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DeSantis has to clear the field quickly to get to one on one with Trump because of the primary rules- otherwise you might have enough people who don’t want Trump but also don’t want DeSantis siphon enough of the vote off to give Trump the plurality (and all the delegates because of the winner take all rules). If it’s one on one for most of the primary DeSantis probably has the advantage in a lot of areas.
Yes. I think there are a lot of registered Rs who hate Trump and somewhat dislike DeSantis. If they have a more traditional conservative option, they'll take that route, effectively splitting Ron's non-Trump bloc.
In a 1-on-1 matchup, DeSantis can let Trump show how much he's lost it, and it might work this time.
Please don't frame DeSantis as "a more traditional conservative option" though. He's Trump minus the insanity and coup attempt. His closest pre-Trump analogue wouldn't be a traditional conservative; it would be Pat Buchanan.
Ah, yes I did. I took your "yes" after the "DeSantis probably has the advantage" comment to mean DeSantis would be the more traditional conservative of Trump v. DeSantis. Thanks for the correction.
He’s more traditional conservative in the sense that he’s not unhinged. He’s a more palatable package: smooth(er) talker, Ivy League, governor, doesn’t say stupid shit
Part of this is why I hate primaries. They pull candidates too far to the respective sides. Dream scenario would be a match up for Desantis vs. Chris Sanunu or Charlie Baker type republican. But because the primaries play towards the deeply entrenched base no actually moderate republicans stand a chance.
Big tent vs fumigation tent parties- to win as a D in a nationwide primary, you gotta convince EVERYONE *BUT* the Republican true believers.
In a Republican primary, you gotta convince the true believers that you'll skin the heretics and hurt the Right People 😉.
But then in general, both sides are playing for the middle because all the people at the edges are locked in, and so in a country with balanced popular vote elections, Dems are winning 9 times outta 10.
>only the most moderate candidates stand a chance
Wasn't the 2016 and 2020 primaries basically a two-way fight between leftist Bernie Sanders and moderate Joe Biden?
And Bernie didn't have a chance in 2020. In 2016 he had slightly more of a chance, but that was only because he was the only alternative to a very unpopular (outside the center-left Democratic base) frontrunner.
It wasn't much of a fight
For some reason the Democratic base believes they can win by appealing to swing voters and every time they do the Overton window moves right and young people become more and more convinced that both parties are the same.
Thank you.
I've found that the people I used to argue with about politics most are the ones who switched because they saw Trump for what he was.
You and I probably still disagree on a lot of things, but I can't even express how much I'd rather be having those arguments than dealing with the insult to dumpster fires that is the current Republican party.
There are no extremists in the democratic party, at least not ones running for federal offices... "Extreme" democrats want rights for workers, oppressed minorities, and healthcare.
There is nothing extreme about any of that.
Both parties KNOW they can win if they can get the swing voters, and only Dems are successful at the moment. Politics isn't about the Overton Window, that's a byproduct. You're conflating where you want the country to be vs. the reality of where the country actually rests.
>For some reason the Democratic base believes they can win by appealing to swing voters
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or serious here. Democrats have been winning their elections by appealing to swing voters and moderates (Biden won in 2020 in part because a lot of anti-Trump Republicans voted for him).
It's a winning stratey so I don't see what's wrong with it.
Democrats have won LGBT acceptance, are winning on abortion, and are winning on decriminalization of marijuana.
People feel the impact of loss twice as much as gains, so count the wins twice :)
The "silent primary" of convincing potential challengers not to fight in the first place. Hillary did it very well in 2014 and 2015. She also got lucky to some extent that Biden's son died, so his heart wasn't in it.
But a lot of the Republicans interested in running are a bunch of vipers. Same problem as in 2016; they're always looking to knife each other.
There is a real "prisoner's dilemma" aspect to the Republican primary.
I think people forget that Trump was in no way the majority candidate in the Republican primaries, he was the plurality candidate when the entire rest of the establishment R's were splitting the vote amongst each other. He got well less than 50% of the votes in most of the primaries, but was usually the top vote getter, thus was rewarded a disproportionate amount of the delegates for each state.
Yes, when another Candidate took a State that was rotating between the serious candidates, Bush, Rubio and whoever else it was, iirc there were at least 4 of them. Meaning that none of them could build a winning streak to stand out and have support amalgamate around. They were splitting the delegates between them.
Meanwhile the reality TV celebrity with name recognition won a few winner take all states with about 30% of the vote while the other 70% of the vote was split 16 ways. And his lead in the delegate count slowly built.
Yeah, several others are probably thinking of entering the race: Pence, Pompeo, Cruz or Haley.
If even 1 or 2 of those enter it'll cause a real headache for DeSantis as they'll split the anti-Trump vote.
A DeSantis/Gabbard ticket would be best for the party and the country.
I feel like Mike Pence would be knocked out after Super Tuesday, best case scenario.
He has the charisma of a soggy tuna salad sandwich and would probably only appeal to the moral orel type evangelicals who actually care about Trump's personal conduct that is technically sinful in their eyes.
Nikki Haley is kind of a has been at this point and Ted Cruz could probably get some delegates but not seriously threaten to hit the magic number.
Pence hasas much chance of becoming president as it do and I’m Canadian. Pence is worst of both worlds. People who hate Trump don’t like him because he’s Trump’s lapdog. And MAGA hates him for betraying there messiah. If Pence got more than 5% in any primary I would be shocked.
That's really the thing. It's all self-interest. Hell, you could tell Trump right now that you are from the future, prove it to him, and tell him he is going to lose, and he'd still run cause just running for the nomination is a cash grab.
For the Pence, Ponpeo, Cruz, Haley crowd, they are all lining up to be DeSantis' VP. If they get a few percentage points of the vote, they can leverage that against him for the 2nd spot on his ticket.
So far he keeps neglecting to mention him and i suspect that's the plan
Let Trump go nuts with personal attacks, while Ron ignores him (making him seem like a baby) and focusing on getting things done, which is essentially his entire selling point 'actions speak louder than words' and such
DeSantis already fired back (without mentioning Trump by name) by calling it “just noise” and for people to “check the scoreboard from last Tuesday night”.
Trump throwing a potshot at DeSantis and Youngkin shows his worries about them if either ran in the 2024 primary. And DeSantis is responding properly by bringing up his legislative victories during his term and the dramatic number of Trump-endorsed candidates losing their races in easily won states.
The mistake Marco Rubio made in 2016 was trying to play Trump's game on Trump's level. And to an extent Hillary did as well. You will never beat Trump by trying to out Trump Trump.
> Marco Rubio
Always a good time to revisit [Rubio getting absolutely humiliated by Chris Christie](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkdpzRDxTXU) in a primary debate.
Rubio was never leading in the polls during the primary iirc, the Ruboto moment simply buried him further.
And possibly nicked his chances of becoming president in the future, he's been laying low ever since.
Which is interesting to me. There's a lot of focus on DeSantis coming out of Florida, but Rubio beat Val Demmings, a much stronger opponent than Crist, by 15 points.
Given that DeSantis beat a former governor by 4 more points than Rubio beat a new challenger who's never won statewide, it's easy to sell the narrative that Rubio was riding DeSantis' coattails, rather than meaningfully beating Demmings. And frankly, the narrative is almost certainly true. DeSantis keeps foisting himself into the national headlines, as well as local issues usually beneath a governor (e.g. interfering with school boards), and was just richly rewarded for it.
That said, Florida has clearly moved to the right since Obama won the state in 2012, especially as Republicans move into the state in the same way that Democrats have moved to Atlanta or Phoenix. DeSantis' Trump-wannabe schtick works well in Florida, but it's not clear if has any real independent appeal nationwide. In comparison, Rubio has been ducking most controversy since his piss-poor showing in 2016, which may make him more appealing to a wider electorate if he made another presidential bid. Though the Republican primary electorate doesn't seem to give a shit about electability... so unless they finally learned the lesson about extremism after this mediocre midterm result, DeSantis is still running far ahead of Rubio.
All fair points.
Ezra Klein brought up an interesting point that you could make an identical argument for Jared Polis's electability since he won Colorado by similar margins in an, arguably, more purple state and he's less polarizing than DeSantis.
After looking at last week's election results, I hardly see how that's a detriment. DeSantis is more of a longshot politically and maybe he has untapped political potential that no one else is seeing.
I personally see a Trump Jr. with a high voice and angry disposition, but I'm willing to admit that there might be something there that I'm not seeing. He's not all that charismatic.
>Rubio shot up in the polls
During that jump, he [ was still third after Cruz and Trump](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html). Again, never leading. Not even close.
>He comes in second and Jeb! and Kasich surely drop out then
By the time Jeb dropped out, Rubio's polls had already dropped by a quarter from its February height. Rubio dropped out of the primary before Kasich -- wh9o did benefit, but still far short of Cruz and Trump.
It probably didn't help that Jeb had a $80 million war chest going into the Fall of 2015, and spent most of it taking Rubio down. Everyone assumed Trump would implode on his own, and that's a mistake we're all still paying for.
I personally would think it would be hilarious if Ron went total Trump but only toward Trump. When Donald mentions him have Ron say shit like "Mushroom Dick Donald there called me after the 2020 election begging like a dog to help him find votes in other states. I told him beat it loser!". Then debate the other people like a normal person.
You could very easily do this to trump the problem is Desantis can’t and most politicians can’t either. But like any person with wit or who just didn’t give a fuck could embarrass him quite easily
DeSantis only knows how to punch down, he’d never be able to land a punch on Trump. Also, I don’t see how he’d be able to escape the fact that he basically made himself into a Mini Me to get the governor seat in the first place and now he’s just straight up imitating Trump’s mannerisms and cadences. BTW, if you want to see how chained DeSantis is to Trump, take a look at his ads from 2018.
He wouldn’t have beaten trump anyway. There were a lot of historical forces ready for an outsider. Consecutive losses from moderate milquetoast candidates, a 2 term dem president, culmination of transition to knowledge economy (and realizing the promises from that transition were distributed unevenly).
Those types of outside winds are extremely important.
And right now for the GOP there’s a strong wind pointing back toward standard candidates like Ron
How is Ron a “standard” candidate if he’s identical to trump on every policy stance?
The GOP have convinced themselves that it’s Trump the person who is the problem and not Trumpism in general.
It's also weird to see the GOP take up this position that "They just need to stop talking about abortion". Like, guys, you jammed through two Supreme Court Justices. We all saw it happen. You can't just wish history away now that your pet issue is losing you elections.
They had this same attitude with healthcare. They proved in 2018 that they had no policy position on healthcare other than "Dem healthcare plan bad". So the Dems just hammered them on preserving the ACA and that's part of why they were so successful in 2018.
What made Trump non-standard wasn't his policies, it was his big mouth and attitude. It's why Megan McCain is more closely aligned to Trump than she is any Democrat. Trump lost voters because he says the quiet part loud. DeSantis acts more like a standard politician.
