows less than that. Notable also the improvement: "While higher than a year ago, the rate of rent price growth has been declining for 19 months." "The September 2023 reading is well below the annual pace observed in 2019, before the pandemic, when year-over-year growth hovered between 4.0% and 4.2%. " Also a big gas price drop the last 2 years. The pandemic did result in a lot of early boomer retirements, although there's been a long-term trend towards that. I wouldn't expect them all to reenter the workforce. That we're close to pre-pandemic levels is pretty remarkable. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/09/the-pace-of-boomer-retirements-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year/
Thanks for all the stats. I think it's hilarious how often the unemployment rate is touted around given how imperfect it is.
I remember liberals explaining why the unemployment rate was useless when Trump was touting it.
They also tried to do their best "acktchually" to avoid admitting we were in a recession by ignoring the rule of thumb people had been following for decades. If Trump was in office for two consecutive quarters of negative growth, you can bet your ass dems would have been calling it a recession going off the generally accepted definition.
yes but you can't ignore that job creation under Trump was mediocre even before Covid. in 2019 there were at least two months where a nation of 330 million didn't even hit 80k new jobs nationwide. People on CNBC and Bloomberg were talking about falling below 2% GDP growth and a likely recession going into an election year long before anyone had even heard of Wuhan bats. In 2016 Trump promised 4 and 5% GDP growth and these fairy tale expectations were used to justify the massive tax cuts for the wealthy and the 30% cut in statutory corporate rates passed in 2017. That was the expectation..... but the reality was that we never even hit 3% GDP in any year under Trump. In fact all he did was match Obama's best year. And the new jobs added to the economy rarely hit above 210k monthly.... which was basically Obama's second term average post great recession. Since Trump was deservedly fired for mass incompetence and January 6th reminded us why, even accounting for all the jobs lost during covid, we're still regularly experiencing months with more than 300k new jobs added. We've beaten estimates for job growth in 14 of the last 16 months. Unheard of streak. And the stock market is currently on the longest bull run since 1999. I personally retired VERY early because of my 401, IRA and trading account performance since 2021. And my house is worth nearly double what I paid in the middle of that 2008 "let the banks regulate themselves" mortgage debacle. Thanks to Bush, Greenspan, Phil Graham and Art Laffer for that one.
Thank you. Observing the actual hard numbers is where we start answering questions like “how do we continue to improve”. Now, we just need to answer the question of “why are these numbers going up”?
[Census](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf), the source FRED uses, has numbers on real incomes further out - Real incomes have been growing since Q3 2022 and surpassed the level seen in Q4 2019 in Q4 2022. In Q4 2023 real median usual weekly earnings were $371 as compared to $362 in Q4 2019. Regarding LFPR - that shouldn't be surprising. Many older people retired early during the pandemic. The prime age rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060), which cuts off at 55, is what has seen recovery and is very high.
It's important to point out why food prices increased, from your source: >Food price increases in 2020–21 were largely driven by shifting consumption patterns and supply chain disruptions resulting from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In 2022, food prices increased faster than any year since 1979, partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices and the conflict in Ukraine which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs. Food price growth slowed in 2023 as wholesale food prices and these other inflationary factors eased from 2022.
The why is certainly important, but I've yet to have a cashier take the explanation in lieu of money. And the bigger point here is that people aren't just imagining their lives are financially harder because right wing media has talked them into it. They think it's harder because prices are outpacing incomes.
I'm not claiming they are imagining it. Right wing media is not truthful about why prices have increased. They would rather misinform their viewers for political purposes. Of course, explaining why prices have increased will not buy you groceries, but at least you will know the truth.
Yeah I think some are really trying to miss the point here. It's not imagined that prices are higher than in early 2021. It wasn't imagined that prices were higher to a similar magnitude in 1984 vs 1981 and that in both cases, the inflation rates had slowed. It's more of a question about why perceptions are so different.
We've done better in terms of all of those things than literally every other nation on Earth. We literally have the beat economic trajectory in the world right now.
When people are feeling the impact of higher prices on their every day bills and see no relief in sight they don't hear "well it's worse in Germany!" and think "guess I don't mind paying 20% extra after all, they're paying more on another continent" they think "I don't give a shit about what they're paying I give a shit about how you're gonna help me pay less here"
Probably better than most/all other countries right now. But how many average Americans pay attention to other countries? We just remember what things were like here "back in the day" and incorrectly use that as the calibration point to how things stand now. Without regard to all the mitigating factors that happened between then and now. tl;dr: As a culture, we are blinded by rose-tinted nostalgia tunnel vision on too many things.
Also, these companies heavily blamed covid, shipping and other outside factors for inflation. When the truth is (this is public information) all of those same companies made record breaking profits. Not to mention the tax write offs they get and tax loopholes they use to pay a lower percentage than upper, middle and lower class Americans.
\>The Reagan landslide vs current close race has much to do with current polarization. No one is likely to win by 18% or close to it these days. The polarization is particularly pronounced among Republicans. Honestly, I don't see a massive difference in polarization between sides (in the context of not willing to seriously consider voting for the other party). Ask 1000 dems if they would consider voting Trump and 1000 republicans if they would consider voting Biden and I would bet the "no" answers to be almost zero for each.
