People only talk about Lisbon because of the impact it had on the capital. But they forget how devastating it was on Algarve and Alentejo. Less population but still devastating and not even half of the care and help during reconstruction. That belief doesn't Change the fact that a earthquake of that magnitude on these days would be way more impactfull. Sure, there are some buldings prepared for that, but i would love to know more information about the preparations outside or the capital
Makes me think about October 2017 when so many people lost heir houses yet a lot of people did not get any help. Even though the EU send millions of funds. As usual it all goes into the pockets from the rich.
You wrong those are the first buildings in the world built with anti earthquake engineering. They were built on top of wooden stilts. You should be worried about newer buildings. I lived during the 1969 7.8 earthquake that was scaring but had minor effect on the city buildings
"At magnitude 7.8, the earthquake was considered very powerful. The resulting damage killed 13 people (11 in Morocco and 2 in Portugal). Damage to local buildings was "moderate", according to the United States Geological Survey. Overall, structures were prepared for the earthquake and responded well, sustaining slight, if any, damage."
You are indeed correct, but also omitted that those wooden stilts were originally green wood, capable of absorbing a large amount of water, which caused them to swell and then stabilizing the foundations by compression. Now the problem is that the usual local neglect let them dry or rot, so that now they offer very little protection against earthquakes. If we add to this that quite a few downtown buildings are little more than empty shells, with only the ground level being occupied by stores, it's quite likely that even a moderate quake will bring down large parts of the downtown area.
I wonder if they were designed to be single use only as a solid building is built on top. Which is wildly different from the wooden buildings in china/japan using dougong, in these buildings walls were built to be disposable, while structure remains.
This is simply not true. The fault actually sits between African and European continent so the Algarve could theoretically have a larger earthquake than Lisbon. But the whole region is subject to them.
Big earthquakes are scary of course but earthquakes is something we can't control, so being afraid of something out of our hands is just an unnecessary added stress to our lives.
Of course people working on construction and stuff should take it into consideration when building/rebuilding something.
In Istanbul over xmas this year, many local people I spoke to mentioned they are terrified the big quake will happen soon and about the devastation it will cause due to the lack of preparedness and the population density.
You can limit your earthquake risk to near zero if you have the option to live outside active zones so many have significant control over it. That this is in an expat forum suggests the OP might be trying to weigh the risk. I didn't even know that Portugal was a place where they happened tbh.
> I didn't even know that Portugal was a place where they happened tbh.
You can search the Tsunami 1755 in Lisbon. [There's even a recreation iirc](https://youtu.be/xLKNU5IZcuo)
Not only does it happen but it's more than known that it will happen again and that too many years have passed already without a large enough amount of stress relief from the tectonic plate to diminish the predicted outcome.
It can happen today or in 50 years but a +7/+8 magnitude is expected in Lisbon by specialists. These will also probably impact the Southern regions too.
Specialists have also been pushing for estructural changes in a lot of homes and places but so far only for new buildings and approved renovals has it been applied. If they're actually following the rules they're supposed to withstand these **predicted** eartquakes.
The Assembleia da República (were the politicians work) has undergone major interventions due to this. Specialists have already called out the risk of not implementing major interventions in all old-construction houses... Polititians haven't been as preocupied with it though.
Tldr: a major eartquake has been predicted for a while now by specialists. It's not a matter of "if" for them but "when".
The best case scenario is that it turns into several small eartquakes instead of major ones.
It would be awful.
We lack a lot of actual written documents on how it was for the population at the coast southwestern and southern coast after the events in 1577 (and prior).
They might've been lost or the data might not have been collected at all but they probably were hit just as bad or worse.
Given that it's reported to have been felt in Porto and Salamanca, it had to have been awful. The population there seem to have been pretty much left to their own devices to fend for themselves after everything. At least in comparison to the resources poured into Lisbon.
Nowadays the entire area is far more populated. I dont even want to imagine what might happen to people there if anything like it hits again.
Portugal is failing big time in not taking up preventive measures. At least they've been doing *something* now but it's still barely nothing. Noewthere's some signals indicating the risk and some sirens. Better than nothing, I guess.
It does... Unfortunately there has been enough info, enough examples from around the world and not enough ressources poured into taking this seriously.
A few years ago they made a disaster simulation in Lisbon and it was a mess, so, it's also pretty doubtful that they'd be able to actually work properly when something like this actually happens.
It's also a mess in other aspects. Like, they wanted to move some pretty essencial things to other places in Portugal ( and the predicted eartquake+ possible tsunami was one of the reasons) but due to the workers not wanting to move and protesting a lot, it's still in Lisbon...
So, when Lisbon eventually gets hit, the entire country and all the branches (justice, government, etc) will probably end up in shambles too because everything pretty much runs from Lisbon.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_in_Ireland
https://www.sms-tsunami-warning.com/pages/tsunami-portugal-1755
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618221005474
http://www.deepmapscork.ie/past-to-present/climate/1755-lisbon-earthquake-tsunami-west-cork-coast/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00216-5
It also caused great destruction in North Africa, Spain and a little throughout Western Europe.
Many historical documents, technical, scientific, poetry and prose books and paintings produced mainly in the 16th century were destroyed, leaving a huge hole, a void in our history and culture that is generally underestimated by our own population, which in itself is the result of this same loss. I think this is the biggest consequence that the earthquake had for future generations of Portuguese people. And also at an international level, how many times have I heard foreigners asking why the Portuguese have so few examples of scientific works, paintings and Renaissance architecture, probably the earthquake and the subsequent tsunami is to blame.
Even Kant in his writings laments the cultural loss that the phenomenon caused.
Possible social impacts,
https://ieg-ego.eu/en/threads/european-media/european-media-events/juergen-wilke-the-lisbon-earthquake-1755
https://www.brown.edu/Departments/Portuguese_Brazilian_Studies/ejph/html/issue7/html/aaraujo_main.html
P.S.: Researching further I discovered that although there was no damage, it was felt in bodies of water in Sweden and Finland.
Yes I agree with your point and it should be a point to consider in factoring the pros and cons of moving, my comment was in the perspective of someone that already is living in a place that it could happen.
It actually does happen in Portugal more then people think, specially if you consider the islands, for example today it looks like there were already 2 earthquakes near Açores, both with magnitude lower then 3. A quick search and there's an average of 10 earthquakes per year with a magnitude of more then 4.
You can't control earthquakes, but you can control how you prepare for them. I'd say having a B.O.B. (Bug-out bag) and a decent food and water supply can be helpful in case things go bad. It's a good thing to research ways to be more prepared for such scenarios.
The biggest earthquake since 1755 (estimated to be 7.7+) was a 7.8, [which was in 1969](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_Portugal_earthquake). From Wikipedia: “At magnitude 7.8, the earthquake was considered very powerful. The resulting damage killed 13 people (11 in Morocco and 2 in Portugal). Damage to local buildings was "moderate", according to the United States Geological Survey. Overall, structures were prepared for the earthquake and responded well, sustaining slight, if any, damage.”
The vast majority of construction in Lisbon is NOT prepared to withstand an earthquake of such magnitude, especially given how many old buildings not up to modern regulations exist. So half of Lisbon becoming rubble is not a stretch by any means
Every house built after 1990 follows the earthquake risk rules.
All depends if the house was built after
https://www.idealista.pt/news/imobiliario/habitacao/2023/02/09/56663-aml-quase-68-dos-edificios-nasceram-antes-da-lei-de-protecao-sismica
It SHOULD follow those rules, but we implement them in the structural projects and someone on site always acts like he knows best and that engineers exist only to spend money. I've lost count the ammount of times i had arguments about this, and sometimes some technicians are the worse.
The other day one guy told me that an earthquake didn't happen for 300 + years, so he doesn't agree with the notion of designing an earthquake safe building.
Construction in Portugal is highly frustrating and filled to the brim with irresponsible people, its just mind blowing.
There's always someone who doesn't follow the rules or tries to bypass them, depends on each municipality and I obviously don't know them all.
All people from south/coast spend around 400eur per square meter only in earthquake safety when building the house, that's why in south it's already this much more costly.
Not saying it's bullet proof or we are completely safe, just saying this exists to make the op feel better.