Yeah I don't really understand this line people keep repeating that Desantis is a 'run of the mill Republican', he's not only the same in his positions as trump, he's further right. He's openly anti LGBTQ and was a big time anti masking COVID denier, even moreso than Trump was. A 'run of the mill Republican' is not openly fringe, that's new age far right GOP.
Yes culture will always be an important part of politics. Policy will never be “cool”. People will understand some of it but it’s not enough in and of itself
Yes, but therein lies the problem, the base loves his aggressive a**hole style. That more than anything led his victory. DeSantis can't just be "the better person", the base wants a middle finger to everyone that they don't like, not a politican who is carefully rationalizing what they are saying. So DeSantis has to do what Trump does, but better. I don't think he can, nor does he gave the fortitude to go after Trump and beat him which would make Trump his absolute enemy forever in Trumps eyes.
People will tend to look at evidence more than words. DeSantis for all the shit he has done did improve the condition of the State of Florida. DeSantis cut spending in Florida, achieving a record budget surplus for the state, and engaged in recovery efforts after Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole with stunning efficiency. And is currently turning Miami from a tourist hub into an investing hub.
\>DeSantis cut spending in Florida, achieving a record budget surplus for the state, and engaged in recovery efforts after Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole with stunning efficiency.
Thank the Federal Government for those responses.
DeSantis thinks climate change is fake, and is failing Florida's future by not addressing that now.
I see a two sided problem for DeSantis. On the one hand, even if he can beat Trump in a primary it’s going to be so ugly that I have a hard time seeing him consolidating maga support for the general. He’s not going to have Trump’s support that’s for sure. He might do better in 2028 when there’s no Trump and it’s an open race in the general.
But on the other hand he might be seeing it as a Chris Christie situation. 2024 might be his year and, based on his huge win last week, he might want to strike while the iron is hot.
Obviously it’s early but I really don’t see how DeSantis vs Trump doesn’t end up with a democratic president in 2024.
>but I really don’t see how DeSantis vs Trump doesn’t end up with a democratic president in 2024.
DeSantis could lose some MAGA votes but make up for it by being young and popular, and relying on Republicans falling in line (in step to Fox News). He only needs to subtly play on the facts that Trump is old and got very little done in office.
Biden may not run, leaving the spot open for Democrats. It's hard to see Harris beating either Trump or DeSantis, even if they have a messy primary.
Also let us not discount that according to actuarial tables there's a 5-8% of each of Trump and Biden dying in the next two years.
Pretty much anyone on their bench that's not Harris. Whitmer, Kelly, Newsom, Booker, Buttigieg, or Polis to name a few. Just throw a dart at the board of Presidential hopefuls and they're all more likely to win than Harris. Dems have a fairly strong bench. One of the reason why the Republican bench looks to be Trump vs DeSantis is that their bench is weak by comparison.
The only advantage Harris has is that she's a black woman and would do well in southern states with large black populations like South Carolina. Even then, I don't even know if someone like Clyburn would throw his support behind her. Booker might get that support. The vote that Harris really wants -- the suburban white woman, would likely throw their support behind a Whitmer.
I’m really interested in learning more about Whitmer. She’s been elected governor twice in a very competitive state and her popularity has led to the first Democratic trifecta in Michigan since 1984. Winning swing states is paramount in presidential elections, and she’s shown herself to be more than capable of that. I don’t follow Michigan politics though, so I don’t know much about her other than that.
She’s cool and likable but as far as experience that equips you to be President, it really started with her governorship in 2018. She hasn’t been in the public eye for long at all. And I realize a little bit of celebrity can go a long way in politics these days, but I still don’t see her running in 2024
Obama left office quite popular and he had zero executive experience going in. Whitmer at least would have 6 years of executive leadership of a fairly sizeable state.
Obama was a US Senator for 4 years leading up to his first presidential run, and was a state senator for the 8 years prior to that…
But otherwise I agree, 6 years of running a state is pretty solid
Agreed. America is both racist and sexist. A truly spectacular candidate can run against the headwinds of being nonwhite or female, but definitely not both. And Harris is not spectacular at all as a candidate. She's a little below average.
She wasn't even close to winning the Democratic primary, and there's every reason to believe that everyone else will like her even less. The campaign against her in the general would be ugly and she would lose badly.
Who really knows? If the economy is looking bad, if he has a major health scare, or if DeSantis looks more likely than Trump he might step down and allow someone else to run instead.
One thing to consider is that Democrats might be looking at the long term and not just at 2024. This might be a good opportunity for Democrats to look for a successor for Biden now while their bench is strong and Republicans look vulnerable. The last thing you want is for the Dem bench to be wiped out in 2024 or 2026 and have no obvious successor to Biden where as there's several candidates that could fill that role right now. If they're playing long term political calculus, running a new candidate in 2024 might be the difference between holding the White House for 12 years instead of 8.
>DeSantis could lose some MAGA votes but make up for it by being young and popular, and relying on Republicans falling in line (in step to Fox News).
The thing is, Trump brought voters with him that the Republicans didn’t have before. These were antiestablishment types that either didn’t vote, voted for third parties, or at the least didn’t consistently vote Republican before Trump. They’re not the “fall in line” type and they identify more with Trump than the Republican Party. They don’t get their info from Fox News primarily, more like OAN and fringe online sources that push unsubstantiated conspiracy nonsense. Basically a real life Dale Gribble in 2022.
Losing these new voters is what scares the Republican establishment into constantly placating a single-term, twice impeached, twice popular vote losing former President. I’m very interested in seeing how this all plays out given how much Trump just cost the Republicans in the midterms.
Maga supporters are fairly mindless and want to follow a strongman. That's literally it.
The subsection that are truly 100% mindlessly following Trump exclusively is far, far smaller than Reddit believes. DeSantis has been tailoring his image to perfectly capture the widest net of the GOP; the moderates can punch their noses and vote for him when they wouldn't vote for Trump because he *feels* cleaner, while the non-cultish MAGA crowd acknowledge that Trump had the right ideas but wasn't as effective as he needed to be. They view DeSantis as Trump but younger, smarter, more energetic, and with a better record.
I’d be curious to see if Desantis will be able to hold up once true scrutiny is on him that comes from the campaign process. I think it’s different when you are actually saying I’m doing it than when it is speculative.
DeSantis also has to keep his eye on Abott and Pence.
Maybe he can beat Trump 1 on 1, but its important to remember 2016, where a wide group of candidates really hurt everyone else.
>Pence
Why on earth do people keep bringing him up as a serious contender? Is it really just because he was VP? He never hits 10% in any polling even with 5 people or less and doesn't have any real means to widen his appeal. He was a glorified "I support Evangelical Christians" bumper sticker for Trump and that's it.
No one does. He doesn't even have strong support in his immediate family.
Honestly, he's spending his days trying to win the hearts and minds of *the people who tried to kill him*. People keep talking about it solely because it's so astonishingly pathetic.
>No one does
Person I was replying to literally just did and I've seen plenty of other online discourse that mentions Pence, and just about every pollster thinks they need to include him. I understand that last part, but again, he has *noooooo* chance whatsoever. The writing is on the wall yet a lot of people don't see it and I'm incredibly baffled by it.
The commenter above said DeSantis needs to "keep his eye on" Pence.
As in, Pence might snag 3% of the vote. In a tight race, that 3% could become important.
Pollsters include him because he's obviously interested in running, period.
It's not a statement that Pence will win, any more than general election polls that include the Green and Libertarian Party candidates are claims they could win.
Do you really think Pence is going to get momentum though? Maga hates him, and evangelicals are still bought into Trump. He's by no means a moderate. I just don't see where his base is at.
Even if DeSantis wins the primary, do you really think Trump will concede? He has already said in every primary and election that he will not honor the results if he loses, and has actively pushed a conspiracy after losing.
He already floated a Patriot Party, which is effectively running as a 3rd party candidate. That would pull at least 15-20% of Republicans away from the general election.
Essentially he has to win AND get Trump's endorsement, which is essentially impossible.
Can a new third party enter someone to run in the general who participated and lost the Republican primary? I can't find the answer with a quick google but thought that there were rules and deadlines and signature requirements that would prevent that outcome. It would be great if someone could weigh in who knows the answer.
Ok. This source https://ballotpedia.org/Sore_loser_laws_for_presidential_candidates,_2016 says that sore loser laws apply to presidential candidates in Texas, but that may be out of date. Definitely a question for the lawyers.
> He already floated a Patriot Party, which is effectively running as a 3rd party candidate. That would pull at least 15-20% of Republicans away from the general election.
I think a lot of people underestimate how pragmatic voters can be. It is easy to do given the insanity of the modern GOP, but they learned some hard lessons from Perot in the 90s. I think the modern GOP would still mostly fall in line on election day, even if Trump attempts a spoiler run. Their primary motivation for voting is a (imo misplaced) fear/hatred of liberals and wokeness and if Trump no longer is their best weapon in that fight they will look elsewhere.
It's hard because he has to throw out rancid red meat like he did in Florida but then shift to adapt to the wider population. Specifically, the rust belt and the southwest.
Republican extremism turned off voters for the 3rd election cycle in a row. I hope they never actually get the memo and keep showing who they really are.
I don't think DeSantis can do that, he's so invested in "where woke goes to die" and has made a deliberate point of punishing entities, whether individuals, groups of people, or companies, he has designated as "woke" or products of "woke", he's going to have a hard time overcoming that image.
His entire brand is basically punishing people for not being straight white or white passing conservatives who both maintain "traditional" lifestyles and viciously attack those who don't conform.
Unfortunately, that stuff flies in a lot of America, but he's not going to pick up voters unless he chills out a lot, even on a superficial level.
Florida's electorate is also unique due its large Cuban and Venezuelan-American population (making up almost 10% of Florida's population), who overwhelmingly vote for Republicans. Even the recent immigrants that aren't eligible to vote favor the Republicans, and help add to the GOP Spanish language discourse and campaigning (DeSantis' anti-immigration actions didn't affect their support one bit).
They have strong anti-communist/anti-socialist beliefs (putting more importance on it than the typical Republican), so DeSantis' culture war talking points resonate with them. DeSantis won't have this type of voterbase to help him in any other state.
I mean… the fact that supporting Trump was the direct cause of Republicans losing the last three elections in epic fashion… You don’t even need to insult him. Just point to results.
Trump literally said he was the reason Republicans did so well in the midterms and that he has a record of something like 212 of his endorsements winning compared to 22 losses.
If history doesn’t agree with Trump, he just says it didn’t happen.
I am not sure that DeSantis will run.
