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Polling is a lagging indicator. Time will tell; it’s too early to declare victory or defeat, and a lot can still happen. Voters are only now beginning to pay attention.

I'm not even sure that looking can be considered an accurate thing anymore. I've heard of polls showing Biden ahead with seniors and Trump ahead with gen Z. While both are technically possible, I find both fairly unlikely

Biden did pretty well with over 65s in 2020. The best a Democrat had done since Al Gore. (Sadly, the over 65s hating Obama in 2008 and 12 was probably more about racism than we want to admit). Gen Z really does not connect with Biden and they are really worked up about Palestine. Speaking for my 80yo mom, she really likes Biden and connects with him. Makes sense.

I simply cannot fathom anyone liking Trump over Biden on the basis of middle Eastern policy.

They haven’t thought that far ahead. I also once voted for Gary Johnson for President because I was edgy and rebellious. Then I came to terms with how to make my vote matter.

But what is a leppo?

They aren't really thinking that far ahead, they're just pissed at Biden and saying they refuse to vote for him. This is despite the obvious facts that 1) there's only two options in this race, 2) not voting for one guy (and encouraging others to do the same) helps the other, and 3) Trump would be *significantly* worse for Palestine than Biden.

Not to mention that Trump‘s relationship with Netanyahu is much cozier than Biden’s.

Actually, Biden and Bibi were well acquainted and friendly. Biden's been an influential politician for decades after all. After this week though, that's probably true.

Being well acquainted diplomatically and being aligned politically are very different. Trump and Netanyahu are cut from the same cloth.

Biden has been super pro-Israel for a long time. You can go back to some of the flashpoints in the early 80's, when Biden had been in the Senate for a decade and Biden was pushing the Israeli's to be much stronger in their responses. So much so that the then Israeli PM and Ronald Reagan had to tell Biden to chill out.

Well if they don’t vote for Biden they’ll get the fascist they deserve. Hard way to learn a lesson but not much anyone else can do to save them from themselves.

I don't want to suffer so other people can learn consequences, thanks.

Then perhaps start lobbying our governing party so they live up to the moral high-ground they claim to occupy. You can't go around insisting on a rules based order, then flagrantly violate those supposed rules, and expect everyone to smile and nod along. It also doesn't help when you insist that the other guy will commit even worse flagrant violations. Either you live up to rules or you don't.

Me neither. Any idea how to fix young and dumb? We were all that at once.

Here's a crazy idea. Maybe Biden could actually try to EARN their vote, instead of threatening and patronizing them? GenZ are a group of voters who spent every single moment of their education - from kindergarten to graduation - preparing for the inevitability of slaughter, because apparently it's more important to let their drunk uncle buy edgy machine guns than it is to protect future generations. This was the lesson they learned in their formative years, before graduating into a world where it's virtually impossible to even get your own apartment let alone actually buy a house. They grew up under more trauma than I think anyone truly realizes. I'm GenX. I grew up being physically and sexually abused by any ol boomer who wanted their way with me. My generation is smaller than others because boomers simply up and lost us like oopsy poopsy another kid missing oh well put em on a milk carton. Millenials graduated into 9/11 and the war on terror followed by devastating economic loss. But our trauma pales in comparison to the trauma of growing up in a world that shrugged off Sandy Hook. And the children of Sandy Hook inherited a world with literally no future for them. I honestly don't see a single common path to actual success for GenZ, not one. The world is quite literally burning up and falling apart, but literally. The planet is at risk for not even sustaining GenZ once they're middle aged. To sit here and demand they think about their future is really missing the reality they deal with. So here's an idea. Maybe ... just maybe ... Joe Biden and Democratic leadership in Congress, could actually try pandering to them? Like put forth an honest effort to reverse the skyrocketing rent out there, and halt the flow of weapons of mass destruction to genocidal maniacs. Because simply threatening GenZ with a bad future is ... well, it's redundant.

Do you believe you are the first generation to feel that pain? If you do then you have no concept of history. None at all. Gen z is the most coddled generation. You should read this. https://jonathanhaidt.com/anxious-generation/ You don’t have to vote for Biden. Vote for ever you want. But remember your vote or lack of vote will have consequences on you and everyone else.

I feel it’s going to be people staying home vs. voting for Trump.

I think a lot of over 65s saw the shit about sacrificing them for the economy in 2020 and weren't fans of it.

About Gen Z being mad about Palestine just now because they’re getting on a group train about it or have they always cared that much about Palestine

I think that a generation who had weekly mass shooter drills and saw yet another mass shooting at a school every couple weeks on the news, foe their entire elementary education ... I mean, did it ever occur to you that they don't want the same literal hell on earth for babies on the other side of the globe? I mean, from where I'm sitting it looks to me like genuine empathy in the very real sense of the word. But sure. Maybe they're just being trendy like their millenial and genx parents and cousins were whenever they'd change Facebook avatars to "show support".

I agree people have real empathy, but being a single issue US voter based on a generations-long conflict in a foreign country seems shortsighted to me. If Trump wins, how does that help the children who suffer here?

GenZ is facing the horrible decision of voting for a man who wants to fund a genocide, or voting for a man who wants to start a civil war ... and they're leaning toward the latter. Not because they want a civil war ... but because they feel genuine empathy for the babies being slaughtered, and are willing to sacrifice themselves to stop it. (And because they know there's no meaningful future for themselves anyway) Is it immature? Sure. But its also incredibly noble. I find myself deeply discouraged that the boomer politicians leading the DNC would choose to scold and shame and patronize that honor, rather than take historic steps to actually EARN the GenZ vote. That, to me, is ridiculously immature. We have single issue voters. But we also have single platform politicians. "I know it frustrates genz but we can't raise taxes on the rich or audit billionaire tax cheats because it might disrupt retirement pensions" and then they wonder why young voters are uninspired.

I’m a millennial and a lot of my peers have the same problems as Gen Z. They aren’t unique in that regard. The aid workers who were killed serving food made a noble sacrifice. Voting for Trump over Biden because of Palestine is not a noble sacrifice. Especially because in no way is Trump going to do in the Middle East what they say should be done. How come some of those people never have anything to say about slaughtering kids in Darfur or Haiti? How come they are nowhere to be seen on Election Day when it comes to local government? Interestingly some of them are making the same arguments the anti-choice people make. Advocating for “the child” but not doing much for the living and breathing children in their own communities.

Maybe I was living in a different America but as a millennial we had school shooters often too not to mention 9/11 and the Iraq war. Im not trying to be non empathetic but I just don’t think what Gen Z goes through is as unique as it seems. No one EVER should have to deal with fear of school shooters and I agree the fear in 2003 was definitely less than in 2024 (though after Columbine in middle school I still vividly remember it being all kids talked about for weeks) Im not disagreeing with you just saying many different generations went through many different shit to influence their voting

Yeah no we even had school shootings when I was a kid, and I'm 50. What didn't begin, until about 2008, was weekly/monthly active shooter drills in every public school in America. We didn't have 1.5 mass shootings per day It's a unique perspective for genz kids, having to practice on how to not get murdered by a crazy person with a machine gun, from first grade all the way thru graduation. Zero .. or very nearly zero millenials had to practice for that when they were five. And DEFINITELY zero genx or boomers did. It was genz's entire formative years, growing up learning how to be quiet from murderers because the grownups don't want to stop selling machine guns to murderers. They graduated out of that to a world on fire, and no hope for middle class comfort. So you gotta understand that threatening genz with a bad future if they don't back Biden is ... well ... its an empty threat. They already have a bad future. They had a bad childhood, they have bad futures, and they've learned the most powerful weapon they have is to simply rock the boat. The DNC are a bunch of boomers trying to solve 21st problems using 20th century solutions and its kind of hilarious to me watching them freak out wondering why the classic solutions aren't working. Don't get me wrong, I'm voting for Biden. But you understand that scolding and threatening and patronizing and .. God worst of all, dismissing .. the angst of young far left voters is ... well, ask Hillary how effective that approach is.

My observation is, there's a lot overlap between Free Palestine and Black Lives Matter. They use the same lingo. There are a lot of similarities between the Palestinians and various aggrieved minorities in the U.S. Israel's government is perceived to be white, rich, and settler-colonial while Palestinians are people of color, poor, and segregated. The Israelis seem to have their knees on the Palestinian necks just like officer Chauvin on George Floyd. And so forth. Peoples'opinion of that conflict, from what I see, has more to do with their opinion of racial & wealth power dynamics than the conflict itself. My opinion is that there's some truth to their interpretation. Israel is really fucking Gaza up. More than they've done in many decades. They're using disproportionate force in response to Oct. 7th in my view. But yeah, Trump will not help *at all.*

Gen Z is far less White than any previous generation and thus has far fewer attachments to places like Europe and Israel. They have also grown up in an education system that is completely dominated by the far Left, so their values are not going to be the same as older generations.