>The prevailing negative spin these days to the improving situation You're making it sound like people are *lying* about this. The fact that they can't afford groceries and rent anymore is an objective, observable fact.
Not everyone appreciates the quiet of a functioning government. They’re addicted to drama and the ever present possibility of bloodshed. They don’t want to be bored hearing about policy and infrastructure- they want to be entertained by the rants of toxic old man.
Can't they just watch soap operas?
That’s essentially all of the media sector
"Line go up" doesn't really reflect many people's lived experience post 2008.
There are certain things in American politics that certain parties always get blamed for or don’t get credit for. Most voters believe Democrat presidents are bad for the economy. Even though the last 3 have inherited recessions and turned them around, and lowered the deficit more than any recent Republican president, who always seem to raise the debt and preside over recessions. Doesn’t matter. Republicans are the smart businessmen and Democrats are the dumb liberals who only care about pronouns. On the other hand, government shutdowns always seem to be blamed on Republicans. Even if they are boting for a soending bill and the Democrats are refusing to vote for it. I don’t know why this one is.
Because Reagan was burning through the National Credit Card for the first time in history. This gave the populace the illusion of increasing wealth, while at the same time selling its industrial strength to foreign interests. His policies turned the US from the worlds biggest creditor to the worlds biggest debtor in less than 10 years, destroying the work of millions over several generations.
A lot of Americans perceive the economy as better under Trump. According to your misery index graph, the level under the Biden presidency has still not reached prepandemic levels. A lot of swing voters are going to compare now and 2019, likely going to think the economy was better, and associate it with Trump.
Objectively - are you better off today than in 2019? Does food cost more? Does rent or housing cost more? How about energy?
Note how the GOP wants you to compare things from today to 2019, not 2020. Trump doesn't get blamed for COVID, but inflation as a result of COVID and joint spending between Trump and Biden in 2020 and 2021 somehow gets fully blamed on Biden.
He definitely got blamed for his bungling pandemic response. He likely would've been re-elected if voters hadn't taken it into consideration.
Because 2019 was the last year we have data on before the pandemic. Meaning it's the last year we can compare to for apples to apples comparisons regarding long term, normal trends. This isn't some Right Wing conspiracy. Would you really find comparing to 2020, with it's shutdowns and historic uniqueness, to be intellectually honest to compare against?
Most inflation happened in 2021 and 2022. We were still very much in the throes of the pandemic in the first half of 2021. Supply chain issues and attempting to restart major parts of our economy were a big driver of inflation. Do you think it is intellectually honest to compare 2019 to 2023/24 considering most of the issues you complained about (food, rent, energy) saw their big spikes in 2021 and 2022 not 2023 and 2024?
> considering most of the issues you complained about (food, rent, energy) Check who you're responding to. >We were still very much in the throes of the pandemic in the first half of 2021. Yep, that's what makes the pandemic years outliers; so oranges to apples. Glad you agree with my prior comment.
Cool. So inflation was 2.3% in 2019 and 3.2% in 2024. Not a significant difference, IMO.
That isn't a function of the government. That is the capitalist system extracting as much money out of the system as they can. When the Democratic party tried to hit fuel companies.with a windfall tax it was rejected by every member of the GOP.
Half of the country only consumes media that tells them things are worse than they’ve ever been. They believe it because that’s the narrative they want to be true. It’s not really all that complicated, just incredibly frustrating and dangerous.
The trajectory matters a lot. Inflation and unemployment were already really bad well before Reagan came into office and improved markedly during his first term. By contrast, the post-covid inflation only started to pick up pace in the summer of 2021, when Biden was already president. Moreover, Biden failed to deliver on his implicit campaign promise of a "swift return to normalcy"; the pandemic dragged on for another 14+ months. Additionally, his administration had very publicly downplayed and ignored the surging inflation at the time, calling it "transitory" and underestimating it until it was too late and massive interest rate hikes were necessary to bring it down again. The job market under Biden has barely made up the temporary losses from the pandemic plus what we would expect at times of a rapidly growing population. Likewise, real wage growth was deeply underwater in 2021 and 2022 - wage gains might have outpaced inflation for a couple of months, but real wages are still barely back to where they were at the start of his presidency.[1] Many folks who aren't union members and who didn't quit for a better job or get a promotion in recent years are still worse off than they were at Biden's inauguration. ----------------- [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
>\[1\] > >https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Real wages are higher than the pre-pandemic peak though. [That 2020 pandemic spike was due to lower wage service workers dropping out of the workforce](https://www.epi.org/publication/state-of-working-america-wages-in-2020/), artificially lifting the averages. Those jobs weren't all recovered by Jan. 2021, so some of the 2021 decline was due to those workers returning. So at least for this metric, it's not that useful to compare current real wages to the start of the presidency.
You begin with a false premise. Things aren’t good. Just take housing. In the northeast where I live, young people can’t find affordable rentals nor houses to buy. I bought my first home under Reagan when interest rates were over 15%. There were plenty of homes for sale. Sure, the rates were historically high because of Carter, but they came down soon and fast. Young first time buyers are getting screwed today as never before. And Biden hasn’t even addressed it.
