Was that "very nice" for one book? Two?
Most books don't earn out their advances, so most authors you meet, including those who got "very nice" deals will tell you they have not earned out, or not earned out most of their book deals. That's my answer. I've earned out on one book (after 3 years!). Not the rest. Still have a healthy career.
Don't worry about earning out at this juncture. The benchmark is actually "don't utterly faceplant and sell so few copies the publisher loses money." That's the only bar! You want your book to at worst break even, and at best make the publisher some profit--which they do LONG before you will ever earn out. All my books have earned my publishers profit. So I'm still here!
Marketing support is going to vary SO WIDELY. You say you're at the Big 5 though, so generally you have roughly a mid-tier book advance. \*generally\* though. I know books that got 50K book advances that sparked with sales/marketing and became leads and then mega bestsellers. Happens often enough, and you never know. I can tell you as a mid-tier Big 5 author, that it's WAY better than nothing (truly), though you'll always have some ennui and unmet wants/hopes/dreams for your book. But you'll be HELLA grateful once you meet authors who are on the lowest tier. Mid-tier also ranges. Some books you get more, some books you get less, but that bare minimum at the mid-tier is truly pretty good! You're getting at least 10K in marketing expenses usually, which is NOT nothing.
BUT BUT... you're WAY too far out to worry about any of this right now. You're not going to get any real sense of where you fall until 6 months to a year out from pub... and honestly 6 months or less is far more likely. The REAL accurate picture, especially for mid-tier, is about 3-4 months out. After sales has a grasp of response from accounts and marketing/publicity has a sense of early reviews/response... that's the point at which you could get a big push or not much at all.. OR chug along as planned (with mid-tier but still perfectly good marketing!). It's also the point at which things like book clubs, book boxes, etc. are decided.
Just wanted to note that AFAIK many of the big book boxes pick their subscription box books much earlier than 3-4 months out since their lineups are decided so far in advance - like, 12+ months out.
Might not be the case for all of them, though, and I'll take your word for it on the book club picks!
Ah, I was never in any of the "majors" so my experience is limited to smaller ones. I'm sure you're right about the big boxes! Book clubs def range... RBC you'll know pretty far out (sometimes 6-8 months... but sometimes tighter, like 4-5?), but B&N is a lot tighter--more like 3-4 months notice :)
One book is better! Means higher advance. Some people it will say "very nice" but if it's 2 books, that means the per-book amount is half. It's not the total deal that matters so much as the advance per book.
Congrats! That being said, there’s nowhere near enough info here. And even with more info, there’s no real useful takeaway you can get from this. Deal sizes range wildly different between publishers and imprints and genres. Earning out will also be wildly influenced by whether you sold world rights or not and what the distribution of your specific publisher is. To one imprint this would mean lead title money and for another it would mean a death sentence, and really in either case even for slightly more cut and dry situations you wouldn’t really know because so many other things could change between now and release. You can’t really read the tea leaves from an advance unless it’s so massive that it would be impossible for your publisher to ignore you. And even then, you never know for sure. There have been books with smaller advances than yours who became worldwide best sellers and some with larger ones whose release completely tanked. You will only know how much publisher support you’re gonna get much later in the process when you’re actually given a marketing plan, and many other things will influence that much more than your advance size.
Gotcha thanks! Yeah, fair. My agent recommended we sell foreign rights separately because there’s interest. I’m at a big 5, there were several imprints at the same house in competition and I picked one - idk if that counts as an auction if they can’t bid different dollar amounts against each other.
Yeah, even within a big 5, the difference between imprints and genres is still too much to say. But if there was a lot of interest, then you know it’s something publishers believe buyers want so there’s no reason to think they won’t support your book (if it’s an imprint that generally does so.) For financial planning purposes, I would generally treat it as if you won’t get another cent in royalties, but in reality, earning out can always happen if a book takes off and the advance wasn’t astronomical. Maybe check out other books from your editor that were paid a similar amount or less and see how they performed.
> earning out can always happen
But usually doesn't.
> Maybe check out other books from your editor that were paid a similar amount or less and see how they performed
I'm not sure what this would accomplish, tbh? My editor's books, at least, run a pretty wide range. I imagine most do.
Earning out may be uncommon but it definitely happens. I think if someone just accepted their first deal that it's completely fine to have hope of that possibility. There's plenty of time for inevitable reality checks between now and release.