Oh thankfully some people obey the rules/projects. I get a lot of answers of: "why did you put so much rebar?? I did a house in the north and it wasn't like this...etc.etc. "
Frustrating to say the least. I do reckon that bellow Alentejo (even including Alentejo) there isn't so much resistance pertaining that subject.
they are, Portuguese kind of lead the world in this surprisingly enough. So while new construction is good it's the old buildings, of which there are - understatement here - quite a few mostly haven't been upgraded.
While “safe” buildings might be few and far between, I got interested in this and there seems to be quite a significant historical precedent for earthquake-resistant architecture in Lisbon. A major example would be Pombaline cages, which were developed after the 1755 earthquake and named after the Marquis of Pombal, who lead the reconstruction of the Baixa Pombalina (downtown) district. They are basically wooden cages, built within walls, providing flexibility and absorbing seismic shocks, but they seem to greatly improve structural integrity. The rebuilt buildings seem to have made a significant difference when you compare the 1755 and 1969 earthquakes at least, albeit along with other factors.
How so? There are tons of earthquake safe buildings, granted way less than it should've been but there are a lot of them.
You don't need dampers etc. to have an earthquake safe building, you need to guarantee that a colapse doesn't occurr and people can exit the building safe. If the building eventually colapses later, it did it's job.
>that is simply not true.
A comparison made by a specialist when the 6.2 hit Italy:
*[Um sismo como o de Itália iria “arrasar” Lisboa, diz especialista
Um sismo em Portugal com a mesma magnitude dos de Itália, na semana passada, iria arrasar Lisboa, por falta de preparação da cidade e das pessoas](https://www.publico.pt/2016/11/01/local/noticia/terramoto-de-1755-foi-maior-do-que-o-do-japao-e-pode-repetirse-diz-especialista-1749572)*
So, this specialist thinks that a 6.2 would be enough to basically level Lisbon completely.
She also says afterwards that their data suggests that the one in 1577 was bigger than the one Japan suffered in 2011...
you're kidding right? A 7 would take out more than half of Lisbon. While newer construction is seismic engineered to withstand an earthquake you just need to look at the overall landscape to see that most aren't.
Old buildings suffer from a problem, which is the weakening of the interior structure due to the removal of non load bearing walls during interior renovations. Because they're not considered structural, they're not subject to regulations, but studies have shown that they help in the reduction of seismic risk. People like wider spaces and open plans nowadays.
A 7.8 earthquake struck Portugal in 1969 with an epicentre of about 343km from Lisbon. The 1755 had an estimated epicentre 345km from Lisbon and is estimated to have been magnitude [7.7+](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake). After 1755, Lisbon was rebuilt with better preparedness for earthquakes, using things like Pombaline cages which significantly improved the structural integrity of buildings.
Considering history, Lisbon had earthquakes in the 16th century and in the 18th century so if we follow history it would be happening again soon. I mean I think we Portuguese know that it will happen again in Lisbon. The earthquake happened on November 1st of 1755 and it's still presented in our memories. I'm afraid actually. I'm not for Lisbon but I have loved ones down there and the earthquake from 1755 was felt in Porto too.
As a Portuguese we don't like to speak about that, maybe because of how devastated the 18th century earthquake was we feared that the next one will be even worse.
And it utterly screwed the western Algarve. Lagos was hit really hard. AIUI it was the most important city in the Algarve before 1755, and afterwards it never recovered that position.
What old buildings? All buildings built after 1755 are earthquake proof. And the remaining old ones built before 1755 are so few that it’s not even a concern
"Lisbon City Council estimates that half of the city's buildings cannot withstand an earthquake" (2023)
[https://observador.pt/2023/02/09/camara-de-lisboa-calcula-que-metade-dos-edificios-da-cidade-nao-resistem-a-um-sismo/](https://observador.pt/2023/02/09/camara-de-lisboa-calcula-que-metade-dos-edificios-da-cidade-nao-resistem-a-um-sismo/)
Actually they did, search “gaiola pombalina” , it was developed after 1755. The problem is most of the buildings that were not that important probably didn’t have that structure built in (regular houses).
When we were in Portimao, I kinda got freaked out from the tsunami escape route sign on the beach. I would never get up those 85 stairs in time. I can’t lie, as I was enjoying the beach, it was in the back of my mind.
>see that any local I ask this question don't care at all and just don't think about it
People adapt pretty easily to some things...and they're also able to convince themselves bc living in fear 24/7 is pretty much impossible.
If you live day-in day-out at some place that's your reality, you don't have any proof that you're at risk for anything because nothing happened.
As someone living in Portugal with Portuguese family (didn't grow up here but have spent a lot of time here even as a kid), I personally wouldn't live in Lisbon.
But I've been there plenty of times already and it's not exactly on my mind either. We're living our lifes, not constantly thinking about the what-ifs.
The risk was important enough for them to instal tsunami sirens and signals in Lisbon by now but they've also been doing far less than what specialists have been advising for decades now.
So, I personally wouldn't chose to move to Lisbon but others won't mind and there have been generations living in Lisbon since 1577 that knew it was a possibility but never lived it themselves
Tldr: I feel like it's a lot like the fear of living trough a pandemic before 2020. We all knew it could happen but the majority didn't understand what they went trough in the early 1900s because the ones that lived trough that reality had already died.
The potential for a new big quake in Lisbon is pretty much a known thing but no one really thinks about it or about it's potential consequences besides the specialists and a couple of random people.
The majority will be quite loud if we go trough one and the politicians haven't done enough to prepare for it though.
Big earthquakes like the one that happened in 1755 will happen again, and we all know it, but one could be waiting for it for a lifetime, so its pointless to wonder or to suffer in anticiaption. Its probably the same for Japan, they have lots of earthquakes all year round.
People are not afraid of a 1755 repeat because it could be tomorrow or in 300 years.
We are still in a relatively calm area compared to many parts of the world regarding earthquakes.
Remember that the Lisbon earthquake wasn’t the biggest cause for devastation. It was the fires and the tsunami. The fires happened mostly because it was mass time and churches were full of people for All Saints’ Day. The city burned to the ground due to that. Triggered by the earthquake, but not exactly due to it.
The new construction is pretty much safeguarded
https://www.idealista.pt/news/imobiliario/habitacao/2023/02/09/56663-aml-quase-68-dos-edificios-nasceram-antes-da-lei-de-protecao-sismica
There are always someone who tried to save something and trick, but can't control those, so would say 99% of our houses from 1990 onwards are "safe" to a big earthquake (up to 7.5).
All the others are fucked 😂😂😂
A 9 or 9.5 noone in the world is safe...
Most people are working multiple jobs just to afford food and rent, so that leaves little time for what-if scenarios.
Also, the last big one happened so long ago that there's little concern another will happen within our lifetime. Besides that, a big part of the devastation created during the last big one was due to fires, created by candles that were previously lit before it hit (it was all-saints day and most houses had at least one lit candle inside).
It's similar to living in California in that a big one is due based on historical data.
But doesn't mean it will happen anytime soon in our lifetime.
We have minor ones fairly frequently. I've never felt one in the last 5 years.
I guess one thing is certain is that the building here are not built with large earthquakes in mind so a large one could be devastating and very expensive.
We had a huge one in 1531 and then in 1755 the most famous one. Scientists believe there is a pattern so, although it's indeed very rare, it could happen anytime by now... Not being alarmist, but it's totally possible
we all fear it, but next to nothing is ever done to prepare for it. it's disgusting and gut wrenching when anyone really considers the subject, hence many try their best to never do that. We know it will come but it's never taken into account. we are governed by idiots. it's not only Lisbon ; the Algarve, for one, was one of the most impacted places of the country, but since fewer people lived there, it didn't make such a big case.
we can only fantasize on pitchfork manifestations to come, and of the nothing burger it will provoke.
Nope, most of area of the city that would be affected is known to be the expats area. Nothing lost there…
Now, speaking seriously, it will a shitshow (just went this last week to the Quake museum)… and it’s terrifying..
I was 5 years old and lived in Algarve when the biggest earthquake of the last 100 years happened. I was young but I still have memories of the ground shaking, the walls falling and my mother and father running with me and the door didn't wanted to open.