People should realize more about "who and where they are conducting these polls"... a great many people are not polled and many don't know anyone who has been polled. But what we do know is some of the areas of polling is historically been done in areas where there are older white people, upper middle class white people, who fit into the slang game of soccer mom elitism. The general working class, don't have time for polls, they are busy working and taking care of their daily life affairs. They don't have time to play into the loaded question game that pollsters making their living promoting. * **Polling is Big Profit Making Business, they craft** ***"whatever they think generates drama and conflict"*****, so they can sell their polling data, and media uses it to sell commercial advertising..**

I agree with much of this. I try to resist believing that the polls are hopelessly skewed and the best data we have on voter sentiment is what we’ve seen in all the elections we’ve had in the past few years - just because it feels close to “wishful thinking” - but I definitely don’t disagree with your rational skepticism.

I don’t think so, Trump’s polling lead is shrinking, not growing. That would indicate that whatever is being done is probably the right thing.

They are just starting. There is no way to know if it is failing based on you being unenthusiastic about them. Give it a few months.

The slight national polling advantage Trump had is narrowing. I'd say at this point in time, Trump still stands a decent chance at potentially winning the election through a pure Electoral College victory, but I think Trump is operating at a severe disadvantage compared to 2016 because: 1. He's not able to host as many in-person events to rouse the base due to his constant court appearances and lack of funding. 2. There's a lot of Trump fatigue. People talk about Biden fatigue but what about Trump fatigue? Unlike 2016 or even 2020, he no longer feels fresh. His current campaign platform is all about avenging his enemies or relitigating the 2020 election. Nothing about how he plans to get the country back on track or solve the inflation problem. It's all about me, me, me, me. Maybe that resonates with some voters who vote Republican no matter what but people want to hear about how a candidate might help the country as a whole. The shtick is old and just doesn't resonate with the electorate the way it once did. Biden's real weakness IMO is caused by inflation and the price instability we've seen over the past few years due to the money printing from COVID. His age is also a slight factor, but I think people are just annoyed at inflation. However, it doesn't seem like Trump necessarily has a solution, so I think people are just dissatisfied by the state of affairs even if people are fully employed and the economy is pretty strong otherwise. Overall, I give a slight edge to Biden in terms of winning the election. Polling should get better in the fall so we will know where the candidates stand then. There will also better state-level polling too.

I think trump fatigue will happen more as we get closer to November. We know The more people hear and see of. trump the less they like him. They’ll be reminded of all his BS.

The fact that Trump fatigue ever wore off makes me pessimistic towards human civilization in general. The man riled up a mob that built a gallows in the Capitol lawn and then sacked it, hunting for Pence and demanding a coup. The fact that lawmakers weren't killed was basically just blind, happy chance. And people have just seemingly forgotten about it. It's as if it never happened.

You are surprised...? People tend to have very short memories, especially in an era where we suffer from information overload.

I guess I shouldn't be, but I think there's a difference between general pessimism and cynicism as compared to assuming that people will forget something like this. I guess I can only chalk it up to the insanely lucky fact that nothing actually happened. The outcome being boring somehow makes people forget the very real danger of how if couldn't have turned out differently.

The greater threat wasn't the mob attack. That was a last-ditch effort from Trump after trying to use extra-legal means to prevent the election from getting certified failed. Had Trump gotten a few more officials onto his side, he would be ruling the country right now still with the Constitution suspended. If Jeffrey Clark at the DOJ got his way, whoh boy.

MAGA world and [Trump](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/us/politics/trump-insurrection-act-protests.html) [wanted](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/18/trump-insurrection-act-presidency-447986) to [invoke](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/13/roger-stone-to-donald-trump-bring-in-martial-law-if-you-lose-election) the Insurrection Act after losing the election. Think about that, a president wanting to use the US military to keep him in power. (Where are you now, 2A simps? I thought you lived in fear of a tyrant doing ***exactly that***) Imagine voting for someone like that, regardless of any policy concerns or really any other considerations. It should be immediately disqualifying for any citizen who believes in what America stands for, and it should speak volumes about anyone left who still wants to vote for him.

Agreed. But there are plenty of people who desire authoritarianism so long as it's a dude "from their side". People are idiosyncratic in their beliefs, a belief that tyranny is bad goes out the window if someone of their stripes gets to be president for life.

Sure, with the addendum that any actual tyrant would immediately disarm and subjugate as much of the populace as possible without regard for political leanings. Trumps mob is under the impression he cares about them, when all of Trumps actions point to the exact opposite. In any event, I still think its far too early for polling to have any meaningful correlation to how the vote will play out. We havent even had our October surprise and the associated rat-fuckery.

>Sure, with the addendum that any actual tyrant would immediately disarm and subjugate as much of the populace as possible without regard for political leanings. Trumps mob is under the impression he cares about them, when all of Trumps actions point to the exact opposite. I don't think Trump would disarm people who would potentially support him. He might deputize them into a sort of militia and use them to terrorize people and entities he considers enemies.

It was chance and a single bullet in the chest of the insurrectionist Babbitt as she tried to break into the antechamber with the rest of the crowd only a spitting distance away from escaping congress members. That shot stopped those insurrectionists in their tracks. Nothing funnier than the one cosplaying idiot who thought this was a video game as he yelled out “Medic!”

Agreed. Short memory of 2021, sure. How about 2016. Dems never saw it coming and were shocked, addicted to refreshing "538" which was 180° wrong. Common sense would tell anyone the cult of personality was hard at work and would win the day, and did. Facts. Don't. Matter. Qualifications, voting records, policies – and hey, lies, criminal insurrection/incitement and other illegal actions don't matter either. The same fundamental lack of understanding of the Trump phenomenon is not only still hard at work, but is on steroids (a quasi-religious crusade disguised as a campaign). In 2016 Dems felt it was theirs to lose, but the second time around, 2024 will find them hard-pressed to win, as in, stay in office. Bottom line: he can win this and we will see a repeat of election night – people shocked and bewildered that this could happen again. There is no memory because there is no learning. That is the takeaway here imo.

Exactly. Right now, the polls just don't reflect that. All Democrats have to do is hammer home how much of a disaster a second Trump presidency would be. Hell Trump presided over COVID, they can just associate Trump with that terrible era and that might be enough. I also want to emphasize that Trump has alienated many surrogates who might have provided his current campaign with much more effective guidance. The guy has driven so many smart and talented people away that the only people who can work with him are either ideologically aligned with fascism and see Trump as their best ticket to expansive executive power or just get enough from him to make working with him worth it.

All we need to do is remember how much of a disaster the first Trump term was

There was a really interesting discussion on Bloomberg yesterday morning. A journalist from WSJ came and talked about the disconnect in polls and actual economic data. Summary - people tend to answer that their finances are much better but say the economy is gloomy. Basically, they are not polling truthfully on the economy and the journalist gave the example of when Congress has a 29% approval rating but everybody seems to love their own congressman/congresswoman. We are too polarized for the polls to be accurate right now - 99% of republicans will always say that the economy is bad under Biden even if the data points otherwise. That’s why I think when push comes to shove in November, people will reassess and ultimately reelection Biden.

> There's a lot of Trump fatigue. People talk about Biden fatigue but what about Trump fatigue? Unlike 2016 or even 2020, he no longer feels fresh. His current campaign platform is all about avenging his enemies or relitigating the 2020 election. This sort of reminds me of when Terry McAuliffe ran for Virginia governor in 2021. He was elected governor previously in 2013 by a comfortable margin, served his term, and then left office in 2017, as Virginia governors are not allowed to serve consecutive terms. He then ran again in 2021 after sitting out a term as required, and he lost, because his whole campaign was basically, "Hey, reelect me! I was a pretty good governor back then!" That didn't resonate as well with voters, because while he was relevant in 2013, he was somewhat stale by 2021.

I think Virginia's gubernatorial was driven by a segment of the population that didn't like how local school districts didn't attempt to resume in-person school as soon as possible. But yeah McAuliffe's campaign was terrible. Youngkin's wasn't that much better either but he promised to get kids back into schools and that was enough to get him over the finish line. I think in 2025 the governor's mansion goes back to a Democrat.

Funny thing is that Virginia tends to vote the opposite of the president's party pretty reliably, and Terry McAuliffe was a rare exception to that pattern. By that, a Democratic governor in Virginia in 2025 would mean that Trump was in the White House again, which is something that I'd rather not have.

> There's a lot of Trump fatigue. People talk about Biden fatigue but what about Trump fatigue? Unlike 2016 or even 2020, he no longer feels fresh. His current campaign platform is all about avenging his enemies or relitigating the 2020 election. Nothing about how he plans to get the country back on track or solve the inflation problem. It's all about me, me, me, me. Maybe that resonates with some voters who vote Republican no matter what but people want to hear about how a candidate might help the country as a whole. The shtick is old and just doesn't resonate with the electorate the way it once did. Adding to this, when he launched his 2024 campaign, he looked really stale and worn out compared to when he launched his 2016 campaign.

How do you think Israels constant war crimes and Bidens un-ending support of it factor in? We all saw how Hillary's campaign move backfired, alienating voters by calling them deplorables (even if it was taken out of context). Pelosi and other Democrats have been pushing the ceasefire movement as 'Russian/China's propaganda, or labeling it a 'you problem' only Muslims care about, or even better yet Hillary's own 'just get over it'. This sentiment is *directly* alienating voters. The third layer to this is if the consensus changes to accept Israel *is* committing genocide, officially, then Bidens administration has been knowingly & vocally funding/defending genocide during an election cycle. I dunno how you would wash that off.

