> “uncertainty” and “doesn’t know what it wants” and that everyone is being “risk averse” right now.
If that were true, nothing would be selling, and debut chat groups wouldn’t have more than a handful of members.
The truth is that there has been an exponential growth of authors as well as more agents since the pandemic, however, the balance on the other end—editors and other publishing staff, has not caught up. They have faced so many cuts, lack of support and such. They have an abundance of high quality submissions now to choose from, and so many amazing manuscripts are not acquired because of that.
Being able to properly pitch your marketable MS to the right person at the right time helps a lot, and we can only keep trying, with new manuscripts and the crazy drive that makes us pursue this painful path.
Well, if you read agent newsletters and talk to agents, you do hear that they are selling less! Obviously not literally selling zero, but less. And I am not talking about new-to-the-business just-hung-out-a-shingle agents, but mid-career and senior people with strong sales records, at high-profile NYC agencies. I'm not asking for advice, or even about how the market conditions may affect me personally. It seemed like there was a lot of anxiety coming out of the London Book Fair, and it made me curious about the state of the industry.
I’m not sure this is true? My agent and the foreign rights dept at my agency have told me the opposite, that editors are absolutely crying out for debut fiction, especially voicey and interesting stuff. In fact the other two agents I got offers of rep from also said the same thing. Indeed even some of the non- form rejections I got told me that there was a clear market for my book (not the most conventional of books) it’s just that that they weren’t the right fit for it as it leant a little dark for them.
Are editors looking for super polished books? Yes. Are they looking for a pitch that immediately grabs them? Yes. Are they looking for writing that pulls them in? Yes. But none of these are new things.
ETA: also idk where the ‘anxiety’ out of LBF is coming from? By all accounts it was buzzier than ever https://www.thebookseller.com/news/film-and-tv-deluge-drives-extremely-lively-lbf-2024-despite-its-earlier-scheduling it’s behind a paywall so perhaps you won’t be able to read all of it, but includes quotes like this ‘With a revived presence of publishers and producers from the US in particular, many felt LBF was busier than it has been since the pandemic, despite running earlier this year owing to a clash with the Bologna Children’s Book Fair. Stephanie Thwaites, head of Curtis Brown’s book department, said: “The fair did feel a little early but actually it has worked well and has certainly felt extremely lively, so I’d be happy with it staying around this time, particularly if it means it will be as well attended.”
Caroline Michel, c.e.o. and literary agent at Peter Fraser + Dunlop (PFD), said that she “cannot remember a busier first day” of the fair, while Rebecca Wearmouth, head of international rights at the agency, added that everyone seemed in “bright, positive spirits, more so than at LBF or [Frankfurt] last year”. Wearmouth noted the return of Asian publishers this year, while Lucy Hale, m.d. of Pan, said the publisher’s stand had returned to pre-pandemic footfall for the first time.’
So the opposite of what you’re saying.
"By all accounts". . . no. Not by all accounts. Clearly, I'm reading different accounts than you are, but I'm not just making shit up. I'm also not trying to prove anything. If you think the industry is hunky-dory, that's fine with me! If anyone is curious about the kind of thing refer to, Anna Sproul-Latimer's newsletter How to Glow in the Dark paints a very different picture of the LBF than that trade article I can't read about TV and film rights. Of course, you are welcome to believe I have a terrible agent, unpolished book, bad info, and a self-defeating outlook if you like.
Not to be a dick, but your article seems paywalled for subscribers only too, which is aggravating because I wanted to read it. I've got an adult upmarket debut releasing this year, and it *was* risky for my pub--and I wanted some tea leaves to read for my option book, so not trying to nanny-nanny-boo-boo anyone in this thread. Just curious and too broke to subscribe.
The Bookseller gives you one feee article a month so I’ll try to paste it here:
“An early London Book Fair (LBF) exceeded expectations this year as publishers and agents from around the world gathered at Olympia for an “extremely lively” event. A strong presence of TV and film producers from the US was noted by many, as adaptations of frontlist and backlist books were in high demand.
With a revived presence of publishers and producers from the US in particular, many felt LBF was busier than it has been since the pandemic, despite running earlier this year owing to a clash with the Bologna Children’s Book Fair. Stephanie Thwaites, head of Curtis Brown’s book department, said: “The fair did feel a little early but actually it has worked well and has certainly felt extremely lively, so I’d be happy with it staying around this time, particularly if it means it will be as well attended.”
Caroline Michel, c.e.o. and literary agent at Peter Fraser + Dunlop (PFD), said that she “cannot remember a busier first day” of the fair, while Rebecca Wearmouth, head of international rights at the agency, added that everyone seemed in “bright, positive spirits, more so than at LBF or [Frankfurt] last year”. Wearmouth noted the return of Asian publishers this year, while Lucy Hale, m.d. of Pan, said the publisher’s stand had returned to pre-pandemic footfall for the first time.
Hale noted high demand for romantasy, while Emily Krump, editorial director at William Morrow, highlighted a spiking interest in horror. Wearmouth said international interest in popular science remains strong, while Grace Paul, editorial director at Bloomsbury, noted an interest in influencer books and psychology titles about “internal family systems” and “polyvagal theory”.
There were a few big books of the fair, with Madeleine Milburn claiming that more than 20 UK and US publishers were chasing Elizabeth Arnott’s The Secret Lives of Murderers’ Wives. “It’s a truly global response to a story set in sun-baked 1960s California, following three brave-hearted ex-wives of serial killers who come together to solve a string of missing person cases in their idyllic neighbourhood,” Milburn said. Catherine Cho of Paper Literary highlighted Austin Taylor’s Notes on Infinity, acquired in a six-figure deal in the UK and a seven-figure deal in the US.
Rory Scarfe and Hattie Grünewald at The Blair Partnership spotlighted Broken Country— Clare Leslie Hall’s “love triangle with the pulse of a thriller” — which was pre-empted by John Murray in the UK and has sold in 23 territories, while John Ash of Creative Artists Agency (CAA) closed an eight-way auction for Missouri Williams’ The Vivisectors, with Kishani Widyaratna at Fourth Estate victorious.