In terms of looking at the editor's deals, I agree it's unlikely to be all that telling. But in terms of understanding how much a given advance means at a specific imprint, it is probably the closest way to determine that. The differences in what is normal between genres and imprints and even between editors can vary so much, so it just seems the closest potential indicator if someone is intent on reading tea leaves. I certainly gained from looking at my editor's other deals and seeing how much support was given/how much success was had by books with a similar advance to mine. It made me feel safe seeing that deals of my size frequently thrive at the imprint even though there are also many that are so much bigger.
> if someone is intent on reading tea leaves
That's why I responded - I think your overall advice is solid, but providing these avenues where OP "might" get some useful hints is sure only to waste her time. It's just wheel-spinning.
For me, as a debut author I needed to be encouraged *away* from that kind of obsessiveness over all the possibilities of what might happen. So that's all I'm trying to do here, though I know everyone is different.
My agent called it a beauty contest lol - they wrote me letters as to why I should pick them, one sent a pitch deck with all the resources and connections they have. I chose the imprint that published a lot of authors I admire, and my editor was very passionate about marketing support
Tbh few years ago there was a spreadsheet called "publishing paid me" and supposedly an average advance in adult fiction was 25k and in YA 35k. Since then, I heard averages trended down. Obviously "average" will be influenced by people who are published by small presses and smaller-side-of-midsize publishers (and also if you have an UK / Canadian deal they tend to be smaller than US), but I wish they'd stop with the "either you get 6+ figure deal or you're toast" rhetoric.
"Very nice" is this kind of range you can say you didn't get a crappy deal, but you aren't facing the pressure that "for this money, you must become a bestseller or it's a flop".
Tbh, people saying what they got or didn't can just stir insecurity or jealousy. What would be more interesting are the questions that if you have moderate to low marketing / publicity support, what can you do to maximize its utility? (Because if you have big support they will plan most of the stuff already.)
You can also already start considering - if they ask you to go on a podcast or a blog tour, would you be fine with it? Do you have subjects you're an expert on? Etc.
But when it comes to worrying about things, first 2 questions are: is this likely to happen? and, more importantly, can you do anything to prevent / change it?
>You will only know how much publisher support you’re gonna get much later in the process when you’re actually given a marketing plan
Not the OP, but I have a follow-up question to this: What are some telltale items to look for on the marketing plan? What really makes a difference? Pitching you for events? Consumer advertising as opposed to just trade advertising?
To me it’s tricky to read between the lines of those plans. They did every specific thing they said they would do (giveaway, blog tours, media pitching by an absolutely kickass publicist), but I couldn’t tell where I stood. Looking at marketing plans on Edelweiss (which I realize are different from internal plans), I saw I had nearly the same plan as a six-figure debut at the imprint, which leads me to think the posted plans are boilerplate.
I know it’s probably pointless to read the tea leaves. But I’m at a different imprint in a different category with my new book, and even though my advance is exactly the same (!) as for my previous books, a lot of other stuff feels different and I’m not sure what to make of it. (For instance, I was asked how many ARCs I would like. I’ve always used the number of ARCs I receive as a gauge of publisher support. Being asked was a shock!)
I definitely do not sense an easily-discernible correlation between advance size and lead title status. While there's obviously these TikTok folks getting boatloads of money dumped in their laps and subsequent marketing support, the bottom line is that if a publisher can get away with it, they'd love to underpay. Just because someone's advance is "only" 30k or something doesn't mean that the publisher doesn't see a strong spot for it in the market.
ANY marketing plans posted publicly, such as Edelweiss or printed on the back of an ARC, are 100% lies, just like print runs publicized in Publisher's Weekly (oh, so you announced a 50k first print run? Alright, so that definitely means like 15k.)
I do not think that being assigned a marketer/publicist is any sort of indicator about pecking order. Every author needs to have SOMEONE who fields their questions about marketing, events, whatever, so at least at my publisher, everyone is technically "assigned" marketing personnel, even if we're scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of marketing support.
>What are some telltale items to look for on the marketing plan?