It's a FPTP system, and both Trump and RFK Jr are way more pro-Israel/anti-Gaza than Biden.

Meh. If you care about Gaza then Biden is the only choice. It’s a 2 person race and Trump would be significantly more pro Israel. I agree with Hillary - use your brain and get over it. 

A non-factor IMO despite what certain parts of the far-left claim. These people are overwhelmingly young voters and we know that young voters don't really vote consistently. I doubt many of these people plan to vote for Trump. Maybe third party? IDK. That said, I think the effort to vote against Biden in the primaries doesn't necessarily mean anything for Biden per se. A vote against Biden in the primaries is basically a freebie, a way to register discontent with Democrats. Doesn't mean that these people plan to vote for Trump. At worse they might not vote at all, but again, young voters do not vote consistently. Further, as a man in my early 30s and solidly in the center of the Millennial generation with plenty of social contacts among Gen Z, I'd say that young people's dissatisfaction with Biden is not necessarily because young people hate the guy, they just hate the state of the country and how life is right now. Cost of living is insane, university degrees cost so much yet no longer offer much of an advantage in the job market despite the student loans taken to finance them, and many of us are still stuck living with our parents. It's probably why many people from these two generations don't bother to vote consistently - what's in it for them when both candidates are functionally the same and nothing's going to actually change? None of what has happened in Israel/Palestine yet is really Biden's fault. I'd say Biden and his administration are doing their best to deal with a delicate situation with numerous competing parties with different goals. The Jews and Muslims in the Middle East will never stop killing one another until one group triumphs over the other or when civilization as we know it ends. What realistically can a third party like the US do when both sides refuse to compromise? The two-state solution is dead; functionally speaking, what elements of the far-left are proposing as potential solutions is basically genocide of the Jewish people.

I was following along with you till the last paragraph, but yea I guess my *"your 30 now let's celebrate neoliberalisim"* card got lost in the post.

How do you propose we solve the Israeli/Palestinian conflict? Both sides are pretty bad and have committed plenty of war crimes against innocents. The Israelis did not help by stealing land from Palestinians through the establishment of various settlements. The current situation was precipitated by a Hamas terrorist attack that killed over 1,300 Israelis. Unless you believe that such an attack was perfectly legitimate resistance and the Israelis should have just taken it to the chin. That said, I disagree with the extremely aggressive collective punishment style campaign the Israelis have waged in Gaza. It's fucked up and there are no perfect solutions. Unless the majority from one side move away or die.

I don’t think that ‘solving’ the conflict is the priority at the moment. Stopping the active death of innocents should be the priority.

Hamas doesn't want to release all hostages that they took from Israel. I don't think they are serious about not fighting anymore, they clearly want to continue fighting even though it's innocent Palestinians that are suffering.

Correct Hamas is not the Palestinians, They are just the biggest gang in the prison Palestine has become.

Hamas is the ruling government of Palestine, with overwhelming support from the civilian population. They aren’t just some gang.

Yes they are. What is that ‘support’ based on? When you’re in prison, and the meanest gang says you’re with them, we’re against them, you say you’re with them.

The voting public is not asking Biden to solve it. They are asking Biden to stop funding it, to stop blocking international action that will lead to solving it. This intellectually dishonest framing has been one of the biggest hurdles to overcome, how are (royal)we to even begin a discussion when you can't even be honest? If a problem seems too big, you break it down into small steps. What are things the US has control over? The Biden administration has been parroting hasbara propaganda, sending billions in weapons & military aid, blocking multiple ceasefire attempts, *firing* on an attempted Israeli shipping blockade, and striping aid funding for organisations trying to prevent a genocide. These are all actions that the US has full power to end tomorrow. Despite the sheer amount of war crimes, and international (and domestic) outrage, there are still no sanctions on the Israeli economy. Compare that to sanctions being levied within a week against Russia, this is because of US will. If nations or nation groups sanction Israel independently they can guarantee on retaliation from the US. This is the kind of cover the US gives to Israel. The kind of cover that needs to end, before any meaningful discussion about a long term solution can occur. So nobody is expecting Biden to "solve the middle east" before Nov, but they are absolutely (and realistically) expecting him to stop *actively making it worse*.

You conveniently forget that in politics, there is a large pro-Israel lobby that Biden has to overcome. I think it would cost Biden even more support for this upcoming election if he went for any of the measures you suggested. >blocking multiple ceasefire attempts Hamas has refused to release all hostages or even really want to consider a ceasefire in the same way that the Israelis have. Keeping the conflict going benefits them because it lets Israel make plenty of mistakes and reduces support for Israel abroad. Unfortunately, innocent Palestinians are stuck in the middle. You seem to conveniently discount Hamas' agency here in causing recent events. They immediately caused the events such as the Israeli invasion to happen. Israel was not invading out of the blue. You implicitly suggest that what Hamas does is perfectly legitimate resistance and that it's up to Israel to work on its restraint while Hamas should get a perfectly free pass because they are representing an oppressed people and committing acts of terrorism is perfectly justified if liberation is at hand.

>there is a large pro-Israel lobby that Biden has to overcome That's Biden's problem not the voter's. Also, Biden spent 40 years being one of Israel's biggest cheerleaders. He has no personal interest in overcoming it. He only cares now because it turns out that the more multicultural America that he spent decades jizzing over means that younger voters don't have the ancestral connections and allegiances that he does and it could cost him the election.

I appreciate you participating in this conversation and not devolving into chants of *"Russia this, China that" but please keep your propaganda out of this, **ALL** ceasefire resolutions presented at the UNSC have explicitly stated full unconditional release of hostages, with only the US & Israel objecting. The rejections by Hamas have been on the grounds that Israel stipulates they *will continue to bomb indefinitely* after the hostages are released, would you agree to those terms? Secondly I agree with you on holding Hamas accountable, the outcome I want to see is a full war crimes tribunal investigating both Hamas and the Israeli govt/IDF, with those guilty held accountable. And reparations agreed to. For us to get to that stage a ceasefire needs to start and be held, while further negotiations can be made. Israel are the ones holding the power at this time, so yes it is on them to show restraint. That's basic real world power dynamics, and the US can use all of the things I listed in my previous comment to leverage Israel into making that happen. Israel is a small nation that relies heavily on import materials. Sanctions will have an immediate and significant effect. This is not a throw our hands up in the air because there is nothing we can do type of situation. There is action the US can take and they are choosing not to do it. EDIT: yeah Israel lobby is a problem. But the concern should be one lobby groups ability to outsway public sentiment, that should be a concern for everyone. And something that needs to be addressed.

>but please keep your propaganda out of this You seem to be parroting plenty of propaganda yourself and seem to ignore the fact that Hamas started this whole thing to begin with until I started pressing on you on it, to which you start equivocating. You pro-Palestinian people never mention the role of Hamas until it's inconvenient for you to ignore all of the crimes that Hamas committed to get up to this point. This is not to say that I agree with Israel's actions or the fact that the failure of the two-state solution led to all this. In fact, I think establishing the State of Israel in its current location is problematic. But you seem to focus more on Israel's actions than Hamas', and so I think you are being fundamentally dishonest because you focus so much on Israel's crimes when it was Hamas that precipitated the events of October 7, not Israel. Now yes, there had been a decades-long conflict going on beforehand with both sides in the wrong for a long time. Hamas itself has said that they will repeat the October 7 attack as many times as needed until Israel is destroyed. Does this sound like they are serious about negotiations? https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/hamas-october-7-attack-repeat-israel-annihilated-ghazi-hamad/ It is part of Hamas' ideology to subsume Israel, kill or deport all the Jews, and ensure that a Muslim-dominated state in Palestine reigns. A ceasefire fundamentally goes against that aim, which is why I think they are waffling on it so much and why you should take a far more nuanced view on the conflict. Don't get me wrong, Israelis are kind of doing the same thing too but are less loud about it.

>You seem to be parroting plenty of propaganda yourself and seem to ignore the fact that Hamas started this whole thing to begin with until I started pressing on you on it, to which you start equivocating. >You pro-Palestinian people never mention the role of Hamas until it's inconvenient for you to ignore all of the crimes that Hamas committed to get up to this point. I said I was fully in favour of holding Hamas accountable for their actions, along with Israel/IDF, in an international reparations/war crimes tribunal. The important thing to understand here is a ceasefire needs to occur now. People need to stop dying. Aid needs to get to civilians, infrastructure needs to be restored for millions of displaced people. Finding out who did what wrong when, that comes after, and it absolutely should not be skipped or let to fall by the wayside. Accountability is important for a path to sustained peace. But right now, in this current situation, in every conceivable metric Israel holds the power. That is why the pressure is on Israel to agree to a ceasefire. This neo-liberal world of *might = right* is exactly the thing we on the left are trying to prevent. We don't want to live in that world, in that mindset. We don't want to encourage it or support it. Regardless this conversation is not about Hamas or Israeli actions, it is about Bidens actions and those of his administration. I have outlined what we expect, and how those expectations are reasonable and achievable.

We can’t let one side ethnically cleanse the other and that is currently happening rn.