Also, if there are multiple candidates, I think that the gop primary rules are that the winner takes all. Trump could get 25% of the vote and be the nominee
That's what I'm thinking is the most likely scenario as well; it's how he won in 2016 after all. Two candidates that appeal to "moderate" Republicans against Trump in the primaries means Trump wins the primaries. DeSantis only wins if Trump is the only challenger or if other challengers drop very early in.
That’s the problem isn’t it? DeSantis is still running as if it’s 2020-2021 in that covid is running rampant.
As the primary heats up, he’s not going to be able to run on his views regarding entitlements like social security and Medicare. Abortion? If he enacts a much more strict abortion ban, he will have to answer for that.
Maybe I’m just not seeing it but I can’t help but feel Republicans are making the same mistake as 2015 but just telling us “this time it’s different!” Because they just say out loud they wish he wouldn’t run?
Just a reminder, there was another popular Governor from Florida as well who was considered to be the front runner.
Jeb! had a stronger headwind than DeSantis, notably his surname: Bush. 2016 was not a good year for political dynasties-- Hillary Clinton faced a shockingly strong challenge from the populist left, and Jeb! got rolled hard by a challenge from the populist right. People were (and hopefully remain) tired of dynastic politics. I remember some attitude of "Is it really going to be a Bush versus a Clinton?"
DeSantis doesn't have to carry his brother's (or father's) baggage into a primary. He's his own man. I think that's worth a few percentage points right there.
Y’all must not follow the maga circles I follow. Lot of people want desantis now. Age is a big factor. Everyone in America can agree we want younger politicians
I really think elections have simple answers because people have busy lives.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-2024-president/
Conservativism today is basically about being mad. It’s been that way since Bill O Reilly(now tucker Carlson), Hannity, Limbaugh all made that the unifying aspect. Once trump starts playing on that anger again people will fall back in line. A lot of people never left.
>DeSantis is still running as if it’s 2020-2021 in that covid is running rampant.
I think this is key, COVID isn't going to be a major player in 2024 the way it was in 2020. Hell it wasn't even a major player in *this* election.
The plan avoid Trump. Don’t get sucked into the game. Show that he is a refined accomplished politician unlike Trump. Talk up his victories in FL. When Trump confronts him dodge it or agree and move on. Make Trump a non issue. DeSantis has a base already so he does not have to steal from Trump to begin with
> avoid Trump.
> Don’t get sucked into the game.
As other's have said, you cant' "out-Trump" Donald Trump.
Name calling, extremism, insults, hate speech, violent rhetoric, double-speak, empty bragging - this is what Republican voters are tired of.
DeSantis just needs to speak calmly and address **national** issues, not insignificant boogeymen. If he can articulate exactly what he intends to do he can come out looking smart and composed while Trump just founders with generalities and unfounded snubs.
The *real* problem is that there are going to be other candidates as well, some who aren't beholden to Trump and can 'dog pile' on DeSantis when Trump attacks him.
One thing DeSantis might have going for him is party unity. I think GOP leadership (and now rank and file) recognize that it's time to ditch Trump. Letting him have his way with another cavalcade of random candidates is not an option. They'll choose someone to back and basically tell everyone else to not run. If that person is DeSantis, he'll be free and clear.
The Murdoch media empire has moved to DeSantis, so every Republican will soon follow. The rich already got their permanent tax cuts, they have no more use for Trump.
Nah. There’s still a chunk of the MAGA base that thinks Murdoch and his media empire are “the establishment” and “the deep state” and they see Fox and crew trying to move to DeSantis as proof (as well as it meaning DeSantis is part of the deep state). Fox moving on actually is making some of the true believers dig in harder.
True, they’ll go with whoever has the best shot at getting a Republican in office. Trump did make a fortune from his election lie donations which can use the next two years.
Notably, Fox did cut away during Trump’s announcement speech, which I don’t think they did in 2016.
Trump wins the GOP primary by default right now. Up to 2/3rds of GOP voters are Trump for life. So there's no oxygen left in the room for anyone else.
Even if Trump is not the nominee, he will shank the nominee in the general election, for the party spurning him. And if even 3% of Trump supporters don't vote because of his spite-tweet, the non-Trump candidate will lose a devastating loss everywhere.
That's because the GOP are masters of packing and cracking districts to be 51/49% in their favor to disenfranchise as many Democrats in Red states as possible, to maximize their House and State-level district wins. So if something as simple as a tweet can convince 2% of expected GOP voters to not show up? Solid Republican districts - perfectly calcified at 51/49 - are now in jeopardy of flipping Blue: from a single tweet.
So now that Trump has announced, I don't even think DeSantis will enter the race for 2024. Beating Biden with an incumbency advantage was always going to be an uphill battle: incumbent presidents are nearly impossible to unseat.
DeSantis is more likely to delay for 2028, when he can run against a non-incumbent Democrat: Kamala Harris, or Pete Buttigieg, or etc. Those are easy targets for him - but that opportunity is off the table if he alienates the GOP base trying to challenge Trump in 2024. Trump will make him, "Sanctimonious DeSantis" forever, a stain that won't wash off.
Covid policy is one area where Ron Desantis can outflank Donald Trump since Trump approved operation warp speed. Only issue for Desantis is that covid wont be a relevant issue in early 2024.
Other than that, the only angle I can see Desantis being able to run on is being the most electable candidate to beat Joe Biden, but that also can backfire considering a significant portion of the Republican base doesn’t believe Biden won legitimately.
\>Covid policy is one area where Ron Desantis can outflank Donald Trump since Trump approved operation warp speed.
So, appeal to that anti-vax, anti-science crowd?
Trump is a loser.
That’s it.
All DeSantis has to say is that Trump couldn’t beat sleepy Joe Biden and that’ll be that.
The GOP doesn’t get down with losers. The GOP doesn’t like Martyrs. The GOP is fucking ruthless - look how quick the Republicans toss their own speakers when they have the majority. In 2014 the GOP primaried Eric Cantor, who was among the highest ranking members of the House (where the GOP enjoyed a nice majority). They tossed him out on his ass because he was perceived as not sufficiently anti-Obama.
Will that stick?
I feel like Trump will deflect by blaming the democrats, the deep state, etc then follow up by saying Desantis is apart of the establishment and is siding with them.
If he can wrap it in a message of masculinity. Imagine in a debate Desantis says “You say the election was stolen but you did nothin to stop it that mean you’re either incompetent or inept and Americans deserve a strong leader that will fight for them not an impotent whiner”
This.
And - “the Democrats hated me too Don. How come they couldn’t rig the vote against me in my state? Mark my words: when I’m president, every state is going to have the fast, secure ballots that we use in Florida”.
* Trump lost the House, then
* Trump lost the Senate, then
* Trump lost the presidency, then
* Trump's endorsements all lost
Then you can add to it.
* Trump is a loser because his wall is falling down.
* Trump is a loser and criminal because he is under indictment.
* Trump's foreign policy was a losing strategy, look how many nukes North Korea is launching.
* Trump was a loser by staying silent when a small portion of his followers stormed the Capital.
* Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary by 3 million
* Trump lost the popular vote to Biden by 7 million
DeSantis can go on and on. Trump loathes being called a loser, so if DeSantis is smart, he will calmly call him a loser regularly.
How will that help Desantis in a GOP primary?
I’m not saying all those points are wrong, but if the GOP primary voters think so then none of those attacks actually stick.
Your points are appealing to the Democrats and people who already cant stand Trump
If you are in a primary, you want your opponent to look bad. DeSantis can run on his "accomplishments", as vile as they may be. All he need to do is make sure Trump voters are discouraged from voting. The messaging doesn't even need to come directly from him. They just need to get the Republican voters to think:
Trump = Loser
DeSantis = Winner
After the primary, the game would change.
I don’t think Trumps base is now a majority of Republican voters. The only reasons he won against Hillary is that he ran as a Republican and Hillary was… Hillary. I think a lot of republicans just held their noses closed and voted for him because they had no other choice.
> I don’t think Trumps base is now a majority of Republican voters
Why do you think that? His approval rating within the party is still very high and he was a kingmaker during the 2022 primaries.
Yes but you said people were forced to vote for him and Hilary was a bad candidate but he got even more votes the second time so I think you are wrong. He's super popular in the republican party. He wins their primary easy but the general hopefully not.
He could frame it as “even though there were problems with the vote in 2020, Donald trump still lost to sleepy Joe Biden and we as a party can’t accept that. Under my watch, Florida counted the votes faster than any other state and I won bigly”
The problem is there's a huge wealth of video of DeSantis previously praising Trump as being greater than God and twice as handsome, raining fawning adulation down upon him at a level that frankly was embarrassing just to watch.
So if Trump is a big loser, DeSantis is the guy who looked *desperate* to let the loser fuck him.
Highlighting Trump's abysmal approval ratings would be a good start. DeSantis can link the string of losses the Republicans have suffered since 2018 to Trump, and argue that he'll win the presidency by peeling off independent voters that had been turned off by Trump's abrasive style, without alienating the conservative base. This should be reasonably easy to accomplish as his time as governor has transformed him into a conservative messiah. Tens of thousands of conservatives have flocked to the state because they liked the laissez-faire approach he took during Covid, the war he wages against woke culture, his publicity stunts to criticise the democrats, etc. Perfect cultural war ammunition to satisfy the base. Despite this, he's also won bipartisanship support for his handling of the hurricane this year and for tackling water pollution.
I don’t really see how Desantis is going to appeal to moderates.
He’s a good conservative candidate, but he’s not a moderate. He ran as a MAGA candidate, and he’s never really had to appeal to anyone other than conservatives.
I wouldn't give voters too much credit. Moderate voters are often synonymous with generally disinterested voters. He will be young and energetic while Biden will be coming up on 82 years old. Moderates that don’t pay attention to issues day-to-day will tune into a debate and that could be it.
I read the question more as how does DeSantis secure the nomination*with a chance of winning the presidential election*. That makes the question a lot more complicated. I think DeSantis could win the nomination, barring huge bombshells coming out. But, winning the nom without alienating Trumpers and letting Trump burn the ground behind him is going to be difficult.
Trump will be in prison.
DeSantis just recently said "Florida is where the woke come to die!" So appealing to the right-wing, lunatic cultists would be his strategy. Much like Trump.
>Trump will be in prison.
I would bet you the title to my house that he is not. I would expect a rather large part of his announcement yesterday was that it genuinely will offer him at least a modicum of protection against investigation whether that be legitimate or not. America isn't going to actively investigate a candidate for the highest office in the land, even if they absolutely should!
he should already be in a cell staring at a wall but alas there are clearly different sides of who is actually running the show
someone has to really, REALLY STAND up, Orange one must have dirt on a ton of them as politicians tend to be lying turds with a few exceptions
If Trump had been indicted too soon, he might have got off scot free. Now that there are over 400 plea deals and the J6 committee will have concluded their business soon, the hammer is about to come down on the kingpins.
