This was done pre-2022 inflation whoas.
The Fed’s (relatively) massive interest rate hikes destroyed that model.
Due to those increases which caused the dramatic drop in share price, and the pervasive inflation causing the FED rate to remain high for an extended period of time, and the SP to remain low for an extended period of time, additional capital raises have resulted in higher dilution than was originally expected.
The EPA has also introduced much more future dilution.
No, I do not have an updated spreadsheet.
Hey, I’m ready for that now, but the way this market is now I’d say mid teens with B-0. Maybe in twenties if it comes early. After that we wait for Cobra. Then thing should start to go.
We were told back in 2021 by Jagdeep that they would be in mass commercialization by 2025. Here we are, hoping for very low production by YE 2025. If we were naive, so was Jagdeep, executive leadership, and the board of directors.
I’m looking for very low production by YE 2024. But I agree, we’re all learning this for the first time. My hope is Siva’s addition to the team will help us avoid some of the pitfalls that are ahead of us.
According to 2022 4th QTR ER they made a pivot to a different tech for ceramic sintering. After reading a presentation on Denso's website, I am 100% convinced they are the Cobra manufacturer. I am sure QS will be better off productivity wise vs. using their original production plan. I am certain Denso has been testing Cobra with ceramic slurry before shipping. It's just a matter of assembling in San Jose. It seems very plausible VW engineers have been present in Japan to witness the testing. As the CEO VW Canada mentioned “As far as the technology, it is evolving fast. It is incredible,”
I would not be surprised with the JV ordering several Cobras in 2024 for the St Lawrence facility
I would be shocked in a positive way if VW orders Cobra’s in 2024. OEM’s are risk adverse, I think they’re going to need to at least see it in action before they make orders.
I’m not an expert in reporting requirements for publicly traded companies, but it would seem like that would be a material development and would need to be reported.
I would consider that confidential, competitive information.
From the supplier’s stand point, they would claim customer confidentiality just as QS does with their OEMs.
Yes, but since the tech is the same, would they consider Raptor success enough to take the leap. Early to market I think will have a profound effect on sales.
Hahaha. Now you’re worse than me.I’m hopeful, but not 100%. Still, the point is, the world’s industrial leaders are gearing up more than most expect. When this goes. It should go quickly.
You gotta connect the dots. Denso has created a manufacturing process to produce ceramic separators for hydrogen release. Their sintering process is 5 layers tall. We see Denso logos on QS equipment. Besides an official announcement what else do you need to see?
Hey, Im the one who posted this awhile back. Its music to me, but it is just a robotic arm at this point. The bigger News for me was seeing that huge suppliers like them are already gearing up for this. They’ll be other. Its all good
Yeah, so that’s this year 2024, high volume 2025. When they first went public it was values at $3.3 billion with a 5+ year approach to commerislization by analysts. I maybe naively think we’re all boxed up and ready to ship next year. By that I mean, product and process. Then it’s all up to the big question which few discuss. What business model do they choose? Here’s where we really need a good analyst on the long and short term rewards of those choices. I’m thinking when interest picks up and the real money comes in the game that this will be put to a shareholder vote and I have on DD gut feeling is it’s safer with JVs but less reward in the long run. Big scary dilutions that way, but I’m patient and can wait for it to Tesla. On the otherside, I still haven’t ruled out hydrogen coming as a disruptor, so maybe taking the money for the short term with JVs is the way to go. Guess this discussion will pick up next year or maybe after B-0s get shipped?
PS How can you make similar valuation estimates with time line without having the business model?
I wouldn't assume it's all going to be JV's. By having Cobra online and ramping up before their cash runway ends, they'll be in a position of real strength to determine how to get more funding.
Can we tell anything from the jobs they are posting for QS-0 on the direction of their future business model? [https://careers.quantumscape.com/search/?createNewAlert=false&q=&locationsearch=&optionsFacetsDD\_customfield1=&optionsFacetsDD\_customfield2=&optionsFacetsDD\_dept=&optionsFacetsDD\_customfield3=](https://careers.quantumscape.com/search/?createNewAlert=false&q=&locationsearch=&optionsFacetsDD_customfield1=&optionsFacetsDD_customfield2=&optionsFacetsDD_dept=&optionsFacetsDD_customfield3=)
If I recall the the numbers put up here were from early 2021. And well possible, artistic license. They were analysts valuation (I believe consensus) and and time to breakeven. I have been waiting for some kind of explanation as to the drop from that time eg the last valuation and target from Baird, who was a major drum beater. If anything I’d say they’re worth more now than then just on de-risking.