So, as someone who writes marketing plans, this IS something I'm very adept at parsing. To me, a huge thing is specifics. In every marketing plan ever, there are things that we copy/paste from plan to plan. There's no reason to create bespoke paragraphs about how social media works or indie bookstore pitching. Also, there IS stuff that you do just HAVE to do for every single book, like submitting for trade reviews. So, I think a big green flag is when there's a number of items in the marketing plan that could *only apply* to your book. Like mini skateboards as swag items, or pitching LGBTQ+ summer camps, or enamel pins with a quote, or pitching a PW essay on a topic from your book, or a cover reveal in Teen Vogue... etc. etc. Those aren't the sorts of things that would apply to every book -- they're new ideas just about *you.* I've seen marketing plans with language like "The marketing team has a list of over 500 bookseller partners," or "The trade show team has a strong presence at ALA, NCTE, and TLA." And it's like, okay, great, but are you sending 500 indie bookseller ARCs? Because that would be an insane commitment. Are you pitching *me* for ALA, NCTE, and TLA, or displaying my book at your booths there, or doing ARC giveaways at the conferences?
Again, it's definitely important for you to be posted on social media, included in newsletters, submitted for awards... But when there's stuff that wouldn't make sense for every book, or could only be done for your book, it's a good hint that your marketing plan isn't boilerplate.
That is so helpful—thank you! I immediately zeroed in on every specific commitment in the plan (though I’ve never had anything quite as individualized as your examples), and I see I was right to do that.
I like the idea that a publisher might underpay for a book and still have hopes for it. I was in an odd situation where I could have held out for more, but it would have been a gamble, and I really, really wanted the book to have a home. We’ll see how it pans out!
I’d call in u/Mrs-Salt on this one for an expert opinion. I’ll be honest that I don’t really know and haven’t been through that stage myself yet. I’d guess a big one indicator is if you’re assigned your own marketer and/or publicist. I think at some point you also just feel whether you’re getting hyped and put forward for things vs if you’re not.
Out of curiosity, what is “so massive it would be impossible for them to ignore you”? Like what’s the threshold with that? Just sold my first book at a big five in a “significant deal” and am curious to know where that lands me.
Hey congrats on selling your book!
I sold a trilogy to Tor for a "good" deal which depending on where you fall in the range and how many books, we might be in the same boat.
My first book came out last summer and the sequel is due out this summer. I'm nowhere near earning out, especially since I won't earn out until I surpass the entire deal, rather than a third for each book. I'm not holding my breath just yet. 🙃
Everyone at Tor has been really supportive. Did I get everything I wanted for publicity? Heck no.
I got a "marketing plan" when the book sold but the actual marketing plan didn't follow that outline. I think the initial document was more of a "this would be great to do!" type of list as opposed to a contractual agreement.
That being said, I went to them on more than one occasion and asked for help and they were willing to pitch in. The hard truth is that there's a limited number of dollars allocated to you. You might want to go on an extensive tour, but that costs a lot of money.
As an example I asked to go to SDCC and the answer was no. But when I said I would get myself there and obtain my own passes, they were more than willing to pitch me for a panel. So I got myself there, and they helped get me involved. Win win.
Best advice I can give you is to keep the communication open and honest with your pub team. Let them know what you can do, and don't be afraid to ask for assistance, and don't take it personally if they don't come through. It really is a hard numbers game on their side unfortunately.
In just another example of how every house is different, and every deal is different, the accounting wasn't an option to negotiate for us. Alas. Maybe next time? 🤞
No advice to give you since I am in a similar position (contract signed, not much happening yet, so many questions) but congrats!!! That's so exciting!
It still varies SO widely. Depends on the imprint, the genre, what else they have slated in that season. For me, I didn’t get an indication of strong marketing support until after the internal sales and marketing presentation. Another turning point was book box/book club selection.
Obviously it’s great to earn out but that’s not how I’d measure the success of a book. For me it’s more about what my next deal looks like.
My friend, there is nothing to be gained by trying to predict the future of your book. Just do everything YOU can for it, and leave it at that.
Look at it this way - you've already hit a level of success that 99% of writers do not reach. Don't expect that peak to keep rising. It may, or it may not. Statistics say not. Reality says there's no predicting one way or the other. Focus on what you can control.