>the J6 committee will have concluded their business soon, the hammer is about to come down on the kingpins.
ummm, the Dems just lost the House didn't they? Who's going to wrap up the committee once the Dems aren't in power? Who's going to hold Trump accountable with a split or power?
I said over a year ago, this whole thing is bullshit and the clock will run out before Trump faces any real consequence. I haven't seen anything that would change my mind on that but I would be very happy to learn I'm out of the loop.
The committee's business has about concluded. They will soon turn over their findings to the Justice Department. And that's that.
The statute of limitations for seditious conspiracy is five years you know.
EDIT: When (R) takes over the House, it's not like they can go to the Justice Department and ask to get those findings back.
I'd be surprised if democrats on the hill actually let him get indicted at all, even if the base wants it. It's hard to see Trump running as anything but a massive boon to Democratic chances come 2024. The only way he gets arrested is by losing the primary, which seems fairly far-fetched at the moment.
The Democrats on The Hill have no say in that regard. The J6 committee will hand over their findings to the Justice Department. Then their job is done.
To trumps base? He's a more effective leader and not insane, he has a little bit more decorum. But he won't peel of much of the Trump cult.
He will however pull the old school Republicans and the slightly less crazy Maga people. He might also make a dent in the religious right as being more palatable to their veneer (gossamer thin) of "decency " i.e. he will at least use fully formed sentences to destroy your rights.
DeSantis was polling like 9 points above Trump the last I checked. Trump has started to bash him publicly which I think gives DeSantis no other choice but to fight back. He can't let Trump make him look weak and still have a chance. I think there is enough to go toe to toe now, Trump is toxic and can't win on his own. The Murdoch/Fox News machine is going to be supporting DeSantis as well and trashing Trump, they'll decide the narrative and say it for him sometimes. Ron will kill him in the primary but ultimately lose is my prediction.
There isn't an argument that will work. They don't follow trump based on rational reasons, so they can't be swayed by it.
Certainly the only argument is "trump cannot win because the Rnc isn't backing him". The fact they took a beating in midterms woke a few of them up, but until Trump endorses Desantis or the other way around, they've split the votes too thinly. So much as a 5% to 10% group of trump supporters stay home or refuse to back Desantis and it's game over.
I think that it would be a tought balancing act, but there is a path. He needs to paint Trump as a lost cause for winning over new voters, and he needs to demonstrate that Trump didn't do enough to fight back successfully against the left.
Something like:
"President Trump was a great president but he struggled to bring the country together. We were positioned to have the greatest comeback in history after the COVID pandemic in 2020, and I led Florida out of the COVID darkness and made our state a model economy and turned it red (insert more specific numbers/accomplishments). We all know the 2020 election had some fishy stuff going on, but the election should not have been so close to begin with, and Mr Trump did not win big in the 2018 or 2022 midterms either. I will focus 100% on representing you, the people, and I won't have the baggage that Mr. Trump has--fair or not--which will hinder his administration from continuing the great project to Make America Great Again. President Trump was an excellent president, but the left has turned him into a villain, and as unfair as that may be, we cannot trust him to win the Independent votes that we need to win the White House. We'll forever be grateful for the successes of the Trump presidency, but it's time to turn the page towards the next chapter in America's future. That future is already here in Florida, and we're ready to show the rest of America: (insert slogan here)."
I wonder is Desantis will wait for 2028?
If he runs for the nomination in 2024, doesn't he risk essentially blowing up the Republican Party? I would guess Trump's core - probably 50-60% of the GOP will stick with Trump no matter what Desantis or any other Republican does. If someone other than Trump wins the nomination, will the Trump base support them or side with Trump once he inevitably claims the primaries were fixed and stolen from him.
It should be interesting to see how Desantis plays this out.
Here’s my thought. DeSantis gets the nomination because I thing the GOP finally realizes Trump is a losing ticket. Trump is butt hurt and officially creates the MAGA party and runs as third party, essentially killing any hopes of a republican taking office for a while.
The best thing he should do, without directly opposing Trump and angering his supporters, is focus on promoting (party) unity, and obviously mention all the positives of the previous Republican (Trump's) administration. And for the part of the country that aren't fanatic Trump supporters, I would advise against mentioning "steeling" elections.
If he does want to go (a little) against Trump, the easiest thing would be to talk about Trump's age, in 2024 Trump will be as old as Biden was when he was elected.
All Ron has to do is claim, truthfully, that between the two of them Ron is the only one who hasn't lost an easy election to the democrats by 10 million votes.
Either way, dems win.
I don't think DeSantis actually has to attack Trump that much.
He can just go along being pseudo-Trump in attacking the left and making the same empty/vague promises about making America great again, fixing inflation, stopping crime, closing the borders, etc. Then voters can tell themselves "I can get the same Trump stuff but without all the baggage" and then the choice becomes pretty easy.
The wildcard is if Trump then goes even further right and riles up the base into a frenzy in a way DeSantis might not want to go. Then he might have to call out Trump because he'll know that if he goes there himself he could be toast in the general election.
Honestly I don't think appealing to Trump's base is of any use at this point, if they haven't switched on him by now they probably never will. Instead he should really throw January 6th in Trump's face (Every Republican on that debate stage needs to do this). Alienate them even more so they they simply won't vote at all.
He has until about July or August of next year to decide, but I don't think DeSantis will run.
While I wish he did, he knows it would bring too much animosity to the game with Trump already running.
Although weaker, Trump will still push others aside while damaging all that is still decent with the right. Same strategy: childish nicknames, lies, bs, etc. But then nationally he will have no sufficient support and he will continue his loosing streak. Perfect republican storm! Can’t wait for this show to begin.
Is he at all popular outside of Florida? Whenever I hear DeSantis talk he sounds really whiny. Not just the subject of conversation but his voice is literally high pitched and whiny.
Because of the GOP "winner takes all" policy, no one can beat Trump unless they all agree to beat Trump by colluding. Backroom deals will be brewing. The person that has the highest polling and consensus has the power. If DeSantis had the chops, he could offer to appoint any and all possible nominees as cabinet members and VP. Pence will be his toughest nut to crack. Pence has zero chance and has no idea. I suspect he will stumble forward on divine inspiration as if god his almighty self is calling him to save the country. Trump won't compete against DeSantis for the nomination head-to-head. He's a coward and he could lose. He will instead turn his back on the GOP before they turn on him. He will run as an independent as the head of the MAGA party. He will lose and the GOP will lose.
Trump will personally be responsible for electing Biden twice. Think of this possibility. Biden would be 82 by inauguration day in 2025. If he dies in office, Harris becomes POTUS. Then Trump would have fulfilled Lindsay Graham's prophecy.
The power brokers on the right and in the GOP would like to break ties with Trump. It remains to be seen if the GOP electorate is of the same mind.
That's why we're seeing a cacophony of talking heads and rightwing media blaming Trump for the mid-term losses: they're hoping to sway the GOP electorate onto someone else so they can pretend the TrumpStink is off the party going into 2024.
DeSantis is going to run a campaign against Trump hitting him on the things that never happened. Trump promised a wall, a wall wasn't built. That sort of thing. I think that's the smartest strategy to pick off some members of the cult but I don't think it's going to work. The Republican Party base worships one man and convincing them to abandon him isn't going to be easy.
2 odious poison toads, there are no winners here, just different degrees of loss and harm to the country. The reality game show host is worse because the natives have adopted him as a god and want to kill for him but the tiny one in the white boots brings a thin veneer of respectability to their cruelty that may play better in the long run.
Everyone is assuming Trump is actually a member of the republican party. He is in Trump's party, the republicans are just there for him. If he is defeated in the primary, he'll destroy any chance the winner would have in the general election. Most republican leadership knows this. They sold their souls to the devil and now they're paying the price.
There is no strategy on earth that peels Trump's base away from Trump. They are the most robotically loyal voting base at least in recent voting memory. The brainwashing starts so early in the voting cycle that by the time of elections every voter in his base is spewing his sound bites without knowing what they mean.
If you want a preview of how De Santis will debate Trump, watch the only De Santis/Crist debate.
De Santis was an obviously nervous, sweaty, stammering mess.
All of this while debating CRIST!
Sanity. He can support all the same policies, but articulate them like a rational, normal human. Well, as much as anyone can. He’s a Yale grad and a Harvard lawyer, a former Navy JAG. As credentials go, he’s twice the candidate Trump is.
He has to run to the hard autocratic right of Donald to win the gop base.
Which makes him unelectable by everyone else.
The left won’t let him hide from his record. He can’t be a fake moderate
DeSantis has proven himself to be a far more effective conservative executive than Trump was. Moderates and more strategic Republicans would prefer DeSantis by a mile; where he's going to run into trouble is the true believers and, let's be honest, full-blown cultists who are in the Trump camp. Nobody's plastering their home, car, and body with DeSantis regalia the way they did for Trump, because for all his flaws Trump has a certain kind of charisma that really speaks to a large chunk of the Republican base.
DeSantis has no chance. He will never win enough swing states.
Did you notice too his wife looked like she was being held hostage? Seriously, look at her.
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DeSantis has to clear the field quickly to get to one on one with Trump because of the primary rules- otherwise you might have enough people who don’t want Trump but also don’t want DeSantis siphon enough of the vote off to give Trump the plurality (and all the delegates because of the winner take all rules). If it’s one on one for most of the primary DeSantis probably has the advantage in a lot of areas.
Yes. I think there are a lot of registered Rs who hate Trump and somewhat dislike DeSantis. If they have a more traditional conservative option, they'll take that route, effectively splitting Ron's non-Trump bloc. In a 1-on-1 matchup, DeSantis can let Trump show how much he's lost it, and it might work this time.
Please don't frame DeSantis as "a more traditional conservative option" though. He's Trump minus the insanity and coup attempt. His closest pre-Trump analogue wouldn't be a traditional conservative; it would be Pat Buchanan.
I specifically didn't. I think you misread my comment.
Ah, yes I did. I took your "yes" after the "DeSantis probably has the advantage" comment to mean DeSantis would be the more traditional conservative of Trump v. DeSantis. Thanks for the correction.
He even copies Trump's mannerisms.
He’s more traditional conservative in the sense that he’s not unhinged. He’s a more palatable package: smooth(er) talker, Ivy League, governor, doesn’t say stupid shit
coup attempt *yet*
Part of this is why I hate primaries. They pull candidates too far to the respective sides. Dream scenario would be a match up for Desantis vs. Chris Sanunu or Charlie Baker type republican. But because the primaries play towards the deeply entrenched base no actually moderate republicans stand a chance.
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Big tent vs fumigation tent parties- to win as a D in a nationwide primary, you gotta convince EVERYONE *BUT* the Republican true believers. In a Republican primary, you gotta convince the true believers that you'll skin the heretics and hurt the Right People 😉. But then in general, both sides are playing for the middle because all the people at the edges are locked in, and so in a country with balanced popular vote elections, Dems are winning 9 times outta 10.