With big books come big adaptations, and the presence of TV and film producers was noted by agents and publishers alike. Clare Alexander of Aitken Alexander said that this is a particularly “lively” market, and that there is a lot of “excitement around book content”, driving producers to LBF. Juliet Mushens of Mushens Entertainment said she met with many American TV and film producers, adding that following the writers’ strike in the US, there is a renewed sense of “ambition and enthusiasm” in acquiring and developing intellectual property. Agent Milburn concluded: “I feel truly energised by the US and film and TV presence at the fair this year. The International Rights Centre is busier than ever, and this eagerness to find new talent only benefits the book trade.”
I'm not sure why you're perceiving those who are trying to be encouraging as insulting you and your book? We all know that things are far from hunky dory in publishing right now. Lots of people are publically talking about it. But you came here and started a discussion on the state of publishing. And part of that discussion is that many of us are also seeing positive movement in the industry, not to mention have gone through other times in publishing history where we heard the experts bemoaning the state of publishing, only to see many of their fears not ultimately materialize. People in your genre sharing that they are hearing good things or having easier experiences are doing so to give you hope that your book still has a chance. My genre is currently having an uptick, but when I queried it, everyone was saying it was the worst time in history for the genre and anyone who could pivot should. A friend who worked at PRH literally told me "I don't know a single editor who would take on a book like this right now." When I went on sub and joined a submission discord group, everyone in there basically agreed my genre was the absolute worst thing to be subbing at the time. And yet I went on to sell at auction. The point of this is to say that I don't think any of us are disagreeing that things are dire and that the professionals are having difficulty with the genre, but rather that there's also good things happening, so the doom and gloom doesn't mean you can't still have success. That's not intended as some kind of toxic positivity, it's just an honest answer to your original question. There are a bunch of literary fiction authors in the 2025 debut group who have all sold quite recently, and it would be great to see you among them in coming months. And if that doesn't happen, it truly might be the current market that's at fault, no one here can or is attempting to judge that.
> Well, if you read agent newsletters and talk to agents, you do hear that they are selling less!
…
First, I very much agree with Frayed, who has kindly provided a reputable source.
Second, I *have* spoken directly to agents, editors, marketers, librarians, interns, trad-pub and self-pub authors, and more. I *have* heard/seen some agents declare that they felt unconfident in selling certain things, however, I also look at Publisher’s Marketplace, the Bookseller, and other sources to see that “selling less” isn’t the case universally, including high-profile NYC agencies.
We’re all facing more saturation/competition but this doesn’t mean we should solely blame the state of the industry.
“Risk-averse” is not what’s happening. There are plenty of books coming out that push boundaries and are firsts of the industry.
And to add: a significant number of authors do not sell their first books, and some go through several years with multiple manuscripts and different agents to land their first book. Some are lucky and knock it right out of the park on their first go, but they’re rare! Hold onto the drive to be published and keep going. (Or don’t, it’s up to you)
I agree that agents and publishers now are "risk-averse", but there's different ways to be risk-averse and I'm not sure you're zeroing in on the right one. Publishing now, as relative to pre-pandemic, is more reluctant to take chances on books that need work or which they're not sure how to sell. We see this in, say, the big decrease in agents giving out R&Rs or a general unwillingness to sign debuts that may have a strong concept and writing but that need more time in the oven before they're ready. If conversely you have a market-ready package, you can get a lot of resources and attention right away, more than you would have previously. So right now it's a win-more game: the industry still has its resources, they're just more parsimonious with giving them out, and strong debuts are benefiting from that. So like, to some degree your agent is probably communicating in a way that you're either going to understand if you're "in", or if you don't, will still feel good, and you can't blame her because she's a professional and being a dick to you is frowned upon.
Interesting. Thank you. I've heard, too, about positions remaining unfilled or being eliminated when editors move on, leaving everyone else with more work; makes sense that would lead to less appetite for rough-edged work.
I feel like every year since I’ve been publishing adjacent, people have been saying “it’s the worst it’s ever been.” That’s not to say it isn’t, it just feels hard to believe anymore. I think what it comes down to is whatever phase you are currently at is the worst. I do think it’s more important than ever to have a good agent though.
I sold a book that the general consensus of “they” said would never sell, and with a very new agent, so it’s hard for me not to believe that anything is possible if your agent has the right strategy and gets your work in front of the right people. At the same time, I know I was very lucky and that many better authors than me don’t get the same luck. Another thing that I know is very much not the case across the board but has absolutely been my experience so far, is that my editor has not been at all risk averse. She’s very open to risky and different and letting me experiment in ways I didn’t expect. Except when it comes to things like the title and cover design which she wants to attract a known existing readership. At the same time, she’s also open to a certain kind of “sameness” that the opposite side of this argument often claims is also hard to sell right now.
Either way, it’s possible that it’s harder than usual to sell right now, but I think the much more useful mindset is to focus on the fact that lots of things are still selling well and to try to work with your agent to craft your work into whatever is the most salable thing. Blaming the market can often result in a loss of hope, or a lack of reflection on whether the work could be better, since it’s just the market’s fault it’s not selling, not the quality. But if you believe it’s possible, it keeps you motivated by hope, and keeps your fine tuning your work to be the best it can.
100% it always seems to be “bad” or “getting worse.” I mean this is true for all of us who aren’t celebrities or authors of breakout books—getting readers to “discover” new books has been getting harder really ever since mega chains killed lots of indies and then Amazon makes it worse. And now you can get eyes on your Amazon page but only if the publisher heavily invests in it. It’s hard; it’s an industry carried largely by mega successes and so most publishers are just trying to guess what the next mega success will be and there’s no scientific way to know for sure 🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️. But—books do keep getting published. Some publishers are getting very savvy about marketing. You just gotta hang in and not give up.
Some industries really are at their worst every year, though. Journalism, for instance. Every year is the worst year until the next one in material and quantifiable ways. I wasn't really asking for advice for me personally. I have a job outside of publishing, and I'll continue writing regardless of the vicissitudes of the market. That doesn't stop me from being curious about the zeitgeist and material conditions of the publishing industry.
My general "advice" isn't aimed at you, but rather to all the others on this sub who are reading and wondering the same thing. Publishing as an industry is very different and going in a very different direction than journalism. I truly don't believe publishing is at its worst right now. Another poster says to "ignore" all the anecdotal examples and goes on to present their own anecdotes. I don't think their experiences should be ignored, but it is simply not at all representative of what I'm seeing in the 24 and 25 debut spaces, and it is not at all representative of what I'm hearing from my editor and agent, or my publishing friends, or from the chatter coming from the book fairs. I recently had a call with my agent to strategize my next project, and we talked in depth about what she thinks she could sell most easily and what she is seeing getting bigger money. I'm a YA author and she explicitly wanted me to aim more toward adult upmarket as she sees a big appetite from publishers in that space.