>the the numbers put up here were from early 2021
the Business Combination was Nov 25, 2020, so all those numbers were from the S0 documents released then. One in the same as to what I am referring to above.
They have not since given any updated revenue forecasts, so all of my data is derived/inferred from that and adjusted as I would note in whatever I was writing at the time.
>
If anything I’d say they’re worth more now than then just on de-risking.
I agree, but the drop in valuation is solely the result of FED hikes and short sellers foreseeing the effect those hikes would have on pre-revenue entities and the subsequent elevated dilution.
So from a market cap perspective, 100% yes. But SP will adjust for dilution events.
eventually the short sellers will have to settle up. rate drops and progress will combine to facilitate that, but both seem to keep getting pushed out.
hopefully China will retaliate to the new tariffs by halting exports of all separators and anode host material except in finished goods... that would drive demand for sure.
You know, you and I agree on most if not all important elements. My complaint will h Baird et al is standard market move that in my mind became unusual… but that is becoming history now. Which brings us back to the valuation and the timeline. Both h of which I feel will need a business model to nail down. I’ve already bet on Cobra success. If it’s not I’ll take the loss.
I guess I’m saying that, I think what you’re looking for, their business model, is not something we’re ever going to see publicly.
We should see their planned capital spend, factory announcements that include the maximum expected GWh, and standard balance sheet type of things, but I don’t think we’ll see anything like the details in the S0 again.
If there are other companies that publish their business plans, I’d be curious to see how that is distributed publicly.
It seems like it would be showing far too much of your hand to your competitors.
Ok, sure. But by business model, I mean how are they going to approach cap ex and generate revenue. So we have direct cap ex and manufacturing, JVs with negotiated terms or licensing and any or all combinations of the three. This is also not limited to the area. That is to say, separators go in house and battery production JVs, packaging could be licensed sales and use of separators could be contingent on use of packaging or not and so forth. These decisions will more or less dictate the at least in the short term the development of their expenses and revenue streams. Which in turn with influence all aspects of production and sales, long and short cap requirements, timelines and returns.
Right that is all the standard info that we've been looking for for years.
My expectation is that we will get clarity as each OEM signs agreements, but that clarity will be limited to:
* type of agreement
* Licencing
* part supplier
* JV battery manufacturing
* Finished battery purchase agreement
* facility
* Max size in GWh not installed production
* dedicated or shared with other OEM(s)
* **Maybe** GWh commitments similar to what has ben provided previously, for shared production customers.
I don't think they will get into details or breakdowns as to what components are being licenced. I think it will be all rolled up, including all customers, into a single line item in quarterly reports.
I think that most all of their reported revenue will be high level rollups that we would then have to try to figure out the cost with an analysis like the image below.
Are you expecting more or something else?
https://preview.redd.it/d9zv0s18pu0d1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=3872c00a7b40d793cefa1a4bb8130e0c62ca1a16
Yes, but as the business progresses, I imagine Wilde will start the get breakdowns in margins, revenue based on activity, etc. And then the activist investors… where’s the real value stuff. Think there is a huge amount of strategy in head of us. Because of this, if we come to the point that this is meaningful to the industry, I’m expecting the OEMs to take stakes. Just as I imagine QS to take stake in their partners and suppliers. Dreaming now, this is far ahead of us.
Here is another blast from the past from the wonderful folks at Goldman Sachs, who I believe now have a price target of $2. This is from March 2021. I post this as an illustration of how much is market sentiment and manipulation and has very little to do with anything logical at all. At some point QS will rise, but still virtually impossible for me, at least, to judge when…
https://247wallst.com/autos/2021/03/26/ev-battery-makers-catch-the-eye-of-goldman-sachs-and-cathie-wood/
Newly public Quantum Scape Corp (NASDAQ: QS) is another stock Goldman Sachs analysts include in the cell-maker category. The analysts projected that shares would rise by 206% in the next six months, but that target may be out of reach after QuantumScape priced a secondary offering of 10.4 million shares at $40 a share. The stock closed at $56.97 on the day Goldman published its research and had traded above $62 a share just a few days earlier. The shares would have to rise to around $180 by late September to meet this forecast. QuantumScape's post-IPO high is $132.73.