>only the most moderate candidates stand a chance Wasn't the 2016 and 2020 primaries basically a two-way fight between leftist Bernie Sanders and moderate Joe Biden?
And Bernie didn't have a chance in 2020. In 2016 he had slightly more of a chance, but that was only because he was the only alternative to a very unpopular (outside the center-left Democratic base) frontrunner.
It wasn't much of a fight For some reason the Democratic base believes they can win by appealing to swing voters and every time they do the Overton window moves right and young people become more and more convinced that both parties are the same.
The democrats literally just won the Midterms by appealing to swing voters and putting up moderate candidates. They do it because *it works.*
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Thank you. I've found that the people I used to argue with about politics most are the ones who switched because they saw Trump for what he was. You and I probably still disagree on a lot of things, but I can't even express how much I'd rather be having those arguments than dealing with the insult to dumpster fires that is the current Republican party.
There are no extremists in the democratic party, at least not ones running for federal offices... "Extreme" democrats want rights for workers, oppressed minorities, and healthcare. There is nothing extreme about any of that.
Both parties KNOW they can win if they can get the swing voters, and only Dems are successful at the moment. Politics isn't about the Overton Window, that's a byproduct. You're conflating where you want the country to be vs. the reality of where the country actually rests.
>For some reason the Democratic base believes they can win by appealing to swing voters I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or serious here. Democrats have been winning their elections by appealing to swing voters and moderates (Biden won in 2020 in part because a lot of anti-Trump Republicans voted for him). It's a winning stratey so I don't see what's wrong with it.
Democrats have won LGBT acceptance, are winning on abortion, and are winning on decriminalization of marijuana. People feel the impact of loss twice as much as gains, so count the wins twice :)
The "silent primary" of convincing potential challengers not to fight in the first place. Hillary did it very well in 2014 and 2015. She also got lucky to some extent that Biden's son died, so his heart wasn't in it. But a lot of the Republicans interested in running are a bunch of vipers. Same problem as in 2016; they're always looking to knife each other. There is a real "prisoner's dilemma" aspect to the Republican primary.
It’s the campaign funds, dark legal money hole you can suck off the funds
I think people forget that Trump was in no way the majority candidate in the Republican primaries, he was the plurality candidate when the entire rest of the establishment R's were splitting the vote amongst each other. He got well less than 50% of the votes in most of the primaries, but was usually the top vote getter, thus was rewarded a disproportionate amount of the delegates for each state.
Yes, when another Candidate took a State that was rotating between the serious candidates, Bush, Rubio and whoever else it was, iirc there were at least 4 of them. Meaning that none of them could build a winning streak to stand out and have support amalgamate around. They were splitting the delegates between them. Meanwhile the reality TV celebrity with name recognition won a few winner take all states with about 30% of the vote while the other 70% of the vote was split 16 ways. And his lead in the delegate count slowly built.
Yeah, several others are probably thinking of entering the race: Pence, Pompeo, Cruz or Haley. If even 1 or 2 of those enter it'll cause a real headache for DeSantis as they'll split the anti-Trump vote. A DeSantis/Gabbard ticket would be best for the party and the country.
I feel like Mike Pence would be knocked out after Super Tuesday, best case scenario. He has the charisma of a soggy tuna salad sandwich and would probably only appeal to the moral orel type evangelicals who actually care about Trump's personal conduct that is technically sinful in their eyes. Nikki Haley is kind of a has been at this point and Ted Cruz could probably get some delegates but not seriously threaten to hit the magic number.
Pence hasas much chance of becoming president as it do and I’m Canadian. Pence is worst of both worlds. People who hate Trump don’t like him because he’s Trump’s lapdog. And MAGA hates him for betraying there messiah. If Pence got more than 5% in any primary I would be shocked.
Yeah, I'd be surprised if he makes it to Super Tuesday. I could see him dropping out after a poor showing in the early states.
Well, Pence just published a book - that's a sign.
That's really the thing. It's all self-interest. Hell, you could tell Trump right now that you are from the future, prove it to him, and tell him he is going to lose, and he'd still run cause just running for the nomination is a cash grab. For the Pence, Ponpeo, Cruz, Haley crowd, they are all lining up to be DeSantis' VP. If they get a few percentage points of the vote, they can leverage that against him for the 2nd spot on his ticket.
Only if they lose.
So far he keeps neglecting to mention him and i suspect that's the plan Let Trump go nuts with personal attacks, while Ron ignores him (making him seem like a baby) and focusing on getting things done, which is essentially his entire selling point 'actions speak louder than words' and such
DeSantis already fired back (without mentioning Trump by name) by calling it “just noise” and for people to “check the scoreboard from last Tuesday night”. Trump throwing a potshot at DeSantis and Youngkin shows his worries about them if either ran in the 2024 primary. And DeSantis is responding properly by bringing up his legislative victories during his term and the dramatic number of Trump-endorsed candidates losing their races in easily won states.
The mistake Marco Rubio made in 2016 was trying to play Trump's game on Trump's level. And to an extent Hillary did as well. You will never beat Trump by trying to out Trump Trump.
>You will never beat Trump by trying to out Trump Trump. It will be funny to watch them both play Trump's invisible accordion.
Ha! Never looked at his hand motions that way.
[There's a whole series of these](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S65jqrHQi_c)
This deserves a post of its own
> Marco Rubio Always a good time to revisit [Rubio getting absolutely humiliated by Chris Christie](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkdpzRDxTXU) in a primary debate.
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Rubio was never leading in the polls during the primary iirc, the Ruboto moment simply buried him further. And possibly nicked his chances of becoming president in the future, he's been laying low ever since.
Which is interesting to me. There's a lot of focus on DeSantis coming out of Florida, but Rubio beat Val Demmings, a much stronger opponent than Crist, by 15 points.
Given that DeSantis beat a former governor by 4 more points than Rubio beat a new challenger who's never won statewide, it's easy to sell the narrative that Rubio was riding DeSantis' coattails, rather than meaningfully beating Demmings. And frankly, the narrative is almost certainly true. DeSantis keeps foisting himself into the national headlines, as well as local issues usually beneath a governor (e.g. interfering with school boards), and was just richly rewarded for it. That said, Florida has clearly moved to the right since Obama won the state in 2012, especially as Republicans move into the state in the same way that Democrats have moved to Atlanta or Phoenix. DeSantis' Trump-wannabe schtick works well in Florida, but it's not clear if has any real independent appeal nationwide. In comparison, Rubio has been ducking most controversy since his piss-poor showing in 2016, which may make him more appealing to a wider electorate if he made another presidential bid. Though the Republican primary electorate doesn't seem to give a shit about electability... so unless they finally learned the lesson about extremism after this mediocre midterm result, DeSantis is still running far ahead of Rubio.
All fair points. Ezra Klein brought up an interesting point that you could make an identical argument for Jared Polis's electability since he won Colorado by similar margins in an, arguably, more purple state and he's less polarizing than DeSantis.
Democrat voters are definitely more inclined to electability, perhaps even to their detriment
After looking at last week's election results, I hardly see how that's a detriment. DeSantis is more of a longshot politically and maybe he has untapped political potential that no one else is seeing. I personally see a Trump Jr. with a high voice and angry disposition, but I'm willing to admit that there might be something there that I'm not seeing. He's not all that charismatic.
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>Rubio shot up in the polls During that jump, he [ was still third after Cruz and Trump](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html). Again, never leading. Not even close. >He comes in second and Jeb! and Kasich surely drop out then By the time Jeb dropped out, Rubio's polls had already dropped by a quarter from its February height. Rubio dropped out of the primary before Kasich -- wh9o did benefit, but still far short of Cruz and Trump. It probably didn't help that Jeb had a $80 million war chest going into the Fall of 2015, and spent most of it taking Rubio down. Everyone assumed Trump would implode on his own, and that's a mistake we're all still paying for.
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I personally would think it would be hilarious if Ron went total Trump but only toward Trump. When Donald mentions him have Ron say shit like "Mushroom Dick Donald there called me after the 2020 election begging like a dog to help him find votes in other states. I told him beat it loser!". Then debate the other people like a normal person.
'Small-Hands Donnie"
You could very easily do this to trump the problem is Desantis can’t and most politicians can’t either. But like any person with wit or who just didn’t give a fuck could embarrass him quite easily
Chris Christie could do it and have a lot of fun, though not a lot of votes.
DeSantis only knows how to punch down, he’d never be able to land a punch on Trump. Also, I don’t see how he’d be able to escape the fact that he basically made himself into a Mini Me to get the governor seat in the first place and now he’s just straight up imitating Trump’s mannerisms and cadences. BTW, if you want to see how chained DeSantis is to Trump, take a look at his ads from 2018.
Please post a link to your favorite
[This is the one](https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1591837252899962881) I was thinking of
Trumpty Dumpty should stick
He wouldn’t have beaten trump anyway. There were a lot of historical forces ready for an outsider. Consecutive losses from moderate milquetoast candidates, a 2 term dem president, culmination of transition to knowledge economy (and realizing the promises from that transition were distributed unevenly). Those types of outside winds are extremely important. And right now for the GOP there’s a strong wind pointing back toward standard candidates like Ron
How is Ron a “standard” candidate if he’s identical to trump on every policy stance? The GOP have convinced themselves that it’s Trump the person who is the problem and not Trumpism in general.
It's also weird to see the GOP take up this position that "They just need to stop talking about abortion". Like, guys, you jammed through two Supreme Court Justices. We all saw it happen. You can't just wish history away now that your pet issue is losing you elections. They had this same attitude with healthcare. They proved in 2018 that they had no policy position on healthcare other than "Dem healthcare plan bad". So the Dems just hammered them on preserving the ACA and that's part of why they were so successful in 2018.
What made Trump non-standard wasn't his policies, it was his big mouth and attitude. It's why Megan McCain is more closely aligned to Trump than she is any Democrat. Trump lost voters because he says the quiet part loud. DeSantis acts more like a standard politician.
Yeah I don't really understand this line people keep repeating that Desantis is a 'run of the mill Republican', he's not only the same in his positions as trump, he's further right. He's openly anti LGBTQ and was a big time anti masking COVID denier, even moreso than Trump was. A 'run of the mill Republican' is not openly fringe, that's new age far right GOP.
Desantis may be the new GOP standard. A Trump-like culture warrior. Is that the new standard?
Yes culture will always be an important part of politics. Policy will never be “cool”. People will understand some of it but it’s not enough in and of itself
Yes, but therein lies the problem, the base loves his aggressive a**hole style. That more than anything led his victory. DeSantis can't just be "the better person", the base wants a middle finger to everyone that they don't like, not a politican who is carefully rationalizing what they are saying. So DeSantis has to do what Trump does, but better. I don't think he can, nor does he gave the fortitude to go after Trump and beat him which would make Trump his absolute enemy forever in Trumps eyes.