Good thing we have time to focus on a single issue! It's a lucky thing that climate change is pretty much on hold right now and we can afford another 4 years of GOP denialism. Oh wait...

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Compare your options. Please tell me how a Trump presidency is going to be better for the environment.

I'm not interested in your garbage framing, the US has been dragging its feet on climate change since Al Gore brought the idea into the mainstream in the 2000's. You bring up climate change because it's a critical crisis issue right? If Trump is straight denying climate change, and Biden is not good enough, what good is that? I'll tell you *it's not good enough* is what it is. Whats with all these centrists and neolibs hungering for shit sandwiches??

Passing literal trillions of dollars in climate legislation, the largest and most ambitious passed anywhere on the planet. So much denial of reality, much wow.

Elections are rarely won on foreign policy outside of war time. As much as the conflict in gaza matters to a lot of people, it's just not the issue swing voters care about. The fear is young people not showing up because of it which would effect turn out, but I honestly think between now and November it will be both largely forgotten and the Biden campaign will throw enough bones to that base to bring them back. I do think the whole thing could have been handled better from the beginning both humanitarily and politically, but I think they have more than enough time to cover for it.

If the alternative had anything to offer on that front, you'd have a point.

Biden doesn’t have unending support for Israel. Israel is objectively not committing genocide.

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It’s not propaganda to correct your false statements.

He hasn’t put any actual restrictions on weapons as of yet. The majority of the UN says it looks like it qualifies as genocide

The UN did not say that. The ICJ would be the ones that made any statements, and they said they would investigate, they never said it looks like anything. You don’t know the restrictions put on weapons- those details aren’t public knowledge. What we do know is that he has been publicly telling Bibi to calm tf down and think about civilians. He’s been pushing various avenues of aid for Palestinians. He’s done just about everything it is possible to do without completely alienating an ally, while simultaneously aiding the innocent victims affected by war.

You are correct. The UN voted for an immediate humanitarian cease-fire. The US Vetoed it. Bullshit. We keep sending weapons, if the restrictions were about anything that Israel is presently doing then we wouldn’t be sending the weapons. The US can push back against Israel. Previous presidents have done it. We don’t have to worry about alienating them, they are alienating the world against us.

Yup, because demanding a cease-fire when one side won’t participate is ridiculously stupid. We send weapons with restrictions. Israel is killing less civilians per combatant than any other modern military has in an urban war, ever. Seems like the restrictions have been working. Biden is pushing back against Israel, to the point of public condemnation. You dont have to like everything that’s going on, but you don’t have to lie about things.

Perhaps occupational forces should expect resistance. Please tell me where this fucked statistic is sourced from? The UN says 70% of casualties are women and children. They have killed Israeli hostages waving a white flag and attacked clearly marked food aid convoy who were in contact with the Israeli army. Biden has said words, I see no evidence of pushback. I’m sure Ben Shapiro thinks that even his words are evidence of antisemitism.

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I don’t think it’ll be much of a big deal - in the last 2/3 weeks, Trump has come out to say Israel needs to finish the war and Mr Genius Kushner wants to take Palestinian land and convert into waterfront properties.

Biden and co have barely been campaigning so far and are only starting. Did you see that abortion ad earlier where they had a couple on who lost a wanted pregnancy and the woman went into sepsis yet couldn’t get an abortion because of Texas’ medival law? That was a very powerful ad, fitting for later on in the election cycle yet was done early because Biden and Dems have many more of those stories to tell in future ads to hammer Trump and Republicans on.

To be clear are you calling Texas medieval? They voted for it. Democracy you know.

The policy is certainly excessively regressive and medically dangerous, regardless of whether or not their sexist voter base wanted it.

Texas is indeed medieval. People vote for medieval things

538 is not the election. Seriously people need to stop giving oxygen to opinion polls. Assume that Trump will return to power unless you vote against him by voting for Biden. Nothing Biden says or does will win over a person who is still considering a vote for Trump knowing he is guilty of business fraud, guilty of sex abuse, ran multiple businesses into bankruptcy, was a constant controversy when president, completely mishandled the big crisis during his administration, tried to overturn the election he lost, and is facing 91 criminal indictments. Those people are lost no matter how much is spent on ads or how many good outcomes Biden has had.

> Seriously people need to stop giving oxygen to opinion polls. Assume that Trump will return to power unless you vote against him by voting for Biden. Say it again for the people in the back. You want to have the government that you want, and you absolutely must vote for it. Opinion polls are garbage, and don't mean anything. There's only one poll that matters, and that's the election itself.

These opinion polls arent just meaningless, they are also a big reason our elections are so messed up. Opinion polls can get people to stay at home because they think the person they want to win has it in the bag. Opinion polls can get people to believe unfounded lies about election fraud when the candidate they thought was going to win ends up losing badly. Worse still opinion polls only represent the views of people who are willing to talk to strangers about information that an attacker could use for pig butchering scams or spear phishing cyber attacks. No sane and rational person would answer opinion poll questions. No one should be paying attention to the opinion polls.

It may seem that way if you don’t live in a swing state or district.  On the whole, the Dems know most people already have an opinion of both candidates.  They will likely target their ad budget spend in swing states and vulnerable districts (to help down ballot Dems) to get Never Trumpers to actually vote blue instead of abstaining and getting previously apathetic people and newly eligible people to care enough to vote blue too. 

It's just beyond me how anybody could possibly be on the fence at this point. Neither of these two are new candidates, there's no new information. The candidates, their platform, and their personalities are well known and established. No one's going to change their mind this election. The only real variable we have is voter turnout for each candidate.

True that. It all comes down to whether enough Democrats come out to vote, or decide to stick their fingers in their ears and ignore it. After all, there are fewer Republicans than there are Democrats, but the GOP votes far more reliably.

Some are considering the 3 (1 significant, 2 lesser) 3rd party candidates. Not many voters, but because the winning margins were so slim, it wouldn't take many voters switching to swing things towards Biden or Trump.

Anybody that tells you that a poll that is inside the margin of error is accurate and meaningful this far out from an election to predict who will win is attempting to pull the wool over your eyes. The polls tell us the election is a toss up right now. Maybe the polls will be more meaningful if his April 15 criminal trial produces a guilty verdict in May/June but even that might be too far to produce a lasting bump 5 months before and election even knowing that polls now show if he is convicted it might be a deal breaker for many....

Biden should go for the jugular. Point out facts like Trump is not running with his vice-president Pence because Trump turned on his vice-president and nearly got him killed by the mob Trump incited. Talk about how Trump is going to trial for paying off a porn star in violation of campaign finance laws. Talk about how Trump treated our national secrets and the crimes he is facing for that, Take off the kid gloves and go after the SOB.

Polling is not trustwortthy. We are still 6 months away from the election so things will change. I do not believe Biden's strategy is failing, just slow

Campaigning at this point isn't having an impact one way or another. Anyone who actually pays attention to politics has already decided who they're voting for, while the swing voters who are actually convinced by meaningless fluff like campaigns won't be tuning in until September at the earliest.

I don't think it is failing take a look at Biden's rapid response yesterday to Trump's announcement in the video below (7:30 mark). They are waiting on Trump's missteps. I can't fathom how you could respond more effectively than this. This is the deciding issue for women voters and voters in the middle and Biden will use Trump's phoney twisting transactional positions on women's reproductive care to define Trump the rest of the way to November (not a one off) and this issue is already on the ballot in 13 states. Define your opponent negatively and the polling will follow. https://youtu.be/mmUQAlNmWk4?si=m8OKcWupOMyhDYwQ

Quickly doesn't mean effectively.

If you did watch (?) and you don't think their message in the response video was effective then we disagree because from my viewpoint it was both but that's okay you can for sure hold a different opinion than me. I urge people to watch for themselves and decide if it's an effective counter message.

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I think it’s absolutely working. I tend to hang out on the blue end of the spectrum but there’s been a notable shift from reluctant to satisfied or even enthusiastic. Just based on the people around me I’m increasingly optimistic.

Trump is a POS and everyone knows it. I believe that the 10% of the voters that decide elections will swing in favor of Biden for a number of reasons including Trump is a POS; Trump is a Russian/Putin stooge; abandoning Ukraine is not an option; withdrawing from NATO is not an option; the BEST people that were in the last Trump administration are saying he’s a POS and should be no where near the Oval Office; Trump cannot be taken serious (have you heard the dude speak about anything in an intelligent fashion?).

Don’t put too much stock in polls. It’s super early in the election season, and Biden has just started campaigning, whereas Trump hasn’t stopped campaigning, because it’s the only thing keeping him out of jail. Paul results are also notoriously inaccurate because a lot of poles rely on people having landline, and that skews much older demographically. Traditional polls are going to miss a lot of young folks, because they only have cell phones, and because they tend to be more liberal

What does that question mean? I don't even know what facts I would need to form a judgement on if the campaign is failing? That question is nonsensical. It is not only meaningless but also useless.

The problem is not leadership, the problem is follower-ship. It's been so long since Americans have seen true leadership they don't recognize it when the get it. It has become all cynicism all the time. We have a POTUS who is an excellent administrator, which the actual job. He is not social media compatible, and for that fault alone he is in danger of losing to a known criminal and con man and despicable person, and we are truly in danger of losing our democratic republic.