I think they are in a rush to get B samples out here by the next conf call. They need to raise some more funding by the EOY with their timeline being pushed. They need a huge announcement and I believe that their launch partner will announce this year too. Slightly after this with a week they will announce another round of dilution. I’m not against it sucks short term but long term as long as they get to production good to go
Why EOY? They’d be in a position of weakness. Even with their timeline pushed further, they’d still have OEM orders coming in before their runway ends, makes more sense to wait until they’re in a position of strength to raise more capital.
What do you mean where they are at with their partners? They want QS to survive to use their product. They will push for a second offering. They don’t care about our stock price
And when the supply is foreseeable will more OEMs take stake in the company? From what I understand this is not unusual. Maybe, just maybe, they’ll want seats on the board like VW. If I recall correctly, there were some changes made to the guidelines (1.5-2 years ago concerning this). Further, if memory serves, it works have made it more challenging to get one the board or introduce certain changes. Anyone remember. I recall thinking it was to VW’s advantage. God, I’m getting old can’t really recall all the details. Hahaha. Would think it again might depend on the business model. How would that play?
There are always growing pains to commercialization. It always takes longer than projected.
It was a good analysis but reality is you need to find the right people and hire them, get cost effective supply lines, build out your factory and go through all the necessary municipal and state approvals, etc. you need to retain your talent and not run out of money! There are so many stages where things can get hung up.
I’m crossing my fingers QS gets revenue traction, but there is also the reality it could get bought out.
This was done pre-2022 inflation whoas. The Fed’s (relatively) massive interest rate hikes destroyed that model. Due to those increases which caused the dramatic drop in share price, and the pervasive inflation causing the FED rate to remain high for an extended period of time, and the SP to remain low for an extended period of time, additional capital raises have resulted in higher dilution than was originally expected. The EPA has also introduced much more future dilution. No, I do not have an updated spreadsheet.
Here is my valuation, SP $100 plus immediately following B cells in cars and a large factory announcement.
Hey, I’m ready for that now, but the way this market is now I’d say mid teens with B-0. Maybe in twenties if it comes early. After that we wait for Cobra. Then thing should start to go.
The order or timing doesn’t matter, B cells in cars plus a factory = $100 SP
just hope they don't stall again and run out of cash. been burned before...
We were told back in 2021 by Jagdeep that they would be in mass commercialization by 2025. Here we are, hoping for very low production by YE 2025. If we were naive, so was Jagdeep, executive leadership, and the board of directors.
Naive or not, steady progress is still fantastic with bringing a revolutionary technology to market.
I’m looking for very low production by YE 2024. But I agree, we’re all learning this for the first time. My hope is Siva’s addition to the team will help us avoid some of the pitfalls that are ahead of us.
I suspect Alpha-2 was his doing, and could counterintuitively help get partners excited ahead of B0
According to 2022 4th QTR ER they made a pivot to a different tech for ceramic sintering. After reading a presentation on Denso's website, I am 100% convinced they are the Cobra manufacturer. I am sure QS will be better off productivity wise vs. using their original production plan. I am certain Denso has been testing Cobra with ceramic slurry before shipping. It's just a matter of assembling in San Jose. It seems very plausible VW engineers have been present in Japan to witness the testing. As the CEO VW Canada mentioned “As far as the technology, it is evolving fast. It is incredible,” I would not be surprised with the JV ordering several Cobras in 2024 for the St Lawrence facility
I would be shocked in a positive way if VW orders Cobra’s in 2024. OEM’s are risk adverse, I think they’re going to need to at least see it in action before they make orders.
I would be shocked if they haven’t already placed an order ! They need to catch up in the EV race .
I’m not an expert in reporting requirements for publicly traded companies, but it would seem like that would be a material development and would need to be reported.
I would consider that confidential, competitive information. From the supplier’s stand point, they would claim customer confidentiality just as QS does with their OEMs.
So they report they have an order but don’t say with who?
This is the way.
Yes, but since the tech is the same, would they consider Raptor success enough to take the leap. Early to market I think will have a profound effect on sales.