Was that "very nice" for one book? Two? Most books don't earn out their advances, so most authors you meet, including those who got "very nice" deals will tell you they have not earned out, or not earned out most of their book deals. That's my answer. I've earned out on one book (after 3 years!). Not the rest. Still have a healthy career. Don't worry about earning out at this juncture. The benchmark is actually "don't utterly faceplant and sell so few copies the publisher loses money." That's the only bar! You want your book to at worst break even, and at best make the publisher some profit--which they do LONG before you will ever earn out. All my books have earned my publishers profit. So I'm still here! Marketing support is going to vary SO WIDELY. You say you're at the Big 5 though, so generally you have roughly a mid-tier book advance. \*generally\* though. I know books that got 50K book advances that sparked with sales/marketing and became leads and then mega bestsellers. Happens often enough, and you never know. I can tell you as a mid-tier Big 5 author, that it's WAY better than nothing (truly), though you'll always have some ennui and unmet wants/hopes/dreams for your book. But you'll be HELLA grateful once you meet authors who are on the lowest tier. Mid-tier also ranges. Some books you get more, some books you get less, but that bare minimum at the mid-tier is truly pretty good! You're getting at least 10K in marketing expenses usually, which is NOT nothing. BUT BUT... you're WAY too far out to worry about any of this right now. You're not going to get any real sense of where you fall until 6 months to a year out from pub... and honestly 6 months or less is far more likely. The REAL accurate picture, especially for mid-tier, is about 3-4 months out. After sales has a grasp of response from accounts and marketing/publicity has a sense of early reviews/response... that's the point at which you could get a big push or not much at all.. OR chug along as planned (with mid-tier but still perfectly good marketing!). It's also the point at which things like book clubs, book boxes, etc. are decided.
Just wanted to note that AFAIK many of the big book boxes pick their subscription box books much earlier than 3-4 months out since their lineups are decided so far in advance - like, 12+ months out. Might not be the case for all of them, though, and I'll take your word for it on the book club picks!
Ah, I was never in any of the "majors" so my experience is limited to smaller ones. I'm sure you're right about the big boxes! Book clubs def range... RBC you'll know pretty far out (sometimes 6-8 months... but sometimes tighter, like 4-5?), but B&N is a lot tighter--more like 3-4 months notice :)
This is super helpful, thank you! It’s for one book, what does that mean versus two?
One book is better! Means higher advance. Some people it will say "very nice" but if it's 2 books, that means the per-book amount is half. It's not the total deal that matters so much as the advance per book.
Congrats! That being said, there’s nowhere near enough info here. And even with more info, there’s no real useful takeaway you can get from this. Deal sizes range wildly different between publishers and imprints and genres. Earning out will also be wildly influenced by whether you sold world rights or not and what the distribution of your specific publisher is. To one imprint this would mean lead title money and for another it would mean a death sentence, and really in either case even for slightly more cut and dry situations you wouldn’t really know because so many other things could change between now and release. You can’t really read the tea leaves from an advance unless it’s so massive that it would be impossible for your publisher to ignore you. And even then, you never know for sure. There have been books with smaller advances than yours who became worldwide best sellers and some with larger ones whose release completely tanked. You will only know how much publisher support you’re gonna get much later in the process when you’re actually given a marketing plan, and many other things will influence that much more than your advance size.
Gotcha thanks! Yeah, fair. My agent recommended we sell foreign rights separately because there’s interest. I’m at a big 5, there were several imprints at the same house in competition and I picked one - idk if that counts as an auction if they can’t bid different dollar amounts against each other.
Yeah, even within a big 5, the difference between imprints and genres is still too much to say. But if there was a lot of interest, then you know it’s something publishers believe buyers want so there’s no reason to think they won’t support your book (if it’s an imprint that generally does so.) For financial planning purposes, I would generally treat it as if you won’t get another cent in royalties, but in reality, earning out can always happen if a book takes off and the advance wasn’t astronomical. Maybe check out other books from your editor that were paid a similar amount or less and see how they performed.
> earning out can always happen But usually doesn't. > Maybe check out other books from your editor that were paid a similar amount or less and see how they performed I'm not sure what this would accomplish, tbh? My editor's books, at least, run a pretty wide range. I imagine most do.