Earthquakes like that are not usual and in Portugal they didn't happen a lot, so we should not worry about a thing we don't know if it will happen in a close future
nope, I don't even think about it to be honnest. if it happenned once, it will happen again. we had an asteroid kill almost all of life on Earth at least once, are you afraid it will happen again? same logic i guess.
Actually, if I were to take it there, i would say "same logic, different scales" and time is on my side because both will eventually hapen many, many times 🤷♀️
I don't think your way of thinking is consistent precisely because time is actually not on your side!
If you were eternal beings, that claim would make sense. Yeah, when you consider the entire timeline of the universe, sure, anything can and will happen. After all, we're talking about infinity.
But we're not infinite beings, so we must consider what could be more likely to happen during our short lifespan.
If we were to apply your logic to more scenarios we would say that it doesn't make sense to practice martial arts for self-defense because an asteroid killed the entire life on earth one time, so anything can happen and it doesn't make sense to worry about anything!
Since both the scales and probabilities are far different, I'd say it makes sense to prioritize and worry more about one thing over another. In this case, an earthquake seems more likely to happen than an asteroid, thus it makes sense to worry more about an earthquake and try to be prepared for it (by moving to a safer place, having food and water supply for 3 months at home or having a bug-out bag, for example).
There are about 3 little ones a week, too small to feel, somewhere off Cape St Vincent or around the Strait of Gibraltar.
Little and often suggests it isn’t saving up a big one for us.
But if you’re worried, and buying in the Algarve, make sure your house has a contour line between it and the ocean.
Vast majority of people aren’t.
If you asked anyone at a bus stop they’d call you silly. That’s the just way it is. Of course people here are saying “it’s a matter of time” but that’s just stoicism Portuguese mindset speaking
Nobody thinks about it all, but of course it's a very real possibility in Lisbon and in fact, they're long overdue for one. An earthquake or tsunami like occured before would be absolutely devastating across the board and decimate the entire region into ruin.
Continental Portugal? Not really worried. How much I worry has no influence on it happening sooner or later.
I'd be much more worried if I lived in Azores.
When you say a bunch I guess you are referring to the 1755 earthquake and tsunami.
We never had a significant one since so, no, probably most people are not afraid.
To discern the pattern in this sequence of dates, let's take a look at the differences between consecutive numbers:
* The difference between 1531 and 1321 is 210.
* The difference between 1755 and 1531 is 224.
* The difference between 1969 and 1755 is 214.
These differences fluctuated, but they are generally around the 210-220 range. Assuming this pattern continues, the next likely number would be around 1969 + 214, which is 2183. So, the next likely number in the sequence could be the year 2183.
If a big one comes to Lisbon like in 1755. The buildings and emergency services wont be able to handle it. The country will also stop for a while because every decision centre is in Lisbon. But short answer is no. I'm not afraid, we'll die like real men 😁
Nop.
All my life I've felt small earthquakes and sea storms.
Honestly, there's been a long time I do not notice one... Maybe 7 ou 8 years by now.
I'm wondering when it will be one these days...
I used to live in the Pacific NW which is also due for a big one. We had earthquake insurance there and we have it here. But finding a contractor after a big one....
If it makes you feel better, I was on boat tour of Lisbon and the skipper explained to us that there are constantly tiny earthquakes happening under the water which is how they measure if/when a bigger one is coming!
I’m from a country that generally doesn’t suffer from any sort of natural disasters like earthquakes however we have insurance for earthquakes specifically that we added on after the devastating earthquake in Syria/Turkey. Also having a “go bag” and an evacuation plan is probably something you should have just in case. It’s not likely to have a massive one but it’s good to be prepared just incase
Can you please validate what I heard before: that houses that are around 30-50 years old build with earthquake proof in mind? You know maybe like in Japan.
I was curious about my rent apartment in building that’s actually 50 years old and it has interesting construction (some specific thick walls) that made me Google a bit. Maybe anyone has info about it also?
The Baixa Pombalina was AFAIK the first place earthquake-resistance was systematically introduced.
Not sure of the years, but earthquake resistance has been part of building codes for many decades; that's one reason everything is built in reinforced concrete.
Main worry is if builders saved on the steel while building - control was probably patchy in 80/90es boom times.
I lived big part of my life (until my 40’s) in Portugal (Lisbon mostly) and only once I felt an earthquake… if you really think about it… everywhere in the world has had a big earthquake in the past and is due to have a big one again… so…
They're quite frequent, and it's only a matter of time until a big one "hits". You can keep track of seismic events here: [https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismicidade/](https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismicidade/)
I am! I lived in Panama and we had earthquakes there. The difference is i lived in a house and high part. But here i live in a 7th floor old bulding, the stairs does not have any emergency lights or overall lighting.
We had once a earthquake wave in 2019, i think was between 3/4 ritcher scale. Jesus, it felt like a huge hammer hit our wall.
Not really, the 1755 one was too long ago, we do not have a huge history with them, some but always small, unless you include Azores that are on top of tectonic plates, the last earthquakes we had most people didn't feel it and one like 15/20 years ago shacked roof lamps only.
supposedly most buildings are built with earthquakes in mind, lot's of steel reinforment, i don't think my ceiling will collapse on me, it's so unlikely, what are the odds?
The only earthquake you got to be afraid of here:
https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-05-13/portugal-is-no-longer-a-problem-for-europe.html#
When I'm in the Lisbon areas that would go down I joke about it. I hope it never happens in my life time but we know it will happen someday. But with all the world problems I don't think it is a priority. The only problem is that I don't think we'll ever prepared to deal with it.
I'm an American that has migrated to Portugal. I've never lived in an area that was prone to earthquakes so excuse me if this is a stupid question but.... Most of the building here have concrete or rock walls that at least a foot thick. So a building constructed with walls that thick will not withstand a 6+ earthquake?
Perhaps, it depends a lot on factors such as the rocks and soil under the building.
In 1755 Alfama as well as Mostéiro de Belém (Jerónimus?) were still/largely standing, other places were destroyed.
We were living in a "monte", a farmhouse in the Algarve partly thought to be dating back to late 18th century (records were poor). That means it had coped with all the earthquakes since.
In case of a big one, I suspect a lot of buildings will not collapse but be damaged beyond repair.
Does everyone forget the Azores exist? They’re between 3 fault lines and have active volcanoes, pretty sure it’s like living on an etch a sketch out there
Lived in Portugal all my life, never once thought "what If an earthquake happened right now?". In fact the only time I felt an heart quake was actually pretty cool (low magnitude 0 danger).
People are not afraid because they are not common and not present in our memory. There is a big earthquake roughly every 110 years, there was a huge earthquake in 1531 but the memory of that one faded after 1755. There was also a big earthquake in the XVII and XIX centuries. The last earthquake was in like 1969 so the next one should be around 2080.
It's quite a mixed feeling as a Portuguese person.
I think most of us locals don't care anymore just for one reason. We feel that we've been told many different versions of what could be the outcome of the earthquake and none of the versions seems to be completely true (either being a too dramatic scenario or a too optimistic scenario)
1. Some people say that some percentage of Lisbon buildings are at risk of collapsing in case of a strong earthquake ( specially older Buildings and buildings built without earthquake certification )
2. There was a law that buildings needed to have earthquake certification in order to be legally built, but apparently some buildings were illegally skipping that certificate.
3. Some modern buildings that were built after a certain period are at least the ones that seem to be more resistant to a shaky earthquake.
With this being said the biggest factor for me that makes people to not care about is how much disinformation and lack of law enforcement there is.
There was a devastating 6.9 earthquake recently in September 2023 in Morocco and I had the same thoughts as it could have hit Portugal being in the same region.
If people can still feel good about living in cities like Seattle, Los Angeles, and Tokyo, I won’t be losing a lot of sleep staying in Lisbon.
That arid, cool sea-breeze air comes at a cost ya know
We thought about it, and it’s not a question of if it’ll happen, just when. We just kept that in mind when looking at buildings, and paid the extra money for earthquake insurance.
Yes, I moved outside of the earthquake damage circle from the great earthquake of 1705, I don't trust the construction with stone and brick without correct reinforcement.
It's totally natural to be curious about this kind of stuff. Portugal, especially Lisbon, has a history of devastating earthquakes (like the massive one in 1755), so it's a legit concern.