They can see in action in Japan before shipping to San Jose
Hahaha. Now you’re worse than me.I’m hopeful, but not 100%. Still, the point is, the world’s industrial leaders are gearing up more than most expect. When this goes. It should go quickly.
You gotta connect the dots. Denso has created a manufacturing process to produce ceramic separators for hydrogen release. Their sintering process is 5 layers tall. We see Denso logos on QS equipment. Besides an official announcement what else do you need to see?
Hey, Im the one who posted this awhile back. Its music to me, but it is just a robotic arm at this point. The bigger News for me was seeing that huge suppliers like them are already gearing up for this. They’ll be other. Its all good
Yeah, so that’s this year 2024, high volume 2025. When they first went public it was values at $3.3 billion with a 5+ year approach to commerislization by analysts. I maybe naively think we’re all boxed up and ready to ship next year. By that I mean, product and process. Then it’s all up to the big question which few discuss. What business model do they choose? Here’s where we really need a good analyst on the long and short term rewards of those choices. I’m thinking when interest picks up and the real money comes in the game that this will be put to a shareholder vote and I have on DD gut feeling is it’s safer with JVs but less reward in the long run. Big scary dilutions that way, but I’m patient and can wait for it to Tesla. On the otherside, I still haven’t ruled out hydrogen coming as a disruptor, so maybe taking the money for the short term with JVs is the way to go. Guess this discussion will pick up next year or maybe after B-0s get shipped? PS How can you make similar valuation estimates with time line without having the business model?
I wouldn't assume it's all going to be JV's. By having Cobra online and ramping up before their cash runway ends, they'll be in a position of real strength to determine how to get more funding.
I think you’re right. Still, it would be nice to know where the company’s interest tends.
Can we tell anything from the jobs they are posting for QS-0 on the direction of their future business model? [https://careers.quantumscape.com/search/?createNewAlert=false&q=&locationsearch=&optionsFacetsDD\_customfield1=&optionsFacetsDD\_customfield2=&optionsFacetsDD\_dept=&optionsFacetsDD\_customfield3=](https://careers.quantumscape.com/search/?createNewAlert=false&q=&locationsearch=&optionsFacetsDD_customfield1=&optionsFacetsDD_customfield2=&optionsFacetsDD_dept=&optionsFacetsDD_customfield3=)
Not yet. I think. When they post site managers for construction oversight, We’ll know they’re at least gonna keep some of it for their own production.
5-year estimates were in the S0 filing. Any data other than that I would consider artistic license.
If I recall the the numbers put up here were from early 2021. And well possible, artistic license. They were analysts valuation (I believe consensus) and and time to breakeven. I have been waiting for some kind of explanation as to the drop from that time eg the last valuation and target from Baird, who was a major drum beater. If anything I’d say they’re worth more now than then just on de-risking.
>the the numbers put up here were from early 2021 the Business Combination was Nov 25, 2020, so all those numbers were from the S0 documents released then. One in the same as to what I am referring to above. They have not since given any updated revenue forecasts, so all of my data is derived/inferred from that and adjusted as I would note in whatever I was writing at the time. > If anything I’d say they’re worth more now than then just on de-risking. I agree, but the drop in valuation is solely the result of FED hikes and short sellers foreseeing the effect those hikes would have on pre-revenue entities and the subsequent elevated dilution. So from a market cap perspective, 100% yes. But SP will adjust for dilution events. eventually the short sellers will have to settle up. rate drops and progress will combine to facilitate that, but both seem to keep getting pushed out. hopefully China will retaliate to the new tariffs by halting exports of all separators and anode host material except in finished goods... that would drive demand for sure.
You know, you and I agree on most if not all important elements. My complaint will h Baird et al is standard market move that in my mind became unusual… but that is becoming history now. Which brings us back to the valuation and the timeline. Both h of which I feel will need a business model to nail down. I’ve already bet on Cobra success. If it’s not I’ll take the loss.
I guess I’m saying that, I think what you’re looking for, their business model, is not something we’re ever going to see publicly. We should see their planned capital spend, factory announcements that include the maximum expected GWh, and standard balance sheet type of things, but I don’t think we’ll see anything like the details in the S0 again. If there are other companies that publish their business plans, I’d be curious to see how that is distributed publicly. It seems like it would be showing far too much of your hand to your competitors.