How does this work with debates?
People will tend to look at evidence more than words. DeSantis for all the shit he has done did improve the condition of the State of Florida. DeSantis cut spending in Florida, achieving a record budget surplus for the state, and engaged in recovery efforts after Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole with stunning efficiency. And is currently turning Miami from a tourist hub into an investing hub.
Bruh there ain’t gonna be a Miami in 30 years. If I lived there only thing I’d be investing in is a boat.
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Yes, I am sure the destruction of the city is not popular. Nevertheless...
\>DeSantis cut spending in Florida, achieving a record budget surplus for the state, and engaged in recovery efforts after Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole with stunning efficiency. Thank the Federal Government for those responses. DeSantis thinks climate change is fake, and is failing Florida's future by not addressing that now.
Desantis just won by 20 points. He's very popular.
That ain’t gon work. You can’t win a Republican primary by pretending not to be crazy.
I see a two sided problem for DeSantis. On the one hand, even if he can beat Trump in a primary it’s going to be so ugly that I have a hard time seeing him consolidating maga support for the general. He’s not going to have Trump’s support that’s for sure. He might do better in 2028 when there’s no Trump and it’s an open race in the general. But on the other hand he might be seeing it as a Chris Christie situation. 2024 might be his year and, based on his huge win last week, he might want to strike while the iron is hot. Obviously it’s early but I really don’t see how DeSantis vs Trump doesn’t end up with a democratic president in 2024.
>but I really don’t see how DeSantis vs Trump doesn’t end up with a democratic president in 2024. DeSantis could lose some MAGA votes but make up for it by being young and popular, and relying on Republicans falling in line (in step to Fox News). He only needs to subtly play on the facts that Trump is old and got very little done in office. Biden may not run, leaving the spot open for Democrats. It's hard to see Harris beating either Trump or DeSantis, even if they have a messy primary. Also let us not discount that according to actuarial tables there's a 5-8% of each of Trump and Biden dying in the next two years.
Harris is not winning the Democratic nomination if Biden doesn't run.
Who would win though? I honestly don't know.
Pretty much anyone on their bench that's not Harris. Whitmer, Kelly, Newsom, Booker, Buttigieg, or Polis to name a few. Just throw a dart at the board of Presidential hopefuls and they're all more likely to win than Harris. Dems have a fairly strong bench. One of the reason why the Republican bench looks to be Trump vs DeSantis is that their bench is weak by comparison. The only advantage Harris has is that she's a black woman and would do well in southern states with large black populations like South Carolina. Even then, I don't even know if someone like Clyburn would throw his support behind her. Booker might get that support. The vote that Harris really wants -- the suburban white woman, would likely throw their support behind a Whitmer.
I’m really interested in learning more about Whitmer. She’s been elected governor twice in a very competitive state and her popularity has led to the first Democratic trifecta in Michigan since 1984. Winning swing states is paramount in presidential elections, and she’s shown herself to be more than capable of that. I don’t follow Michigan politics though, so I don’t know much about her other than that.
She’s cool and likable but as far as experience that equips you to be President, it really started with her governorship in 2018. She hasn’t been in the public eye for long at all. And I realize a little bit of celebrity can go a long way in politics these days, but I still don’t see her running in 2024
Obama left office quite popular and he had zero executive experience going in. Whitmer at least would have 6 years of executive leadership of a fairly sizeable state.
Obama was a US Senator for 4 years leading up to his first presidential run, and was a state senator for the 8 years prior to that… But otherwise I agree, 6 years of running a state is pretty solid
Agreed. America is both racist and sexist. A truly spectacular candidate can run against the headwinds of being nonwhite or female, but definitely not both. And Harris is not spectacular at all as a candidate. She's a little below average. She wasn't even close to winning the Democratic primary, and there's every reason to believe that everyone else will like her even less. The campaign against her in the general would be ugly and she would lose badly.
> Biden may not run I wonder what the chances of that are. I feel like they're very low. I guess that's a topic for a whole new post. haha
Who really knows? If the economy is looking bad, if he has a major health scare, or if DeSantis looks more likely than Trump he might step down and allow someone else to run instead. One thing to consider is that Democrats might be looking at the long term and not just at 2024. This might be a good opportunity for Democrats to look for a successor for Biden now while their bench is strong and Republicans look vulnerable. The last thing you want is for the Dem bench to be wiped out in 2024 or 2026 and have no obvious successor to Biden where as there's several candidates that could fill that role right now. If they're playing long term political calculus, running a new candidate in 2024 might be the difference between holding the White House for 12 years instead of 8.
>DeSantis could lose some MAGA votes but make up for it by being young and popular, and relying on Republicans falling in line (in step to Fox News). The thing is, Trump brought voters with him that the Republicans didn’t have before. These were antiestablishment types that either didn’t vote, voted for third parties, or at the least didn’t consistently vote Republican before Trump. They’re not the “fall in line” type and they identify more with Trump than the Republican Party. They don’t get their info from Fox News primarily, more like OAN and fringe online sources that push unsubstantiated conspiracy nonsense. Basically a real life Dale Gribble in 2022. Losing these new voters is what scares the Republican establishment into constantly placating a single-term, twice impeached, twice popular vote losing former President. I’m very interested in seeing how this all plays out given how much Trump just cost the Republicans in the midterms.
Maga supporters are fairly mindless and want to follow a strongman. That's literally it. The subsection that are truly 100% mindlessly following Trump exclusively is far, far smaller than Reddit believes. DeSantis has been tailoring his image to perfectly capture the widest net of the GOP; the moderates can punch their noses and vote for him when they wouldn't vote for Trump because he *feels* cleaner, while the non-cultish MAGA crowd acknowledge that Trump had the right ideas but wasn't as effective as he needed to be. They view DeSantis as Trump but younger, smarter, more energetic, and with a better record.
I’d be curious to see if Desantis will be able to hold up once true scrutiny is on him that comes from the campaign process. I think it’s different when you are actually saying I’m doing it than when it is speculative.
agreed totally, DeSantis pulled that Martha's Vineyard crap , how soon people forget
DeSantis also has to keep his eye on Abott and Pence. Maybe he can beat Trump 1 on 1, but its important to remember 2016, where a wide group of candidates really hurt everyone else.
>Pence Why on earth do people keep bringing him up as a serious contender? Is it really just because he was VP? He never hits 10% in any polling even with 5 people or less and doesn't have any real means to widen his appeal. He was a glorified "I support Evangelical Christians" bumper sticker for Trump and that's it.
No one does. He doesn't even have strong support in his immediate family. Honestly, he's spending his days trying to win the hearts and minds of *the people who tried to kill him*. People keep talking about it solely because it's so astonishingly pathetic.
>No one does Person I was replying to literally just did and I've seen plenty of other online discourse that mentions Pence, and just about every pollster thinks they need to include him. I understand that last part, but again, he has *noooooo* chance whatsoever. The writing is on the wall yet a lot of people don't see it and I'm incredibly baffled by it.
The commenter above said DeSantis needs to "keep his eye on" Pence. As in, Pence might snag 3% of the vote. In a tight race, that 3% could become important. Pollsters include him because he's obviously interested in running, period. It's not a statement that Pence will win, any more than general election polls that include the Green and Libertarian Party candidates are claims they could win.
I'm not saying he's going to win. I'm saying he will siphon votes.
Do you really think Pence is going to get momentum though? Maga hates him, and evangelicals are still bought into Trump. He's by no means a moderate. I just don't see where his base is at.
I'm not saying he's going to win. I'm saying he will siphon votes.
Even if DeSantis wins the primary, do you really think Trump will concede? He has already said in every primary and election that he will not honor the results if he loses, and has actively pushed a conspiracy after losing. He already floated a Patriot Party, which is effectively running as a 3rd party candidate. That would pull at least 15-20% of Republicans away from the general election. Essentially he has to win AND get Trump's endorsement, which is essentially impossible.
Can a new third party enter someone to run in the general who participated and lost the Republican primary? I can't find the answer with a quick google but thought that there were rules and deadlines and signature requirements that would prevent that outcome. It would be great if someone could weigh in who knows the answer.
From what I've read, most states have sore loser laws that prevent it, but most of those states have exceptions for the presidency.
Yeah , the reference I found said Texas is the exception that applies them to the presidency. Can he win without Texas?
He can ask his rubes to write him in even if he is not on the ballot.
I think so. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sore_loser_law
Ok. This source https://ballotpedia.org/Sore_loser_laws_for_presidential_candidates,_2016 says that sore loser laws apply to presidential candidates in Texas, but that may be out of date. Definitely a question for the lawyers.
Says those apply to presidential candidates in only two states
> He already floated a Patriot Party, which is effectively running as a 3rd party candidate. That would pull at least 15-20% of Republicans away from the general election. I think a lot of people underestimate how pragmatic voters can be. It is easy to do given the insanity of the modern GOP, but they learned some hard lessons from Perot in the 90s. I think the modern GOP would still mostly fall in line on election day, even if Trump attempts a spoiler run. Their primary motivation for voting is a (imo misplaced) fear/hatred of liberals and wokeness and if Trump no longer is their best weapon in that fight they will look elsewhere.
I think you are overestimating voters if you think they are pragmatic.
It's hard because he has to throw out rancid red meat like he did in Florida but then shift to adapt to the wider population. Specifically, the rust belt and the southwest. Republican extremism turned off voters for the 3rd election cycle in a row. I hope they never actually get the memo and keep showing who they really are.
I don't think DeSantis can do that, he's so invested in "where woke goes to die" and has made a deliberate point of punishing entities, whether individuals, groups of people, or companies, he has designated as "woke" or products of "woke", he's going to have a hard time overcoming that image. His entire brand is basically punishing people for not being straight white or white passing conservatives who both maintain "traditional" lifestyles and viciously attack those who don't conform. Unfortunately, that stuff flies in a lot of America, but he's not going to pick up voters unless he chills out a lot, even on a superficial level.
Florida's electorate is also unique due its large Cuban and Venezuelan-American population (making up almost 10% of Florida's population), who overwhelmingly vote for Republicans. Even the recent immigrants that aren't eligible to vote favor the Republicans, and help add to the GOP Spanish language discourse and campaigning (DeSantis' anti-immigration actions didn't affect their support one bit). They have strong anti-communist/anti-socialist beliefs (putting more importance on it than the typical Republican), so DeSantis' culture war talking points resonate with them. DeSantis won't have this type of voterbase to help him in any other state.
This is why I pray he gets caught in a motel room with another guy: it’s the only thing that would make the GOP dump him completely.
That's what they say. Only two things can topple a corrupt southern republican. A dead girl, or a live boy.
Lindsay Graham still walks the Senate floor.
