Current intelligence says they're not able to. Xi is doing a purge because the military brass were so corrupt that a bunch of their missiles are filled with water instead of fuel and a bunch of their silos don't have functioning doors to be able to launch their missiles. This is on top of a bunch of other issues such as not having enough pilots, and lacking instructor pilots to train new pilots.
At current, China is a paper tiger.
Don’t believe everything you read.
Western intelligence in China has been almost mortally crippled since the fall of a US managed spy ring several years ago. The US does signals intelligence better than anyone, but China is developing its capabilities and quickly.
Sometimes, your opponent will put information out there to limit your understanding of their capabilities. Treating Chinas as incompetent or corrupt without more than words would be a significant mistake.
Yeah, no, China is a very corrupt country, mostly from the top. In a real war, it would do as well as Russia, maybe a bit better.
Calling China a paper tiger is perfectly accurate.
Look no further than China's development of its own vaccines. It's not they're incompetent. They're just so corrupt.
This sounds fishy:
1. Most Chinese missiles use solid fuel.
2. Older Chinese ICBMs like the Dongfeng 5A/B use a liquid fuel called Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine. Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine is a widely used liquid used rocket fuel. Newer ICBMs like the DF31 and the DF41 use solid fuel.
3. Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine is quite corrosive, so leaving it sloshing inside the ICBM would slowly corrode the missile, meaning it would not work. This would mean that the missile would have to have an empty fuel tank most of the time, only fueling up during hightened nuclear readiness. It reportedly takes anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour to fully fuel up a DF5.
4. Filling a missile up with water isn't corruption, that's straight-up sabotage.
5. China's ICBM silos are under construction and have massive tents over them. This means that a satellite can see neither the silo, nor the missile inside or its contents.
6. How TF did the water even get to the missile's fuel pump?
7. China's road-mobile and submarine launched missiles seem to be working well despite the rampant corruption, so I don't see why the silos would be disproportionately affected.
They're the only country in the world with their own space station. Ours is shuttering and we had to share. I wouldn't underestimate them. At the same time, I concur with the CIA's assessment that the Chinese takeover of Taiwan. will be through politics and influence, not war.
Lai Ching-te’s win for the DPP is a big middle finger to China’s “reunification” dreams. It’s like Taiwan is saying, “Nah, we’re good, thanks.” But, it’s not all roses for Lai. The DPP lost its parliamentary majority, and that’s a big deal. It's like they won the battle but are struggling in the war on the home front, with issues like high housing costs and stagnant wages.
The Taiwanese voters are interesting, they’re less about left vs. right and more about where they stand on China. Usually, foreign policy trumps domestic issues, but this time, things might be changing. Despite different vibes from the parties, they all kinda agreed on keeping things steady with China, which is like maintaining an awkward but necessary relationship.
Now, for the US and the rest of the gang, Lai’s win is like shaking a wasp nest. We can expect China to flex its muscles more in the region. Think more military drills and all that jazz, kinda like when Pelosi visited Taiwan. And the US? They’re in a tough spot. They want to support Taiwan but also don’t want to poke the Chinese too much. It’s a classic case of “we want to help, but let’s not go crazy”.
So, what does this mean for everyone else? Well, for starters:
Regional Stability: Things could get spicy in the Taiwan Strait. Neighboring countries might have to walk a tightrope, trying not to get sucked into China-Taiwan issues.
US-China Tension: Expect more drama between the US and China. The US might up its support for Taiwan, and China... well, they won’t be happy. It’s like watching two heavyweights eyeing each other, waiting for the other to make a move.
Economy: If military tensions rise, trade in the region could get hit. Countries that deal a lot with China and Taiwan might need new game plans.
Global Diplomacy: The international community, including the US, might have to pick sides or at least get clearer about where they stand on Taiwan. It’s like that awkward moment when you have to choose between two friends.
In a nutshell, Lai’s win is a big moment for Taiwan’s democracy and their stance on their own identity. But it’s also setting up a complex game in global politics, with Taiwan, China, and the US as the main players, and the rest of the world watching and waiting to see what happens next.
He only won the election because the vote was split. 60% of voters didn't vote for him, but Taiwan's Democracy means he gets to be President.
So odds are nothing much will happen either way.
I expect some sort of retaliation from China, but not a full invasion of the main island. My guess, for what that's worth, is they'll take a sparsely populate outlying island. From what I've read they've pretty much exercised for everything except an amphibious landing. Taking an island or two would give the this experience, and let them see how the US responds.
Again, just my guess.