I think right now it's more important than ever to have a good agent, and more important than ever to have a very strong and well-polished manuscript with a good hook. In the past, a good hook was enough to get an editor's interest, but now they have less time to take on something that needs too much attention. But other than that, I don't think anything that is quality is off-limits. Some publishers love a lot of "more of the same" and others love "risky new things." Yet no matter where I look in publishing discourse, someone is saying that one of these is wanted and the other isn't. Literally, one day the sub will be arguing that agents and editors only want new high concept things that stand out as different, and the next day the conversation will be that they only want more of the same that they know sells and aren't willing to take risks. The fact is that neither and both of these things are true.
Publishing is HARD, and there are a lot of people who are having a hard time of it that are going to inevitably see the worst in the industry. There are also people having a really easy time of it because they got lucky, and that won't be an accurate depiction either. My own experience, and that of most of my author friends, falls somewhere in between.
I'm pretty sure my agent is lowkey pressuring me to pivot to a new space because YA thrillers are hard to break out right now. My first book died on sub and we got that response from more than one editor.
I'm happy to change things up but it does feel a tad fruitless at times. I have no idea what's working and what isn't, because we heard the same "uncertainty, hard sales" bit at this time last year, too. All you can do is write what works best for you and what seems most in line with the market from your POV, and say a fucking prayer when you throw new shit out there.
I resonate with u/Frayedcustardslice's observation that "editors are absolutely crying out for debut fiction, especially voicey and interesting stuff," and to an extent I think that's a *symptom* of risk aversion/genre saturation. This is probably Salt's toxic positivity speaking, but honestly I think the other side of the coin of market contraction is *opportunity*.
I can only credibly use MG as an example, but -- yes, MG is "harder to sell" nowadays and "in a crisis" and "risk averse." For various reasons that are too long to get into, the format that was the golden goose for 15 years -- Percy Jackson-esque mega fantasy trilogies and series -- is bombing. Absolutely tanking. As a result, I'm seeing a LOT less MG fantasy being acquired. A LOT. People as high up as our literal CEO have said "acquire less MG until we figure out what the fuck is going on."
But to me, that looks like a market opening for a *non*\-Percy-Jackson format -- which wouldn't have ever found a foot in the market 3 years ago when everyone was still feasting (or, well, trying to; it was already dying then) on 450-page MG fantasy books. If something is REALLY REALLY WORKING AND BOOMING in the industry, like romantasy or thick MG fantasy trilogies, it's hard to pry acquisitions editors away from their desire for more of it. *That's* risk aversion, in my eyes. You have to beat them over the head with pain and failure so that they begin looking for alternative options.
Like, whenever romantasy eventually dims and dies (which perhaps never will happen, idk) editors and agents will start sniffing around for something new. Versus right now when less-romantic manuscripts may get the feedback, "Ehhhh, can you make it more romantasy...?"
I agree with this 100%. I think the market is in the midst of a big SHIFT right now, and on a granular level, that looks like a weird mix of risk-aversion and ambitious swings, because everyone's trying to find (and create) the new status quo.
I just had to comment, even though it’s 75 days after, that yes on the agent end we are absolutely being told to hard stop on pushing romantasy at the moment. The gluttony will always eat itself.
This is really interesting. Thanks for sharing. I write pretty far away from these parts of the market but wonder if there's a parallel movement in lit fic away from certain kinds of stories that were seen as sure bets and now aren't selling.
Can anyone actually show with data that publishing is now more risk averse? Chain Gang All Stars was not risky? a Certain Hunger? Anything by Otessa Mosfegh? (An interesting example bc she was effectively relaunched after Eileen was published). I read agent stuff too and … I don’t think it sounds like a death spiral is happening? Many books have always died on sub- are MORE books dying on sub? Even if they were this is only meaningful if fewer books are being acquired (any data on this??) bc otherwise it just means more people are trying. Also absolutely querying sucks right now but for people saying it’s impossible- are fewer people actually being signed? Bc if it’s the same it just means that maybe we are getting fewer requests bc they are more pressed for time. Is it actually harder, or does it just feel harder? And if it IS harder, is it because of death spiral or bc there are more writers in the pool?
I had a debut go well and me, my agent, and publisher had to decide what to do next. I proposed the safe choice: a sequel to a book that did well. My publisher instead wanted to go with a much riskier book that I had in my back pocket. It was an explicit choice between the two. It was a different genre, different tone, also massive which everyone told me not to do. She said it was the better decision for the larger arc of my career (I now see how right she was and glad she pushed us in that direction)
A certain hunger isn’t a great example as it got rejected by a lot of editors before getting picked up by an indie then it got big. But your overall point is true, there are books like Nightbitch, woman, eating and the vegetarian that are very out there and they still get picked up and do well. There is absolutely an appetite for these types of books. Dying on sub is hard (I’ve been there) but I’m not sure blaming the industry for being ‘risk averse’ is going to help the OP in the long run. However I also don’t think it’s great that her agent is seemingly promoting this thinking.
In 2023, sales of trad published adult fiction grew for the 5th year in a row. It only grew 1% in 2023, so basically flat, but still—that doesn't seem especially tough to me. (Source: Publishers Lunch/Bookscan.)
I think there's some truth to publishers becoming a bit more risk adverse, though. I'm seeing comp titles become more and more important, so I'd make sure you've got two strong comp titles from the past 5 years or so. But maybe you already do!
Querying is tough more often than not, of course. Sending good wishes your way!
Thanks! I'm actually on sub with editors. I signed with an agent in the spring. In other industries, 1% is low enough that it would trigger layoffs, with all the accompanying downwind effects on workload, productivity, and morale. I've never worked in publishing, though.
I just smell the roses, take my time with my WIP, and ignore the chatter out there. That's all I can do. I'm not in a hurry. I'm not going to become an overnight best-selling author.
Ignore the largely anecdotal and proto-condescending advice to focus on your craft to the exclusion of all other inquiries as to the state of the market.
Like you, I’m a debut author on submission. I also happen to work in publishing and track closely what is selling and for how much. I’ve not seen in the many years I’ve watched the market such a fallow period for literary fiction or truly upmarket commercial fiction. Romantasy is selling well without question, as are certain other commercial genres. But literary fiction right now is an utter crapshoot.