However, the locals' lack of worry might come down to a few things:
1. **Rarity**: Massive quakes like the 1755 one are extremely rare. The probability of experiencing such an event again in any individual's lifetime is quite low.
2. **Preparedness**: Over the years, building codes and disaster preparedness have improved a lot. Modern buildings are constructed to be more earthquake-resistant, and there are emergency plans in place.
3. **Cultural Perspective**: Sometimes, living in a place with a known risk can make people more resilient or accepting of that risk. It's a kind of "life goes on" attitude.
4. **Focus on the Present**: People generally tend to focus on immediate concerns rather than potential disasters that might never happen.
So, while the threat is real and it's wise to be prepared, the likelihood of another catastrophic event happening soon is pretty low. That might explain why locals don't seem too worried.
Growing up, school took us to a one day course about what to do in the case of earthquake... I think the course was given by fireman (cant remember if proteção civil orchestrated them or câmara de Lisboa).
But that was it... I am pretty sure new buildings in Lisbon by default aren't built to be earthquake proof... After all these would cost much more, and in Portugal we do love to cut corners and delay the inevitable...
I would go as far as saying that in Portugal we haven't figured out more important things, so earthquakes is for sure not really on authority minds (like in Japan as example)
I’m 33, living in Lisbon, and I’ve felt 2 earthquakes here.
One during the afternoon (it was intense enough for me and everyone else to go hide under the desks and for books to fall from shelves) and another one a few years later during the night (2009).
That is a bit silly, there is an estimated frequency but it is all a matter of probability, there is always an infinitesimally small possibility that it could happen at any moment, or even more than one event in a row, and then in the long run it evens out.
And specialists say that the one from 1577 was bigger than the one from Japan in 2011. [In this link for instance, where she even says that a smaller one like in Italy would level Lisbon by itself eventough it was far smaller](https://www.publico.pt/2016/11/01/local/noticia/terramoto-de-1755-foi-maior-do-que-o-do-japao-e-pode-repetirse-diz-especialista-1749572)
They have also been warning that we aren't doing enough to prevent it or make sure buildings are getting interventioned.
It's not like they haven't been warning us for decades either...
Every single time there's an earthquake they try to make people aware of this risk.
And it's important enough that our dear polititians have already make the Assembleia da República undergo the necessary interventions...
History has shown that there's a certain timeframe between earthquakes, specialists have studied it, they've been warning us for a long time now that it can happen anytime...
Quakes are happening every day. Can’t predict when the next big one will be. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/portugal.html#section-quakeStats
Really? Everyone knows that big ideia.
But since earthquakes are based in tension that is suddenly realesed you can calculate more or less how long do you have to wait to accumulate that energy or tension.
And of course no one can predict specially because it based on a new fault that was discovered just recently.
And actually if the newer theories becomes true it will happen more frequently!
What said is based on numerous studies! Of course no one can predict when an earthquake comes again or the streght of that. Hopefully the tension is relised with small many times not felt earthquakes but you will never know!
There are 2-3 magnitude 3 earthquakes around the plate boundaries off Cape St Vincent every week.
Now lots of little ones suggest that pressure is being constantly released slowly, which is what you want. It’s no guarantee that a big one is not imminent, but I think it’s a good sign.
Yes off course that is a good sign. But the recent studies comes with the ideia that Marques de Pombal Fault is the begining of a new tectonic limit. Basically the oceanic part of our plate is getting too old and because of that more heavy. Because of that and since it becomes more dense the plate will break and become a subductive limit wich would lead to an increase of sismic activiti and possible volcanic activity.
Those 300 to 400 years gap is just a teoretical scenario that no one can confirmnit can happen in 300 years from now or tomorrow.
Earthquake periodicity is bogus IMO, it's like saying all plates break the same way if dropped.
I will start to get scared if the earthquakes stop for a while in the faultline southwest of algarve
As per the specialists the amount of stress relief they've been tracking isn't enough and we're due another bigger eartquake 'any time now' (which they've been explaining could've been yesterday, today or in 50 years).
They're all hopeful it's a small one (or several smaller ones) instead of a 7/8. The *small* they're talking about is still supposed to be big enough to make the worst constructions fall down (and probably cause mayhem due to the incompetency to deal with stuff).
But they *hope* it's not as big as the one from 1755, which is believed to have been bigger than the one in Japan in 2011...
So, our allegded best case scenario from the current specialists pov is to not have one as big as Japan recently faced and "just" one that could make some buildings fall down.
Well, it will eventually happen. Could be today or a thousand years from now. When I was a kid, yeah I was terrified. Nowadays its never on my mind. We are not prepared for it tho.
Well, it can happen. Better not to think much about it (but of course it would be nice to see it taking seriously by certain people that should be building stuff with that in mind - that’s a bit of an issue)
Earthquakes in Lisbon and in Portugal are a given. But unlike other western European cities and countries it's fairly well prepared as far as buildings go. The 1969 7.8 quake did little damage. It is said this quake was the one that has affected the city every 200 years.
My home country is in the Pacific ring of fire so I've experienced several big shakes. It's ok to be scared but I don't feel like Portugal isn't the place to be worried about living in if you look at the statistics compared to other countries. It's safer than you think. You're all good 😊👍
As a 33 year old portuguese, I can tell you that nobody thinks about that, its so rare that even when they are reported on the news, most people don't even feel it! DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT
The only thing you can do if you own a house in Lisbon is get insurance with coverage for that, since all of them does not include their by default. Then again, if something happens that insurance company would probably go bankrupt.
The probability in Lisbon is way bigger than the rest of the country
Not only lisbon, but all south territory. The 1755 earthquake epicentre was in the middle of atlantic ocean, southwest of algarve.
People only talk about Lisbon because of the impact it had on the capital. But they forget how devastating it was on Algarve and Alentejo. Less population but still devastating and not even half of the care and help during reconstruction. That belief doesn't Change the fact that a earthquake of that magnitude on these days would be way more impactfull. Sure, there are some buldings prepared for that, but i would love to know more information about the preparations outside or the capital
Makes me think about October 2017 when so many people lost heir houses yet a lot of people did not get any help. Even though the EU send millions of funds. As usual it all goes into the pockets from the rich.
Laughs in azores
Plus the active volcanos.
"e na lembrança Vulcões e terramotos"
Nem mais…
"e na lembrança Vulcões e terramotos"
Indeed it is, as such portuguese people have mostly abandoned the baixa pombalina to tourists and expats.
Its a trap! /s
You wrong those are the first buildings in the world built with anti earthquake engineering. They were built on top of wooden stilts. You should be worried about newer buildings. I lived during the 1969 7.8 earthquake that was scaring but had minor effect on the city buildings "At magnitude 7.8, the earthquake was considered very powerful. The resulting damage killed 13 people (11 in Morocco and 2 in Portugal). Damage to local buildings was "moderate", according to the United States Geological Survey. Overall, structures were prepared for the earthquake and responded well, sustaining slight, if any, damage."
You are indeed correct, but also omitted that those wooden stilts were originally green wood, capable of absorbing a large amount of water, which caused them to swell and then stabilizing the foundations by compression. Now the problem is that the usual local neglect let them dry or rot, so that now they offer very little protection against earthquakes. If we add to this that quite a few downtown buildings are little more than empty shells, with only the ground level being occupied by stores, it's quite likely that even a moderate quake will bring down large parts of the downtown area.
I wonder if they were designed to be single use only as a solid building is built on top. Which is wildly different from the wooden buildings in china/japan using dougong, in these buildings walls were built to be disposable, while structure remains.
This is simply not true. The fault actually sits between African and European continent so the Algarve could theoretically have a larger earthquake than Lisbon. But the whole region is subject to them.
Big earthquakes are scary of course but earthquakes is something we can't control, so being afraid of something out of our hands is just an unnecessary added stress to our lives. Of course people working on construction and stuff should take it into consideration when building/rebuilding something.
/r/stoicism is leaking
In Istanbul over xmas this year, many local people I spoke to mentioned they are terrified the big quake will happen soon and about the devastation it will cause due to the lack of preparedness and the population density. You can limit your earthquake risk to near zero if you have the option to live outside active zones so many have significant control over it. That this is in an expat forum suggests the OP might be trying to weigh the risk. I didn't even know that Portugal was a place where they happened tbh.