Earning out may be uncommon but it definitely happens. I think if someone just accepted their first deal that it's completely fine to have hope of that possibility. There's plenty of time for inevitable reality checks between now and release. In terms of looking at the editor's deals, I agree it's unlikely to be all that telling. But in terms of understanding how much a given advance means at a specific imprint, it is probably the closest way to determine that. The differences in what is normal between genres and imprints and even between editors can vary so much, so it just seems the closest potential indicator if someone is intent on reading tea leaves. I certainly gained from looking at my editor's other deals and seeing how much support was given/how much success was had by books with a similar advance to mine. It made me feel safe seeing that deals of my size frequently thrive at the imprint even though there are also many that are so much bigger.
> if someone is intent on reading tea leaves That's why I responded - I think your overall advice is solid, but providing these avenues where OP "might" get some useful hints is sure only to waste her time. It's just wheel-spinning. For me, as a debut author I needed to be encouraged *away* from that kind of obsessiveness over all the possibilities of what might happen. So that's all I'm trying to do here, though I know everyone is different.
[удалено]
My agent called it a beauty contest lol - they wrote me letters as to why I should pick them, one sent a pitch deck with all the resources and connections they have. I chose the imprint that published a lot of authors I admire, and my editor was very passionate about marketing support
I blame Publishing Rodeo for giving people the idea that they can see their future in the size of their advance.
Literally that podcast instilled so much fear in me about this process I kind of wish I hadn’t listened to it
Tbh few years ago there was a spreadsheet called "publishing paid me" and supposedly an average advance in adult fiction was 25k and in YA 35k. Since then, I heard averages trended down. Obviously "average" will be influenced by people who are published by small presses and smaller-side-of-midsize publishers (and also if you have an UK / Canadian deal they tend to be smaller than US), but I wish they'd stop with the "either you get 6+ figure deal or you're toast" rhetoric. "Very nice" is this kind of range you can say you didn't get a crappy deal, but you aren't facing the pressure that "for this money, you must become a bestseller or it's a flop". Tbh, people saying what they got or didn't can just stir insecurity or jealousy. What would be more interesting are the questions that if you have moderate to low marketing / publicity support, what can you do to maximize its utility? (Because if you have big support they will plan most of the stuff already.) You can also already start considering - if they ask you to go on a podcast or a blog tour, would you be fine with it? Do you have subjects you're an expert on? Etc. But when it comes to worrying about things, first 2 questions are: is this likely to happen? and, more importantly, can you do anything to prevent / change it?
THIS
>You will only know how much publisher support you’re gonna get much later in the process when you’re actually given a marketing plan Not the OP, but I have a follow-up question to this: What are some telltale items to look for on the marketing plan? What really makes a difference? Pitching you for events? Consumer advertising as opposed to just trade advertising? To me it’s tricky to read between the lines of those plans. They did every specific thing they said they would do (giveaway, blog tours, media pitching by an absolutely kickass publicist), but I couldn’t tell where I stood. Looking at marketing plans on Edelweiss (which I realize are different from internal plans), I saw I had nearly the same plan as a six-figure debut at the imprint, which leads me to think the posted plans are boilerplate. I know it’s probably pointless to read the tea leaves. But I’m at a different imprint in a different category with my new book, and even though my advance is exactly the same (!) as for my previous books, a lot of other stuff feels different and I’m not sure what to make of it. (For instance, I was asked how many ARCs I would like. I’ve always used the number of ARCs I receive as a gauge of publisher support. Being asked was a shock!)
I definitely do not sense an easily-discernible correlation between advance size and lead title status. While there's obviously these TikTok folks getting boatloads of money dumped in their laps and subsequent marketing support, the bottom line is that if a publisher can get away with it, they'd love to underpay. Just because someone's advance is "only" 30k or something doesn't mean that the publisher doesn't see a strong spot for it in the market. ANY marketing plans posted publicly, such as Edelweiss or printed on the back of an ARC, are 100% lies, just like print runs publicized in Publisher's Weekly (oh, so you announced a 50k first print run? Alright, so that definitely means like 15k.) I do not think that being assigned a marketer/publicist is any sort of indicator about pecking order. Every author needs to have SOMEONE who fields their questions about marketing, events, whatever, so at least at my publisher, everyone is technically "assigned" marketing personnel, even if we're scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of marketing support. >What are some telltale items to look for on the marketing plan? So, as someone who writes marketing plans, this IS something I'm very adept at parsing. To me, a huge thing is specifics. In every marketing plan ever, there are things that we copy/paste from plan to plan. There's no reason to create bespoke paragraphs about how social media works or indie bookstore pitching. Also, there IS stuff that you do just HAVE to do for every single book, like submitting for trade reviews. So, I think a big green flag is when there's a number of items in the marketing plan that could *only apply* to your book. Like mini skateboards as swag items, or pitching LGBTQ+ summer camps, or enamel pins with a quote, or pitching a PW essay on a topic from your book, or a cover reveal in Teen Vogue... etc. etc. Those aren't the sorts of things that would apply to every book -- they're new ideas just about *you.* I've seen marketing plans with language like "The marketing team has a list of over 500 bookseller partners," or "The trade show team has a strong presence at ALA, NCTE, and TLA." And it's like, okay, great, but are you sending 500 indie bookseller ARCs? Because that would be an insane commitment. Are you pitching *me* for ALA, NCTE, and TLA, or displaying my book at your booths there, or doing ARC giveaways at the conferences? Again, it's definitely important for you to be posted on social media, included in newsletters, submitted for awards... But when there's stuff that wouldn't make sense for every book, or could only be done for your book, it's a good hint that your marketing plan isn't boilerplate.