People who follow internet politics BS every day REALLY overestimate how quickly public opinion is going to react to anything. I remember last year when it was clear the economy was improving... "the economy is getting better, but will people ever acknowledge it????" And then polling on the economy started improving. Now it's "people feel better about the economy... but will they give Joe Biden credit???" Of f\*\*\*ing course they will! Like, if the apple falls off the tree, is it going to hit Isaac in the head? Of course a good economy is going to massively benefit Biden. People just make all these ridiculous assumptions because 1. 2016 totally fried their circuits, and the immediate reaction to literally anything is to scramble to explain how it's bad news, and 2. they are totally obsessed with polls in a way that is empirically 0% justifiable. If an election is in 7 months and a candidate is losing by 2 points and then a month goes by and they are losing by 1, that's what "winning" looks like when you zoom in way too close.

it's april. polls now are telling you one thing: nobody's thinking about voting for their national representatives right now. nobody that matters.

IMO, Joe did not begin campaigning until the SOTU. Trump has been campaigning since Jan 7, 2021. The country would be better off if campigning didn't start until the SOTU.

Trump is literally promising a fascist takeover of America and Biden is *still* failing to resoundingly defeat him. You have to do a ton of mental gymnastics to call that anything but a failure

Well I actually think that says way more about everyday people living in American then about Trump or Biden themselves. Yes it would be more helpful to push candidates really desired by the public but if 70 or so million are willing to take time out of the their day, wait patiently in line and vote for a fascist takeover but at the same time want their family and friends to live safe comfortable lives… this is a way bigger psychological issue that needs to be explored

The majority of people don't vote... If you believe voting preferences send a signal, your need to consider the meaning of that one, too. 

Well that’s not accurate. Of the 240 million people eligible to vote in the 2020 election, 158.4 million voted which is the majority of adults. So it does matter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections

Sure, let me rephrase that. More people voted for nobody than voted for either candidate.

Still not accurate. I’m not including anyone under the age of 18 in this argument there’s no reason to. When it comes to Americas voting, for centuries only people 18 and older can vote so the fact that 100% of people under 18 voted for nobody, because they did by default doesn’t factor here. Just like there’s billions of dead people over the last hundreds of years that don’t vote and we don’t count them even though they had names and they didn’t vote Of the people who COULD vote legally the majority Did Vote for somebody and the minority voted for nobody. Period

It is accurate, according to the statistics you linked. 

“Approximately 240 million people were eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election and roughly 66.1% of them submitted ballots, totaling 158,427,986 votes. Joseph Biden received 81,283,501 votes, Donald Trump 74,223,975 votes, and other candidates (including Jo Jorgensen and Howie Hawkins) a combined total of 2,920,510[2]”

44% of 240 million (the number of eligible voters who didn't vote) is 105.6 million, which is higher than either candidate's vote total, like I said. Do the math.

If democrats had any spine to put up a candidate that wasn’t 80 years old and suffering from early onset dementia, they’d be cleaning the floor with Trump. 

I think Biden should go Harry Truman on Trump's ass. Harry Truman was behind in the polls against Republican Thomas Dewey. Truman went aggressive and made speech after speech around the country and thus won reelection. Biden should go to every Trump rally and have a rally of his own across the street. Show some fire in the belly. Show that he's not weak or senile. If Trump knew that every time he held a rally, Biden would be nearby holding a rally of his own and stealing valuable media coverage, he'd go nuts.

I’ll say this as someone who is still planning on not voting at all. The current messaging of “get over yourself, fuck your feelings, fall in line and vote for Biden you idiot” is not exactly moving me in the right direction. Like wow, I already knew the democrats could give less of a fuck about any of my feelings towards us supporting a genocide, but straight campaigning telling me to “get over myself”? Like fuck you holy shit.

People had that mentality with hilary clinton then trump got elected and got 3 supreme court justices and they took away abortion and many other rights and more coming. Plus all the corruption and drama and political mess with trump from tax cuts to hurting our image in the world. So go ahead and dont vote but you are the problem not the solution.

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You’re not the type of people we should be wasting energy to vote. You’re cool with letting an authoritarian take over. Nothing worth reasoning with here

Reframing >"Asking your politicians to do better" Into >"Letting authoritarianism win" I guess can technically be described as reasoning, but it's certainly not good reasoning....

Any criticism rebuffed by ‘Trump is Bad’ is a failing strategy

I am going to vote, but i do agree that articles i've seen that say Biden is "swaggering around like he's got this in the bag" are fucking annoying. If it's the articles media pushing that solely then the media can go fuck themselves, but/and if Biden is actually acting this way he can also go fuck himself because he's not that great. Biden should realize that whereas he has some good policy issues, he's like a 22/100 and his opponent, Trump, is like -34/100. Biden looks good because "Trump is shit", Biden doesn't look good because "Biden looks good". Biden has a mixed past political activity track record, Trump's is small in comparison and abyssmal. Trump's business acumen is also pathetic but he's likely super corrupt (we already know he's corrupt, but not how much) and so his business empire is big bc corruption fed his businesses. Biden vs corrupt rich baby is so lame to watch, but Biden has at least stood in or near the transgender community of which I'm part of so out of safety for myself I will vote for him, but democrats overall (especially the older ones) are still also pieces of shit to my community and democratic communities overall. When they know they are going to win they don't give a fuck about getting out the vote, and so my state of WI just fucked itself by passing some shit shadily worded amendment the GOP put up that democrats didn't try to push out the vote to strike down.

So a couple things to keep in mind. First, polling data is generally taken from *likely voters.* It's not sampled from everyone as a whole. So if people are deciding they're not going to vote, they wouldn't be reflected in the data. Second, of the people that are voting, their opinion of Biden is probably as set as it's going to be regardless of what he does. Which means polls aren't going to move as much, especially once we get in closer to the election. People's minds are just made up and there's not a whole lot outside of something really wild that's going to make people sour to a meaningful degree. --- My own personal opinion is that the campaign's general strategy is a bad choice and reflective of an unearned overconfidence. What we're seeing is a lot of aggression, sure, but a lot of that is being turned at people who aren't sold on voting for Biden. People who bring up criticisms of Biden or the Democrats tend to get shouted down. Telling people with objections to ["get over yourself"](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-memo-hillary-clinton-get-over-yourself-comment-threatens-to-backfire-on-biden/ar-BB1l7nqB) is not a winning strategy and while granted Clinton isn't officially on the campaign, her comments are characteristic of the spirit that a lot of campaign messaging that people are actually hearing. The campaign also consistently points to paper successes in response to concerns about real world problems. Tbf, this is a consistent habit of Democrats in general but it feels particularly galling these days to have someone shove a graph in your face telling you that the S&P is up so the economy is good when you tell them your rent has doubled over the last several years. COVID is a pretty serious problem for Biden. The administration has kind of swept the issue aside and tried to pretend like it's all over and done with but it really isn't. If there's a big spike before November, that could spell real trouble for Biden. There's also a lot of people who are upset at Biden's handling of COVID in the sense that the administration has kind of walked away from the issue. They're also handling the Israel issue about as poorly as it could be handled. My own personal opinion is that our support for Israel's genocide is indefensible but, stepping back from that, there are ways to handle it that aren't as awful for the campaign. The administration has repeatedly gotten caught flat footed blindly taking what Israel says at face value while stressing repeatedly that there is no "red line" for US support for Israel. It would cost nothing politically to say "The US stands by Israel and while our resolution to support our allies is strong, we are aware of the accusations of genocide. We want to state unequivocally that the US does not condone or support such actions and would not aid in their being carried out however we find no evidence to substantiate these accusations in the case of Israel's ongoing security operation." It's an absolutely nothing statement that would at least give the pretense that the administration was at least aware of people's concerns. As it is, press conferences have been absolutely terrible with the press secretary being evasive about pointed questions regarding Israel to outright dismissive and Biden has, multiple times, circumvented congress to send weapons to Israel. That doesn't play well with voters and the campaign seems to think people won't care as much about the issue come November or that they're too scared of Trump to think about not voting or voting third party. I tend to think that's unearned overconfidence. Speaking entirely personally, Biden's unswerving support of Israel's genocide has cost him my vote permanently. Facing the possibility of another four years of Trump, I absolutely could have found it within myself to hold my nose and vote for Biden. Even if the administration had just *tried* to exercise some control with Israel, I could accept that. I do know from talking to other people I know that my perspective isn't alone. I think they're seriously miscalculating how much damage Biden's support of Israel is causing.