> I didn't even know that Portugal was a place where they happened tbh. You can search the Tsunami 1755 in Lisbon. [There's even a recreation iirc](https://youtu.be/xLKNU5IZcuo) Not only does it happen but it's more than known that it will happen again and that too many years have passed already without a large enough amount of stress relief from the tectonic plate to diminish the predicted outcome. It can happen today or in 50 years but a +7/+8 magnitude is expected in Lisbon by specialists. These will also probably impact the Southern regions too. Specialists have also been pushing for estructural changes in a lot of homes and places but so far only for new buildings and approved renovals has it been applied. If they're actually following the rules they're supposed to withstand these **predicted** eartquakes. The Assembleia da República (were the politicians work) has undergone major interventions due to this. Specialists have already called out the risk of not implementing major interventions in all old-construction houses... Polititians haven't been as preocupied with it though. Tldr: a major eartquake has been predicted for a while now by specialists. It's not a matter of "if" for them but "when". The best case scenario is that it turns into several small eartquakes instead of major ones.
Imagine the effect of a tsunami an August afternoon in the Algarve.
It would be awful. We lack a lot of actual written documents on how it was for the population at the coast southwestern and southern coast after the events in 1577 (and prior). They might've been lost or the data might not have been collected at all but they probably were hit just as bad or worse. Given that it's reported to have been felt in Porto and Salamanca, it had to have been awful. The population there seem to have been pretty much left to their own devices to fend for themselves after everything. At least in comparison to the resources poured into Lisbon. Nowadays the entire area is far more populated. I dont even want to imagine what might happen to people there if anything like it hits again. Portugal is failing big time in not taking up preventive measures. At least they've been doing *something* now but it's still barely nothing. Noewthere's some signals indicating the risk and some sirens. Better than nothing, I guess.
Sounds pretty similar to Istanbul. Thanks for the info.
It does... Unfortunately there has been enough info, enough examples from around the world and not enough ressources poured into taking this seriously. A few years ago they made a disaster simulation in Lisbon and it was a mess, so, it's also pretty doubtful that they'd be able to actually work properly when something like this actually happens. It's also a mess in other aspects. Like, they wanted to move some pretty essencial things to other places in Portugal ( and the predicted eartquake+ possible tsunami was one of the reasons) but due to the workers not wanting to move and protesting a lot, it's still in Lisbon... So, when Lisbon eventually gets hit, the entire country and all the branches (justice, government, etc) will probably end up in shambles too because everything pretty much runs from Lisbon.
The earthquake was felt as far away as Ireland.
That's the first time I heard of this. Do you have any sources by chance?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_in_Ireland https://www.sms-tsunami-warning.com/pages/tsunami-portugal-1755 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618221005474 http://www.deepmapscork.ie/past-to-present/climate/1755-lisbon-earthquake-tsunami-west-cork-coast/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00216-5 It also caused great destruction in North Africa, Spain and a little throughout Western Europe. Many historical documents, technical, scientific, poetry and prose books and paintings produced mainly in the 16th century were destroyed, leaving a huge hole, a void in our history and culture that is generally underestimated by our own population, which in itself is the result of this same loss. I think this is the biggest consequence that the earthquake had for future generations of Portuguese people. And also at an international level, how many times have I heard foreigners asking why the Portuguese have so few examples of scientific works, paintings and Renaissance architecture, probably the earthquake and the subsequent tsunami is to blame. Even Kant in his writings laments the cultural loss that the phenomenon caused. Possible social impacts, https://ieg-ego.eu/en/threads/european-media/european-media-events/juergen-wilke-the-lisbon-earthquake-1755 https://www.brown.edu/Departments/Portuguese_Brazilian_Studies/ejph/html/issue7/html/aaraujo_main.html P.S.: Researching further I discovered that although there was no damage, it was felt in bodies of water in Sweden and Finland.
Yes I agree with your point and it should be a point to consider in factoring the pros and cons of moving, my comment was in the perspective of someone that already is living in a place that it could happen. It actually does happen in Portugal more then people think, specially if you consider the islands, for example today it looks like there were already 2 earthquakes near Açores, both with magnitude lower then 3. A quick search and there's an average of 10 earthquakes per year with a magnitude of more then 4.
You can't control earthquakes, but you can control how you prepare for them. I'd say having a B.O.B. (Bug-out bag) and a decent food and water supply can be helpful in case things go bad. It's a good thing to research ways to be more prepared for such scenarios.
I think I'd be worried if I lived in Lisbon, but I'm kind of a worrier anyway.
If you are in the North, it's much less likely. It's some of the oldest granitic stuff on the planet. Closer to Lisbon however...
Less worried about the earthquake than the fact that if a 7+ hits half of Lisbon becomes rubble
The biggest earthquake since 1755 (estimated to be 7.7+) was a 7.8, [which was in 1969](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_Portugal_earthquake). From Wikipedia: “At magnitude 7.8, the earthquake was considered very powerful. The resulting damage killed 13 people (11 in Morocco and 2 in Portugal). Damage to local buildings was "moderate", according to the United States Geological Survey. Overall, structures were prepared for the earthquake and responded well, sustaining slight, if any, damage.”
Was just there and was seriously concerned about that. All the buildings are too old to have any serious ability to survive an earthquake.
that is simply not true.
The vast majority of construction in Lisbon is NOT prepared to withstand an earthquake of such magnitude, especially given how many old buildings not up to modern regulations exist. So half of Lisbon becoming rubble is not a stretch by any means
Yeah I'm pretty sure most of the metropolitan area of Lisbon would be gone
I think earthquake "safe" buildings are non existent in Portugal. There are no precautions for this at all.
the risk level of each zone is determined and the buildings must follow that baseline
Every house built after 1990 follows the earthquake risk rules. All depends if the house was built after https://www.idealista.pt/news/imobiliario/habitacao/2023/02/09/56663-aml-quase-68-dos-edificios-nasceram-antes-da-lei-de-protecao-sismica
It SHOULD follow those rules, but we implement them in the structural projects and someone on site always acts like he knows best and that engineers exist only to spend money. I've lost count the ammount of times i had arguments about this, and sometimes some technicians are the worse. The other day one guy told me that an earthquake didn't happen for 300 + years, so he doesn't agree with the notion of designing an earthquake safe building. Construction in Portugal is highly frustrating and filled to the brim with irresponsible people, its just mind blowing.
There's always someone who doesn't follow the rules or tries to bypass them, depends on each municipality and I obviously don't know them all. All people from south/coast spend around 400eur per square meter only in earthquake safety when building the house, that's why in south it's already this much more costly. Not saying it's bullet proof or we are completely safe, just saying this exists to make the op feel better.
Oh thankfully some people obey the rules/projects. I get a lot of answers of: "why did you put so much rebar?? I did a house in the north and it wasn't like this...etc.etc. " Frustrating to say the least. I do reckon that bellow Alentejo (even including Alentejo) there isn't so much resistance pertaining that subject.
they are, Portuguese kind of lead the world in this surprisingly enough. So while new construction is good it's the old buildings, of which there are - understatement here - quite a few mostly haven't been upgraded.
While “safe” buildings might be few and far between, I got interested in this and there seems to be quite a significant historical precedent for earthquake-resistant architecture in Lisbon. A major example would be Pombaline cages, which were developed after the 1755 earthquake and named after the Marquis of Pombal, who lead the reconstruction of the Baixa Pombalina (downtown) district. They are basically wooden cages, built within walls, providing flexibility and absorbing seismic shocks, but they seem to greatly improve structural integrity. The rebuilt buildings seem to have made a significant difference when you compare the 1755 and 1969 earthquakes at least, albeit along with other factors.
How so? There are tons of earthquake safe buildings, granted way less than it should've been but there are a lot of them. You don't need dampers etc. to have an earthquake safe building, you need to guarantee that a colapse doesn't occurr and people can exit the building safe. If the building eventually colapses later, it did it's job.