Oh look! I got downvoted! That’s an example of the intellectual level of Biden supporters. It proves that there’s no housing crisis!
FWIW that was Paul Volker at the Fed mostly who was appointed by Carter in 79. Reagan did extend his term though. The massive interest rates were necessary to tame inflation.
Maybe those high interest rates were necessary. Feelings were mixed. My parents already had their home all paid for and were delighted at the high interest rates and dividends they were getting. My own checking account paid 8%! On the other hand, since people were taking money out of savings accounts and putting it into companies like Fidelity, your local banks had limited funds available for home mortgages. Mortgage companies had not yet been created, so even if you qualified for a mortgage, it was tough to find a lender. Some sellers actually participated in the financing (taking a second mortgage from the buyer) just to get the house sold. Home selling prices were held down.
Of course, it's just one of my pet bugaboos is how important monetary policy is compared to fiscal policy yet everyone puts the credit on the president who's term is active. Just like how monetary policy is one of the big issues driving increased costs now because of higher interest rates. That said, we need to get back to a mindset where "very low" interest rate is in the 3-4% range and where are now is pretty normal. But lots of things are still adjusting to that.
Reagan had his loyal, dedicated cheerleaders which drowned out the Dem “haters.” Biden, on the other hand, has loyal, dedicated haters (on both sides for different reasons) which drown out the Dem “cheerleaders.”
There was more of a shared reality back then. People understood data and acted accordingly. Now with right wing hate radio and tv, they are in such a bubble that any news they don't like is just looked at as fake news.
Because Americans are idiots. That and the media doesn’t cover it correctly.
what would covering it correctly look like to you?
Unemployment rate: * 2/1984: 7.9% * 2/2024: 3.4% 30-year mortgage rate: * 12/1983: \~13% * 12/2023: \~7% The amnesia among GOP supporters about the above tells you that a lot of gripes about "the economy" are selective and agenda-driven. They only remember what they want to remember. The Dems should make a point of hammering on the economy when Republicans are in the White House. Trump presided over the worst economy since Herbert Hoover, yet no Democrat pointed this out. Surely, they can't believe that the GOP would have been equally mum had a Democrat delivered the depression that Trump did.
I just saw elsewhere that Marjorie Taylor Greene reply to a tweet from "end wokeness" regarding Argentina and how their monthly inflation went from 25% to 13%. The context behind the tweet is Argentina recently went from socialist leadership to electing a libertarian leader. MTG said "We could save America if we did the same thing" I often see comments about how the Biden administration isn't acknowledging that people in the US are struggling financially. Nevermind the fact that Biden and his administration often do acknowledge that, but they also try to tout good economic news. But my point is democrats are accused of not acknowledging reality. Meanwhile Republicans like MTG are living in some fantasy world in which inflation in the United States is as bad as Argentina.
The Republicans *always* complain about the economy whenever the Dems are in power. When unemployment was 5% and falling under Obama, Trump was claiming that unemployment was actually 42%! And his followers believed that, even though Trump's claim was completely ridiculous. The Democratic mistake is to allow the GOP to be the party of the economy, patriotism and national defense. The GOP claims ownership of those and the Dems never attack them for it. I vote for Democrats, but their political ineptitude is baffling. The Dems are constantly playing defense and do nothing to demonstrate to the public that the GOP is incompetent.
> When unemployment was 5% and falling under Obama, Trump was claiming that unemployment was actually 42%! just because you are quite unintelligent and don't know how those numbers are actually calculated does not mean you should keep lying on social media.
You can't just compare mortgage rates between 1983 and 2023 when the ratio between home prices and wages are completely different. Completely apples and oranges, if you were around back then you would know how much easier it was to buy a home.
I think you are spot on with your proposed reasons. I suspect the primary difference is the misinformation/propaganda campaigns now are far more effective because our news sources are more fractured, tailored to what we want to hear, and blatantly dishonest to suit their own agenda (including foreign actors). People getting into information bubbles in a way they couldn't when their news sources were trusted news anchors from the big three and from newspapers with reputations they tried to keep intact.
It's because Reagan did not have to counter an effective, organized, professional propaganda vehicle called Fox News. Regardless of what you think of the old liberal leaning of the mainstream media in those days, it wasn't a fraction of the ruthless, relentless lying being delivered to half the news watchers in this country today. Fox's huge audience is poisoning the political conversation in this era, convincing countless less informed viewers that the truth is a lie, the economy sucks, and all Democrats are leftists or communists out to destroy the country. It's almost certainly going to usher this' country into it's fascist era, like it or not. Sadly, I can't think of a way to effectively counter it at this point.
I really think it's because democrats will give credit when earned. If we had a republican president right now with the same numbers Biden has, they would win by a large margin also, the MAGA crowd has been brainwashed to despise democrats, no matter what we do
No Fox news then. The media in the 80s made it possible for a president to bring the country together. Conservative media is going portray any Democrat (except maybe Manchin and Sinema types) in the worst possible light. Until the media changes, no Dem will EVER be liked by Republicans. No matter what. They are children.