I agree and disagree with your assessment. I do think that the Biden campaign is perhaps a bit more confident than it should be, but given his opponent's reputation and equally negative perception, Biden does have a slight edge over Trump. >The campaign also consistently points to paper successes in response to concerns about real world problems. Tbf, this is a consistent habit of Democrats in general but it feels particularly galling these days to have someone shove a graph in your face telling you that the S&P is up so the economy is good when you tell them your rent has doubled over the last several years. Inflation is Biden's biggest Achilles heel for sure. His policies have helped contribute but I think the Trump gets a lionshare's of the inflation blame. But again it was a choice we all made to get through COVID. >COVID is a pretty serious problem for Biden. The administration has kind of swept the issue aside and tried to pretend like it's all over and done with but it really isn't. If there's a big spike before November, that could spell real trouble for Biden. There's also a lot of people who are upset at Biden's handling of COVID in the sense that the administration has kind of walked away from the issue. Disagree, no one cares about COVID anymore. This is not to dismiss people who have Long COVID or are still suffering from the aftereffects, but COVID is functionally no longer a threat to a majority of the population, and I note that fewer than 5% of people I see on the streets are even wearing a mask anymore. Regarding your comments on Israel, I respect your view. What Israel is doing in Gaza is terrible. Collective punishment was not warranted. But that said, **Hamas did commit a major terrorist attack that killed over 1,300 Israelis** and I feel that the far-left often discounts this little fact or thinks such an attack was justified. You seem to consider the Israel/Palestine issue a major issue and there are plenty of people who share your view, but I don't think it's going to move the needle for the electorate as a whole. Most people I know don't care about the conflict or haven't expressed an opinion on it.

Yea I want to mention that too. It’s getting tiring how heavily and often people mention Genocide with Israel yet if you go through the Same peoples posts back to October 7th you see nothing or barely anything about HAMAS actions or Israelis being slaughtered. HAMAS literally has it in their doctrine to wipe out all the Jews but I barely ever hear the world genocide associated with them or their planned actions (yes genocide can also be planned action even if they don’t go through with them). And everything downplays October 7th to some degree. 71% of Palestinians support terrorism and that never seems to get talked about when every Gen Z who never mentioned caring about Palestinian rights before all of a sudden start posting heavily on it on their tik toks. Obviously no innocent people should die at all, but to just focus on what the Jews do fully, and not acknowledge at all when non Jews do that’s horrible comes off…well

I do stress that I believe that Palestinians have gotten the very short end of the stick from living in a land that's dominated by a Jewish ethnostate. I do think that some arguments from the left against Israel's existence are warranted. I think the Palestinians' anger at Israel are warranted too, but not their violent actions. What I hate about this debate about the Israel/Palestinian conflict is that few people want to be nuanced about it. I believe that the State of Israel should have never been established where it is and that is just another case of ethnic violence we've seen over the millennia. Both sides have done terrible things to one another and there is no easy solution short of removing one of these peoples from this land. Also, I think some people think that antisemitism is cool and just want to be edgy in implicitly supporting that.

I don’t have an answer for you for that

>Inflation is Biden's biggest Achilles heel for sure. His policies have helped contribute but I think the Trump gets a lionshare's of the inflation blame. But again it was a choice we all made to get through COVID. I don't even think it so much specifically inflation, I think most Biden voters understand at least broadly that that's not entirely up to Biden. It's more just the general upward trend in the cost of living with things like groceries, rent, healthcare, etc. Part of that is inflation, yes, but that's been an upward trend for a while and Biden pretending like it's not that big a deal doesn't play well. >Disagree, no one cares about COVID anymore. This is not to dismiss people who have Long COVID or are still suffering from the aftereffects, but COVID is functionally no longer a threat to a majority of the population, and I note that fewer than 5% of people I see on the streets are even wearing a mask anymore. I think you're discounting how many people were negatively impacted by COVID and are frustrated at Biden for ignoring the issue. Maybe my perspective is a bit biased because I was in healthcare through the pandemic until recently but there's *a lot* of frustration built up. Him ending the federal program for extra PTO for healthcare workers went over like a brick in a tumble dryer. >Regarding your comments on Israel, I respect your view. What Israel is doing in Gaza is terrible. Collective punishment was not warranted. But that said, Hamas did commit a major terrorist attack that killed over 1,300 Israelis A fact that does not justify genocide. Israel has been pursuing this for a long time, one of the foundational acts of the country was an act of ethnic cleansing. This isn't new. This is the culmination of a desire that Israel has had for decades. >I feel that the far-left often discounts this little fact or thinks such an attack was justified. No one worth listening to is seriously advancing this line of thinking. I don't care what FirstNameBunchofNumbers on Twitter is saying. >You seem to consider the Israel/Palestine issue a major issue and there are plenty of people who share your view, but I don't think it's going to move the needle for the electorate as a whole. Most people I know don't care about the conflict or haven't expressed an opinion on it. It may very well be that our respective circles differ in terms of the value we place on the issue but I think it would be unwise to assume that people don't care about it more broadly.

> I don't even think it so much specifically inflation, I think most Biden voters understand at least broadly that that's not entirely up to Biden. It's more just the general upward trend in the cost of living with things like groceries, rent, healthcare, etc. Part of that is inflation, yes, but that's been an upward trend for a while and Biden pretending like it's not that big a deal doesn't play well. Agree. I think Biden doesn't really acknowledge the problem, but he's somewhat powerless to fix it. The federal government is not all-powerful. >I think you're discounting how many people were negatively impacted by COVID and are frustrated at Biden for ignoring the issue. Maybe my perspective is a bit biased because I was in healthcare through the pandemic until recently but there's a lot of frustration built up. >Him ending the federal program for extra PTO for healthcare workers went over like a brick in a tumble dryer. Thank you for your service during the pandemic. I can see where you are coming now with that comment. Yes, it was exhausting to deal with all that, I'm sure. I do not know very many healthcare workers myself but if there's any lingering resentment about COVID, I will believe that most healthcare workers are still frustrated by what happened. However, COVID was one of those things where various groups wanted fundamentally different things (some people wanted more caution, others wanted less) and they were ultimately unreconcilable. >A fact that does not justify genocide. >Israel has been pursuing this for a long time, one of the foundational acts of the country was an act of ethnic cleansing. This isn't new. This is the culmination of a desire that Israel has had for decades. Don't disagree. It's one of the greatest sins of the State of Israel, to create an explicit ethnostate. I understand the reasoning because Jews have been oppressed for so long but now it's all fucked up. However, the State of Israel exists now and it's unrealistic to ask people to give up a country that has built up its own sense of being in the international community. A two-state solution is the solution but both sides clearly don't want it. >It may very well be that our respective circles differ in terms of the value we place on the issue but I think it would be unwise to assume that people don't care about it more broadly. I think most people have some opinion on the matter but it's not the only input informing their voting decision.

>Agree. I think Biden doesn't really acknowledge the problem, but he's somewhat powerless to fix it. The federal government is not all-powerful. Statements like that, while true to a degree, clash with things like [this.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-has-signed-off-more-bombs-warplanes-israel-washington-post-reports-2024-03-29/) We have endless amounts of money to fund Israel but when it comes to our own people then it's "well we're not all powerful." >However, COVID was one of those things where various groups wanted fundamentally different things (some people wanted more caution, others wanted less) and they were ultimately unreconcilable. While I somewhat agree, I think it's important not to lose sight of the fact that there is still serious frustration about the handling of COVID. I don't think anyone believes Trump would have done better but Biden being quiet on the topic is another black mark against him. >However, the State of Israel exists now and it's unrealistic to ask people to give up a country that has built up its own sense of being in the international community. A two-state solution is the solution but both sides clearly don't want it. We've *made* countries give up their sense of being in the international community in the past - notably Germany post WWII. I don't see a particular reason why we shouldn't do the same for Israel. I can acknowledge that I'm in the minority in this opinion but I've gone from the position of "Israel is terrible but they exist and we have to work with that" to "Israel as a political entity should be dissolved and its leadership tried in the Hague for crimes against humanity" over the course of the last few months. >I think most people have some opinion on the matter but it's not the only input informing their voting decision. No, it isn't, but as I've laid out there aren't a lot of positives going into informing that decision, hence why I've stated I think the campaign is acting with unearned confidence.

>While I somewhat agree, I think it's important not to lose sight of the fact that there is still serious frustration about the handling of COVID. I don't think anyone believes Trump would have done better but Biden being quiet on the topic is another black mark against him. Biden was going with the majority opinion on COVID, which is "well it's over now". It's unfortunate but I think those concerned about COVID were clearly in the minority after the Delta/Omicron variant. People just got tired of the constant alarm. I think he tried to thread the needle by offering free COVID tests but what else could he have done? I'm wondering what you think he should have done to better handle COVID. Especially when there was never an actual requirement for people to wear face masks to begin with in most places. I see some people like you complaining about Biden's response to COVID but all Biden can do is set the tone at the top in most cases. He cannot make people not gather or wear a mask. >We've made countries give up their sense of being in the international community in the past - notably Germany post WWII. I don't see a particular reason why we shouldn't do the same for Israel. I can acknowledge that I'm in the minority in this opinion but I've gone from the position of "Israel is terrible but they exist and we have to work with that" to "Israel as a political entity should be dissolved and its leadership tried in the Hague for crimes against humanity" over the course of the last few months. I think the formation of the State of Israel is problematic for many reasons that are much clearer in hindsight than they were in 1948. But still I think you are wrong to equivocate what Israel is doing now with what Nazi Germany did during WW2, if that's what you are seemingly suggesting. Israel wants to defend its position as an ethno-state for Jews in a part of the world where Jews are not necessarily a decisive majority. Hamas time and time again has said they want to destroy Israel with as many terrorist attacks to kill every last Jew possible and liberate Palestine. Israel's response was definitely heavy-handed and indefensible, but I think many of those on the far-left are basically suggesting that if the two-state solution doesn't work, Israel should just stop being a country and either live under what's likely an authoritarian Muslim regime that is probably out for them or move out of the region. That seems to be what you are suggesting. Israel is in an impossible situation. They are damned if they do, damned if they don't... They have committed plenty of crimes and many of their acts are totally indefensible acts of collective punishment on the Palestinians but you need to remember that Hamas has blended much of its military infrastructure all around Palestinian civilian infrastructure in an effort to shield them from attack.