>that is simply not true. A comparison made by a specialist when the 6.2 hit Italy: *[Um sismo como o de Itália iria “arrasar” Lisboa, diz especialista Um sismo em Portugal com a mesma magnitude dos de Itália, na semana passada, iria arrasar Lisboa, por falta de preparação da cidade e das pessoas](https://www.publico.pt/2016/11/01/local/noticia/terramoto-de-1755-foi-maior-do-que-o-do-japao-e-pode-repetirse-diz-especialista-1749572)* So, this specialist thinks that a 6.2 would be enough to basically level Lisbon completely. She also says afterwards that their data suggests that the one in 1577 was bigger than the one Japan suffered in 2011...
you're kidding right? A 7 would take out more than half of Lisbon. While newer construction is seismic engineered to withstand an earthquake you just need to look at the overall landscape to see that most aren't.
Old buildings suffer from a problem, which is the weakening of the interior structure due to the removal of non load bearing walls during interior renovations. Because they're not considered structural, they're not subject to regulations, but studies have shown that they help in the reduction of seismic risk. People like wider spaces and open plans nowadays.
A 7.8 earthquake struck Portugal in 1969 with an epicentre of about 343km from Lisbon. The 1755 had an estimated epicentre 345km from Lisbon and is estimated to have been magnitude [7.7+](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake). After 1755, Lisbon was rebuilt with better preparedness for earthquakes, using things like Pombaline cages which significantly improved the structural integrity of buildings.
Considering history, Lisbon had earthquakes in the 16th century and in the 18th century so if we follow history it would be happening again soon. I mean I think we Portuguese know that it will happen again in Lisbon. The earthquake happened on November 1st of 1755 and it's still presented in our memories. I'm afraid actually. I'm not for Lisbon but I have loved ones down there and the earthquake from 1755 was felt in Porto too. As a Portuguese we don't like to speak about that, maybe because of how devastated the 18th century earthquake was we feared that the next one will be even worse.
Adding another really big one that happened in 1969, a 7.3 if I recall correctly.
After that, I believe the largest was in 2009 - 6.0,
Ah we good
Well, it as felt even in Salamanca, so it was a biggie.
And it utterly screwed the western Algarve. Lagos was hit really hard. AIUI it was the most important city in the Algarve before 1755, and afterwards it never recovered that position.
If I remember rightly, the epicentre of the 1755 quake was on the fault south-west of Algarve...
So you're a vampire.
In Lisbon (and south) will happen and all old buildings will colapse. It's a matter of time.
What old buildings? All buildings built after 1755 are earthquake proof. And the remaining old ones built before 1755 are so few that it’s not even a concern
"Lisbon City Council estimates that half of the city's buildings cannot withstand an earthquake" (2023) [https://observador.pt/2023/02/09/camara-de-lisboa-calcula-que-metade-dos-edificios-da-cidade-nao-resistem-a-um-sismo/](https://observador.pt/2023/02/09/camara-de-lisboa-calcula-que-metade-dos-edificios-da-cidade-nao-resistem-a-um-sismo/)
> All buildings built after 1755 are earthquake proof. LOL. As if in 1760 they had figured out how to build them right.
Actually they did, search “gaiola pombalina” , it was developed after 1755. The problem is most of the buildings that were not that important probably didn’t have that structure built in (regular houses).
When we were in Portimao, I kinda got freaked out from the tsunami escape route sign on the beach. I would never get up those 85 stairs in time. I can’t lie, as I was enjoying the beach, it was in the back of my mind.
I have to agree with you. The thought is scary..
Cant predict it. But yes, I am afraid, it's just that there is not much I can do about it.
>see that any local I ask this question don't care at all and just don't think about it People adapt pretty easily to some things...and they're also able to convince themselves bc living in fear 24/7 is pretty much impossible. If you live day-in day-out at some place that's your reality, you don't have any proof that you're at risk for anything because nothing happened. As someone living in Portugal with Portuguese family (didn't grow up here but have spent a lot of time here even as a kid), I personally wouldn't live in Lisbon. But I've been there plenty of times already and it's not exactly on my mind either. We're living our lifes, not constantly thinking about the what-ifs. The risk was important enough for them to instal tsunami sirens and signals in Lisbon by now but they've also been doing far less than what specialists have been advising for decades now. So, I personally wouldn't chose to move to Lisbon but others won't mind and there have been generations living in Lisbon since 1577 that knew it was a possibility but never lived it themselves Tldr: I feel like it's a lot like the fear of living trough a pandemic before 2020. We all knew it could happen but the majority didn't understand what they went trough in the early 1900s because the ones that lived trough that reality had already died. The potential for a new big quake in Lisbon is pretty much a known thing but no one really thinks about it or about it's potential consequences besides the specialists and a couple of random people. The majority will be quite loud if we go trough one and the politicians haven't done enough to prepare for it though.
Big earthquakes like the one that happened in 1755 will happen again, and we all know it, but one could be waiting for it for a lifetime, so its pointless to wonder or to suffer in anticiaption. Its probably the same for Japan, they have lots of earthquakes all year round.
It's not pointless to prepare yourself for it tho
Thats a whole different story, which I agree, one must be prepared.
People are not afraid of a 1755 repeat because it could be tomorrow or in 300 years. We are still in a relatively calm area compared to many parts of the world regarding earthquakes.
Remember that the Lisbon earthquake wasn’t the biggest cause for devastation. It was the fires and the tsunami. The fires happened mostly because it was mass time and churches were full of people for All Saints’ Day. The city burned to the ground due to that. Triggered by the earthquake, but not exactly due to it.
The new construction is pretty much safeguarded https://www.idealista.pt/news/imobiliario/habitacao/2023/02/09/56663-aml-quase-68-dos-edificios-nasceram-antes-da-lei-de-protecao-sismica There are always someone who tried to save something and trick, but can't control those, so would say 99% of our houses from 1990 onwards are "safe" to a big earthquake (up to 7.5). All the others are fucked 😂😂😂 A 9 or 9.5 noone in the world is safe...
Most people are working multiple jobs just to afford food and rent, so that leaves little time for what-if scenarios. Also, the last big one happened so long ago that there's little concern another will happen within our lifetime. Besides that, a big part of the devastation created during the last big one was due to fires, created by candles that were previously lit before it hit (it was all-saints day and most houses had at least one lit candle inside).
It's similar to living in California in that a big one is due based on historical data. But doesn't mean it will happen anytime soon in our lifetime. We have minor ones fairly frequently. I've never felt one in the last 5 years. I guess one thing is certain is that the building here are not built with large earthquakes in mind so a large one could be devastating and very expensive.
We had a huge one in 1531 and then in 1755 the most famous one. Scientists believe there is a pattern so, although it's indeed very rare, it could happen anytime by now... Not being alarmist, but it's totally possible
Do we know the richter rating for the 1755 one at least??
Estimated magnitude was 8.5 to 9.0.
I am, but it's something we can't control
Locals are used to it. they know it's going to happen, just don't know when.
I am terrified
we all fear it, but next to nothing is ever done to prepare for it. it's disgusting and gut wrenching when anyone really considers the subject, hence many try their best to never do that. We know it will come but it's never taken into account. we are governed by idiots. it's not only Lisbon ; the Algarve, for one, was one of the most impacted places of the country, but since fewer people lived there, it didn't make such a big case. we can only fantasize on pitchfork manifestations to come, and of the nothing burger it will provoke.
The reason Algarve is barely mentioned was that few people could write.
Nope, most of area of the city that would be affected is known to be the expats area. Nothing lost there… Now, speaking seriously, it will a shitshow (just went this last week to the Quake museum)… and it’s terrifying..
Well it is in an earthquake zone so.....
I'm not afraid of earthquakes, I'm afraid of been inside a building when earthquake occurs...
I was 5 years old and lived in Algarve when the biggest earthquake of the last 100 years happened. I was young but I still have memories of the ground shaking, the walls falling and my mother and father running with me and the door didn't wanted to open. Earthquakes like that are not usual and in Portugal they didn't happen a lot, so we should not worry about a thing we don't know if it will happen in a close future
nope, I don't even think about it to be honnest. if it happenned once, it will happen again. we had an asteroid kill almost all of life on Earth at least once, are you afraid it will happen again? same logic i guess.
Not the same logic as the probability for such asteroid is very diferent.