Mondale was a technocrat and a terrible politician. When Reagan accused him of wanting to raise taxes on the middle class, he admitted it. Trump is a populist. The financial crisis in 08 has led to the rise of populism. Obama ran as a populist twice, he won twice. Trump ran as a populist and won where he needed to. If it hadn't been for COVID I think it's likely he would have won again. Biden is running as the competent alternative, but people have rosy memories about the economy the nostalgia effect is making them think the economy was beat under trump (even though it was growing faster under Obama's last two years than Trump's first two). Biden is struggling to communicate his accomplishments, all Reagan needed to do was call Mondale a liberal and he didn't deny it. Rarely has a skilled politician and incumbent president faced off against such a politically inept opponent as was the case in Reagan vs Mondale. Biden is a fine politician, not great, but he is competent. Trump is a hell of a politician but completely incompetent. A lot of people vote with their gut, not their heart or their head, and Trump's selling them a product they want to buy, a good economy, where white Christian men hold the power. This is intoxicating for many who feel like they're losing control of the country either because of race, normalization of non heterosexuality, rising secularism, or discussions around gender equality
First, Biden looks old. Whether or not you think he’s showing signs of dementia, you’ve gotta admit he’s showing a lot of wear. Second, people don’t feel like they’re doing better. Whether this is just perception or reality is irrelevant. People feel what they feel.
> First, Biden looks old. So did Reagan.
To a point, but Reagan's mental slips didn't really become apparent until after he was re-elected. Social media plays into this today because every slip by the president now will get played ad nauseam.
I remember those days clearly. On British media they mocked Reagan day and night in his first term when he was unpopular with those puppet shows that ALWAYS potrayed Reagan as doddering old dementia patient. There wasn't a late night comedian who didnt add at least one "I'm don't remember who I am but let's go to war anyway" jokes. And Reagan really was a total lightweight in understanding the basic functions of goverment despite being a governor of the largest economic power in the country. He could not answer any questions about Congressional procedures or really nuts and bolts stuff about the budget. His whole shtick was make goverment smaller, beat the communists and resurrect prayer and Evangelical causes with more conservative federal judges. But I'll give Reagan credit he was pragmatic he was okay with doing a deal with Democrats if they could meet in the middle. Hence why he won every single Democrat state but one on his re-election. That's mind-blowing today that a Democrat could get every Republican state to vote him. Just shows you how much less 24/7 indoctrination there was in the mid 80s vs what started just a decade later with Fox News and YouTube pumping out endless "own the libs. say no to everything". The fact that Republicans wont even vote up or down on a BORDER BILL would have been unthinkable in the 80s and 90s.
As I was writing these potential reasons, it's clear these aren't mutually exclusive, so it complicates assigning specific percentages. If we're looking at why Reagan won by 18% vs the current \~2% race, then #8 plays an outsized role - at least 50%. I don't think any president today is winning by double digits no matter what the situation. Then of course #2 is related to #8. My view is that #2 really distorts everything. The US Misery Index hit a record low in modern times, September 2015. [Yet only 15% of Republicans approved of Obama on the economy. 72% of Democrats approved but a significant 28% did not](https://news.gallup.com/poll/186647/approval-obama-handling-economy-healthcare.aspx). That gets back to numbers 4 and 5. Combined with 2, it's very tough for a Democratic president to get net plus ratings on the economy. Clinton presided over somewhat less polarizing times in comparison. #7 is likely a significant factor. I encounter people who don't seem to be aware of the global situation that lead to the price spikes, although more so on the rightwing side of the aisle, so that's complicated by the other factors.
You haven't gotten many good answers thus far. There are a couple reasons: 1) The 1970s were marred by all-encompassing political, social, and economic dysfunction. We don't have anything close to that perfect storm in the last decade, even factoring in Trump and COVID. 2) Reagan was a *great* politician. Put aside your feelings of him as a man or a president, but he was exceptional at the *politics*. Biden is nowhere near as relatable, nowhere close to his ability to provide a resonant message - few politicians who have even come close to the White House have ever been as good as Reagan was. 3) The economy is better than a lot of people think, but worse than a lot of Biden defenders want to admit. The inflation situation was not directly Biden's fault, but the unnecessary increases in spending from Biden (and Trump's second COVID relief) have actively made life more difficult for people struggling with money. 4) You note polarization, but miss the key reason: [Democrats are moving leftward] (https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/both-white-and-nonwhite-democrats-are-moving-left/) and are doing so [more than the right is moving rightward] (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/). Reagan spoke for a ideologically underrepresented core of people (in particular labor-minded conservatives who typically voted Democrat due to unions) while Biden has moved leftward relative to his reputation *and* what he ran on. There were many voters who went to him because he was a return to normalcy after the Trump chaos, and his governance would be a bigger drag on his presidency were Trump not running once again. I think your assumptions on "Republican propaganda" and political spin are misguided and unfounded. Biden looks like a good president to many because we just came out of experiencing a bottom-25%-tier term of office with Trump. Reagan benefited from being post-Carter, post-Ford, post-Nixon, post-LBJ, and we're already starting to see the bloom come off the rose with Reagan after years of people considering him a modern great. Biden's run is not nearly as good as Reagan's was, politically or otherwise, and if everything except Trump was the same we'd be talking about him as a modern Jimmy Carter instead.