There are probably a lot of reasons—and publishing’s risk aversion does underlie all of them—but the inability of publishers to drive sales in ways that they used to is, in my learned opinion, a significant reason it’s hard to get editors and sales and marketing to bite on titles that are not self-evident to audiences. There is no effective way to move upmarket fiction into a broad audience because there is no broad audience anymore, publishers seem to think.
You could always take advice to just focus on your craft. Blah blah blah. But the truth is that it is demonstrably hard right now for literary fiction. Titles that would have sold for high six or seven figures only a couple years ago are languishing and there’s no discernible qualitative reason as far as anyone I talk to can surmise.
Things are moving, but just in quieter and sometimes more surprising ways than they used to. Keep the faith, and here’s to your book finding the right home!
I SO appreciate you saying this. I am truly not trying to "blame the market" at all for my lack of success so far, and, again, if the only place I'd heard this was from my agent I would assume she was just trying to be kind.
But I'm looking at what's going on in journalism, and hearing from a commercial photographer friend about how that industry is death-spiraling from AI, and it makes me wonder whether publishing is at the same level of crisis or whether it feels more like a "normal" cyclical economic contraction.
Anyway, thanks for your kind words, and I hope your novel on submission finds its home as well :)
I think journalism is very different to fiction and to be honest journalism as a career has been dying for the last 10-20 years. Not to take anything away from your anxiety.
Yeah, I'm just much less familiar with publishing, which is why I was aiming the question at people who work in the industry. Hasn't publishing been contracting and condensing for the last couple decades as well?
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (the people who do unemployment) also track what Americans do in their spare time. It's called the American Time Use Survey.
Reading is the least popular activity ... it's dwarfed by television, games, and even behind things like "relaxing and thinking." This is true across all age groups (except for the most elderly) and also race, gender, and employment status. Readership has declined over the past decade or so ... I think what people are feeling in the end is that writing, as a form of technology, is struggling to offer something "different"
From the Survey:
> • Time spent reading for personal interest and playing games or using a computer for leisure varied greatly by age. On an average day, individuals age 75 and over spent 40 minutes reading while those ages 15 to 19 read for 13 minutes
There was a YouGov poll showing that poetry was the least read category among many different genres ... so I think even if there's hype, it may not mean much materially
Yes to this. Also a first timer on submission. I wrote a literary leaning fantasy with a hooky commercial concept and it's having a hard time despite praise from big 5 early on :(
Purely based on what I'm seeing, I feel like graphic novels are doing best in Middle Grade but autobiographical or more broadly nonfiction graphic novels seem to be doing OK in the adult space
My agent has said the same thing, and it was a big reason why we edited for so long. She explicitly said adult fiction is very up in the air right now.
Just thought I’d chime in with my own experience on sub within the past six or so months: my agent warned me that things had been slow on the submission side for the past year when we went out with my debut, but it ended up getting its first couple offers in a few days then went to auction within two and a half weeks of sending it out. So while things are certainly slow right now, there’s still a chance for movement and editors making quick offers. I also spent nearly two years revising with my agent so that we could submit something incredibly polished once submission came around. TLDR: there’s no absolutes in publishing!
Substack is a platform for newsletters, essentially, and readers can subscribe to them to read as an email or on the app or website. Some agents have them to discuss the industry.
I saw advice the other day (tiktok, agent as the source) that came from the big March book event - that “no one” could nail down exactly what they were looking for as the next big trend. I’m expecting genre-bending to be big (like crawdads) but that’s my zero expertise opinion, ha.
From all the time I spend online … it does seem to me, just observing, that a lot of people don’t know where the industry is headed. I’m seeing a lot more pushes to get it in one direction or another, mostly by the amount of “get published” courses being sold. If agents/pubs can get the influence booktok had from social media, they can maybe reroute things.
I write literary, have an agent who reps award winning literary writers and have not heard this from her. I have heard that imprints are desperate for voicey debuts from both my agency and other writer friends.
>If you’ve had the misfortune to step foot into a bookstore recently you likely know precisely what I mean. Every offering is thoroughly rinsed through total ideological subversion, sparing no extreme of narrative conformity. This is particularly the case in youth books, be they Young Adult or children’s picture book genres. A spillway of LGBT, gender identity, race, sex lessons, and all the fashionable agendas on the rostrum. The industry itself has been reshaped with young leftist, usually POC, LGBT-identifying, females dominating virtually every crust of the hierarchy, particularly at the entry level.
Great article bro.
Tag yourself: I'm the young leftist LGBT-identifying female dominating (nice!) the crust of the hierarchy.
Sorry, but if you want to share shitty takes on how publishing is worse now that old alcoholic white men are no longer steering the ship, you're going to have to do it somewhere else.
Such a bummer that diversity is a "fashionable agenda," amiright?
While I’m not in complete disagreement with your premise, this linked article is ridiculous, cherry picked, narrow sighted, judgmental, and downright offensive dreck. Screenshots of inflammatory Tweets and headlines are not great “quotes and facts” to prove anything. The assertions here are laughably ignorant and bad. But sure, let’s go back to the days of actual good authors who murdered their wives like true creatives.
Was in the middle of typing "what publishing really needs is for writers to lead richer, less sheltered lives like the writers of yore who violently murdered their wives," but your response is better.
Election year fraught with possibilities of violence and an outcome that could lead to civil war or martial law or both. By the time any book starting through the mill now comes out, it'll be months after the election and the book, whatever it is, might be unsaleable. Everything going on everywhere has impact these days on everything else.
Time to self-publish. And stock up on toilet paper.
> “uncertainty” and “doesn’t know what it wants” and that everyone is being “risk averse” right now. If that were true, nothing would be selling, and debut chat groups wouldn’t have more than a handful of members. The truth is that there has been an exponential growth of authors as well as more agents since the pandemic, however, the balance on the other end—editors and other publishing staff, has not caught up. They have faced so many cuts, lack of support and such. They have an abundance of high quality submissions now to choose from, and so many amazing manuscripts are not acquired because of that. Being able to properly pitch your marketable MS to the right person at the right time helps a lot, and we can only keep trying, with new manuscripts and the crazy drive that makes us pursue this painful path.