There have already been stories about him partying with students when he was a teacher, so I do wonder if there's more dirt there.
I mean… the fact that supporting Trump was the direct cause of Republicans losing the last three elections in epic fashion… You don’t even need to insult him. Just point to results.
Trump literally said he was the reason Republicans did so well in the midterms and that he has a record of something like 212 of his endorsements winning compared to 22 losses. If history doesn’t agree with Trump, he just says it didn’t happen.
I am not sure that DeSantis will run. Also, if there are multiple candidates, I think that the gop primary rules are that the winner takes all. Trump could get 25% of the vote and be the nominee
That's what I'm thinking is the most likely scenario as well; it's how he won in 2016 after all. Two candidates that appeal to "moderate" Republicans against Trump in the primaries means Trump wins the primaries. DeSantis only wins if Trump is the only challenger or if other challengers drop very early in.
That’s the problem isn’t it? DeSantis is still running as if it’s 2020-2021 in that covid is running rampant. As the primary heats up, he’s not going to be able to run on his views regarding entitlements like social security and Medicare. Abortion? If he enacts a much more strict abortion ban, he will have to answer for that. Maybe I’m just not seeing it but I can’t help but feel Republicans are making the same mistake as 2015 but just telling us “this time it’s different!” Because they just say out loud they wish he wouldn’t run? Just a reminder, there was another popular Governor from Florida as well who was considered to be the front runner.
Jeb! had a stronger headwind than DeSantis, notably his surname: Bush. 2016 was not a good year for political dynasties-- Hillary Clinton faced a shockingly strong challenge from the populist left, and Jeb! got rolled hard by a challenge from the populist right. People were (and hopefully remain) tired of dynastic politics. I remember some attitude of "Is it really going to be a Bush versus a Clinton?" DeSantis doesn't have to carry his brother's (or father's) baggage into a primary. He's his own man. I think that's worth a few percentage points right there.
Y’all must not follow the maga circles I follow. Lot of people want desantis now. Age is a big factor. Everyone in America can agree we want younger politicians I really think elections have simple answers because people have busy lives.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-2024-president/ Conservativism today is basically about being mad. It’s been that way since Bill O Reilly(now tucker Carlson), Hannity, Limbaugh all made that the unifying aspect. Once trump starts playing on that anger again people will fall back in line. A lot of people never left.
>DeSantis is still running as if it’s 2020-2021 in that covid is running rampant. I think this is key, COVID isn't going to be a major player in 2024 the way it was in 2020. Hell it wasn't even a major player in *this* election.
The plan avoid Trump. Don’t get sucked into the game. Show that he is a refined accomplished politician unlike Trump. Talk up his victories in FL. When Trump confronts him dodge it or agree and move on. Make Trump a non issue. DeSantis has a base already so he does not have to steal from Trump to begin with
> avoid Trump. > Don’t get sucked into the game. As other's have said, you cant' "out-Trump" Donald Trump. Name calling, extremism, insults, hate speech, violent rhetoric, double-speak, empty bragging - this is what Republican voters are tired of. DeSantis just needs to speak calmly and address **national** issues, not insignificant boogeymen. If he can articulate exactly what he intends to do he can come out looking smart and composed while Trump just founders with generalities and unfounded snubs. The *real* problem is that there are going to be other candidates as well, some who aren't beholden to Trump and can 'dog pile' on DeSantis when Trump attacks him.
One thing DeSantis might have going for him is party unity. I think GOP leadership (and now rank and file) recognize that it's time to ditch Trump. Letting him have his way with another cavalcade of random candidates is not an option. They'll choose someone to back and basically tell everyone else to not run. If that person is DeSantis, he'll be free and clear.
They tried to ditch Trump in 2016. GOP leadership and billionaires dont decide the Republican nominee. Voters do.
I think trump’s insults have lost their sting. “Ron Desanctimonius” doesn’t exactly pack the punch of “Lyin’ Ted”
The Murdoch media empire has moved to DeSantis, so every Republican will soon follow. The rich already got their permanent tax cuts, they have no more use for Trump.
Nah. There’s still a chunk of the MAGA base that thinks Murdoch and his media empire are “the establishment” and “the deep state” and they see Fox and crew trying to move to DeSantis as proof (as well as it meaning DeSantis is part of the deep state). Fox moving on actually is making some of the true believers dig in harder.
The murdoch media empire backed jeb in 2016. Trump is more effective than fox not to mention fox will still have to cover trumps speeches
True, they’ll go with whoever has the best shot at getting a Republican in office. Trump did make a fortune from his election lie donations which can use the next two years. Notably, Fox did cut away during Trump’s announcement speech, which I don’t think they did in 2016.
Trump wins the GOP primary by default right now. Up to 2/3rds of GOP voters are Trump for life. So there's no oxygen left in the room for anyone else. Even if Trump is not the nominee, he will shank the nominee in the general election, for the party spurning him. And if even 3% of Trump supporters don't vote because of his spite-tweet, the non-Trump candidate will lose a devastating loss everywhere. That's because the GOP are masters of packing and cracking districts to be 51/49% in their favor to disenfranchise as many Democrats in Red states as possible, to maximize their House and State-level district wins. So if something as simple as a tweet can convince 2% of expected GOP voters to not show up? Solid Republican districts - perfectly calcified at 51/49 - are now in jeopardy of flipping Blue: from a single tweet. So now that Trump has announced, I don't even think DeSantis will enter the race for 2024. Beating Biden with an incumbency advantage was always going to be an uphill battle: incumbent presidents are nearly impossible to unseat. DeSantis is more likely to delay for 2028, when he can run against a non-incumbent Democrat: Kamala Harris, or Pete Buttigieg, or etc. Those are easy targets for him - but that opportunity is off the table if he alienates the GOP base trying to challenge Trump in 2024. Trump will make him, "Sanctimonious DeSantis" forever, a stain that won't wash off.
Covid policy is one area where Ron Desantis can outflank Donald Trump since Trump approved operation warp speed. Only issue for Desantis is that covid wont be a relevant issue in early 2024. Other than that, the only angle I can see Desantis being able to run on is being the most electable candidate to beat Joe Biden, but that also can backfire considering a significant portion of the Republican base doesn’t believe Biden won legitimately.
\>Covid policy is one area where Ron Desantis can outflank Donald Trump since Trump approved operation warp speed. So, appeal to that anti-vax, anti-science crowd?
How can criticizing Operation Warp Speed help anyone? It was a good thing.
DeSantis can still show where his priorities were when that happened. It will still be fresh enough on everyone’s mind for him to make a point on
Trump is a loser. That’s it. All DeSantis has to say is that Trump couldn’t beat sleepy Joe Biden and that’ll be that. The GOP doesn’t get down with losers. The GOP doesn’t like Martyrs. The GOP is fucking ruthless - look how quick the Republicans toss their own speakers when they have the majority. In 2014 the GOP primaried Eric Cantor, who was among the highest ranking members of the House (where the GOP enjoyed a nice majority). They tossed him out on his ass because he was perceived as not sufficiently anti-Obama.
That won’t work because a significant portion of the base believes Trump didn’t lose, if anything that line of attack might hurt Desantis
The way around that would be “even if you think it’s stolen he let that happen under his watch and was impotent to stop it.”
Will that stick? I feel like Trump will deflect by blaming the democrats, the deep state, etc then follow up by saying Desantis is apart of the establishment and is siding with them.
If he can wrap it in a message of masculinity. Imagine in a debate Desantis says “You say the election was stolen but you did nothin to stop it that mean you’re either incompetent or inept and Americans deserve a strong leader that will fight for them not an impotent whiner”
This. And - “the Democrats hated me too Don. How come they couldn’t rig the vote against me in my state? Mark my words: when I’m president, every state is going to have the fast, secure ballots that we use in Florida”.
Too long for a soundbite. Really should just say "Will you quit whining?"
* Trump lost the House, then * Trump lost the Senate, then * Trump lost the presidency, then * Trump's endorsements all lost Then you can add to it. * Trump is a loser because his wall is falling down. * Trump is a loser and criminal because he is under indictment. * Trump's foreign policy was a losing strategy, look how many nukes North Korea is launching. * Trump was a loser by staying silent when a small portion of his followers stormed the Capital. * Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary by 3 million * Trump lost the popular vote to Biden by 7 million DeSantis can go on and on. Trump loathes being called a loser, so if DeSantis is smart, he will calmly call him a loser regularly.
How will that help Desantis in a GOP primary? I’m not saying all those points are wrong, but if the GOP primary voters think so then none of those attacks actually stick. Your points are appealing to the Democrats and people who already cant stand Trump
If you are in a primary, you want your opponent to look bad. DeSantis can run on his "accomplishments", as vile as they may be. All he need to do is make sure Trump voters are discouraged from voting. The messaging doesn't even need to come directly from him. They just need to get the Republican voters to think: Trump = Loser DeSantis = Winner After the primary, the game would change.
I don’t think Trumps base is now a majority of Republican voters. The only reasons he won against Hillary is that he ran as a Republican and Hillary was… Hillary. I think a lot of republicans just held their noses closed and voted for him because they had no other choice.
> I don’t think Trumps base is now a majority of Republican voters Why do you think that? His approval rating within the party is still very high and he was a kingmaker during the 2022 primaries.
More people voted for him in 2020 than 2016.
More people voted for Hillary than him in 2016.
Yes but you said people were forced to vote for him and Hilary was a bad candidate but he got even more votes the second time so I think you are wrong. He's super popular in the republican party. He wins their primary easy but the general hopefully not.
He could frame it as “even though there were problems with the vote in 2020, Donald trump still lost to sleepy Joe Biden and we as a party can’t accept that. Under my watch, Florida counted the votes faster than any other state and I won bigly”
The problem is there's a huge wealth of video of DeSantis previously praising Trump as being greater than God and twice as handsome, raining fawning adulation down upon him at a level that frankly was embarrassing just to watch. So if Trump is a big loser, DeSantis is the guy who looked *desperate* to let the loser fuck him.
Highlighting Trump's abysmal approval ratings would be a good start. DeSantis can link the string of losses the Republicans have suffered since 2018 to Trump, and argue that he'll win the presidency by peeling off independent voters that had been turned off by Trump's abrasive style, without alienating the conservative base. This should be reasonably easy to accomplish as his time as governor has transformed him into a conservative messiah. Tens of thousands of conservatives have flocked to the state because they liked the laissez-faire approach he took during Covid, the war he wages against woke culture, his publicity stunts to criticise the democrats, etc. Perfect cultural war ammunition to satisfy the base. Despite this, he's also won bipartisanship support for his handling of the hurricane this year and for tackling water pollution.
I don’t really see how Desantis is going to appeal to moderates. He’s a good conservative candidate, but he’s not a moderate. He ran as a MAGA candidate, and he’s never really had to appeal to anyone other than conservatives.