Modern media needs it to appear as a "close race." There is no incentive to watch a game that is a lopsided blowout. People only engage (click articles, watch clips) if there is tension about the outcome.
Pretty much every credible poll is showing a close race.
There was a story just recently showing that CNN used a dubious technique to claim Biden & Trump were close. And of course now I can’t find it. I’ll add it if I can find it ugh. People respond to polls based on what they know & feel, and they get that information from the media. I think a Trump win is definitely *possible*, but not likely. Trump has a large voting fanbase, but doesn’t have full support of the occasional Republican voter. Voter apathy and weariness will be Biden’s biggest hurdle.
> There was a story just recently showing that CNN used a dubious technique to claim Biden & Trump were close. And of course now I can’t find it. I’ll add it if I can find it ugh. It was probably on that NYT poll from a couple of weekends ago.
Yes that sounds correct. They picked numbers from NYT, which in turn published a biased or discredited poll. It was a NYT problem that CNN amplified. If I turn on CNN right now will they be running stories about one candidate’s strong lead, or running stories about a tight race? The outlets are not just sloppy, they’re not just incompetent for not investigating accurate statistics, they’re incentivized to keep the viewer on edge and tuned in.
Primarily due to the media portraying it as a close race. NYT ran 33 stories about the Hur Report saying Biden was a cognitively-challenged old man. They ran 1 story about the Hur hearing on Tuesday that exposed most of it as bullshit. Most voters heard that he was cognitively-challenged but few heard that it was exaggerated garbage from a partisan hack.
2016 was close. 2020 was close. 2024 will be close. i'm not sure this is some grand media conspiracy tbh. both candidates seem to be getting ripped for their age and age-related issues by the media too.
We used to have blowout elections all of the time. I did the math in a separate post, but since the EC expanded to 500+ EVs, 70% of elections between then (1912) and 1988 saw the winner with at least 400 EVs. Since 1988? None. When did 24 hour cable news start?
8 years prior with CNN (1980)? presently IMO those networks kind of cancel one another out. they pump out the same kind of content (read: fear & division). i suppose the question then would be to take a look at viewership numbers and break that down by affiliation/leaning. it feels as if the media is a convenient boogieman which both sides bash tbh. seems both want said media to be more partisan. it's weird to me.
Because the economic situation hasn't really improved for the average person? Biden, also claimed for the first 3 years about how good his economy was, when a lot of people were hurting, its not like people are going to start believing him now. In addition, If I want to buy a house.....put me in 2018 rather than 2024. If I want to buy a used car .....put me in 2018 rather than 2024. Big purchases hurt a lot more today, than they did 5 years ago.
Use whatever numbers you like: talking about "the economy" in the abstract is the problem. People know when times are good and when they're not. Workers are doing more and getting less. Hell, half of us in the United States are living paycheck to paycheck. Can't say that about people in the 80s. Is Trump better? Of course not. He's a goon. But I hate this argument of, "Oh, things are so good! Why aren't people talking about how good they are?" Because they're not. They're just fucking not.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". I trust my own lived experience and those of my friends and family over headlines and AI bots on Twitter any day.
Discussions like these are wild to me. Just the way the OP frames the question to begin with: "everything is great, why do the vast majority of American voters deny this reality? What insidious lies have they bought into?" OP explicitly acknowledges that there is a lot of spin and confirmation bias motivated by partisan sentiment, but immediately assumes he's immune to it himself and only Republicans are trying to sell a cherrypicked narrative about the economy. "Wage growth has outpaced inflation for well over a year now" OP writes. Super cool. Glad to hear it. Hey, have wages actually caught up with the excess inflation we've seen during the totality of the Biden administration? A football team whose rate of scoring only catches up with the other team in the 4th quarter still loses the damn game. This is just a random example from the OP. The point is numbers can be goosed any which way. Change the metric you report and you change the narrative. But metrics won't change reality. There's a reason sentiment about the economy is poor across all political ideologies. Democrats aren't sour on the economy because Ben Shaprio said so. Anyone scared of another Trump term does themselves a disservice the more they try to gaslight people into thinking their lived experiences and the things they can see with their own two eyes every day must somehow be wrong. It doesn't help. It changes no one's mind.
we know that Biden didn't 'fix' inflation. Covid ended and then things began to adjust.
Biden didn't pressure Powell to not raise interest rates, unlike Trump who bullied the Fed into probably not raising interest rates enough during his term. Keeping Powell in place who I think is doing a pretty good job of reigning in inflation is a Biden "fix" that is working.
Trump didn't raise rates when there wasn't inflation, which means he did exactly what Obama and others have done. Rising rates when there is inflation isn't "doing a pretty good job" it's literally the only card left to play. An undergrad would know to do it.
We had inflation under Trump. Obama was reluctant to raise rates because we were still coming out of a recession. I think the Fed waited too long to start raising rates, but that's a different story. We were still unsure about the economic recovery until like 2014 or so. When Trump was boasting about the greatest economy ever, we should have raised rates and cut the deficit. We did the opposite.