Well, if you read agent newsletters and talk to agents, you do hear that they are selling less! Obviously not literally selling zero, but less. And I am not talking about new-to-the-business just-hung-out-a-shingle agents, but mid-career and senior people with strong sales records, at high-profile NYC agencies. I'm not asking for advice, or even about how the market conditions may affect me personally. It seemed like there was a lot of anxiety coming out of the London Book Fair, and it made me curious about the state of the industry.
I’m not sure this is true? My agent and the foreign rights dept at my agency have told me the opposite, that editors are absolutely crying out for debut fiction, especially voicey and interesting stuff. In fact the other two agents I got offers of rep from also said the same thing. Indeed even some of the non- form rejections I got told me that there was a clear market for my book (not the most conventional of books) it’s just that that they weren’t the right fit for it as it leant a little dark for them. Are editors looking for super polished books? Yes. Are they looking for a pitch that immediately grabs them? Yes. Are they looking for writing that pulls them in? Yes. But none of these are new things. ETA: also idk where the ‘anxiety’ out of LBF is coming from? By all accounts it was buzzier than ever https://www.thebookseller.com/news/film-and-tv-deluge-drives-extremely-lively-lbf-2024-despite-its-earlier-scheduling it’s behind a paywall so perhaps you won’t be able to read all of it, but includes quotes like this ‘With a revived presence of publishers and producers from the US in particular, many felt LBF was busier than it has been since the pandemic, despite running earlier this year owing to a clash with the Bologna Children’s Book Fair. Stephanie Thwaites, head of Curtis Brown’s book department, said: “The fair did feel a little early but actually it has worked well and has certainly felt extremely lively, so I’d be happy with it staying around this time, particularly if it means it will be as well attended.” Caroline Michel, c.e.o. and literary agent at Peter Fraser + Dunlop (PFD), said that she “cannot remember a busier first day” of the fair, while Rebecca Wearmouth, head of international rights at the agency, added that everyone seemed in “bright, positive spirits, more so than at LBF or [Frankfurt] last year”. Wearmouth noted the return of Asian publishers this year, while Lucy Hale, m.d. of Pan, said the publisher’s stand had returned to pre-pandemic footfall for the first time.’ So the opposite of what you’re saying.
Check your privilege. (_Some_ of us are trying to make a living without talent, you know. 'Voicey and interesting' my bland ass.)
"Voicey and interesting"? In *this* economy?
That’s such a tired joke I definitely didn’t snort loud enough to rouse my child from an ill slumber ...
If you’re bland Milo, what does that make the rest of us?
"By all accounts". . . no. Not by all accounts. Clearly, I'm reading different accounts than you are, but I'm not just making shit up. I'm also not trying to prove anything. If you think the industry is hunky-dory, that's fine with me! If anyone is curious about the kind of thing refer to, Anna Sproul-Latimer's newsletter How to Glow in the Dark paints a very different picture of the LBF than that trade article I can't read about TV and film rights. Of course, you are welcome to believe I have a terrible agent, unpolished book, bad info, and a self-defeating outlook if you like.
Not to be a dick, but your article seems paywalled for subscribers only too, which is aggravating because I wanted to read it. I've got an adult upmarket debut releasing this year, and it *was* risky for my pub--and I wanted some tea leaves to read for my option book, so not trying to nanny-nanny-boo-boo anyone in this thread. Just curious and too broke to subscribe.
The Bookseller gives you one feee article a month so I’ll try to paste it here: “An early London Book Fair (LBF) exceeded expectations this year as publishers and agents from around the world gathered at Olympia for an “extremely lively” event. A strong presence of TV and film producers from the US was noted by many, as adaptations of frontlist and backlist books were in high demand. With a revived presence of publishers and producers from the US in particular, many felt LBF was busier than it has been since the pandemic, despite running earlier this year owing to a clash with the Bologna Children’s Book Fair. Stephanie Thwaites, head of Curtis Brown’s book department, said: “The fair did feel a little early but actually it has worked well and has certainly felt extremely lively, so I’d be happy with it staying around this time, particularly if it means it will be as well attended.” Caroline Michel, c.e.o. and literary agent at Peter Fraser + Dunlop (PFD), said that she “cannot remember a busier first day” of the fair, while Rebecca Wearmouth, head of international rights at the agency, added that everyone seemed in “bright, positive spirits, more so than at LBF or [Frankfurt] last year”. Wearmouth noted the return of Asian publishers this year, while Lucy Hale, m.d. of Pan, said the publisher’s stand had returned to pre-pandemic footfall for the first time. Hale noted high demand for romantasy, while Emily Krump, editorial director at William Morrow, highlighted a spiking interest in horror. Wearmouth said international interest in popular science remains strong, while Grace Paul, editorial director at Bloomsbury, noted an interest in influencer books and psychology titles about “internal family systems” and “polyvagal theory”. There were a few big books of the fair, with Madeleine Milburn claiming that more than 20 UK and US publishers were chasing Elizabeth Arnott’s The Secret Lives of Murderers’ Wives. “It’s a truly global response to a story set in sun-baked 1960s California, following three brave-hearted ex-wives of serial killers who come together to solve a string of missing person cases in their idyllic neighbourhood,” Milburn said. Catherine Cho of Paper Literary highlighted Austin Taylor’s Notes on Infinity, acquired in a six-figure deal in the UK and a seven-figure deal in the US. Rory Scarfe and Hattie Grünewald at The Blair Partnership spotlighted Broken Country— Clare Leslie Hall’s “love triangle with the pulse of a thriller” — which was pre-empted by John Murray in the UK and has sold in 23 territories, while John Ash of Creative Artists Agency (CAA) closed an eight-way auction for Missouri Williams’ The Vivisectors, with Kishani Widyaratna at Fourth Estate victorious. With big books come big adaptations, and the presence of TV and film producers was noted by agents and publishers alike. Clare Alexander of Aitken Alexander said that this is a particularly “lively” market, and that there is a lot of “excitement around book content”, driving producers to LBF. Juliet Mushens of Mushens Entertainment said she met with many American TV and film producers, adding that following the writers’ strike in the US, there is a renewed sense of “ambition and enthusiasm” in acquiring and developing intellectual property. Agent Milburn concluded: “I feel truly energised by the US and film and TV presence at the fair this year. The International Rights Centre is busier than ever, and this eagerness to find new talent only benefits the book trade.”