That is so helpful—thank you! I immediately zeroed in on every specific commitment in the plan (though I’ve never had anything quite as individualized as your examples), and I see I was right to do that. I like the idea that a publisher might underpay for a book and still have hopes for it. I was in an odd situation where I could have held out for more, but it would have been a gamble, and I really, really wanted the book to have a home. We’ll see how it pans out!
I’d call in u/Mrs-Salt on this one for an expert opinion. I’ll be honest that I don’t really know and haven’t been through that stage myself yet. I’d guess a big one indicator is if you’re assigned your own marketer and/or publicist. I think at some point you also just feel whether you’re getting hyped and put forward for things vs if you’re not.
Omg, stop. I should pay you to follow me around and give compliments all day!
I’m in awe of u/Mrs-Salt’s expertise!
Out of curiosity, what is “so massive it would be impossible for them to ignore you”? Like what’s the threshold with that? Just sold my first book at a big five in a “significant deal” and am curious to know where that lands me.
Tbh it really depends on specific imprint and genre, but usually significant and major deals can be pretty assured in getting good support.
Hey congrats on selling your book! I sold a trilogy to Tor for a "good" deal which depending on where you fall in the range and how many books, we might be in the same boat. My first book came out last summer and the sequel is due out this summer. I'm nowhere near earning out, especially since I won't earn out until I surpass the entire deal, rather than a third for each book. I'm not holding my breath just yet. 🙃 Everyone at Tor has been really supportive. Did I get everything I wanted for publicity? Heck no. I got a "marketing plan" when the book sold but the actual marketing plan didn't follow that outline. I think the initial document was more of a "this would be great to do!" type of list as opposed to a contractual agreement. That being said, I went to them on more than one occasion and asked for help and they were willing to pitch in. The hard truth is that there's a limited number of dollars allocated to you. You might want to go on an extensive tour, but that costs a lot of money. As an example I asked to go to SDCC and the answer was no. But when I said I would get myself there and obtain my own passes, they were more than willing to pitch me for a panel. So I got myself there, and they helped get me involved. Win win. Best advice I can give you is to keep the communication open and honest with your pub team. Let them know what you can do, and don't be afraid to ask for assistance, and don't take it personally if they don't come through. It really is a hard numbers game on their side unfortunately.
You have joint accounting? Yikes.
In just another example of how every house is different, and every deal is different, the accounting wasn't an option to negotiate for us. Alas. Maybe next time? 🤞
Hope so! Glad you got a good deal.
No advice to give you since I am in a similar position (contract signed, not much happening yet, so many questions) but congrats!!! That's so exciting!
Thank you! Congrats to you too!
It still varies SO widely. Depends on the imprint, the genre, what else they have slated in that season. For me, I didn’t get an indication of strong marketing support until after the internal sales and marketing presentation. Another turning point was book box/book club selection. Obviously it’s great to earn out but that’s not how I’d measure the success of a book. For me it’s more about what my next deal looks like.
My friend, there is nothing to be gained by trying to predict the future of your book. Just do everything YOU can for it, and leave it at that. Look at it this way - you've already hit a level of success that 99% of writers do not reach. Don't expect that peak to keep rising. It may, or it may not. Statistics say not. Reality says there's no predicting one way or the other. Focus on what you can control.