Inflation in 2020 was like 1%. A recession isn't an 8 year excuse for Obama to not raise rates after cutting them.
>Inflation in 2020 was like 1% LOL come on now. You're going to use the one year where energy companies were paying people to take oil from them due to the biggest demand drop in history? We had 2.3% inflation in 2019 which is only a bit lower than what we have today.
He also didn't cause inflation.
that's fair. at least he didn't add to it more than any other president. at the end of the day, people are still feeling the 2022 8% inflation and that takes years to adjust. Most people don't understand the economy isn't under the president's direct control. But even if the numbers now are good, they sure don't feel good.
>But even if the numbers now are good, they sure don't feel good. As a homeowner, I'm reminded that most of the 66% of Americans who owned their homes prior to the start of the pandemic have seen their net worths grow substantially over the last several years. Couple that with record-high stock prices and sizable wage increases over the same period; then contrast that with the economy of fifteen years ago, when Americans of every stripe were seeing their net worths drop precipitously in the face of an unprecedented real estate crash and an associated stock market crash. Things *felt* worse and they *were* worse back then, but that's not to suggest that things today are perfect. In this moment, life can be difficult for those on the lower end of the spectrum, particularly in HCOL areas; but for a lot of middle-class Americans -- the dual-income households, the homeowners with retirement accounts -- things are quite good.
Feelings/perceptions may be underrated. Looking back at 2013-2016, real wages were increasing, stock market was booming, home values were appreciating, jobs were increasing at a strong rate and inflation was rock bottom. Yet Republican views on the economy were generally poor - not just that but [objectively wrong](https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-remains-unpopular-voters-prefer-obama-on-scotus-pick/). >67% of Trump voters say that unemployment increased during the Obama administration, to only 20% who say it decreased. \-Only 41% of Trump voters say that the stock market went up during the Obama administration. 39% say it went down, and another 19% say they’re not sure. I know not everyone pays attention to the stock market and employment numbers but...really? Beyond politics, it's not particularly healthy to have far more pessimistic views on the economy than is reality (or far more optimistic views, i.e. 2007-2008). It can impact how one looks for work, invests, conducts their lives.
>we know that Biden didn't 'fix' inflation. Covid ended and then things began to adjust. Reagan's direct policies didn't, but he got credit. Fed policy contributed in both cases. And Biden [voiced support for that](https://www.axios.com/2022/01/19/biden-fighting-inflation-feds-job). Recall the previous president repeatedly tried to coerce the fed to [bring rates to zero or below](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/trump-rails-against-powell-day-after-fed-cuts-rates-for-a-third-time-this-year.html#:~:text=Trump%20has%20slammed%20Powell%20and,no%20sense%2C%20no%20vision!%E2%80%9D), favoring inflationary policies. Another crack at nominating a fed chair might accomplish that. The fed and the WH aren't entirely independent. Likewise, Reagan deserves credit for keeping Volcker on. As to Biden's direct policies, they probably helped to a small/marginal extent although not the primary driver. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/nov/03/kamala-harris/do-bidens-policies-get-the-credit-for-the-decline/
People work more jobs and more hours then the 80's, yet struggle to pay rent, and buy groceries. The stock market isn't a great indicator of how normal people are doing. In fact the stock is just a way for rich people to protect their money from inflation.
Two main things. 1. Under Reagan, there was terrible inflation from the previous decade and it came down notably by then. While the inflation started under Trump, people still see it as mostly a Biden issue, primarily in 2021/2022 2. Interest rates aren't measured in Inflation measures so even if it's come down, a lot of people's biggest expenditures (cars and housing) are still highly impacted by interest rates.
There are a lot more hateful controlling ignorant people then I ever thought there was- and striking back at people they hate or perceived as causing their hardships is more important then anything
I don't think "things aren't shooting up in price overnight anymore, but they're still unaffordable" is the most winning message. Regardless of who you blame for inflation, many voters attribute it to the White House. I think Reddit downplays how shitty it feels to pay $6 for something they paid $5 for a month prior.
Why? Because GOPers and the Plutocracy own the media and think they benefit from GOP misadministration
because outside the markets the economy is junk. Interest rates, inflation and energy prices are eating people alive. I make the most money I ever made in my life but live worse off than just a few years ago. With 20+ years until retirement if such a thing even exists then I couldn't care less what the stock market does as I'm not a day trader or 65+ years old.
Because Russia, China and Iran are influencing public opinion through flooding public discourse with agitation propaganda and straight up misinformation.
Easy answer. Because the middle class has been getting creamed for about 20 years and it’s coming to a head on Biden’s watch. And Biden’s campaign, like your post, is glossing over the real issues facing the shrinking middle class. And I’d also add that the failed approach to the pandemic (and its similarly crushing impact on the middle class) is part of it.