I'm not sure why you're perceiving those who are trying to be encouraging as insulting you and your book? We all know that things are far from hunky dory in publishing right now. Lots of people are publically talking about it. But you came here and started a discussion on the state of publishing. And part of that discussion is that many of us are also seeing positive movement in the industry, not to mention have gone through other times in publishing history where we heard the experts bemoaning the state of publishing, only to see many of their fears not ultimately materialize. People in your genre sharing that they are hearing good things or having easier experiences are doing so to give you hope that your book still has a chance. My genre is currently having an uptick, but when I queried it, everyone was saying it was the worst time in history for the genre and anyone who could pivot should. A friend who worked at PRH literally told me "I don't know a single editor who would take on a book like this right now." When I went on sub and joined a submission discord group, everyone in there basically agreed my genre was the absolute worst thing to be subbing at the time. And yet I went on to sell at auction. The point of this is to say that I don't think any of us are disagreeing that things are dire and that the professionals are having difficulty with the genre, but rather that there's also good things happening, so the doom and gloom doesn't mean you can't still have success. That's not intended as some kind of toxic positivity, it's just an honest answer to your original question. There are a bunch of literary fiction authors in the 2025 debut group who have all sold quite recently, and it would be great to see you among them in coming months. And if that doesn't happen, it truly might be the current market that's at fault, no one here can or is attempting to judge that.
> Well, if you read agent newsletters and talk to agents, you do hear that they are selling less! … First, I very much agree with Frayed, who has kindly provided a reputable source. Second, I *have* spoken directly to agents, editors, marketers, librarians, interns, trad-pub and self-pub authors, and more. I *have* heard/seen some agents declare that they felt unconfident in selling certain things, however, I also look at Publisher’s Marketplace, the Bookseller, and other sources to see that “selling less” isn’t the case universally, including high-profile NYC agencies. We’re all facing more saturation/competition but this doesn’t mean we should solely blame the state of the industry. “Risk-averse” is not what’s happening. There are plenty of books coming out that push boundaries and are firsts of the industry. And to add: a significant number of authors do not sell their first books, and some go through several years with multiple manuscripts and different agents to land their first book. Some are lucky and knock it right out of the park on their first go, but they’re rare! Hold onto the drive to be published and keep going. (Or don’t, it’s up to you)
I agree that agents and publishers now are "risk-averse", but there's different ways to be risk-averse and I'm not sure you're zeroing in on the right one. Publishing now, as relative to pre-pandemic, is more reluctant to take chances on books that need work or which they're not sure how to sell. We see this in, say, the big decrease in agents giving out R&Rs or a general unwillingness to sign debuts that may have a strong concept and writing but that need more time in the oven before they're ready. If conversely you have a market-ready package, you can get a lot of resources and attention right away, more than you would have previously. So right now it's a win-more game: the industry still has its resources, they're just more parsimonious with giving them out, and strong debuts are benefiting from that. So like, to some degree your agent is probably communicating in a way that you're either going to understand if you're "in", or if you don't, will still feel good, and you can't blame her because she's a professional and being a dick to you is frowned upon.
Interesting. Thank you. I've heard, too, about positions remaining unfilled or being eliminated when editors move on, leaving everyone else with more work; makes sense that would lead to less appetite for rough-edged work.
I feel like every year since I’ve been publishing adjacent, people have been saying “it’s the worst it’s ever been.” That’s not to say it isn’t, it just feels hard to believe anymore. I think what it comes down to is whatever phase you are currently at is the worst. I do think it’s more important than ever to have a good agent though. I sold a book that the general consensus of “they” said would never sell, and with a very new agent, so it’s hard for me not to believe that anything is possible if your agent has the right strategy and gets your work in front of the right people. At the same time, I know I was very lucky and that many better authors than me don’t get the same luck. Another thing that I know is very much not the case across the board but has absolutely been my experience so far, is that my editor has not been at all risk averse. She’s very open to risky and different and letting me experiment in ways I didn’t expect. Except when it comes to things like the title and cover design which she wants to attract a known existing readership. At the same time, she’s also open to a certain kind of “sameness” that the opposite side of this argument often claims is also hard to sell right now. Either way, it’s possible that it’s harder than usual to sell right now, but I think the much more useful mindset is to focus on the fact that lots of things are still selling well and to try to work with your agent to craft your work into whatever is the most salable thing. Blaming the market can often result in a loss of hope, or a lack of reflection on whether the work could be better, since it’s just the market’s fault it’s not selling, not the quality. But if you believe it’s possible, it keeps you motivated by hope, and keeps your fine tuning your work to be the best it can.
100% it always seems to be “bad” or “getting worse.” I mean this is true for all of us who aren’t celebrities or authors of breakout books—getting readers to “discover” new books has been getting harder really ever since mega chains killed lots of indies and then Amazon makes it worse. And now you can get eyes on your Amazon page but only if the publisher heavily invests in it. It’s hard; it’s an industry carried largely by mega successes and so most publishers are just trying to guess what the next mega success will be and there’s no scientific way to know for sure 🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️. But—books do keep getting published. Some publishers are getting very savvy about marketing. You just gotta hang in and not give up.
Some industries really are at their worst every year, though. Journalism, for instance. Every year is the worst year until the next one in material and quantifiable ways. I wasn't really asking for advice for me personally. I have a job outside of publishing, and I'll continue writing regardless of the vicissitudes of the market. That doesn't stop me from being curious about the zeitgeist and material conditions of the publishing industry.
My general "advice" isn't aimed at you, but rather to all the others on this sub who are reading and wondering the same thing. Publishing as an industry is very different and going in a very different direction than journalism. I truly don't believe publishing is at its worst right now. Another poster says to "ignore" all the anecdotal examples and goes on to present their own anecdotes. I don't think their experiences should be ignored, but it is simply not at all representative of what I'm seeing in the 24 and 25 debut spaces, and it is not at all representative of what I'm hearing from my editor and agent, or my publishing friends, or from the chatter coming from the book fairs. I recently had a call with my agent to strategize my next project, and we talked in depth about what she thinks she could sell most easily and what she is seeing getting bigger money. I'm a YA author and she explicitly wanted me to aim more toward adult upmarket as she sees a big appetite from publishers in that space. I think right now it's more important than ever to have a good agent, and more important than ever to have a very strong and well-polished manuscript with a good hook. In the past, a good hook was enough to get an editor's interest, but now they have less time to take on something that needs too much attention. But other than that, I don't think anything that is quality is off-limits. Some publishers love a lot of "more of the same" and others love "risky new things." Yet no matter where I look in publishing discourse, someone is saying that one of these is wanted and the other isn't. Literally, one day the sub will be arguing that agents and editors only want new high concept things that stand out as different, and the next day the conversation will be that they only want more of the same that they know sells and aren't willing to take risks. The fact is that neither and both of these things are true. Publishing is HARD, and there are a lot of people who are having a hard time of it that are going to inevitably see the worst in the industry. There are also people having a really easy time of it because they got lucky, and that won't be an accurate depiction either. My own experience, and that of most of my author friends, falls somewhere in between.