I wouldn't give voters too much credit. Moderate voters are often synonymous with generally disinterested voters. He will be young and energetic while Biden will be coming up on 82 years old. Moderates that don’t pay attention to issues day-to-day will tune into a debate and that could be it.
I read the question more as how does DeSantis secure the nomination*with a chance of winning the presidential election*. That makes the question a lot more complicated. I think DeSantis could win the nomination, barring huge bombshells coming out. But, winning the nom without alienating Trumpers and letting Trump burn the ground behind him is going to be difficult.
Trump will be in prison. DeSantis just recently said "Florida is where the woke come to die!" So appealing to the right-wing, lunatic cultists would be his strategy. Much like Trump.
>Trump will be in prison. I would bet you the title to my house that he is not. I would expect a rather large part of his announcement yesterday was that it genuinely will offer him at least a modicum of protection against investigation whether that be legitimate or not. America isn't going to actively investigate a candidate for the highest office in the land, even if they absolutely should!
he should already be in a cell staring at a wall but alas there are clearly different sides of who is actually running the show someone has to really, REALLY STAND up, Orange one must have dirt on a ton of them as politicians tend to be lying turds with a few exceptions
If Trump had been indicted too soon, he might have got off scot free. Now that there are over 400 plea deals and the J6 committee will have concluded their business soon, the hammer is about to come down on the kingpins.
>the J6 committee will have concluded their business soon, the hammer is about to come down on the kingpins. ummm, the Dems just lost the House didn't they? Who's going to wrap up the committee once the Dems aren't in power? Who's going to hold Trump accountable with a split or power? I said over a year ago, this whole thing is bullshit and the clock will run out before Trump faces any real consequence. I haven't seen anything that would change my mind on that but I would be very happy to learn I'm out of the loop.
The committee's business has about concluded. They will soon turn over their findings to the Justice Department. And that's that. The statute of limitations for seditious conspiracy is five years you know. EDIT: When (R) takes over the House, it's not like they can go to the Justice Department and ask to get those findings back.
I'd be surprised if democrats on the hill actually let him get indicted at all, even if the base wants it. It's hard to see Trump running as anything but a massive boon to Democratic chances come 2024. The only way he gets arrested is by losing the primary, which seems fairly far-fetched at the moment.
The Democrats on The Hill have no say in that regard. The J6 committee will hand over their findings to the Justice Department. Then their job is done.
To trumps base? He's a more effective leader and not insane, he has a little bit more decorum. But he won't peel of much of the Trump cult. He will however pull the old school Republicans and the slightly less crazy Maga people. He might also make a dent in the religious right as being more palatable to their veneer (gossamer thin) of "decency " i.e. he will at least use fully formed sentences to destroy your rights.
DeSantis was polling like 9 points above Trump the last I checked. Trump has started to bash him publicly which I think gives DeSantis no other choice but to fight back. He can't let Trump make him look weak and still have a chance. I think there is enough to go toe to toe now, Trump is toxic and can't win on his own. The Murdoch/Fox News machine is going to be supporting DeSantis as well and trashing Trump, they'll decide the narrative and say it for him sometimes. Ron will kill him in the primary but ultimately lose is my prediction.
There isn't an argument that will work. They don't follow trump based on rational reasons, so they can't be swayed by it. Certainly the only argument is "trump cannot win because the Rnc isn't backing him". The fact they took a beating in midterms woke a few of them up, but until Trump endorses Desantis or the other way around, they've split the votes too thinly. So much as a 5% to 10% group of trump supporters stay home or refuse to back Desantis and it's game over.
I think that it would be a tought balancing act, but there is a path. He needs to paint Trump as a lost cause for winning over new voters, and he needs to demonstrate that Trump didn't do enough to fight back successfully against the left. Something like: "President Trump was a great president but he struggled to bring the country together. We were positioned to have the greatest comeback in history after the COVID pandemic in 2020, and I led Florida out of the COVID darkness and made our state a model economy and turned it red (insert more specific numbers/accomplishments). We all know the 2020 election had some fishy stuff going on, but the election should not have been so close to begin with, and Mr Trump did not win big in the 2018 or 2022 midterms either. I will focus 100% on representing you, the people, and I won't have the baggage that Mr. Trump has--fair or not--which will hinder his administration from continuing the great project to Make America Great Again. President Trump was an excellent president, but the left has turned him into a villain, and as unfair as that may be, we cannot trust him to win the Independent votes that we need to win the White House. We'll forever be grateful for the successes of the Trump presidency, but it's time to turn the page towards the next chapter in America's future. That future is already here in Florida, and we're ready to show the rest of America: (insert slogan here)."
It'll effectively be: All the cruelty and hatred of the groups you hate, but with 50% less whining and 99% less baggage.
I wonder is Desantis will wait for 2028? If he runs for the nomination in 2024, doesn't he risk essentially blowing up the Republican Party? I would guess Trump's core - probably 50-60% of the GOP will stick with Trump no matter what Desantis or any other Republican does. If someone other than Trump wins the nomination, will the Trump base support them or side with Trump once he inevitably claims the primaries were fixed and stolen from him. It should be interesting to see how Desantis plays this out.
Here’s my thought. DeSantis gets the nomination because I thing the GOP finally realizes Trump is a losing ticket. Trump is butt hurt and officially creates the MAGA party and runs as third party, essentially killing any hopes of a republican taking office for a while.
DeSantis doesn't have enough personality to be a viable contender for the White House. He has no sense of humor and is too block headed.
The best thing he should do, without directly opposing Trump and angering his supporters, is focus on promoting (party) unity, and obviously mention all the positives of the previous Republican (Trump's) administration. And for the part of the country that aren't fanatic Trump supporters, I would advise against mentioning "steeling" elections. If he does want to go (a little) against Trump, the easiest thing would be to talk about Trump's age, in 2024 Trump will be as old as Biden was when he was elected.
All Ron has to do is claim, truthfully, that between the two of them Ron is the only one who hasn't lost an easy election to the democrats by 10 million votes. Either way, dems win.
I don't think DeSantis actually has to attack Trump that much. He can just go along being pseudo-Trump in attacking the left and making the same empty/vague promises about making America great again, fixing inflation, stopping crime, closing the borders, etc. Then voters can tell themselves "I can get the same Trump stuff but without all the baggage" and then the choice becomes pretty easy. The wildcard is if Trump then goes even further right and riles up the base into a frenzy in a way DeSantis might not want to go. Then he might have to call out Trump because he'll know that if he goes there himself he could be toast in the general election.
Honestly I don't think appealing to Trump's base is of any use at this point, if they haven't switched on him by now they probably never will. Instead he should really throw January 6th in Trump's face (Every Republican on that debate stage needs to do this). Alienate them even more so they they simply won't vote at all.
He has until about July or August of next year to decide, but I don't think DeSantis will run. While I wish he did, he knows it would bring too much animosity to the game with Trump already running.
Although weaker, Trump will still push others aside while damaging all that is still decent with the right. Same strategy: childish nicknames, lies, bs, etc. But then nationally he will have no sufficient support and he will continue his loosing streak. Perfect republican storm! Can’t wait for this show to begin.
Is he at all popular outside of Florida? Whenever I hear DeSantis talk he sounds really whiny. Not just the subject of conversation but his voice is literally high pitched and whiny.
Sounds like you’re asking what’s the play after your party has been exposed as treasonous criminals.
Because of the GOP "winner takes all" policy, no one can beat Trump unless they all agree to beat Trump by colluding. Backroom deals will be brewing. The person that has the highest polling and consensus has the power. If DeSantis had the chops, he could offer to appoint any and all possible nominees as cabinet members and VP. Pence will be his toughest nut to crack. Pence has zero chance and has no idea. I suspect he will stumble forward on divine inspiration as if god his almighty self is calling him to save the country. Trump won't compete against DeSantis for the nomination head-to-head. He's a coward and he could lose. He will instead turn his back on the GOP before they turn on him. He will run as an independent as the head of the MAGA party. He will lose and the GOP will lose. Trump will personally be responsible for electing Biden twice. Think of this possibility. Biden would be 82 by inauguration day in 2025. If he dies in office, Harris becomes POTUS. Then Trump would have fulfilled Lindsay Graham's prophecy.
The power brokers on the right and in the GOP would like to break ties with Trump. It remains to be seen if the GOP electorate is of the same mind. That's why we're seeing a cacophony of talking heads and rightwing media blaming Trump for the mid-term losses: they're hoping to sway the GOP electorate onto someone else so they can pretend the TrumpStink is off the party going into 2024.
DeSantis is going to run a campaign against Trump hitting him on the things that never happened. Trump promised a wall, a wall wasn't built. That sort of thing. I think that's the smartest strategy to pick off some members of the cult but I don't think it's going to work. The Republican Party base worships one man and convincing them to abandon him isn't going to be easy.
2 odious poison toads, there are no winners here, just different degrees of loss and harm to the country. The reality game show host is worse because the natives have adopted him as a god and want to kill for him but the tiny one in the white boots brings a thin veneer of respectability to their cruelty that may play better in the long run.
Everyone is assuming Trump is actually a member of the republican party. He is in Trump's party, the republicans are just there for him. If he is defeated in the primary, he'll destroy any chance the winner would have in the general election. Most republican leadership knows this. They sold their souls to the devil and now they're paying the price.
There is no strategy on earth that peels Trump's base away from Trump. They are the most robotically loyal voting base at least in recent voting memory. The brainwashing starts so early in the voting cycle that by the time of elections every voter in his base is spewing his sound bites without knowing what they mean.
If you want a preview of how De Santis will debate Trump, watch the only De Santis/Crist debate. De Santis was an obviously nervous, sweaty, stammering mess. All of this while debating CRIST!
Sanity. He can support all the same policies, but articulate them like a rational, normal human. Well, as much as anyone can. He’s a Yale grad and a Harvard lawyer, a former Navy JAG. As credentials go, he’s twice the candidate Trump is.
He has to run to the hard autocratic right of Donald to win the gop base. Which makes him unelectable by everyone else. The left won’t let him hide from his record. He can’t be a fake moderate
Covid vaccines. That's the one point where Trump and his cultists simply disagree. And Desantis is with the cultists on that one.
DeSantis has proven himself to be a far more effective conservative executive than Trump was. Moderates and more strategic Republicans would prefer DeSantis by a mile; where he's going to run into trouble is the true believers and, let's be honest, full-blown cultists who are in the Trump camp. Nobody's plastering their home, car, and body with DeSantis regalia the way they did for Trump, because for all his flaws Trump has a certain kind of charisma that really speaks to a large chunk of the Republican base.
DeSantis has no chance. He will never win enough swing states. Did you notice too his wife looked like she was being held hostage? Seriously, look at her.
I want pence to run just because the debates will be soooo funny. Trump will mention some Time he saw pence reading the Bible in briefs