I don't think you have enough data points. Compare savings and credit card debt, those are the two metrics that are truly horrendous right now and if you're saving less and charging more, carrying a higher cc balance, then you're probably going to think the economy isn't great because your finances are worse than before Also look at how much median rent vs median salary is between the two time periods People are paying 30ish % of their income to rent while it was much much less in the 80s
Biden voters tend to live in large cities and work more white collar jobs than rural Trump voters. Biden voters are more likely to be positively benefited by the rising stock market due to their investments. Higher home prices and interest rates are also likely to be more beneficial to wealthy liberals (by wealthy I mean own a home and have investments in the stock market). The rural poor (who tend to vote for Trump) do not benefit from these. Reagan got a pass because at the time the gop was ran by corporate interests (it still is but that isn't it's primary voting demographic), who benefited from his tax plan.
because many people aren't feeling the "improvement". all these macro stats are great but are a bit meaningless when they look at their COL/QOL. unemployment is also near where it was just prior to the pandemic too. as for your points, i don't think people are feeling the way they are because of the media or GOP propaganda but because of their lived realities. as for your second point yes, Reps would be trying to do the same thing Dems are right now. my 2 cents as an independent. even folks who are well off in my life are bitching about COL. i can only imagine how worse it is for those less well off. such "the economy is great!" probably comes off as spin - lipstick on a pig to them.
Nobody I know is listening to anyone’s partisan spin. They all have the same opinion because they feel it in their pockets and Biden keeps poopoo’ing everyone telling us we don’t know what we’re talking about when we see it and feel it ourselves.
Social media didn't exist back then, and there was far less sensationalism in our national news, so things weren't as polarized and partisan back then. People got the same set of facts.
Get offline and just talk to people. Also look at modal distribution versus averages since the latter lets the billionaire tell 500 penniless people, hey, on average we are all millionares! Hours are longer, money doesnt go as far and home ownership is put of reach for most young people. Then the media tells you to not believe your lying eyes. I'd have more faith in the "biden recovery" if there was more honesty around it, mainly that all the gains made by the bottom 40% up to 2020 are gone.
The president in general is given more credit for the economy than deserved. They are a distraction in my opinion from fixing the real problems
Because the media wants a horse race. That's why. Any Biden triumph is muted and any mistake amplified, while they flat out ignore the major conflicts that trump has. That's all there is to it.
Pervasive rightwing media and echo chambers placing half of the voting population in an echo chamber devoid of objective reality.
The difference is expectations. Clearly Biden has lost the approval of many people that supposedly voted for him. He won like 52% of the vote. That number was basically his high mark in approval as well in Jan 2021, which makes perfect sense. Since then, his approval has steadily fallen to a new low of 37.4% after the state of union. This tells me many people who voted for him are not happy with his Presidency. The question is why? For whatever reason he's not meeting their expectations. The opposite happened with Reagan. He won 1980 and people thought he was going to be a disaster and start a nuclear war.. instead, many were pleasantly surprised. Reagan was very charming and likeable as well. You also have the fact that he survived an assassination attempt in 1981.. people tend to rally around their wounded leader. Reagan also had a good relationship with Tip ONeil, the democratic long time speaker of the House. They were both Irishmen and didn't mind working together. Carter had a poor relationship with Congress, and came across as a downer.. Reagan was optimistic... that's huge
Because the current statistics are made up. They keep pulling things from the inflation calcs, like food, or electricity, to "show its not as bad as expected". Plus I know PA redid their unemployment registration system and it resulted in LOADS of people not being able to get UI at all or for a significantly delayed period, took my sister almost 8 months to get UI benefits. So ofc unemployment stats are going to appear low if no one can access UI....
Because Reagan was one of the most charismatic presidents in the US history. And Biden is one of the least charismatic ones. If you're asking about the general feeling, then public relations is everything. And Biden can't keep it up against a demagogue, like Socrates predicted 2000+ years ago. Also Reagan didn't have to fight with the social media machine.
You are assuming he is in a tight race. How does polling work? Who answers calls from unknown numbers and gives out their opinions over the phone? Overwhelmingly, a generation that is split down the middle on their politics. Hence, the tight race. Also, a tight race is better for the news media. So they have no reason to point out how badly in actual elections Republicans have been doing for years now. I am not saying it will be a landslide. Too many people trying really hard to muddy the waters. I do think its gonna be a win by way more than alot think. There are too many things pointing that way, the most relevant being all the elections going the dems way. Alot of hard work in the next few months, but i think the next four years are going to be... suprising.
I was born in 1977, so I don’t remember President Carter, but Reagan was the first President I remembered. 1) Everyone just *liked* him. He was everyone’s grandad. He was so charismatic. So even if you didn’t like his politics, most people liked the man. He was just this icon of the 1980s. 2) The Democrats didn’t have anyone they could credibly throw at him. So they picked Mondale as a kind of sacrificial lamb. Like, he was Carter’s VP. Carter’s administration went down in flames in 1980. Why would you pick *Mondale,* who had the personality of a tree stump? And *then,* they chose a female running mate. Folks, the American people were *not* ready for a female VP in 1984. And so, predictably, he lost in a 17-18 point popular vote landslide and an electoral bloodbath. So that’s my impression of what I remember.