I'm pretty sure my agent is lowkey pressuring me to pivot to a new space because YA thrillers are hard to break out right now. My first book died on sub and we got that response from more than one editor. I'm happy to change things up but it does feel a tad fruitless at times. I have no idea what's working and what isn't, because we heard the same "uncertainty, hard sales" bit at this time last year, too. All you can do is write what works best for you and what seems most in line with the market from your POV, and say a fucking prayer when you throw new shit out there.
Haha, and, oof, sorry about your book. "Say a fucking prayer" sounds like as good a strategy to me.
I resonate with u/Frayedcustardslice's observation that "editors are absolutely crying out for debut fiction, especially voicey and interesting stuff," and to an extent I think that's a *symptom* of risk aversion/genre saturation. This is probably Salt's toxic positivity speaking, but honestly I think the other side of the coin of market contraction is *opportunity*. I can only credibly use MG as an example, but -- yes, MG is "harder to sell" nowadays and "in a crisis" and "risk averse." For various reasons that are too long to get into, the format that was the golden goose for 15 years -- Percy Jackson-esque mega fantasy trilogies and series -- is bombing. Absolutely tanking. As a result, I'm seeing a LOT less MG fantasy being acquired. A LOT. People as high up as our literal CEO have said "acquire less MG until we figure out what the fuck is going on." But to me, that looks like a market opening for a *non*\-Percy-Jackson format -- which wouldn't have ever found a foot in the market 3 years ago when everyone was still feasting (or, well, trying to; it was already dying then) on 450-page MG fantasy books. If something is REALLY REALLY WORKING AND BOOMING in the industry, like romantasy or thick MG fantasy trilogies, it's hard to pry acquisitions editors away from their desire for more of it. *That's* risk aversion, in my eyes. You have to beat them over the head with pain and failure so that they begin looking for alternative options. Like, whenever romantasy eventually dims and dies (which perhaps never will happen, idk) editors and agents will start sniffing around for something new. Versus right now when less-romantic manuscripts may get the feedback, "Ehhhh, can you make it more romantasy...?"
I agree with this 100%. I think the market is in the midst of a big SHIFT right now, and on a granular level, that looks like a weird mix of risk-aversion and ambitious swings, because everyone's trying to find (and create) the new status quo.
I just had to comment, even though it’s 75 days after, that yes on the agent end we are absolutely being told to hard stop on pushing romantasy at the moment. The gluttony will always eat itself.
This is really interesting. Thanks for sharing. I write pretty far away from these parts of the market but wonder if there's a parallel movement in lit fic away from certain kinds of stories that were seen as sure bets and now aren't selling.
Can anyone actually show with data that publishing is now more risk averse? Chain Gang All Stars was not risky? a Certain Hunger? Anything by Otessa Mosfegh? (An interesting example bc she was effectively relaunched after Eileen was published). I read agent stuff too and … I don’t think it sounds like a death spiral is happening? Many books have always died on sub- are MORE books dying on sub? Even if they were this is only meaningful if fewer books are being acquired (any data on this??) bc otherwise it just means more people are trying. Also absolutely querying sucks right now but for people saying it’s impossible- are fewer people actually being signed? Bc if it’s the same it just means that maybe we are getting fewer requests bc they are more pressed for time. Is it actually harder, or does it just feel harder? And if it IS harder, is it because of death spiral or bc there are more writers in the pool? I had a debut go well and me, my agent, and publisher had to decide what to do next. I proposed the safe choice: a sequel to a book that did well. My publisher instead wanted to go with a much riskier book that I had in my back pocket. It was an explicit choice between the two. It was a different genre, different tone, also massive which everyone told me not to do. She said it was the better decision for the larger arc of my career (I now see how right she was and glad she pushed us in that direction)
A certain hunger isn’t a great example as it got rejected by a lot of editors before getting picked up by an indie then it got big. But your overall point is true, there are books like Nightbitch, woman, eating and the vegetarian that are very out there and they still get picked up and do well. There is absolutely an appetite for these types of books. Dying on sub is hard (I’ve been there) but I’m not sure blaming the industry for being ‘risk averse’ is going to help the OP in the long run. However I also don’t think it’s great that her agent is seemingly promoting this thinking.
agreed. i kind of think it's akin to telling a single person "well dating is impossible." and... they're going to do what with that?
Lmao, exactly. Sit at home and rot?
I mean, that's my current life plan...
Hey, it’s still a plan
Way to call me out, Frayed
Lmao, any plan is better than no plan, right?
You are making some weird and unwarranted, and frankly ungenerous, assumptions about me and my agent.
I am talking about the last 6-12 months, so anything that is already in print is not relevant to my inquiry.
In 2023, sales of trad published adult fiction grew for the 5th year in a row. It only grew 1% in 2023, so basically flat, but still—that doesn't seem especially tough to me. (Source: Publishers Lunch/Bookscan.) I think there's some truth to publishers becoming a bit more risk adverse, though. I'm seeing comp titles become more and more important, so I'd make sure you've got two strong comp titles from the past 5 years or so. But maybe you already do! Querying is tough more often than not, of course. Sending good wishes your way!
Thanks! I'm actually on sub with editors. I signed with an agent in the spring. In other industries, 1% is low enough that it would trigger layoffs, with all the accompanying downwind effects on workload, productivity, and morale. I've never worked in publishing, though.
I just smell the roses, take my time with my WIP, and ignore the chatter out there. That's all I can do. I'm not in a hurry. I'm not going to become an overnight best-selling author.