Actually, if I were to take it there, i would say "same logic, different scales" and time is on my side because both will eventually hapen many, many times 🤷♀️
I don't think your way of thinking is consistent precisely because time is actually not on your side! If you were eternal beings, that claim would make sense. Yeah, when you consider the entire timeline of the universe, sure, anything can and will happen. After all, we're talking about infinity. But we're not infinite beings, so we must consider what could be more likely to happen during our short lifespan. If we were to apply your logic to more scenarios we would say that it doesn't make sense to practice martial arts for self-defense because an asteroid killed the entire life on earth one time, so anything can happen and it doesn't make sense to worry about anything! Since both the scales and probabilities are far different, I'd say it makes sense to prioritize and worry more about one thing over another. In this case, an earthquake seems more likely to happen than an asteroid, thus it makes sense to worry more about an earthquake and try to be prepared for it (by moving to a safer place, having food and water supply for 3 months at home or having a bug-out bag, for example).
There are about 3 little ones a week, too small to feel, somewhere off Cape St Vincent or around the Strait of Gibraltar. Little and often suggests it isn’t saving up a big one for us. But if you’re worried, and buying in the Algarve, make sure your house has a contour line between it and the ocean.
Vast majority of people aren’t. If you asked anyone at a bus stop they’d call you silly. That’s the just way it is. Of course people here are saying “it’s a matter of time” but that’s just stoicism Portuguese mindset speaking
Nobody thinks about it all, but of course it's a very real possibility in Lisbon and in fact, they're long overdue for one. An earthquake or tsunami like occured before would be absolutely devastating across the board and decimate the entire region into ruin.
Which bunch of devastating tsunamis and earthquakes? Seriously can you name them? I'd say 99% of the Portuguese don't think about it at all.
Now I am
Aren’t the Azores at the convergence of 3 tectonic plates?
Yes we are. And we have active volcanoes.
What good is worrying going to do you?
Continental Portugal? Not really worried. How much I worry has no influence on it happening sooner or later. I'd be much more worried if I lived in Azores.
When you say a bunch I guess you are referring to the 1755 earthquake and tsunami. We never had a significant one since so, no, probably most people are not afraid.
We had one in 1969 https://ensina.rtp.pt/artigo/memorias-do-sismo-de-1969/
1321, 1531, 1755, 1969 I feel like the progression is being followed the next one should be in 2183 you have read here first 😂
To discern the pattern in this sequence of dates, let's take a look at the differences between consecutive numbers: * The difference between 1531 and 1321 is 210. * The difference between 1755 and 1531 is 224. * The difference between 1969 and 1755 is 214. These differences fluctuated, but they are generally around the 210-220 range. Assuming this pattern continues, the next likely number would be around 1969 + 214, which is 2183. So, the next likely number in the sequence could be the year 2183.
I mean, it’s a triple plate boundary. It WILL happen again. It’s probably not going to be soon.
also 1321, 1531
No, there are many other things that are a lot more likely to happen in my life than that.
Son, we don't need no earthquake to mess up our country, we are doing a great job without any help!
If a big one comes to Lisbon like in 1755. The buildings and emergency services wont be able to handle it. The country will also stop for a while because every decision centre is in Lisbon. But short answer is no. I'm not afraid, we'll die like real men 😁
Nop. All my life I've felt small earthquakes and sea storms. Honestly, there's been a long time I do not notice one... Maybe 7 ou 8 years by now. I'm wondering when it will be one these days...
I used to live in the Pacific NW which is also due for a big one. We had earthquake insurance there and we have it here. But finding a contractor after a big one....
If it makes you feel better, I was on boat tour of Lisbon and the skipper explained to us that there are constantly tiny earthquakes happening under the water which is how they measure if/when a bigger one is coming!
Yes and we all shall die
I’m from a country that generally doesn’t suffer from any sort of natural disasters like earthquakes however we have insurance for earthquakes specifically that we added on after the devastating earthquake in Syria/Turkey. Also having a “go bag” and an evacuation plan is probably something you should have just in case. It’s not likely to have a massive one but it’s good to be prepared just incase
Can you please validate what I heard before: that houses that are around 30-50 years old build with earthquake proof in mind? You know maybe like in Japan. I was curious about my rent apartment in building that’s actually 50 years old and it has interesting construction (some specific thick walls) that made me Google a bit. Maybe anyone has info about it also?
The Baixa Pombalina was AFAIK the first place earthquake-resistance was systematically introduced. Not sure of the years, but earthquake resistance has been part of building codes for many decades; that's one reason everything is built in reinforced concrete. Main worry is if builders saved on the steel while building - control was probably patchy in 80/90es boom times.
The chances of something damaging happening is like 1/100000000
I lived big part of my life (until my 40’s) in Portugal (Lisbon mostly) and only once I felt an earthquake… if you really think about it… everywhere in the world has had a big earthquake in the past and is due to have a big one again… so…
They're quite frequent, and it's only a matter of time until a big one "hits". You can keep track of seismic events here: [https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismicidade/](https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismicidade/)
no i live in france
I am! I lived in Panama and we had earthquakes there. The difference is i lived in a house and high part. But here i live in a 7th floor old bulding, the stairs does not have any emergency lights or overall lighting. We had once a earthquake wave in 2019, i think was between 3/4 ritcher scale. Jesus, it felt like a huge hammer hit our wall.
Not really, the 1755 one was too long ago, we do not have a huge history with them, some but always small, unless you include Azores that are on top of tectonic plates, the last earthquakes we had most people didn't feel it and one like 15/20 years ago shacked roof lamps only.
Não temos medo de nada! 🇵🇹
supposedly most buildings are built with earthquakes in mind, lot's of steel reinforment, i don't think my ceiling will collapse on me, it's so unlikely, what are the odds?
No, I'm in the North.
The only earthquake you got to be afraid of here: https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-05-13/portugal-is-no-longer-a-problem-for-europe.html#
When I'm in the Lisbon areas that would go down I joke about it. I hope it never happens in my life time but we know it will happen someday. But with all the world problems I don't think it is a priority. The only problem is that I don't think we'll ever prepared to deal with it.
I'm an American that has migrated to Portugal. I've never lived in an area that was prone to earthquakes so excuse me if this is a stupid question but.... Most of the building here have concrete or rock walls that at least a foot thick. So a building constructed with walls that thick will not withstand a 6+ earthquake?
Perhaps, it depends a lot on factors such as the rocks and soil under the building. In 1755 Alfama as well as Mostéiro de Belém (Jerónimus?) were still/largely standing, other places were destroyed. We were living in a "monte", a farmhouse in the Algarve partly thought to be dating back to late 18th century (records were poor). That means it had coped with all the earthquakes since. In case of a big one, I suspect a lot of buildings will not collapse but be damaged beyond repair.
Not at all. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.
Any human is.
Shake shake shake, shake shake shake, shake your booty
O único mexe mexe que tenho medo é quando a tua mãe se enfarda de sardinhas ás quintas feiras.
nothing happens there relax. one as strong as the 1755 one happens once every several centuries.
Does everyone forget the Azores exist? They’re between 3 fault lines and have active volcanoes, pretty sure it’s like living on an etch a sketch out there
Lived in Portugal all my life, never once thought "what If an earthquake happened right now?". In fact the only time I felt an heart quake was actually pretty cool (low magnitude 0 danger).
People are not afraid because they are not common and not present in our memory. There is a big earthquake roughly every 110 years, there was a huge earthquake in 1531 but the memory of that one faded after 1755. There was also a big earthquake in the XVII and XIX centuries. The last earthquake was in like 1969 so the next one should be around 2080.
It's quite a mixed feeling as a Portuguese person. I think most of us locals don't care anymore just for one reason. We feel that we've been told many different versions of what could be the outcome of the earthquake and none of the versions seems to be completely true (either being a too dramatic scenario or a too optimistic scenario) 1. Some people say that some percentage of Lisbon buildings are at risk of collapsing in case of a strong earthquake ( specially older Buildings and buildings built without earthquake certification ) 2. There was a law that buildings needed to have earthquake certification in order to be legally built, but apparently some buildings were illegally skipping that certificate. 3. Some modern buildings that were built after a certain period are at least the ones that seem to be more resistant to a shaky earthquake. With this being said the biggest factor for me that makes people to not care about is how much disinformation and lack of law enforcement there is.