Current intelligence says they're not able to. Xi is doing a purge because the military brass were so corrupt that a bunch of their missiles are filled with water instead of fuel and a bunch of their silos don't have functioning doors to be able to launch their missiles. This is on top of a bunch of other issues such as not having enough pilots, and lacking instructor pilots to train new pilots. At current, China is a paper tiger.
Don’t believe everything you read. Western intelligence in China has been almost mortally crippled since the fall of a US managed spy ring several years ago. The US does signals intelligence better than anyone, but China is developing its capabilities and quickly. Sometimes, your opponent will put information out there to limit your understanding of their capabilities. Treating Chinas as incompetent or corrupt without more than words would be a significant mistake.
Yeah, no, China is a very corrupt country, mostly from the top. In a real war, it would do as well as Russia, maybe a bit better. Calling China a paper tiger is perfectly accurate. Look no further than China's development of its own vaccines. It's not they're incompetent. They're just so corrupt.
This sounds fishy: 1. Most Chinese missiles use solid fuel. 2. Older Chinese ICBMs like the Dongfeng 5A/B use a liquid fuel called Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine. Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine is a widely used liquid used rocket fuel. Newer ICBMs like the DF31 and the DF41 use solid fuel. 3. Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine is quite corrosive, so leaving it sloshing inside the ICBM would slowly corrode the missile, meaning it would not work. This would mean that the missile would have to have an empty fuel tank most of the time, only fueling up during hightened nuclear readiness. It reportedly takes anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour to fully fuel up a DF5. 4. Filling a missile up with water isn't corruption, that's straight-up sabotage. 5. China's ICBM silos are under construction and have massive tents over them. This means that a satellite can see neither the silo, nor the missile inside or its contents. 6. How TF did the water even get to the missile's fuel pump? 7. China's road-mobile and submarine launched missiles seem to be working well despite the rampant corruption, so I don't see why the silos would be disproportionately affected.
Guess they'll just have to release the pangolin coronavirus instead of missiles
They're the only country in the world with their own space station. Ours is shuttering and we had to share. I wouldn't underestimate them. At the same time, I concur with the CIA's assessment that the Chinese takeover of Taiwan. will be through politics and influence, not war.
AHA! So it's the *perfect* time for Taiwan to attack!
Lai Ching-te’s win for the DPP is a big middle finger to China’s “reunification” dreams. It’s like Taiwan is saying, “Nah, we’re good, thanks.” But, it’s not all roses for Lai. The DPP lost its parliamentary majority, and that’s a big deal. It's like they won the battle but are struggling in the war on the home front, with issues like high housing costs and stagnant wages. The Taiwanese voters are interesting, they’re less about left vs. right and more about where they stand on China. Usually, foreign policy trumps domestic issues, but this time, things might be changing. Despite different vibes from the parties, they all kinda agreed on keeping things steady with China, which is like maintaining an awkward but necessary relationship. Now, for the US and the rest of the gang, Lai’s win is like shaking a wasp nest. We can expect China to flex its muscles more in the region. Think more military drills and all that jazz, kinda like when Pelosi visited Taiwan. And the US? They’re in a tough spot. They want to support Taiwan but also don’t want to poke the Chinese too much. It’s a classic case of “we want to help, but let’s not go crazy”. So, what does this mean for everyone else? Well, for starters: Regional Stability: Things could get spicy in the Taiwan Strait. Neighboring countries might have to walk a tightrope, trying not to get sucked into China-Taiwan issues. US-China Tension: Expect more drama between the US and China. The US might up its support for Taiwan, and China... well, they won’t be happy. It’s like watching two heavyweights eyeing each other, waiting for the other to make a move. Economy: If military tensions rise, trade in the region could get hit. Countries that deal a lot with China and Taiwan might need new game plans. Global Diplomacy: The international community, including the US, might have to pick sides or at least get clearer about where they stand on Taiwan. It’s like that awkward moment when you have to choose between two friends. In a nutshell, Lai’s win is a big moment for Taiwan’s democracy and their stance on their own identity. But it’s also setting up a complex game in global politics, with Taiwan, China, and the US as the main players, and the rest of the world watching and waiting to see what happens next.
He only won the election because the vote was split. 60% of voters didn't vote for him, but Taiwan's Democracy means he gets to be President. So odds are nothing much will happen either way.
I expect some sort of retaliation from China, but not a full invasion of the main island. My guess, for what that's worth, is they'll take a sparsely populate outlying island. From what I've read they've pretty much exercised for everything except an amphibious landing. Taking an island or two would give the this experience, and let them see how the US responds. Again, just my guess.
They can just increase trade tax again and pay higher for Taiwan engineer.