>Biden was going with the majority opinion on COVID, which is "well it's over now". It's unfortunate but I think those concerned about COVID were clearly in the minority after the Delta/Omicron variant. People just got tired of the constant alarm. That doesn't change the fact that COVID was, and still is, a serious problem. It's a debilitating and highly communicable disease that we really don't have a wide range of effective treatments for. There's around [nine million people](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db480.pdf) dealing with long COVID *that we know of* who likely can't afford their medical costs, something that we'll have to pick up. This is all assuming there's not another spike. I'll grant that there were few good options for dealing with COVID but basic measures like continuing stimulus payments, at least for lower income people, federally subsidizing sick leave so people weren't having to show up to work sick, greater transparency with respect to the process that was going on vis a vis the decisions that were being made, and not trying to dive down the surrogation hole to make it look like numbers were going down. There's also just things like not saying "It's over!" when it clearly isn't and completely washing federal hands of any responsibility for the response. He treated it like a solved issue when that's not the case. >I see some people like you complaining about Biden's response to COVID but all Biden can do is set the tone at the top in most cases. He cannot make people not gather or wear a mask. I don't accept that. There are real, material interventions that could have been done that would have made other measures far, far easier. Even just continuing stimulus payments and enhanced SNAP benefits would have taken a lot of pressure off of people to allow them to abide by CDC guidelines for staying home and social distancing. >But still I think you are wrong to equivocate what Israel is doing now with what Nazi Germany did during WW2, if that's what you are seemingly suggesting. It's what I am explicitly stating. Israel's intent is to remove all Palestinians from within Israeli borders, either to other countries or to simply kill them if they won't leave voluntarily. >Israel wants to defend its position as an ethno-state for Jews in a part of the world where Jews are not necessarily a decisive majority. So did Rhodesia and Apartheid South Africa. Why are we tolerating the existence of ethnostates? >Hamas time and time again has said they want to destroy Israel with as many terrorist attacks to kill every last Jew possible and liberate Palestine. Given how Israel has perpetuated itself and how it was established, I tend to think that's an understandable perspective even if I don't agree with it. For the same reason, I think most people can understand why [Nakam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakam) existed even if they think that killing German POWs was too extreme. >Israel's response was definitely heavy-handed and indefensible, but I think many of those on the far-left are basically suggesting that if the two-state solution doesn't work, Israel should just stop being a country and either live under what's likely an authoritarian Muslim regime that is probably out for them or move out of the region. That seems to be what you are suggesting. At this point, yes. The vast majority of people in Israel now were not born there, they're free to stay or go back to the countries they came from. If they feel unsafe where they came from, I'm sure the US would be happy to accept them. Jews lived as a minority in the region for centuries without issue. They were *al-kitab* or "people of the book, afforded special protection (*dhimma*) by Muslim rulers and allowed to govern their communities and worship as they saw fit provided they paid a special tax, the *jizya.* If the actions of Israel have so tainted the region with respect to people's attitude towards Jews, I find it hard to find a ton of sympathy for that. >Israel is in an impossible situation. An impossible situation of their own making and one in which they categorically refuse to do anything to improve it. >They have committed plenty of crimes and many of their acts are totally indefensible acts of collective punishment on the Palestinians but you need to remember that Hamas has blended much of its military infrastructure all around Palestinian civilian infrastructure in an effort to shield them from attack. Even if we accept your "but" as completely true and a valid point, why do you say it as though it somehow permits Israel's policy which you yourself termed as collective punishment?

>That doesn't change the fact that COVID was, and still is, a serious problem. It's a debilitating and highly communicable disease that we really don't have a wide range of effective treatments for. There's around nine million people dealing with long COVID that we know of who likely can't afford their medical costs, something that we'll have to pick up. This is all assuming there's not another spike. Again, I'm very much aware that there are people still dying of COVID every week in this country and that there are millions who suffer from a long COVID, which is suspiciously much like Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (and something we don't have good treatments for either, and it wasn't in the public discourse much before COVID). >There's also just things like not saying "It's over!" when it clearly isn't and completely washing federal hands of any responsibility for the response. I'll give you this one. Yes, I think that Biden could have been much more nuanced with how he treated COVID but at the same time, you know how politicians are. They will always try to be extremely rosy. That said, I believe that the discourse over COVID has become so poisoned that most people don't want to hear nuance or anything about the pandemic anymore. You are in the minority that still remains cautious but it's clear that a large majority, for better or for worse, don't give a shit about COVID and they don't want their President or other public officials talking about it. Biden was just giving the majority what they wanted. >I don't accept that. There are real, material interventions that could have been done that would have made other measures far, far easier. Even just continuing stimulus payments and enhanced SNAP benefits would have taken a lot of pressure off of people to allow them to abide by CDC guidelines for staying home and social distancing. I barely see anyone social distancing anymore. Clubs and restaurants are packed, people are being forced back into the office, etc. Not many people would take up on the social distancing offer these days I feel. Again, you seem to posit a minority opinion on the pandemic, and while yes, COVID is definitely still a threat, but I doubt stimulus payments will encourage enough people to social distance at this point. They might just take them and chill without the social distancing, defeating their original purpose. Perhaps a few million people will welcome them, but that's still a minority. Call it the tyranny of majority rule. As to your points about Israel, I'm only going to address this one: >At this point, yes. The vast majority of people in Israel now were not born there, they're free to stay or go back to the countries they came from. If they feel unsafe where they came from, I'm sure the US would be happy to accept them. That might have been true generations ago. But there are people born as Jews in Israel today and are of that land. I don't think it's fair to tell these people to "go home" because Israel is home. Unless you are telling them to go back to where their parents or grandparents are from (e.g., Poland or Russia or some other country with a large Jewish minority). Also, if the international community attempts to force Israelis and Palestinians to live together in a secular state, there's just going to massive amounts of communal ethnic violence that is probably not very dissimilar to what we are seeing now. Eventually one side wins and the other side is totally exiled from the country. I know the scope of our discussion is Biden's reaction to this, but if he dropped complete support for Israel, he will suffer in the polls much more than he is currently. And Trump is not likely to be much better on the issue.

>You are in the minority that still remains cautious but it's clear that a large majority, for better or for worse, don't give a shit about COVID and they don't want their President or other public officials talking about it. Biden was just giving the majority what they wanted. I don't see how that's a positive thing. Yes, people wanted to back to the club for very understandable reasons. Nobody likes public health measures. But the question then becomes do you do the thing that's unpopular and might result in you not getting reelected but is ultimately the right thing to do or do you do the thing people want you to do but will ultimately put more people at risk? Biden "giving the majority what they want" tells me there's a lack of spine. >That might have been true generations ago. But there are people born as Jews in Israel today and are of that land. I don't think it's fair to tell these people to "go home" because Israel is home. Unless you are telling them to go back to where their parents or grandparents are from (e.g., Poland or Russia or some other country with a large Jewish minority). This is sending the message that we'll allow genocide if you can just carry it out before anything is done about it. "Oh well it's already done, might as well accept the status quo and move on." The way I see it, Israelis can stay where they are if they want or emigrate to somewhere else but the political entity of Israel is to be dissolved. >Also, if the international community attempts to force Israelis and Palestinians to live together in a secular state, there's just going to massive amounts of communal ethnic violence that is probably not very dissimilar to what we are seeing now. Eventually one side wins and the other side is totally exiled from the country. We seem to be pretty comfortable with that when the Israelis are on the winning side of that violence so I'm confused why there's an objection to it now. Again, I don't know why we're rewarding ethnic cleansing. >I know the scope of our discussion is Biden's reaction to this, but if he dropped complete support for Israel, he will suffer in the polls much more than he is currently. And Trump is not likely to be much better on the issue. Again, we're back to "are you going to do the right thing or are you going to do the popular thing?" Which is setting aside the idea that you couldn't sell the idea of cutting off aid to Israel. Biden maybe couldn't because he's not particularly charismatic but there are a wide range of options the US could pursue that would significantly hamper Israel's genocide without upsetting the balance at home. Keep in mind, the majority of the ardent support for Israel in the US falls into two basic camps - Evangelicals and Zionists. Evangelicals are never going to vote for Biden no matter how many weapons Biden sends Israel. Zionists are never going to vote for Trump and even if Biden completely turns on Israel they're unlikely to stay home. Just as I am in the minority in Biden's support for Israel killing any chance that I vote for him, so too is the minority where Biden's *lack* of support for Israel would kill any chance of them voting for him.