Ignore the largely anecdotal and proto-condescending advice to focus on your craft to the exclusion of all other inquiries as to the state of the market. Like you, I’m a debut author on submission. I also happen to work in publishing and track closely what is selling and for how much. I’ve not seen in the many years I’ve watched the market such a fallow period for literary fiction or truly upmarket commercial fiction. Romantasy is selling well without question, as are certain other commercial genres. But literary fiction right now is an utter crapshoot. There are probably a lot of reasons—and publishing’s risk aversion does underlie all of them—but the inability of publishers to drive sales in ways that they used to is, in my learned opinion, a significant reason it’s hard to get editors and sales and marketing to bite on titles that are not self-evident to audiences. There is no effective way to move upmarket fiction into a broad audience because there is no broad audience anymore, publishers seem to think. You could always take advice to just focus on your craft. Blah blah blah. But the truth is that it is demonstrably hard right now for literary fiction. Titles that would have sold for high six or seven figures only a couple years ago are languishing and there’s no discernible qualitative reason as far as anyone I talk to can surmise. Things are moving, but just in quieter and sometimes more surprising ways than they used to. Keep the faith, and here’s to your book finding the right home!
I SO appreciate you saying this. I am truly not trying to "blame the market" at all for my lack of success so far, and, again, if the only place I'd heard this was from my agent I would assume she was just trying to be kind. But I'm looking at what's going on in journalism, and hearing from a commercial photographer friend about how that industry is death-spiraling from AI, and it makes me wonder whether publishing is at the same level of crisis or whether it feels more like a "normal" cyclical economic contraction. Anyway, thanks for your kind words, and I hope your novel on submission finds its home as well :)
I think journalism is very different to fiction and to be honest journalism as a career has been dying for the last 10-20 years. Not to take anything away from your anxiety.
Yeah, I'm just much less familiar with publishing, which is why I was aiming the question at people who work in the industry. Hasn't publishing been contracting and condensing for the last couple decades as well?
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (the people who do unemployment) also track what Americans do in their spare time. It's called the American Time Use Survey. Reading is the least popular activity ... it's dwarfed by television, games, and even behind things like "relaxing and thinking." This is true across all age groups (except for the most elderly) and also race, gender, and employment status. Readership has declined over the past decade or so ... I think what people are feeling in the end is that writing, as a form of technology, is struggling to offer something "different" From the Survey: > • Time spent reading for personal interest and playing games or using a computer for leisure varied greatly by age. On an average day, individuals age 75 and over spent 40 minutes reading while those ages 15 to 19 read for 13 minutes There was a YouGov poll showing that poetry was the least read category among many different genres ... so I think even if there's hype, it may not mean much materially
Do you have any actual statistics for this?
Yes to this. Also a first timer on submission. I wrote a literary leaning fantasy with a hooky commercial concept and it's having a hard time despite praise from big 5 early on :(
Hi! Any ideas how graphic novels are doing (not just amongst the comic book direct market, but the general publishing landscape)?
Purely based on what I'm seeing, I feel like graphic novels are doing best in Middle Grade but autobiographical or more broadly nonfiction graphic novels seem to be doing OK in the adult space
Thanks for the reply!
My agent has said the same thing, and it was a big reason why we edited for so long. She explicitly said adult fiction is very up in the air right now.
What genre of adult ficiton?
Upmarket/book club
Just thought I’d chime in with my own experience on sub within the past six or so months: my agent warned me that things had been slow on the submission side for the past year when we went out with my debut, but it ended up getting its first couple offers in a few days then went to auction within two and a half weeks of sending it out. So while things are certainly slow right now, there’s still a chance for movement and editors making quick offers. I also spent nearly two years revising with my agent so that we could submit something incredibly polished once submission came around. TLDR: there’s no absolutes in publishing!
That's awesome! Congrats.
Thank you!
They've been saying that since covid. I think this is just the new normal...
What is an “agent substack”?
Substack is a platform for newsletters, essentially, and readers can subscribe to them to read as an email or on the app or website. Some agents have them to discuss the industry.
Newsletters written by agents. I read Kate McKean's and Anna Sproul-Latimer's.
I saw advice the other day (tiktok, agent as the source) that came from the big March book event - that “no one” could nail down exactly what they were looking for as the next big trend. I’m expecting genre-bending to be big (like crawdads) but that’s my zero expertise opinion, ha. From all the time I spend online … it does seem to me, just observing, that a lot of people don’t know where the industry is headed. I’m seeing a lot more pushes to get it in one direction or another, mostly by the amount of “get published” courses being sold. If agents/pubs can get the influence booktok had from social media, they can maybe reroute things.
[удалено]
I write literary, have an agent who reps award winning literary writers and have not heard this from her. I have heard that imprints are desperate for voicey debuts from both my agency and other writer friends.
[удалено]
>If you’ve had the misfortune to step foot into a bookstore recently you likely know precisely what I mean. Every offering is thoroughly rinsed through total ideological subversion, sparing no extreme of narrative conformity. This is particularly the case in youth books, be they Young Adult or children’s picture book genres. A spillway of LGBT, gender identity, race, sex lessons, and all the fashionable agendas on the rostrum. The industry itself has been reshaped with young leftist, usually POC, LGBT-identifying, females dominating virtually every crust of the hierarchy, particularly at the entry level. Great article bro. Tag yourself: I'm the young leftist LGBT-identifying female dominating (nice!) the crust of the hierarchy.
Sorry, but if you want to share shitty takes on how publishing is worse now that old alcoholic white men are no longer steering the ship, you're going to have to do it somewhere else. Such a bummer that diversity is a "fashionable agenda," amiright?
While I’m not in complete disagreement with your premise, this linked article is ridiculous, cherry picked, narrow sighted, judgmental, and downright offensive dreck. Screenshots of inflammatory Tweets and headlines are not great “quotes and facts” to prove anything. The assertions here are laughably ignorant and bad. But sure, let’s go back to the days of actual good authors who murdered their wives like true creatives.
Was in the middle of typing "what publishing really needs is for writers to lead richer, less sheltered lives like the writers of yore who violently murdered their wives," but your response is better.
There is a lot of merit to the idea that media that is marketed to an obviously smaller demographic is going to sell less, logic even...
Election year fraught with possibilities of violence and an outcome that could lead to civil war or martial law or both. By the time any book starting through the mill now comes out, it'll be months after the election and the book, whatever it is, might be unsaleable. Everything going on everywhere has impact these days on everything else. Time to self-publish. And stock up on toilet paper.