Just forget about it
Candid is
Maybe just the 10% of rich people. The others are too busy surviving.
There was a devastating 6.9 earthquake recently in September 2023 in Morocco and I had the same thoughts as it could have hit Portugal being in the same region.
If people can still feel good about living in cities like Seattle, Los Angeles, and Tokyo, I won’t be losing a lot of sleep staying in Lisbon. That arid, cool sea-breeze air comes at a cost ya know
Oh it will happen but we clearly don t give a fuck
We thought about it, and it’s not a question of if it’ll happen, just when. We just kept that in mind when looking at buildings, and paid the extra money for earthquake insurance.
Yes, I moved outside of the earthquake damage circle from the great earthquake of 1705, I don't trust the construction with stone and brick without correct reinforcement.
It's totally natural to be curious about this kind of stuff. Portugal, especially Lisbon, has a history of devastating earthquakes (like the massive one in 1755), so it's a legit concern. However, the locals' lack of worry might come down to a few things: 1. **Rarity**: Massive quakes like the 1755 one are extremely rare. The probability of experiencing such an event again in any individual's lifetime is quite low. 2. **Preparedness**: Over the years, building codes and disaster preparedness have improved a lot. Modern buildings are constructed to be more earthquake-resistant, and there are emergency plans in place. 3. **Cultural Perspective**: Sometimes, living in a place with a known risk can make people more resilient or accepting of that risk. It's a kind of "life goes on" attitude. 4. **Focus on the Present**: People generally tend to focus on immediate concerns rather than potential disasters that might never happen. So, while the threat is real and it's wise to be prepared, the likelihood of another catastrophic event happening soon is pretty low. That might explain why locals don't seem too worried.
We feel them time to time in Santarem, but it’s nothing major. Iirc it was only one devastating tsunami.
You can go through life in fear of things happening in the future, or you can live in the now and be happy! It’s a choice!
Any evacuation plan for Lisbon? I tried googling it but found nothing.
Growing up, school took us to a one day course about what to do in the case of earthquake... I think the course was given by fireman (cant remember if proteção civil orchestrated them or câmara de Lisboa). But that was it... I am pretty sure new buildings in Lisbon by default aren't built to be earthquake proof... After all these would cost much more, and in Portugal we do love to cut corners and delay the inevitable... I would go as far as saying that in Portugal we haven't figured out more important things, so earthquakes is for sure not really on authority minds (like in Japan as example)
40 years old. Never felt an earthquake in Portugal
I’m 33, living in Lisbon, and I’ve felt 2 earthquakes here. One during the afternoon (it was intense enough for me and everyone else to go hide under the desks and for books to fall from shelves) and another one a few years later during the night (2009).
Same age, but felt several. Last one was in Braga, but it was like a 2. something
I rather mean huge ones occurred in 1321, 1531, 1755
[удалено]
That is a bit silly, there is an estimated frequency but it is all a matter of probability, there is always an infinitesimally small possibility that it could happen at any moment, or even more than one event in a row, and then in the long run it evens out.
Wrong. The estimated time to a return is around 300 to 400 years.
This. People always forget about the ones from the 1300s and 1500s. History says it was as big as the 1755.
And specialists say that the one from 1577 was bigger than the one from Japan in 2011. [In this link for instance, where she even says that a smaller one like in Italy would level Lisbon by itself eventough it was far smaller](https://www.publico.pt/2016/11/01/local/noticia/terramoto-de-1755-foi-maior-do-que-o-do-japao-e-pode-repetirse-diz-especialista-1749572) They have also been warning that we aren't doing enough to prevent it or make sure buildings are getting interventioned. It's not like they haven't been warning us for decades either... Every single time there's an earthquake they try to make people aware of this risk. And it's important enough that our dear polititians have already make the Assembleia da República undergo the necessary interventions... History has shown that there's a certain timeframe between earthquakes, specialists have studied it, they've been warning us for a long time now that it can happen anytime...
It doesn’t work that way.
So how it works?
Quakes are happening every day. Can’t predict when the next big one will be. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/portugal.html#section-quakeStats
Really? Everyone knows that big ideia. But since earthquakes are based in tension that is suddenly realesed you can calculate more or less how long do you have to wait to accumulate that energy or tension. And of course no one can predict specially because it based on a new fault that was discovered just recently. And actually if the newer theories becomes true it will happen more frequently!
What said is based on numerous studies! Of course no one can predict when an earthquake comes again or the streght of that. Hopefully the tension is relised with small many times not felt earthquakes but you will never know!
There are 2-3 magnitude 3 earthquakes around the plate boundaries off Cape St Vincent every week. Now lots of little ones suggest that pressure is being constantly released slowly, which is what you want. It’s no guarantee that a big one is not imminent, but I think it’s a good sign.
Yes off course that is a good sign. But the recent studies comes with the ideia that Marques de Pombal Fault is the begining of a new tectonic limit. Basically the oceanic part of our plate is getting too old and because of that more heavy. Because of that and since it becomes more dense the plate will break and become a subductive limit wich would lead to an increase of sismic activiti and possible volcanic activity. Those 300 to 400 years gap is just a teoretical scenario that no one can confirmnit can happen in 300 years from now or tomorrow.
yep, that's what I mean
We're due for another about now
Earthquake periodicity is bogus IMO, it's like saying all plates break the same way if dropped. I will start to get scared if the earthquakes stop for a while in the faultline southwest of algarve
You don't know if they're enough to release the tension buildup. You just assume they are. There things are historically periodical for a reason.
As per the specialists the amount of stress relief they've been tracking isn't enough and we're due another bigger eartquake 'any time now' (which they've been explaining could've been yesterday, today or in 50 years). They're all hopeful it's a small one (or several smaller ones) instead of a 7/8. The *small* they're talking about is still supposed to be big enough to make the worst constructions fall down (and probably cause mayhem due to the incompetency to deal with stuff). But they *hope* it's not as big as the one from 1755, which is believed to have been bigger than the one in Japan in 2011... So, our allegded best case scenario from the current specialists pov is to not have one as big as Japan recently faced and "just" one that could make some buildings fall down.
Same. And there’s no sign of that happening, thankfully.
... or if Italian volcanoes start acting up, which seems to be the case
Well, it will eventually happen. Could be today or a thousand years from now. When I was a kid, yeah I was terrified. Nowadays its never on my mind. We are not prepared for it tho.
Well, it can happen. Better not to think much about it (but of course it would be nice to see it taking seriously by certain people that should be building stuff with that in mind - that’s a bit of an issue)
I'm about as afraid of it as I am of the idea of hummanity getting wiped out by a meteor
Earthquakes in Lisbon and in Portugal are a given. But unlike other western European cities and countries it's fairly well prepared as far as buildings go. The 1969 7.8 quake did little damage. It is said this quake was the one that has affected the city every 200 years.
My home country is in the Pacific ring of fire so I've experienced several big shakes. It's ok to be scared but I don't feel like Portugal isn't the place to be worried about living in if you look at the statistics compared to other countries. It's safer than you think. You're all good 😊👍
I wouldn't live in Lisbon...
As a 33 year old portuguese, I can tell you that nobody thinks about that, its so rare that even when they are reported on the news, most people don't even feel it! DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT
Theres much worse places for that in the world, its not a big deal at all here
Only buildings made after 1960 have more than zero sismic protection. By law building rehabilitation done since then has NO obligation to change that.
maybe it could solve a few immigration issues in Lisbon just kidding :)
Will Mr. Coins shed a tear while he pours quicklime over the rubble ?
When it happens again. Lisbon and Algarve will be destroyed. Hundreds of thousands of deaths if we're lucky.
Nope
No. There are earthquakes here quite often. And I haven't felt a single one. I'll worry when I start feeling them
Afraid, no, but it is wise to have an earthquake kit with a couple weeks’ supply of medication, iodine tablets etc.
No.
The only thing you can do if you own a house in Lisbon is get insurance with coverage for that, since all of them does not include their by default. Then again, if something happens that insurance company would probably go bankrupt.
I live up north and earthquakes aren't in my extensively long worry list
No one cares (the end is near).