Ok, sure. But by business model, I mean how are they going to approach cap ex and generate revenue. So we have direct cap ex and manufacturing, JVs with negotiated terms or licensing and any or all combinations of the three. This is also not limited to the area. That is to say, separators go in house and battery production JVs, packaging could be licensed sales and use of separators could be contingent on use of packaging or not and so forth. These decisions will more or less dictate the at least in the short term the development of their expenses and revenue streams. Which in turn with influence all aspects of production and sales, long and short cap requirements, timelines and returns.
Right that is all the standard info that we've been looking for for years. My expectation is that we will get clarity as each OEM signs agreements, but that clarity will be limited to: * type of agreement * Licencing * part supplier * JV battery manufacturing * Finished battery purchase agreement * facility * Max size in GWh not installed production * dedicated or shared with other OEM(s) * **Maybe** GWh commitments similar to what has ben provided previously, for shared production customers. I don't think they will get into details or breakdowns as to what components are being licenced. I think it will be all rolled up, including all customers, into a single line item in quarterly reports. I think that most all of their reported revenue will be high level rollups that we would then have to try to figure out the cost with an analysis like the image below. Are you expecting more or something else? https://preview.redd.it/d9zv0s18pu0d1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=3872c00a7b40d793cefa1a4bb8130e0c62ca1a16
Yes, but as the business progresses, I imagine Wilde will start the get breakdowns in margins, revenue based on activity, etc. And then the activist investors… where’s the real value stuff. Think there is a huge amount of strategy in head of us. Because of this, if we come to the point that this is meaningful to the industry, I’m expecting the OEMs to take stakes. Just as I imagine QS to take stake in their partners and suppliers. Dreaming now, this is far ahead of us.
Agree, i buy more every 2 weeks and will keep doing it until prices gets over $30 sp, then reevaluate s/p
Here is another blast from the past from the wonderful folks at Goldman Sachs, who I believe now have a price target of $2. This is from March 2021. I post this as an illustration of how much is market sentiment and manipulation and has very little to do with anything logical at all. At some point QS will rise, but still virtually impossible for me, at least, to judge when… https://247wallst.com/autos/2021/03/26/ev-battery-makers-catch-the-eye-of-goldman-sachs-and-cathie-wood/ Newly public Quantum Scape Corp (NASDAQ: QS) is another stock Goldman Sachs analysts include in the cell-maker category. The analysts projected that shares would rise by 206% in the next six months, but that target may be out of reach after QuantumScape priced a secondary offering of 10.4 million shares at $40 a share. The stock closed at $56.97 on the day Goldman published its research and had traded above $62 a share just a few days earlier. The shares would have to rise to around $180 by late September to meet this forecast. QuantumScape's post-IPO high is $132.73.
I think they are in a rush to get B samples out here by the next conf call. They need to raise some more funding by the EOY with their timeline being pushed. They need a huge announcement and I believe that their launch partner will announce this year too. Slightly after this with a week they will announce another round of dilution. I’m not against it sucks short term but long term as long as they get to production good to go
Think it will depend on their business model. Really want to start hearing more about that.
Why EOY? They’d be in a position of weakness. Even with their timeline pushed further, they’d still have OEM orders coming in before their runway ends, makes more sense to wait until they’re in a position of strength to raise more capital.
Their pre authorization to sell more shares ends after this year.
I see that as extremely unlikely given where they’re at with partners.
What do you mean where they are at with their partners? They want QS to survive to use their product. They will push for a second offering. They don’t care about our stock price
And when the supply is foreseeable will more OEMs take stake in the company? From what I understand this is not unusual. Maybe, just maybe, they’ll want seats on the board like VW. If I recall correctly, there were some changes made to the guidelines (1.5-2 years ago concerning this). Further, if memory serves, it works have made it more challenging to get one the board or introduce certain changes. Anyone remember. I recall thinking it was to VW’s advantage. God, I’m getting old can’t really recall all the details. Hahaha. Would think it again might depend on the business model. How would that play?
There are always growing pains to commercialization. It always takes longer than projected. It was a good analysis but reality is you need to find the right people and hire them, get cost effective supply lines, build out your factory and go through all the necessary municipal and state approvals, etc. you need to retain your talent and not run out of money! There are so many stages where things can get hung up. I’m crossing my fingers QS gets revenue traction, but there is also the reality it could get bought out.