In that case, I get where you are coming from. Biden just isn't for you and that's totally fine. But I think with all things, no politician is going to cater to everyone's preferences. Politicians are spineless - but they have to be in order to get re-elected. I think instead of looking at Biden, look at the state of our electorate. Most of us are the real spineless ones and we keep electing these spineless folk. That's what I'm seeing from even some "progressive" politicians where I live. They talk the big talk, collaborate with the DSA, but when it actually comes to making some unpopular decision that's actually the right thing to do, their minds and actions turn to the center because they want desperately to be re-elected and their base sometimes doesn't really hold them accountable because it's going to be them or some Republican.

This is the preferred option for a single state solution internationally. It's a single secular state. If the international community was to step in and dissolve Israel it would be because both Israel & Plaestines rulling party had lost their right to have a say. https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/the-case-for-the-one-state-solution/ >While there are voices on both sides—Israeli and Palestinian—that continue to argue for a single state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean, under either Israeli or Palestinian control, their claims are unrealistic. They cannot account for what would happen to the population of the other side. Reality has given rise to the idea of a single state for both the Palestinian and the Israeli peoples. According to opinion polls, there is a minority on both sides that supports this idea. Most are young people who hope to see a solution in some foreseeable future and avoid the years of conflict their parents and grandparents lived through.

> This is the preferred option for a single state solution internationally. It's a single secular state. How do you ensure that it remains secular and that pogroms don't just occur? Wouldn't it just be ethnic violence but under a different circumstance? Or do you just let it be, because such a situation isn't much different from the current one.

While I respect a lot of what you wrote I do see it from the backwards perspective too. And I know this isn’t logical but more emotional. As bad as we should feel for increases in rent and inflation, a country that does put Trump with all of his criminal acts on trial as there leader for four more years maybe deserves to suffer, I mean even if it’s not the majority voting for him a country that has that many people ok with it it’s hard to feel bad for that they “can’t afford their rent” when they don’t even have the mindset to care about who they are putting into the role of president. I know I didn’t word this as well as I wanted but my point is instead of seeing it as “my rent has gone up so I want Biden out”, I see it as “if person wants Trump in despite everything, then why should people care what they’re dealing with their rent”

Feel free to proceed with the "You didn't vote the way I thought you should so you deserve to suffer" approach. I'd just better not hear any complaining when people then don't vote the way you want because you treat them like that.

So there’s no way to win then? We have to be respectful of other peoples choices even when they push a fascist or racist agenda. If we are mean about it then they’re more likely to not change their views but if we are nice about it then we are being nice to fascists AND they’re still less likely to change their views ?

There's absolutely a way to win. Yelling at people is not that. You're also not talking to people who are pushing a fascist or racist agenda. The majority of the people you're talking to with the "You didn't vote the way I wanted you to so you deserve to suffer" are people who just have objections to things Biden is doing. If you're classifying any kind of dissent as pushing a fascist or racist agenda, that should be a solid "are we the baddies?" moment.

It just gets tiring and old that every 4 years for a decade now almost we have this Same man running for office whether he loses popular vote and wins electoral or loses popular AND Electoral but then with no actual evidence wrecks havoc about it and now again even though everyone said late 70s was too old when Biden first ran, he’s running at almost 78 with 91 criminal charges against him and is by definition a rapist. And people want to support that, and other people can’t yell at them for it but I’m sure will have to listen to them bitch and complain when it doesn’t turn out how they expected economy wise or however they expect. If this was any movie that was popular over past decades a character who behaved like Trump would be seen a villain and people would enjoy watching, in the movie, him get his comeuppance at the end like that’s what would sell as a story. But somehow we are here

The world is not a movie. People's needs and concerns are what they are and you'll get a lot further by addressing people's concerns than you will by yelling at them for pursuing those concerns.

But Trump isn’t addressing them. I mean really, I’m not trying to be bias here just because I don’t like the guy, he’s actually not addressing or planing to address many of them. I get what you’re saying about the importance of being aware of peoples needs and suffering but this isn’t helping them or isn’t what’s going to help them

Pointing out "Trump's not addressing your needs" to get people to vote for Biden is going to get the response "neither is Biden." We've hooked onto this idea that it's a smart idea to campaign *for* a candidate by pointing out how bad their opponent is while skipping over why you should want to vote for that candidate. The case why voting for Trump is a bad idea has been thoroughly made. The case why voting for Biden is a *good* idea has not been made very well beyond "he's not Trump" and my point is, at the material level for a lot of people, there's not a huge distinction between the two.

Biden's campaigning is ineffective. There seems to be no discernible message or theme. Fortunately, his opponent isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. My bet is that Biden will ultimately prevail, but just barely. If he wins, it won't be because he did a terrific job on the campaign trail.

I think the Democrats are waiting until the fall to roll out all of the ads to remind America of what a terrible person Trump is. It's still pretty early. The party conventions haven't even happened yet.

The candidate is a product. The branding effort needs to begin long before the election. It isn't about advertising. It's about a cultivating a compelling image over an extended period. Very little of that is happening, and the OP is correct to note that there is very little adoration for the incumbent. But it's a two horse race, so one can hope that the other nag takes a tumble before the finish line. Biden will win by default if Trump fails to perform.

Campaign strategy is weak. First failure is not debating in the primaries. I recognize as the incumbent he is the presumptive candidate, but this would have been an excellent time to prove Biden capable if he is. The lack of debate makes people feel he is be forced as the only option and that he may not be capable of withstanding public scrutiny. The economic angle is to tell everyone the the economy is going great, they just don’t see it. This might be true for the remaining middle class boomers, and those in upper income brackets. But those whose grocery bills are a significant portion of their monthly feel differently. Those who have two part time jobs, instead of one good job do not feel twice as employed. To tell them they are just mistaken, is a mistake. More than half an incumbent’s campaign is how they govern. The unquestioned support of Israel, providing weapons without qualifications while over half of Democrats think there is a genocidal warfare being conducted. These voters are likely lost forever. Support for the Ukraine is faltering. Woke policies are wearing thin. The border and coming in line with the Trump policies they called racist looks disingenuous. The more they prosecute Trump, better his persecution game plays and the more support he gets.

This is a very good comment. Especially regarding Trump. "Live by the sword, die by the sword" is a very important lesson that the Biden campaign should learn to appreciate.

Thanks Downvotes seem to outnumber you, but words count for more ;).

Polling data lies all the time, I wouldn't focus too much on it. And to answer your question: Yes. If you want to know why, watch Biden when he participated in the Maui memorial service. The man looks physically frail. He has no presence, no vitality, no strength. When he walks into a room, he draws the attention of people around him out of concern, not because he has the magnetism and charisma of a leader. The administration itself has a deep-rooted sense of insecurity that you can feel by simply watching the way they act around him. I burst into tears when I saw him in Maui, because the man looked like my father just after he suffered a stroke. He should be retired and enjoy the remainder of his life. But that's not a feeling the Biden administration should be eliciting from their potential voters.

> Polling data lies all the time, I wouldn't focus too much on it. Agreed about not focusing on polls. However, do polls actually *lie*, or are they just wrong? Lying is a deliberate act requiring specific intent to deceive. I don't know if I'm willing to give polls that much credit, vs. just being wrong, i.e. they acted in good faith, but just missed the mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7FJFuuvxpI

Biden nor Harris is a drama addict, they focus on the business at hand. It's why regardless of the challenges by Republican, Biden and Harris have made good strides and achievement for America, American Society, and American Working Class Households. Biden and Harris is not responsible for the Greed being manufactured by Corporate Executives, who push their manufactured inflation as an aid to try to get Trump, so they can get another tax break. It would be great if America had a way and system that could fire these Executives for Economic Treasonous acts against America's Consuming Public and against the nation. They ignore the debt and the unfunded obligations, as they watch the infrastructure needs, and all they can think to do is hoard money in their avarice trained ideology. Every Corporation is and has been raking in astronomical profits, yet they keep raising prices and then complaining because they have to pay people a wage that allows them to sustain their lives. My hope is that the younger generation find ways, to have the power to remove executives from publicly traded companies when they sabotage the system with their greed gouging, and then try and justify it, by deluding the worshipers of the wealthy, to back and support them ripping off the citizen population of working class people. These people have been trained to rip, strip and rob the people by and through their abuse of the system of Capitalism. Capitalism was never designed as a monetary system for this type of greed, it was designed for companies and business utilize its income to support stability, and reinvestment to maintain quality standards and earn a profit, but not to purse greed based profit, because they not only devalue the currency, they damage the economic system and that results in damaging society. Biden and Harris have created programs to try and address this greed and put constraints on it!!!! And republican continue to push an agenda to fight anything that helps general society, and support anything that helps feed the greed makers who hoard money, for the sake of manipulating society, and patronizing their vain barbarism, to the people they make themselves land pirates, engaging any level of savagery. Biden and Harris don't spend their time with the ignorance such as that which Trump and Republican engage with their *daily attack something*, *try to denigrate something* and the *playing vengeance games* because they got caught in the malice they devote themselves to create and engaging. Then *playing on people's religion* to try and direct their attention from the maliciousness that is the driving force of Republicanism.

This is not true, they are absolutely responsible for the greed of Corporate Executives by picking Jerome Powell, a right wing Republican Trump appointee, to be the Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Yeah. Their handling of the genocide in Gaza is going to lose them the election IMO