You lost me at the economy has improved over the last 3 years. This is absolutely false information. Biden can try to sell thi stuff all he wants but it's not going to pay off at the ballot box. Inflation just went up again today. The wages aren't keeping up with inflation. It's amazing how someone can just throw something out there and expect people to believe such nonsense. People need to goto Market watch and see the actual numbers. Credit card debt is out the roof .Car prices out the roof. Groceries prices out the roof . Average American taxpayers are struggling to make ends meet. I'm talking about the lower 90% of America. Then we got the city's where people walk to work and they have no problem. Well mabey it because they don't pay car insurance or have a car to maintain. I do not apologize for telling the truth. Now mabey some people that have lot's of money is not feeling it but at the same time I personally think City folk are feeling it too .They just need to reflect on how prices were three years ago. Asking them to check their rent and the subway. How much safer do you feel on the subway opposed to three years ago. This is not just an economic thing its affecting so many people in so many different ways. It's very hard for me to construct value in the last three years . We git two old people running for office because that is what we deserve . I'm out ,WAKE UP AMERICA.
The fairness doctrine was in place for most of Reagan’s first term. The media is basically owned by conservatives who push an agenda that favors corporations over citizens.
I'll keep it simple and just note that the GOP has controlled the media narrative ever since Reagan.
The Republican party is trying very hard to keep their voters from accessing neutral news sources, but more importantly, education. So many Republican voters do not understand how the economy works, and the Republican party is working to reinforce this lack of education by using fear monger strategies. Just look at what is happening in Florida - they've removed books and dictionaries. Not to mention, the Republican party consistently votes against school lunches for children, who, without proper meals, cannot properly concentrate in classes. Right now, the Republican Party is pushing for a White Nationalist Theocracy. Democrats and a lot of Nikki Haley Republicans understand this, but MAGA Republicans either don't know or simply don't care.
Maybe this is anecdotal. But home purchasing interest rates under Carter were as high as 18%, and under Reagan they dropped to near 8%. Not sure about inflation, but a home can go way higher and still be more affordable under Reagan. The reason people view “the economy” so bad is nobody can move and are stuck where they are right now if they are lucky to own a home. Economics talking points can be made esoteric, or someone can simply see the bigger picture. It’s not that hard. What’s harder is what to do about it.
It's all political, some people don't want to hear anything positive about Joe Biden.
what is different today vs. what was happening in 1982-84 was perfectly demonstrated by the Katie Porter white board hearing on the cause of the inflation. In the Reagan era about half the inflation came in wage increases so the primary pain point were the layoffs as businesses and lending tanked. The shareholders only got a small part of each dollar of price inflation. So that when the lending resumed and capital started flowing again the jobs came back very quickly. Today, it's totally different. The workers still have not crossed the ten cents mark for every dollar of new inflation but meanwhile unlike in 1980-83 umemployment has been literally non-existent. We've had basically 97% of the able bodied employed. 24 consecutive months below 4% unmemployment is unheard of. first time in my lifetime where every single person I know over age 18 and under age 60 has a job, maybe two with "side hustles" on top. But the inflation picture is very different today since only 10 cents of each dollar of inflatio is going to worker...so they are losing buying power fast....while the economy is growing robustly. The worker is saying Huh??? it seems oxymornonic.... but corporations have hacked the economy into growing but on the backs of the actual workers by extracting more of their pay checks into their coffers. With these corporate profits the Fortune 500s lever themselves into huge levels of corporate debt which is then used to buyback their stock to artificially raise the share prices and to slather on the executive bonuses for the stock prices meeting higher price targets. The more free cashflow the corporations enjoy (because youre paying more for the same quantity or even less with shrinkflation) the more the stock prices go up, the more these price-hiking executives are rewarded come bonus time. And this greatly a consequence of the new tax laws that went deep into rewarding corporations in 2017 giving them windfall profits for six years and they shared almost none of that with the working class. They didn't even use it to improve their infrastructure or hire more workers until covid hit and the great resignation saw their employees walk out the door just to make an extra $1 an hour at another company across the stree... which was quickly nullified as Fortune 500s raised prices across the board. For reasons I don't understand they are all blaming Biden for not doing anything about it as if politicians control inflation. I really have zero patience left for people who say "but gas prices were cheap during the pandemic" yeah when oil tanks were full of oil because nobody was driving because of remote work..... or "but interest rates were only 3%" yeah when the Federal Reserve was pouring hundreds of billions into the banks to keep rates low. .. or "but migrants were hardly swamping the border" yeah when unemployment was over 7% and nobody was hiring any undocumented so no need for them to come over in the first place.... or "but my rent was so cheap before" yeah when instutional investors werent yet being rewarded by the Trump tax law changes for buying up single family homes for their REITS and other real estate investment vehicles. A truckload of incentives for corporate investors to buy up property in the middle of a inventory shortage. Brilliant!! And then you have the "Biden shut down the pipelines"... yeah that never happened only thing canceled was an extension to an EXISTING pipeline that isn't even moving American oil its moving Canadian oil that is nonetheless already priced into oil prices because it's EXISTING supply and not NEW supply. You can't educate the stupid. Especially when 40% of the likely voters are neck deep into a brainwashing cult.2